МК 10 Feb 2017

,
10 2017

:

2017 .

.
.

2017 .
.
2019
. .

2017 .
.

.
. . .
. .
.
2017: ?
2017 .
27 /.
12%
29 /.
75%
45 /.
13%

?
-17
-16
-16
-15
-15
-15
-14
-14
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
-14 -14 -15 -15 -15 -16 -16 -17

25% 10% 1% 5% 20% 5% 17% 12%
60% 60% 60% 60% 65% 65% 73% 75%
15% 30% 39% 35% 15% 30% 10% 13%
:

, . USD
20

15

10
: 10

: 95%

200
180
160
140
120
100
80

60
40 , USD
All Commodity Price Index, 2005 = 100

20
Crude Oil (petroleum), Price index, 2005 = 100
0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
52% (9,4 ..)
1990

50
13,1
40
13,1
13,1
13,6
14,2
14,5
14,5
14,5
14,5
14,5
14,4
14,4
14,4
14,3
14,1
14,1
13,9
13,8
30
13,7
13,7
13,8
13,7
13,6
13,5
12,1
12,3
11,6
11,6
11,6
11,6
11,6
11,6
11,6
11,5
11,5
11,5
11,5
20
10
18,2
18,2
18,2
17,5
16,6
15,9
14,9
14,0
12,7
12,3
11,6
11,4
11,3
11,2
11,1
11,1
11,0
10,9
10,7
10,5
10,4
10,3
10,2
10,1
9,1
8,8
8,8
8,7
8,6
8,5
8,3
8,1
7,8
7,7
7,5
7,3
7,2
0

" "
,

8,8 ..

45

40

7,0
35
30

,
25
11,6 " "
20

15
4,4
10 3,2

5
8,8

0
2016
7,2
,

45
40
7,0 7,0 7,0 7,0 7,0 7,0 7,0 7,0 7,0

35
7,0 7,0 7,0
30
25
12,3 11,6 11,6 11,6 11,6 11,6 11,6 11,6 11,5 11,5 11,5 11,5
20
15
10
5
8,8 8,8 8,7 8,6 8,5 8,3 8,1 7,8 7,7 7,5 7,3 7,2
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
" " ,

0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2015
2013
2011
2009
..
2007

2005
2003
2001
1999

1997
1995
1993

1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975

1973

1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
1959

1957
1955
1953
1951
1949
1947
1945
1943
1941

1939
1937
2020: , -

45
40
7,0
35

30
,
25
11,6 " "

20

15
4,8
10
2,9

8,3
5
0

2020
-
:
-

()

15
, ..
15
14
14
13

-1,4 .
13

12
-0,7 .
12
11
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201723
15%

20%
17,5%
17,5%
16,6%
16,5%
18%
15,5%
14,6%
14,5%
14,5%
14,4%
13,9%
16%
13,8%
13,3%
14%
12%
9,7%
10%
8%
5,9%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201724
11%
: 15,2%
17,7%
20%
17,1%
16,6%
16,2%
16,2%
15,3%
18%
13,4%
16%
13,1%
12,6%
12,1%
14%
11,1%
11,0%
11,2%
12%
9,7%
9,4%
9,1%
8,9%
8,8%
8,3%
8,1%
10%
7,1%
7,1%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
http://www.pfu.gov.ua/
https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/kabmin-utverdil-byudzhet-pensionnogo-fonda-1484735885.html 25

, % (2014)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Greece
Italy
Portugal
France
Austria
Denmark
Finland
Serbia
Spain
Belgium
Germany
Poland
Switzerland
Netherlands
Sweden
United Kingdom
Slovenia
Ukraine (2017)
Croatia
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Norway
Czech Republic
Hungary
Iceland
Bulgaria
Slovakia
Malta
Turkey (2013)
Romania
Latvia
Estonia
Lithuania
Ireland
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/social-protection/data/main-tables

(?)

