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Capital Times | ,
10 2017
4
, 4
11
14
17
20
25
31
33
37
: 44
. 47
48
CASHLESS ECONOMY ( ) 58
63
63
65
66
70
70
75
80
83
90
92
98
112
119
126
128
136
141
: 160
2017 . 10 2017 2
.
?
-
, -16
-16 ...
2016
. -15
-15
.
-15
-14
-14
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
: :
,
,
:
,
,
(
):
,
,
2017 . 10 2017 3
. () -
. ,
,
.
,
, ..
20
.
2014-15 15
.
10
-.
5
,
0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
(
10% Ukraine Belarus Georgia
Moldova Poland Romania
). Russia Slovak Republic Turkey
,
200
. 180
160
. 140
120
. 100
80
,
60
, 40
.
20
0
.
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
, , USD
All Commodity Price Index, 2005 = 100
Crude Oil (petroleum), Price index, 2005 = 100
.
2017 . 10 2017 4
: 200
: 2016
160
140
2005 )
2. ( 120 2015
)
100 2016
3. 2005
( , 80
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4. 60
40
( y = 0,9016x + 22,182
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.
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.
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.
2017 . 10 2017 5
(), 2015-16
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,
,
.
()
,
.
.
.
320 Oil
Wheat
, 160
:
80
40
.
2016 20
: 10
1980 = 100
, 5
.
1963
1965
1967
1970
1972
1975
1977
1979
1982
1984
1987
1989
1992
1994
1996
1999
2001
2004
2006
2008
2011
2013
2016
2017 . 10 2017 6
,
.
.
,
.
.
.
(,
,
, IT-
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.
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2017 . 10 2017 7
,
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.
(
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2017 .
2016
.
.
,
.
2017 . 10 2017 8
2016
35,8%.
.
.
,
.
.
(PPI) 60%
, % /
PPI, % /
: 50% CPI, % /
.
40%
.
, 30%
20%
.
10%
0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-10%
.
.
.
.
2017 . 10 2017 9
.
3200 ././.
.
.
.
.
.
( )
.
,
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2017 . 10 2017 10
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2017 . 10 2017 11
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2017 . 10 2017 12
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.
.
2017 . 10 2017 13
2016
12,4%
(
)
(
).
: 2016
34,6% (64,4% 2015
).
:
2016 19,5%
(+12,3% 2015 )
.
,
,
,
10%.
.
2017 . 10 2017 14
,
.
, 2015 ,
.
:
.
.
.
.
,
,
2016 5,8%
14%.
2017 . 10 2017 15
2017
8% 9,1%,
2018 (6%).
-
.
.
(
.
.
(
) ,
,
(
)
.
2017 . 10 2017 16
:
2016
13.6%,
11.2%,
3 10.9%.
2017-18 ,
,
2016 .
-
,
.
2017 . 10 2017 17
55% US$, % /
(
45%
M3
) ,
. 35%
, 25%
15%
5%
.
-5% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-15%
. -25%
-35%
-45%
500
. .
.
400
.
300
,
.
,
200
.
,
, 100
.
, 0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2017 . 10 2017 18
2016
,
.
.
.
()
:
.
(
).
,
,
.
,
.
15-
8% 2-
16%.
,
.
2017 . 10 2017 19
:
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.
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)
2016 ,
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.
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.
.
.
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, .
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.
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.
2017 . 10 2017 20
2017-18
, 2016 ,
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.
2017 . 10 2017 21
2017 .
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,
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2017 . 10 2017 22
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2017 . 10 2017 23
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2017 . 10 2017 24
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2017 . 10 2017 25
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.
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.
.
:
/
.
2017 . 10 2017 26
-
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.
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.
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.
.
,
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.
2017 . 10 2017 27
.
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.
2017 . 10 2017 28
2017-18
:
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.
2015
2016
$6,8
.
90
.$
1999
80
$80 . -
. ( )
70
,
60 ( )
( , .USD
) $58,9 50
. 40
30
20
10
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-10
2017 . 10 2017 29
,
,
.
.
.
2017 . 10 2017 30
160 : USD 140% %
. :
140 120%
120
100%
100
80%
80
60%
60
40%
40
20 20%
0 0%
2003-4
2014-4
2015-4
2016-4
2003-4
2014-4
2015-4
2016-4
2004-4
2005-4
2006-4
2007-4
2008-4
2009-4
2010-4
2011-4
2012-4
2013-4
2004-4
2005-4
2006-4
2007-4
2008-4
2009-4
2010-4
2011-4
2012-4
2013-4
2014 . 130% -
. (
. USD).
USD %
160 140%
.
