Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
In partial fulfilment
of the requirements in
Stat 147: Introduction to Multivariate Analysis
Submitted by:
Submitted to:
Prof. Wendell Q. Campano
Tourism is one of the key drivers of socio-economic progress throughout the world. With
the increasing number of destinations worldwide, tourism have opened new horizons to people
both the old and the young generation especially to the poor by creating jobs and enterprises, export
revenues, and infrastructure development. This study aims to create a global profile based on
tourism indicators. Secondary data was used and a total of 123 countries were included in the
study. Multivariate analysis was performed to assess a countrys performance when it comes to
tourism. Factor analysis was used which yielded five factors that would influence a countrys
tourism competitiveness: resources, utilities, development indicators, environment sanctuary and
biodiversity. Cluster analysis was also performed using the factors obtained. This method
categorized the countries into five clusters namely service capable, underdeveloped,
environmentalist, powerhouse and industrialized.
CHAPTER I
Background..1
Objectives of the Study....2
Scope and Limitations..2
Significance of the Study.2
CHAPTER II
Review of Related Literature...3
On Air Transport and Tourism3
On Aquaculture Production and Tourism....3
On Armed Forces and Tourism....3
On Forest Area and Tourism3
On GDP and Tourism......4
On Health Expenditure Total and Tourism..4
On Improved Sanitation Facilities and Tourism..4
On Improved Water Source and Tourism....4
On Internet Users and Tourism5
On Labor Force and Tourism...5
On Marine Protected Areas and Tourism....5
On Services Offered and Tourism...5
On Terrestrial Protected Areas and Tourism...6
CHAPTER III
Methodology7
Data Gathering.7
Explanatory Variables..7
Factor Analysis9
Cluster Analysis...9
CHAPTER IV
Descriptives10
Factor Analysis..10
Cluster analysis..14
CHAPTER V
Conclusion and Recommendations18
REFERENCES.20
APPENDICES
Appendix A24
Appendix B26
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
Background
Tourism has been considered as one of the worlds greatest contributors in todays
culture and economy. Even before 1995, tourism had arrivals around 500 million and it keeps on
increasing yearly. According to the records of World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), there is
an increase in international tourism (number of arrivals) from 823,219,414 in 2005 to 1.161
billion in 2014. In UNWTOs long-term forecast report Tourism Towards 2030, it is expected
that international tourist arrivals worldwide will increase by 3.3% a year between 2010 and 2030
to reach 1.8 billion by 2030.
It can be shown that tourism has lifted nations especially the developing countries from
incapability of providing their resources and has become a source of income, that is, as an
investment priority. Philippines, as an example of a developing country, had PhP 1.43 trillion in
2015 that came from travel and tourism industry alone. These established businesses,
infrastructures, support and use for natural resources, and the peoples capability to adapt to new
ideas. However, the demand for an increase in tourist arrivals had left environmental factors
aside which is the most affected. As it can be a tool for environmental protection and
conservation, its adverse effects are unnoticed due to its economic advantage. In fact, Air travel
alone had 40% of the total CO2 emissions (kt) of 35,848,592 in 2013. Conservation benefits are
being addressed to solve not only the problem of pollution but land degradation, climate change,
solid waste and littering, sewage and species extinction as well.
Jafari (1981) defined tourism with its impact in the economy as a study of man away
from his usual habitat, of the industry which responds to his needs and the impacts that both he
and the industry have for the host socio-cultural, economic and physical environments. This
implies that tourism is not merely an activity for a person outside his zone, instead, to fully
understand tourism is to consider all the factors that it affects and is affected by it either
positively or negatively.
1
Objectives of the Study
The researchers intend to create a global profile based on tourism indicators. Different
factors affecting tourism are evaluated and tested for its significance on predicting the level of
tourism in the world. Thus, this study will provide a better understanding of international tourism
by identifying its possible areas for improvement and development.
With this, the researchers have the following objectives:
1. To explain the underlying causes what makes tourism one of the fastest growing
economic sectors in the world;
2. To identify meaningful indicators of tourism through factor analysis;
3. To identify clusters of countries based on their tourism indicators using cluster analysis;
and
4. To help countries in their effort in planning for the infrastructure as well as marketing
their products.
