Thewesternmodelisbroken

PankajMishra

Sofar,the21stcenturyhasbeenarottenoneforthewesternmodel,accordingtoanewbook,
TheFourthRevolution,byJohnMicklethwaitandAdrianWooldridge.Thisseemsanextraordinary
admissionfromtwoeditorsoftheEconomist,theflagbearerofEnglishliberalism,whichhaslong
insistedthatthenonwestcouldonlyachieveprosperityandstabilitythroughwesternprescriptions.
Italmostobscuresthefactthatthe20thcenturywasblightedbythesamepathologiesthattoday
makethewesternmodelseemunworkable,andrenderitsferventadvocatesabitlost.Themost
violentcenturyinhumanhistory,itwashardlythebestadvertisementfortheblandfanaticsof
westerncivilisation,astheAmericantheologianReinholdNiebuhrcalledthemattheheightofthe
coldwar,whoregardthehighlycontingentachievementsofourcultureasthefinalformandnorm
ofhumanexistence.

Niebuhrwascritiquingafundamentalistcreedthathascolouredourviewoftheworldformorethan
acentury:thatwesterninstitutionsofthenationstateandliberaldemocracywillbegradually
generalisedaroundtheworld,andthattheaspiringmiddleclassescreatedbyindustrialcapitalism
willbringaboutaccountable,representativeandstablegovernmentsthateverysociety,inshort,is
destinedtoevolvejustasthewestdid.Criticsofthisteleologicalview,whichdefinesprogress
exclusivelyasdevelopmentalongwesternlines,havelongperceiveditsabsolutistnature.Secular
liberalism,theRussianthinkerAlexanderHerzencautionedasearlyas1862,isthefinalreligion,
thoughitschurchisnotoftheotherworldbutofthis.Butithashadmanypresumptivepopesand
encyclicals:fromthe19thcenturydreamofawesternisedworldlongchampionedbytheEconomist,
inwhichcapital,goods,jobsandpeoplefreelycirculate,toHenryLucesproclamationofan
Americancenturyoffreetrade,andmodernisationtheorytheattemptbyAmericancold
warriorstoseducethepostcolonialworldawayfromcommuniststylerevolutionandintothe
gradualistalternativeofconsumercapitalismanddemocracy.

Thecollapseofcommunistregimesin1989furtheremboldenedNiebuhrsblandfanatics.Theold
MarxistteleologywasretrofittedratherthandiscardedinFrancisFukuyamasinfluentialendof
historythesis,andcrudertheoriesabouttheinevitablemarchtoworldwideprosperityandstability
werevendedbysuchPanglossesofglobalisationasThomasFriedman.Arguingthatpeople
privilegedenoughtoconsumeMcDonaldsburgersdontgotowarwitheachother,theNewYork
TimescolumnistwasnotaloneinmixingoldfangledEurocentrismwithAmericancandoism,a
doctrinethatgrewfromAmericasuninterruptedgoodfortuneandunchallengedpowerinthe
centurybeforeSeptember2001.

Theterroristattacksof9/11brieflydisruptedcelebrationsofaworldglobalisedbycapitaland
consumption.Buttheshocktonaivemindsonlyfurtherentrenchedinthemtheintellectualhabitsof
thecoldwarthinkingthroughbinaryoppositionsoffreeandunfreeworldsandredoubledan
olddelusion:liberaldemocracy,conceivedbymodernisationtheoristsastheinevitablepreference
ofthebeneficiariesofcapitalism,couldnowbeimplantedbyforceinrecalcitrantsocieties.
InvocationsofanewlongstruggleagainstIslamofascismarousedmanysuperannuatedcold
warriorswhomissedtheideologicalcertaintiesofbattlingcommunism.Intellectualnarcissism
survived,andwasoftendeepenedby,therealisationthateconomicpowerhadbeguntoshiftfrom
thewest.TheChinese,whohadgotcapitalism,were,afterall,nowdownloadingwesternapps,
accordingtoNiallFerguson.Aslateas2008,FareedZakariadeclaredinhismuchcitedbook,The
PostAmericanWorld,thattheriseoftherestisaconsequenceofAmericanideasandactionsand
thattheworldisgoingAmericasway,withcountriesbecomingmoreopen,marketfriendlyand
democratic.