, /
5
10
20
40
80
160
320
1963
1963
1964
1965
1966
Oil
1967
1968
1969
Wheat
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

1980 = 100
2016

/

2 000 000 50%
40%
1 800 000
30%
1 600 000
20%
1 400 000
10%
1 200 000
0%
1 000 000
-10%
800 000
-20%
600 000 -30%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
, % / (RHS)
(12 .), ..
, % / (RHS)

60%
, % /
PPI, % /
50%
CPI, % /
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-10%

:

:
-

80%
80
%

70 70%

( )

60
60%
( )
50 50%
40 40%
30 30%
20 20%
10 10%
0 0%
2003-4
2014-4
2015-4
2016-4
2003-4
2014-4
2015-4
2016-4
2004-4
2005-4
2006-4
2007-4
2008-4
2009-4
2010-4
2011-4
2012-4
2013-4
2004-4
2005-4
2006-4
2007-4
2008-4
2009-4
2010-4
2011-4
2012-4
2013-4

:

https://www.equities.com/news/will-2017-be-the-year-of-tax-reform

90 .$
80 -
( )
70
,
( )
60
, .USD
50

40
30
20
10
0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-10

6 000 35 000
, USD 1 .. 30 000
5 000
. (..) 25 000
4 000
20 000

3 000 2006-08

2011-13 15 000
2 000
10 000
1 000

5 000
0 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
:

2017
, Eurobonds / US Interest
7 .USD
6,1 ()
6
5,3
5 4,7
4,1
3,9
4 3,6 3,5
2,9
3 2,4
2
1,3
1
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
: ?
Dec-17 = 29,3
30
./. 2016
UAH %
1997
/
25
2000 USD %
2004
2007
=
20
2009
2013
2000
UAH/USD () 2009
15 2016
2004
2013
2008
10
1997
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

45 000
, .USD
40 000
, .USD
35 000

30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-5 000

?

500

. .
400

300
200
100
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019

55% US$, % /

45%
M3
35%
25%
15%
5%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-5%
-15%

-25%
-35%
-45%

1000

100
10
1
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
,
700
, ..
600

500

400 "

300
200
100
0

30 400
350
25
300
20
250
15
. UAHUSD 200
, .. (..)
10
150
5 2014 2015 2016 2017

100

30--2016, ..

26 090 30 295

185 025 21 087
32 295 155 388
6 940 40 689
-29 942

21 932
,
20 698
8 502 24 081
271 540 271 540
73 827
(Bail-in) -32 000
-16 065
() 116 800
, 48 913
https://privatbank.ua/about/finansovaja-otchetnost/#quarterly

1--2017, ..

31 185 12 664
( ?) 34 969 18 047
19 723 151 040
(?) 64 409 29 906
(?) 39 288
(?) 30 444 8 361
220 018 220 018
115 317
(Bail-in) -32 000
-16 065
https://bank.gov.ua/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=34661442&cat_id=34798593

() 20-50 ..
:
? 170-200 ..
.
: 64
6% 43
10%
( ),
( )
( ?)

90 000
USD mln. ,
80 000
,
70 000
60 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-20 000
-15 000
-10 000
-5 000
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
,
Jan-17
-1 200
-1 000
0
200
-1 600
-1 400
-800
-600
-400
-200
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15

Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16

Jan-17

700 UAH bln 70 USD bln

600 60
500 50
400 40
300 30
200 20
100 10
0 0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
:

6 1

., . $
20
Ukraine
15
Poland
10
0
:
:
1995
2014
http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/pol/ 77
: 2014

78
:
1995
2014
79
: 2014
80
:
1995
2014
81
: 2014

82

()
-

,

Cashless economy
Cash

:
,

2000 ($30)

$42 .
- $42 .

2,5%
, QoQ
2,0%
1,5%
1,0%
0,5%
0,0%
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016
(!)
$30 .
2 2016-17

.
cashless

BLOCKCHAIN

2030

NORDEA

$43 .

EUR 1 .

=>

: Cashless

:
", 1
2017 .

,

", - .
, ,

:
" ,
-

,

2
, -
", - .

10 2016
OECD CRS
MCAA

IT

1.
2.
3.
1.

3.
AML4
2. +

1:

/ / /
: - YouControl
2:

SPV SPV SPV SPV SPV SPV

: - YouControl
3:

: - YouControl
4:
SPV

SPV

: - YouControl

()

.
SPV 1 SPV N
-

1 N

1 N

1000 100
(18%) -18
(0-5%) (0-4.1)
(5%) -4.1
(1.5%) -1.23
76.67
(23.33%) 76.67

N

1000 100
(10%*) -100
100

80.5 (0%) 0
(18%) -18
(1.5%) -1.5

(19.5%) 80.5

1000 N
( 10%*)
* -

/
1000
95

100
(10%*) -100
100
N
( ) -100
1000 ( ) +95*
( 10%*)
0
* - , 1.5% ( )

1000 100
(10%*) -100
100
100 (0%) 0
(0%) 0
0

100
1000
1100
*
1000
( 10%*)

* -

FATCA OECD CRS,
.
,
/ ,
.