2
CHAPTER II
REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE
3
which attract people to visit (Roberts et. al, 2000). Bigger forest area means cleaner and fresher
air and environment for the tourists.
4
productivity of the labor force (Frone and Frone, 2013). Aside from the bottled water that people
can buy within the vicinity of their travels, there are available water on households and places of
accommodation. These supplies need to be as clean as possible to avoid spread of diseases that
may ensue.
5
On Services Offered and Tourism
Services include value added in wholesale and retail trade (including hotels and
restaurants), transport, and government, financial, professional, and personal services such as
education, health care, and real estate services (World Bank, 2013). Improvements on the
mentioned sectors will provide an overall look of a country. People will tend to visit places with
accessible and proper accommodation, comfortable and fast transport, safe atmosphere, clean
ecosystem, and inexpensive cost of living. This will give an upturn on profit and job
opportunities to all the sectors in economy
6
CHAPTER III
METHODOLOGY
Data Gathering
The data in this study came from the data repository of World Bank for year 2014.
Several variables were chosen by the researchers to explain the tourism competitiveness of
different countries but some variables contain missing data. With this, the variables reduced to
13 variables. Due to availability of data, 2014 was chosen as the reference year of the data. In
addition, the number of observations for analysis decreased from 264 to 123.
Explanatory Variables
The variables included in the analysis are as follows:
1. Air transport, passengers carried [AirTrans] - include both domestic and international
aircraft passengers of air carriers registered in the country.
3. Armed forces personnel, total [ArmedForce] - are active duty military personnel,
including paramilitary forces if the training, organization, equipment, and control suggest
they may be used to support or replace regular military forces.
4. Forest area (sq. km) [Forest] - is land under natural or planted stands of trees of at least 5
meters in situ, whether productive or not, and excludes tree stands in agricultural
production systems (for example, in fruit plantations and agroforestry systems) and trees
in urban parks and gardens.
5. GDP (current US$) [GDP] - is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in
the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of
the products. Data are in current U.S. dollars. Dollar figures for GDP are converted from
domestic currencies using single year official exchange rates.
7
6. Health expenditure, total (% of GDP) [HealthExp] - is the sum of public and private
health expenditure. It covers the provision of health services (preventive and curative),
family planning activities, nutrition activities, and emergency aid designated for health
but does not include provision of water and sanitation.
8. Improved water source (% of population with access) [Water] - refers to the percentage
of the population using an improved drinking water source. The improved drinking water
source includes piped water on premises (piped household water connection located
inside the users dwelling, plot or yard), and other improved drinking water sources
(public taps or standpipes, tube wells or boreholes, protected dug wells, protected springs,
and rainwater collection).
9. Internet users (per 100 people) [Internet] - are individuals who have used the Internet
(from any location) in the last 12 months. Internet can be used via a computer, mobile
phone, personal digital assistant, games machine, digital TV etc.
10. Labor force, total [LaborForce] - comprises people ages 15 and older who meet the
International Labour Organization definition of the economically active population: all
people who supply labor for the production of goods and services during a specified
period. It includes both the employed and the unemployed.
11. Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters) [Marine] - are areas of intertidal or
subtidal terrain--and overlying water and associated flora and fauna and historical and
cultural features--that have been reserved by law or other effective means to protect part
or all the enclosed environment.
8
12. Services, etc., value added (% of GDP) [Services] - correspond to ISIC divisions 50-99
and they include value added in wholesale and retail trade (including hotels and
restaurants), transport, and government, financial, professional, and personal services
such as education, health care, and real estate services.
13. Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area) [Terrestrial] - are totally or partially
protected areas of at least 1,000 hectares that are designated by national authorities as
scientific reserves with limited public access, national parks, natural monuments, nature
reserves or wildlife sanctuaries, protected landscapes, and areas managed mainly for
sustainable use.
Factor Analysis
The essential purpose of factor analysis is to describe, if possible, the covariance
relationships among many variables in terms of a few underlying, but unobservable, random
quantities called factors (Johnson et. al.). In the study, factor analysis was used to determine
underlying factors that influence a countrys tourism competitiveness. The analysis was
performed through SAS using the principal component method.