Aworldinflames

Oneeventafteranotherinrecentmonthshascruellyexposedsuchfacilenarratives.China,though
marketfriendly,looksfurtherfromdemocracythanbefore.Theexperimentwithfreemarket
capitalisminRussiahasentrenchedakleptocraticregimewithamessianicbeliefinRussian
supremacism.Authoritarianleaders,antidemocraticbacklashesandrightwingextremismdefinethe
politicsofevensuchostensiblydemocraticcountriesasIndia,Israel,SriLanka,ThailandandTurkey.

Theatrocitiesofthissummerinparticularhaveplungedpoliticalandmediaelitesinthewestinto
stunnedbewildermentandsometrulydesperatecliches.Theextraordinaryhegemonicpowerof
theirideashadhelpedthemescaperadicalexaminationwhentheworldcouldstillbepresentedas
goingAmericasway.Buttheirpreferredimageofthewesttheidealisedoneinwhichtheysought
toremaketherestoftheworldhasbeenconsistentlychallengedbymanycritics,leftorright,in
thewestaswellastheeast.

Herzenwasalreadywarninginthe19thcenturythatourclassicignoranceofthewesternEuropean
willbeproductiveofagreatdealofharm;racialhatredandbloodycollisionswilldevelopfromit.
HerzenwasscepticalofthoseliberalwesterniserswhobelievedthatRussiacouldprogressonlyby
diligentlyemulatingwesterninstitutionsandideologies.Intimateexperienceandknowledgeof
EuropeduringhislongexiletherehadconvincedhimthatEuropeandominance,arrivedatafter
muchfratricidalviolenceandunderpinnedbymuchintellectualdeceptionandselfdeception,did
notamounttoprogress.Herzen,abelieverinculturalpluralism,askedaquestionthatrarely
occurstotodayswesternisers:Whyshouldanationthathasdevelopedinitsownway,under
completelydifferentconditionsfromthoseofthewestEuropeanstates,withdifferentelementsin
itslife,livethroughtheEuropeanpast,andthat,too,whenitknowsperfectlywellwhatthatpast
leadsto?

ThebrutalitythatHerzensawasunderpinningEuropesprogressturnedout,inthenextcentury,to
beamerepreludetothebiggestbloodbathinhistory:twoworldwars,andferociousethnic
cleansingthatclaimedtensofmillionsofvictims.TheimperativetoemulateEuropesprogresswas
neverthelessembracedbytherulingelitesofdozensofnewnationstatesthatemergedfromthe
ruinsofEuropeanempiresinthemid20thcentury,andembarkedonafantasticquestforwestern
stylewealthandpower.Today,racialhatredandbloodycollisionsravagetheworldwhereliberal
democracyandcapitalismwereexpectedtojointlyreign.

ThismomentdemandsafreshinterrogationofwhatNeibuhreuphemisticallycalledthehighly
contingentachievementsofthewest,andcloserattentiontothevariedhistoriesofthenonwest.
Instead,themostcommonresponsetothepresentcrisishasbeendespairoverwesternweakness
andmuchacrimonyoverwhatBarackObama,presidentofthesolesuperpowerandthe
indispensablenationshouldhavedonetofixit.WilltheWestWin?Prospectasksonthecover
ofitslatestissue,underliningtheforlornnessofthequestionwithapictureofHenryKissinger,
whosecomplicityinvariousmurderousfiascosfromVietnamtoIraqhasnotpreventedhisre
incarnationamongtheperplexedasasageofhardheadedrealism.

RobertKagan,writingintheWallStreetJournalatthestartofSeptember,articulatedadefiant
neoconservativefaiththatAmericaiscondemnedtousehardpoweragainsttheenemiesofliberal
modernitywhounderstandnootherlanguage,suchasJapanandGermanyintheearly20thcentury,
andPutinsRussiatoday.Kagandoesntsaywhichmanifestationofhardpowerfirebombing
Germany,nukingJapan,napalmingVietnamtheUnitedStatesshouldaimagainstRussia,orifthe
shockandawecampaignthathecheerledinIraqisabettertemplate.RogerCohenoftheNewYork
Timesprovidesamildervariationontheclashofcivilisationsdiscoursewhenhelamentsthat
Europeannationswithpopulationsfromformercoloniesoftenseemunabletocelebratetheir
valuesoffreedom,democracyandtheruleoflaw.

