WorkBC ChallengesandOpportunities

Challenges and
Opportunities
British Columbias
Labour Market Future
November 2009
Challenges and Opportunities
Contents
Introduction: Understanding British Columbias Labour Market 3
1. Our Future 4
A. Overview of the B.C. Economy 4
B. Forces for Change 6
C. Future labour market demand 10
D. Productivity 15
2. Our People 17
A. Population Growth and Demographic Shifts 17
B. Labour Market Participation 20
C. Other Labour Supply Indicators 26
D. In-Migration to B.C. 28
E. Educational Attainment of B.C. Labour Force 32
3. Our Challenge: The Right Knowledge and Skills in the Right Place at The Right Time 36
Appendices 38
Appendix 1: Key B.C. Labour Market Facts for 2008 38
Appendix 2: Local Area Economic Dependencies 39
Appendix 3: Employment, by Development Region and Sector, 2008 (in thousands) 41
Appendix 4: Employment Outlook for Industry Groups, B.C. 2007-2017 42
Appendix 5: Employment Outlook for Major Occupational Groups, B.C. 2007-2017 43
Appendix 6: Percent of Labour Force Age 25-54 with a Post-Secondary Certificate/Diploma or Higher 44
Appendix 7: Economic Development Regions 45
British Columbias Labour Market Future 1

2 Challenges and Opportunities
Introduction: Understanding
British Columbias Labour Market
No province has been immune from the impacts of the global economic
downturn we are currently facing. Fortunately, British Columbia has benefited
from a strong record of growth and is well positioned to resume growth when
the economy turns around. In particular, British Columbia is set to capitalize on
opportunities such as serving as the Pacific Gateway to Asia and investing in
emerging sectors such as bio-energy and other green technologies.
British Columbias labour market is affected by, and responds to changes
in the global economy. While in the short term this has meant climbing
unemployment across several sectors and regions, the long-term outlook for
a widespread skills shortage are not changing and will have a sustained effect
on British Columbia in the future.
The challenges underlying provincial labour market conditions include an
aging demographic, structural and global drivers of economic change that will
require sustained, thoughtful action to efficiently match a shrinking supply of
labour with increasing demand.
Government, business and researchers agree on the importance of addressing
the emerging labour market pressures facing the province. The following
analysis of B.C.s labour market takes into account multiple factors impacting
the provinces potential labour market in order to provide an empirical basis
for policy and program development. It also tells the story of how British
Columbias labour market is changing and what these changes could mean for
our people and our future as a province.
Section 1, Our Future, reviews major drivers of change in labour demand,
explores forecast labour market demand on a provincial, sectoral and occupa-
tional basis, and looks at trends in post-secondary education and productivity.
Section 2, Our People, addresses trends in labour market supply, such as
population growth and demographics, labour market participation, in-migra-
tion (both interprovincial migration and international immigration), foreign
qualification recognition, labour mobility and educational attainment.
Section 3, Our Challenge, provides a summary of the challenges and oppor-
tunities facing British Columbias labour market.
Throughout this document, readers should be aware that data presented is the
latest data available at the time of writing and thus represents a snapshot in
time. Forecasts are a best guess based on available information. With economic
conditions changing rapidly, it should be understood that forecasts present
one possible scenario and may become out of date. Efforts will be made to
update data in the report on a periodic basis.

1. Our Future
A. Overview of the B.C. Economy
British Columbias early economy was built on the strength of our rich
natural resources. Logging, mining, fishing and agriculture were dominant.
Even early manufacturing activities were based on the processing of natural
resources: canning Fraser River salmon, producing lumber and paper from
trees harvested in the provinces coastal and interior forests and extracting the
provinces rich mineral wealth. This early dependence on primary industries
helped forge an image of B.C. that persists to this day. It is little wonder, then,
that most people, when asked to name the biggest industries in the province,
continue to put forestry, mining, fishing and agriculture at the top of the list.
However, over the past several decades, the economy has undergone some
important transformations. A variety of new types of goods and services are
being made available to meet the needs of an increasingly multicultural popu-
lation. Technological and cultural changes have also had a big effect, as have
changes in the way companies do business. Linkages with Asia Pacific and the
growth of the green economy are also creating new business opportunities.
All of these changes have allowed B.C.s economy to mature into a more
diverse, less resource-dependent form. Primary goods production is giving way
to a greater emphasis on value-added manufacturing as well as other types of
goods and services production. While forestry, mining, fishing and agriculture
are still important especially in communities where they are big employers
they are no longer the sole dominant force in B.C.s economy. Indeed, since the
mid-1990s, there have been fewer people working in these industries than in
other types of goods production.
At present, only eight percent of B.C. workers have jobs in resource harvesting
and extracting industries such as agriculture, fishing, forestry and mining. Thats
down from about 13 percent in 1990. The combined contribution of Agriculture;
Fishing, Hunting and Trapping; Forestry; and, Mining, Oil and Gas to provincial
GDP has declined from 7 percent in 1998 to 5.5 percent in 2008.1 Wood product
exports declined from $10B in 2004 to $5.4B in 2008 due to low global lumber
prices. Employment in other types of goods production has picked up in
recent years after declining during the 1990s, and accounts for about 14 percent
of all the jobs in the province.
Over the past decade, British Columbias economy has undergone significant
growth and transformation across a broad base of industries. The top five
employers are retail trade, health services, accommodation, manufacturing
and construction.2 The provinces service exports have been steadily growing
as well, and two areas in particular hold potential for further growth transpor-
tation and tourism. Both of these service sectors are positioned to capitalize on
1 BC Stats. B.C. GDP by Industry 1998-2008: NAICS Aggregations.

2 Business Council of British Columbia Outlook 2020. Situating B.C. in the Global Economy. June 2009.

increasing linkages and trade with
the Asia Pacific region and the 2010
Winter Olympic Games. 3
Gross domestic product (GDP) is a
standard measure used to gauge
the size of an economy. For British
Columbia, GDP grew from $117.2 bil-
lion (in 2002 dollars) in 1997 to $164.2
billion in 2008.4 For six consecutive
years, from 2002 to 2007 inclusive,
B.C.s economy grew faster than
Canadas.
More recently, B.C. has been hit hard
by the slowdown in the United States
economy since mid-2008. There has
been a considerable contraction,
with many sectors such as forestry,
manufacturing, construction, min-
ing, transportation and retail trade
experiencing weakness. As a result,
the GDP of British Columbia, and
most of the developed world, is in
a period of decline. This is thought
to be a temporary situation that is
part of the normal cyclical nature of
the economy. Growth is expected to
return by 2010.
Putting aside this temporary situation, there are several trends that are shaping
the future of B.C.s economy.
As discussed later in the paper, B.C. has struggled with low labour productivity.
There is now an acknowledgement that a concerted effort to increase the
knowledge and skills of B.C.s labour force will be critical to improving labour
productivity, leading to B.C.s continued economic prosperity. Greater emphasis
on knowledge generation, and corresponding investments in research and
development and capital, will lead to a culture of innovation that will benefit
all British Columbians. Improved labour market information will facilitate labour
mobility, getting people with the right skills and knowledge to the right place.
In addition, B.C. must position itself to attract the best and brightest internation-
ally to fuel growth in existing and emerging high knowledge industries.
These forces for change as outlined below, combined with the demographic
trends described in Section 2, are influencing governments decision to pos-
ition B.C. as a leader in the burgeoning knowledge economy.
3 Business Council of British Columbia. British Columbias Global Linkages: A Snapshot. June 2009.
Conference Board of Canada. Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2009. November 2009.
4 BC Stats. B.C. GDP at Market Prices and Final Domestic Demand 1981-2008.

B. Forces for Change
The Shift from Resources to Knowledge and Services
The vast majority (about 77%) of both employment and economic activity in
British Columbia is in service producing sectors. About 30 years ago, services
made up about two-thirds of economic activity. The proportion of economic
activity in the province relating to services has steadily increased over time
while the proportion of economic activity relating to goods has steadily
declined.
Chart 1: B.C.s GDP byB.C.s GDP by Industry
Industry
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
98
00
02
04
06
08
19
20
20
20
20
20
Goods Services All
Source: BC Stats. B.C. GDP by Industry 1998-2008.
This trend has a number of important implications. While the stereotype per-
sists of a service-sector worker as someone who has little training and limited
skills, service-sector jobs exist at all levels of training and at all points along
the pay scale. The focus must shift to ensure workers in service sectors have
the training and skills to move into higher-level positions and meet growing
demand in sectors such as health care and professional services.
There also tends to be more small businesses and self-employed people in
the service sector. B.C. has a strong entrepreneurial spirit, with 98 percent
of businesses falling in the small business category. From 2002 to 2007, the
number of small businesses in the province soared by 8.8 percent, surpass-
ing the Canadian growth average of 4.8 percent. Much of the expansion in
small businesses across the country has been concentrated in service sector
industries. The construction sector is among those that have helped drive
British Columbias small business growth in recent years, as is the professional,
scientific and technical services sector.5
5 BC Stats. Small Business Profile 2008.

Given that some regions are better positioned to manage this shift from a goods-focussed to a service-based economy,
regional variations across the province are appearing and are discussed below.
Regional and Sectoral Differences

Many sectors and regions across the province are positioning themselves well for high growth when the economy turns
around, particularly those that are set to capitalize on emerging trends, such as trade with Asia. On the other hand,
the unfortunate reality of global as well as national economic pressures is that some other sectors and regions of the
province have been negatively impacted, some permanently.
The table below provides a brief description of the main economic base for the seven economic development regions
in the province. It also provides a comparison of the unemployment rates from 2008 and 2009 (to date). These numbers
clearly indicate that some regions have been much more significantly impacted by the recession than others. For those
regions damaged by economic pressures, especially smaller communities, the need to develop strategies and actions to
address the short- and long-term challenges is imperative.
Table 1: Unemployment Rates by Economic Development Region
Economic Development Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate

Main Economic Base
Region 2009 2008
Forestry and forest based manufacturing, mining and
North Coast and Nechako 10.0% 7.7%
mineral processing, fishing and agriculture
Grain farming, beef ranching, mining (including oil and

Northeast 7.2% 5.0%
gas), forestry
Forestry and forest based manufacturing, ranching and

Cariboo 11.5% 6.4%
mining
Mining, forestry, agriculture, manufacturing, tourism and

Thompson-Okanagan 7.3% 5.4%
retirement industry
Mining, mineral processing, forestry and wood fiber

Kootenay 8.0% 7.0%
processing
Financial, transportation and tourism hub, manufacturing,

Mainland/Southwest 7.4% 4.4%
service, trade, farming, fishing
Public administration (government), forest based

Vancouver Island/Coast 7.5% 4.3%
manufacturing, tourism, farming, fishing
Source: Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey October 2009. 3 Month Moving Average.
The two regions experiencing the highest rate of unemployment (North Coast/Nechako and Cariboo) have been highly
affected by the mountain pine beetle (MPB) infestation. The effects of the MPB epidemic are changing the quality and
flow of wood fibre supply in B.C. and western North America. If the current lumber market was strong, employment
in the forest sector for commodity products would be very high due to the large volume of dead wood available for
harvesting. Instead, soft markets have resulted in fewer mill shifts, some temporary closures and some permanent
closures. As the quality of the MPB-affected fibre continues to decline, and the global economic situation recovers, new
forest products markets, such as bioenergy fuel, are expected to emerge and grow. The nature of employment, capital
investment and skills sets will change accordingly.
In response, communities and regions have been developing strategies that take them from the current situation into
the future. The plans are based on the recognition that the amount and quality of fibre supply is changing differently
across the province, and that diversification is key to developing resilient communities.

