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Aventis a t cr en 1998 par fusion entre le groupe pharmaceutique allemand Hoescht et Rhne
Poulenc qui ont d pralablement cder leurs actifs non pharmaceutiques (Rhodia, Celanese, ).
Sanofi Synthlabo estime que Aventis est le meilleur partenaire pour un rapprochement pour les
raisons suivantes :
Sanofi Synthlabo rflchit aux modalits dun rapprochement avec Aventis : sens de lopration,
niveau de prime payer, prsence de numraire dans loffre, amicabilit ou hostilit de loffre,
impact sur le BPA,
Questions
6. Dans un rapprochement Sanofi Synthlabo / Aventis, qui a le plus de chance dtre linitiateur
et qui la cible ? Pourquoi ?
7. Quels sont les intrts et les inconvnients dintroduire une certaine dose de numraire dans
une offre ? Quen pensez-vous au cas particulier ?
8. Lacquisition dun des deux groupes par lautre peut-il tre financ entirement par
endettement ? Pourquoi ?
9. Si la valeur des synergies nettes peut tre estime 8 Md 1, quelle est, dun point de vue
financier, la prime maximum que peut payer Sanofi Synthlabo sans que lopration de
rapprochement soit destructrice de valeur pour ses actionnaires ?
10. En supposant pour simplifier que les synergies produisent 100 % de leurs effets partir du 1er
janvier 2005, quel est limpact dune opration avec 10, 20 ou 30 % de prime sur le dernier
cours de 2003 et 0 ou 30 % de loffre en numraire sur les BPA 2005 et 2006 de Sanofi
Synthlabo ? Le cot de lendettement est estim 4 % avant impt 35 %. Quen pensez-
vous ? Le niveau de lendettement du nouveau groupe vous parait-il acceptable ?
11. Comment se rpartirait alors la valeur cre par le rapprochement entre les actionnaires de
Sanofi Synthlabo et ceux dAventis ? Retrouvez-vous votre rponse la question 9 ?
12. Quel est alors le cours thorique de Sanofi dans les 6 cas envisags ? Cela vous parait-il
logique avec la conclusion dgage la question 11 ? Pourquoi ?
13. Quels sont les inconvnients et les avantages dune offre publique non sollicite (ou hostile)
compars ceux dune offre amicale ?
14. Que pensez-vous de lvolution du cours de bourse de Sanofi Aventis depuis le 1er janvier
2004 ? Quest-ce qui explique cette performance ? A laune de quels critres peut-on dire que
ce rapprochement est une russite ?
1
Compte tenu dun montant annuel avant impt 35 % de 1,6 Md atteint 3 ans aprs la fusion et de cot
de restructuration avant impt de 1,6 Md.
7 Actionnariat dAventis
Bilan consolid
Rentabilits
Bilan consolid
Rentabilits
Garder Acheter
35%
60%
5%
Vendre
Paramtres boursiers
ralis estim
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Cours le plus haut en 85,8 83,8 59,7
Cours le plus bas en 53,4 52,3 41,8
Dernier cours de l'anne en 83,8 58,3 59,7
Nombre d'actions en M 732 732 733 733 733 733
Bnfice par action en 2,18 2,53 2,85 3,42 4,01 4,52
PER 38,5 23,0 21,0
Dividende net par action en 0,66 0,84 1,02
Rendement en % 0,8% 1,4% 1,7%
Taux de distribution en % 30% 33% 36%
Capitalisation boursire en M 61 340 42 659 43 751
Capitaux propres comptables, part du groupe, en M 5 768 6 035 6 323
Capitalisation boursire/capitaux propres comptables 10,6 7,1 6,9
Acheter
Garder
40% 49%
Vendre 11%
Paramtres boursiers
ralis anticip
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Cours le plus haut en 94,3 85,8 54,1
Cours le plus bas en 68,5 50,0 38,1
Dernier cours de l'anne en 79,8 51,8 52,4
Nombre d'actions en M 788 793 786 786 786 786
Bnfice courant par action en 3,03 2,90 3,61 4,08 4,27 4,64
PER 26,3 17,9 14,5
Dividende net par action en 0,58 0,70 0,82
Rendement en % 0,7% 1,4% 1,6%
Taux de distribution en % 19% 24% 23%
Capitalisation boursire en M 62 843 41 077 41 186
Capitaux propres comptables, part du groupe, en M 14 512 12 847 11 884
Capitalisation boursire/capitaux propres comptables 4,3 3,2 3,5
ANNEXE 5 : Evolution depuis 1998 des cours de bourse de Sanofi Synthlabo et dAventis
100
90
80
Aventis
70
60
50
Sanofi-Synthlabo
40
30
20
10
0
janv.- juil.- janv.- juil.- janv.- juil.- janv.- juil.- janv.- juil.- janv.- juil.-
98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03
Total : 24,5 %
LOral : 19,5 %
Autodtention : 5,0 %
Flottant : 51,0 %
---------
100 %
Total et LOral agissent, au sein de Sanofi Synthlabo, de concert en vertu dun pacte qui vient
chance en dcembre 2004. Ils se concertent donc avant de voter en assemble des
actionnaires et pour les grandes dcisions soumises au conseil dadministration. Ils sont
actionnaires fondateurs respectivement de Sanofi et de Synthlabo.