Suchdiehardbelieversinthewestscapacitytoshapeglobaleventsandcongratulateitselfeternally
wereafflictedwithanobsoleteassumptionevenin1989:thatthe20thcenturywasdefinedbythe
battlesbetweenliberaldemocracyandtotalitarianideologies,suchasfascismandcommunism.
Theirobsessionwithalargelyintrawesterndisputeobscuredthefactthatthemostsignificantevent
ofthe20thcenturywasdecolonisation,andtheemergenceofnewnationstatesacrossAsiaand
Africa.Theybarelyregisteredthefactthatliberaldemocracieswereexperiencedasruthlessly
imperialistbytheircolonialsubjects.

Forpeopleluxuriatingatahighlevelofabstraction,andaccustomedtodealingduringthecoldwar
withnationstatesorganisedsimplyintoblocsandsuperblocs,itwasalwaystooinconvenientto
examinewhetherthefreshlyimaginedcommunitiesofAsiaandAfricawereinnatelystrongand
cohesiveenoughtowithholdthestrainsanddivisionsofstatebuildingandeconomicgrowth.Ifthey
hadindeedriskedengagingwithcomplexityandcontradiction,theywouldhavefoundthattheurge
tobeawealthyandpowerfulnationstatealongwesternlinesinitiallyorderedandthendisordered
firstRussia,GermanyandJapan,andthen,inourowntime,plungedavastswathofthepostcolonial
worldintobloodyconflict.

Historyslongtermlosers

Thetemptationtoimitatetheevidentlytriumphantwesternmodel,asHerzenfeared,wasalways
greaterthantheurgetorejectit.FormanyintheoldandsophisticatedsocietiesofAsiaandAfrica,
chafingunderthedominationofwesternEuropesverysmallcountries,itseemedclearthathuman
beingscouldmusterupanunprecedentedcollectivepowerthroughnewEuropeanformsof
organisationlikethenationstateandtheindustrialisedeconomy.MuchofEuropehadfirstlearned
thisharshlessoninpoliticalandmilitaryinnovationfromNapoleonsallconqueringarmy.Inthe
centuryaftertheNapoleonicwars,Europeansocietiesgraduallylearnedhowtodeployeffectivelya
modernmilitary,technology,railways,roads,judicialandeducationalsystemsandcreateafeelingof
belongingandsolidarity,mostoftenbyidentifyingdangerousenemieswithinandwithout.

AsEugenWebershowedinhisclassicbookPeasantsintoFrenchmen(1976),thiswasauniformly
brutalprocessinFranceitself.MuchofEuropethenwentontosufferwidespreaddispossession,the
destructionofregionallanguagesandcultures,andtheinstitutionalisationofhoaryprejudiceslike
antisemitism.The19thcenturysmostsensitiveminds,fromKierkegaardtoRuskin,recoiledfrom
suchmodernisation,thoughtheydidnotalwaysknowthedarkersideofit:rapaciousEuropean
colonialisminAsiaandAfrica.Bythe1940s,competitivenationalismsinEuropestoodimplicatedin
themostviciouswarsandcrimesagainstreligiousandethnicminoritieswitnessedinhumanhistory.
Afterthesecondworldwar,EuropeancountriesunderAmericanauspicesandthepressuresofthe
coldwarwereforcedtoimaginelessantagonisticpoliticalandeconomicrelations,which
eventuallyresultedintheEuropeanUnion.

ButthenewnationstatesinAsiaandAfricahadalreadystartedontheirownfraughtjourneyto
modernity,ridingroughshodoverethnicandreligiousdiversityandolderwaysoflife.Asiansand
Africanseducatedinwesternstyleinstitutionsdespairedoftheirtraditionalistelitesasmuchasthey
resentedEuropeandominanceovertheirsocieties.Theysoughttruepowerandsovereigntyina
worldofpowerfulnationstateswhataloneseemedtoguaranteethemandtheirpeoplesafair
chanceatstrength,equalityanddignityinthewhitemansworld.InthisquestChinasMaoZedong
andTurkeysMustafaKemalAtatrkasmuchasIransdemocraticallyelectedprimeminister
MohammedMossadeghfollowedthewesternmodelofmassmobilisationandstatebuilding.

