Course 4 Climate Change2014

Geological Engineering Department
Faculty of Engineering
Environmental Geology
Geology & Climate Change
Doni Prakasa Eka Putra

Dept. of Geological Engineering
Gadjah Mada University
1
What is climate?
Climate refers to time and space patterns

of precipitation, temperature, and wind.
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2
Why is studying climate change a

scientific challenge?
Climate changes naturally on a range of

timescales, from decadal (10s of years),
centennial (100s of years), millennial (1000s of
years), and longer (glacial cycles, e.g. Ice Ages).
Climate changes naturally on a range of spatial

scales, from local and regional to global.
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3
Why should we be interested in

climate change?
Climate determines the type and location of human-managed
ecosystems, such as agricultural farmlands.
Climate affects the weathering of rock, the type of soil that forms,
and the rate of soil formation.
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4
Why should we be interested in

climate change?
Climate helps to determine the quantity and quality of water
available for human use.
Climate determines the severity of droughts, storms, and
floods.
5
Climate change facts
Climate is the long-term atmospheric conditions, weather

varies constantly
Changes in climate are natural: e.g. after the last ice age
(11,500 years ago) global temperatures were 5C lower than
now
BUT we are now experiencing temperature rises at

unprecedented speed, scientists believe that human activities
are responsible
Global Warming is defined as the increase of the

average temperature on Earth. As the Earth gets
hotter, disasters like hurricanes, droughts and floods
become more frequent.
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Climate change facts

Europes temperatures have risen by 1C since 1850
Another 1.2C could mean irreversible, large-scale and potentially

catastrophic environmental change
Worlds glaciers have lost two-thirds of their mass since 1850 and
the trend is accelerating
Polar ice is melting and sea levels are rising at double the rate of 50
years ago
7
What is the greenhouse The gas responsible for the most warming is carbon
dioxide, also called CO2.
effect? Nitrous oxide from fertilizers, gases used for
refrigeration and industrial processes, and the loss of
forests that would otherwise store CO2.
Global warming is when the earth heats
Nitrous oxide is 300 times more powerful than CO2.
up (the temperature rises). It happens when
Chlorofluorocarbons (which have been banned in much
greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, water of the world because they also degrade the ozone layer).
vapor, nitrous oxide, and methane) trap heat Since 1990, yearly emissions have gone up by about 6
and light from the sun in the earths billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent
atmosphere, which increases the worldwide, more than a 20% increase.
temperature.
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CO2 and energy in the atmosphere
The Earths surface absorbs

solar radiation, and
reradiates it as heat.
CO2 and other greenhouse
gases (GHG) reduce the rate
at which this heat can escape
into space.
The more GHG, the higher
the global temperature.
This role of CO2 and other GHG has been understood for over
a century.
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10
Greenhouse Gases
burning coal, oil and gas for

carbon dioxide (CO2)
energy, transport and heat
nitrous oxide (N2O) waste disposal sites,

agriculture and cattle
methane (CH4)
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
used in fridges, air-
perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
conditioning and even shoes
sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)
11
How do we study climate?
Air bubbles in ice cores retain atmospheric gases

present when the ice was formed.
Annual tree rings

not only indicate
CO2 measured continuously at
tree age, the ring
Mauna Loa Observatory since
width indicates
1958 has provided strong
growth spurts due
evidence for atmospheric
to warmer
change.
temperature.
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12
Why do times of glaciation occur episodically on Earth?

Climate results from a balance between the rate at which
energy arrives at and leaves Earth
Systematic
changes in the
distance and
orientation of
Earth relative
to the Sun are
thought to
account for
glacial cycles.
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13
Earths natural warming-cooling cycle
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Long-term variation of temperature and of CO2 in air

bubbles preserved in the Vostok ice core
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15
At what rate have global surface temperatures

changed over the last 30 years?
AB: 0.6 C/yr B
C/30 years= 0.02 C
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16
At what rate did global temperatures change during the warming

period following major ice ages?
Interglacials B
Ice Ages
A
AB: 12 C/9700 years = 0.0013 C/yr
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EVIDENCE
OF GLOBAL TEMPERATURE INCREASES
SINCE 1900:
(A) Recorded temperature changes

(B) The observed rise in sea level of 4-8
inches
(C) The shrinkage of mountain glaciers
(D) Reduction of northern hemisphere
snow cover
(E) Increasing sub-surface ground
temperatures
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Sea level rise
19
Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal

Source: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/satellite-observations-in-arctic-sea-ice-1979-and-2003
20
What is Global Warming? Faculty of Engineering
Global Warming is defined as the increase of the average temperature on

Earth. As the Earth gets hotter, disasters like hurricanes, droughts and
floods become more frequent. 21
What Are Some Natural Causes

of Climate Change?
(A) Variations in the Earth's Orbit (tilt or shape) - cycles from

20,000 to 100,000 yrs.
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(B) Changes in the amount of energy coming from the Sun
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C) Volcanic emissions
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(D) Collisions with comets

or meteorites
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Glacial cycles were very large naturally-occurring changes in global climate that occurred over
hundreds of thousands of years. Why are we worried about rapid climate change now?
CO2 in the Vostok core (blue), other

ice cores (yellow, green), and
measurements since 1958 (red).
With the doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere to
about 700 ppm temperature increase of
about 2 to 4 degree Celsius
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28
Have Humans Caused