BC Stats analyses 63 local areas dependency on specific industries for their income. These dependencies gauge the
reliance of a community or local area on particular industries. While high dependency on one sector can be positive
by providing high employment, if that sector is impacted by a downturn, it may leave the community in a vulnerable
position. Table 2 shows the mean dependency across all 63 local areas for each sector for the past four census years. In
other words, it shows the general reliance across B.C. for income from these 9 broad sectors. These figures show general
stability but do reflect cyclical trends in some of the resource industries.
Please see Appendix 2 for detailed Local Area Economic Dependency Tables and Appendix 3 for employment by indus-
try for the seven economic development regions in B.C.
Table 2: Mean Income Dependencies for 63 Local Areas, as a percentage
Mining, Fishing Other Non-
Agriculture Public Transporta-
Year Forestry incl Oil and Trap- Tourism Other employment
and Food Sector* tion
&Gas ping Income
2006 15 5 1 2 6 25 14 17 15
2001 18 4 1 3 7 25 12 18 12
1996 21 4 2 3 7 24 12 16 10
1991 18 6 1 3 5 19 15 13 20
* Public sector includes health, government, education and policing.
Source: BC Stats. British Columbia Local Area Economic Dependencies:2006
The Government of B.C. envisions growing, diversified rural regions that are able to take advantage of new opportun-
ities. Decades of investments in highways, rail lines, communication and energy infrastructures will create access to rural
B.C. to allow for new investment, new wealth and job creation.
For example, rural B.C. could become a showcase of clean energy production, transportation, research and technology.
B.C. is one of the few jurisdictions in the world with the full array of largely untapped clean energy resources: biomass,
wind, small hydro, geothermal, tidal, wave and solar energy. These resources are widely distributed primarily in rural B.C.
Clean energy is the cornerstone of the new low carbon economy, an economy which has the potential to create jobs
and wealth in rural B.C. Similarly, the traditional industries of British Columbias regions like forestry are expected to
evolve as new opportunities are realized and the value of carbon is recognized.
Global Economic and Labour Market Forces

The recent global economic downturn demonstrates convincingly the impact that external pressures can have on
British Columbia. For example, the decline in the U.S. housing market has lead to a decline in the demand for softwood
lumber. Our export economy, and the ability for exporters to remain competitive in a global market, is also impacted by
the value of the Canadian dollar.
However, the trend in globalization has been occurring for decades. British Columbia exists in a global labour market
where employers compete for talent and employees search for opportunities around the globe, creating pressures
on labour supply. The implications of this include an increased reliance on immigration for talent as well as the need to
ensure British Columbias workforce is adaptive and flexible enough to respond to changing skills needs and emerging
activities. These forces are reflected in the predicted future demand for labour.
Another important factor permeating demand for labour now and in the future is the need for a more skilled workforce.
The reality is most new and replacement job openings are more specialized than before and thus require more post-
secondary education and training. In fact, most new jobs are expected to require a college diploma, trade certificate,
university degree, or higher. Moreover, the competition for this talent is only expected to increase, as national and
international barriers to labour mobility are becoming less of a factor.

The expansion of Asia-Pacific trade is also expected to have significant effects
on British Columbias labour market. By 2020, Asia-Pacific container traffic is
projected to increase by 300% and air passenger traffic is expected to double.
As the closest ports of entry on the west coast of North America, B.C. ports
offer Asian shippers up to one day sail-time savings, and are well positioned
geographically to compete for this trade. This means the potential for signifi-
cant labour demand in the province, particularly in the transportation sector.
Climate Change and the Shift to a Green Economy

Just as global economic forces affect British Columbias local economy, the
province is also not insulated from the effects of climate change or the need to
take action to mitigate it. As a result, the province has taken important steps to
transition its economy from one that relies heavily on fossil fuels to a low-car-
bon economy powered by clean energy. Fortunately, British Columbia is poised
to leverage its strategic and comparative advantages to be globally competi-
tive in this new context. The province has abundant clean energy resources,
a high concentration of research facilities focussed on clean-technology
research, and one of the largest concentrations of sustainable technology and
advanced energy companies in the world.
B.C.s Climate Action Plan has laid the foundation for this transition by setting a
firm target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 33 percent from 2007 levels
by 2020, and by putting in place policies that encourage the development of
B.C.s clean energy resources. The government has also actively supported the
establishment of a carbon credit market in the province, opening up a new
kind of economic activity that will both create jobs and wealth in the province
and protect our environment.

It is anticipated that as the world recovers from the current economic down-
turn, investment in clean energy and low carbon technologies and services
will increase. With this investment will come increased demand for a skilled
labour force that recognizes the opportunities of the green economy and has
the technical skills required to retool our key industries in ways that reflect a
carbon-constrained world. Demand for expertise in energy-efficiency, green
building design and production, resource management and renewable energy
are expected to increase significantly.
Shifting Workplace Attitudes

The final force for change discussed in this paper is the influence of different
generational attitudes toward work. Previous patterns of progressing up
through the ranks of one company for the duration of a career have been
replaced by greater workplace mobility and flexibility. Generation X (born 1965
1979) and Generation Y (born from 1980 onwards) workers tend to change
careers more often than previous generations and have different expectations
of organisations and their leadership. They expect to have greater work/life
balance and greater flexibility in how and when they do their work.
These shifts will have an impact on the workplace as
younger workers, both men and women, may be less
willing to work long hours. So not only will the numbers
of new workers entering the labour market be diminish-
ing, but they will expect to work fewer hours. Employers
will also have to determine what motivates newer
generations to maximize productivity and minimize high
levels of turnover.
Changes in the approach to work may have benefits for
other generations -- older workers transitioning to retire-
ment often look for options to work part-time or where
they are able to take longer periods of leave. Retaining
these experienced workers, even on a part-time basis, is
often desirable for both the employer and employee.
C. Future labour market demand6

The dramatic recent economic downturn reflected in
the U.S. and global markets is having an impact on many
aspects of B.C.s economy. In the short term, the pace
of job creation has slowed and the demand for skilled
labour has lessened in some of the hardest hit sectors.
However, it is important to not lose sight of the looming
demographic shift that will see significant retirements.
While economic cycles may come and go, the
reality is that our population is changing. The scale of
6 All statistics, charts and tables from Ten-Year Employment Outlook for British Columbia. COPS B.C. Unique
Scenario 2007-2017 unless otherwise noted.

replacements required to alleviate large scale retirement pressures will be
unprecedented, with more skilled labour leaving the labour market than those
entering it for the first time in history. If rates of economic growth are to match
those of the past, labour shortages must be addressed. The current short-term
economic slowdown allows for some breathing room to plan and adjust
labour market strategies to ensure B.C. is well positioned when the economy
eventually turns around.
Provincial Analysis
On a provincial level, there are expected to be about 876,000 job openings over
the ten year period from 2007 to 2017. Less than 40 percent (or 329,900) of these
projected job openings are expected to be new jobs generated by economic
and industry growth. Over 60 percent (or 546,500) of projected growth will
be accounted for by replacement demand due to permanent attrition (a
reduction in the workforce as a result of retirements and deaths). The projected
average annual growth rate for all occupations is 1.4 percent.
More than three quarters of the projected total job openings (due to a com-
bination of growth and permanent attrition) are expected to require some
post-secondary education or university education.
How do we know how many job openings there will be?

Estimates for how many job openings are likely to occur within a given period are gener-
ated by using labour market forecasting models. These models use a variety of economic
and demographic indicators to predict how the economy will change over time and what
occupations will be required to sustain that growth. The British Columbia government has
historically used the national Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) for this
purpose, but is currently developing its own forecasting model internally that will provide
more regional information and will integrate both labour supply and demand information.
Sectoral Analysis
At an industry level, employment demand is expected to grow in most major
groups. As mentioned above, the service sector is expected to continue the
trend of generating the vast majority of new jobs in B.C., growing at an annual
growth rate of 1.6 percent. From 2007 to 2017, employment demand in the ser-
vice sector is projected to increase by 300,000 jobs and the goods-producing
sector is projected to add 29,500 new jobs.
The major industry groups that are projected to experience the fastest growth
rate are Health Care and Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific and Technical
Services; and Forestry, Mining, Oil and Gas. Employment demand is expected
to shrink slightly for some industry groups, including Agriculture; and Fishing,
Hunting and Trapping.

Table 3: Projected Employment Demand Growth by Sector and Major Industry Group for British
Columbia, 2007-2017
Average
Major Industry Group New Jobs
Annual Growth Rate
Agriculture -280 -0.1%
Forestry, Mining, Oil and Gas 8,480 1.8%
Fishing, Hunting and Trapping -680 -2.6%
Utilities and Manufacturing 18,590 0.8%
Construction 3,440 0.2%
Total Goods-Producing Sector 29,540 0.6%
Wholesale and Retail Trade 39,690 1.0%
Transportation and Warehousing 23,010 1.7%
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing 19,890 1.3%
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 48,020 2.6%
Management, Administrative and Other Support 13,170 1.3%
Educational Services 17,290 1.1%
Health Care and Social Assistance 69,010 2.6%
Information, Culture and Recreation 14,320 1.2%
Accommodation, Food services and Other Services 46,340 1.6%
Public Administration 9,610 1.0%
Total Service Sector 300,350 1.6%
All Industry Groups 329,890 1.4%

Note: Numbers have been rounded and will not sum to totals
Please see Appendix 4 for more detailed breakdown by industry.
The other important component of future employment demand, in

addition to economic growth, is the need to replace workers who are
leaving the workforce permanently. As presented by Chart 2 below,
replacement demand pressure will not be felt evenly across all industry
groups. Some industry groups are expected to face significant pressure
to replace older workers who are going to retire during the outlook
period. For example, based on the projection, total job openings in the
Agriculture industry will be completely attributed to replacement de-
mand. Other industries with projected lower employment growth, such
as Public Administration, are also expected to require a large number of
new workers to replace permanent attrition.

Chart 2: Attrition Pressure will not be felt evenly by industry groups, British Columbia, 2007-2017
Health Care and Social Assistance
Wholesale and Retail Trade
Accommodation, Food services and Other
Professional, Scientific and Techical Services
Utilities and Manufacturing
Educational Services
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing
Transportation and Warehousing
Construction
Information, Culture and Recreation
Management, Administrative and Other Support
Public Administration
Forestry, Mining, Oil and Gas
Growth Attrition
Agriculture
Fishing, Hunting and Trapping
0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000 175,000

Total Projected Job Openings
Occupational Analysis
New jobs are expected to be created and employment demand
increased in every major occupational group, but the rate of growth
varies significantly.
The three occupational groups that are projected to experience the
highest growth rates are Health, Natural and Applied Sciences, and
Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport. Together these three groups are
expected to add 110,370 new jobs to the labour market over the outlook
period, which will account for approximately one-third of all new pro-
jected jobs in B.C. Some larger occupational groups with lower-than-
average projected growth rates are also expected to see a large number
of increases in demand due to their size. For example, with an average
growth rate of 1.0 percent, the occupation group of Sales and Service is
estimated to generate 61,540 new jobs from 2007 to 2017, more than the
number of new jobs projected for Health occupations, with the highest
projected growth rate.