BythenEuropeanandAmericandominanceovertheworldseconomiesandpeopleshad,asthe
CambridgehistorianChristopherBaylywritesinTheBirthoftheModernWorld,turnedalargepart
ofhumanityintolongtermlosersinthescrambleforresourcesanddignity.Nevertheless,the
explicitlydefinedaimofAsiaandAfricasfirstnationalisticons,whotendedtobesocialistand
secular(Atatrk,Nehru,Nasser,Nkrumah,Mao,andSukarno),wascatchupwiththewest.Recent
rulingclassesofthenonwesthavelookedtoMcKinseyratherthanMarxtohelpdefinetheir
socioeconomicfuture;buttheyhavenotdaredtoalterthefoundingbasisoftheirlegitimacyas
modernisersleadingtheircountriestoconvergencewiththewestandattainmentofEuropean
andAmericanlivingstandards.Asitturnsout,thelatecomerstomodernity,dumpingprotectionist
socialismforglobalcapitalism,havegottheirtimingwrongagain.

Inthe21stcenturythatoldspellofuniversalprogressthroughwesternideologiessocialismand
capitalismhasbeendecisivelybroken.Ifweareappalledanddumbfoundedbyaworldinflamesit
isbecausewehavebeenlivingintheeastandsouthaswellaswestandnorthwithvanitiesand
illusions:thatAsianandAfricansocietieswouldbecome,likeEurope,moresecularand
instrumentallyrationalaseconomicgrowthaccelerated;thatwithsocialismdeadandburied,free
marketswouldguaranteerapideconomicgrowthandworldwideprosperity.Whatthesefantasiesof
invertedHegelianismalwaysdisguisedwasasoberingfact:thatthedynamicsandspecificfeatures
ofwesternprogresswerenotandcouldnotbereplicatedorcorrectlysequencedinthenonwest.

TheenablingconditionsofEuropes19thcenturysuccesssmall,relativelyhomogenous
populations,ortheabilitytosendsurpluspopulationsabroadassoldiers,merchantsand
missionariesweremissinginthelargeandpopulouscountriesofAsiaandAfrica.Furthermore,
imperialismhaddeprivedthem,asBasilDavidsonarguedinTheBlackMansBurden:Africaandthe
CurseoftheNationState,oftheresourcestopursuewesternstyleeconomicdevelopment;ithad
alsoimposedruinousideologiesandinstitutionsuponsocietiesthathaddeveloped,overcenturies,
theirownviablepoliticalunitsandsocialstructures.

Recklesslyexportedworldwideeventoday,thewestssuccessfulformulashavecontinuedtocause
muchinvisiblesuffering.Whatmayhavebeentherightfitfor19thcenturycolonialistsincountries
withendlessresourcescannotsecureastablefutureforIndia,China,andotherlatearrivalstothe
modernworld,whichcanonlycolonisetheirownterritoriesanduproottheirownindigenous
peoplesinthesearchforvaluablecommoditiesandresources.

Theresultisendlessinsurgenciesandcounterinsurgencies,warsandmassacres,theriseofsuch
bizarreanachronismsandnoveltiesasMaoistguerrillasinIndiaandselfimmolatingmonksinTibet,
theincreasedattractionofunemployedandunemployableyouthtoextremistorganisations,andthe
endlessmiserythatprovokesthousandsofdesperateAsiansandAfricanstomaketheriskyjourney
towhattheyseeasthecentreofsuccessfulmodernity.

Itshouldbenosurprisethatreligioninthenonwesternworldhasfailedtodisappearunderthe
juggernautofindustrialcapitalism,orthatliberaldemocracyfindsitsmostdedicatedsaboteurs
amongthenewmiddleclasses.Thepoliticalandeconomicinstitutionsandideologiesofwestern
EuropeandtheUnitedStateshadbeenforgedbyspecificeventsrevoltsagainstclericalauthority,
industrialinnovations,capitalistconsolidationthroughcolonialconquestthatdidnotoccur
elsewhere.SoformalreligionnotonlyIslam,Hinduism,Judaism,andtheRussianOrthodoxChurch,
butalsosuchquietistreligionsasBuddhismisactuallynowincreasinglyalliedwithratherthan
detachedfromstatepower.Themiddleclasses,whetherinIndia,Thailand,TurkeyorEgypt,betraya
greaterlikingforauthoritarianleadersandevenuniformeddespotsthanfortheruleoflawand
socialjustice.