,
,
.

https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/Q1%202017%20Market%20Update_Fidelity.pdf
:

( )

?
?
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
Jan-00
Jun-00
Nov-00
Apr-01
Sep-01
Feb-02
Jul-02
Dec-02
May-03
Oct-03
Mar-04
Aug-04
Crude Oil, RHS

Jan-05
Jun-05
Nov-05
Nominal Dollar Index

Apr-06
Sep-06
Feb-07
Jul-07
Dec-07
May-08
Oct-08
Mar-09

Aug-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Apr-11
Sep-11
Feb-12
Jul-12
Dec-12
May-13
Oct-13
Mar-14
Aug-14
Jan-15
Jun-15
Nov-15
Apr-16
Sep-16
0
80
60
40
20
160
140
120
100
BP
http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook/energy-outlook-downloads.html

BP:
,

?
6,0% , % --
5,0%
4,0%
3,0%
2,0%
1,0%
0,0%
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
https://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/index.cfm?id=27762
:

La Nia:

:
245 3,50
Wheat
240
3,00
235
230
2,50
225
220
2,00
215
210
1,50
205
200 1,00
1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Area Harvested (million hectares) Yield (metric tons /hectare), RHS

https://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/grain-supply-and-demand-wasde
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
Production (million metric tons)

1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
Wheat
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

2016
Domestic disappearance (million metric tons)

300,00 45%
Wheat
40%
250,00
35%
200,00 30%
25%
150,00
20%
100,00 15%
10%
50,00
5%
0,00 0%
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Ending Stocks (million metric tons) % Ending Stocks of Domestic Use

https://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/grain-supply-and-demand-wasde/us-wheat-price-vs-ending-stocks-total-usage
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
1960/1961
1961/1962
1962/1963
1963/1964
1964/1965
1965/1966
1966/1967
1967/1968
1968/1969
1969/1970
1970/1971
1971/1972
1972/1973
1973/1974
1974/1975
1975/1976
1976/1977
1977/1978
1978/1979
1979/1980
1980/1981
1981/1982
1982/1983
1983/1984
1984/1985
1985/1986
1986/1987
1987/1988
Area Harvested (million hectares)

1988/1989
1989/1990
Corn
1990/1991
1991/1992
1992/1993
1993/1994
1994/1995
1995/1996
1996/1997
1997/1998
1998/1999
1999/2000
2000/2001
2001/2002
2002/2003
2003/2004
2004/2005
2005/2006
2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
2011/2012
2012/2013
2013/2014
2014/2015
2015/2016
2016/2017
Yield (metric tons /hectare), RHS
1,90
2,40
2,90
3,40
3,90
4,40
4,90
5,40
5,90
:
200,00
300,00
400,00
500,00
600,00
700,00
800,00
900,00
1 000,00
1 100,00
1960/1961
1961/1962
1962/1963
1963/1964
1964/1965
1965/1966
1966/1967
1967/1968
1968/1969
1969/1970
1970/1971
1971/1972
1972/1973
1973/1974
1974/1975
1975/1976
1976/1977
1977/1978
1978/1979
1979/1980
1980/1981
1981/1982
1982/1983
1983/1984
1984/1985
1985/1986
1986/1987
Corn
1987/1988
Total Domestic Use (Total Consumption)

1988/1989
1989/1990
1990/1991
1991/1992
1992/1993
1993/1994
1994/1995
1995/1996
1996/1997
1997/1998
1998/1999
1999/2000
2000/2001
2001/2002
2002/2003
2003/2004
2004/2005
2005/2006
2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
2011/2012
Production (million metric tons)
2012/2013
2013/2014
2014/2015

