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Project Management

Manfred Roux
rouxsifi@gmail.com

1
0. Introduction

2
Organizational Topics

Who am I?
Some background & contact details
Schedule of lectures
07/29 - 09:00 18:00
07/30 - 09:00 18:00
07/30 - 09:00 18:00
08/01 - 09:00 - 12:00
Exam
Multiple choice
Date TBD What are your preferences?

Project Management I - 3
Useful References

Organizations
GPM Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Projektmanagement http://www.gpm-ipma.de
PMI Project Management Institute http://www.pmi.org/

Books & Articles


J. R. Meredith, S. J. Mantel, Jr., Project Management A Managerial Approach, Wiley &
Sons
K. Schwalbe, Information Technology Project Management, Thomson Course Technology
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide), Project
Management Institute, http://www.PMI.org/Marketplace
R. Mulcahy, PMP Exam Prep

Other Resources
PM Software Links: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_project_management_software
PM Software Directory : http://www.infogoal.com/pmc/pmcswr.htm
Good general PM reference site: http://www.maxwideman.com/index.htm
MBTI Personality Types: http://www.myersbriggs.org/my-mbti-personality-type/mbti-basics/

Project Management I - 4
1. Why Project Management

The Case for Project Management

5
Project Management History

Project management has been around almost as


long as man kind
Early Projects : The Egyptian Pyramids or the
Chinese Great Wall
The Manhattan Project in the 1940 with a project
manager & a technical director
About 40 year ago PM started to become a
profession mainly driven by NASA
For the last 10 15 years it is a profession by
itself and people can become certified PMs

Project Management I - 6
What is Project Management?

Project management is the application of


knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques to project
activities in order to meet project requirements
(PMI*, Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide), 2000, p. 6)

Project Management I - 7
Projects that Failed : Example Denver
Airport
Building of new airport began 1989, planned opening 1993
Planned cost 1.7 billion USD

In 1991 BAE receives order to build automatic baggage handling


system
Objective: Speed, cost reduction, fail-proof, handling up to 1000
pieces/min
Planned cost : 192 million USD

Result
Test run 1994 failed
Opening of airport delayed until 02/1995
Adaptation of system created cost overrun of 1 million USD/day!
Damage of 500 million USD, an additional 71 million USD for manual
replacement system
BAE went broke

Project Management I - 8
Example Denver Airport : What Went
Wrong?
Tight schedule
Complexity of system
New technology expected to perform faultlessly
Lack of planning
Changing requirements
Software not adaptable to changing rapidly
requirements

Project Management I - 9
Denver Airport in the News

June 10, 2005 (Computerworld) -- After more than a


decade of trying to make Denver International Airport's
troubled $230 million computerized baggage-handling
system work as designed, United Air Lines Inc. is giving
up on the failed project.
"It's never worked up to its potential," said United
spokesman Jeff Green. "We've spent enormous amounts
of money over the last decade" to try to get it working,
but the only parts of the system that operate properly
are for luggage heading out of Denver on United and for
some baggage transfers between flights, he said. The
system has never been able to process luggage from
flights arriving at the airport.

Project Management I - 10
Lessons Learned
Ref.: http://www.computerworld.com/managementtopics/management/project/story/0,10801,102405,00.html

"The first lesson is that the best way to build a large, complex
system is to evolve it from a small system that works. No one
bothered to get a small system up and running in the first place --
they went for the big bang."
But "once the system gets to a certain point," he said, "there is an
attitude that the project is too big to fail, that 'we have to make it
work now.' There is an unwillingness in upper management to
believe that things are as bad as they are."
Mark Keil, a professor of computer information systems at Georgia
State University and a researcher on failed IT projects, said the plug
should have been pulled in 1994, when the system failed to work as
designed.
"Whenever you talk about building the biggest system in the world,
the most complex, you should take pause. That is often a warning
sign with these projects."