Theatrocitiesofthissummerhaveplungedpoliticalandmediaelitesinthewestintostunned
bewilderment

Butthenwesternideologuesduringthecoldwarabsurdlyprettifiedtheriseofthedemocratic
west.Thelongstruggleagainstcommunism,whichclaimedsuperiormoralvirtue,requiredmany
expedientfeints.Andsothecenturiesofcivilwar,imperialconquest,brutalexploitation,and
genocideweresuppressedinaccountsthatshowedhowwesternersmadethemodernworld,and
becamewiththeirliberaldemocraciesthesuperiorpeopleeveryoneelseoughttocatchupwith.All
ofthewesternnations,JamesBaldwinwarnedduringthecoldwarin1963,arecaughtinalie,the
lieoftheirpretendedhumanism;thismeansthattheirhistoryhasnomoraljustification,andthe
westhasnomoralauthority.ThedeceptionthatanAfricanAmericaneasilydivinedhascontinued,
nevertheless,toenjoypoliticalsupportandintellectualrespectabilitylongaftertheendofthecold
war.

ThustheeditorsoftheEconomistelideinTheFourthRevolutionthehistoryofmassslaughterinthe
westitselfthatledtothemodernnationstate:thereligiouswarsofthe17thcentury,theterrorof
Frenchrevolutions,theNapoleonicwars,theFrancoPrussianwarandthewarsofItalianunification,
amongothers.MainstreamAngloAmericanwriterswhovendpopularexplanationsofhowthewest
madethemodernworldveerbetweenintellectualequivocationandinsoucianceaboutthewests
comparativeadvantageofcolonialism,slaveryandindenturedlabour.Wecannotpretend,
Fergusonavers,thatthemobilisationofcheapandprobablyunderemployedAsianlabourtogrow
rubberanddiggoldhadnoeconomicvalue.ArecentreviewintheEconomistofahistory
explainingthecompactbetweencapitalismandslaveryproteststhatalmostalltheblacksinthe
bookarevictims,andalmostallthewhitesvillains.

Understandably,historyhastobebalancedforDavosMen,whocannotbeartoomuchrealityin
theireffervescentprognosesofconvergencebetweenthewestandtherest.Butobscuringthe
monstrouscostsofthewestsownprogressdestroysanypossibilityofexplainingtheproliferation
oflargescaleviolenceintheworldtoday,letalongfindingawaytocontainit.Evasions,
suppressionsanddownrightfalsehoodshaveresulted,overtime,inamassivestoreofdefective
knowledgeanignorancethatHerzencorrectlyfearedtobeperniciousaboutthewestandthe
nonwestalike.Simplemindedandmisleadingideasandassumptions,drawnfromthisblinkered
history,todayshapethespeechesofwesternstatesmen,thinktankreportsandnewspapereditorials,
whilesupplyingfueltocountlesslogrollingcolumnists,TVpunditsandterrorismexperts.

Thepriceofprogress

Afaithinthewestssuperiorityhasnotalwaysbeenanobstacletounderstandingthetormented
processofmodernisationintherestoftheworld,astheFrenchanticommunistRaymondAron
demonstratedinbookslikeProgressandDisillusion(1968)andTheOpiumoftheIntellectuals(1955).
Aronbelievedthewestmadethemodernworldwithitspoliticalandeconomicinnovationsand
materialgoals,butdidnotflinchfromexaminingwhatthisfactreallyauguredaboutthemodern
world.Ashesawit,theconflictsandcontradictionsthrownupbythepursuitofmodernityhadbeen
hardenoughtomanageforwesternsocietiesformuchofthelastcentury.Industrialsocietiesalone
hadseemedabletoimprovematerialconditions,andbringaboutameasureofsocialandeconomic
equality;butthepromiseofequality,whichstavedoffsocialunrest,wasincreasinglydifficultto
fulfillbecausespecialisationkeptproducingfreshhierarchies.

Somepartsofthewesthadachievedsomereductioninmaterialinequalities,duetoamarket
economywhichproducedbothdesirablegoodsandthemeanstoacquirethem;organisedlabour,
whichmadeitpossibleforworkerstodemandhigherwages;andpoliticalliberty,whichmadethe
rulersaccountabletotheruled.Andsomewesterncountrieshadalso,howeverbrutally,gotthe
sequencingbroadlyright:theyhadmanagedtobuildresilientstatesbeforetryingtoturnpeasants
intocitizens.(WehavemadeItaly;nowwemustmaketheItalians,theItaliannationalistMassimo
dAzegliofamouslyproclaimedin1860.)ThemostsuccessfulEuropeanstateshadalsoaccomplished
ameasureofeconomicgrowthbeforegraduallyextendingdemocraticrightstoamajorityofthe
population.NoEuropeancountry,Aronpointedout,everwentthroughthephaseofeconomic
developmentwhichIndiaandChinaarenowexperiencing,underaregimethatwasrepresentative
anddemocratic.NowhereinEurope,hewroteinTheOpiumofIntellectuals,duringthelongyears
whenindustrialpopulationsweregrowingrapidly,factorychimneysloomingupoverthesuburbs
andrailwaysandbridgesbeingconstructed,werepersonalliberties,universalsuffrageandthe
parliamentarysystemcombined.

