What does the Story of Dharavi Tell Us?

Managing the Urban population is becoming a bigger and more complex problem
every day. In particular, how do we treat the poor, who arrive in the cities by
thousands each day? hIore than a billion people (a third of the urban dwellers) live
in slums. Can we prmide jobs, food, shelter, water, and sanitation for all of them?
Such questions are likely to become more

pressing in the coming decades. This chapter looks at issues of population and
urbanization with reference to

environmental problems.

What is Meant by Population Explosion?

About 10,000 years ago, there were about 5 million people on earth, all hunter-
gatherers. Then came agriculture and settlements, the population started growing,
and by the fourteenth century the figure had reached 500 million. Thereafter, it
remained steady for about 500

years, until the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions took place in Europe. Between
1850 and 1950, the world population doubled to a figure of 2 billion. By that time,
exponential growth had set in and the 5 billion mark was reached in 1987

j " ' , and the 6 billion mark in 1999.

Key Idea World We now add 1 billion to the population every 12-1 3 years, but the
growth rate

population is , d 1. . . expected to reach 1s expected to ec me 1n the commg

decades. In early February 2015, the World
, 9.5 billion by 2050, population was 7.3 billion. By 2050, there will be about 9.6
billion on earth. Such a population is perhaps beyond the earths capacity to
support.

How is the Population Distributed in the World?

The land area covers only 30 0 of the earths surface and, of that area, 80% is not
conducive to human settlement. This includes deserts, the Polar regions, tropical
rainforests, tundra,

and the like.

There is heavy concentration of population in the coastal zones. Although they

account for only 2% of the worlds total land area, approximately 13" o of the
worlds urban p0pulation lives in these zones---with Asia having a higher
concentration. Again, many of the megacities of the world are on the coasts.

There is a stark difference in the population growth pattern between the developing
and the industrialized nations. Nearly 99 0 of all population increase now takes
place in developing countries, While the population size is static or declining in the
industrialized nations. Among the major industrialized nations, only the US has
significant population growth, mainly because of immigration. .

The low birth rates in industrialized countries are beginning to challenge the health
and financial security of their senior citizens. On the other hand, the developing
countries add over 80 million to the population every year and the poorest of those
countries add 20 million. This worsens poverty levels and threatens the
environment.

Table 16.1 lists the 10 most populous countries and shows how the list is likely to
change between 2010 and 2050. Of the three industrialized countries in the list
now, only the US is
expected to remain in the top 10 in 2050.

How is Population Growth Measured?

The common measures of population growth are:

0 Crude birth rate: The number of live births per 1000 people in a population in a
given

year 0 Crude death rate: The number of deaths per 1000 people in a population in a
given year 0 Annual population growth rate = Crude blrth rate _ CHE-f deih TEE X
100 1000 w, Table 16.2 gives the birth and death rates in different areas of the
world as of 2014:. TABLE 16.2 Average crude birth and death rates (2014 estimates)
Area/Country : 9 Crude birth'rate --Crude death rate,( , Growth rate % i World .
18.70 7.89 1 .06 India . . 19.89 ' 7.35 1.25 China . 12.17 i 7.44 0.44 .4 us 13.42. ,
8.15 f 0.77 .. Germany, . a @412. . . ' I 11-29.; ' ~0-18

Source: Based on the data from CIA World Factbook

What is the Scale of Urbanization in the World?

The UN Report on World Urbaniaation Prospects (2014 Revision) provides the

following key facts:

0 Globally, 54 0 of the worlds population resides in urban areas in 2014. By 2050,

66%

of the worlds population is projected to be urban. 0 The most urbanized regions

today include Northern America, Latin America, and
Europe. In contrast, Africa and Asia remain mostly rural, with 40" o and 48 0 of
their respective populations living in urban areas. However, these regions are
urbanizing faster than the other regions.

0 The rural population of the world has grown slowly since 1950 and is expected to
reach its peak in a few years. Africa and Asia are home to nearly 9070 of the
worlds

rural population. India has the largest rural population (850 million), followed by
China (635 million).

0 The urban population of the world has grown rapidly since 1950, from 746 million
to 3.9 billion in 2014. Asia is home to 53 0 of the worlds urban population.
Continuing population growth and urbanization are projected to add 2.5 billion
people to the worlds urban population by 2050.

