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Using behavioral skills training and video


rehearsal to teach blackjack skills

Article in Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis July 2015


DOI: 10.1002/jaba.225 Source: PubMed

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JOURNAL OF APPLIED BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS 2015, 48, 111 NUMBER 3 (FALL)

USING BEHAVIORAL SKILLS TRAINING AND VIDEO REHEARSAL TO


TEACH BLACKJACK SKILLS
RYAN C. SPEELMAN, SETH W. WHITING, AND MARK R. DIXON
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY CARBONDALE

A behavioral skills training procedure that consisted of video instructions, video rehearsal, and
video testing was used to teach 4 recreational gamblers a specific skill in playing
blackjack (sometimes called card counting). A multiple baseline design was used to evaluate
intervention effects on card-counting accuracy and chips won or lost across participants.
Before training, no participant counted cards accurately. Each participant completed all
phases of the training protocol, counting cards fluently with 100% accuracy during changing
speed criterion training exercises. Generalization probes were conducted while participants
played blackjack in a mock casino following each training phase. Afterwards, all 4 participants
were able to count cards while they played blackjack. In conjunction with count accuracy,
total winnings were tracked to determine the monetary advantages associated with counting
cards. After losing money during baseline, 3 of 4 participants won a substantial amount of
money playing blackjack after the intervention.
Key words: behavioral skills training, video rehearsal, video testing, gambling, blackjack
An estimated 7.5 million Americans (2.4%) same amount of time for $50. When irrational
are classified as either problem or pathological risks are taken and errors in choice making (e.g.,
gamblers. Although problem gambling repre- cards held, numbers to wager on, doubling
sents a significant societal problem, the propor- down) occur, the gambler is performing at
tion of the population addicted to gambling is less than optimal levels.
relatively small, in that approximately 126 Blackjack is one of the most popular table
million Americans placed a legal wager within games offered in casinos. It is a card game in
the last year and upwards of 86% reported which the player tries to obtain a winning
gambling at least once in their lifetime hand by collecting a total numerical value of
(National Gambling Impact Commission cards that is higher than the dealers card total
Report, 1999). For individuals who are not but does not exceed 21 (Golden, 2011).
pathological gamblers, gambling is largely a Several players may play at once; however, each
recreational activity. Americans spend more is playing against the dealer. The value of each
on legal gam- bling activities than on card is equivalent to the face value of the card,
recorded music, theme parks, video games, with face cards (jacks, queens, kings) assigned
spectator sports, and movie tickets combined a value of 10 and aces a value of 1 or 11
(National Gambling Impact Commission (chosen by the player). After the player places a
Report, 1999). Because this pas- time does bet, two cards are dealt face up to the player.
require risking financial resources, it is The dealer is dealt one card face up and another
important for gamblers to maximize their face down. After a player has received both
entertainment while they minimize the associ- cards, he or she has the option to either hit,
ated expense. Gambling for 2 hr at a cost of stand, double down, or split. A player
$200 would be less preferred than gambling who chooses to hit receives additional cards,
for that hoping that the cards will bring him or her
closer to 21. A player who stands declines the
Correspondence concerning this article should be opportunity to draw more cards; this is
addressed to Mark R. Dixon, Behavior Analysis and generally done when a player has a hand at or
Therapy Program, Rehabilitation Institute, Southern
Illinois University, Carbondale, Illinois 62901 (e-mail: near 21. Doubling down involves doubling a
mdixon@siu.edu). bet after seeing two initial cards, with the
doi: 10.1002/jaba.225 agreement that the player will

1
2 RYAN C.BLACKJACK
SPEELMANSKILLS
et al. 2

receive only one additional card. Hands of 10 overcome when the game was played optimally.
or Thorp (1966) found that if the
11 are commonly doubled down because of
the high probability of drawing a 10 card and
thus having a total hand of 20 or 21. Splitting
occurs when a player receives two matching
cards (aces, eights, etc.) and elects to play each
as a separate hand. Basic strategy dictates that a
gambler split aces because of the high
probability of drawing a
10 card that will result in a total of 21. A
player continues to play the hand, drawing as
many cards as needed, until he or she exceeds
21 or stands, electing to draw no other cards.
