Etd 0614114 154921

International Masters Program in Electric Power Engineering
National Sun Yat-Sen University
Master Thesis
Photovoltaic Penetration Analysis for Distribution Systems
Considering Solar Irradiance Uncertainty
Maphila Wandile Kunene
Dr. Jen-Hao Teng
103 7
July 2014
i
ii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I would like to express gratitude to my advisor Professor Dr. Jen-Hao Teng for
guiding me throughout my research. The knowledge and wisdom, I have acquired
from him is incredible. This learning process has been such a great journey in my life
and will not be forgotten. My lab mates in the Smart Grid and Green Energy lab, the
Professors, staff and students of NYSU Electrical Engineering Department, you have
made every day special through your vigor, work ethics and assistance.
I would also like to show appreciation to both the International Cooperation and
Development Fund (ICDF) and National Sun Yat-Sen University, more especially the
Department of Electric Power Engineering for the great treatment and assistance
during my two year stay in Taiwan.
Lastly, I would like to thank my family, more especially my mother Rosemary

Lencane Vilakati, her encouragement and lifework have been the motivation that kept
me pushing that extra mile.
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(Monte Carlo)
(Probabilistic Power Flow) MATLAB OpenDSS
:
MATLABOpenDSS
iv
ABSTRACT
As the popularity of green energy gains momentum, the increase in solar

photovoltaic (PV) system power injected into distributed networks is bound to result
in voltage standard violation. A study on photovoltaic penetration considering solar
irradiance uncertainty is conducted in this thesis to ensure that power quality is within
regulatory bounds. The PV unit size with considerable capacity compared with the
network size, which consequently affects the penetration level of the solar
photovoltaic distributed generation (PVDG), is examined using Monte Carlo to solve
a probabilistic power flow (PPF). The PPF accounts for the random nature of solar
irradiance and load shape. Therefore, to capture how this randomness affects voltage
variation, the PPF is performed at very small time intervals (3.6 seconds) in a
quasi-steady state environment. The different penetration levels are statistically
compared in order to identify the ideal PV unit size for a test distribution network.
This thesis describes the models used for the study, discusses the impacts of PVDG of
different penetration level and presents the results of simulations conducted using
both MATLAB and OpenDSS software platforms.
Keywords: Solar Photovoltaic, Solar Irradiance, Monte Carlo, Probabilistic Power

Flow, Penetration Level, MATLAB, OpenDSS.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......iii
......vi
ABSTRACT..............v
TABLE OF CONTENTS..vi
LIST OF FIGURES. viii
LIST OF TABLES......x
ACROYNMS AND ABBREVIATIONS......xi
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION1
1.1 Study Objective.......3
1.2 Thesis Outline..........4
CHAPTER 2 SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC DISTRIBUTED GENERATION...5
2.1 Solar Photovoltaic Energy....5
2.2 The Photovoltaic Panel.5
2.3 Integrating Solar Photovoltaic to Grid....7
2.4 The Photovoltaic Inverter.......10
2.4.1 The Maximum Power Point...............10
2.4.2 The Maximum Power Point Tracker....12
2.5 Direct Solar Radiation....13
2.6 Ambient Temperature.14
CHAPTER 3 MODELING SOFTWARE & PROBABILISTIC POWER FLOW15
3.1 Introduction to OpenDSS.......15
3.2 Modeling of Photovoltaic Generator..16
3.3 Solar Panel Model..........17
3.4 MATLAB.18
3.5 Linking OpenDSS with MATLAB.19
3.6 Probabilistic Power Flow...20
3.7 Random PV Generation Model..22
3.8 Probabilistic Load Model...23
3.9 Statistical Analysis.................25
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CHAPTER 4 TEST RESULTS AND DISCUSSION......26
4.1 The Test Distribution System.........26
4.2 Simulation with PVDG Interconnection.28
4.3 Case one: 5% Penetration Level.............32
4.4 Case two: 10% Penetration Level38
4.5 Case three: 15% Penetration Level..44
4.6 Case Four: 20% Penetration Level50
CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION & FUTURE RESEARCH...56
5.1 Conclusion..56
5.2 Future Research..57
REFERENCES.58
APPENDIX A - Test Distribution System Parameters.........61
APPENDIX B - Test Feeder circuit OpenDSS code...................64
APPENDIX C - Probabilistic Power Flow using Monte Carlo MATLAB code...68
APPENDIX D - Probabilistic Load Model - MATLAB code.........69
APPENDIX E - Solar PVDG output at hour 10 to 11- MATLAB code.....70
APPENDIX F - Statistical Analysis - MATLAB code........71
APPENDIX G - Number of Solar Panels....73
APPENDIX H - Penetration Level Calculation74
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.1: Solar PV Global Capacity from the year 1995 to 2012.......1
Figure 2.1: Equivalent circuit of PV Cell.......5
Figure 2.2: Solar Cell, Module and Array......7
Figure 2.3: I-V Characteristics of Solar module at different irradiations..10
Figure 2.4: P-V Characteristics of Solar module at different irradiations....11
Figure 2.5: Voltage control of active PV power generation.....12
Figure 2.6: A graph of direct radiation in kW/m for 24 hours.....13
Figure 2.7: A graph of Temperature Measurements at Penghu County...14
Figure 3.1: OpenDSS structure....15
Figure 3.2: OpenDSS Architecture......16
Figure 3.3: Block diagram of a PV System element Model in OpenDSS...16
Figure 3.4: MATLAB User Interface.......18
Figure 3.5: DSSStartup function..19
Figure 3.6: Block Diagram of Probabilistic Load Flow engine...20
Figure 3.7: Procedure flow chart for Probabilistic Load Flow.....21
Figure 3.8: Graph of a typical daily load curve....24
Figure 4.1: Test distribution feeder with steady state power flow...27
Figure 4.2 Stochastic samples of Solar Irradiation...28
Figure 4.3: Test distribution feeder with PVDG connection for the different cases31
Figure 4.4: Case 1 - Voltage Variation Ratio on Bus 2 at hour 7 to 8......32
Figure 4.5: Case 1 - Voltage Variation Ratio on Bus 2 at hour 12 to 13..33
Figure 4.6: Case 1 - Voltage Variation Ratio on Bus 2 at hour 16 to 17..... 33
Figure 4.8: Case 1 - Voltage Variation Ratio on Bus 13 at hour 12 to 13.34
Figure 4.10: Case 1 - Voltage Variation Ratio on Bus 20 at hour 7 to 835
Figure 4.13: Case 2 - Voltage Variation Ratio on Bus 2 at hour 7 to 8....38
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Figure 4.17: Case 2 - Voltage Variation Ratio on Bus 13 at hour 12 to 13.......40
Figure 4.18: Case 2 - Voltage Variation Ratio on Bus 13 at hour 16 to 17........41
Figure 4.21: Case 2 - Voltage Variation Ratio on Bus 20 at hour 16 to 17...42
Figure 4.22: Case 3 - Voltage Variation Ratio on Bus 2 at hour 7 to 8.......44
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 3-2: Parameters of DeSolar D6p photovoltaic module...........17