Project Management I - 11
Why Project Management in IT

IT projects have a terrible track record


A 1995 Standish Group study (CHAOS) found that only
16.2% of IT projects were successful and over 31%
were canceled before completion, costing over $81 B
in the U.S. alone
The need for IT projects keeps increasing
In 2000, there were 300,000 new IT projects
In 2001, over 500,000 new IT projects were started

Project Management I - 12
2001 Report Showed Improvement in
Project Success
Time overruns significantly decreased to 163%
compared to 222%
Cost overruns were down to 145% compared to
189%
Required features and functions were up to
67% compared to 61%
78,000 U.S. projects were successful compared
to 28,000
28% of IT projects succeeded compared to 16%
(up to 35% success rate in 2006)

Project Management I - 13
Why the Improvements?

"The reasons for the increase in successful projects vary.


First, the average cost of a project has been more than
cut in half. Better tools have been created to monitor
and control progress and better skilled project
managers with better management processes are
being used. The fact that there are processes is
significant in itself.*

*The Standish Group, "CHAOS 2001: A Recipe for Success" (2001)

Project Management I - 14
Factors Leading to Project Success

Executive support
User involvement
Experienced project manager
Clear business objectives
Minimized scope
Standard software infrastructure
Firm basic requirements
Formal methodology
Reliable estimates
The Standish Group International, Inc. 2001

Project Management I - 15
Lets Look @ IBM

16
IBMs Hardware Problem ... 1992

Slow time to market High development cost

Project Management I - 17
Important Development Limitations
(early 1990s)

Conflicting business performance accountability


Stakeholder involvement late and incomplete
Development focus not market driven
Lack of development prioritization criteria
Weak link to customer requirements & feedback
Inability to meet project commitments
Poor discipline in early termination of projects
Proliferation of many customized tools
Overlapping portfolios

Project Management I - 18
Integrated Product Development
A Product Development Management System

Project Management I - 19
IPD Development Process : Key Elements

Cross Functional Teams


Executive ( IPMT )
Execution ( PDT )

Disciplined Process
6 Phases
4 Decision Checkpoints

Best-of-Breed Enablers
Market Planning Project Management
User Centered Design Reuse
$APPEALS Portfolio Analysis
Best Practices Tools & Guide
Common Building Blocks

Supporting Tools and Apps

Project Management I - 20
Market Based Development Overview

Project Management I - 21
Event Driven Formal Decision Check Points
(DCPs)

Project Management I - 22
IPD Management Governance System
Strong Team Based Management

Project Management I - 23
Metrics

Project Management I - 24
IPD's Observed Benefits

Structure & Discipline


Common Framework & Decision Making Process
Persistent executive focus, perspective
Clearer Rules of Engagement
Increased integration of Marketing and Development

Business & Market Perspective


Increased business focus & accountability
Clarity across market segments, portfolio, and projects

Improved Execution
Checklists by phase minimize surprises
Customization by business area
Structured, planned activities; less react to problems
Cross-functional perspective to all major activities
Improved communication and change management
Repeatability and Lessons Learned
Documentation for clarity and general accessibility

Project Management I - 25
Project Management @ IBM

In support of our strategy, IBM will manage its


business as a project-based business. Projects
are the means by which we will create solutions
to satisfy specific client needs.
The corporation will fully apply and integrate
project management into all core business
processes and systems.
IBM Corporate Executive Committee, November 1996

Project management is a critical professional discipline @


IBM

Project Management I - 26
Project Management A Core Competence

Work is organized along project lines


Projects are consistently funded, staffed and managed in
all business units,and project management has a
consistent role in overall business processes
Individuals involved in project management understand
their roles inindividual and multiple projects, in terms of:
Planning
Implementing
Evaluating
Project outcomes can be predicted with high degrees of
certainty; when predictions are incorrect, you have the
knowledge and ability to adjust decisions and take
proper corrective actions early.

Project Management I - 27
Project Management Organizations

Project Management Institute - PMI


Worldwide organization with roots in the US
Has several chapters in Germany
Provides certification

Gesellschaft fr Projekt Management - GPM


Organization based in Germany
Provides certification

Project Management I - 28
2. Getting Started

29
Getting Started

What is a project?
What is project management?
Project life cycle and phases
The project environment
Sources of conflict in a project environment
Project management, complexity, and change

Project Management I - 30
Objectives

At the end of this module, you will

Know the characteristics that define a project


Be able to describe the project life cycle
Be able to describe the project environment and
its sources of conflict
Appreciate how complexity and change influence
project management decision making

Project Management I - 31
What Is a Project?