The dealer must continue to draw cards or hit
until his or her hand is 17 or greater. Only then
may a dealer stand. A hand greater than 21 is
said to bust or lose. After both the player and
the dealer stand, the total numerical value of
the players hand is compared to the dealers. If
a player has a hand closer to 21 than the dealer
but does not exceed 21, the player has won. If
the dealer has a hand closer to but not exceeding
21, the dealer has won. Ties are known as a
push, which results in the return of the
initial bet to each player. After each hand,
the dealer either collects the players loss or
pays the players winnings. Comprehensive
strategies for when to hit, stand, split, or double
down have been developed and are widely
available on the Internet and in gaming stores
(see Thorp, 1966, for an overview of basic
strategy).
The house or casino typically will hold a
statistical advantage over the patron; however,
an individual may gain an advantage by
counting cards. In most games of chance,
the law of independent trials applies. That is,
the outcome of each trial does not depend in
any way on previous outcomes. However, in
blackjack, the trials are not independent; as the
game is played, previous hands influence what
cards are still available in succeeding rounds.
The composition of the deck changes and the
advantage alternates between the player and
the casino. Edward Thorp, a professor of
mathematics, proved mathematically that the
house advantage in blackjack could be
3 RYAN C.BLACKJACK
SPEELMANSKILLS
et al. 3

remaining deck had a surplus of 10 and ace 100% for either side. Card counting allows the
cards, the player had a higher statistical player to take advantage of these fluctuations by
advantage of winning. Conversely, the dealer or placing larger bets when the game is advanta-
casino holds a slight advantage when there are geous and smaller bets when it is not (Anderson,
more low cards in the deck. He developed a 2012). Players who count cards and adjust their
counting system in which a player can track the bets according to the total point count will
number of high and low cards that have been gradually win money over time.
dealt, known as the point-count system. Using The point-count system described, also
Thorps system, low cards, including twos, known as card counting, is not prohibited by
threes, fours, fives, and sixes, are assigned a federal, state, or local law. In the case of Uston v.
point value of 1. Ten-value cards and aces Resorts International Hotel Inc., the New
are assigned a point value of 1, and sevens, Jersey Supreme Court ruled that Atlantic City
eights, and nines are assigned a value of 0. As casinos could not bar card counters from
the game is played a player adds, subtracts, playing in their casinos (American Gaming
or does nothing to the point-count total after Association, 2010). Despite controversy, card
each card is dealt. Using the point- count counting provides the blackjack player with a
system, a player is able to track the number of valid strategy in which to gain a statistical
low- and high-value cards that have been dealt, advantage. Due to the popularity of blackjack
thereby removing them from the deck (Golden, and the technical skill required to build
2011). A statistical advantage occurs when the fluency and utilize correct betting strat- egies,
point count is positive, indicating that there is the development of proper teaching
a higher amount of 10 or ace cards to be methods are of value. Thorps book was a
dealt relative to the number of low cards. Thorp New York Times best seller, and Internet
found that the advantage typically ranges from searches of
10% to
card-counting strategies will yield hundreds of modeling and video feedback generalized to
web pages that offer advice. These facts, coupled the natural environment, and performance
with the many thousands of people who play accuracy was maintained during follow-up
blackjack on a recreational basis, suggest that probes. Addi- tional studies have shown that
skilled playing is a socially valid goal. We want behavioral procedures may improve
to be clear that we are not advocating chronic performance in swim- ming (McKenzie &
and habitual gambling; to the contrary, we Rushall, 1974) and football (Smith & Ward,
aim to teach a skill that will make the game 2006).
enjoyable to the typical player. The use of The purpose of the present study was to
behavioral skills training (BST) may aid in the examine an intervention that consisted of
development of appropriate skills needed to video instructions, video rehearsal, and testing
gain an advantage. A training program should to teach a card-counting strategy to adults with
promote highly accu- rate, rapid responding no current or previous history of pathological
that will generalize beyond the treatment gambling. Tests for generalization were then
environment to the casino floor. conducted throughout training to determine if
Behavioral skills training is a method that the acquired skills generalized to a real
typically uses instructions, modeling, blackjack table. In addition, the running total
rehearsing, and feedback to teach complex of the monetary earnings of each participant
skills. It has been used to teach a variety of was tracked to determine whether the count-
socially valid skills including prevention of ing system provided a meaningful advantage to
sexual abuse (Milten- berger et al., 1999), the player.
prevention of gun play (Miltenberger et al.,
2004), and safe sexual behavior (St.
