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Introduction
function or equation, which will tell a person what the conditions will be
and studied.
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Glenn Habibi
www.epa.gov/globalwarming/climate/index.html)
all, one must keep in mind the loss of information due to rounding
(Note that in the 1960s, the computers of the time were hardly
equations that describe weather factors are coupled, thus the future
only varies with time but with total displacement as well. In such a
chaotically.
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weather values.
221)
following form:
ρ Du/Dt = F - ∇ p - Π u
For simplicity, this vector equation is used to study only unit volumes
gravity (Fg) and the Coriolis force (Fc) caused by the Earth’s rotation:
F = Fg + Fc
Fc = -2ρ (ω Xu) – The Coriolis force is related to the mass and the
cross product between the angular velocity ω and the linear velocity of
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(which is the reason for the minus sign and the unit vector k, which is
defined as follows:
Π u = µ ρ ∇ 2u
phenomena for a spherical atmosphere on the Earth, for this raised too
directions respectively. When one does this and then divides both
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sides of the equation by ρ , for simplicity, the following equation for the
x direction is found:
expressed as:
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The above three equations detail how forces affect a unit volume of air
conductivity. This equation helps one predict the rate at which heat
energy will diffuse through the air, or how quickly a unit mass of air will
equation states that the rate of change of mass per unit volume of air
must equal the rate of gas transfer across the boundary surfaces of the
Dρ /Dt = -∇•(ρ u)
did not change rapidly, making the quantity ∂ρ /∂t nearly zero.
Realizing that ρ does not vary a great deal, it can be factored out of
ρ *∇•u = 0
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below:
At this point, it becomes clear that solving these six equations for six
First, the total derivatives in the above six equations must be replaced
below:
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The function ψ has been defined such that its derivative with respect
Next, Saltzman eliminated the pressure P between the first and the
unknowns:
utilized to derive the functions for u and w, which in turn will permit
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dX/dt = X’ = -σ X + σ Y
dY/dt = Y’ = -XZ + rX – Y
dZ/dt = Z’ = XY – bZ
the Fourier series, which will then be used to find functions for ψ and
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where X, Y, and Z are the three coordinate axes (Gleick, 126). Phase
distances in the air, they are hypothetical values of expressions (in this
coordinates that define this abstract type of space. The above three
of all, Lorenz noted that this portrayal has a tendency to “orbit” about
two points in phase space, these points are aptly called attractors. In
different from each other point on the graph. Next, I subject the
Procedure
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number of iterations (n). The total range of time therefore runs from
loop to compute the new values of X, Y, and Z based on the old values
with this procedure, the goal is to have the longest amount of time
very large, but still within reason for memory space purposes. In order
to study error for a given range, a computer program was run, which
proportionally). This procedure was run repeatedly and the final point
of the attractor was recorded for each run. The difference between
these final point values was used to determine the degree of the error.
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Theoretically, the final point values for identical starting point values
less, the final points were extremely close to one another, with error of
the 10-7 th degree. However, as soon as the total time passage value
below:
1.6
1.4
Absolute Error
1.2
1 Error in X
0.8 Error in Y
0.6 Error in Z
0.4
0.2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Dimensionless Time
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At this point, it became clear that perhaps the cause of this error is
subsequently the third order terms of the Taylor Series. The second
X’’ = dX’/dt = -σ X’ + σ Y’
compute the numerical values of X’, Y’, and Z’, which are then used to
compute the second and then third derivatives. The Taylor Series can
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the fourth order produced nearly identical results (As shown in Tables
2 and 3).
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2.00E+01
1.50E+01
Absolute Error
1.00E+01 Error in X
Error in Y
5.00E+00 Error in Z
0.00E+00
0 10 20 30 40 50
-5.00E+00
Dimensionless Time
3.50E+01
3.00E+01
Absolute Error
2.50E+01
2.00E+01 Error in X
1.50E+01 Error in Y
1.00E+01 Error in Z
5.00E+00
0.00E+00
-5.00E+00 0 10 20 30 40 50
Dimensionless Time
At this point, it has become obvious that the attractor is indeed a very
plane, and the Y-Z plane. For clarity, the distance from each point in
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Discussion
for X, Y, and Z as functions of time in the range 0 < t < 20. The sharp
0 Time 20
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time. The reason for this seems to be apparent when one observes the
above graph. It appears that the extrema that are present are
Since Runge Kutta to the fourth order seemingly did not present a
consistent solution, this raises the question of to what level does this
was studied with this method instead. Since this function can be
The reason for the selection of this function is that the sin function will
exponential changes the point about which the function oscillates. The
numerically solve for X as a function of time in the range 0 < t < 12.5,
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three charts, the red is the exact function, as stated above, where the
12.5
∆ t = 0.05 (above)
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12.5
∆ t = 0.01 (above)
As seen above, with more points and less time between those points,
discrepancies are much smaller. Since the next terms in the Runge
Kutta series are yet smaller, it is clear that four terms seems to be
12.5
∆ t = 0.001 (above)
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fact, the two graphs are so close to one another that it appears as
Conclusion
predict the effects of forces on matter, and realize what forces must be
Attractor, the very heart of the solution, remains unsolvable over long
periods of time, even with the most modern scientific analysis and
Computer Programs
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End Sub
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Print "--->DeltaX= "; x - xiter; " DeltaY = "; y - yiter; " DeltaZ= "; z
- ziter
xiter = x ' Save the values to compare with the next iteration
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yiter = y
ziter = z
End If
Next j
End Sub
For i = 1 To N
Rem Update the x,y,z point
k1x = Deltat * Sigma * (y - x)
k1y = Deltat * (-x * z - y + r * x)
k1z = Deltat * (x * y - b * z)
k2x = Deltat * Sigma * ((y + 0.5 * k1y) - (x + 0.5 * k1x))
k2y = Deltat * (-(x + 0.5 * k1x) * (z + 0.5 * k1z) - (y + 0.5 * k1y) + r *
(x + 0.5 * k1x))
k2z = Deltat * ((x + 0.5 * k1x) * (y + 0.5 * k1y) - b * (z + 0.5 * k1z))
k3x = Deltat * Sigma * ((y + 0.5 * k2y) - (x + 0.5 * k2x))
k3y = Deltat * (-(x + 0.5 * k2x) * (z + 0.5 * k2z) - (y + 0.5 * k2y) + r *
(x + 0.5 * k2x))
k3z = Deltat * ((x + 0.5 * k2x) * (y + 0.5 * k2y) - b * (z + 0.5 * k2z))
k4x = Deltat * Sigma * ((y + k3y) - (x + k3x))
k4y = Deltat * (-(x + k3x) * (z + k3z) - (y + k3y) + r * (x + k3x))
k4z = Deltat * ((x + k3x) * (y + k3y) - b * (z + k3z))
Works Cited
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Glenn Habibi
www.epa.gov/globalwarming/climate/index.html
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