A project is a temporary endeavor undertaken


to accomplish a unique product or service

Attributes of projects
unique purpose
temporary
require resources, often from various areas
should have a primary sponsor and/or customer
involve uncertainty

Project Management I - 32
The Triple Constraint

Every project is constrained in different ways by


its
Scope goals: What is the project trying to
accomplish?
Time goals: How long should it take to complete?
Cost goals: What should it cost?

It is the project managers duty to balance these


three competing goals

Project Management I - 33
Project Management The Magic Triangle

Scope

Effectiveness Productivity

Quality

Budget Time
Project Size

Project Management I - 34
What is Project Management?

Formal definition -
The process of bringing a project to fruition in as effective a manner
as possible

What project managers say -


Project management concerns getting the job done
On time
Within budget
According to scope

PMI definition -
"Project management is the application of knowledge, skills, tools,
and techniques to project activities to meet project requirements."

Project Management I - 35
Advantages of Project Management

Better control of financial, physical, and human


resources
Improved customer relations
Shorter development times
Lower costs
Higher quality and increased reliability
Higher profit margins
Improved productivity
Better internal coordination
Higher worker morale

Project Management I - 36
Project Stakeholders

Stakeholders are the people involved in or


affected by project activities
Stakeholders include
the project sponsor and project team
support staff
customers
users
suppliers
opponents to the project

Project Management I - 37
Project Management Tools and
Techniques
Project management tools and techniques assist
project managers and their teams in various
aspects of project management

Some specific ones include


Project Charter, scope statement, and WBS (scope)
Gantt charts, network diagrams, critical path analysis,
critical chain scheduling (time)
Cost estimates and earned value management (cost)

Project Management I - 38
How Project Management Relates to
Other Disciplines
Much of the knowledge needed to manage
projects is unique to the discipline of project
management
Project mangers must also have knowledge and
experience in
general management
the application area of the project

Project Management I - 39
PM Knowledge Areas & Processes
Project
Management

Project Management I - 40
9 Project Management Knowledge
Areas
Knowledge areas describe the key competencies
that project managers must develop
4 core knowledge areas lead to specific project
objectives (scope, time, cost, and quality)
4 facilitating knowledge areas are the means through
which the project objectives are achieved (human
resources, communication, risk, and procurement
management)
1 knowledge area (project integration management)
affects and is affected by all of the other knowledge
areas

Project Management I - 41
Overview: 5 Process Groups and 44 Processes
Initiating (2) Planning (21) Executing (7) Monitoring & Controlling (12) Closing (2)
Project
Activity Scope
Proj. Charter Management Verification Close
Sequencing Monitor &
Plan Project
Activity Direct & Manage Control Project
Definition Project Execution Work
Scope
Preliminary Scope Activity Control
Scope Stmt Planning Duration
Activity Estimating
Resource Quality Schedule
Estimating Assurance Control
Scope
Definition
Cost Schedule
Estimating Acquire Cost Control
Development Project Team

Create WBS Cost Quality


Budgeting Team Control
Communic. Development
Planning
Manage
Human Res, Project
Risk Planning Request Seller Team
Management
Planning Response
Quality
Planning Performance
Reporting

Plan Select
Risk Plan Seller Manage
Purchases &
Identification Contracting Stakeholders
Acquisitions

Quantiative Risk Contract Contract


Qualitative
Risk Analysis Response Admin. Closure
Risk Analysis Planning
Information Integrated
Risk
Distribution Change Control Monitoring &
Control

Project Management I - 42
Project Life Cycle

Project Management I - 43
PMI Project Life Cycle

Project Management I - 44
Example: IBMs Integrated Product
Development Model

Project Management I - 45
The Project Environment

High-stress environment
Ambiguous roles and responsibilities
Multiple bosses and multiple projects
Strong competitive pressures