Countriesoutsidethewest,however,facedsimultaneouslythearduoustasksofestablishingstrong
nationstatesandviableeconomies,andsatisfyingthedemandsfordignityandequalityoffreshly
politicisedpeoples.Thismadetheimportationofwesternmeasuresandtechniquesofsuccessin
placesthathavenotyetemergedfromfeudalpovertyanunprecedentedandperilousexperiment.
TravellingthroughAsiaandAfricainthe1950s,Arondiscernedthepotentialforauthoritarianismas
wellasdarkchaos.

Therewerenotmanypoliticalchoicesbeforesocietiesthathadlosttheiroldtraditionalsourcesof
authoritywhileembarkingontheadventureofbuildingnewnationstatesandindustrialeconomies
inasecularandmaterialistethos.Theserationalisedsocieties,constitutedbyindividualsandtheir
desires,hadtoeitherbuildasocialandpoliticalconsensusthemselvesorhaveitimposedonthem
byastrongman.Failurewouldplungethemintoviolentanarchy.

Aronwasnovulgarcandoist.Americanindividualism,theproductofashorthistoryofunrepeatable
nationalsuccess,inhisview,spreadsunlimitedoptimism,denigratesthepast,andencouragesthe
adoptionofinstitutionswhichareinthemselvesdestructiveofthecollectiveunity.Norwashea
partisanofthebloodsplatteredFrenchrevolutionarytradition,whichrequirespeopletosubmitto
thestrictestdisciplineinthenameoftheultimatefreedomwhoselatestincarnationisIsisandits
attempttoconstructanutopianIslamicStatethroughareignofterror.

Thestateundersiege

Appliedtothemanynationstatesthatemergedinthemid20thcentury,Aronssombreanalysiscan
onlyembarrassthosewhohavebeendaydreamingsince1989aboutaworldwideupsurgeofliberal
democracyintandemwithcapitalism.Indeed,longbeforetheriseofEuropeantotalitarianisms,
urgentstatebuildingandthesearchforrapidandhigheconomicgrowthhaddoomedindividual
libertiestoaprecariousexistenceinJapan.Singapore,Taiwan,MalaysiaandSouthKoreawentonto
show,after1945,thataflourishingcapitalisteconomyalwayswascompatiblewiththedenialof
democraticrights.

Chinahasmorerecentlyachievedaformofcapitalistmodernitywithoutembracingliberal
democracy.Turkeynowenjoyseconomicgrowthaswellasregularelections;butthesehavenot
madethecountrybreakwithlongdecadesofauthoritarianrule.ThearrivalofAnatolianmassesin
politicshasactuallyenabledademagoguelikeErdoantoimaginehimselfasasecondAtatrk.

Turkey,however,mayhavebeenrelativelyfortunateinbeingabletobuildamodernstateoutofthe
ruinsoftheOttomanempire.Disorderwasthefateofmanynewnationsthathadbeeninsufficiently
ortoofervidlyimagined,suchasMyanmarandPakistan;theirweakstatestructuresandfragmented
civilsocietyhavecondemnedthemtooscillateperenniallybetweencivilianandmilitarydespots
whilewardingoffchallengesfromdisaffectedminoritiesandreligiousfanatics.UntiltheArabspring,
ruthlessdespotskeptalidonsectariananimositiesinthenationstatescarvedoutoftheOttoman
empire.Today,astheshatteringofIraq,LibyaandSyriareveals,despotism,farfrombeingabulwark
againstmilitantdisaffection,isaneffectivefurnaceforit.

Countriesthatmanagedtorebuildcommandingstatestructuresafterpopularnationalist
revolutionssuchasChina,Vietnam,andIranlookstableandcohesivewhencomparedwitha
traditionalmonarchysuchasThailandorwhollyartificialnationstateslikeIraqandSyria.Thebloody
regimesinauguratedbyKhomeiniandMaosurvivedsometerribleinternalandexternalconflicts
theKoreanandIranIraqwars,theCulturalRevolutionandmuchfratricidalbloodlettingpartly
becausetheircorenationalistideologiessecuredconsentfrommanyoftheirsubjects.