Lawrence, Jefferson, Alleyne, & Brasfield, METHOD
1995). Johnson et al. (2005) found that BST Participants, Setting, and Materials
could improve abduction-prevention skills in Four female recreational blackjack players
preschoolers. Children were taught to say no were recruited for inclusion in the study. Each
and immediately walk or run away when player was screened using the South Oaks
presented with an abduction lure by a Gambling Screen assessment (SOGS; Lesieur &
confeder- ate. Miltenberger et al. (2004) Blume, 1987) to ensure that they were not
used BST to improve the firearm safety skills pathological gamblers. The SOGS is a 20-item
of 6- and 7-year- old children. Miltenberger et questionnaire frequently used to screen for
al. (1999) suggested that, for future BST to gambling pathology. Scores on the SOGS range
generalize and maintain, in situ assessments from 0 to 20, with scores of 5 or higher
should be incorporated into BST so that natural characterized as a pathological level. The SOGS
settings are more likely to exert control over has been shown to be a valid measurement when
the behavior. In addition to BST, video compared with the DSM-IV criterion for
modeling has been empirically validated as an pathological gambling (see Gambino &
effective tool to teach a variety of skills Lesieur,
including gymnastic talents (Boyer, 2006). No participants scored higher than 3 on
Miltenberger, Batsche, & Fogel, 2009). the SOGS; therefore, none were excused from
Gymnasts in this study were given a video the study, and all completed the entire
model of experts performing various gymnastic experiment. Participants completed the study
moves that were central to each participants in an office setting and in a mock casino. The
training. Results showed that video modeling training area consisted of a small office room
improved skill performance more quickly with a desk, chair, and laptop computer. The
than regular practice and coaching alone. mock casino was a room (8 m by 5 m) that
Most important, skills acquired via video contained four slot machines, a roulette table, a
craps table, and a blackjack table.
The setting simulated an experience in an After each hand on the blackjack table, the
actual casino. The rules, speed, and game experimenter asked the participant for the count.
play of blackjack matched those in an If the participants count matched the actual
actual casino. Each participant played on an count, the trial was counted as accurate.
actual blackjack table complete with a chip tray,
Failures to match the correct count were
betting circle, card shoe, and basic rules posted
scored as inaccurate. Responses were
on the table. combined into trial blocks of 10 hands, and
Training videos were created by the re- accuracy was calculated as the number of
searchers and consisted of video instructions,accurate responses divided by
video rehearsal, video rehearsal at one-half 10 and converted to a percentage. After 10 trials
speed, video testing at one-half speed, video were completed, the count returned to 0 and a
rehearsal at three-fourths speed, video testing
new deck was placed in play. In addition to
at three-fourths speed, video rehearsal at full
card- counting accuracy, the number of chips
speed, and video testing at full speed. held by the player was recorded in order to
Instructions included a basic rationale and gauge the effectiveness of the counting system.
explanation of which cards to count and After each trial the experimenters added
whether to add or subtract a point when each winnings or deducted losses from the players
of those cards was dealt. During rehearsal total, depend- ing on the outcome of the hand,
videos, the experimenter dealt one card at a and recorded the dollar value of chips the
time face up on the table, stating the count player owned.