Project Management I - 46
Sources of Conflict in a Project Management
Environment
Project priorities
Administrative procedures
Technical opinions and performance tradeoffs
Staff resources
Expenses
Schedule
Personalities
Unclear measurement
Cross-project dependencies

Project Management I - 47
Project Management, Complexity & Change

Complexity is influenced by both internal and


external change

Changing players
Budgetary instability
Changing technology
Changing competitive environment
People changing their minds
Changing macro economics forces

Project Management I - 48
Project Management Complexity

Complexity is a fact of life in project management

Project manager Brand managers


Sponsor(s) Executive management
Customers Production and fulfillment
Marketing & sales Procurement
Finance

Project Management I - 49
Global Projects Increase Complexity

Number of interfaces
Time differences
Physical distance
Language issues
Cultural differences
Country-specific laws and regulations

Project Management I - 50
Key Messages

Projects are unique and aligned with strategic


imperatives, with clear objectives, deliverables, budgets,
and schedules
Projects have a start and an end
Project managers (PMs) must know the project life cycle
and their roles in managing that life cycle
The project environment is a complex one, rife with
potential conflict - PMs must be prepared to deal with
that conflict
PMs must identify and be aware of potential conflicts
that may arise and how to manage them

Project Management I - 51
3. Kicking Off the Project

52
Objectives

At the end of this module, you will be able to

Identify different forms of project organization


and the effect each has on project
communications
Describe the matrix organization
Apply project survival techniques
Prepare a project charter
Prepare a team charter

Project Management I - 53
Types of Organizations Used in Projects

Functional

Projectized

Project Management I - 54
Functional vs Project Work

Project Management I - 55
How to Organize

Project Management I - 56
Organizations in Development

Project Management I - 57
Types of Organizations Used in Projects

Matrix Organization

Project Management I - 58
Project Organization

The matrix form of organization affects the


Relative authority of the project manager
Relative authority of the functional manager
Communication flows
within team (intra-team communication)
with stakeholders (inter-group communication)
Effectiveness and success of the project

Project Management I - 59
Project Types and Preferred Organizational
Structures

Project Management I - 60
Organizational Structure Influence on
Projects

Project Management I - 61
Projects in a Matrix Organization

Matrix organizations evolved from the traditional


management structure
Its multi-disciplinary team members are drawn from
various line or functional units in a hierarchical
organization
Using a matrix, a project organization is superimposed
on a functional organization
Matrix organizations are complex and present a difficult
challenge to the project manager
Challenges involve -
Authority/responsibility of the project manager and functional
manager
Communications flow (within the team and to and from other
groups)

Project Management I - 62
Making the Matrix Work

Successful operation depends on the attitudes,


actions, and activities of the people involved
A project charter is extremely helpful
Project managers and functional managers must
develop good working relationships
Project managers should realize that they get
their job accomplished primarily through the
process of negotiation and leadership
Project team members must adapt a two-boss
situation

Project Management I - 63
Project Organization Survival Techniques

Have a project charter


Learn how to anticipate and constructively channel
conflict
Establish a clear scope of project with team members
Develop methods to promote teamwork
Document approval of objectives, plans, and budgets
Reduce uncertainty and risk through careful and
continual planning
Develop political awareness
Know the key players
Know their goals
Know your strength and weaknesses

Project Management I - 64
Project Charter

Clear statement of project intent


Preliminary delineation of roles and responsibilities
Reference of authority for the future of the project

Project charter fundamentals


Set boundaries of scope
Be as concise as possible
Identify names and titles for reasonability
Map out the flow of documentation and information in
advance
Establish expectations for change control, budget, and
status reports

Project Management I - 65
How Do You Build a Team?