140 120%
120
100%
100
80%
80
60%
60
40%
40
20 20%
0 0%
2003-4
2014-4
2015-4
2016-4
2003-4
2014-4
2015-4
2016-4
2004-4
2005-4
2006-4
2007-4
2008-4
2009-4
2010-4
2011-4
2012-4
2013-4
2004-4
2005-4
2006-4
2007-4
2008-4
2009-4
2010-4
2011-4
2012-4
2013-4
2009
. $31 ., $6,2
2018 .
.
( ,
)
2017 . 10 2017 31
, .$ ( , .$
)
120
35
( )
100
30
25 80
20
60
15
40
10
20
5
0 0
2003-4
2014-4
2015-4
2016-4
2004-4
2005-4
2006-4
2007-4
2008-4
2009-4
2010-4
2011-4
2012-4
2013-4
2003-4
2014-4
2015-4
2016-4
2004-4
2005-4
2006-4
2007-4
2008-4
2009-4
2010-4
2011-4
2012-4
2013-4
( USD) 1- 2013
2015 . -
4- 2016 .
( ) -
.
, .$ , %
80 80%
70 70%
( ) ( )
60 60%
50 50%
40 40%
30 30%
20 20%
10 10%
0 0%
2003-4
2014-4
2015-4
2016-4
2003-4
2014-4
2015-4
2016-4
2004-4
2005-4
2006-4
2007-4
2008-4
2009-4
2010-4
2011-4
2012-4
2013-4
2004-4
2005-4
2006-4
2007-4
2008-4
2009-4
2010-4
2011-4
2012-4
2013-4
2017 . 10 2017 32
45 000
, .USD
40 000
, .USD
, 35 000
30 000
. ,
25 000
20 000
.
15 000
$4,3 . 10 000
5 000
- :
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
, .
-5 000
,
3,
3-
.
-
,
.
. ,
(
).
2017-18
,
($21.3 . 2017
$27.1 . 2018-
).
.
,
2016 $20
.
.
22% $4,5
.
2017 . 10 2017 33
.
,
, ,
2013 .
$21 .
. .
,
(
2014-15 )
.
( ):
1
[25%; 100%; 20%2] = [$13 .; $45 .; $8 .] = $45 .
2
:
30% + 15% + 10%2 + 10% = 13,6 + 4,5 + 4,0 + 4,6 = $26,6 .
:
30% + 10% + 5%2 + 5% = 13,6 + 3,0 + 2,0 + 2,3 = $20,9 .
($45,35 .)
($30,1 .)
2 2 (1 102 ..)
($51,5 .)
($45,9 .)
2017 . 10 2017 34
https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2011/021411b.pdf
($15,5 .) ($11,3 .), ($3
.) ,
$4,3 . $20,9 .
2016 ( $2,9 .),
6 (!) , 2022 .
99% ,
.
2016 ,
, . (
),
, .
:
.
, ,
. 1 .
100
.
24,6 /.
,
.
, 10
,
,
89,6 /.
1
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2017 . 10 2017 35
700
, ..
.
600
2016
500
82 ..,
27 ..
400
" "
109
..
300
(
150-200 ..),
200
. 100
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
30 400
( )
. 350
25
,
300
,
20
. 250
15
. UAHUSD 200
, .. (..)
10
150
5 100
2014 2015 2016 2017
2017 . 10 2017 36
Bail-in 32 ..
200 . .
.. ( ). .
,
, 150-
- . 200 ..
30 2016
26 090 30 295
185 025 21 087
32 295 155 388
6 940 40 689
-29 942
21 932
,
20 698
8 502 24 081
271 540 271 540
73 827
(Bail-in) -32 000
.. -16 065
() 116 800
, 48 913
https://privatbank.ua/about/finansovaja-otchetnost/#quarterly
01 2017
31 185 12 664
( ?) 34 969 18 047
19 723 151 040
(?) 64 409 29 906
(?) 39 288
(?) 30 444 8 361
220 018 220 018
115 317
(Bail-in) -32 000
.. -16 065
2017 . 10 2017 37
?
- ( ) 20-50 ..
.
, .
200 ..
.
64 6% (
) 43
10%. .
.
1. .
? .
, .
?
.
2. .
. , ?
- .
.
,
14% .
.
:
.
- 2,5
Loan-to-Deposit ratio
2,3
2,1
1,27
1,9
1,7
.
1,5
,
1,3
1,1
. 0,9
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 . 10 2017 38
.
.
15,1% .
.
.
,
,
,
.
.
(
), 1 2
(
,
).
2
. ,
.
,
.
2017 . 10 2017 39
2008-09 90 000 ,
USD
80 000 mln. ,
70 000
.
