AMA1006 Basic Statistics

Assignment 1

Due1 at 17:00, February 27, 2017, Monday. Please submit your homework into the assignment
box at floor 7 or 8, core T. The assignment box will be available for about one week ahead of the
deadline, and with the lecturers name printed on the front.
The markers of the assignments are research students from department AMA. Please show your
courtesy to them by boxing your final solutions, like:

...therefore the desired probability is P (A) = 0.334 .

Full marks: 100.

1. (10 marks) To test the quality of a shipment of crystal glasses, we selected 62 glasses at random.
We found that two were scratched and chipped, three had only scratches, and five were only
chipped. We randomly select two glasses, X and Y , out of these 62 ones. Consider the
following events: A : {X is chipped}, and B : {Y is scratched }. Determine the relative
frequencies of A, B, A B, and A B. Are the events A and B independent?

2. (20 marks)

a. If two balanced2 dice are rolled, what is the probability that the sum of the two numbers
that appear is odd?
b. If two balanced dice are rolled, what is the probability that the sum of the two numbers
that appear is even?
c. If two balanced dice are rolled, what is the probability that the difference between the
two numbers that appear will be no less than 5?
d. If three fair3 coins are tossed, what is the probability that all three faces will be the same?

3. (20 marks) How many different ways can one make a 5-digit number using digits 1, 2, , 9
(but not 0), such that

a. each digit appears at most once?

b. each digit appears at most twice?
c. each digit may appear any times?
d. each digit appears at most once and digits in the number appear in an ascending order
(like 13456 but not 14365)?

Hint: Think each digit as a card. In (a) you have 9 such cards but in (b) you have 18. Use
multiplicative rule for (c) and combinations rule for (d).
1
FAQ: What if I am sick on the day of deadline? ANS: you are encouraged to submit the assignment days before the
deadline; in the worst case scenario you may take photos of your whole assignment and email it to the lecturer before the
deadline and we will print it out, and submit it to the marker for you; otherwise you would need a medical certificate for
us to accept your late submission.
2
A balanced die is a die that each face would show up with equal probability 1/6.
3
A fair coin is a coin that each of the two faces would turn up with equal probability 1/2.

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4. (10 marks) A box contains 24 light bulbs, of which two are defective. If Tom selects 10 bulbs
at random, without replacement (which means that Tom will never place any bulb he selected,
back into the box), what is the probability that both defective bulbs will be selected? What is
the probability that only one defective bulbs will be selected?

5. (20 marks) In USA Today (Sept.5,1996) the results of a survey involving the use of sleep wear
while travelling were listed as follows:

Male Female Total

Underwear 0.220 0.024 0.244
Nightgown 0.002 0.180 0.182
Nothing 0.160 0.018 0.178
Pajamas 0.102 0.073 0.175
T-shirt 0.046 0.088 0.134
Other 0.084 0.003 0.087

a. What is the probability that a traveler is a male who sleeps in the nude (wearing Noth-
ing)?
b. What is the probability that a traveler is female?
c. Assuming the traveler is a female, what is the probability that she sleeps in pajamas?
d. What is the probability that a traveler is male, given that the traveler sleeps in Underwear
or a T-shirt?

6. (10 marks) The probability that a vehicle entering the Luray Caverns has Canadian license
plates is 0.17; the probability that it is a camper is 0.38; and the probability that it is a camper
with Canadian license plates is 0.12. What is the probability that

a. a camper entering the Luray Caverns has Canadian license plates?

b. a vehicle with Canadian license plates entering the Luray Caverns is a camper?
c. a vehicle entering the Luray Caverns is neither a Canadian plates holder, nor a camper?

7. (10 marks) In a certain region of the country it is known from the past experience that among
the adults over 40 years of age, 1% have cancer. With the state-of-the-art diagnostic technol-
ogy, if an adult has cancer, there is a probability of 0.88 that a medical test will give a positive
response; whereas, if an adult does not have cancer, there is a probability of only 0.02 that the
test will still give a positive response. Suppose Tom, an adult over 40, has just got a positive
response in this test, what is the probability that he has cancer? Suppose John, an adult over
40, has just got a negative response in this test, what is the probability that he does not have
cancer?