Some of the Recent
Climate Changes?
ANSWER: POSSIBLY.
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CO2 conc. In atmosphere vs number of humans population
30
SOME HUMAN ACTIVITIES MIGHT BE:
(A) Burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gases)
31
(B) Global Deforestation
32
When did CO2 and

other GHG begin
to increase?
Detailed analysis
of ice cores and
measurements
shows:
CO2 , CH4, and N2O changed slowly after the end of the last
Ice Age, but began to increase rapidly about 200 years ago.
33
How much does each GHG contribute

to climate change?
Energy retention in
the atmosphere CO2
depends on the
abundance and
effectiveness of the
GHG.
The diagram shows
how much each gas CH4
contributed to
warming from 1750 to N2O
2005 (termed
radiative forcing).
34
CO2 and other GHG vary naturally. Why are

humans thought to affect GHG, and thus climate?
Human activities
including land use
change (agriculture,
deforestation), fossil
fuel use (coal, oil,
natural gas), and
cement production
are known to release
CO2 and other GHG.
35
Why do we think
that CO2 released
by human
activities is
causing the
increase in the
atmosphere?
Seasonal cycles in
CO2 result from
photosynthesis and
respiration.
Such short-term flows

of carbon cannot explain
the upward trend
The trend has to result from carbon that has been stored for
long periods of time, such as in fossil fuels and soils.
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36
Is all of the human-caused

CO2 in the atmosphere?
Only about 50% of the increased CO2 stays in the
atmosphere.
The rest is absorbed by the oceans and other sinks.
37
Is all of the human-caused

CO2 in the atmosphere?
CO2 dissolved in the oceans is forming extra carbonic acid
which is causing a decline in pH and other ecosystem problems.
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Could factors other than human-caused

GHG emissions be changing earths
climate?
Other factors that can influence climate

include:
Variations in the Suns output of energy.
Dust and gases from volcanic eruptions.
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39
How can scientists decide which factors are

actually responsible for climate change?
Scientists model both human and natural factors to
determine which best explain the observed climate changes.
Both natural and human factors are needed to explain the

climate change that has already happened.
Human factors are particularly important in explaining the
rapid temperature increase in the last three decades. 40
Do the models prove that humans

are causing climate change?
Models cannot prove that humans are involved; however,

they show that the changes observed so far are consistent
with human causes.
Models do not account for some complexities of climate, such

as the feedback effects of water vapor and cloud formation.
Scientists consider the models sufficient to say that it is very

likely (>90% probability) that the climate change observed in
the last 50 years is not a result of natural effects alone.
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Methods to reduce effects
Reduce greenhouse gases

Reduce the usage of electrical appliances which
emits green house gases.
Follow RRR - Reduce, Reuse, Recycle.
Plant trees.
Use green power: wind, water and Sun energy
42
Methods to reduce effects
Climate Change (Slow and Ultimately Stabilized)

a reduction of deforestation,
a substantial increase in afforestation,
some relatively easy-to-do reductions in methane
emissions,
an aggressive increase in energy saving and
conservation measures,
increased implementation of renewable sources
of energy supply.
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Course 4 Climate Change2014

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Geological Engineering Department

Doni Prakasa Eka Putra

Climate refers to time and space patterns

Why is studying climate change a

Climate changes naturally on a range of

Climate changes naturally on a range of spatial

Why should we be interested in

Why should we be interested in

Climate change facts

Climate is the long-term atmospheric conditions, weather

BUT we are now experiencing temperature rises at

Global Warming is defined as the increase of the

Climate change facts

Another 1.2C could mean irreversible, large-scale and potentially

CO2 and energy in the atmosphere

The Earths surface absorbs

burning coal, oil and gas for

nitrous oxide (N2O) waste disposal sites,

Air bubbles in ice cores retain atmospheric gases

Annual tree rings

Why do times of glaciation occur episodically on Earth?

Earths natural warming-cooling cycle

Long-term variation of temperature and of CO2 in air

At what rate have global surface temperatures

AB: 0.6 C/yr B

C/30 years= 0.02 C

At what rate did global temperatures change during the warming

(A) Recorded temperature changes

Sea level rise

Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal

Global Warming is defined as the increase of the average temperature on

What Are Some Natural Causes

(A) Variations in the Earth's Orbit (tilt or shape) - cycles from

(B) Changes in the amount of energy coming from the Sun

(D) Collisions with comets

CO2 in the Vostok core (blue), other

Have Humans Caused

CO2 conc. In atmosphere vs number of humans population

SOME HUMAN ACTIVITIES MIGHT BE:

(A) Burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gases)

(B) Global Deforestation

When did CO2 and

How much does each GHG contribute

CO2 and other GHG vary naturally. Why are

Such short-term flows

Is all of the human-caused

Is all of the human-caused

Could factors other than human-caused

Other factors that can influence climate

How can scientists decide which factors are

Both natural and human factors are needed to explain the

Do the models prove that humans

Models cannot prove that humans are involved; however,

Models do not account for some complexities of climate, such

Scientists consider the models sufficient to say that it is very

Methods to reduce effects

Reduce greenhouse gases

Methods to reduce effects

Climate Change (Slow and Ultimately Stabilized)

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