0 Just three countries-India, China, and Nigeria-together are expected to account for
370}; of the projected growth of the worlds urban population between 2014 and
2050. India is projected to add 404 million urban dwellers, China 292 million, and
Nigeria 2 12 million.

0 Close to half of the worlds urban dwellers reside in relatively small settlements of
less than 500,000 inhabitants.

15;!

he world

eran , 0 As the world continues to urbanize, sustainable development challenges

2050,. will be increasingly concentrated in cities, particularly in the lower-
middle)pulatlon . . . . .
cities income countries where the pace of urbanizatlon IS fastest. Integrat

ed policies to improve the lives of both urban and rural dwellers are needed.

eWorlds Large Cities Growing? 7ab1e 16.3 lists the 10 largest cities in 2014 and the
expected rankings in 2030.

; Key Idea Delhi and I We can see the rapid growth of the cities of the developing
wodd between

j Mumbai are among 2014and 2030. Note that the two largest metros of India an: in
the 2030 list. the 10 largest cities of r

the world. What is Meant by Urban Sprawl?

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Urban sprawl refers to the unplanned and uncontrolled spreading of urban

development into areas adjoining the edge of a city. In the industrialized countries
like the US, urban sprawl leads to low-density suburbs, where the residents depend
primarily on automobiles for all their movements-to go to work) for shopping, etc.

In the developing countries like India, urban sprawl just means the unplanned
expansion of cities into neighbouring rural are as. Real estate developers and even
the official development authorities convert farmlands into residential layouts to
meet the housing needs of the even increasing urban population. The new areas
often lack proper roads, public transportation, water supply and sewage systems,
shopping areas, and so on.
Many cities in India do have master plans to ensure proper development and
expansion with the required infrastructure including green zones. But these plans
are often violated by developers and even modified by governments under pressure
from various groups.

[hat is Driving Urbanization and What is Its Implication?

For the poor rural inhabitant facing problems of drought, discrimination, and
deprivation, the city offers What the person desperately needs-employment. Most of
the worlds economic activities take place in cities and even a person without any
skills can almost always find something to do in a city. The city also offers the hope
of a better life with comforts not available in most rural areas. ' Increasing
urbanization, however, places enormous pressure on the local resources of the city.
As the city grows, its Ecological Footprint (Chapter 1) grows even faster.
Environmental problems increase: water scarcity intensifies, more and more waste
piles up, the air quality drops, public transport gets overloaded, trafiic jams
increase, and so on. Governments and civic bodies are finding it increasingly difiicult
to provide and maintain adequate water supply, sanitation, sewage systems,
housing, roads, transportation, power supply, and other infrastructure for the
citizens. Things get much worse when disasters like

monsoon floods and epidemics strike the city.

What are the Environmental Implications of Population Growth and Urbanization?

Population growth and urbanization will place greater pressures on the natural
resources, but there are eco-frlendly alternative measures that would mitigate the
problems:

0 Land: There will be increasing takeover of land for human settlements. Expanding
cities will encroach into the surrounding areas, converting any kind of land,
including fertile flelds. Land will also be needed for infrastructure like roads,
highways, industries, tourist facilities, and educational complexes. Better land-use
planning, creation of
satellite towns, and similar measures are necessary. 0 Food: Even as the number of
mouths to feed

keeps increasing, our ability to produce enough food is being tested. Unless there is
a second Green Revolution, which does not demand high inputs as the first one did,
it will be difficult to feed all the millions.

0 Forests: We can expect increasing encroachment of forest areas and exploitation

of forest resources. It will become increasingly difficult to protect reserved forests
and national parks. The only way is to make the local people partners in
conservation.

0 Water supply and sanitation: Water scarcity will become more severe and
sanitation targets will

Cities are expanding con tinuous/y Credit: lndiaPicture/Mahatta Multimedia Pvt. Ltd

not be met unless water conservation measures and ecological sanitation are
aggressively implemented. 0 Energy resources: F uelwood and conventional energy
sources will have problems of

scarcity and higher prices, unless wood plantations are encouraged and renewable

energy sources are promoted. 0 Housing and buildings: The shortage of housing,
which is already a problem, will

become severe in the future. Further, houses and other buildings consume large
amounts of natural resources during construction and use. There is a need to
implement mass housing and green construction using the principles of ecological
architecture.
What are Green Buildings and Ecological Architecture?