Cluster Analysis
The basic objective in cluster analysis is to discover the natural groupings of the items (or
variables) (Johnson et. al.). The clustering is based on the closeness or similarity of one
object to the other. There are methods on clustering the observations namely: hierarchical
clustering and nonhierarchical clustering. Hierarchical method uses linkage to join clusters. On
the other hand, non hierarchical starts with (1) an initial partition of items or (2) initial set of seed
points which will form the nuclei of clusters. In the study, cluster analysis was used to classify
the countries into homogeneous groups using the factors obtained in factor analysis.
9
CHAPTER IV
Results and Discussion
Descriptives
Table 1. Percent Distribution of Countries by Continent
Continent Percentage
Africa 26.83 %
Asia 25.20 %
Europe 28.46 %
Oceania 1.63 %
The table above shows the percentages of the observations per continent. Majority of the
observations are from Europe. Availability of the data on the European nations may be the
reason why most of the observations. The countries in the data set are mostly from Europe,
Africa and Asia. On the other hand, only two countries represent the Oceania.
Factor Analysis
To determine how many factors should be retained, the researchers used the Kaiser-
Guttman rule which states that the number of factors to be extracted should be equal to the
number of factors having an eigenvalue greater than 1. Table 2 yields the eigenvalues of the
correlation matrix which shows four factors having an eigenvalue greater than 1. Also, Figure 1
shows the scree plot in which the elbow is on the fourth principal component. However, due to
interpretability, the researchers opted to retain five factors.
10
Table 2. Eigenvalues of the Correlation Matrix
11
Rotated Factor Pattern
Table 3 and 4 shows the rotated factor pattern of variables and the variance explained by
each factor, respectively. It can be seen in Table 3 that five factors are generated in the variables
using principal component method and Varimax rotation. Varimax rotation is used since the
factors it generates are the most sensible factors. In addition, according to Table 4, factors 1 and
2 explained most of the total variance of the observations.
12
Table 5. Final Communality Estimates
Aqua
Forest Sanitation Water Marine Terrestrial GDP culture
The communality estimates and total communality are shown in Table 4. After using
Varimax rotation, communalities of the extracted indicators were generated which indicate the
importance of forest area, sanitation and water facilities, terrestrial protected areas, GDP,
aquaculture production, health expenditure, air transportation, armed force personnel, labor
force and internet users. With all communalities greater than 70%, these variables have been
identified to have significant effects to the tourism industry of a country. These indicators can
help on increasing or decreasing the competitiveness of the tourism sector of a country.
FACTOR 1: RESOURCES
The first factor namely resources includes labor force, armed force personnel and
aquaculture production. This factor indicates the production of a country either by natural or
human resources. The availability of human resource denotes their capacity to accommodate and
serve the tourists. In addition, the natural resource suggests the kind and quality of items they can
offer.
FACTOR 2: UTILITIES
Utilities pertain to the second factor. The accessibility to necessary facilities like water,
sanitation, internet and services, which includes lodging, can have a big effect on the tourism
13
sector of a country. As their basic needs, tourists rely on how easy they can have access on these
utilities.
FACTOR 5: BIODIVERSITY
Biodiversity also affect the competitiveness of a country in the tourism sector. This is
significant since it specifies what scenic spots the country can can offer to the tourists. It also
describes the wide variety of natural resources a country has.
Cluster analysis
CLUSTER=1
14
Factor5 54 -0.1219267 0.2608022 -0.5917722 0.7164742
CLUSTER=2
15
CLUSTER=3
CLUSTER=4
16
CLUSTER 4: THE POWERHOUSE
In cluster four, the large positive values of the third factor, economic development, and
fifth factor, biodiversity, denotes that countries under this cluster may be economically powerful
and environmentally abundant. As seen in the cluster, Brazil which is home to one of the richest
biodiversities in the world is in this cluster (UNESCO Brazil). In addition, the two of the most
powerful nations in the world are in this cluster. United States and Russian federation are both
economically stable and technologically developed. This cluster is composed of 2.44% of the
observations.
CLUSTER=5
17
CHAPTER V
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
18
may be included such as those concerning communications and visiting accommodations. Also,
future researchers may consider those that significantly describe biodiversity such as animal and
plant species. Future studies may look examine the differences of developed countries and less-
developed or developing countries. Moreover, the researchers recommend adding more countries
in the study and considering the latest data set available.