60 000
50 000
. 40 000
30 000
. 20 000
10 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
, .
.
, .. , ..
15 000 200
0
10 000
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
-200
5 000
-400
0 -600
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
-5 000 -800
-1 000
-10 000
-1 200
-15 000
-1 400
,
,
-20 000 -1 600
. - $3 .,
. $14 .
-
. .
, .. , ..
450 , ,
35
400 , ,
30
350
25
300
250 20
200 15
150
10
100
5
50
0 0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2017 . 10 2017 40
2016
,
. , , -
.
.
, .. , ..
70
700
60
600
50
500
40
400
30
300
20
200
10
100
0
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
. .
.
.
,
:
,
.
.
2017 . 10 2017 41
.
.
2017 . 10 2017 42
, .
.
. .
, .
.
2017 .
.
, ,
, , ..
2017 . 10 2017 43
WIG-20,
(12 20 ).
24%. .
.
PKO Bank Polski ( 29,43%) .
PKN Orlen (27,52%), , .
PZU (35,19%)
KGHM Polska Miedz (31,79%) ,
PGNiG (70,4%)
PGE (57,39%)
ALIOR (10,28%)
IT- Asseco Poland (31,79%)
Lotos (53,19%) , ,
WIG-20
Share and rights
Number of shares in Value in the basket Share in to share in total
Company ISIN
the index (PLN) index (%) equity turnover
(%)
1 PKOBP PLPKO0000016 857 593 000 23 669 566 800 14.285 7.24 29,43%
2 PKNORLEN PLPKN0000018 309 998 000 23 442 048 760 14.148 15.91 27,52%
3 PEKAO PLPEKAO00016 157 219 000 19 361 519 850 11.685 6.37 0%
4 PZU PLPZU0000011 568 305 000 15 685 218 000 9.466 14.36 35,19%
5 KGHM PLKGHM000017 136 410 000 9 794 238 000 5.911 5.04 31,79%
7 PGNIG PLPGNIG00014 1 746 293 000 8 871 168 440 5.354 2.01 70,40%
8 PGE PLPGER000010 796 776 000 8 286 470 400 5.001 6.60 57,39%
10 CYFRPLSAT PLCFRPT00013 214 367 000 5 198 399 750 3.137 1.31 0%
13 ALIOR PLALIOR00045 91 484 000 4 435 144 320 2.677 0.87 10,28%
14 ASSECOPOL PLSOFTB00016 74 917 000 3 918 159 100 2.365 1.03 31,79%
15 ORANGEPL PLTLKPL00017 647 357 000 3 644 619 910 2.200 1.64 0%
17 LOTOS PLLOTOS00025 86 543 000 2 912 171 950 1.758 1.95 53,19%
18 TAURONPE PLTAURN00011 1 043 590 000 2 765 513 500 1.669 3.29 30,06%
19 ENEA PLENEA000013 214 078 000 2 187 877 160 1.320 1.38 53,33%
20 ENERGA PLENERG00022 200 740 000 1 638 038 400 0.989 1.26 51,52%
2017 . 10 2017 44
, ..
.
20 2013
.
1992
15
5.4 ,
1997
3.9 ,
10 2013 3.5 .
2016
5 6.1 .
, 2021
5 ,
0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Ukraine Poland ($3257 $16192
).
140
2014
, . USD
120
,
100
80
6-
60
.
40 ,
20
, USD ,
0 .
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
: 1995
(
,
..),
.
1995
.
2017 . 10 2017 45
: 2014 , 2014
,
,
,
, ,
.
.
: 2014 2014
,
1994 :
.
,
.
: 1995 () 2014 ()
.
1995 2014 .
: 2014
-
.
2016 26%
9,3%
,
.
2016
2,4% (
).
,
32%.
: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/pol/
2017 . 10 2017 46
. . 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
USD 133.1 90.9 92.3
Capital Times 97.7 98.0 102.0
(-16) 95.3 104.9 114.5 125.3
( -16) 93.5 103.0 112.4 122.9
2 739 3 081 ..
% -7.9% -9.9% 1.8%
Capital Times 2.6% 1.2% 2.0%
(-16) 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
( -16) 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
2017 . 10 2017 47
( )
, 26 9,4 ..
( 18,2 .. 1990 8,8
. 2017 ).
.
,
.., ,
, , .
,
.