Select the right team members


Identify the project skills needed
Validate required skills and resources
Organize the team
Identify all subproject managers/team leads
Prepare organization chart
Establish delegation levels
Ensure open communications
Establish communication plan
Inspire team members to do their best
Incorporate new team members as they join the project
during its life cycle

Project Management I - 66
Considerations for a Multi-Cultural Team

Social customs
Time zone differences
Language
Protocol practices
Documentation practices

Project Management I - 67
Team Charter

Set broad performance objectives


Joining the team implies its acceptance
Sets expectations for the success of the project
Sets the roles and responsibilities for the project
team members
Sets the ground rules for the operation of the
project team, including
Administration guidelines
Conflict management
Escalation

Project Management I - 68
Code of Conduct

Defines behavioral expectations


Created in a forum by the team
In seven steps
Solicit suggested behaviors from team members
Compile a list of suggested behaviors
Identify overlap
Narrow the list
Write down the Code of Conduct
Establish group commitment
Live it!

Project Management I - 69
Elements of a Useful Team Charter

Team performance Rules of engagement


objectives Meeting protocols
Mutually agreed on Decision making
Signature of team members Discussion protocols
Support of agreements
Expectations of team
members / Code of Administrative procedures
Conduct Communication management
Behaviors Document control
Timeliness Point of contact
Respect Escalation procedure
Commitment Work hours (including
Openness overtime)

Project Management I - 70
Key Messages

The project manager is the focal point - the person


responsible for the success of the project; he or she may
or may not be involved at the start of the project
The project manager must -
Learn to maximize the benefits of any organizational structure
used
Motivate the team to enhance its ability to function
Develop a political awareness - within company and with
clients/project sponsors, suppliers, and other stakeholders
A project charter gives the project manager authority to
apply organizational resources to project activities
A team charter sets broad performance objectives for
the team and expectations for the project; performance
objectives should be measurable

Project Management I - 71
Team Member Selection :
Meyers-Briggs Personality Types

72
Personality Types

Theory of psychological type was introduced by Carl Jung


Theory was adapted and expanded by I. Myers-Briggs to make
theory accessible to individuals & groups
16 Myers-Briggs personality types (MBTI) based on
Favorite world: Do you prefer to focus on the outer world or on your
own inner world? This is called Extraversion (E) or Introversion (I).
Information: Do you prefer to focus on the basic information you take
in or do you prefer to interpret and add meaning? This is called Sensing
(S) or Intuition (N).
Decisions: When making decisions, do you prefer to first look at logic
and consistency or first look at the people and special circumstances?
This is called Thinking (T) or Feeling (F).
Structure: In dealing with the outside world, do you prefer to get
things decided or do you prefer to stay open to new information and
options? This is called Judging (J) or Perceiving (P).

Project Management I - 73
Attitudes of Orientation

Reflect the ways in which you are energized and how


you structure, or live, your life.
Those who prefer Extraversion, direct energy outwardly and are
energized by the outside world.
Those who prefer Introversion, direct energy inwardly and are
energized by reflecting on their inner world.
People who prefer the Judging attitude are likely to come to
conclusions quickly and enjoy the structure provided by reaching
closure.
People who prefer the Perceiving attitude are likely to take more
time to gather information before comfortably coming to closure,
enjoy the process, and are more comfortable being open-ended.

Project Management I - 74
The Four Mental Functions

Sensing, Intuition, Thinking, and Feeling.


Two of the mental functions are for gathering informationthat
is, they are used for perception:
Sensing (S) perception pays attention to details and current realities
Intuition (N) perception pays attention to meanings, patterns, and
future possibilities.
Two of the mental functions are for organizing information and
for making decisionsthat is, they are used for judgment:
Thinking (T) chooses decisions based on principles and logical
consequences.
Feeling (F) chooses decisions based on values and consequences for
people.