Table 4: Projected Employment Demand Growth by Occupation Skill Type for British Columbia,
2007-2017
Annual Average Share of total
Major Occupation Skill Type New jobs
Growth new Jobs
Health 3.7% 58,330 17.7%
Natural and Applied Sciences 2.4% 38,980 11.8%
Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport 1.7% 13,060 4.0%
Social Science, Education, Government Service and Religion 1.4% 28,130 8.5%
Occupations Unique to Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities 1.3% 13,910 4.2%
Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators 1.1% 44,110 13.4%
Sales and Service 1.0% 61,540 18.7%
Management 1.0% 23,490 7.1%
Business, Finance and Administration 1.0% 41,300 12.5%
Occupation Unique to Primary Industry 0.9% 7,050 2.1%
All Occupations 1.4% 329,890 100%

Note: Numbers have been rounded and will not sum to totals
Please see Appendix 5 for more detailed breakdown by occupation.
Post-secondary Credentials
Of the expected 876,360 job openings, it is anticipated that an increasing
number will require higher levels of education and skills. Chart 3 below shows
that most of projected job openings (76.2 percent) over the ten-year outlook
period will require some post-secondary or higher education, which includes
college or vocational education, apprenticeship training, and university educa-
tion. Occupations that require a high-school diploma or lower education will
account for less than a quarter (23.8 percent) of total projected job opportun-
ities.7 This has clear implications for post-secondary education in our province.
In Section 2, the current levels of educational attainment of the B.C. workforce
and future supply of students to meet this demand are discussed.
Chart 3: Higher Skills and Education Are Required for Most
Projected Job Openings, British Columbia, 2007-2017
Some Post-Secondary
Education, College or High School Diploma: 13.4%
Trade Certificate: 46.2%
Less Than
High School:
10.4%
University Degree: 30.0%
7 Ten-Year Employment Outlook for British Columbia. COPS B.C. Unique Scenario 2007-2017.

D. Productivity
Labour productivity is a measure of real gross domestic product (GDP) per
hour worked. A more productive workforce can produce a comparable level
of output or GDP with fewer workers, relative to a less productive workforce.
Therefore, one way of partially addressing a decline in the number of available
workers is through improved productivity.
Faced with the prospect of a smaller potential supply of workers, British
Columbia can take steps to increase the productivity of those workers in the
labour force to help maintain levels of output or GDP.
Unfortunately, as recently reported by the Council of Canadian Academies,
Canada has a productivity growth problem. Since 1984, relative labour pro-
ductivity in Canadas business sector has fallen from more than 90% of the U.S.
level to about 76% in 2007. Over the 1985-2006 period, Canadas average labour
productivity growth ranked 15th out of 18 comparator countries in the OECD.8
The situation in British Columbia is even more concerning:
Labour productivity in British Columbia grew on average 0.7
percent a year during the 1987-2006 period while Canada as a
whole experienced average annual growth of labour productivity
of 1.3 percent. In fact, labour productivity growth in British
Columbia was below that of every other province over that period.
With population aging and a soon stagnating labour force, labour
productivity growth will become increasingly synonymous for
GDP and income growth in British Columbia. Indeed, the CSLS
estimates that 72 percent of GDP growth and 156 percent of GDP
per capita growth will come from labour productivity growth in
the 2006-2026 period in British Columbia.9
B.C. performs moderately well on some human capital indicators such as
student skills; net migration; science, math, computer science and engineering
professionals in the workforce; and labour force participation rate. However,
British Columbia remains below the national average in terms of apprentice-
ship, post-secondary and university completions.
British Columbia has relied in the past few years on strong income growth,
particularly from the increase in commodity prices and resurgence of the min-
ing industry, to mask productivity challenges in the balance of the economy.
In particular, the dominance of the service and construction sectors in B.C.s
economy means that it is difficult to mitigate low productivity. Both of these
sectors are labour intensive and, therefore, resistant to productivity gains. In
addition, the B.C. economy is driven by small business, which means that it is
difficult to achieve large scale efficiency increases. Low business investment in
8 Council of Canadian Academies. Innovation and Business Strategy: Why Canada Falls Short. 2009.
9 Andrew Sharpe and Jean-Francois Arsenault, Centre for the Study of Living Standards. Productivity Drivers in
British Columbia: Strategic Areas for Improvement. December 2008.

research and development (R&D)
is also clearly a barrier to increased
productivity in B.C.
The labour force is generally ren-
dered more productive through
capital investment, research and
development, or improving the
quality of labour through educa-
tion and/or skills training. There
is considerable evidence linking
human capital, for which edu-
cational attainment, literacy and
experience are the key proxies,
and economic growth.
Literacy is particularly important.
A study by Statistics Canada
looked at the effect of increasing
general literacy in a population
with respect to productivity. The
study identified a rise of 1 percent
in literacy scores relative to the international average is associated with an
eventual 2.5 percent relative rise in labour productivity and a 1.5 percent rise in
GDP per head.10
The results indicate that, overall, literacy scores have a positive and significant
effect on the rate of economic growth, and on the long run levels of wealth
(as measured by GDP per capita) and of labour productivity. The key economic
policy implication of this result is that, in contrast to most previous findings,
literacy matters for the long run well-being of economically developed nations.
There will be a further discussion of levels of literacy in B.C. in Section Two.
In addition to improving literacy, one of the most significant actions that
government can take to improve labour productivity is to ensure that regional
and occupational imbalances in the labour market are addressed through
close alignment with the post-secondary and training systems. For this reason,
B.C. is investing in better labour market forecasting and analysis and working
to better align regional occupational demands with skills development.
Increasing productivity will be essential for B.C. to remain competitive in the
global economy where we are competing against the productivity of not just
other provinces in Canada, but other countries around the world.
10 Statistics Canada. Literacy scores, human capital and growth across 14 OECD countries. By Serge Coulombe,
Jean- Franois Tremblay and Sylvie Marchand. 2004.

2. Our People
With the understanding gained in Section One of what British Columbias
economy is forecast to look like in the next ten years, Section Two now ex-
plores the future supply of workers to fuel that economy.
A. Population Growth and Demographic Shifts11

While the total population in British Columbia has been steadily increasing
(currently 4.45 million) and is forecast to continue to do so, the composition of
the population is changing dramatically, as Table 5 demonstrates. An increas-
ing population does not necessarily imply an increasing supply of workers.
Table 5
1980 2009f 2020f 2036f
Total Population 2,736,200 4,449,300 5,148,500 6,036,000
Median Age 30.3 40.7 42.5 45.6
Total Dependency
0.594 0.512 0.584 0.693
Ratio
Sex Ratio 100.2 98.4 97.9 96.8
Total Fertility Rate 1,611 1,510 1,453 1,447
Notes:
f = forecast
Median Age = the age at which half the population is younger and half is older
Total Dependency Ratio = Population of ages 0-17 and 65+/ Population of ages 18-64
Sex Ratio = Number of males per 100 females
Total Fertility Rate = Sum of the age-specific birth rates over all ages of child bearing period (15-49)
British Columbias population is aging. The dramatic shift in age structure is

already occurring, and will continue in the coming decades. This unpreced-
ented demographic change is largely driven by two factors the first is the
large number of baby boomers (about one-third of B.C.s total population)
who are beginning to leave the labour force and retire, and will continue to do
so over the next two decades.
The second factor is significantly fewer young people entering the labour
market, a result of declining birth rates over the past few decades. These two
important changes are leading the age distribution of B.C.s population to
become increasingly skewed toward older age cohorts (see Chart 4).
11 All population statistics from BC Stats, British Columbia Population Projections 2009 to 2036, June 2009,
unless otherwise noted.

Chart 4: B.C. Population
B.C. Percent
Population Distribution
Percent by Age
Distribution by Age
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
80
90
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
36
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Ages 0-19 Ages 20-54 Ages 55-64 Ages 65+
F= forecast
Source: BC Stats. B.C. Population Projections 2009-2036.
With the oldest members of the Baby Boom generation now past 60, British
Columbia will face a major challenge in replacing experienced and skilled
workers who are expected to retire over the next two decades. Adding to this
challenge is the reality that fewer numbers of young people are entering the
labour market, primarily due to low birth rates over the past three decades.
The labour force grew by 2.6 percent in 2007 but, by 2011, annual growth in the
labour force is expected to decelerate sharply to just 1.0 percent.
Chart 5: LabourLabour
Force Growth, BritishBritish
Force Growth, Columbia
Columbia
3.5
3
2.5
% growth
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Source: B.C. Labour Market Scenario Model. Preliminary results June 2009.
Two other consequences of an aging population are demonstrated in the Total

Dependency Ratio and Sex Ratio. The dependency ratio shows that the propor-
tion of the population traditionally outside the labour market will rise substan-
tially over the next 20 years. Fewer working age people will be responsible for a
greater share of child care, elder care, pension contributions, etc. In addition, the
Sex Ratio indicates the proportion of females who have lower labour market
participation rates is increasing due to their longer life expectancy. While the
higher proportion of females becomes most noticeable in older age groups,

there will be a slight shift in the proportion of females in the prime working
years as well. This could impact the number of available workers.
Regional Population Growth

While the overall B.C. population is aging, there is not a uniform distribution
across the province. Certain regions have a higher proportion of young people
and will be growing more quickly, as shown in the chart below. This variation
reinforces the notion that regions have unique opportunities and challenges,
and strategies must be adapted to those circumstances.
Chart 6: Population Growth by Economic Development Region
20082018
Northeast
North Coast & Nechako

2013-2018 2008-2013
Cariboo
Kootenay
Thompson-Okanagan
Mainland/Southwest
Vancouver Island/Coast
British Columbia
-0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%

Source: BC Stats. B.C. Population Projections 2009-2036.
Occupational Age Distribution

Similar to the regional variation in
population age distribution, not all
occupations in B.C. are going to be
facing the same demographic chal-
lenges. As can be expected, some
occupations have an older average
age and are going to have to address
the challenges of mass retirements
sooner than others. This phenomenon
is directly tied to the discussion in
Section One about the number of job
openings created due to attrition in
various occupations, and the pressures
to fill those openings.