Since1989,however,thisstrenuouslyachievednationalconsensusinmanycountrieshasbeen
undersiegefromafreshquarter:anideologyofendlesseconomicexpansionandprivatewealth
creationthathadbeentamedinthemid20thcentury.Afteritsmostsevereglobalcrisisinthe
1930s,capitalismhadsufferedadeclineinlegitimacy,andinmuchofthenonwesternworld,
plannedandprotectedeconomicgrowthhadbecomethechosenmeanstosuchendsassocial
justiceandgenderequality.Inourownage,feralformsofcapitalism,whichaftertheDepression
weredefangedbysocialwelfarisminthewestandprotectionisteconomieselsewhere,haveturned
intoanelementalforce.Thus,nationstatesalreadystrugglingagainstsecessionistmovementsby
ethnicandreligiousminoritieshaveseentheirinternalunityfurtherunderminedbycapitalisms
dominantethicofprimitiveaccumulationandindividualgratification.

Allofthewesternnationsarecaughtinthelieoftheirpretendedhumanism;thismeansthewest
hasnomoralauthority

China,oncetheworldsmostegalitariansociety,isnowevenmoreunequalthantheUnitedStates
1%ofitspopulationownsonethirdofthenationalwealthandpronetodefuseitsincreasingsocial
contradictionsthroughahardlinenationalismdirectedatitsneighbours,particularlyJapan.Many
formallydemocraticnationstates,suchasIndia,Indonesia,andSouthAfrica,havestruggledto
maintaintheirnationalconsensusinthefaceoftheimperativetoprivatisebasicservicessuchas
water,healthandeducation(andalso,formanycountries,todeindustrialise,andsurrendertheir
sovereigntytomarkets).Mobileandtransnationalcapital,whichdeterritorialiseswealthand
poverty,hasmadestatebuildinganditsoriginalgoalsofbroadsocialandeconomicupliftnearly
impossibletoachievewithinnationalboundaries.

Theelitesprimarilybenefittingfromglobalcapitalismhavehadtodevisenewideologiestomake
theirdominanceseemnatural.Thus,IndiaandIsrael,whichstartedoutasnationstatescommitted
tosocialjustice,haveseentheirfoundationalidealsradicallyreconfiguredbyanexusofneoliberal
politiciansandmajoritariannationalists,whonowtrytobludgeontheirdisaffectedsubjectsinto
loyaltytoaJewishstateandaHindunation.DemagoguesinThailand,Myanmar,andPakistan
haveemergedattheheadofpopulationsangryandfearfulaboutbeingdeprivedoftheendlessly
postponedfruitsofmodernity.

Identifiedwitheliteorsectarianinterests,theunrepresentativecentralstateinmanycountries
strugglestocompetewithoffersofstabilityandorderfromnonstateactors.Notsurprisingly,even
theviciousIsisclaimstoofferbettergovernancetoSunnisangrywiththeShiitedominated
governmentinBaghdad.SodoMaoistinsurgentswhocontrollargeterritoriesinCentralIndia,and
evendrugtraffickersinMyanmarandMexico.

Ashatteredmirror

Fukuyama,assertingthatthepowerofthedemocraticidealremainsimmense,claimedearlierthis
yearthatweshouldhavenodoubtastowhatkindofsocietyliesattheendofHistory.Butthe
timeforgrandHegeliantheoriesabouttherationalspiritofhistoryincarnatedinthenationstate,
socialism,capitalism,orliberaldemocracyisnowover.Lookingatourowncomplexdisorderwecan
nolongeracceptthatitmanifestsanapriorimoralandrationalorder,visibleonlytoanelitethusfar,
thatwillultimatelyberevealedtoall.

Howthendoweinterpretit?Reflectingontheworldspervasiveraggednessinthelastessayhe
wrotebeforehisdeathin2006,theAmericananthropologistCliffordGeertzspokeofhowthe
shatteringoflargercoherenceshasmaderelatinglocalrealitieswithoverarchingones
extremelydifficult.Ifthegeneralistobegraspedatall,Geertzwrote,andnewunities
uncovered,itmust,itseems,begraspednotdirectly,allatonce,butviainstances,differences,
variations,particularspiecemeal,casebycase.Inasplinteredworld,wemustaddressthe
splinters.