after each card was dealt for the entire deck. To ensure accurate observations, a second
Video tests consisted of the experimenter independent observer scored the players
dealing each card face up and pausing 10 card count for 36% of sessions and the
times (after approximately every fifth card) to
number of chips during all sessions after
ask the participant the count. The locations of
15.7% of trials. For each instance the
the pauses were selected by the
participant was asked to provide the count,
experimenters before filming so that they both independent observers referenced a chart
were evenly distributed throughout the deck. detailing the exact count for each card dealt
This was to ensure that each participant during video tests. Because each deck was
was required to count cards accurately from precounted, the experimenters knew the count
the beginning to the end of the deck in based on the last card placed in play. During
order to respond correctly at each pause. generalization probes, each hand played on the
Participants were not given the count
blackjack table was kept separate, because
during testing videos and instead were the cards dealt in each hand served as a
required to count the cards and state the permanent product to score the count. After
count aloud or write the count when 10 hands were dealt, the experimenter and
prompted by video. Training videos were independent observer referenced the cards in
recorded on a real blackjack table in the each hand and compared them to the count
mock casino. Three testing videos were that was recorded by the experimenter. Reli-
made for each speed (one-half, three- ability was calculated using a point-by-point
fourths, and full speed) to minimize the agreement ratio, in which the number of
influence of repeated testing. agreements between the two observers was
divided by the total number of agreements plus
Response Measurement and Interobserver disagreements. The result was then converted
Agreement to a percentage. An agreement was defined as
The primary dependent variable was the the two observers scoring the same count for
percentage of card counts that were accurate. each participants response. Interobserver agree-
ment was 100% for all participants during all
baseline, rehearsal videos, and tests for and recorded the players count. To avoid
general- ization to a game of blackjack. Using any effects associated with fatigue, baseline
the same formula, the number of chips was sessions lasted for approximately 30 hands
counted independently once or more every 16 (three trial blocks). After all participants had
trials, and agreement was 100%. completed a session, the experimenters
examined the data for stable count accuracy
Procedure across trial blocks. When stability was
Baseline. Participants completed the exper- observed, a randomly selected participant
imental procedures individually with only the advanced to the training phase while all others
experimenter in the room. After completion of continued baseline sessions. In this way, each
informed consent, each participant was read participant played between 30 and 120
the following blackjack instructions: hands to measure baseline performance, and the
You are about to play blackjack. You will implementation of the intervention was stag-
start with $200 worth of chips. Before gered using a concurrent multiple baseline
each hand you will place a bet by placing design across participants.
chips in the circle area in front of you. You Behavioral skills training. After baseline meas-
may bet as little or as much as you want ures were collected, each participant viewed an
for each hand; however, you must bet at instructional video on how to use the point-
least the $5 minimum. The goal in
count system. The video provided the following
blackjack is to have a hand that is closer to
instructions:
21 than the dealer. An ace is valued at 1 or
11. Face cards and tens are valued at 10. All You are about to practice counting cards,
number cards are valued at their face value. which may give you a strategic
The dealer will stand on advantage over the dealer while playing
17 or higher and hit on 16 or lower. The blackjack. As the cards are dealt you will
dealer must hit 17 if they have an ace, be counting two types of cards: high cards
known as a soft 17. Place bets as if and low cards. Low cards consist of twos,
you were playing with real money. threes, fours, fives, and sixes. For each low
card dealt you will add one to the total.
After answering any questions, an experi- High cards consist of all face cards (jacks,
menter (who served as the dealer) provided queens, kings), tens, and aces. For each
participants with $5, $10, and $25 chips high card dealt you will subtract one from
totaling the point-count total. Sevens, eights, and
$200 and dealt hands of blackjack at simulated nines will not be counted or are given the
casino speed. To further simulate true casino value of zero. The dealer will drop one card
at a time face up onto a pile. The count
gambling, the rules used were the standard rules
will start at zero. When the count is high
that may be found in a casino: dealer must draw
(positive one or above) the player holds a
on 16, stand on 17, hit on a soft 17 (two statistical advantage, indicating there is a
cards total 17, but one of them is an ace surplus of 10 cards remaining in the deck.
which can count as either a 1 or 11), and pay
a blackjack outcome (i.e., the player is dealt an Thorp (1966) stated that a participant who
ace and a 10- value card) at 3:2. For example, is able to count all the cards in the deck
if a player bet accurately in 50 s or less is more than able to
$10 and had a blackjack, the dealer would count cards effectively in a casino setting. Thus,
pay to measure the accuracy of card counting, each
$15. After each bet was placed and the trial was participant was shown a test video with cards
completed, the experimenter paid the player or dealt at full speed (one card dealt
took the bet (depending on the outcome), approximately every second, totaling no more
recorded the count and chips won or lost, than 60 s) in which
asked the participant to say the running count
aloud,
the dealer dealt each card face up on a pile and A mastery criterion was set at 100% correct.