Table 4-1: Stochastic sample of Solar Irradiation mean and standard deviation.29
Table 4-2: Table of mean and standard deviation (SD) for case 1...37
Table 4-3: Table of mean and standard deviation (SD) for case 2...........43
Table 4-4: Table of mean and standard deviation (SD) for case 3...........49
Table 4-5: Table of mean and standard deviation (SD) for case 4...54
Table 4-6: Simulation time in seconds for the different cases..55
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ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
AC Alternating Current
AM Air Mass
COM Component Object Model
DC Direct Current
DG Distributed Generation
DLL Dynamic Link Library
EP Expected output Power
EPRI Electric Power Research Institute
EPS Electric Power System
IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineering
MATLAB Matrix Laboratory
MPP Maximum Power Point
MPPT Maximum Power Point Tracking
OPENDSS Open Distribution System Simulator
PCC Point of Common Coupling
Pdf Probability Density Function
PPF Probabilistic Power Flow
p.u. Per Unit
PV Photovoltaic
PVDG Photovoltaic Distributed Generation
SD Standard Deviation
STATCOM Static Synchronous Compensator
Std Standard
THD Total Harmonic Distortion
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CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1. Background
Electric power generation has in recent years started shifting from centralized
generation topology to distributed generation (DG). The change in structure of the
electric grid has affected the power supply security, reliability, quality and economic
arrangement. There is a necessity, therefore, to study the effects of DG in a
distribution network and more specifically its impact with respect to an increase in
penetration levels.
The threat of global warming triggered by the increase of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere has forced the world to shift from fossil fuel reliance to renewable energy
sources. Currently, the renewable energy generation gaining momentum in recent
years, deals with the conversion of sunlight energy to electricity through the use of
solar photovoltaic (PV). Solar photovoltaic distributed generation (PVDG) is amongst
the fastest growing energy sources in the world, with annual growth rates of 25-35%
over the last 10 years [1]. The growth rate is exponential as shown in Figure 1.1
100
Solar PV Installation capacity
90
80
70
60
(GW)
50
40
30
20
10
0
1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Figure 1.1: Solar PV Global Capacity from the year 1995 to 2012 [2]
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The increase of PV capacity in Taiwan has been promoted by the Ministry of
Economic Affairs by offering financial support of 50% installation cost to potential
PV power producers in the private sector under the banner of Subsidiary Program for
Photovoltaic System Installation [3]. This program helps the private sector in the
reduction of high costs in installing PV modules for generation and thus has increased
the PVDG capacity in distribution feeder.
Swaziland, a country in Southern Africa, has plenty of sunlight only produces

24% of demand power, the remaining 76% is imported from neighboring countries,
Mozambique and South Africa [4]. The country has plenty of sunshine throughout the
year and is well suited for the introduction of PVDG. As a developing country, the
introduction of PVDG to distribution network analysis must be conducted with
minimal investment into supporting equipment such as energy storage system.
The more growth of high penetration PV in the distribution system, the more
noticeable are the voltage fluctuations, reverse power flows, power factor
modification, and other operability issues [5]. Therefore, the thesis proposes a
methodology in the analysis of solar photovoltaic distributed generation in a lightly
loaded grid.
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1.1 Study Objective
The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the behavior of a distribution

system when there is an increase in PVDG penetration level. In order to enable safe
and reliable operation of a power system with electricity supply quality falling within
established standards, there needs to be a detailed study and analysis of PV interaction
with the grid. As prior power consumers will in turn be producers in the near future, a
thorough investigation of the PV interaction must be conducted with emphasis on the
impacts of renewable energy uncertainty.
Digital simulation are used in the study of PV integration, for in comparison to

actual measurements on operating installations, are considered faster, low cost and
appropriate for analysis on different design parameters [6]. To enable reduced
computational load and simplicity in investigation, a PV module name DeSolar D6p
is used in this thesis. The software platforms utilized to simulate the different cases of
PV penetration level are OpenDSS and MATLAB.
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1.2 Thesis Outline
The thesis is comprised of five chapters. Chapter 1 is an introduction which

contains background material, study objective and the inspiration behind the project.
The introduction briefly describes how the world and certain countries have
established photovoltaic distributed generation.
Chapter 2 presents the theory behind photovoltaic solar energy together with a
brief introduction on maximum power point tracking, including the fundamental
equations with respect to solar photovoltaic distributed generation.
Chapter 3 reviews the design of all system elements. This chapter deals with the
modeling of different elements of the project from the PVDG, the solar panel as well
as the smart inverter. There is a synopsis of the simulation tools used in the project
which includes MATLAB and OpenDSS. This chapter also presents probabilistic
power flow which is based on Monte Carlo simulation method. The chapter describes
a snap shot simulation in OpenDSS of the test distribution system with no PVDG
interconnection.
Chapter 4 is the simulation results and discussion. This chapter details the
response of the test distribution system with different penetration levels. The resulting
histograms plots and tables from the simulations are shown together with discussion.
Chapter 5 is the conclusion of the project with some suggestions for future research.
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CHAPTER 2
SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC DISTRIBUTED GENERATION
2.1 Solar Photovoltaic Energy
The photovoltaic is derived from the Greek word photo meaning light and
voltaic which refers to volt [7]. Therefore, photovoltaic encompasses technology
used in the direct conversion of solar radiation from the sun into electrical energy
using solar photovoltaic (PV) cell. The PV cell employs the photoelectric effect to
produce a direct current (DC) electrical power when exposed to light [8]. This DC
power is then converter to alternating power through the employment of power
electronic device known as the inverter.
2.2 The Photovoltaic Panel
The principle of photoelectric effect has been observed to take place when an
electron is ejected from a conduction band of material (metallic, non-metallic, solid,
liquid or gas) because of light absorption [9]. Therefore, when light shines on a PV
cell, the proportional solar energy absorbed in the semiconductor (silicon commonly
used) if greater than band gap energy, results in electron from the valance band to
jump to the conduction band. The free electrons which move in a particular direction
(since PV cell acts as diode) in the conduction band can be exploited for external use
by connecting a plate at the bottom and top of PV cell [7].
Figure 2.1: Equivalent circuit of PV cell [4]
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For analysis simplicity of the effect of PV in a distribution network, the
equivalent circuit of a PV cell is presented in Figure 2.1. When the cell is exposed to
light, photocurrent is generated that is proportional to irradiance G (refer to
equation (2.2)) and results in current flow [8].
+ +
= [ ( ) 1] (2.1)

where is the internal equivalent current source,

= is the thermal voltage of array with cells connected in series,

a is the permittivity of the diode.
The generated current PV cell is varied with solar irradiation, G, and the
panel surface temperature

= ( + ) (2.2)

where is short circuit current of PV cell with reference temp. Tn =250 C,

2
= 1000 is the reference irradiation,
T is temperature deviation from the reference value,
is the temperature coefficient (mA/C).
, the reverse saturation current is represented by

3 1 1
= ( ) ( ) (2.3)

where is the band gap energy of the semiconductor and

is the reference reverse saturation current
Since there is low voltage generated by a single solar cell, to increase voltage
these cell are connected together into what is termed the solar module. Modules are
also connected together to form an array which can be on any size [11].
6
Figure 2.2: Solar Cell, Module and Array [11]
As individual solar cells generate very low voltage, a number of such cells are
connected in series and are combined into a solar module. Higher output can be
obtained by wiring a number of modules together to create solar generators, which
can be of any size.
2.3 Integrating Solar Photovoltaic to Grid
Solar arrays can be installed in a distribution system resulting in a decentralized

grid in order to minimize transmission and distribution loss. The close proximity of
supply to load has the added advantage of minimizing the peak demand thus leveling
the load profile [12]. Depending on the penetration level, the voltage profile is
improved since the peak load is reduced. There is security enhancement in increasing
the number of generators in a grid.
There are negative impacts of integrating solar PV to grid. This is a result of an

increase in the penetration level of PV as more and more producers are connecting PV
with grid. Some of these disadvantages of connecting high capacity PV are voltage
rise, reverse power flow which reduces system efficiency, increase in total harmonic
distortion (THD) which degrades system reliability, decrease in power factor as well
as voltage and current unbalance when single phase PV are interconnected [12].
7
There are, however, specifications that have to be followed when integrating
solar PV to distribution network in order to ensure that power quality standard is
maintained. The IEEE Standard 1547 states The DR unit shall be parallel with the
Area Electric Power System (EPS) without causing a voltage fluctuation at the point
of common coupling (PCC) greater than 5% of the prevailing voltage level of the
Area EPS at the PCC, and meet the flicker requirements of IEEE Std 1547-2003
4.3.2.[13]. The point of common coupling by definition is the point on the electric
circuit where the micro-grid is connected to the main-grid [10].
In Taiwan, the constraints for solar photovoltaic which is classified as distributed

generation (DG) include the following:
1. Voltage profile along distribution feeder should not deviate more than 5% of
nominal voltage.
2. Voltage at the point of common coupling (PCC) of a DGs should not deviate
more than 2.5% while DG interconnects to the PCC. [14].
To satisfy the voltage constraints (5%) and determine the maximum allowable
power injection by the PV, the voltage variation ratio is computed as follows [27]:
|1 0 |
= 100% (2.4)
0
where
is the voltage variation ratio,
1 is the nodal voltage after photovoltaic connection,
0 is the nodal voltage before photovoltaic connection.
8
The penetration level is defined as the ratio of the total capacity of PV units to
the total loading capacity of the feeder from the substation transformer [15]. In other
words, the penetration level is can be seen as the capacity penetration level, which
the installed capacity of the system over the peak load demanded on the system for a
given simulation day.