Suchanapproachwouldnecessarilydemandgreaterattentiontohistoricalspecificityanddetail,the
presenceofcontingency,andtheeverdeepeningcontradictionsofnationstatesamidthecrisesof
capitalism.ItwouldrequireaskingwhynationbuildinginAfghanistanandIraqfailedcatastrophically
whiledecentralisationhelpedstabiliseIndonesia,theworldslargestMuslimcountry,afteralong
spellofdespoticrulesupportedbythemiddleclass.ItwouldrequireanadmissionthatIraqcan
achieveamodicumofstabilitynotbyrevivingthedoomedprojectofnationstatebutthrougha
returntoOttomanstyleconfederalinstitutionsthatdevolvepowerandguaranteeminorityrights.
AddressingthesplintersleavesnoscopeforvacuousmoralisingagainstIslamicextremism:intheir
puritanicalandutopianzeal,theIslamicrevolutionariesbrutallyadvancingacrossSyriaandIraq
resemblethefanaticallysecularKhmerRougemorethananythinginthelonghistoryofIslam.

Afreshgraspofthegeneralalsonecessitatesunderstandingtheprecisewaysinwhichwestern
ideologues,andtheirnonwesternepigones,continuetomakethemodernworld.Shocktherapy
administeredtoahaplessRussianpopulationinthe1990sandthehorrificsufferingafterwardsset
thestageforPutinsmessianicEurasianism.But,followingGeertzsinsistenceondifferencesand
variations,theressentimentofthewestarticulatedbynationalistsinRussia,China,andIndiacannot
beconflatedwiththeresistancetoapredatoryformofmodernisationruthlessdispossessionbya
profitdrivennexusofthestateandbusinessmountedbyindigenouspeoplesinTibet,India,Peru
andBolivia.

Inanycase,thedoubtersofwesternstyleprogresstodayincludemorethanjustmarginal
communitiesandsomeangryenvironmentalactivists.LastmonththeEconomistsaidthat,onthe
basisofIMFdata,emergingeconomiesorthelargepartofhumanitythatBaylycalledthelong
termlosersofhistorymighthavetowaitforthreecenturiesinordertocatchupwiththewest.In
theEconomistsassessment,whichpitilesslyannulstheupbeatprojectionsbelovedofconsultants
andinvestors,thelastdecadeofrapidgrowthwasanaberrationandbillionsofpeoplewillbe
poorerforalotlongerthantheymighthaveexpectedjustafewyearsago.

Theimplicationsaresobering:thenonwestnotonlyfindsitselfreplicatingthewestsviolenceand
traumaonaninfinitelylargerscale.Whilehelpinginflicttheprofoundestdamageyetonthe
environmentmanifesttodayinrisingsealevels,erraticrainfall,drought,decliningharvests,and
devastatingfloodsthenonwestalsohasnorealprospectofcatchingupwiththewest.

Howdowechartourwayoutofthisimpasse?Hisowndiscoveryofthetragicallyinsuperable
contradictionsofwesternisationledAronintotheoddcompanyofthemanythinkersintheeastand
thewestwhoquestionedtheexaltingofeconomicgrowthasanendinitself.Ofcourse,otherways
ofconceivingofthegoodlifehaveexistedlongbeforeacrudelyutilitariancalculuswhich
institutionalisesgreed,creditsslaverywitheconomicvalueandconfusesindividualfreedomwith
consumerchoicereplacedthinkinginourmostprominentminds.

Suchreexaminationsofliberalcapitalistideasofdevelopment,andexplorationofsuppressed
intellectualtraditions,arenotnearlyasrousingorselfflatteringastherhetoricalbinariesthatmake
laptopbomberspoundthekeyboardwiththecapslockglowinggreen.BarackObama,who
struggledtoadheretoawisepolicyofnotdoingstupidstuff,haslaunchedanotheropenendedwar
afterhewasassailedforbeingweakbyassortedcandoists.Plainly,AngloAmericaneliteswhoare
handsomelycompensatedtoliveforeverintheearly20thcentury,whentheliberaldemocraticwest
crusheditsmostviciousenemies,willneverceasetofindmorebrutestoexterminate.Therestofus,
however,havetoliveinthe21stcentury,andpreventitfromturningintoyetanotherrottenonefor
thewesternmodel.