50
13,1
13,1
13,1
40
13,6
14,2
14,5
14,5
14,5
14,5
14,5
14,4
14,4
14,4
14,3
14,1
14,1
13,9
13,8
30
13,7
13,7
13,8
13,7
13,6
13,5
12,1
12,3
11,6
11,6
11,6
11,6
11,6
11,6
11,6
11,5
11,5
11,5
11,5
20
10
18,2
18,2
18,2
17,5
16,6
15,9
14,9
14,0
12,7
12,3
11,6
11,4
11,3
11,2
11,1
11,1
11,0
10,9
10,7
10,5
10,4
10,3
10,2
10,1
9,1
8,8
8,8
8,7
8,6
8,5
8,3
8,1
7,8
7,7
7,5
7,3
7,2
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
" "
,
?
-,
.
-, , 1990
(1990-94, 1998-2000, 2008-09 2014-15 ),
.
. , 1990-95 ,
.
-,
. ,
.
-, 7
. .
,
. ,
2017 . 10 2017 48
.
.
.
, 26
8,8 ..,
.
.
?
1983-86
.
, .
750 .
.
1983-86 1987 2015
.
2002-08 : - ,
.
,
.
.
, % 17,7%
17,5%
17,5%
17,1%
20% 20%
16,6%
16,6%
16,5%
16,2%
16,2%
15,5%
15,3%
18% 18%
14,6%
14,5%
14,5%
14,4%
13,9%
13,8%
13,4%
13,3%
13,1%
16% 16%
12,6%
12,1%
11,1%
14%
11,0%
11,2%
14%
9,7%
9,7%
12% 12%
9,4%
9,1%
8,9%
8,8%
8,3%
8,1%
10% 10%
7,1%
7,1%
5,9%
8% 8%
6% 6%
4% 4%
2% 2%
0% 0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
: 15,2% .
,
2017 11%. ,
.
2017 . 10 2017 49
, % (2014 )
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Greece 17,1
Italy 16,5
Portugal 15,6
France 15,2
Austria 14,9
Denmark 14,2
Finland 13,4
Serbia 12,9
Spain 12,8
Belgium 12,5
Germany 11,8
Poland 11,8
Switzerland 11,8
Netherlands 11,5
Sweden 11,5
United Kingdom 11,3
Slovenia 11,2
Ukraine (2017) 11
Croatia 11
Cyprus 10,5
Luxembourg 9,4
Norway 9,3
Czech Republic 9
Hungary 9
Iceland 9
Bulgaria 8,8
Slovakia 8,7
Malta 8,6
Turkey (2013) 8,3
Romania 8,2
Latvia 7,9
Estonia 7,6
Lithuania 7
Ireland 6,4
,
.
.
: .
, , .
, .
2015 , . .
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
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2017 . 10 2017 52
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2017 . 10 2017 53
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2017 . 10 2017 61
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2017 . 10 2017 66
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2017 . 10 2017 73
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.
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.
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,
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1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
.
https://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/index.cfm?id=27762
2017
:
,
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.
2017 . 10 2017 74
- (El Nio) - (La
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.
.
2017 . 10 2017 75
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240
, 235
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. 230
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225
220
, 2,00
215
210
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. 205
200 1,00
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Area Harvested (million hectares) Yield (metric tons /hectare), RHS
800
Wheat
700
.
600
500
400
300
200
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Production (million metric tons) Domestic disappearance (million metric tons)
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Wheat
40%
250
35%
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25%
,
150
20%
100 15%
.
10%
, 50
5%
0 0%
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
60
. Ending Stocks (million metric tons) % Ending Stocks of Domestic Use
2017 . 10 2017 76
,
.
.
190 5,90
Corn
180 5,40
170
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160
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150
. 3,90
140
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130
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120
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2016/2017
Area Harvested (million hectares) Yield (metric tons /hectare), RHS
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900
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600
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400
300
200
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2016/2017
2017 . 10 2017 77
250 50%
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12 .
Ending Stocks (million metric tons) % Ending Stocks to Total Consumption, RHS
,
.
.
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.
250
80
200
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40
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Soybean Area Harvested (million hectares) Soybean Production (million metric tons)
2017 . 10 2017 78
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.
2017 . 10 2017 79
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2017 . 10 2017 81
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2017 . 10 2017 86
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2017 . 10 2017 89
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2017 . 10 2017 92
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2017 . 10 2017 93
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2017 . 10 2017 94
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:
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2017 . 10 2017 97
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.
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0
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.
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1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
, 12-
, 0 1
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.
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. % ,
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1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017 . 10 2017 99
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. ,
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.
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. 2020
,
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.
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.
.
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2012
0 0
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1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
12 ., % /
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200 1
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1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
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200
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Federal Debt Held by the Public 12
12 , USD ( .)
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.
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0
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2012
0
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1 000 1
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, 1
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. 0
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1 100
.
900
700
2015 500
300
$400 .