stopped 10 times to ask the participant the If a participant responded correctly on all 10
count. Before the experiment each deck was opportunities, she moved to the next training
dealt, and the count was recorded for each card phase. If a participant responded incorrectly on
in a computerized spreadsheet to facilitate any of the 10 probes, she reviewed the rehearsal
interob- server agreement. The order of the video at the same speed at which she was tested.
cards in each deck remained consistent for five For instance, if a participant responded in-
separate decks recorded at varying speeds correctly during a video test at three-fourths
throughout rehearsal and testing phases. speed, she reviewed a rehearsal video at three-
A concurrent multiple baseline design fourths speed. During training, Participant 1
across participants was used to evaluate the required eight test videos to achieve mastery at
effects of the intervention on chip total. After half speed, five test videos at three-fourths
baseline measures were collected, each speed, and 36 test videos at full speed.
participant was exposed to the following Participant 2 required six test videos at half
training phases: video instructions, video speed, 13 at three-fourths speed, and 46 at
rehearsal and tests at half speed (the hand full speed. Participant 3 required one test
was dealt in 120 s, or one card every 2.3 s), video at each speed. Participant 4 required
video rehearsal and tests at three- fourths three test videos at half speed, nine at three-
speed (the hand was dealt in 90 s, or one card fourths speed, and 27 at full speed. After
every 1.7 s), and video rehearsal and tests at full completion of each portion of the testing
speed (the hand was dealt in under 60 s; during the BST phase, the participant played a
approximately one card every second). Video generalization probe of one trial block (10
rehearsal consisted of the dealer dealing one hands) in the simulated casino to determine
card at a time, face up, onto a pile and whether the full-speed training was required
included feedback via a statement of the count for accurate counting in a gambling setting
after each card dealt. Participants were or if instructions or a slower training speed
permitted to repeat the video rehearsal tape as was sufficient. Participants were then given
many times as needed. Video testing consisted feedback on the accuracy of their
of the dealer dealing one card at a time, face up, performance before returning to complete the
onto a pile and asking the participant to state next phase of training.
the count 10 times through- out the deck. After each participant scored 100% on trials
Three different decks were recorded, and the in the testing videos, she was shown a video on
dealer stopped to ask the count at varying how to bet. The video provided the
times for each video and speed to prevent following instructions:
testing effects. On some tests, participants
were asked to write their responses to facilitate Now that you have learned to count cards I
interobserver agreement, whereas on others, the am going to give you the best possible
participant stated the count aloud while the strategy when betting. As the cards are dealt,
experimenter scored the response as correct or the composition of the deck changes and
the advantage will shift between the player
incorrect. Written responses served as a
and the casino. You will take advantage of
permanent product and were later compared to
these shifts, betting more when you the
the corresponding spreadsheet by two independ- player hold the advantage and less when
ent observers. Because each deck was prere- the casino has the advantage. Anytime the
corded, scored, and coded, the experimenter and point count is positive, the player holds
independent observers needed only to compare the advantage. Anytime the point count
each response to the answer scored in the is negative, the casino holds the advantage.
corresponding spreadsheet. When the point
count is zero or negative it is beneficial to As each player was exposed to video rehearsal
bet the minimum, one chip. If the count is and testing, card-counting proficiency
positive your bet should equal the point- increased. Training allowed for each
count total. For instance, if the count is
participant to achieve the 100% mastery
plus two you will bet two chips; plus three,
criterion at increasingly faster speeds to build
three chips, and so on. You must also
take into account how much of the deck is fluency. After video rehearsal and testing at half
left when estimating the point-count speed, participants counted cards accurately for
total. For in- stance, if there is one half of 0%, 20%, 100%, and 60% of the hands dealt
the deck left you will multiply the point- while playing blackjack, respectively (M
count total by two. If there is one fourth of 45%). Scores continued to improve as each
the deck left you will multiply the point- participant completed modeling and testing at
count total by four. While we play you three-fourths speed. After participants com-
will estimate when one half and three pleted tests at three-fourths speed, scores
fourths of the deck is dealt and adjust your improved to 30%, 50%, 100%, and 80%,
point count and your bets accordingly. respectively (M 65%). Following video re-
Remember to bet as many chips as the hearsal and testing at full speed, scores improved
point-count total.
to 50%, 100%, 100%, and 80%, respectively
(M 82.5%). After all training and
After the participant watched the betting
general- ization probes were completed,
video, the experimenter answered any ques-
participants counted cards accurately on 98%,
tions by restating portions of the video script
96%, 95%, and 83%, respectively (M 93%)
or provided the opportunity to view the video
of all posttest hands played.
again.