Chart 7: Average Age of Labour Force, Selected Occupations, 2008,
British Columbia
Average Age of Labour Force, Selected Occupations, 2008, British Columbia
Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related

occupations
Mine service workers and operators in oil and gas drilling
Trades helpers, construction labourers and related
occupations
Labourers in primary industry
Intermediate sales and service occupations
Skilled sales and service occupations

Paraprofessional occupations in law, social services,
education and religion
All Occupations
Professional occupations in art and culture
Professional occupations in health
Skilled occupations in primary industry
Senior management occupations
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Source: B.C. Labour Market Scenario Model. Preliminary results June 2009.
B. Labour Market Participation

Along with examining population growth and distribution trends, it is import-
ant to look at the number and percentage of people of working age (15-64
years) who are participating in the labour market either by working or looking
for work.
The labour force participation rates in British Columbia over the past 30 years
have had similar patterns as those of Canada and most other advanced econ-
omies.12 Successive generations of women joining the labour force had higher
participation rates than preceding ones. These generational effects lessened
since the early 1990s and female participation profiles have become more
stable in recent years. Male participation rates on the other hand have gener-
ally moved lower as each new generation has participated less in the labour
force. This has shifted the overall age profiles for males lower over time.13
Labour market participation rates for the population have been gradually
increasing (from 64.7 percent in 1980 to 66.6 percent in 2008) and are expected
to continue. However, the aging of the population and the change in the sex
ratio toward more females will affect the pace of change over the next 10 years.
As workers move into the older age cohorts, their labour force participation
generally declines as a result of health problems and early retirement. This
happens even before people reach the age of 65. In 2008, the participation rate
for British Columbians aged 55 to 64 years was 60.5 percent, considerably lower
than the 84.7 percent rate for those aged 45 to 54 years.
12 All Labour Force Participation statistics from Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey.
13 BC Stats. Labour Force Participation Projections. 2007.

Given that participation rates decline as the population ages, the movement
of the baby boomers into the 55-and-over cohort has serious implications for
the participation rate. The decline will become dramatic as the boomers begin
to hit retirement age (65 years and over), starting around 2012. It is anticipated
that there will be a marked decrease in the number of available workers.
Traditionally, female labour market participation has been lower than male
labour market participation. However, since the 1960s, the gap has been nar-
rowing and is now approximately 10 percentage points apart (female participa-
tion at 61.5 percent; male at 71.9 percent). The gap between male and female
participation rates in the 2024 age cohort has fallen from 15.6 percentage
points in 1980 to 1.8 percentage points in 2008. There has also been a consider-
able rise in female participation rates in the labour force among older cohorts.
In 1980, the gap between male and female participation rates in the 4564 age
cohort was 40.7 percentage pointsby 2008 this gap had narrowed to just
12.5 percentage points. So, while females will outnumber males in the general
population, rising levels of female labour force participation should mitigate
impacts to the labour supply.
Chart 8:Female
Female and MaleLabour
and Male LabourMarket
MarketParticipation
Participationby by Age,
Age, in
1980 and 2008 in 1980 and 2008
100
90
Participation Rate
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65
Age
Female 1980 Female 2008 Male 1980 Male 2008
Source: Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey 2008.
The labour market participation rate is one important variable to consider as it

presents the pool of potential labour for the economy. Another key indicator is
the unemployment rate.
The labour market in B.C. has undergone major change over the last few years.
In 2002, the unemployment rate in B.C. was 8.5 percent. Five years later, the
unemployment rate was cut in half, averaging just 4.2 percent by 2007. With
the current economic downturn, unemployment rates are again rising. In
British Columbia, the unemployment rate was 8.3 percent in October.14
14 Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey October 2009.

It should be noted that it is not unusual for unemployment rates to fluctuate.
Employment Definitions Cyclical unemployment (what we are currently experiencing) is the result of
Employment rate: The employment rate a general decline in production and economic activity. Other types of un-
(formerly the employment/population ratio) is employment include frictional unemployment and structural unemployment.
the number of persons employed expressed as
a percentage of the population 15 years of age
Despite recent increases, British Columbia still keeps its unemployment rate
and over. below the national average. However, as discussed in Section One, there
are significant regional discrepancies in the unemployment rate and rate of
Unemployment rate: The unemploy-
ment rate is the number of unemployed persons
increase across the province, which indicates that there may be some struc-
expressed as a percentage of the labour force. tural unemployment in addition to cyclical unemployment. This is of interest,
as structural unemployment would require strategies different from those
Labour force participation rate:
The participation rate is the number of labour
required to address cyclical or frictional unemployment. Demand-side stimulus
force participants (civilian, non-institutionalized is not sufficient to address structural unemployment; often significant retrain-
persons 15 and over who, during the reference ing of workers is required.
week, were employed or unemployed) expressed
as a percentage of the population 15 years of age Labour Market Participation by Under-represented Groups
and over. Hiring a diverse labour force can be an important source of competitive
Labour productivity: is a measure of advantage, enabling sustained and even enhanced performance, an expanded
real gross domestic product per hour worked. knowledge base, more innovation, increased productivity, improved capacity
Productivity gains occur when the production of to penetrate new markets, and greater success in recruiting and retaining
goods and services grows faster than the volume top talent. Employers who broaden their recruitment strategies will have a
of work dedicated to their production. competitive advantage over those who do not. These are the employers who
Cyclical unemployment is understand that traditional recruitment strategies typically bypass a valuable
unemployment that rises during economic down- source of labour: the hidden market of talent comprised of Aboriginal per-
turns and falls when the economy improves. sons, immigrants, youth, mature workers, and persons with disabilities.
Frictional unemployment: involves
By increasing the participation rate and employment rate of various under-
people in the midst of transiting between jobs,
represented groups, B.C. will also be able to mitigate some of the effects of an
searching for new ones; it is compatible with full
employment. Seasonal unemployment is one of
aging population. Caution needs to be exercised, however, as even if participa-
the components of frictional unemployment, a tion rates rise substantially for these groups, it may not be sufficient to offset
result of the normal operation of an economy. the demographics trends and meet all our future labour market needs.
Other elements are contributed by the need to
search for suitable jobs from time to time even Aboriginal Persons
when work is readily available. Thus, even when In British Columbia, as of 2006, there were 196,000 Aboriginal people, 4.8
the economy operates at full capacity, there is percent of the total population of British Columbia. Of these, 40,310 were living
always a positive level of frictional unemploy- in Vancouver and 10,905 were living in Victoria in 2006. Over a quarter of the
ment, although there may be offsetting job
Aboriginal population (55,250) in B.C. is between the ages of 0 and 14, and
vacancies.
almost 60% are under the age of 35. The total Aboriginal population grew by
Structural unemployment is the 15.3 percent since the 2001 Census and is likely to continue to grow at a faster
result of a mismatching between the skills, rate than the provincial population as a whole. The Aboriginal population is the
location and other characteristics of job seekers
fastest-growing population in Canada.15
and available jobs. Other causes of structural
unemployment are technological changes, Aboriginals are being underutilized in B.C.s labour market. In 2008, among
shifting product demands or a decline in a the population aged 15 to 64 in B.C., a labour market participation gap of
regional industry. 8.1 percentage points existed between non-Aboriginals and Aboriginal
Source: Statistics Canada
peoples living off-reserve.16 Aboriginal peoples had an unemployment rate
15 Statistics Canada. Census 2006.

16 Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey 2008.

of 15.0 percent in 2006, significantly higher than the 5.6 percent unemploy-
ment rate for non-Aboriginals.17 Unemployment is an even larger issue for
Aboriginals living on-reserve, but unfortunately limited data is available for
the on-reserve population.
The gap between the employment rates of Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal
people decreases at higher levels of educational attainment. In 2006, the
unemployment rate for the Aboriginal population with a university certificate
or degree was 8.6 percent (compared to 4.5 percent for the non-Aboriginal
population). Improving the education levels of Aboriginal individuals clearly
makes a difference.
Immigrants
Labour force participation rates for immigrants tend to be lower than rates for
those born in Canada. However, Labour Force Survey data suggest that partici-
pation rates among core working-age (25-54) immigrants in B.C. move toward
the provincial average as they become more established. In 2008, the labour
force participation rate for very recent immigrants (those in Canada 5 years or
less) in B.C. was 73.7 percent, and it was slightly higher for recent immigrants (in
Canada 5 to 10 years), at 78.4 percent. The labour force participation rate of 84.2
percent for established immigrants (in Canada 10 or more years) was higher
than for more recent immigrants, but slightly below that of the Canadian-born
(87.6 percent).18
BCForce
Chart 9: B.C. Labour Labour Force
Participation Participation Rates
Rates
100
90
80
Percentage
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Very Recent Established
Recent Immigrants Born in Canada
Immigrants Immigrants
2001 Census 69.6 75.8 84.7 86.1
2006 70.9 77.1 84.6 86.7
2007 72 78.8 85.2 86.9
2008 73.7 78.4 84.2 87.6
Source: Statistics Canada. Census and Labour Force Survey.
17 Statistics Canada. Census 2006.


Much of the difference in labour market participation rates
between immigrants and the Canadian-born can be attrib-
uted to very different participation rates between men and
women. While there is a gap in the labour force participation
rates of men and women in the labour force as a whole,
this gap is wider for immigrants, especially very recent im-
migrants. For example, in 2008, very recent immigrant women
in B.C. had a labour force participation rate of 63.4 percent
compared to 86.5 percent for very recent immigrant men.
By comparison, the participation rate was 83.2 percent for
Canadian-born women, and 91.9 percent for Canadian-born
men.
Generally, immigrants have fared better economically
the longer they have been in Canada. Data from Census
2001 and Labour Force Survey 2006-08 suggests that the
unemployment rate among immigrants in B.C. decreases as
they become more established in the province. In 2008, the
unemployment rate for very recent immigrants in B.C. (those
in Canada 5 years or less) was 7.4 percent. The rate was 6.2
percent for recent immigrants (in Canada 5 to 10 years) and
3.6 percent for established immigrants (in Canada 10 or more
years). This compares to 3.6 percent for the Canadian-born
population in B.C.
Highly-educated immigrants often have difficulty finding employment. In
2008, university educated immigrants had an unemployment rate of 4.7
percent, which was higher than the rate of 3.5 percent among immigrants with
only a high school diploma. This is in contrast to the Canadian-born popula-
tion, where those with university degrees have a significantly lower unemploy-
ment rate (2.3%) than high school graduates (3.9%).19
Between 1991 and 2006, the proportion of established immigrants with a
university degree in jobs with low educational requirements increased while
the proportion remained stable for Canadian born. The same trend is also
evident among recent immigrants despite the fact that recent immigrants
are more educated than ever.20 In 2008, 56 percent of immigrants to B.C. aged
25-54 had a university degree compared to 21 percent for the Canadian-born
equivalents in B.C.21
This form of underemployment of immigrants, due to lack of recognition of
their pre-arrival skills, education and experience, reduces their earnings, which
has an effect on their well-being and their contribution to Canadas economy.
Such persistent gaps relative to native-born Canadians, especially if they
extend to established immigrants, may also undermine Canadas ability to
attract skilled immigrants.22
20 Statistics Canada. Perspectives on labour and income. December 2008 Vol. 9, No. 12
21 Citizenship and Immigration Canada. Landed Immigrant Database; and Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey.