100
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1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
( $130
.). https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-
$500 center/tic/Pages/ticpress.aspx
.
. 1 000 1
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400 1
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1987
1992
1997
2002
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2012
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https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USD3MTD156N#0
14 2016
2 500 GOVERNMENT
2012 PRIME
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.
500
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.
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Bank of America,
(
)
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), . $
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.
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$100-150 . 15-
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http://fortune.com/2017/01/23/tech-pharma-best-
).
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.
,
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.
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. ,
25 $4-5
EPS 2018 ( 4%).
Energy, Telecom Materials.
IT.
$90 .
.
, (BTA) 20%,
,
.
(border-adjusted corporate tax,
BTA). ( 10-20%),
.
(
-
, BTA ( 5%).
). $140 . .
,
(
2006 2012 3).
, .
3
http://www.liga.net/opinion/312592_kak-povliyaet-na-dollar-nalogovaya-reforma-trampa.htm
2017 . 10 2017 109
BTA Consumer Staples Discretionary (-).
Materials Industrials.
(BTA) 20%:
- 25%;
- ( ) ;
- 10-20%;
- 5%;
- % ;
- .
, Bank of America,
15%. ,
( 25%),
. .
, ,
.
, 2017 .
.
EURUSD
0,9, , .
, ,
() , .
,
, , .
EURUSD 10-
9
2016
6%.
(
).
10-
1,8%
2,58%
.
https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/market-and-economic-insights/business-cycle-
update-December-2016
10-
.
.
,
.
,
.
.
2017 . 10 2017 112
EURUSD 1971-2017
:
. 1,2
,
2016 . 0,9
. EURUSD
0,9,
1,2.
USD EURUSD
2014 ,
EURUSD 1,40.
(-
14 -15):
= .
QE3 -
14.
2015
,
.
,
,
(
).
Homeland Investment Act
(2004) 2005
10%.
,
. Nomura
$240 .
EURUSD, USDCHF,
GBPUSD, USDCAD.
: (EURUSD : (EURUSD
1,2) 1,10-1,15)
,
.
. 10- UST
.
.
, ,
.
, ,
.
27%
( $11 . $41 ), $6
. .
. 12 -12
:
(TIC), 1978.,
..
10 -10
(
$500 . )
8 -8
,
( $350
. ).
6 (), . -6
( 4 -4
).
2 -2
2014
.
0 0
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
.
-,
.
.
( 22%
17%).
( 33% ).
,
.
2016 2015
, 17%
( ),
5%.
, .
,
-
.
( ) ,
.
: , .
.
-
.
.
:
.
,
,
.
2014 . ,
.
.
.
.
, %
,
,
.
, ,
.
, : ()
()
: http://policyuncertainty.com/index.html
,
.
. ,
.
,
.
,
.
. ,
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,
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-
.
, ,
.
:
,
.
.
. : ,
,
.
.
.
, ,
.
: , (),
( ).
,
, private equity ..
2016 :
, .
.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
38,9% 22,5% 76,0% 29,3% 29,3% 20,8% 25,9% 30,1% 2,2% 11,6% Emerging Markets
31,6% 6,7% 39,1% 28,3% 13,2% 18,6% 24,7% 25,3% 1,6% 11,2% High Yield Corporate Bonds
30,5% 4,9% 31,9% 18,9% 9,6% 17,5% 11,7% 10,8% 0,7% 10,1% Commodities
13,8% 1,6% 29,6% 12,4% 8,6% 14,4% 4,5% 9,7% 0,6% 8,3% REIT
11,6% 0,4% 24,0% 12,0% 8,5% 12,6% 2,3% 9,7% 0,5% 8,0% Gold
9,2% -2,4% 21,1% 9,0% 7,1% 11,6% 1,4% 4,6% 0,0% 6,8% S&P 500
7,9% -2,9% 15,3% 8,9% 2,5% 9,5% 0,0% 3,8% 0,0% 6,1% Global Bonds (USD Hedged)
5,0% -13,6% 11,2% 8,5% 2,3% 6,8% -0,1% 0,9% -1,4% 5,2% Investment Inflation
4,7% -21,3% 10,8% 7,2% 0,3% 6,6% -0,8% 0,7% -1,5% 4,5% TIPS
3,5% -37,1% 3,9% 6,2% 0,0% 3,5% -1,8% 0,4% -1,8% 1,4% Consumer Inflation PCE
3,4% -44,7% 2,1% 4,9% 0,0% 1,7% -5,2% 0,0% -2,0% 1,2% Long Term Treasury
2,0% -45,8% 1,4% 2,6% -3,3% 0,7% -8,9% -2,2% -10,7% 1,1% Short Term Treasury
0,5% -48,6% 0,1% 1,4% -11,6% 0,1% -13,0% -6,7% -15,5% 0,2% Cash
-16,5% -52,8% -12,1% 0,1% -18,8% -0,6% -28,3% -33,0% -34,1% -0,8% European Stocks
: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/historical-asset-class-returns, Capital Times
: https://www.fidelity.com/bin-
public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/Q1%202017%20Market%20Update_Fidelity.pdf
2017 . 10 2017 126
2016 .