Data on the number of chips won or lost
Posttest. After the final training video, each were collected to evaluate the financial out-
player returned to the blackjack table and comes of the wagers. Figure 2 displays the
continued play according to the same proce- total chips won and lost for each player during
dures as during baseline. Each player started baseline and after the training during the
with the same amount of chips ($200) given posttest. Participant 4, who broke even
before baseline and the same rules during the first 120 hands of baseline, lost $5
regarding game play. Total chips won or lost in the
and card- count accuracy were measured to 30 hands following the intervention
gauge the effectiveness of the BST procedure. (M $0.17 lost per hand). All other partic-
ipants won a substantial amount following
RESULTS BST. Participant 1, who lost $135 during
baseline, won $450 after training during the
Figure 1 displays the card-count accuracy 120 hands following intervention (M $3.75
during generalization probes (percentage correct won per hand). Participant 2 lost $42 during
in blocks of 10) for each player. During baseline and won $295 during the 90 hands
baseline, no player counted cards accurately. following training (M $3.28 won per hand).
After three trial blocks, the experimenter Participant 3 lost $90 during baseline and won
checked for stable responding and introduced a $135 during the 60 hands following training
participant to the intervention phase. (M $2.25 won per hand). Together, all
Following video instruc- tions, no player four players lost a total of $267 before
could accurately count cards while playing training and won $875 after BST. The data
blackjack; scores were 0%, 20%, indicate that as the number of hands
0%, and 0% for Participants 1 through 4, increased in posttrain- ing, the amount of
respectively (M 5%). chips won per hand increased.
Figure 1. Count accuracy for each participant on the blackjack table.
DISCUSSION rehearsal, and testing can effectively teach a
card-counting strategy to recreational blackjack
The results of this study demonstrate that BST players. Performance in generalization probes
that consisted of video instructions, video gradually improved as each training phase was
the dealer, as evidenced by a substantial amount
of money won for Participants 1, 2, and 3. The
highest positive count observed during
blackjack play for all players was 28 (7
count with one fourth of the deck remaining
adjusted to equal a true count of 28). A 28
count provides the gambler with a 7.95%
advantage over the dealer. In a practical sense,
card counting appeared to be an effective means
to exploit an advantage while gambling.
Participants 1, 2, and 3, who counted cards
most accurately, won the most money. Had
Participant 4 continued to play and wager, it
could be argued that she would have won
money; however, this player was the least
accurate card counter, and it cannot be
assumed that card- counting proficiency
would have improved as play continued.
Participant 4 was also the last player
introduced to the intervention and therefore
played the fewest hands after training, which
may have influenced posttest performance.
Although the players chip totals frequently
benefitted from counting cards, the card-count-
ing system must still be used with caution. As
shown in Figure 2, the card-counting strategy
appears to keep the players number of chips
stable until a significant advantage is observed
and acted on, resulting in a large, rapid
increase in the number of chips. However, a
significant advantage occurs only on a
probabilistic basis. Even though the player has
an advantage over the casino when a high
positive count is observed, winning is not
Figure 2. The total number of chips held by each guaranteed. Overall, when gambling in a
player after each hand.
casino there is no sure way to win, but
counting cards and exploiting any observed
completed. The BST package produced an advantage appears to be a sound method of
improvement in card counting in the reducing risk when placing a wager.
simulated casino setting where skills were The current results support previous BST
never trained. During games of real blackjack, literature. Miltenberger et al. (1999)
players were able to keep the count and adjust suggested the incorporation of in situ
their bets to the point-count total. All assessments to make sure that the natural
participants followed the betting strategy setting will occasion targeted behavior. In the
outlined in the BST package. This strategy present study, general- ization probes were
gave the players an advantage over conducted systematically after completion of
each training phase. After completing a probe
block of 10 hands in a mock
casino, each participant was given feedback on recreational athlete a more effective golf swing
the accuracy of their responses before returning or tennis stroke.
to the next training phase. Each participant
was challenged to practice the newly acquired
skill in the typical gambling context, and REFERENCES
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