Project Management I - 75
Project Management I - 76
The Explorer - Explorer or entrepreneur type project leaders have a vision of the future and
projects are the stepping stones. They are bold, courageous and imaginative. There is a constant
search for opportunities and improvements. They are comfortable in the lead, and exude
confidence and charisma. They are good at networking and selling. They may, however, have
little time for day-to-day problems which are delegated to others. Their project power derives
from past experience, enthusiasm, and superior ability to communicate.
The Driver - Drivers are distinctly action-oriented and are both hard-working and hard driving.
They are pragmatic, realistic, resourceful and resolute, and their focus is on project mission and
precise project goals. They are generally well planned and self-disciplined, so for those who have
similar traits, they are easy to work with. Conflict is likely with those who are not so inclined.
Their power is derived from authority and they are quite prepared to use it.
The Coordinator - Coordinators are just as important when the project phase or situation calls
for "facilitation". They generally take a more independent and detached view of their
surroundings. Coordinators are responsive to the views of project team members who must take
responsibility for their own decisions. Therefore, their role is to ensure that team issues are
surfaced, discussed and resolved to the team's mutual satisfaction. These individuals tend to be
humble, sensitive and willing to compromise. The Coordinator's power is derived from his or her
ability to persuade others to compromise.
The Administrator - Administrators recognize the need for stability, typically in order to
optimize productivity through maximizing repetition to the extent possible on a project and to get
the work finished. Often, requisite information must be assembled and carefully analyzed, with
thought given to the trade-offs and how conflicts and problems can be resolved and disposed of
in advance. Work must be carefully scheduled and procedurized if potential gains are to be
realized and "all the pieces are to be carefully put in place". The Administrator's power derives
from intellectual logic and organizational achievement.

Project Management I - 77
Leadership Types

Project Management I - 78
More Detail Available

http://www.myersbriggs.org/
http://www.maxwideman.com/papers/profiles/intro.htm

Project Management I - 79
4. Project Selection

80
Objectives

At the end of this module, you will be able to

Understand project selection and its role in the


overall project
Understand processes that drive the project
selection processes
Describe financial analysis approaches used for
project selection

Project Management I - 81
Projects for Selection

Where do projects come from?


Ideas are sought from business unit managers
At the start of each corporate planning cycle
And presented in some standard format
Perhaps an elemental Business Case
Or a project concept document

Note: PM service organizations


Respond to project needs but rarely initiate projects

Project Management I - 82
The Project Selection Process

Projects are typically

Identified by the sponsoring organization


During the corporate planning process, e.g. as part of a portfolio
management exercise
Subjected to a screening or selection process
That is formal and consistent
Based on a viable business case
Or specific criteria, e.g. a simple risk assessment
Consistent with corporate goals and objectives
Unless a "pet project" of a corporate executive !
Managed from idea to product delivery

Project Management I - 83
Portfolio Analysis in Project Selection

Analytical tool to determine investments in


products, systems, businesses, and services
Results in -
Investment priorities
Alternative strategies
Performance improvement initiatives
Financial measurements
Typically used by corporate planning, business
segments, and portfolio management/market
planning teams

Project Management I - 84
Portfolio Management Logical View

Project Management I - 85
Selection Responsibility

Project selection
Is the responsibility of a group of senior
managers
Representing the various corporate functional
departments
Usually rests with a corporate steering
committee
Or the "Selection committee"
Who are responsible for ensuring that the corporate
vision and objectives are implemented

Project Management I - 86
Project Categories

Projects typically fall into one of the following


categories

1. A regulatory requirement
E.g. Sarbanes-Oxley, Basel II, EU Data Protection
2. A need to satisfy public safety concerns
3. An operational efficiency improvement
4. Environmental improvement or public relations
opportunity
5. New business, or economic opportunity
6. Morally the "Right thing to do"

Project Management I - 87
Selection Criteria - 1

Selection criteria may include


"First cut" categorizing

Strategic fit, value and balance amongst projects

Some variation of numerical scoring


Based on a checklist and relative weighting
Or other decision models

Project Management I - 88
Selection Criteria - 2

Selection criteria may also include


Comparative criteria such as
Financial analysis including
Return on investment, or internal rate of return
Cost/benefit analysis
Economic analysis
Cash flow or pay-back analysis
Financial sensitivity to risk

Project Management I - 89
Next Steps

Depending on the size of the project


Allocate "investigative" funding
To fully develop the Business Case
Or
Fund a feasibility study
Or
Authorize the conceptual phase of the project to
Research the technology, its practicality
Confirm the economics
Estimate budget and resources required
Identify risks and alternatives
Sell concept, obtain approvals