Flottant : 86,5 %
----------
100 %
The world market for prescription drugs is a collection of national markets across which world-class
pharmaceutical corporations evolve. With healthcare spending rising faster than anywhere and population
ageing underway, drug manufacturers were amongst the first to battle cost-containment initiatives and patent
challenges. Swift changes in the industrys client base and consolidation have changed the rules of the game:
the stakes are rising for pharmaceutical companies.
A $500bn industry
one hand and that between Sanofi-Synthelabo and 3. GlaxoSmithKline 31.4 7.2
Aventis on the other. The five largest drug 4. Merck & Co. 22.9 5.2
5. Johnson & Johnson 22.1 5.0
manufacturers accounted for 35.1 % of the market for
6. AstraZeneca 20.9 4.7
prescriptions drugs in 2004, up from 31 % in 1999.
7. Novartis 18.5 4.2
As illustrated in Table 2, individual market shares are
8. Roche 17.5 4.0
low and fairly evenly distributed across drug
9. Bristol-Myers Squibb 15.5 3.5
manufacturers.
10. Abbott Laboratories 13.3 3.0
Source: Deutsche Bank, Global Pharmaceuticals,
05/08/2005
* Pro forma
Oligopolistic market structures
The winner-takes-all nature of the industry also goes some way towards explaining oligopolistic competition. Past
evidence suggests that the first product to reach the market generally commands the greatest market share within its
class. The battle between Viagra and Muse illustrates the importance of reaching patients and physicians first: the former
now accounts for 91 % of the market for sexual-function disorder treatments, four years after its launch. The competition
between Celebrex and Vioxx in the market for Cox-2 inhibitors, also known as anti-inflammatory drugs, points in the
same direction: Vioxx was launched six months after Celebrex, and has lagged behind its competitor since then.
Generic competition is one of the largest and oldest threats to the sales of a branded drug. Once patent protection
expires, a branded drug is very likely to face competition from generic versions of the active molecule. A generic drug is
identical or bioequivalent to a brand name drug in dosage, form, safety, strength, route of administration, quality,
performance characteristics and intended use. Although generic drugs are chemically identical to their branded
counterparts, they are sold at a substantial discount. Depending upon the number of entrants, it is not unusual to see
generic prices in the US market at only 20-25% of those of the patented product. This is because they do not have to go
through the lengthy and expensive process of drug discovery and clinical trials. Nowadays, according to Deutsche
2
Bank , most large drugs facing patent expiry can expect to lose between 70% and 80% of their monthly US revenues
within two months of expiry.