.
16,3%.
RTS 52%.
:
- 45%;
- ,
.
.
17,8%.
BOVESPA 38%.
2011-15
.
: -
. , -
.
.
.
.
: https://novelinvestor.com/emerging-markets-performance/
.
1934
1002
6 . 9 . 1
(
. % . % . %
% )
520 52% 539 54% 527 53%
10- 308 31% 309 31% 307 31%
3- 174 17% 151 15% 162 16%
-
,
. ,
.
,
, ( 1 12
),
, 0.5%:
45% ;
30% ;
25% .
,
.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 4
1 000
100
Corporate Profits with Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment
(CCAdj), Billions of Dollars, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
SP500
10
1947
1949
1951
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
4
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPROFIT
2017 . 10 2017 128
, . ,
, ,
. ,
, , . ,
, ,
.
EPS: earnings per share
( ).
EPS S&P 500 ,
, . EPS -
.
120
12
Oct-88
Oct-99
Oct-10
May-93
May-04
May-15
Feb-85
Feb-96
Feb-07
Dec-86
Dec-97
Dec-08
Jan-86
Nov-87
Apr-94
Jan-97
Apr-05
Jan-08
Apr-16
Sep-89
Jun-92
Mar-95
Nov-98
Sep-00
Jun-03
Mar-06
Nov-09
Sep-11
Jun-14
Mar-17
Aug-90
Jul-91
Aug-01
Jul-02
Aug-12
Jul-13
, 2016
EPS S&P 500 2017 $131,
20% --.
,
2017 .
, (
). P/E
(17 23). , PE S&P 500
. .
P/E
2,00
50,00 SP500 / Corporate Profit, RHS
1,50
1,00
0,50
5,00 0,00
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
EPS ()
PE, S&P 500. , EPS
130, PE 17, S&P 500 2210
, . PE 20, S&P 500
2600.
EPS PE
, 2009 ,
,
. :
.
.
,
. ,
.
.
1500
15 150
Jul-91
Jul-04
Apr-88
Apr-01
Apr-14
May-89
Nov-95
May-02
Nov-08
May-15
Mar-87
Aug-92
Mar-00
Aug-05
Mar-13
Oct-94
Oct-07
Jun-90
Jun-03
Jun-16
Jan-85
Feb-86
Sep-93
Dec-96
Jan-98
Feb-99
Sep-06
Dec-09
Jan-11
Feb-12
, P/E . . ,
,
,
P/E .
, .
: https://www.fidelity.com/bin-
public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/Q1%202017%20Market%20Update_Fidelity.pdf
: https://www.fidelity.com/bin-
public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/Q1%202017%20Market%20Update_Fidelity.pdf
.
, . (
) ,
.
, .
10-
, ,
,
.
.
: , . ,
Fidelity 3,6%
10- 3,6%
.
10-
: https://www.fidelity.com/bin-
public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/Q1%202017%20Market%20Update_Fidelity.pdf
2017 . 10 2017 137
, ,
.
1,1% 0,5%,
1,6%.
: https://www.fidelity.com/bin-
public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/Q1%202017%20Market%20Update_Fidelity.pdf
,
,
, ( )
0,766% . , . Fidelity
0,5% .
, 2012 .
. ,
( 2011 )
. ,
,
.
OECD 2017-18
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, % --
: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=6Tdy#0
: .
10- .
, .
, . :
- .
. 2%,
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. .
, ,
TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Secutities),
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, , .
: https://www.fidelity.com/bin-
public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/Q1%202017%20Market%20Update_Fidelity.pdf
.
.
, . ,
:
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, : ,
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,
, ,
.
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: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=cqlj
2017 . 10 2017 140
,
--, 10-
, (
).
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: .
.
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: 100% : 50% : -
: - : 50% : 100%
,
, ,
.
:
,
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.
2013
.
.
.
,
.
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ETF.
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SPY,
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.
.
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. ,
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. 20-
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. ,
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,
. -.
, ,
.
S&P 500 ,
.
( 30%
), 1881 2016 19
S&P 500 0,3% , 16,6%
6,8% .
() () S&P
500 1 20 (1871-2016 ),
( 30% )
150%
100%
50%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-50%
-100%
, 500
, . US
Treasuries , S&P 500.