2015/2016
2016/2017
0,00
50,00
100,00
150,00
200,00
250,00
1960/1961
1961/1962
1962/1963
1963/1964
1964/1965
1965/1966
1966/1967
1967/1968
1968/1969
1969/1970
1970/1971
1971/1972
1972/1973
1973/1974
1974/1975
1975/1976
1976/1977
1977/1978
1978/1979
1979/1980
1980/1981
1981/1982
1982/1983
1983/1984
Ending Stocks (million metric tons)

1984/1985
1985/1986
1986/1987
1987/1988
1988/1989
Corn
1989/1990
1990/1991
1991/1992

1992/1993
1993/1994
1994/1995
1995/1996
1996/1997
1997/1998
1998/1999
1999/2000
2000/2001
2001/2002
2002/2003
2003/2004
2004/2005
2005/2006
2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
2011/2012
2012/2013
2013/2014
% Ending Stocks to Total Consumption, RHS
2014/2015
2015/2016
2016/2017
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%

https://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/grain-supply-and-demand-wasde/us-corn-price-vs-ending-stocks-total-usage
0,00
20,00
40,00
60,00
80,00
100,00
120,00
140,00
1975/1976
1976/1977
1977/1978
1978/1979
1979/1980
1980/1981
1981/1982
1982/1983
1983/1984
1984/1985
1985/1986
1986/1987
1987/1988
1988/1989
1989/1990
1990/1991
1991/1992
1992/1993
1993/1994
1994/1995
1995/1996
Soybean Area Harvested (million hectares)

1996/1997
1997/1998
Soybean
1998/1999
1999/2000
2000/2001
2001/2002
2002/2003
2003/2004
2004/2005
2005/2006
2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
:
2010/2011
2011/2012
2012/2013
2013/2014
2014/2015
2015/2016
2016/2017
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Soybean Production (million metric tons)

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1975/1976
1976/1977
1977/1978
1978/1979
1979/1980
1980/1981
1981/1982
1982/1983
1983/1984
1984/1985
1985/1986
1986/1987
1987/1988
1988/1989
1989/1990
1990/1991
1991/1992
1992/1993
1993/1994
1994/1995
1995/1996
1996/1997
1997/1998
Soybean
1998/1999
Soybean Ending Stocks (million metric tons)

1999/2000

2000/2001
2001/2002
2002/2003
2003/2004
2004/2005
2005/2006
2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
2011/2012
2012/2013
2013/2014
2014/2015
2015/2016
2016/2017
% Ending Stocks-to-Use, RHS
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%

https://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/grain-supply-and-demand-wasde/us-soybean-price-vs-ending-stocks-total-usage
(WEF), 2017
2016 2017

http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2017/the-matrix-of-top-5-risks-from-2007-to-2017/
(WEF), 2017
2016 2017

http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2017/the-matrix-of-top-5-risks-from-2007-to-2017/

2017
2017
1 2 3 4
20 9 7 24

G20

23 7

-
- 27 -

XIX
BREXIT

24 -
15 16
100 26

G7

: Capital Times
1 2017 .

2017 : 1
20 20 | |

-
- ( 44%)
- USD
- , .
-
-
15 | |

BREXIT
- (22%)
- - (16%)
-

- 17
- | | BREXIT

15 16 - - ,
- (42%)

-

-

: Capital Times, RasmussenReports, tomlouwerse.nl, ukpollingreport.co.uk

,

2017 : 2
9 9 | |

- -
23 7 - (29%)
- - -
- (36%)
-
23 | |

- - (27%)
- FREXIT - (23%)
26 - - (20%)
( )
G7
| |

- (33%)
24 - 5 - (27%)
- (12%)
-
100

: Les Echos, Thomson Reuters, Capital Times

2017 : 3
7 7 | | G20

G20 - -
-
-
- - /

27

: Capital Times

2017 : 4
24 24 | |

- (. ) (34%)
- -
(16%)
- -

| | XIX
XIX

- -

: Thomson Reuters, Capital Times

, 2017

UK

2017

, 2017

UK

.
(The Economist), 2017

20
- 15

15
% 12

12

12
-
- 12
2017 10

BREXIT 8
4

https://gfs.eiu.com/Archive.aspx?archiveType=globalrisk

PMI ( ) 50
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/world/manufacturing-pmi

1 2 3

2007-09 2011-13 2013-16

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
US
EUR
China
UKR
RUS
,
, ( )