Penetration Level (%) = %= % (2.5)

where is the total loading capacity of distribution network from substation

transformer,
is the apparent power of PV which is assumed to be equivalent to the
active power ( ) of PV.
9
2.4 The Photovoltaic Inverter
The electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is DC (direct current), a

smart inverter is employed to convert that into AC (alternating current). This
alternating power is stepped up by a transformer to a suitable level to be fed to the
electric grid. The ideal inverter should be able to inject maximum power drawn from
the panel.
2.4.1 The Maximum Power Point
The solar module at low voltages is an ideal source of current as shown by the
graph of solar module characteristics at different irradiations in figure 2.3 below.
Nevertheless, the current decreases considerably as the voltage approaches
open-circuited voltage (i.e. when current is zero) [7].
Figure 2.3: I-V characteristics of solar module at different irradiations [3]
10
The output power from the solar module is a product of voltage and current.
Hence, multiplying the horizontal axis of figure 2.3 with the corresponding voltage
results is the illustrated in figure 2.4.
Figure 2.4: P-V characteristics of solar module at different irradiations [3]
At different solar irradiation when the solar module is open circuited (current is
zero) or short circuited (voltage is zero), no power is produced. At a defined point, on
the knee of the P-V graph, known as the maximum power point (MPP), the solar cell
reaches the maximum power and implying that the value of = [7]. Most
inverters are designed to operate at maximum power point in order to fully utilize the
efficiency of the solar module.
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2.4.2 The Maximum Power Point Tracker
There are a number of techniques for reducing the effects of DG interconnection.

An example of the mitigation strategies for over-voltage by the flexible smart inverter
is controlling the real power injected in the network by shifting the operating point of
PV system through maximum power point tracking (MPPT) algorithms [3].
It is assumed that the PV system is operating at unity power factor, and thus by
comparing the voltage variation along the distribution feeder with the voltage
variation constraint, the voltage at PCC can be kept within limits as illustrated in the
figure below.
Figure 2.5: Voltage control of active PV power generation
According to IEEE Standard 1547, the DG unit shall not actively regulate the
voltage at the PCC. Hence, the solar inverter is prohibited from directly measuring
the voltage at PCC and then adjusting its output accordingly, consequently voltage
control for PVDG is not the main focus of this thesis [13].
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2.5 Direct Solar Radiation
The solar radiation from the sun to the Earths atmosphere is relatively constant,
there are factor such as weather conditions, pollution, latitude location, time of day
and season of year that vary the radiation in the Earth surface [16]. A graph depicting
the intensity of direct radiation in kW/m at latitude 23 North in April 16th was used
as the ideal solar irradiance shown below.
Figure 2.6: A graph of direct radiation in kW/m for 24 hours [16]
The direct solar radiation shown in Figure 2.6 was used as an ideal solar
irradiation from the sun. The randomness of solar irradiation due to earths
atmospheric conditions is reasonably described by a Beta probability density function.
The initial input for generating stochastic samples of irradiance, using the Beta
probability density function, is the direct solar radiation. The Beta probability density
function has been proven to be effective in modeling the randomness of solar
irradiance [17].
13
2.6 Ambient Temperature
The ambient temperature is modeled from a real case. The measurements were
sourced from the Central Weather Bureau in the Ministry of Transportation and
Communications in Taiwan. They were used in ambient temperature inputs when
modeling the expected power output of the PVDG.
Graph of Temperature Measurements

70
60
Temperature (C)
50
40
30
20
10
0
5:30
6:15
7:00
7:45
8:30
9:15
13:00
10:00
10:45
11:30
12:15
13:45
14:30
15:15
16:00
16:45
17:30
18:15
Time
Figure 2.7: A graph of Temperature Measurements at Penghu County
The temperature measurements are taken from Penghu County in Taiwan. The date
they were measured is May 28th 2013 during the day.
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CHAPTER 3
MODELING SOFTWARE & PROBABILISTIC POWER FLOW
3.1 Introduction to OpenDSS
The PV system model was constructed in an open source platform known as

Open distribution System Simulator (OpenDSS). This software is well suited research
platform for distribution analysis application and maintained by Electric Power
Research Institute (EPRI) [18]. The flexible OpenDSS simulation engine is driven by
script and or other dynamic link libraries (DLL) developed by users [19]. There is a
Windows Component Object Model (COM) interface available which can be used to
link with external software such as MATLAB.
Figure 3.1: OpenDSS structure [20]
The architecture of OpenDSS is such that there is a DSS Executive that controls
the interaction between MATLAB and OpenDSS shown in figure 2.3. The distribution
system used is described by the circuit object under the Executive which has a
Solution and five classes of elements [19].
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Figure 3.2: OpenDSS Architecture [19]
3.2 Modeling of Photovoltaic Generator
There is a model used in the OpenDSS platform as a photovoltaic generator

shown figure 3.1. The model combines both the inverter and solar panel. The model is
able to have different input parameters, such as the inverter efficiency shape, the
temperature derating curve, var control modes and interconnection voltage levels. The
irradiance, ambient temperature and temperature of panel are variable that the user
sets. The execution of probabilistic power flow required the photovoltaic generator to
be modeled as a typical normal generator with certain amounts of output power as
depicted in the probabilistic power flow section to follow. This is due to the inability
of external software in controlling the PV element via the COM interface at the
moment.
Figure 3.3: Block diagram of a PV System element Model in OpenDSS [20]

16
3.3 Solar Panel Model
The solar panel was modeled based on parameters of the DeSolar D6p
photovoltaic module used in the study is shown in table 3.2. The D6p module was
modeled as a generator in MATLAB and that data was loaded in OpenDSS via the
COM interface.
Table 3-1: Parameters of DeSolar D6p photovoltaic module [21]

Specifications @ S = 1000W/ , T= 25 C & AM =1.5
Maximum power ( ) 131.4 W

Maximum power current ( ) 7.23 A
Maximum power voltage ( ) 18.17 V
Short circuit current ( ) 7.77 A
Open circuit voltage ( ) 21.85 V
Temperature coefficient of 3.25 (mA/C)
Temperature coefficient of -79.56 (mV/C)
17
3.4 MATLAB
Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB) a high level technical, scientific and numerical

computing environment was used in the development of algorithms, data analysis and
numerical computation [22]. This platform is a multi-paradigm numerical computing
environment that enables the user to perform computational functions as stand-alone
program or interfaced with other programs written with other languages, including
C++, C and Java.
Figure 3.4: MATLAB User Interface
MATLAB is a flexible software that can be used in a range of applications

including signal processing and communication, image and video processing, control
systems, test and measurement, computational finance, power system analysis and
computational biology [22].
18
3.5 Linking OpenDSS with MATLAB
OpenDSS can be linked with MATLAB via the COM interface. The COM
interface provides direct access to the text-based command interface as well as
numerous methods and properties of simulators models. This enables MATLAB
algorithms to run and execute power flows on the test distribution system developed
in OpenDSS. The distribution system simulator (DSS) can be implemented entirely
independent of any database or fixed text file circuit definition. The function
DSSStartup links the two software and allows MATLAB to drive simulations and
perform custom calculations and control on OpenDSS. The definition of the function
used in starting OpenDSS and providing a handle to the DSS via the Obj variable
when the function returns is shown in figure 3.5.
Figure 3.5: DSSStartup function
Linking the two programs proved useful in running the Monte Carlo simulation
and visualization of results through histogram plotting. To pass text statement from
MATLAB to OpenDSS the DSSText.Command function is used as shown in
Appendix C i.e. DSSText.Command = ['BatchEdit Generator.PV_1 kW =' num2str(genkw(k))];.
For this thesis, MATLAB functions were used to create both random solar
irradiance scenarios by using the Beta probability density function as well as random
load shapes. MATLAB, thereafter, drove OpenDSS to perform 10 000 simulations
for each of the four penetration level scenarios.
19
3.6 Probabilistic Power Flow
A probabilistic power flow (PPF) analysis is performed in order to measure the