19
REFERENCES
2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21).. French foreign policy. France Diplomatie, French
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Development (2016).
http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/french-foreign-policy/climate/2015-paris-climate-
conference-cop21/. Accessed 21 Dec 2016.
Adams, Emily E. World Forest Area Still on the Decline. Earth Policy Institute. August 31,
2012. www.earth-policy.org/indicators/C56/forests_2012. Accessed 21 Dec 2016
Batini, Ivica, MSc. The Role and the Importance of the Internet in Contemporary Tourism in
Travel Agencies Business. International Journal of Cognitive Research in Science,
Engineering and Education (IJCRSEE). Vol. 1, No.2, 2013.
www.ijcrsee.com/index.php/ijcrsee/article/view/63/180. Accessed 21 Dec 2016.
Boyce, JK. From natural resources to natural assets. Economics Department, University of
Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003, USA. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17208706.
Accessed 20 Dec 2016.
Cappell, Rod and Nimmo, Fiona. Assessment of evidence that fish farming impacts on tourism.
Scottish Aquaculture Research Forum, April 2009. www.sarf.org.uk/cms-
assets/documents/28823-393273.sarf045-tourism-report-final.pdf. Accessed 18 Dec
2016.
20
Climate Change and Tourism. Sustainable Development of Tourism. World Tourism
Organization Network, United Nations. sdt.unwto.org/content/faq-climate-change-and-
tourism. Accessed 21 Dec 2016.
Defining the Labor Force. Unemployment. Econport, Experimental Economics Center, 2006.
www.econport.org/content/handbook/Unemployment/Define.html. Accessed 21 Dec
2016.
Frone, Simona Maria and Frone, Dumitru Florin. Sustainable Tourism and Water Supply and
Sanitation Development in Romania. Journal of Tourism and Hospitality Management.
Dec 2013. Vol 1. No. 3. pp 140 -153.
www.davidpublishing.com/davidpublishing/Upfile/3/2/2014/2014030285869825.pdf.
Accessed 20 Dec 2016.
Hill, G. et. al. Forests Role in Tourism: Phase 2 Summary Report - Final. Forestry Group
(Economics and Statistics) of the Forestry Commission. December 2003.
med.forestweek.org/content/tourism-and-forest-how-promote-and-optimize-their-
mutual-development. Accesses 20 Dec 2016.
Most People in Countries in Africa Are Poor or Low Income. Pew Research Center Global
Attitudes and Trends. July 15, 2015. http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/07/08/a-global-
middle-class-is-more-promise-than-reality/pg_15-07-
08_globalmiddleclass_overview_26-2/. Accessed 20 Dec 2016.
21
Pachauri, Shonali, et al. Access to Modern Energy. United Nations Industrial Development
Organization (UNIDO), 2011.
www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/Energy/IIASA-GEF-
UNIDO_Access-to-Modern-Energy_2013-05-27.pdf. Accessed 18 Dec 2016.
Pullin, Andrew S. et. al. Human well-being impacts of terrestrial protected areas. BioMed
Central. October 28, 2013.
https://environmentalevidencejournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/2047-2382-2-
19. Accessed 21 Dec 2016.
Remo, Amy. Tourism contributes to P1.4T to GDP. Business/ Editor Picks. Philippine Daily
Inquirer, 2016. business.inquirer.net/208861/tourism-contributes-p1-4t-to-gdp. Accessed
21 Dec 2016
Robbins, David. Guidance for Improving Sanitation in El Salvadors Tourism Areas Through
Decentralized Wastewater Management Systems. RTI Press. June 2013.
www.rti.org/sites/default/files/resources/pb-0004-1306-robbins.pdf. Accessed 21 Dec
2016.
Roberts, Dev et. al. Forests Role in Tourism: Phase 1 Final Report. Research Contract for the
Forestry Commission. May 2000.
webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:http://www.forestry.gov.uk/pdf/touris
m.pdf/%24FILE/tourism.pdf. Accessed 20 Dec 2016.