Standard & Poor's
Global Ratings AA+/A-1+ ,
/A-1+. ( 100%
) 10-15 1-1,6%5.
10 100% SPY 1%
0%. ( ,
..) 100%
SPY. ?
S&P 500 ,
.
SPY , 10- .
, SPY -
17- ,
( 2% ), ,
. ,
, S&P 500,
.
5
https://www.nact.org/resources/2014_SP_Global_Corporate_Default_Study.pdf (.57-58)
2017 . 10 2017 145
?
S&P 500 ( )
, ( Operating
EPS (ests are bottom up))
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
, (85%) 17 .
17
S&P 500.
S&P 500
.
S&P 500 (
30%) SPTR
1/PE, %
25% 20%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
May-20
May-57
May-94
Jul-26
Jul-63
Jul-00
Jun-23
Jun-60
Jun-97
Jan-08
Jan-45
Jan-82
Feb-11
Oct-35
Feb-48
Oct-72
Feb-85
Oct-09
Nov-01
Mar-14
Nov-38
Mar-51
Nov-75
Mar-88
Nov-12
Dec-04
Apr-17
Dec-41
Apr-54
Dec-78
Apr-91
Dec-15
Aug-29
Aug-66
Aug-03
Sep-32
Sep-69
Sep-06
1880/04
1883/05
1886/06
1889/07
1892/08
1895/09
1898/10
1871/01
1874/02
1877/03
-5%
S&P 500 (17 ),
SPTR (10 )
-10% 1/PE, RHS 2%
S&P 500 ,
.
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
S&P 500 ( )
17 , % :
S&P 500 = 0,0758 * ln(1/PE) + 0,294
S&P 500
S&P 500 (17 ),
19%
14%
9%
4%
1880/01
1883/01
1886/01
1889/01
1892/01
1895/01
1898/01
Jan-01
Jan-04
Jan-07
Jan-10
Jan-13
Jan-16
Jan-19
Jan-22
Jan-25
Jan-28
Jan-31
Jan-34
Jan-37
Jan-40
Jan-43
Jan-46
Jan-49
Jan-52
Jan-55
Jan-58
Jan-61
Jan-64
Jan-67
Jan-70
Jan-73
Jan-76
Jan-79
Jan-82
Jan-85
Jan-88
Jan-91
Jan-94
Jan-97
Jan-00
Jan-03
Jan-06
Jan-09
Jan-12
Jan-15
1871/01
1874/01
1877/01
-1%
1929-33
S&P 500,
. 1913 ,
1933
S&P 500
(0,85).
1881 2016 S&P 500
17- 6,7% 99,9%
0% 18% . 130 ,
S&P 500 17- (-0,3% ).
: 1929 , .
18,2%
16,3%
14,4%
12,4%
10,5%
8,6%
6,7%
5,5%
4,3%
3,2%
2,0%
0,8%
-0,3%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
SPY 17 , 6,4%
-0,07% +13%
. :
. , 130 , S&P 500
1929 , 1929-33 .
,
, .
S&P 500.
17
2,8% .
.
.
. 2008-09
,
. .
,
1% ,
S&P 500.
19,0%
18,0%
17,0%
16,0%
15,0%
14,0%
13,0%
13,0%
12,0%
11,0%
10,0%
9,0%
8,0%
7,0%
6,0% SPY: 6,4%
5,0%
4,0%
3,0% IEF: 2,8%
2,0%
1,0% UST
0,0%
S&P 500 -0,07%
-1,0%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
S&P 500 ( )
, ,
,
S&P 500 (
).
(85%) S&P 500
P/E (1/PE = Operating EPS (ests are bottom up)
S&P 500) 17 .
S&P 500 17
.
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
S&P 500
17 130 (
1929-33 1929 ).
S&P 500,
: 1901-1906 ., - 1915 , 1929-30 ., 1961-68 .
,
- .
: (1931 ),
( ).
, (
).