156

Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan-
16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17
US 52,4 51,3 51,5 50,8 50,7 51,3 52,9 52,0 51,5 53,4 54,1 54,3 55,1
EUR 52,3 51,2 51,6 51,7 51,5 52,8 52,0 51,7 52,6 53,5 53,7 54,9 55,1
Ger 52,3 50,5 50,7 51,8 52,1 54,5 53,8 53,6 54,3 55,0 54,3 55,6 56,5
Fra 50,0 50,3 49,6 48,0 48,4 48,3 48,6 48,3 49,7 51,8 51,7 53,5 53,4
Italy 53,2 52,2 53,5 53,9 52,4 53,5 51,2 49,8 51,0 50,9 52,2 53,2 53,0
UK 52,9 50,8 51,0 49,2 50,1 52,1 48,2 53,3 55,4 54,3 53,4 56,1 55,9
Japan 52,3 50,1 49,1 48,2 47,7 48,1 49,3 49,5 50,4 51,4 51,3 52,4 52,8
China 48,4 48,0 49,7 49,4 49,2 48,6 50,6 50,0 50,1 51,2 50,9 51,9 51,0
India 51,1 51,1 52,4 50,5 50,7 51,7 51,8 52,6 52,1 54,4 52,3 49,6 50,4
Russia 49,9 49,2 48,2 48,0 49,6 51,5 49,5 50,8 51,2 52,4 53,6 53,7 54,7
Brazil 47,4 44,5 46,0 42,6 41,6 43,3 46,0 45,7 46,0 46,3 46,2 45,2 44,0
Turkey 50,9 50,3 49,2 48,9 49,4 47,4 47,6 47,0 48,3 49,8 48,8 47,7 48,7
Poland 50,9 52,8 53,8 51,0 52,1 51,8 50,3 51,5 52,2 50,2 51,9 54,3 54,8
World 51,6 51,8 51,5 50,8 51,1 50,9 50,8 50,4 50,4 51,1 51,0 50,7 50,9
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/manufacturing-pmi
:

%

,

.

,

.

: 96%

200 2500
180

160 2000
140
120 1500
100

80
1000
60
40 500
All Commodity Price Index, 2005 = 100
Crude Oil (petroleum), Price index, 2005 = 100

20
, USD (..)
0 0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
01.01.94
01.07.94
01.01.95
01.07.95
..
01.01.96
01.07.96
01.01.97
01.07.97
01.01.98
01.07.98
01.01.99
01.07.99
01.01.00
01.07.00
01.01.01
01.07.01
01.01.02
01.07.02
01.01.03
01.07.03

01.01.04
01.07.04
01.01.05
01.07.05
01.01.06
01.07.06
( )
01.01.07
01.07.07
01.01.08
01.07.08
01.01.09
01.07.09
01.01.10
01.07.10
( )
01.01.11
01.07.11
01.01.12
01.07.12
01.01.13
01.07.13
01.01.14
01.07.14
01.01.15
01.07.15
01.01.16

(-2,3% 2016 ),
01.07.16
01.01.17

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/balance-of-trade

2017 ,
Urals $40 .
Urals 50
, 1 .
.
Urals 55
,
1.4 . .

.

.
.

() :
Urals $55
64,9 /. ( 58,
).
-
.

172
?
:

30
http://thebulletin.org/timeline
1-
:
1953 1961 1969 1974 1981 1989 2001 2009
1963 1977 1993 2017
Q477
0790
0460 0391 1207
1173
0261 0575 0609
0753 1269 0781 0301
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA

http://www.conference-board.org/

https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/markets_sectors/sectors/si_business_cycle.jhtml?tab=sibusiness

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm

+
+
-- -- +
+ + +
+ USD --
+
:
.
(
)
1.
2. ,

3.

4.

5.
6.
7.
8. (
?)
9.
181

10.