performance of power system. The probability arises from the randomness of PV
generator output due to uncertain atmospheric conditions in conjunction with load
demand [23]. Using deterministic power flow analysis, it is difficult to measure
objectively how often and where voltage violations occur in a network during a period
of time.
Monte Carlo simulation used in performing the probabilistic power flow, is a

type of simulation which relies on repeated random sampling and statistical analysis
to compute the results [24]. This entails multiple power flow studies being run using
different sets of input data. The various sets of input data are typically obtained from
random number generators to correspond to some desired statistical distribution.
Figure 3.6: Block Diagram of Probabilistic Load Flow engine
20
The probabilistic power flow is based on Monte Carlo procedure and the steps are as
follows:
1. The Test Distribution Network is developed

in OpenDSS platform. The maximum iteration
is initialized. For each hour interval there were
1000 simulations.
2. With respect to the direct solar radiation,

the Beta function samples of random
irradiation are developed. Using equations 3.1
to 3.9 shown in next section, the expected
output power of PV (EP), a stochastic sample
of PV power is generated.
3. Using probabilistic load model, a stochastic

sample of load is also generated.
4. From the first to maximum iteration, the

power flow of the distribution network is
solved using OpenDSS.
Figure 3.7: Procedure flow chart for Probabilistic Load Flow
After performing Probabilistic Load Flow using Monte- Carlo, the stored results are
then statistically analyzed.
21
3.7 Random PV Generation Model
The PV model used to generate the stochastic of PV power output considering

randomness of DG power outputs are assumed be located in close proximity.
Therefore, the generator outputs were identical in the simulations.
According to reference [17], it has been proven that the random phenomena of
solar irradiance can be modeled effectively by using the Beta probability density
function (pdf). The solar irradiance distribution is given by:
(+)
(1) (1 )(1) 0 1, , 0
() = {()() (3.1)
0
(1)
= (1 ) ( 1) (3.2)
2

= 1 (3.3)
where () is the gamma function,

s is the random variable of solar irradiance (kW/ 2 ),
() is the Beta distribution function of s,
and are the parameters of Beta distribution function,
and are the mean and standard deviation of s respectively.
The power injected into the grid by the solar photovoltaic is controlled by
weather conditions which include the solar irradiance and the ambient temperature of
the plant site. Furthermore, the parameters of solar module contribute to the amount
of output power. To calculate the output power operating at maximum power point at
solar irradiance s, the following equations are used [17].
20
= + ( ) (3.4)
0.8
= [ + ( 25)] (3.5)
= (3.6)

= (3.7)

22
0 () = (3.8)
where is the PV module temperature,
is the ambient temperature,
is the nominal operating temperature of PV module,
is the short circuit of PV module,
is the open circuit voltage of PV module,
is the voltage temperature coefficient,
is the current temperature coefficient,
FF is the fill factor,
N is the number of PV modules used in the PV generation system,
is the voltage at maximum power point,
is the current at maximum power point,
0 () is the output power of PV generation system at solar irradiance s.
An expected output power of PV (EP) at solar irradiance s, can be calculated by the

combination of equation (3.1) and (3.8) resulting to:
() = 0 () * () (3.9)
3.8 Probabilistic Load Model
The normal distribution is the most prevalent load distribution model used [23].
The assumption of load is that of random variable normally distributed within
each hour of a given month [25]. Therefore, the probability density function of is
given by the following expression:
1 ( )2
( ) = ( ) (3.10)
2 22
where is the mean,

is the standard deviation and
is the load power.
23
All loads are correlated and follow the same probability density function. Hence,
a single probability density function can be used for all the loads on the network. The
feeder load is then distributed among the nodes in proportion to their rated capacity.
The mean and standard deviation for the load model are based on the typical
load shape of commercial load found in OpenDSS. The graph of this typical load
profile is shown on figure 3.8.
Typical Daily Load Curve
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
Load (p.u)
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324
Time (Hours)
Figure 3.8: Graph of a typical daily load curve
24
3.9 Statistical Analysis
After the probabilistic power flow simulations, the results were statistically
analyzed. The mean and standard deviation of the bus voltages was calculated using
the formula below [26].
The mean is given by

= =1 (3.11)

The standard deviation is given by

( )2
= =1 (1)
(3.12)
25
CHAPTER 4
TEST RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
4.1 The Test Distribution System
The test distribution system used for this project is a three phase 20 bus radial
system with detail properties tabulated in appendix A. In total there are 52 loads
supplied by a single 11.4 kV voltage source. The solar photovoltaic distributed
generation has the voltage rating of 0.576 kV and capacity rating of 1500 KVA. The
step up transformer used link PVDG to the network is a delta-wye transformer via a
PV bus. A steady state power flow solution for the test distribution system without
PVDG interconnection was obtained using OpenDSS platform and is shown in figure
4.1.
The main goal of this thesis is to study the effects of incremental solar
photovoltaic generation on the distribution network. The loads on this distribution
system are unbalanced. Their locations with respect to the substation bus vary but
load shape at specific time is assumed to be equal.
A simulation was performed to investigate the steady state operation of the

network without the connection of the distributed generation at the end of the lines.
The distribution system is operating at a frequency of 60 Hz and has both apparent
power rating and the single phase short circuit rating at 1038 MVA. The single phase
loads in this system, are supplied with input voltages of 6.5818 kV.
There are several medium length distribution lines which include Line 12, Line
34, Line 23, Line 1617, Line 1718, Line 416, Line 1819 and Line 1920. These lines
are to exemplify a distribution system in a developing country that is characterized by
medium length lines connecting isolated rural communities that have relatively low
load. In order to mitigate power loss, a PVDG is interconnected with the power
system at the end of the line. The increase in size of the PVDG, results in penetration
level increase producing measurable voltage variations in the test feeder.
26
Figure 4.1: Test distribution feeder steady state power flow
27
4.2 Simulation with PVDG Interconnection
The test distribution shown in Figure 4.1 was interconnected with a PVDG thus
resulting in Figure 4.3. To increase the penetration level, a single PVDG is added
incrementally until a total of four are connected, two connected at Bus 13 and the
other two at Bus 20 via transformers that step up the 0.576 kV from PVDG to 11.4 kV.
The Power flow simulations were conducted for four scenarios of photovoltaic
penetration level.
Monte Carlo method was the preferred technique used to solve the probabilistic
power flow in the radial distribution network with photovoltaic distributed generation.
The number of simulation performed in order to determine the bus voltages was 10
000 in total for each penetration scenario.
The stochastic samples of solar irradiation, together with their statistical

description parameters, i.e. standard deviation and mean, were derived from the ideal
solar irradiation shown in Figure 2.4 using the Beta distribution function. The
resulting Table 4-1 and Figure 4.2 are shown.
Figure 4.2: Stochastic samples of Solar Irradiation
28
Table 4-1: Stochastic sample of Solar Irradiation mean and standard deviation
Standard
Hour Mean
Deviation
6 0.007 0.021
7 0.081 0.036
8 0.237 0.056
9 0.4 0.087
10 0.523 0.127
11 0.632 0.156
12 0.663 0.162
13 0.657 0.164
14 0.612 0.147
15 0.497 0.143
16 0.349 0.116
17 0.203 0.081
18 0.068 0.063
Using the direct solar radiation which is taken as the ideal solar irradiation
shown in figure 2.6, the stochastic samples of solar irradiation are generated. This is
performed by using equation 3.1, which describes the Beta distribution function of
solar irradiance. The purpose of the Beta function is estimate the solar irradiance due
to randomness of atmospheric events.
The number of DeSolar D6p solar panels used for each 1.5 MW PVDG plant
was calculated to be 9078, algorithm is shown in appendix G. The number of panels
was found by setting the solar irradiance to one (s = 1) and using the highest ambient
temperature from the real measurements. Thereafter, using equations 3.4 to 3.8
together with the parameters of DeSolar D6p panel and setting the 0 () = 1.5 .
This panel number is subsequently used in appendix E to calculate the expected
output power of PVDG.
29
The assumption used is that the voltage cannot be controlled at any bus except at
the substation, Bus 1. To analyze the impact of PVDG randomness using probabilistic
power flow, the following four cases were studied.
Case 1: One PV generator of capacity 1.5 MW is installed at Bus 20 in the test