Youth
There were approximately 590,000 youth (ages 15-24) in B.C. in 2008. Youth
have historically had a lower participation rate than workers aged 25 and over.
This is not surprising as many youth are still completing their schooling and
are not yet in the labour market. However, youth also experience much higher
unemployment rates, indicating there are youth who would like to work but
who can not find employment.
In 2008, the unemployment rate for youth was 8.4 percent, more than
double the unemployment rate of 3.8 percent for workers aged 25 and over.23
Approximately 59 percent of youth are students, almost half of whom were
working as well as attending school (mostly part-time work).24 Among non-
students, 83 percent were working, the vast majority in full-time employment.
Since 2001, youth employment rates have been on an upward trend, increasing
by over 10 percentage points to 62.6 percent in 2007. Despite improved labour
market conditions, youth with multiple employment barriers (low levels of
education, and limited work experience and essential skills) are still experien-
cing difficulty securing and retaining work, indicated by the approximately
42,000 youth (7 percent) who are neither attending school nor working.
There is a considerable gap in labour force participation and unemployment
rates between those without a high school diploma or certificate and those
that have completed high school, but the variation in participation for those
with differing levels of post-secondary educational achievement are not as
distinct.25
Mature Workers
British Columbias median age has now passed 40 years old. Population growth
in B.C. between 2001 and 2006 was concentrated in the 45 and older age
groups and, relative to other provinces, B.C.s population cohort 65 and over is
among the largest. The number of mature workers aged 45 and over in B.C.s
labour force grew by nearly 50 percent between 1996 and 2006. Mature work-
ers currently account for almost 39 percent of the provinces labour force.
As can be expected, the participation rate for workers 55 and older is lower
than for the whole population 34.1 percent compared to 80.0 percent for
workers 25-64. As noted above, the decline in participation begins well before
the traditional retirement date of 65. In 2008, the participation rate for British
Columbians aged 55 to 64 years was 60.5 percent, considerably lower than the
84.7 percent rate for those aged 45 to 54 years.26
What is unknown at this point is the impact the recession may have on the
labour force participation of mature workers. It is speculated that some work-
ers may not be able to retire as soon as they had previously planned due to
decreases in their pensions and savings. This may result in higher labour force
25 BC Stats. Labour Market Outcomes of Young British Columbians Evidence from Census 2006. June 2009.

participation rates for older workers as they wait for their
investments to recover.
Persons with Disabilities
There are currently over 350,000 working-age persons
with disabilities in British Columbia. They have an em-
ployment rate about 20 percentage points lower than the
rest of the population 56.5 percent versus 74.3 percent.
The labour market participation rate of persons with
disabilities is 61.5 percent, compared to 78.5 percent in the
balance of the population.27
In 2006, the unemployment rate of disabled persons was
8.9 percent, higher than for the non-disabled population
at 5.7 percent. The unemployment rate fell between 2001
and 2006 both overall and for persons with disabilities. More importantly, the
gap narrowed between those with and without disabilities by approximately
half. The decline among persons with disabilities was not due to these persons
dropping out of the labour force, as the proportion not in the labour force also
declined from 41.2 percent to 38.5 percent..28
By continuing these trends of higher labour force participation and lower
unemployment, persons with disabilities could augment B.C.s future labour
supply.
C. Other Labour Supply Indicators

In addition to labour force participation rates and unemployment rates,
three other indicators of the state of labour supply include the number
of Employment Insurance Claims, the number of people collecting B.C.
Employment and Assistance, and average wage rates.
Employment Insurance Claims

Reflecting the current economic downturn, the number of people receiving
regular Employment Insurance benefits in British Columbia in August 2009
has increased to 88,670. Since August 2008, the number has increased by
107.8 percent. In British Columbia, 13 of the 25 large centres had twice as
many beneficiaries compared with a year ago. In Vancouver, the number of
beneficiaries increased from 17,200 in August 2008 to 39,000 in August 2009. At
the same time, the number of recipients increased by 2,300 to 4,500 in Victoria.
Over the year-long period, the largest employment losses in the province were
in construction, manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, as well as
accommodation and food services.29
27 Statistics Canada. Participation and Activity Limitation Survey 2006

28 BC Stats. Labour Market Outcomes of Persons with Disabilities in British Columbia. 2009.
29 Statistics Canada. The Daily, October 27, 2009.

B.C. Employment and Assistance Cases
There are two main categories of income assistance in British Columbia
Temporary Assistance and Disability Assistance. As seen in Chart10, the number
of Temporary Assistance cases had dropped to a low of 37,000 in 2006 and
2007 and is now rising due to the current recession, in a similar manner as the
increase to Employment Insurance claims. In contrast, the number of Disability
Assistance cases has been steadily increasing over the past 10 years, and since
2004, represents the larger portion of income assistance cases. With the aging
population, it is expected the number of Disability Assistance cases will con-
tinue to increase.
ChartBC
10:Employment and
B.C. Employment Assistance
ad Assistance Cases
Cases
140000
120000 Temporary Assistance
100000 Disability Assistance
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Mar-09
Source: Ministry of Housing and Social Development
Wage Rates
Another indicator of labour supply is wage rates. A shortage of workers often
results in wage inflation, and a surplus of workers in wage deflation. The chart
below shows how, in B.C., the rate of increase grew from 2005 to 2008 during
times of low unemployment and strong labour demand.
ChartAnnual Percentage
11: Annual Increase
Percentage Increase in in Weekly
Weekly Wage
Wage Rate Rate
5
4.5
4
3.5
Percentage
3
2.5
2
1.5
Canada
1
0.5 B.C.
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Ja 08
20 -Oct
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
09
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
n
Source: Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey

Among the chief concerns of many employers is the prospect of wage inflation
that springs from the anticipated future shortage of workers. Competitive
pressures to pay premium wages are especially acute for small-to- medium
size enterprises that already experience difficulty competing with larger firms
to attract and retain employees.
D. In-Migration to B.C.
The growth of Canadas population and labour force rely heavily on immigration
British Columbia is no exception. However, population growth is expected
to slow in B.C. despite the fact that British Columbia will continue to attract
newcomers, both internally from other parts of Canada and internationally.
By 2028, it is estimated that deaths will outnumber births in B.C., meaning any
population growth will be entirely from interprovincial migration and inter-
national immigration. 30
Chart 12: Migration to B.C.Migration to B.C.
70
60
50
People (in thousands)
40
30
20
10
-10 Net inter provincial Net international
-20
00
02
04
06
08
f
10
12
14
16
18
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
F= forecast
Source: BC Stats Population Projections 2009-2036
Interprovincial Migration
Net interprovincial migration to B.C. was negative during the latter part of the
1990s through 2002. Since that time the robust job market has lured migrants
from other areas of the country and by 2007, net interprovincial migration
reached 15,000 - its highest level since 1996. However, shortages of skilled
labour (due to demographic pressures relating to the aging of the population
and the decline in the birth rate) are expected to become significantly height-
ened in many parts of Canada in the future. This will increase the attractiveness
of other job markets and draw some individuals from B.C. to jobs in other
regions. The result will be a downward trend in net interprovincial migration
30 BC Stats. Population Projections 2009-2036. Table 2.

to B.C., levelling out to new interprovincial migration of 10,000 -15,000 people
annually.31 Main streams of immigration
BC Stats has looked at the age distribution of interprovincial migrants and 1. Economic Class:
determined it generally reflects the aging provincial population as a whole.32 a. Federal Skilled Worker Class are
The percentage of migrants aged 45-64 and 65+ has increased, while the per- selected for their education, skills,
centage aged 0-17 has fallen. The percentage aged 18-44 (prime working years) work experience.
has remained relatively stable. So while migrants are not likely to significantly
b. Canadian Experience Class are
change the population composition of the province, B.C. can expect that
migrants will not be made up exclusively of youth or working age individuals. Temporary Foreign Workers and
International Students selected
International Immigration for work experience in Canada.
Immigration has always been an important component of British Columbias International Students must also
development, growth and identity. More than one quarter (27.5 percent) of have completed a qualifying post
B.C.s residents were born outside Canada, and the province continues to secondary program.
welcome approximately 40,000 new immigrants every year. There are more c. Business Class are selected based
than 600,000 immigrants in British Columbias labour force. That is nearly 30 on ability to become economically
percent of the total provincial labour force, or almost one in three of B.C.s 2.4 established in three categories
million workers in 2008. The majority of immigrants in the labour force are of Investors, Entrepreneurs, and
established immigrants, having lived in Canada for more than 10 years while Self-Employed People.
nearly one-third arrived more recently (within the last 10 years).
d. Provincial Nominee Class are
In 2008, British Columbia welcomed the third largest number of immigrants of selected by BC to meet specific
all provinces and territories, with 43,535 new permanent residents. This was an
labour market needs.
11.8 percent increase over 2007 arrivals and the second highest number in the
past 10 years (only 2005 saw a greater number of new immigrants, 44,770). e. Live-in Caregiver Class are selected
from temporary foreign workers
In 2008, 65% of immigrants to B.C. were in the Economic Class, which was
under the Live-in Caregiver Program
much higher than 45% in 1991. Since the mid-1990s, Family Class immigration
has remained at around 30% of total immigrant inflow. Family Class immigra- who have worked for two years in
tion to B.C. was generally higher in the 1980s and early-1990s. Over the past 20 Canada.
years, Refugees have comprised, on average, 6% of immigration to B.C., and 2. Family Class are selected based
Other immigrants have made up about 3%. on their sponsorship by a family
The Economic Class is made up of 4 main components: the Federal Skilled member who is an adult Canadian or
Worker Class, Business Class Immigrants, the Provincial Nominee Class, and the permanent resident.
Live-in Caregiver Class. The Federal Skilled Worker Class is the largest compon- 3. Refugees are selected abroad for
ent of Economic immigration to B.C., but has been declining in recent years. protection and includes their spouses
For instance in 2004, the Federal Skilled Worker Class accounted for 46% of and dependants who may be abroad
total immigration to B.C. (17,093 arrivals), and declined to 37% in 2008 (15,910 or in Canada.
arrivals).
4. Other Class includes refugee
While the Federal Skilled Worker Class declined in size, there was growth in claimants (claim made in Canada),
the other components of the Economic Class. In recent years, B.C. has received humanitarian and compassionate
an increasing number of immigrants through its Provincial Nominee Program
cases, and others based on public
(PNP). The B.C. PNP offers accelerated immigration for qualified skilled work-
policy considerations.
ers and experienced entrepreneurs who wish to settle in B.C. and become
permanent residents of Canada. PNP immigrants help fill key labour needs and
31 BC Stats. Population Projections 2009 2036.
32 BC Stats. B.C.s Inter-Provincial Migrants: A Changing Age Distribution. June 2008.

shortages and contribute to the
provinces economic development.
In just five years the number of PNP
immigrants to B.C. increased more
than 5-fold, from 598 in 2004 to 3,611
in 2008.
Business Class immigration also
increased over this period, from
4,162 to 6,202. This was due entirely
to growth in the Investor compon-
ent of the Business Class (the
Entrepreneur and Self-Employed
components both declined).
The final component of the
Economic Class, the Live-in
Caregiver Class, also grew between
2004 and 2008. During this time,
the number of people becoming
permanent residents of Canada and intending to reside in B.C. more than
doubled, from 1,083 in 2004 to 2,548 in 2008. The Live-in Caregiver Class allows
individuals who worked as Temporary Foreign Workers in the Live-in Caregiver
Program for 24 months over a 3-year period to become permanent residents
along with their families.
While net interprovincial migration is expected to slow during the forecast
period, net international immigration will accelerate. Canada as a whole will
have to compete with other countries to attract immigrants; however, there
remains an assumption that Canada will be a destination of choice.
The projected upward trend in international immigration will serve to boost
population in B.C. Net international immigration is expected to continue to
climb, reaching 45,000 net immigrants by 2024. While the province has some
control over the level and type of immigration to B.C., most factors are under
the control of Citizenship and Immigration Canada.
Temporary Residents
While, not officially considered as immigrants, temporary residents are an
important source of population and labour force growth for B.C. In 2008, there
were 126,250 temporary residents in B.C., which included 58,307 temporary
foreign workers (TFWs), and 50,221 international students.
TFWs are employed in work that spans the spectrum of skill levels, occupa-
tions and industries. Over one third of TFWs come through reciprocal Youth
Exchange or Working Holiday programs. Almost a third of TFWs are employed
in skilled, technical, professional or management jobs, and a similar number
work in intermediate and basic skilled jobs.