Brick and concrete houses (that are hot in summer and cold in winter) with
Malaysian wood, Italian marble, and German bathroom fittings-that is the
architecture in our cities and even smaller towns. The Ecological Footprints of such
buildings are enormous and this approach is clearly not sustainable in the long run.
The way out is ecological architecture, which leads to green buildings. The
approach seeks to minimize the Ecological Footprint of the

house, building, or complex that is being designed and constructed. The primary
objective of green architecture is not to reduce cost, but to minimize

the burden that the unit imposes on nature. There is likely to be a saving in cost,
but that should be seen as a bonus. Often, green architecture involves more labour
than mainstream

architecture does, but that is desirable in a country like India. In practice, ecological
architecture follows principles such as the following:

' Use material available nearby, in the same town, state or at worst in the country;
do not in any case use imported material, even if it is less expensive. When there is
a choice, use material that can be reused when the building is demolished.

' Minimize use of material like burnt bricks, cement and steel that consume energy
during manufacture, replace them with natural materials like mud; earth blocks can
be

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111 p1 actice, ecological a1chitecture follows principles such as the following.

' Use material available nearby, 1n the same town, state or at worst in the country;
do not in any case use imported material, even if it is less expensive. When there is
a choice use material that can be reused when the building is demolished.

Minimize use of material like burnt bricks, cement and steel that consume energy
during manufacture; replace them with natural materials like mud; earth blocks can
be made on site using the soil from the foundation, if appropriate for block-making.

' Choose the wood of trees that you can plant to repay your debt to nature.

Minimize finishing work that costs time and money without adding real value:
plaster. ing, Whitewashing, sandpapering, polishing, painting, etc. Use natural
herbal mixtures for protection against termites, etc.

0 Use or dispose of waste material in the construction: For example, use broken tiles
for bathroom walls, bury plastic bags from the neighbourhood under the foundation,
use discarded styrofoam sheets as fillers in concrete slabs.

0 Use options that would save energy: Examples are skylights to allow more natural
light into the building, LED lamps, solar systems for power and hot water, etc.

0 Recycle waste water and use ecological sanitation.

There are now architects in India who practise exclusively ecological architecture.
Many of
them were inspired by Laurie Baker (V isitORC for the story of his life and work).
What will be the Impact of Climate Change on Cities?

Cities do contribute to climate change, but cities also feel the impact of climate
change In 201 l, the UN Human Settlements Programme released Cities and
Climate Change: Global Report on Human Settlements. The key findings of the
Report are given in Box 16.2.

What are the International lnitlatives in Populatiomelated issues?

A major UN initiative was the International Conference on Population and

Development (ICPD) held in Cairo in 1994. It was agreed in Cairo that:

* population policies should address social development beyond family planning

D family planning should be provided as part of a broader package of reproduetim

health care; and

' if we improve the status and health of women and protect their rights, lwer
{enmity and slower population growth will follow.

The Cairo Conference set the following goals for the period 1995-2015: . Provide
universal access to a full range of safe and reliable family planning methods

and related reproductive health services.

0 Reduce infant mortality rates to below 35 infant deaths per 1000 live births and
under~ five mortality rates to below 45 deaths of children under age five per 1000
live births.
0 Close the gap in maternal mortality between developing and developed countries.
Aim to achieve a maternal mortality rate below 60 deaths per 100,000 live births.

0 Increase life expectancy at birth to more than 75 years. In countries with the
highest mortality, aim to increase life expectancy at birth to more than 70 years.

0 Achieve universal access to and completion of primary education; ensure the

widest and

earliest possible access by girls and women to secondary and higher levels of
education.

Since 1994, there has been uneven progress in the implementation of these goals.
hlany countries that have made attempts could not marshal the resources and
organizational capacity necessary for addressing such a wide range of health and
social concerns. Enough funding did not come from donor agencies to implement
the decisions.

In 2013, the UN International Meeting on Monitoring and Implementation of the

ICPD Beyond 2014 overwhelmingly supported the consensus that investing in
individual

sustainable development. In d the findings of the Review

d emerging challenges.

human rights, capabilities, and dignity is the foundation of 2014, a Special Session
of the UN General Assembly endorse

and governments committed to intensified efforts to address gaps an

What has been the Growth Pattern of Indias Population? Table 16.4 shows how
Indias population has grOwn since 1901.