distribution network. The penetration level in this scenario is 5%.
Case 2: Two PV generators are connected to the test distribution system. One
PVDG connected to Bus 13 and the other to Bus 20. Using equation 2.5, the
penetration level is 10 %.
Case 3: Three PVDG are connected to the test distribution system. Two PVDG
located at Bus 13 and one at bus 20. The penetration level in this scenario is
15 %.
Case 4: Four PV generators of 1.5 MW maximum output power each, are connected
as presented in Figure 5.2. The PV generation penetration in this case
according to equation 2.5 is 20%.
OpenDSS modeled the distribution system and was controlled remotely through
the COM interface by MATLAB. Since OpenDSS is unable to set PV elements as
active, normal generators were used in the probabilistic power flow simulation.
MATLAB algorithm generated the expected output of the PVDG using equation 3.4
to 3.9 as shown in appendix E. The solar irradiance used to calculate the expected
output power was derived from the Beta probability density function shown in
equation 3.1 to 3.3, using the ideal solar irradiance.
30
Figure 4.3: Test distribution feeder with PVDG connection for the different cases
31
Both the expected output power of PV and the load model, shown in appendix D,
were combined using Monte Carlo simulations in MATLAB to perform probabilistic
power flow as shown in appendix C. The test distribution system modeled in
OpenDSS is shown in appendix B. In appendix B, the simulation depicted is for case
3 for the hour period of 16 to 17. The PPF was performed for a total of 10 hour period
per scenario, this is when solar irradiance is of major effect to the distribution system.
The different case results for some hour periods was compiled through MATLAB as
histograms and are shown in the following sections.
4.3 Case one: 5% Penetration level
The first 10 000 simulations conducted were for the first case consisting of only
one PV generator connected to the distribution system at Bus 20 via PV connection
bus. With reference to Figure 4.3, case one consist of PV_1 connected via Bus 21 and
transformer TR_1 to Bus 20. The penetration level was calculated using equation 2.5
to be 5%, this is illustrated in appendix H. Histograms of voltage variations ratio at
different time intervals from the various buses are shown as follows.
32
33
34
35
36
Table 4-2: Table of mean and standard deviation (SD) for case 1
Hour Bus 2 Bus 13 Bus 20
Period Mean Mean Mean SD Mean SD
Base case 1.0295 1.16E-14 1.0293 1.67E-14 1.0284 2.82E-14
7 1.0296 2.52E-04 1.0295 3.74E-04 1.0298 0.0027
8 1.0302 9.26E-04 1.0303 0.0014 1.0357 0.0099
9 1.0312 0.0013 1.0317 0.0019 1.0460 0.0139
10 1.0314 0.0011 1.0321 0.0017 1.0486 0.0122
11 1.0318 9.95E-04 1.0327 0.0015 1.0531 0.0107
12 1.0319 0.0011 1.0328 0.0016 1.0534 0.0115
13 1.0318 0.0011 1.0326 0.0016 1.0524 0.0116
14 1.0312 0.0012 1.0318 0.0017 1.0468 0.0125
15 1.0306 8.75E-04 1.0310 0.0013 1.0404 0.0093
16 1.0302 6.74E-04 1.0303 1.0E-03 1.0358 0.0072
The IEEE standard for interconnection of PVDG with grid states that the voltage
variation must be kept within the 5% of the nominal voltage. The first phase, i.e.
Phase A, of the three phase test distribution system was used in the analysis. The
histograms for the different hour intervals indicate that the solar photovoltaic has a
measurable impact on the voltage variation. At Bus 2, the voltage variation is minimal
at less than 0.35% at peak solar irradiation, whereas at Bus 20 the variation is above
3.5% which is above Taiwans standard but still within the IEEE 1547 standard.
Table 4-2 depicts the mean and standard deviation of phase A voltages calculated
using equation 3.11 and 3.12 respectively. The base case shows the resulting bus
voltages when there is no power injected by the PVDG to the network but there is
varying load hence the small standard deviation. The largest difference of voltage
variation caused by PVDG with the base case occurs when there is maximum
irradiance at hour period 12. The standard deviation increases the closer to the PVDG
the measurement are taken. The voltage quality risk is largest closer to the PVDG i.e.
Bus 20 has large voltage variation as compared to Bus 2.
37
4.4 Case Two: 10% Penetration level
The second case consists of two PV generators connected to the network at Bus
13 and 20 via PV bus, to the distribution system. With reference to Figure 4.3, this
scenario, case two, consist of PV_1 connected via Bus 21 and transformer TR_1 to
Bus 20 and PV_4 connected via Bus 24 and transformer TR_4 to Bus 13. The
penetration level in this case is 10% i.e. each 1.5 MW PVDG connection increases the
penetration level by 5%. Histograms of voltage variations at different time intervals
were drawn from the various simulation results.
38
39
40
41
42
Bus 2 Bus 13 Bus 20
Hour Mean Mean Mean SD Mean SD
Base case 1.0295 1.16E-14 1.0293 1.67E-14 1.0284 1.16E-14
7 1.0298 5.03E-04 1.0301 0.0015 1.0298 5.03E-04
8 1.0309 0.0018 1.0334 0.0055 1.0309 0.0018
9 1.0328 0.0026 1.0391 0.0078 1.0328 0.0026
10 1.0333 0.0023 1.0406 0.0068 1.0333 0.0023
11 1.0341 0.0020 1.0431 0.0060 1.0341 0.0020
12 1.0342 0.0021 1.0433 0.0064 1.0342 0.0021
13 1.0340 0.0021 1.0427 0.0064 1.0340 0.0021
14 1.0330 0.0023 1.0396 0.0070 1.0330 0.0023
15 1.0318 0.0017 1.0360 0.0052 1.0318 0.0017
16 1.0309 0.0013 1.0333 0.0037 1.0309 0.0013
The results for 10% penetration level show significant increase in voltage
variation ratio especially at Bus 20. In comparison to case one, the histogram of
voltage variation on Bus 20 at hour 12 to 13 is more than 4%, whereas in case one it is
slightly above 3.5%. IEEE standard of DG interconnection is not violated in this case.
Comparing table 4-2 to 4-3, there is a slight increase in the mean voltages and
standard deviation excluding the base case.
43
4.5 Case Three: 15% Penetration Level
For case three, a total of three PVDG were interconnected with the distribution
system and the same simulation procedure as previous cases was conducted. With
reference to Figure 4.3, case three has same PVDG plants connected with an
additional plant of PV_3 connected via Bus 23 and transformer TR_3 to Bus 13. The
penetration level in this case at peak capacity is approximately 15%. The resulting
graphs from the simulations were as follows.
44
45
46
47
48
Bus 2 Bus 13 Bus 20
Base case 1.0295 1.16E-14 1.0293 1.67E-14 1.0284 2.82E-14
7 1.0299 7.55E-04 1.0307 0.0026 1.0302 0.0034
8 1.0316 0.0028 1.0366 0.0098 1.0378 0.0127
9 1.0345 0.0039 1.0467 0.0138 1.0510 0.0179
10 1.0352 0.0034 1.0493 0.0120 1.0544 0.0156
11 1.0365 0.0030 1.0537 0.0106 1.0602 0.0138
12 1.0365 0.0032 1.0540 0.0114 1.0606 0.0148
13 1.0363 0.0032 1.0530 0.0114 1.0593 0.0149
14 1.0347 0.0035 1.0475 0.0124 1.0520 0.0161
15 1.0329 0.0026 1.0411 0.0092 1.0438 0.0120
16 1.0316 0.0020 1.0367 0.0071 1.0379 0.0092
The histograms indicate that the bus voltage variations are within IEEE
stipulated boundaries. The voltage variation ratio at Bus 20 is slightly more than 4.5%
at hour 12 to 13 shown in Figure 4.29. The IEEE 1547 standard for interconnection of
PVDG is not violated in this case but the margin is small.
Table 4-4 shows the greatest difference in the mean voltage with respect to the
base case occurs at hour 12 and at Bus 20. Therefore, it can be deduced that a
guarantee in voltage standard adherence in Bus 20 implies adherence to voltage
standards at both Bus 13 and Bus 2. The solar irradiance rise also increases the
magnitude of standard deviation from the mean. The lower the standard deviation, the
superior the power quality.
49
5.3 Case Four: 20% Penetration Level
The final simulation conducted had four PVDG connected to the test feeder, two
at Bus 13 and the other two at Bus 20. With reference to Figure 4.3, case four has all
four PVDG plants connected to the distribution grid. The penetration level in this case
is 20 %. The results from the simulations are shown in the following figures.
Figure 4.32: Case 4 -Voltage Variation Ratio on Bus 4 at hour 12 to 13
50
51
Figure 4.36: Case 4 -Voltage Variation Ratio on Bus 13 at hour 16 to 17
52
53
Bus 4 Bus 13 Bus 20
Base case 1.0295 1.16E-14 1.0293 1.67E-14 1.0284 2.82E-14
7 1.0300 0.0010 1.0309 0.0030 1.0316 0.0061
8 1.0323 0.0037 1.0376 0.0111 1.0455 0.0230
9 1.0361 0.0052 1.0492 0.0157 1.0694 0.0327
10 1.0371 0.0045 1.0522 0.0137 1.0756 0.0285
11 1.0387 0.0040 1.0572 0.0121 1.0860 0.0252
12 1.0389 0.0043 1.0576 0.0130 1.0868 0.0271
13 1.0385 0.0043 1.0564 0.0130 1.0844 0.0272
14 1.0364 0.0046 1.0501 0.0141 1.0712 0.0294
15 1.0340 0.0035 1.0428 0.0105 1.0561 0.0217
16 1.0323 0.0027 1.0377 0.0081 1.0455 0.0166
At 20 % penetration level, the bus voltages rises as expected, this is proven by