S&P 500 (
30%)
1/PE, %
20% 20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1871/01
1874/09
1878/05
May-00
May-11
May-22
May-33
May-44
May-55
May-66
May-77
May-88
May-99
May-10
1882/01
1885/09
1889/05
1893/01
1896/09
Jan-04
Jan-15
Jan-26
Jan-37
Jan-48
Jan-59
Jan-70
Jan-81
Jan-92
Jan-03
Jan-14
Sep-07
Sep-18
Sep-29
Sep-40
Sep-51
Sep-62
Sep-73
Sep-84
Sep-95
Sep-06
Sep-17
-5%
S&P 500 (
30%)
17
350% 17 20%
250%
10%
200%
5%
150%
0%
100%
-5%
50%
0% -10%
1871/01
1874/03
1877/05
May-15
May-34
May-53
May-72
May-91
Jul-18
Jul-37
Jul-56
Jul-75
Jul-94
1880/07
1883/09
1886/11
1890/01
1893/03
1896/05
1899/07
Nov-05
Jan-09
Mar-12
Nov-24
Jan-28
Mar-31
Nov-43
Jan-47
Mar-50
Nov-62
Jan-66
Mar-69
Nov-81
Jan-85
Mar-88
Sep-02
Sep-21
Sep-40
Sep-59
Sep-78
Sep-97
S&P 500
,
.
, : 0,57
0,70 .
.
10%
5%
0%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
-5%
S&P 500 ( )
17 , % :
S&P 500 = 0,0795 * ln(1/PE) + 0,2629
S&P 500
S&P 500 (17 ),
15%
10%
5%
0%
1871/01
1874/08
1878/03
Oct-24
Oct-67
Oct-10
May-28
May-71
May-14
Jun-10
Jun-53
Jun-96
Jul-35
Jul-78
1885/05
1888/12
1892/07
1896/02
1899/09
Nov-06
Jan-14
Mar-21
Nov-49
Jan-57
Mar-64
Nov-92
Jan-00
Mar-07
Apr-03
Aug-17
Apr-46
Aug-60
Apr-89
Aug-03
1881/1
Dec-31
Dec-74
Feb-39
Sep-42
Feb-82
Sep-85
-5%
13,0%
11,5%
9,9%
8,3%
6,7%
5,2%
3,9%
2,7%
1,4%
0,1%
-1,1%
-2,4%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
SPY 17 , 2,2%
-4,6% +9%
. (4%),
(2%).
: (1)
(2) . ,
,
.
S&P 500. 17
0,8% 2%.
, 2%
.
PE 70% ,
SPY 17 6,4% ,
30% .
, 20- 98,4%
(1,6% - ) 2,8% . , SPY
.
S&P 500:
S&P 500 US Treasuries
17 20
, % 6,4% 2,8%
:
/ 1,5% 2,8%
4,9% -
99% , % 0-13% 2,8%
, %
2,2% 0,8%
(4,6)-9% 0,8%
0-0,1% 1,6%
( 100% )
( 1929-33 .)
, S&P 500
,
,
.
P/E
, .
: ?
,
.
.
( 30%)
, .
, - .
.
: 17- -.
(6,4% ), , (2,8%)
(
SPY ).
.
, 100% .
0% 100%
.
S&P 500 :
1
10 000,00
1 000,00
100,00
10,00
1,00
0,10
Bear market
Crisis
0,01 S&P 500 0
1883/01
1887/01
1891/01
1895/01
1899/01
Jan-03
Jan-07
Jan-11
Jan-15
Jan-19
Jan-23
Jan-27
Jan-31
Jan-35
Jan-39
Jan-43
Jan-47
Jan-51
Jan-55
Jan-59
Jan-63
Jan-67
Jan-71
Jan-75
Jan-79
Jan-83
Jan-87
Jan-91
Jan-95
Jan-99
Jan-03
Jan-07
Jan-11
Jan-15
Jan-19
Jan-23
Jan-27
Jan-31
1871/01
1875/01
1879/01
, (1509-1601),
(1602-1692), (1693-1788) (1789-2016),
.
: SPY
? SPY
.
, S&P 500 30%
.
,
SPY 30%,
30%.
SPY , .
SPY , .
S&P 500 3250 ,
SPY ( 30%- ).
S&P 500 3250 ,
SPY , .
: S&P 500
3250 ?
, ,
. 17- -.
, ,
. ,
, .
: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECPROUSM156N
-, 10-
3- . ,
(3- )
(10- ), .
- ,
.
.
. . -
( ,
).
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 0
1914
1918
1922
1926
1930
1934
1938
1942
1946
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
2030
: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html
Moodys: ,
6
70% 1
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 0
2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
: https://www.economy.com/dismal/indicators/releases/usa_recession/2239DA1A-8FFE-4471-
B5A5-38D463848AB8/United-States-Risk-of-Recession
, ,
- SPY.
50,000 1
0,000 1
-50,000 0
-100,000 0
WLEI
-150,000 0
: http://recessionalert.com/
- : , .
: http://imarketsignals.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/BCI-Fig-3-2-2-2017.png
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5 0
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/business-conditions-index
SPY 17 .
.
6,4% .
( -0,07% ) 6 1000.
17
: SPY (, $100
).
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, SPY 30% .
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2017 . 10 2017 161
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