Trumponomics:

USD 1,034
1,00 0,95 0,90 1,20

2282
2200 1840 1430 1250
1122
1100 1380 1450 1680
42 70 30 25 20

REITs
182

?

us default Google

2011 . 2013 .
https://www.google.com.ua/trends/explore?date=all&q=us%20default
: $20 .
$10 . 9
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MVGFD027MNFRBDAL

56% 72%
90% 1
1
85%
1
80%
1
75%
1
70% 1
0
65%
0
60%
0

55%
0

50% 0
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012

$400-470 .
0 1
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
-50 1
-100 1
-150 1
-200 1
-250 1
-300 0
-350 0
-400 0

-450 0
Interest Expense on the Debt Outstanding
-500 0
%

10% 30%
9%
25%
8%
7%
20%
6%
5% 15%
4%
10%
3%
2%
5%
1% 10-
% , ..
0% 0%
1988
1988
1989
1990
1991
1991
1992
1993
1994
1994
1995
1996
1997
1997
1998
1999
2000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2003
2004
2005
2006
2006
2007
2008
2009
2009
2010
2011
2012
2012
2013
2014
2015
2015
2016

,

20% 1
1
15%
1
10%
1
5%
1
0% 1
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
0
-5%
0
-10%
0
-15% 12 ., % /
0

-20% 0

400 1
200 1
0 1
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
-200 1
-400 1
-600 1
-800 0
-1000 0
-1200 0
12 ., USD
-1400 0

-1600 0

$650 . $1 . ( $800 .)
?
$800 . 2017
2 000 -1600
-1400
1 500 -1200
Federal Debt Held by the Public 12

-1000

1 000 -800
12 , USD ( .)
-600
500 -400
-200
0 0
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
200
-500 400

QE4
1 000 1
12 ., USD
1

800
1
600 1
1
400
200
0
0 0
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
0
-200
0
-400 0

1 000 1
12 ., USD
1
800
1
600
1
1
400
200
0
0
0
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
0
-200
0
-400 0

.
12-
1 100
900
700
500
300
100
-100

-300

-500
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2016 MMF
$800 .
2 500 GOVERNMENT PRIME TAX-EXEMPT
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0

: $140 .

: $150 .

36% $800 .

S&P 500 2017 : $2,6 .
BTA

(BTA) 20%:
- 25%;
- ( ) ;
- 10-20%;
- 5%;
- % ;
- .

USD

: , % USD
EURUSD 10-
%
,
%
https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/market-and-economic-insights/business-cycle-update-December-2016
= USD
,
,

EURUSD

1,2
0,9
EURUSD 1971-2017
:

0,9

Homeland Investment Act (2004)

USD
:

1,2
:

. 10-
UST .
1,12
EURUSD 10-

(
)

$11 .

.
( ).
( ).
-
.

% %

?
1: SDR
SDR

.
.
2:

3:

?
:

///

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-23/yuan-downside-breakout-and-what-it-means-spoiler-alert-nothing-good

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-23/yuan-downside-breakout-and-what-it-means-spoiler-alert-nothing-good

http://policyuncertainty.com/index.html

235

: 2016
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
38,9% 22,5% 76,0% 29,3% 29,3% 20,8% 25,9% 30,1% 2,2% 11,6% Emerging Markets
31,6% 6,7% 39,1% 28,3% 13,2% 18,6% 24,7% 25,3% 1,6% 11,2% High Yield Corporate Bonds
30,5% 4,9% 31,9% 18,9% 9,6% 17,5% 11,7% 10,8% 0,7% 10,1% Commodities
13,8% 1,6% 29,6% 12,4% 8,6% 14,4% 4,5% 9,7% 0,6% 8,3% REIT
11,6% 0,4% 24,0% 12,0% 8,5% 12,6% 2,3% 9,7% 0,5% 8,0% Gold
9,2% -2,4% 21,1% 9,0% 7,1% 11,6% 1,4% 4,6% 0,0% 6,8% S&P 500
7,9% -2,9% 15,3% 8,9% 2,5% 9,5% 0,0% 3,8% 0,0% 6,1% Global Bonds (USD Hedged)
5,0% -13,6% 11,2% 8,5% 2,3% 6,8% -0,1% 0,9% -1,4% 5,2% Investment Inflation
4,7% -21,3% 10,8% 7,2% 0,3% 6,6% -0,8% 0,7% -1,5% 4,5% TIPS
3,5% -37,1% 3,9% 6,2% 0,0% 3,5% -1,8% 0,4% -1,8% 1,4% Consumer Inflation PCE
3,4% -44,7% 2,1% 4,9% 0,0% 1,7% -5,2% 0,0% -2,0% 1,2% Long Term Treasury
2,0% -45,8% 1,4% 2,6% -3,3% 0,7% -8,9% -2,2% -10,7% 1,1% Short Term Treasury
0,5% -48,6% 0,1% 1,4% -11,6% 0,1% -13,0% -6,7% -15,5% 0,2% Cash
-16,5% -52,8% -12,1% 0,1% -18,8% -0,6% -28,3% -33,0% -34,1% -0,8% European Stocks
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/historical-asset-class-returns
Capital Times