the increase in mean voltages shown in Table 4-5 in comparison to the other cases.
The histograms illustrate a significant voltage variation ratio at all the buses measured
but still Buses 2 and 13 comply with IEEE 1547 standard for DG interconnection.
54
The voltage violation occurs at Bus 20, at hour 7 the voltage variation ratio is
within bounds but at hour 12 to 13 shown in Figure 4.38 and at hour 16 to 17 shown
in Figure 4.38, the voltage variation is above 5%. It can be deduced from the mean
that violation starts at hour 8 till hour 16 implying that the PVDG in this case can
function for only 1 hour of the day. Therefore, the penetration level that can best be
utilized in this test distribution system is case 3 of 15% penetration level with respect
to IEEE 1547 regulations.
The simulation time in seconds for each hour period in the four cases is shown in
Table 4-6. Each scenario took approximately four minutes to simulate.
Table 4-6: Simulation time in seconds for the different cases

Hour Simulation time (sec)
Period Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4
Base case 22.93 22.57 23.43 24.37
7 23.36 23.28 23.81 23.98
8 23.72 23.22 23.24 23.94
9 24.18 23.97 23.54 23.84
10 24.44 23.84 22.85 24.19
11 23.09 23.92 25.10 23.78
12 23.82 23.49 24.79 24.03
13 27.16 24.26 24.05 23.96
14 25.50 24.26 24.58 23.81
15 23.88 25.30 23.53 24.20
16 23.86 24.43 24.30 23.90
55
CHAPTER 5
CONCLUSION AND FUTURE RESEARCH
5.1 Conclusion
The penetration level in conjunction with the number of PVDG plants has been
analyzed for a test distribution system. The test distribution feeder has medium lines
which resulted in moderate power loss and to reduce this PVDG were installed. A
probabilistic power flow method was developed based on the Monte Carlo technique
to evaluate the influence of randomness of PV generation on the performance of the
distribution system. This provides a methodology for distribution system operators to
assess the application for new connection of renewable PVDG in the distribution
systems. A stochastic model of solar irradiation was used, described by the Beta
probability density function.
An algorithm calculating the PVDG power output was formulated in MATLAB

based on the equations 3.13 to 3.19. Using the solar PVDG outputs from MATLAB
algorithms, the probabilistic power flow of the test distribution system in OpenDSS
was executed. The voltages at Bus 2, bus 13 and bus 20 were measured and stored for
each simulation, only phase A was used in the analysis. There were one thousand
power flow simulations performed for each hour interval hence a total of ten thousand
power flow simulations of the test distribution system were executed per case with a
simulation time of slightly above four minutes.
The study involved analyzing the penetration level of different PVDG capacity
installed in the distribution system without violation the IEEE PVDG interconnection
standard of 5% voltage variation ratio throughout feeder. In total there were four
cases of penetration level namely 5%, 10%, 15% and 20%, these involved PVDG
interconnection of 1, 2, 3 and 4 PVDG units of 1.5 MW each respectively.
56
The voltage variations experienced at Bus 2, 13 and 20 increases due to an
increase in PV penetration level. Assumption introduced consists of the absence of
voltage control devices in the distribution system except at the main substation (Bus
1). At penetration level of 5%, 10% and 15%, there system experiences minimal
voltage violations. From the analysis, the optimal penetration level was found to be
15% since voltage standards IEEE 1457 is not violated and anticipated for load
growth can be accommodated. To satisfy Taiwan standard of 2.5%, the PVDG
capacity must be reduced for the first case.
At 20% penetration level, only in hour 7 to 8 was the voltage variation ratio
within the IEEE boundaries. As the solar irradiation intensified in case 4, the mean
bus voltage at Bus 20 increased from 1.0284 p.u. to as high as 1.0868 p.u. with
standard deviation of 0.0271, the highest mean in all four cases. This scenario depicts
a voltage variation of more than 8% for the period of hour 12 to 13.
5.2 Future Research
OpenDSS is under development hence manipulation of PV generation output

through the use of the COM interface is currently not possible. When OpenDSS PV
model can be manipulated with solar irradiance and temperature using MATLAB
algorithms then future research can take advantage of that and may include inverters
control in the simulations increasing the accuracy of results.
Power system devices that mitigate over voltages and reduce the impact of PV
on voltage stability such as condenser, energy storage system, static synchronous
compensator (STATCOM), tap changing transformer, Plug in Hybrid electric vehicles
and other devices may be integrated with the power grid and analyzed.
Power curtailment techniques employed by PV smart inverters but have been

prohibited by the IEEE Std 1547 needs to be re-evaluated as the deregulation of the
power industry takes full effect. Detailed, high resolution research maybe undertaken
to give a clear picture of PV impact when smart inverters, illustrated in Figure 2.5, are
deployed.
57
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60
APPENDIX A
Test Distribution System Parameters
Table A1: Load Parameters