Increasingly, new immigrants have had prior temporary residence status, as illustrated below, and transition immedi-
ately from temporary to permanent status. In 2008, 28% of all immigrants who arrived in B.C. had been a temporary
resident in the previousBC:
year, while
Numberin 1999 of
onlyImmigrants
17% had. Transitioning
From
B.C.: Number Temporary
of Immigrants to Permanent
Transitioning Residence,
from Temporary 1999-2008
to Permanent Residence, 1999-2008
14,000
12,000
10,000
Total Transitions
8,000
From Foreign Workers
6,000
From Other
4,000
From Foreign Students
2,000
From Humanitarian
Population
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
The newly implemented Canadian Experience Class is likely to increase the number of temporary residents transitioning
from temporary to permanent status in the future.
Labour Mobility and Foreign Qualification Recognition

The free flow of skilled workers across provincial and national boundaries has become increasingly relevant in the age of
free-trade markets and globalization. To remain economically competitive with an efficient labour market, B.C. has been
working with provinces, the federal government, and other countries to establish full labour mobility. Agreements have
recently been signed both at the provincial level and between Canada and the European Union.
In 2007, British Columbia and Alberta enacted the Trade, Investment and Labour Mobility Agreement (TILMA) to improve
labour mobility between the two provinces. In 2009, B.C. passed legislation to dismantle barriers to full labour mobil-
ity across Canada to all trades and professions. The Labour Mobility Act will allow a person certified in any Canadian
jurisdiction to be recognized and able to practise their profession in any other Canadian jurisdiction. This act is similar to
legislation being enacted or revised in other provinces.
Similarly, foreign qualification recognition is an important step in the newcomer settlement process. It verifies that
education, skills, and work experience obtained outside Canada are in line with the standards established for Canadian
workers, and facilitates the full utilization of immigrants skills.
Between 1991 and 2006, the proportion of established immigrants with a university degree in jobs with low educational
requirements increased, while the proportion remained stable for Canadian born. The same trend is also evident among
recent immigrants despite the fact that recent immigrants are more educated than ever.33 The reduced value of work
due to the inability of immigrants to have their foreign qualifications recognized has a significant economic impact to
Canada. It is estimated that this impact is in the range of $2 billion annually.34
B.C. is working in conjunction with the federal government and a range of stakeholders (employers, service agencies,
regulatory bodies, etc.) to increase access to employment that recognizes immigrants skills, training and experience.
34 Reitz, Jeffrey G. 2005. Tapping Immigrants Skills: New Directions for Canadian Immigration Policy in the Knowledge Economy. IRPP Choices 11, no. 1.

Over 1,900 programs are offered at B.C.s E. Educational Attainment of B.C. Labour Force
25 public post-secondary institutions: According to the Labour Force Survey conducted by Statistics Canada, in 2008,
24 percent of the B.C. labour force (aged 15 and over) had a university degree;
hh 6 traditional universities
41 percent had some post-secondary education (including those with college
hh 5 regional universities and/or trade certificates); 23 percent had a high-school diploma; and the
hh 11 colleges remaining 12 percent had less than high-school education.
hh 3 institutes As Chart 13 demonstrates, the proportion of B.C.s labour force that has some
post-secondary education has been steadily increasing. For a more detailed
Numerous private post-secondary
regional breakdown of post-secondary attainment, see Appendix 6.
institutions operate in B.C. as well.
Chart 13: Highest Level
Highest of Education
Level Attainment,
of Educational as Percentage of
Attainment,
Labour Force as Percentage of Labour Force
100 %
90% University degree
80% Post-secondary
certificate or
70% diploma
60%
Some
50% post-secondary
40% High school
30% graduate
20% Some high
school
10%
0-8years
0%
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
Source: Labour Force Survey 2008
About 40,000 high-school students graduate annually in B.C., of which 65

percent register in a B.C. public post-secondary program within two years.35 In
any given year, there are approximately 400,000 students attending post-sec-
ondary institutions in B.C. (both part time and full time). From those students,
there are approximately:
28,000 certificates, diplomas, degrees awarded annually from colleges
and institutes;
15,000 undergraduate degrees awarded from universities; and
4,500 graduate degrees awarded from universities.
The B.C. Ministry of Advanced Education and Labour Market Development
is working in partnership with publicly-funded colleges and universities to
ensure B.C.s post-secondary system provides the required number and quality
of graduates to meet employers demands for highly skilled workers and that
institutions are able to respond to B.C. communities needs for education and
skills training. Initiatives include:
35 Ministry of Advanced Education and Labour Market Development. Student Transitions Project. Fast Facts 2008.

Developing policy and programs to increase access, retention and
participation of Aboriginal learners, as well as developing an Adult
Opportunities Action Plan to enhance adult literacy in B.C.
Conducting research to identify performance measures to better under-
stand student needs and learning outcomes.
Delivering financial assistance programs to increase access to post-
secondary education and training.
Maintaining a quality post-secondary system that is relevant, affordable,
and accessible through:
yy expanding opportunities for student access and choice;
yy establishing policy and legislative frameworks for private career training
institutions and education quality assurance;
yy providing funding for post-secondary institutions;
yy enhancing mechanisms for post-secondary institution accountability in
delivery of programs; and
yy targeting funding to address areas of high skill demand (e.g. health care,
skilled trades).
The Ministry recognizes the need to support a post-secondary system that is
not only able to respond to labour market needs, but both anticipates future
labour markets and creates new economic and job opportunities through
research and innovation. In addition, the Ministry recognizes that higher
education levels are linked to broader social benefits such as better health and
knowledge spillovers to other employees.36 Institutions are therefore sup-
ported in their efforts to produce graduates who:
adapt to the changing nature of work and apply their knowledge and
skills in different contexts;
possess business and entrepreneurial skills;
understand how to commercialize research discoveries as industrial
products and innovations;
have positive attitudes toward lifelong learning, a propensity that is highly
valued by employers; and,
want to make a difference to their community and their country and pos-
sess the necessary thinking and communication skills to make a positive
contribution.
36 Association of Universities and Colleges of Canada. Momentum: the 2008 Report on University Research
and Knowledge Mobilization. P118.

Apprenticeships
The skilled trades are frequently identified as experiencing labour supply shortages. During B.C.s construction boom of
the mid-2000s, these shortages were particularly acute and post-recession, are expected to re-emerge. In recognition
of this, B.C. has taken steps to dramatically increase the number of registered apprentices and credentials awarded as
shown in Table 6. As noted above in the discussion on labour productivity, B.C. needs to continue efforts to increase the
percentage of trainees who complete their apprenticeship.
Table 6: Apprenticeships in British Columbia
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
Target Target Target
Total Registered Training
14,676 20,050 33,389 38,018 43,922 44,076 47,000 47,500 48,000
Participants
Certificates of Qualification
2,329 2,378 2,899 3,551 5,246 6,038 6,100 6,100 6,200
Issued
Source: Industry Training Authority Revised Service Plan 2009/10 - 2011/12
International Education
B.C.s educational system is among the most respected in the world and attracts more than 130,000 international
students annually. 25,000 are registered in B.C.s public post-secondary institutions, 14,000 in K-12 schools, and roughly
100,000 are enrolled in programs offered by private degree granting, career training institutions and ESL schools.
Continued growth of international education is fundamental to B.C.s future. International students provide many
cultural and social benefits, and inject about $1.4 billion of direct economic benefit into the economy each year.37 With
increasing efforts to promote work and immigration programs that encourage international students to remain in B.C.
and become permanent residents, they will also help address increasing labour market shortages. These programs
include the Off-Campus Work Permit Program, Post-Graduate Work Permit Program, Provincial Nominee Program and
the Canadian Experience Class track for immigration.
Table 7: International Education in British Columbia
Provincial Nom-
Public Post- Post Graduation
Off-Campus Work Canadian inee Program
Secondary Work Permit
Permit Program Experience Class (International
institutions Program
Student Category)
International 25,000 3,362 1,983 29 223
Students (see note 1) (see note 2) (see note 2) (see note 4) (see notes 2 and 3)
Notes:
1. In the 2007/08 academic year, public institutions had 25,000 international students.
2. 2007 Counts of international students in the OCWPP, PGWP and PNP.
3. In 2007, international students only made up 9% of total PNP nominations (2,522). The majority of the PNP total reflects the transition of temporary foreign workers to
permanent residents.
4. First quarter 2009. The Canadian Experience Class was only launched in September 2008. CEC was a new avenue of immigration for certain temporary foreign workers
and foreign student graduates with professional, managerial and skilled work experience.
37 Roslyn Kunin and Associates Inc. Economic Impact of International Education in Canada Final Report. July 2009.

Literacy
On a more fundamental level, while B.C.s literacy rates are above the Canadian average, a million British Columbians
between 16 and 65 have low levels of literacy, defined as demonstrating skills below Level 3 in the International Adult
Literacy and Skill Survey. This is roughly 35 percent of British Columbians in that age range. About 44 percent of people
in this age group have low numeracy levels that prevent them from getting and keeping good jobs.
Upwards of 40 percent of adults living in B.C. will continue to lack the level of literacy needed to take full advantage of
the opportunities presented by the emerging global knowledge economy.
In B.C., as elsewhere in Canada, groups with disproportionately low literacy levels include those with less than high
school education, immigrants whose mother tongue is neither English or French, and Aboriginal peoples.
Based on the 2003 International Adult Literacy and Skill Survey (IALSS), 70 percent of seniors (over 65 years) reported
literacy levels below level 3, and 65 percent of immigrants had low literacy, compared to 40 percent for Canadian born.
These low levels of English-language literacy in immigrants are despite the fact that immigrants are a key source of
educated labour.
In 2008, over half of adult immigrants (aged 25 and over) arrived with at least a university degree. In comparison, only
21 percent of Canadian-born residents of B.C. in 2008 had completed a university degree. Almost one quarter of immi-
grants (23 percent or 6,476) arrived in 2008 with other forms of post-secondary education or training, including college
diploma or trades training. For Canadian-born the figure is slightly higher at 26 percent.
Despite this high level of education, generally newcomers English language proficiency levels are low and contribute
to their underemployment in the labour market. An estimated 436,000 of the one million people with low English
language skills in British Columbia are immigrants.
As discussed in Section One, there is a strong productivity rationale to improve literacy levels in the population and
British Columbia is focussing attention and resources to address this gap. Future improvements to literacy levels will be
critical for the well-being of many individuals living in B.C. and for the overall performance of the B.C. economy.