2016

+17,8% +38%
BRL BOVESPA
+16,3% +52%
RUB RTS

EPS

1 000
100
Corporate Profits with Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), Billions of Dollars, Quarterly, Seasonally
Adjusted Annual Rate
SP500
10
1947
1948
1950
1951
1952
1954
1955
1957
1958
1959
1961
1962
1964
1965
1967
1968
1969
1971
1972
1974
1975
1976
1978
1979
1981
1982
1984
1985
1986
1988
1989
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2015
2016
12
120
Feb-85
Nov-85
Aug-86
May-87
Feb-88
Nov-88
Aug-89
May-90
Feb-91
Nov-91
Aug-92
May-93
Feb-94
Nov-94
Aug-95
May-96
Feb-97
Nov-97
Aug-98
May-99
EPS
Feb-00
Nov-00
Aug-01
May-02
Feb-03
Nov-03
Aug-04
May-05
Feb-06
Nov-06
Aug-07
May-08
Feb-09
Nov-09
Aug-10
May-11
Feb-12
Nov-12
Aug-13
May-14
Feb-15
Nov-15

Aug-16
May-17
S&P 500 PE
EPS
EPS

2017 :
EPS $127-130 (+20%
/).

(+12
109).

Goldman Sachs
EPS $116 (+7%
/).
S&P 500
15
Jan-85
Sep-85
May-86
Jan-87
Sep-87
May-88
Jan-89
Sep-89
May-90
Jan-91
Sep-91
May-92
Jan-93
Sep-93
May-94
Jan-95
Sep-95
May-96
Jan-97
Sep-97
May-98
Jan-99
Sep-99
May-00
SP500
Jan-01
Sep-01
May-02
Jan-03
Sep-03
May-04
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
12-. Forward EPS S&P 500 0,94
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
EPS
May-12
Jan-13
S&P 500
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
S&P 500 COMPOSITE - 12MTH FWD WTD EPS
May-16
150
1500
=> P/E
10-Yr UST
%
%

.
.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=cqlj

%
%
( 40%
(60%)
)
EPS : 50 - 100% : 50 - 100%
( 60% : 0 - 50% : 0 - 50%
) : 0% : 0%
EPS

(40%)
DM
https://www.jpmorganam.com.au/MI/GTM.pdf
EM
https://www.jpmorganam.com.au/MI/GTM.pdf

https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/market-and-economic-insights/business-cycle-update-December-2016
17- E-
255

,

10-
130
80%
, %
60%
40%
20%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

-20%
, %
-40%

S&P 500
130
150%
, %
100%
50%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

-50%
, %
-100%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
1871/01
1873/10
1876/07
1879/04
1882/01
1884/10
1887/07
1890/04
1893/01
1895/10
1898/07
Apr-01
Jan-04
Oct-06 S&P 500 (17 )
Jul-09
Apr-12
S&P 500 (17 ),
Jan-15
Oct-17
Jul-20
Apr-23
Jan-26
Oct-28
Jul-31
Apr-34
Jan-37
Oct-39
Jul-42
Apr-45
Jan-48
Oct-50
Jul-53
Apr-56
Jan-59
Oct-61
Jul-64
Apr-67
Jan-70

Oct-72
Jul-75
Apr-78
SPY
Jan-81
Oct-83
Jul-86
Apr-89
Jan-92
Oct-94
Jul-97
Apr-00
SPY 17
Jan-03
Oct-05
Jul-08
Apr-11
Jan-14
Oct-16
17
85% PE S&P 500
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
SPTR 1/PE
S&P 500 1/PE,

0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

99.9%
130 , 17-
(-0,3% ): S&P 500 1929
%
18,2%
16,3%
14,4%
12,4%
10,5%
8,6%
6,7%
5,5%
4,3%
3,2%
2,0%
0,8%
-0,3%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1871/01
1874/02
1877/03
1880/04
1883/05
1886/06
1889/07
1892/08
1895/09
1898/10
Nov-01
Dec-04
S&P 500 (17 )