Load Name Phase Bus # Config. Model kV kVA PF
Load_2a 1 2 wye 1 6.5818 7 0.99
Load_2b 1 2 wye 1 6.5818 10 0.99
Load_2c 1 2 wye 1 6.5818 11 0.99
Load_3a 1 3 wye 1 6.5818 9 0.99
Load_3b 1 3 wye 1 6.5818 12 0.99
Load_3c 1 3 wye 1 6.5818 7 0.99
Load_4a 1 4 wye 1 6.5818 6 0.99
Load_4b 1 4 wye 1 6.5818 10 0.99
Load_4c 1 4 wye 1 6.5818 8 0.99
Load_5a 1 5 wye 1 6.5818 5 0.99
Load_5b 1 5 wye 1 6.5818 16 0.99
Load_5c 1 5 wye 1 6.5818 4 0.99
Load_6a 1 6 wye 1 6.5818 30 0.99
Load_6b 1 6 wye 1 6.5818 10 0.99
Load_6c 1 6 wye 1 6.5818 30 0.99
Load_7a 1 7 wye 1 6.5818 35 0.99
Load_7b 1 7 wye 1 6.5818 15 0.99
Load_7c 1 7 wye 1 6.5818 15 0.99
Load_8a 1 8 wye 1 6.5818 15 0.99
Load_8b 1 8 wye 1 6.5818 22 0.99
Load_8c 1 8 wye 1 6.5818 20 0.99
Load_9a 1 9 wye 1 6.5818 14 0.99
61
Load Name Phase Bus # Config. Model kV kVA PF
Load_9b 1 9 wye 1 6.5818 12 0.99
Load_9c 1 9 wye 1 6.5818 14 0.99
Load_10a 1 10 wye 1 6.5818 15 0.99
Load_10b 1 10 wye 1 6.5818 20 0.99
Load_10c 1 10 wye 1 6.5818 13 0.99
Load_11a 1 11 wye 1 6.5818 10 0.99
Load_11b 1 11 wye 1 6.5818 10 0.99
Load_11c 1 11 wye 1 6.5818 24 0.99
Load_12b 1 12 wye 1 6.5818 22 0.99
Load_12c 1 12 wye 1 6.5818 22 0.99
Load_13a 1 13 wye 1 6.5818 11 0.99
Load_13b 1 13 wye 1 6.5818 10 0.99
Load_13c 1 13 wye 1 6.5818 0 0.99
Load_14a 1 14 wye 1 6.5818 21 0.99
Load_14b 1 14 wye 1 6.5818 21 0.99
Load_14c 1 14 wye 1 6.5818 41 0.99
Load_15a 1 15 wye 1 6.5818 20 0.99
Load_15b 1 15 wye 1 6.5818 20 0.99
Load_15c 1 15 wye 1 6.5818 30 0.99
Load_16a 1 16 wye 1 6.5818 15 0.99
Load_16b 1 16 wye 1 6.5818 15 0.99
Load_16c 1 16 wye 1 6.5818 26 0.99
Load_17a 1 17 wye 1 6.5818 25 0.99
Load_17b 1 17 wye 1 6.5818 15 0.99
Load_17c 1 17 wye 1 6.5818 10 0.99
Load_18a 1 18 wye 1 6.5818 15 0.99
Load_18b 1 18 wye 1 6.5818 20 0.99
Load_18c 1 18 wye 1 6.5818 0 0.99
Load_19a 1 19 wye 1 6.5818 25 0.99
Load_19b 1 19 wye 1 6.5818 25 0.99
Load_19c 1 19 wye 1 6.5818 15 0.99
Load_20a 1 20 wye 1 6.5818 10 0.99
Load_20b 1 20 wye 1 6.5818 15 0.99
Load_20c 1 20 wye 1 6.5818 10 0.99
62
Table A2: Line Parameters
Bus Bus Emergency Length
Name Phases 1 2 Line Code Amps (km)
Ln_29 3 2 9 3C1AWG3 168 0.085
Ln_910 3 9 10 3C1AWG3 168 0.04
Ln_1011 3 10 11 3C1AWG3 168 0.05
Ln_414 3 4 14 3C1AWG3 168 0.45
Ln_1415 3 14 15 3C1AWG3 168 0.03
Ln_416 3 4 16 3C1AWG3 168 0.17
Ln_1617 3 16 17 3C1AWG3 168 0.055
Ln_1718 3 17 18 3C1AWG3 168 0.07
Ln_312 3 3 12 3C1AWG3 168 0.18
Ln_1213 3 12 13 3C1AWG3 168 0.15
Ln_12 3 1 2 500MCM3 417 0.56
Ln_25 3 2 5 3C1AWG3 168 0.155
Ln_34 3 3 4 500MCM3 417 1.65
Ln_56 3 5 6 3C1AWG3 168 0.08
Ln_67 3 6 7 3C1AWG3 168 0.05
Ln_23 3 2 3 500MCM3 417 0.27
Ln_78 3 7 8 3C1AWG3 168 0.105
Ln_1819 3 18 19 3C1AWG3 168 0.11
Ln_1920 3 19 20 3C1AWG3 168 0.27
63
APPENDIX B
Test Feeder circuit OpenDSS code
Clear
!NEW SYSTEM DEFINITION------------------------------------------------------------
New object=circuit.Test_Feeder
~ bus1=N_1.1.2.3 Phases=3 basekv=11.4 pu=1.03 Frequency=60 Mvasc3=1038 Mvasc1=1038 R1=0
X1=0.0001 R0=0 X0=0.0001 BaseFreq=60
set DefaultBaseFreq=60
!LOAD SHAPE------------------------------------------------------------------------
New "LoadShape.Load_0" npts=8760 interval=1 mult=(File=Loadit.CSV)
!LOAD DEFINITIONS----------------------------------------------------------------
New Load.Load_2a bus1=N_2.1 Phases=1 Kv=6.5818 Pf=0.99 kVA=7 Daily=Load_0
New Load.Load_2b bus1=N_2.2 Phases=1 Kv=6.5818 Pf=0.99 kVA=10 Daily=Load_0
New Load.Load_2c bus1=N_2.3 Phases=1 Kv=6.5818 Pf=0.99 kVA=11 Daily=Load_0
64
65
!PVG DEFINITIONS------------------------------------------------------------
New generator.PV_1 bus1=N_21.1.2.3 Phases=3 pf=1 conn=delta kw=0
New generator.PV_2 bus1=N_22.1.2.3 Phases=3 pf=1 conn= delta kw=0
!TRANSFORMER DEFINITIONS----------------------------------------------------------
New Transformer.Tr_1 Phases=3 Windings=2 XHL=(8 1000 /)
~ Wdg=1 bus=N_20.1.2.3 Conn= delta kv=11.4 kva=2000 %r=0.51 XHT=4
~ Wdg=2 bus=N_21.1.2.3 Conn=wye kv=0.576 kva=2000 %r=0.51 XLT=4
!REDIRECT TO LINE CODES--------------------------------------------
redirect TPLineCode.dss
!LINES DEFINITIONS------------------------------------------------------------
New Line.Ln_29 bus1=N_2.1.2.3 bus2=N_9.1.2.3 Linecode=3C1AWG3
Length=0.085 Phases=3 Emergamps=168 Units=km
66
New Line.Ln_12 bus1=N_1.1.2.3 bus2=N_2.1.2.3 Linecode=500MCM3
67
APPENDIX C
Probabilistic Power Flow using Monte Carlo code in MATLAB
clear;
tic;
vxMC12 = []; %Initialize array to store Voltages from PV monitor for hour 12 to 13
am12PV_output;% hour 12 to 13 PV generator output
genkw = csvread('C:\Users\user\Documents\NSYSU\SIMULATIONS\generator.csv');
%Linking OpenDSS with MATLAB
[DSSStartOK, DSSObj, DSSText] = DSSStartup;
for k =1:999
random_load1;
%Compiling the test distribution system
DSSText.Command = 'compile
C:\Users\user\Documents\NSYSU\SIMULATIONS\Project2monte2.dss';
DSSCircuit=DSSObj.ActiveCircuit;
DSSSolution=DSSCircuit.Solution;
DSSSolution.Solve;
%Setting the PVDG to active
DSSCircuit.SetActiveClass('Generator');
%Generation variation of 4 PVDGs
DSSText.Command = ['BatchEdit Generator.PV_1 kW =' num2str(genkw(k))];
DSSSolution.Solve;
DSSText.Command = 'Export Voltages';
DSSSolution.Solve;
%Store the voltages of all buses
vxMC12 = [vxMC12;csvread('C:\NSYSU\Test_Feeder_EXP_VOLTAGES.csv',1,3) ];
end
%Write a CSV file with all the voltages for the 1000 power flow executed
csvwrite('vxMC12.csv',vxMC12);
toc;
68
APPENDIX D
Probabilistic Load Model - MATLAB code
% Read load shape from openDSS
v = csvread('C:\Users\user\Documents\NSYSU\SIMULATIONS\LoadShape1.csv',1,0);
R = v(:,1);
mu = mean(R);
sigma = std(R);
Z = normrnd(mu,sigma); %Normal Distribution for load shape profile
csvwrite('Loadit.csv', Z);
display (Z);
69
APPENDIX E
Solar PVDG output at hour 10 to 11 - MATLAB code
solar = csvread('C:\Users\user\Documents\NSYSU\SIMULATIONS\Solar_irradiance\Solar_irr_11.csv', 1, 0);

s = solar(:,1);
%Solar irradiance distribution function

mu = 0.523;
sigma = 0.127;
beta = (1-mu)*((mu*(1-mu))/(sigma^2));
alpha = (mu*beta)/(1-mu);
fb = betapdf(s,alpha,beta);
%Parameters of PV Module
TA = 55.37; % Ambient Temperature
NOT = 25; % Nominal operating Temperature
Ki = 3.25*10^-3;
Kv = -79.56*10^-3;
Voc = 21.85;
Vmppt = 18.17;
Imppt = 7.23;
Isc = 7.77;
N = 9078; %Number of Solar Panels
Tcy = ((NOT -20)/0.8).*s + TA;