Indias population was nearly 1.29 billion in early 2015. We can see five phases in
the growth of the population in India:

1901-1921 : Stagnant population

1921-1951: Steady growth

1951-l 981 : Rapid high growth

1981-2001: High growth (with some signs of slowing down) 0

2001-2011: Slowdown in growth

Some features of Indias population (according to the 2011 census) are:

0 India with only 2.40 o of the worlds surface area accounts for 16.9% of its

population. 0 Key Idea India 0 India has more than 50% of its population below the
age of 25 and more 7 with only 2.4% of the than 65 0 below the age of 35. It is
expected that, by 2020, the average age worlds surface area of an Indian will be 29
years, compared to 37 for China and 4-8 forjapan.

; accounts for 16.9% of

its population 0 The literacy rate is 73 0.

0 2800 religions and 6600 languages are represented in India.

What has been Indias Response to the Population Growth?

India was the first country in the world to start a family planning programme. It was
launched in 1952, when our population was about 400 million. Fifty years and many
programmes

later, we have more than 1 billion people. By 2050, we will be the most populous
country in the world.

Successive Five Year Plans reflected a broadening of the family planning programme
to provide comprehensive maternal, child, and reproductive health care. In 1976,
when forced sterilizations were attempted, there was resistance. The next
government shifted the emphasis to voluntary family planning and its integration
with overall maternal and child health programmes.

The Eighth Five Year Plan (1992-1997) launched the Child Survival and Safe
Motherhood Programme. Efforts were made to provide antenatal, intra-natal, and
post-natal care to women. It is clear, however, the goal of stabilizing the population
is still far away.

Poverty, low literacy and education levels among women, lack of consistent support
from the government, poor planning, and bureaucratic inefficiency are some of the
reasons why the family planning programme has not been a big success. Poverty
drives many people to have more children so that there will be more working
members in the family. The desire to

have male children is also a factor in increasing the family size. Though 90% of all
couples know of at least one birth control method, less than 50 0 actually use one.

What Lies Ahead?

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India and many other developing countries will face the prospect of unmanageable
numbers unless urgent steps are taken to reduce the birth rate. Even if the birth
rates are reduced now, it will take decades before the population growth starts
slowing down.

We began the chapter with the case of Dharavi. There are hundreds of slums in
Indian cities, most of them in much worse condition than Dharavi. According to
estimates, 20250/0 of Indias urban families live in slums, squatter settlements, or
refugee colonies. How do we handle the unceasing migration of the rural poor into
cities? How can we improve the conditions in the villages so that people do not
migrate at all? How do we find space to live and provide basic facilities for those
who do come to the cities? Such questions will become increasingly pressing in the
coming years.

Ending on a hopeful note: Positive stories

'0 Curitiba, the ecocity of Brazil (Box 16.3) 0 The post-plague transformation of
Surat in Gujarat (Box 16.4)

What are the international Initiatives in Population related Issues?

A major UN initiative was the International Conference on Population and

Development (ICPD) held in Cairo in 1994. It was agreed in Cairo that:

' population policies should address social development beyond family planning"

' family planning should be provided as part of a broader package of reproductise

health care; and
' if we improve the status and health of women and protect their rights, lower
fertility

and slower population growth will follow. The Cairo Conference set the following
goals for the period 1995-2015:

. Provide universal access to a full range of safe and reliable family planning
methods

and related reproductive health services. 0 Reduce infant mortality rates to below
35 infant deaths per 1000 live births and under

five mortality rates to below 45 deaths of children under age five per 1000 live
births.

0 Close the gap in maternal mortality between developing and developed countries.
Aim to achieve a maternal mortality rate below 60 deaths per 100,000 live births.

0 Increase life expectancy at birth to more than 75 years. In countries with the
highest mortality, aim to increase life expectancy at birth to more than 70 years.

0 Achieve universal access to and completion of primary education; ensure the

widest and earliest possible access by girls and women to secondary and higher
levels of education

Since 1994, there has been uneven progress in the implementation of these goals.
hiany countries that have made attempts could not marshal the resources and
organizational capacity necessary for addressing such a wide range of health and
social concerns. Enough funding did not come from donor agencies to implement
the decisions.
In 2013, the UN International Meeting on Monitoring and Implementation of the
ICPD Beyond 2014 overwhelmingly supported the consensus that investing in
individual