Jan-08
Feb-11
Mar-14
S&P 500 (17 ),
Apr-17
May-20
Jun-23
Jul-26
Aug-29
Sep-32
Oct-35
Nov-38
Dec-41
Jan-45
6.4%
Feb-48
Mar-51
Apr-54
May-57
Jun-60
Jul-63
Aug-66
Sep-69
Oct-72
Nov-75
Dec-78
Jan-82
Feb-85
Mar-88
Apr-91
May-94
Jun-97
Jul-00
Aug-03
Sep-06
99,4% -0,07% 13,0% .
Oct-09
Nov-12
Dec-15
SPY 17 ( 70%).
13,0%
-0,07%
6,4%

SPY () IEF ()
19%
18%
17%
16%
15%
17
14% 13,0%
13%
12%
11%
10% :
9%

8%
( 1929 )
7%
6% SPY: 6,4%
5%
4%
3%
2% :
IEF: 2,8%
1%
UST

0%
-1% -0,07%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
0,01
0,10
1,00
10,00
100,00
1 000,00
10 000,00
1871/01
1875/01
1879/01
1883/01
1887/01
1891/01
1895/01
1899/01
Jan-03
Jan-07
Jan-11
Jan-15
Jan-19
Jan-23
Jan-27
Jan-31
Jan-35
Jan-39
Jan-43
Jan-47
Jan-51
Jan-55
Jan-59
Jan-63
Jan-67
Jan-71
Jan-75
Jan-79
Jan-83
Jan-87
SPY:
Jan-91
Jan-95
Jan-99
Jan-03
Crisis
Jan-07
Jan-11
Bear market
Jan-15
Jan-19
Jan-23
S&P 500
Jan-27
Jan-31
0
1
50%
200%
100%
150%
250%
300%
350%
0%
1871
1873
1875
1877
1879
188
188
188
188
188
189
189
189
1897
UST (17 )
189
Jan-01
Jan-03
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15

17
Jan-17
Jan-19
Jan-21
Jan-23
S&P 500 (17 ),
Jan-25
Jan-27
Jan-29
Jan-31
Jan-33
Jan-35
Jan-37

Jan-39
Jan-41
Jan-43
Jan-45
Jan-47
Jan-49
Jan-51
Jan-53
Jan-55
Jan-57
Jan-59
Jan-61
Jan-63
Jan-65
Jan-67
Jan-69
Jan-71
Jan-73
Jan-75

Jan-77
Jan-79
Jan-81
Jan-83
SPY
Jan-85
Jan-87

Jan-89
Jan-91
Jan-93
Jan-95
Jan-97
Jan-99
SPY
0%
5%
-5%
10%
15%
20%
-10%
SPY
17
S&P 500 (SPY) US Treasuries (IEF)
17 20
, % 6,4% 2,8%
:
/
1,5% 2,8%
4,9% -

99% , % 0-13% 2,8%
,
2,2% 0,8%
%
(4,6)-9% ()-+

( 100% 0-0,1% 1,6%
)

-
( 1929-33 .)
2 17
17
2 ,
SPY 30%
.
:
.
:
SPY .
!
Wealth Management | Corporate Finance
Capital Times
, , . , 12
www.capital-times.ua

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,

-14 -14 -15 -15 -15 -16 -16 -17

All Commodity Price Index, 2005 = 100

7,0 7,0 7,0 7,0 7,0 7,0 7,0 7,0 7,0

11,6 " "

600 000 -30%

5 2014 2015 2016 2017

SPV SPV SPV SPV SPV SPV

Crude Oil, RHS

Nominal Dollar Index

Area Harvested (million hectares) Yield (metric tons /hectare), RHS

Production (million metric tons)

Area Harvested (million hectares)

Total Domestic Use (Total Consumption)

Ending Stocks (million metric tons)

Soybean Area Harvested (million hectares)

Soybean Production (million metric tons)

Soybean Ending Stocks (million metric tons)

Crude Oil (petroleum), Price index, 2005 = 100

Federal Debt Held by the Public 12

85% PE S&P 500

S&P 500 1/PE,

S&P 500 (17 )

Wealth Management | Corporate Finance

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