3. Our Challenge: The Right
Knowledge and Skills in the Right
Place at The Right Time
In the midst of an economic downturn, it is difficult to shift focus from the
immediate job losses and rising unemployment to look ahead to a time of
potential widespread skills and labour shortages. However, despite the cur-
rent situation, the demographic imperative hitting British Columbia will not
change.
An aging population and declining birth rate are leading to a smaller pool in
the traditional labour market. Many public policy initiatives focus on increasing
the labour market participation rates of under-represented groups, such as
Aboriginal persons, persons with disabilities and youth. While this is important
on a number of levels and increased participation by these groups will alleviate
some pressure, the numbers of people in those groups are likely insufficient to
meet all of B.C.s future needs.
British Columbia will need to rely on immigrants to meet the future needs of
our labour market. Challenges will centre on maintaining B.C.s position as a
destination of choice, foreign qualification recognition, and successful and
timely integration into the labour market and community. Correspondingly,
immigrants represent an opportunity to bring new skills and innovative ideas
to the labour market.
The B.C. labour market forecasting model is developing estimates of the gap
between the number of anticipated job openings and new entrants to the
labour market (those leaving school from the 15-34 age range). Preliminary
estimates suggest that there may be 335,000 to 375,000 unfilled positions for
the 10 year period of 2009-2018. These positions will need to be filled with
in-migration (either interprovincial or international immigration)or with
increased labour market participation (such as increased participation of
under-represented groups).
Another major challenge is the shifting nature of growth occupations away
from resources toward services industries. As noted above, British Columbia
experiences significant regional variation in the labour market. Certain regions
are more heavily dependent upon individual resource sectors and are suffering
in the downturn. One of the challenges and opportunities is to foster strong
regional economies that build upon the existing strengths in those commun-
ities. Strategies must be adapted to particular regional circumstances.
We are also seeing a shift to higher skilled positions. The majority of new jobs
in the future will require post-secondary credentials. The percentage of the
labour force with some post-secondary education has been steadily increas-
ing a trend that will need to continue in order to maximize employment
and productivity. It will also be vital to ensure that all British Columbians have

adequate levels of literacy and
essential skills to be able to adjust
to constantly changing skills needs
and emerging occupations.
A trend that represents a real
opportunity lies in the increased
numbers of small businesses and
self-employed in B.C. This province
has historically had a high propor-
tion of small businesses and a
strong entrepreneurial spirit. Small
business remains the primary
source of private sector job creation
in British Columbia, reflecting an
important and ongoing trend
towards economic diversification
within the provincial economy.
Small business is also a vital source
of innovation. With approximately
96 percent of high technology
businesses in British Columbia
falling into the small business
category, small business is a key
instrument of job creation and
economic growth in the province..38
As noted at the beginning of this paper, B.C. is uniquely positioned in Canada
in two other respects. Our geographic position and population ties to the Asia
Pacific region are expected to result in increased trade, which will particularly
benefit our transportation sector. Secondly, British Columbia is aggressively
taking steps to transition to a low-carbon economy that will lead to new
investment, technology and labour market opportunities. New green jobs
will develop in areas such as clean technology, green building design and
production, resource management and renewable energy. To ensure B.C.s
labour market has the skills to support this growth, the province is committed
to working with the post-secondary institutions to align the education system
with future and emerging priorities.
Finally, this paper demonstrates that B.C.s labour market is going through, and
will continue to go through, significant adjustments in the next 10 to 15 years.
There is a need for timely and accurate labour market information to assist
students, employers, the unemployed, immigrants and industry with making
informed choices. In times of such volatility and complexity, this represents
both a challenge and an opportunity to ensure B.C. has the right people with
the right knowledge and skills in the right place at the right time.
38 Western Economic Diversification/BC Stats. Small Business Profile 2008.

Appendices
Appendix 1: Key B.C. Labour Market Facts for 2008
63.5% employment rate
66.6% participation rate
4.6% unemployment rate
1510 live births/1000 women (total fertility rate)
15.7% of population is aged 0-14
43,500 new permanent residents in 2008 (18% of Canadian total)
1,048,000 people employed by small businesses (56% of private sector employment)
2.5% increase in number of SMEs from 2006 to 2007 (National rate: 2.4%)
22% of provincial employment in good producing sectors
78% of provincial employment in service producing sectors
Largest employers, by Industry Group: Trade (Retail and Wholesale), Health and Social Assistance and Construction

Appendix 2: Local Area Economic Dependencies
Percent Income Dependencies (After-Tax Incomes, 2006)
Mining Other
Agric & High Public Film Trans
Forest & Min Fishing Tourism Const Other non-emp
Food Tech Sector Prod Payments
Proc income
VANCOUVER ISLAND/COAST
1 Gulf Islands 2 0 1 3 7 3 18 10 1 5 17 33
2 Victoria 1 1 0 1 6 4 39 6 0 6 13 23
3 Sooke-Port Renfrew 4 1 1 0 8 2 35 12 0 5 13 19
4 Duncan 14 1 1 2 4 1 27 9 0 4 18 20
5 Lake Cowichan 23 0 0 1 4 0 20 11 0 3 22 15
6 Ladysmith 14 0 1 1 4 0 26 7 0 7 18 22
7 Nanaimo 8 1 1 1 3 1 28 8 0 8 19 21
8 Parksville-Qualicum 5 1 1 1 7 2 17 10 0 5 22 30
9 Alberni 21 0 3 2 9 0 22 5 0 3 18 16
10 Courtenay-Comox 9 2 2 3 6 0 30 7 0 3 18 21
11 Campbell River 23 5 2 2 7 0 21 6 0 3 17 14
12 Bute Inlet 5 0 12 2 10 0 20 7 0 5 16 22
13 Powell River 22 3 2 1 3 0 22 6 0 2 19 19
14 Alert Bay 13 0 9 1 5 4 32 4 0 2 19 11
15 Port Hardy 32 2 7 2 5 1 22 4 0 2 14 9
16 Central Coast 4 0 8 1 7 0 50 3 0 2 16 8
MAINLAND/SOUTHWEST (Excluding GVRD)
17 Hope-Fraser Canyon 7 2 0 2 7 0 30 6 0 6 22 18
18 Chilliwack 5 1 0 6 3 1 28 11 0 9 18 16
19 Kent-Harrison 5 0 1 7 9 0 26 9 0 6 21 17
20 Matsqui-Abbottsford 6 1 0 11 1 1 25 11 0 13 17 13
21 Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge 6 2 0 3 2 3 29 11 1 18 13 12
22 Mission 9 2 0 4 2 1 28 14 1 14 16 10
23 Sunshine Coast 14 2 1 1 3 2 20 10 1 4 18 22
24 Squamish 5 1 0 1 27 2 20 15 1 6 8 14
25 Lillooet 21 3 0 2 7 0 27 7 0 4 15 14
THOMPSON-OKANAGAN
26 Princeton 26 5 0 2 3 0 17 6 0 4 22 15
27 Oliver-Osoyoos 4 2 0 10 6 0 16 7 0 5 27 24
28 Penticton 5 2 0 3 6 0 24 9 0 7 22 22
29 Ashcroft 11 10 0 8 6 0 23 7 0 6 18 12
30 Merritt 23 7 0 3 6 0 22 9 0 1 18 12
31 Kamloops 9 6 0 1 6 1 27 8 0 9 16 16
32 North Thompson 30 2 0 3 7 0 16 6 0 2 20 13
33 Peachland 5 3 0 3 5 2 19 14 0 9 18 21
34 Kelowna 4 2 0 3 7 2 23 12 0 9 17 20
35 Vernon 9 2 0 2 5 1 22 10 0 9 20 20
36 Spallumcheen 11 2 0 7 3 0 18 11 0 9 21 18
37 Salmon Arm 11 3 0 2 4 1 18 11 0 8 20 20
38 Golden 26 2 0 1 14 0 16 12 0 7 14 9
39 Revelstoke 18 2 0 1 9 0 21 9 0 14 14 12

Percent Income Dependencies (After-Tax Incomes, 2006)
Mining Other
Agric & High Public Film Trans
Forest & Min Fishing Tourism Const Other non-emp
Food Tech Sector Prod Payments
Proc income
KOOTENAY
40 Fernie 6 44 0 0 8 0 13 6 0 2 11 9
41 Cranbrook-Kimberley 12 6 0 1 7 0 26 9 0 7 17 16
42 Invermere 13 12 0 2 16 0 16 13 0 3 11 13
43 Castlegar-Arrow Lakes 23 4 0 1 5 1 22 9 0 4 17 14
44 Nelson 9 2 0 1 7 4 28 10 0 5 18 17
45 Creston 8 5 0 7 4 0 19 6 0 1 26 24
46 Grand Forks-Greenwood 23 2 0 4 3 0 17 7 0 4 24 18
47 Trail-Rossland 4 19 0 0 4 1 24 6 0 6 17 18
CARIBOO
48 Williams Lake 27 5 0 2 4 0 22 7 0 3 16 12
49 Quesnel 45 2 0 2 3 0 18 4 0 2 15 10
50 Prince George 28 2 0 1 4 1 28 7 0 7 12 10
51 McBride-Valemount 33 0 0 1 11 0 21 5 0 3 16 11
NORTH COAST
52 Queen Charlotte Island 14 0 7 1 11 1 31 4 0 2 18 12
53 Prince Rupert 5 1 16 1 8 0 32 3 0 8 18 9
54 Kitimat-Terrace 14 22 1 0 4 0 26 5 0 3 14 10
55 Hazelton 18 3 1 1 2 0 40 2 0 2 25 5
56 Stewart 3 8 4 0 7 0 52 7 0 3 12 3
NECHAKO
57 Smithers-Houston 31 9 0 2 5 0 23 5 0 2 13 9
58 Burns Lake 37 3 0 3 3 0 26 3 0 2 14 9
59 Vanderhoof 42 8 0 3 3 0 20 3 0 1 12 7
60 Stikine 4 11 1 0 7 1 48 15 0 4 6 2
NORTHEAST
61 Dawson Creek 12 20 0 3 5 0 21 10 0 8 12 8
62 Fort St. John 6 37 0 3 5 0 14 11 0 8 8 7
63 Fort Nelson 27 23 0 0 8 0 17 4 0 11 5 4
Source: BC Stats. British Columbia Local Area Economic Dependencies: 2006. Released March 2009.