Iy1 = (Isc + Ki.*(Tcy-25));
Iy = bsxfun(@times,Iy1,s);
Vy = Voc - Kv*Tcy;
FF = (Vmppt*Imppt)/(Voc*Isc);
Po = N*FF*Vy.*Iy;
%Expected output at solar irradiation is:

EP = bsxfun(@times,Po,fb);
G = transpose (EP);
csvwrite('generator.csv',G);
70
APPENDIX F
Statistical analysis of Bus 2 - MATLAB code
clc
clear
n = 24;
b = 2; % Bus N_2 Analysis
V1 = csvread('C:\Users\Teng\Documents\NSYSU\SIMULATIONS\vxMC7.csv',0,0);
v61 = V1(:,1);
v61 = transpose (v61);
x1 =((sqrt(3)* v61)/ 11400);
N31 = x1(b : n : end);
muN31 = mean(N31);
sigmaN31 = std(N31);
VVR31 = (abs(N30 - N31)./ N30)*100;
v66 = V6(:,1);
x6 =((sqrt(3)* v66)/ 11400);
N36 = x6(b : n : end);
muN36 = mean(N36);
VVR36 = (abs(N30 - N36)./ N30)*100;
v610 = V10(:,1);
x10 =((sqrt(3)* v610)/ 11400);
N310 = x10(b : n : end);
muN310 = mean(N310);
VVR310 = (abs(N30 - N310)./ N30)*100;
71
set(0,'DefaultAxesFontSize', 30)
%Histograms for Bus 13 Voltage Variation Ratio
figure();
[n3,b3] = hist(VVR31);
bar(b3,n3/sum(n3));
title( 'Histogram of Voltage Variation Ratio on Bus 13 at hour 7 to 8' );
ylabel( 'Probability Density' );
xlabel( 'Voltage Variation Ratio [%]' );
figure();
[n2,b2] = hist(VVR36);
bar(b2,n2/sum(n2));
figure();
[n1,b1] = hist(VVR310);
bar(b1,n1/sum(n1));
figure();
Hour = [0,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16];
Mean = [muN30,muN31,muN32,muN33,muN34,muN35,muN36,muN37,muN38,muN39,muN310];
SD =
[sigmaN30,sigmaN31,sigmaN32,sigmaN33,sigmaN34,sigmaN35,sigmaN36,sigmaN37,sigmaN38,sigm
aN39,sigmaN310];
dat = {Hour(1,1), Mean(1,1),SD(1,1); Hour(1,2), Mean(1,2),SD(1,2);Hour(1,3),
Mean(1,3),SD(1,3);Hour(1,4), Mean(1,4),SD(1,4);Hour(1,5), Mean(1,5),SD(1,5);Hour(1,6),
Mean(1,6),SD(1,6);Hour(1,7), Mean(1,7),SD(1,7);Hour(1,8), Mean(1,8),SD(1,8);Hour(1,9),
Mean(1,9),SD(1,9);Hour(1,10), Mean(1,10),SD(1,10);Hour(1,11), Mean(1,11),SD(1,11)};
columnname = {'Hour', 'Mean', 'SD'};
v = uitable(dat,columnname);
72
APPENDIX G
Number of Solar Panels MATLAB code
%Number of solar panels

s = 1; %maximum solar irradiance
Po = 1500000; %the maximum power output of photovoltaic
TA = 58.86; %Highest Ambient temperature at 13:00

NOT = 25; %Nominal operating Temperature
%Parameters of PV Module
Ki = 3.25*10^-3;
Kv = -79.56*10^-3;
Voc = 21.85;
Vmppt = 18.17;
Imppt = 7.23;
Isc = 7.77;
Tcy = ((NOT -20)/0.8)*s + TA;

Iy1 = (Isc + Ki*(Tcy-25));
Iy = Iy1*s;
Vy = Voc - Kv*Tcy;
FF = (Vmppt*Imppt)/(Voc*Isc);
N = Po/(FF*Vy*Iy);
display (N);
73
APPENDIX H
Penetration Level Calculation
According to equation 2.5

Penetration Level (%) = %= %

For case four where there are four PVDG plants (i= 4), then

= 1.5 + 1.5 + 1.5 + 1.5 = 6

The total loading capacity per phase of distribution network from substation
transformer for this network is given by:
= 300
Then substituting to equation 3.1;

6
Penetration Level (%) = = = 20%
300
74

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International Masters Program in Electric Power Engineering

National Sun Yat-Sen University

Photovoltaic Penetration Analysis for Distribution Systems

Considering Solar Irradiance Uncertainty

Maphila Wandile Kunene

Dr. Jen-Hao Teng

Lastly, I would like to thank my family, more especially my mother Rosemary

As the popularity of green energy gains momentum, the increase in solar

Keywords: Solar Photovoltaic, Solar Irradiance, Monte Carlo, Probabilistic Power

Table 3-2: Parameters of DeSolar D6p photovoltaic module...........17

Swaziland, a country in Southern Africa, has plenty of sunlight only produces

The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the behavior of a distribution

Digital simulation are used in the study of PV integration, for in comparison to

The thesis is comprised of five chapters. Chapter 1 is an introduction which

2.1 Solar Photovoltaic Energy

2.2 The Photovoltaic Panel

Figure 2.1: Equivalent circuit of PV cell [4]

where is the internal equivalent current source,

a is the permittivity of the diode.

where is short circuit current of PV cell with reference temp. Tn =250 C,

, the reverse saturation current is represented by

where is the band gap energy of the semiconductor and

2.3 Integrating Solar Photovoltaic to Grid

Solar arrays can be installed in a distribution system resulting in a decentralized

There are negative impacts of integrating solar PV to grid. This is a result of an

In Taiwan, the constraints for solar photovoltaic which is classified as distributed

where is the total loading capacity of distribution network from substation

The electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panel is DC (direct current), a

2.4.1 The Maximum Power Point

Figure 2.3: I-V characteristics of solar module at different irradiations [3]

Figure 2.4: P-V characteristics of solar module at different irradiations [3]

There are a number of techniques for reducing the effects of DG interconnection.

Figure 2.5: Voltage control of active PV power generation

Figure 2.6: A graph of direct radiation in kW/m for 24 hours [16]

Graph of Temperature Measurements

Figure 2.7: A graph of Temperature Measurements at Penghu County

3.1 Introduction to OpenDSS

The PV system model was constructed in an open source platform known as

Figure 3.1: OpenDSS structure [20]

3.2 Modeling of Photovoltaic Generator

There is a model used in the OpenDSS platform as a photovoltaic generator

Figure 3.3: Block diagram of a PV System element Model in OpenDSS [20]

Table 3-1: Parameters of DeSolar D6p photovoltaic module [21]

Maximum power ( ) 131.4 W

Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB) a high level technical, scientific and numerical

Figure 3.4: MATLAB User Interface

MATLAB is a flexible software that can be used in a range of applications

Figure 3.5: DSSStartup function

A probabilistic power flow (PPF) analysis is performed in order to measure the

Monte Carlo simulation used in performing the probabilistic power flow, is a

Figure 3.6: Block Diagram of Probabilistic Load Flow engine

1. The Test Distribution Network is developed

2. With respect to the direct solar radiation,

3. Using probabilistic load model, a stochastic

4. From the first to maximum iteration, the

Figure 3.7: Procedure flow chart for Probabilistic Load Flow

The PV model used to generate the stochastic of PV power output considering

where () is the gamma function,

An expected output power of PV (EP) at solar irradiance s, can be calculated by the

3.8 Probabilistic Load Model

where is the mean,

Typical Daily Load Curve

Figure 3.8: Graph of a typical daily load curve