The extent of generic erosion varies in different geographic Table 4: Generics as a % of total
markets according to legislation and doctors cost prescription volume in the US, 1984-2004
awareness. Erosion of branded drugs tends to be the most
rapid in the US, driven by the profit opportunity and the
attempts of private health insurers to keep costs under
control. In addition, it is worth noting that the price
differential between branded and generic drugs is much
greater in the US as compared to many other countries. As
illustrated, in 2004, generics accounted for over 56% of
the prescription drugs market by volume in the US. One
might have expected that where government bodies are the
central purchasers, i.e. in Europe and in Japan, generics
would also hold a large share of end-markets and that
conversion from a branded drug to a generic would be
rapid. This, however, is generally not the case: it is only
really in the UK and Germany that generic erosion occurs at Source: Deutsche Bank, Global
a significant pace because doctors in these countries has
Pharmaceuticals, 05/08/2005
incentives to be cost conscious.
Pharmaceutical companies spend heavily on R&D in the hope of discovering successor drugs capable of
driving growth in sales once key products lose patent protection. The threat from generics has encouraged
2
Deustche Bank, Global Pharmaceuticals, 05/08/2005
them to invest an increasing share of their sales in this field. The sharp rise in the cost of bringing new
medicines to market has penalised productivity growth in pharmaceutical R&D.
Numerous studies have pinpointed increases in the cost of bringing medicines to market. Figures from PhRMA suggest it
has grown exponentially over the years, from around $230 million in the late 1980s to around $900 in 2004. The high-risk
nature of pharmaceutical research goes a long way towards explaining the rise in development costs. Changes in
disease focus and the consumer landscape which have led to larger and longer clinical trials account for part of the
increase.
Pharmaceutical research is high-risk. Pharmaceutical research involves by its very nature a significant
amount of risk and uncertainty. Often 1,000 or more compounds are screened for each one that is ultimately
selected for development. On average, for every 5 compounds that reach development stage, only one gains
FDA approval (Table 5). According to the Boston Consulting Group, around 75 % of the cost of developing of a
new drug can be attributed to failures along the way.
Table 5: The average number candidates screened for every one drug than reaches the market
Larger and longer clinical trials. A study conducted by the Boston Consulting Group revealed the number of
clinical trial participants and the number of studies per drug carried out to back a drugs first New Drug Approval
increased substantially over the past decades. There is considerable disagreement, however, as to the reason
behind the increase in the number of trials.
The impact of new technology. Pharmaceutical companies have been investing heavily in new technologies
in an attempt to improve productivity of early-stage research. Data-warehousing, high-throughput screening and
combinatorial chemistry all promise to make drug design faster, cheaper and more accurate. Since three
quarters of the cost of developing a new drug can be attributed to failed hypotheses, killing unpromising
approaches sooner could also yield substantial savings. This increased reliance on information technology has
driven the cost of research and development upwards in the short-term. There is little consensus regarding how
soon this investment will pay back.
Measuring the productivity of the pharmaceutical industry and the ultimate impact of the R&D effort is notoriously hard
because the payoff from such an investment takes a considerable amount of time to materialize. R&D in the current
period promotes new drug development far into the future. For this reason, it is possible to claim that the full impact of
increased research and development spending over the past decade has not have borne all its fruit.
The pharmaceutical industry is research driven. Drug manufacturers invest heavily in R&D in the hope of
identifying promising drug candidates capable of fuelling growth in sales once their established products lose
protection. However, the trend towards larger R&D budgets has put pharmaceutical companies under
considerable strain: the rising cost of drug discovery and development restrains the number of potential drugs
they can afford to bring to market, hence substantially increasing the level of operating risk. Pharmaceutical
companies unable to sustain sky-rocketing R&D budgets have turned to mergers and acquisitions as a means
of lowering the strain on their organisations whilst improving their drug development capabilities. Business
combinations borne out of defensive considerations have and will continue to shape the industry.
42% 41%
34%
32%
30% 29% 30%
27%
24% 25%
3%
Legrand
Sefimeg
Coflexip
CCF
Labinal
GTM
Elf
Paribas
Promodes
Comptoirs Modernes
Dexia
AGF
Sidel
Sommer Allibert
Natexis
Pechiney
Seita
Simco
Transactions en cash
Transactions en actions
10
8
France
5 Allemagne
0
19/02/1991 19/02/1992 19/02/1993 19/02/1994 19/02/1995 19/02/1996 19/02/1997 19/02/1998 19/02/1999 19/02/2000 19/02/2001 19/02/2002 19/02/2003
Source : Bloomberg
Sauf indication contraire, les taux de croissance dans ce communiqu sont donnes
comparables et sont calculs sur des chiffres 2004 pro forma (cf : notes explicatives).