Appendix 3: Employment, by Development Region and Sector,
2008 (in thousands)
Mainland Nechako/ Thompson Vancouver
Cariboo Kootenay Northeast
Soutwest North Coast Okanagan Island/ Coast
Total Goods-Producing Sector 23.4 22.1 283.8 13.5 15.0 72.0 71.7
Agriculture - 2.0 2.4 16.9 7.0 3.7

Goods-Producing
Forestry, fishing, mining, oil and gas 5.0 6.9 6.7 3.5 7.7 7.8 7.8
Utilities 9.7 1.9
Construction 5.4 8.0 128.7 2.6 4.3 32.4 39.4
Manufacturing 10.2 4.6 121.7 6.9 23.0 19.7
Total Services-Producing Sector 59.7 49.4 1,134.5 30.7 23.0 193.0 322.5
Trade 13.3 12.7 212.8 7.0 4.9 41.6 62.4
Transportation & warehousing 4.3 3.4 84.1 3.2 2.1 11.5 19.4
Finance, insurance, real estate & leasing 3.2 2.3 108.0 1.5 11.9 19.0
Services-Producing
Professional, scientific & technical services 3.2 3.5 123.4 1.8 12.0 28.7
Business, building & other support services 3.1 1.6 66.6 11.1 16.6
Educational services 5.1 5.0 107.1 2.5 2.4 16.6 22.9
Health care & social assistance 11.4 6.1 131.7 4.7 3.3 35.1 53.4
Information, culture & recreation 2.5 3.0 82.5 12.1 15.7
Accommodation & food services 6.2 7.2 101.7 3.5 2.3 22.1 35.1
Other services 3.6 2.8 63.6 2.1 10.0 17.9
Public administration 3.7 1.8 53.0 2.9 9.0 31.5

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey from 2009 B.C. Check-up. Institute of Chartered Accountants of British Columbia

Appendix 4: Employment Outlook for Industry Groups, B.C. 2007-2017
2007 New jobs Attritions Total Average Annual
Major Industry Group
employment to 2017 to 2017 Openings Growth
1 Agriculture 36,240 -280 7,530 7,250 -0.1%
2 Forestry and Logging with support activities 24,340 280 5,440 5,720 0.1%
3 Fishing, Hunting and Trapping 2,910 -680 470 -210 -2.6%
4 Oil and Gas Extraction 1,880 730 520 1,250 3.3%
5 Mining (except Oil and Gas) 10,030 4,190 3,000 7,190 3.5%
6 Support Activities for Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction 8,100 3,280 2,140 5,420 3.5%
7 Utilities 10,310 4,000 3,330 7,330 3.3%
8 Construction 196,860 3,440 41,040 44,480 0.2%
9 Food and Beverage Products 28,320 5,660 7,030 12,690 1.8%
10 Wood Product Manufacturing 44,700 -110 9,560 9,450 0.0%
11 Paper Manufacturing 15,230 -1,180 3,260 2,080 -0.8%
12 Printing and Related Support Activities 6,140 540 1,660 2,200 0.8%
13 Rubber, Plastics and Chemicals 14,800 250 3,290 3,540 0.2%
14 Manufactured Mineral Products 15,060 1,080 3,600 4,680 0.7%
15 Metal Fabrication and Machinery (excluding electrical) 24,840 3,980 5,640 9,620 1.5%
16 Computer, Electronic and Electrical Products 9,950 2,670 2,810 5,480 2.4%
17 Motor Vehicle, Body, Trailer & Parts Manufacturing 4,760 390 1,220 1,610 0.8%
18 Other Transportation Equipment Manufacturing 7,830 -340 1,440 1,100 -0.4%
19 Other Manufacturing 33,440 1,650 8,540 10,190 0.5%
20 Wholesale Trade 81,970 25,770 22,420 48,190 2.8%
21 Retail Trade 283,060 13,920 52,670 66,590 0.5%
22 Transportation and Warehousing 125,650 23,010 33,420 56,430 1.7%
23 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing 144,950 19,890 37,980 57,870 1.3%
24 Professional Business Services 81,510 35,280 23,860 59,140 3.7%
25 Computer System Design Services 33,000 12,430 4,880 17,310 3.2%
26 Other Professional Services 51,780 320 11,070 11,390 0.1%
27 Management, Administrative and Other Support 98,500 13,170 22,640 35,810 1.3%
28 Educational Services 156,150 17,290 45,370 62,660 1.1%
29 Health Care and Social Assistance 239,670 69,010 80,750 149,760 2.6%
30 Information, Culture and Recreation 117,820 14,320 24,450 38,770 1.2%
31 Accommodation and Food services 172,660 26,370 25,620 51,990 1.4%
32 Other Services 87,990 19,980 23,680 43,660 2.1%
33 Public Administration 95,890 9,610 26,120 35,730 1.0%
All Industries 2,266,340 329,890 546,470 876,360 1.4%

Note: Numbers have been rounded and will not add to totals
Data source: COPS B.C. Unique Scenario

Appendix 5: Employment Outlook for Major Occupational Groups,
B.C. 2007-2017
2007 New jobs Attrition Average
Major Occupational Group Total Openings
employment to 2017 to 2017 Growth Rate
Management 221,250 23,490 68,650 92,140 1.0%
Legislators and Senior Management 21,940 2,970 11,150 14,120 1.3%
Middle and Other Management 199,310 20,520 57,500 78,020 1.0%
Business, Finance and Administration 398,910 41,300 108,980 150,280 1.0%
Professional Occupations in Business and Finance 63,500 9,500 15,990 25,490 1.4%
Skilled Administrative and Business Occupations 125,880 13,040 41,740 54,780 1.0%
Clerical Occupations 209,530 18,760 51,250 70,010 0.9%
Natural and Applied Sciences 143,660 38,970 30,220 69,190 2.4%
Professional Occupations in Natural and Applied Sciences 76,200 27,140 15,010 42,150 3.1%
Technical Occupations Related to Natural and Applied Sciences 67,460 11,830 15,210 27,040 1.6%
Health 133,150 58,330 46,210 104,540 3.7%
Professional Occupations in Health 62,540 26,850 23,040 49,890 3.6%
Technical and Skilled Occupations in Health 35,890 14,790 9,780 24,570 3.5%
Assisting Occupations in Support of Health Services 34,720 16,690 13,390 30,080 4.0%
Social Science, Education, Government Service and Religion 181,840 28,130 49,970 78,100 1.4%
Professional Occupations in Social Sciences, Education, Government
133,210 19,800 41,680 61,480 1.4%
Services and Religion
Paraprofessional Occupations in Law, Social Services, Education and
48,630 8,330 8,290 16,620 1.6%
Religion
Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport 72,870 13,060 14,230 27,290 1.7%
Professional Occupations in Art and Culture 32,640 4,220 8,200 12,420 1.2%
Technical and Skilled Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport 40,230 8,840 6,030 14,870 2.0%
Sales and Service 566,380 61,540 98,990 160,530 1.0%
Skilled Sales and Service Occupations 145,230 24,390 28,680 53,070 1.6%
Intermediate Sales and Service Occupations 230,950 25,570 37,260 62,830 1.1%
Elemental Sales and Service Occupations 190,200 11,580 33,050 44,630 0.6%
Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators 371,640 44,110 86,760 130,870 1.1%
Trades and Skilled Transport and Equipment Operators 222,060 21,740 52,700 74,440 0.9%
Intermediate Occupations in Transport, Equipment Operation,
124,200 19,430 31,040 50,470 1.5%
Installation and Maintenance
Trades Helpers, Construction Labourers 25,380 2,940 3,020 5,960 1.1%
Occupation Unique to Primary Industry 77,280 7,050 16,460 23,510 0.9%
Skilled Occupations in Primary Industry 34,800 3,710 10,850 14,560 1.0%
Intermediate Occupations in Primary Industry 16,720 290 2,280 2,570 0.2%
Labourers in Primary Industry 25,760 3,050 3,330 6,380 1.1%
Occupation Unique to Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities 99,380 13,911 26,030 39,940 1.3%
Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities Supervisors and Skilled
17,350 2,450 6,370 8,820 1.3%
Operators
Processing and Manufacturing Machine Operators and Assemblers 57,290 8,360 14,740 23,100 1.4%
Labourers in Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities 24,740 3,100 4,920 8,020 1.2%
All Occupations 2,266,340 329,890 546,470 876,360 1.4%
Note: Numbers have been rounded and will not add to totals
Data source: COPS B.C. Unique Scenario

Appendix 6: Percent of Labour Force Age 25-54 with a Post-Secondary
Certificate/Diploma or Higher 2003 to 2008
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Cariboo 50.7 50.7 48.0 48.0 52.3 56.1
Kootenay 55.7 55.9 60.5 52.8 53.3 53.1
Mainland Soutwest 61.0 61.9 63.0 64.2 64.4 65.3
Nechako/ Northwest Coast 53.7 49.1 45.7 51.3 44.8 48.0
Northeast 54.1 48.0 44.2 48.2 55.0 53.6
Thompson Okanagan 54.5 53.7 53.6 54.6 58.3 57.5
Vancouver Island/Coast 57.1 58.0 57.6 59.3 59.8 62.2
British Columbia 58.9 59.3 59.8 61.0 61.7 62.7

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey from 2009 B.C. Check-up. Institute of Chartered Accountants of British Columbia

Appendix 7: Economic Development Regions
Northeast
North Coast &

Nechako
Thompson &
Okanagan
Cariboo
Vancouver
Island & Coast
Kootenay
Lower Mainland &

Southwest
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Challenges and

British Columbias Labour Market Future 1

British Columbias Labour Market Future 3

1 BC Stats. B.C. GDP by Industry 1998-2008: NAICS Aggregations.

4 Challenges and Opportunities

British Columbias Labour Market Future 5

5 BC Stats. Small Business Profile 2008.

6 Challenges and Opportunities

Regional and Sectoral Differences

Economic Development Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate

Grain farming, beef ranching, mining (including oil and

Forestry and forest based manufacturing, ranching and

Mining, forestry, agriculture, manufacturing, tourism and

Mining, mineral processing, forestry and wood fiber

Financial, transportation and tourism hub, manufacturing,

Public administration (government), forest based

British Columbias Labour Market Future 7

Global Economic and Labour Market Forces

8 Challenges and Opportunities

Climate Change and the Shift to a Green Economy

British Columbias Labour Market Future 9

Shifting Workplace Attitudes

C. Future labour market demand6

10 Challenges and Opportunities

How do we know how many job openings there will be?

British Columbias Labour Market Future 11

Forestry, Mining, Oil and Gas 8,480 1.8%

Fishing, Hunting and Trapping -680 -2.6%

Utilities and Manufacturing 18,590 0.8%

Construction 3,440 0.2%

Total Goods-Producing Sector 29,540 0.6%

Wholesale and Retail Trade 39,690 1.0%

Transportation and Warehousing 23,010 1.7%

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing 19,890 1.3%

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 48,020 2.6%

Management, Administrative and Other Support 13,170 1.3%

Educational Services 17,290 1.1%

Health Care and Social Assistance 69,010 2.6%

Information, Culture and Recreation 14,320 1.2%

Accommodation, Food services and Other Services 46,340 1.6%

Public Administration 9,610 1.0%

Total Service Sector 300,350 1.6%

All Industry Groups 329,890 1.4%

The other important component of future employment demand, in

12 Challenges and Opportunities

0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000 175,000

British Columbias Labour Market Future 13

Health 3.7% 58,330 17.7%

Natural and Applied Sciences 2.4% 38,980 11.8%

Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport 1.7% 13,060 4.0%

Occupations Unique to Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities 1.3% 13,910 4.2%

Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators 1.1% 44,110 13.4%

Sales and Service 1.0% 61,540 18.7%

Management 1.0% 23,490 7.1%

Business, Finance and Administration 1.0% 41,300 12.5%

Occupation Unique to Primary Industry 0.9% 7,050 2.1%

All Occupations 1.4% 329,890 100%

University Degree: 30.0%

14 Challenges and Opportunities

British Columbias Labour Market Future 15

16 Challenges and Opportunities

A. Population Growth and Demographic Shifts11

British Columbias population is aging. The dramatic shift in age structure is