Tourism. Aviation Benefits Beyond Borders. Geneva-based Air Transport Action Group.
aviationbenefits.org/social-development/tourism/. Accesses 21 Dec 2016.
22
Tourism Indicators through 2016. The World Bank. data.worldbank.org/indicator?tab=all.
Accessed 18 Dec 2016.
Tourist Safety and Security: Practical Measures for Destinations. World Tourism Organization
Network. 1996. rcm.unwto.org/publication/tourist-safety-and-security-practical-
measures-destinations. Accessed 21 Dec 2016.
Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2015 Philippines. World Travel and Tourism Council.
www.wttc.org/-/media/files/reports/economic-impact-research/countries-
2015/philippines2015.pdf Accessed 20 Dec 2016.
23
APPENDIX A
SAS Codes
PROC IMPORT OUT= WORK.survey
DATAFILE= "C:\Users\LENOVO\Desktop\Tour.xls"
DBMS=EXCEL2000 REPLACE;
SHEET="Sheet1$";
GETNAMES=YES;
RUN;
/*FACTOR ANALYSIS*/
PROC FACTOR DATA=WORK.survey METHOD=PRIN RE ROTATE=PROMAX NFACT=5
OUT=FACTORS;
VAR FOREST--SERVICES;
RUN;
24
/*DESCRIPTIVE STATS OF EACH CLUSTERS*/
PROC SORT DATA=CLUSTERED;
BY COUNTRY;
RUN;
DATA DESCRIPTIVE;
MERGE FACTORS CLUSTERED;
BY COUNTRY;
RUN;
PROC SORT DATA=DESCRIPTIVE;
BY CLUSTER;
RUN;
PROC MEANS DATA=DESCRIPTIVE;
VAR FACTOR1--FACTOR5;
BY CLUSTER;
RUN;
25
Appendix B
Countries under the Five Clusters
CLUSTER=1
2 Hungary CL7
4 Serbia CL7
5 Lebanon CL7
6 Montenegro CL7
7 Albania CL7
8 Fiji CL7
9 Georgia CL7
10 Tunisia CL7
11 Mauritius CL7
12 Ukraine CL7
13 Armenia CL7
15 Bahamas CL7
16 Cyprus CL7
17 Chile CL7
18 Argentina CL7
26
19 Belarus CL7
20 Philippines CL7
21 Vietnam CL7
22 Kazakhstan CL7
23 Honduras CL7
24 Panama CL7
25 El Salvador CL7
27 Ireland CL7
28 Jordan CL7
29 Algeria CL7
30 Bahrain CL7
31 Singapore CL7
32 Guyana CL7
35 Malaysia CL7
36 Azerbaijan CL7
37 Jamaica CL7
38 Myanmar CL7
39 Pakistan CL7
40 Gambia CL7
27
41 Paraguay CL7
42 Mexico CL7
43 Thailand CL7
44 Kuwait CL7
45 Oman CL7
46 Suriname CL7
48 Bangladesh CL7
49 Moldova CL7
50 Switzerland CL7
51 Qatar CL7
52 Turkey CL7
53 India CL7
54 Indonesia CL7
CLUSTER=2
55 Cambodia CL11
57 Cameroon CL11
58 Ghana CL11
59 Afghanistan CL11
28
60 Sudan CL11
61 Kenya CL11
62 Uganda CL11
63 Benin CL11
64 Nepal CL11
65 Tajikistan CL11
66 Nigeria CL11
67 Ethiopia CL11
68 Niger CL11
70 Senegal CL11
71 Zimbabwe CL11
72 Madagascar CL11
73 Mali CL11
74 Chad CL11
75 Gabon CL11
77 Togo CL11
79 Rwanda CL11
80 Bolivia CL11
81 Malawi CL11
29
82 Mozambique CL11
CLUSTER=3
84 Italy CL6
85 Spain CL6
86 Malta CL6
87 Portugal CL6
88 Belize CL6
89 Romania CL6
90 Latvia CL6
93 Morocco CL6
94 Estonia CL6
95 Lithuania CL6
96 Austria CL6
97 Bulgaria CL6
98 Croatia CL6
30
101 Trinidad and Tobago CL6
CLUSTER=4
31
120 Brazil CL5
CLUSTER=5
32