Au premier semestre 2005, sanofi-aventis ralise un chiffre daffaires de 13 104 millions deuros en
croissance de +11,0%. Leffet des variations montaires est dfavorable de -2,4 points et provient
pour lessentiel de la baisse du dollar amricain. Limpact des variations de primtre (elles
concernent les cessions de produits intervenues chez Aventis au premier semestre 2004) est
dfavorable de -1,1 points. Aprs impact de ces variations, la croissance, donnes publies,
ressort +7,4%.
Au deuxime trimestre 2005, le chiffre d'affaires atteint 6 687 millions d'euros, en croissance de
+10,1% aprs limination des variations des taux de change de -2,8 points et des variations de
primtre de -0,8 point. Aprs impact de ces variations, la croissance, donnes publies, au
second trimestre ressort +6,5%.
Activit Pharmaceutique
Au premier semestre 2005, le chiffre daffaires de lactivit pharmaceutique atteint 12 402 millions
deuros en croissance de +11,0%. Au deuxime trimestre, le chiffre daffaires de lactivit
pharmaceutique atteint 6 345 millions deuros en croissance de +10,0%. Lcart de croissance
entre sanofi-aventis et le march pharmaceutique mondial(4) sest accru au cours du deuxime
trimestre permettant au Groupe de renforcer sa part de march mondiale qui atteint 5,57%(3) fin
mai 2005.
Le chiffre daffaires au premier semestre 2005 des 15 premiers mdicaments slve 7 793
millions deuros, en progression de +17,3% et reprsente 62,8% du chiffre d'affaires de lactivit
pharmaceutique contre 59,5% au premier semestre 2004. Au deuxime trimestre, le chiffre
daffaires des 15 premiers mdicaments slve 4 040 millions deuros, en progression de
+16,2% et reprsente 63,7% du chiffre d'affaires de lactivit pharmaceutique contre 60,3% au
deuxime trimestre 2004.
Au premier semestre 2005, le chiffre daffaires des autres produits de lactivit pharmaceutique
ressort 4 609 millions deuros, en hausse de 1,8%. Aprs un premier trimestre qui avait bnfici
en Europe dune forte pathologie hivernale, le deuxime trimestre ressort 2 305 millions deuros,
en hausse de 0,6%.
Au premier semestre, le chiffre daffaires consolid de lactivit Vaccins humains atteint 702
millions deuros en croissance de 10,4%. Au deuxime trimestre, le chiffre daffaires consolid de
cette activit atteint 342 millions deuros, en croissance de +13,2%.
Menactra, lanc en mars 2005 aux Etats-Unis, ralise un chiffre daffaires fin juin de 70 millions
deuros; la demande complmentaire denregistrement pour la tranche dage de 2 10 ans a t
dpose en mars.
Sanofi Pasteur MSD, la Joint-Venture avec Merck & co en Europe a ralis des ventes au premier
semestre 2005 de 281 millions deuros (+10,6%). Au deuxime trimestre, les ventes de cette joint-
venture ont atteint 153 millions deuros en croissance de +15,7%. Ces ventes ne sont pas
consolides dans le chiffre daffaires de sanofi-aventis.
Aux Etats-Unis, la croissance de lactivit ressort +16,2% au premier semestre et est soutenue
par la bonne performance de Lantus (+49,6%), Eloxatine (+41,7%), Lovenox (+18,7%) et
Copaxone (+23,6%).
Dans les Autres pays , la croissance du chiffre daffaires sur le semestre est de +6,9% 2 625
millions deuros. La bonne performance du Japon (+9,8% 548 millions deuros) est soutenue par
les ventes dAllegra. Au deuxime trimestre, le chiffre daffaires des autres pays enregistre
une acclration de sa croissance (+7,6%) notamment en Amrique Latine.
77
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62
57
52
47
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04
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05
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