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Human emissions are the largest driver no alt causes their evidence
doesnt assume long-term trends.
Climate Central 14 (Climate Central is a nonprofit news organization that analyzes and
reports on climate science. Composed of scientists and science journalists, the organization
conducts scientific research on climate change and energy issues, and produces multimedia
content; Rising Global Temperatures and CO2; May 6th, 2014;
http://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/co2-and-rising-global-temperatures; DT)
The average global temperature fluctuates every year. However, when you look at a snapshot of
the global temperature trend, it's on the rise - particularly since 1970. The main cause? Carbon
dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. There are plenty of factors
that influence temperatures in different regions across the globe . El Nio is one of the biggest
drivers of year-to-year variability, increasing the likelihood of warm weather in the Pacific
Northwest and cooler weather in the Southeast as well as a host of other global impacts . Longer-
term fluctuations such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and aerosols from natural and human sources can further affect regional
climate. Solar cycles also have global temperature implications, although on a much smaller scale.
These shifts taken individually and together account for the year-to-year variability seen in
the global average temperatures. They cant fully explain why the globe has warmed
about 1.6F since 1880, though. Overlaying the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere shows a clear
correlation with that rise in temperatures. Of course correlation doesnt always equal causation. However, reams of peer-
reviewed research, basic physics, the ability to track the specific chemical fingerprint of fossil
fuel-driven carbon, and the fact that no models can replicate this century's warming without
pumping up carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere give scientists
confidence that human carbon emissions are driving the globes temperature higher. Other
indicators such as ocean acidification, increasing deep ocean heat, melting ice and permafrost,
shrinking snow pack, and sea level rise further make the case that the additional carbon dioxide
is affecting the global climate system. There are periods when other factors might temporarily slow that rise such as
the much-discussed global warming pause of the last decade, but the overall connection is clear. If greenhouse gas
emissions continue to rise, the globes average temperature is projected to follow sui t. The worst-
case emissions scenario, the track that we are currently on, estimates a rise in temperature of
4.7 to 8.6F by 2100. International negotiators are at a meeting in Warsaw that continues through November 22 in an effort
to lay the groundwork for a global climate treaty that aims to limit the temperature from rising more than 3.6F above pre-industrial
levels.
International policies fall short of that target we still have time to meet
it but immediacy is key expert analysis agrees.
Radford 7/2 (Tim Radford, a founding editor of Climate News Network, worked for The
Guardian for 32 years, for most of that time as science editor. He has been covering climate
change since 1988; "Pledges Made at Paris Climate Talks Will Not Contain Global Warming"; 7-12-
2016; Truthdig;
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/pledges_made_at_the_paris_climate_talks_will_not_contain_
20160702; DT)
LONDONNationalpromises made late last year to contain carbon dioxide emissions will not be nearly
enough to meet the global warming target agreed last December by 195 nations, according to a new
assessment. The signatories to the historic agreement at the UN conference on climate change in Paris
pledged to limit global warming to below 2C and to aim for no more than 1.5C rise above pre-
industrial levels. The planet has already warmed by 1C in the last century. But, climate scientists say, the intended
nationally determined contributions (INDCs) submitted before the meeting imply global warming of
between 2.6C and 3.1C. So more needs to be done, they report in Nature journal. The Paris Agreement was a
historical achievement for the worlds response to climate change, aiming at limiting warming to below 1.5C and 2C, says
Joeri Rogelj, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) research scholar who led the study. Finite amount It puts
But our analysis shows that these
in place a flexible framework for a long-term transformation towards a low-carbon society.
measures need to be strengthened in order to have a good chance of keeping warming to well
below 2C, let alone 1.5C. The researchers argue in their study that to limit warming to any level implies that the total
amount of CO2 that can ever be emitted into the atmosphere is finite. About two-thirds of the available
budget for keeping warming to below 2C have already been emitted, they write. Global emissions urgently need to
start to decline. That it can be done, and that the Paris target is realistic and achievable, is confirmed by a second group of
researchers in Nature Climate Change journal. In order to ensure a chance of meeting these targets, we
need further significant action from countries before 2030. They reason that the difference
between 1.5C and 2C is substantial, in terms of sea level rise, the loss of the glaciers and
damage to the rainforests. However, the process of containing global average temperature rise
demands a controlled implosion of the fossil fuel industry, and a technological explosion of
renewable energy systems. The Paris agreement is a historic achievement and a genuine triumph of reason, says Hans
Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who led the study. Now the pressure is on to
implement that consensus in time, in order to avoid the looming humanitarian tragedy for good. And the latest look at the
researchers calculateon the basis of all
challenges, led by the IIASA team, is another instance of that pressure. The
the INDCs submitted by the time of the Paris meeting, from up to 187 of the parties to the
conference, and responsible for up to 96% of all greenhouse gas emissionsthat the entire
global budget for limiting global warming to below 2C might have already been emitted by
2030. To put it briefly, the promises made so far are not enough . Since the Paris Agreement requires the signatories
to submit fresh and ever more ambitious INDC pledges every five years, political opportunity exists, along with societal
challenge. Range of uncertainties The latest Nature study considers a number of scenarios and a range of uncertainties, and then
goes on to frame the probabilities of success. And it concludes that substantial
enhancement or over-delivery of the
promises made so far is necessary to maintain a reasonable chance of keeping warming to well
below the 2C target. To go the rest of the way, we would need to assume much more stringent
action after 2030, which leads to emissions reductions of 3%-4% per year globally , says the reports
co-author, Niklas Hhne, founding partner of the Germany-based NewClimate Institute for Climate Policy and Global Sustainability.
in
But, in practice, switching to such stringent reductions right after 2030 would be challenging, and require time. That means that
order to ensure a chance of meeting these targets, we need further significant action from
countries before 2030.