Project Management I - 90
Project Ranking

Compares benefit/cost by
Three types of contribution to corporate goals
Strategic improvement
Efficiency improvement
Operational continuity
Versus cost effort or size
Size may imply high risk for a small organization
Swamping of resources
Think about: Time, effort, complexity, money, resistance, resources, tradeoffs, disruption

Project Management I - 91
Ranking Categories

Strategic
Directly contributes to corporate goals
Adds new revenue sources, products or services
Establishes new positioning
Efficiency
Increases production
Reduces costs
Operational
Equipment servicing to maintain output
System upgrades
To match current technology

Project Management I - 92
Plotting Results

Strategic

Top Priority Medium


Low-Hanging Fruit Priority

Efficiency

High Low
Priority Priority
Operational

Effort
Small Large

Project Management I - 93
Ranking Secondary Factors

Risks
Schedule risk
Cost estimate accuracy risk
Technological risk
Opportunities
Public relations
Marketing
Learning and competence
Impact on organization
Consequence of not doing
Degree of urgency
Benefits
Broadness of application
Return on investment

Project Management I - 94
Non-Numeric Models

Sacred cow
Suggested by Executive
Operating necessity
Major loss without project
Competitive necessity
Address competitive pressures
Product line extensions
Fill gap, eliminate weakness, extend life of product line
Comparative benefit model
Selection based on comparison of multiple investment
opportunities
Just do it!
Easy!

Project Management I - 95
Numeric Selection Models

Portfolio Analysis
Opportunities
Future
Perceived
Why not

Profitability measures
Return on sales
Return on investments and return on assets (ROA)
Net present value (NPV)

Project Management I - 96
Life-Cycle Cost

Technique assesses "total cost" of project


from Concept to End-of-Life

Normalizes all risks to measure their effect on


baseline life-cycle cost (LCC)
Usually uses computer model
Generally used for complex projects that are
relatively expensive and multi-year in duration

Project Management I - 97
Profitability Measures

Assess the relative levels of return to an organization


from various alternatives
May be applied to factors having nothing to do with
monetary profit or loss - are a means to evaluate the
relative desirability of a given option
Are selected for use based on the relative length of an
option, the level of investment, and the timing of inflow
and outflow
In order of increasing complexity, the most common
profitability measures are -
Net Present value
Return on sales (ROS) or simple profit
Return on assets (ROA) or return on investment (ROI)
Economic value added (EVA)

Project Management I - 98
Using Financial Measures to Select Projects
and Alternative Strategies
Present value = PV

Payment today is worth more than payment


tomorrow
Present value is the value of a future payment
For a given future payment t years from now -
PV = Mt / (1 + r)t
Mt = amount of payment t years from now
r = interest rate (sometimes called "discount rate")

Project Management I - 99
NPV Example

N
CashFlown
NPV =
n =0 (1 + q )n

Assume a Discount Rate of 10%


A cash flow of 10.000 EUR Present Value
today NPV = 10.000 / (1 + 0.1)0 = 10.000
in 1 year NPV = 10.000 / (1 + 0.1)1 = 9.091
in 2 years NPV = 10.000 / (1 + 0.1)2 = 8.264
in 3 years NPV = 10.000 / (1 + 0.1)3 = 7.513

Project Management I - 100


Sample Calculation Net Present Value

Project Management I - 101


Return on Sales (ROS)

ROS is a simple, time-independent measure of


net profit or return as a percentage of a
project's total sales or revenue generated

ROS = Net Profit / Sales

Negative return on sales indicates a loss

Project Management I - 102


ROS Example

Components of a compute system are purchased


for $500,000. Additional systems integration and
programming work is performed for $200,000.
Indirect (overhead) expenses of 50% of labor
costs are allocated to the project.
Once assembled, the computer system is sold
for $1 million.
Income taxes are 40%.
Calculate net profit and return on sales.

Project Management I - 103


ROS Example - Calculated

Sales = 1,000,000
Material = 500,000
Labor = 200,000
Overhead = 100,000
Profit = 200,000
Taxes = 80,000
Net Profit = 120,000

ROS = Net Profit/ Sales


ROS = $120,000 / $1,000,000
ROS = 12 %

Project Management I - 104


Profit & Loss Calculation
Revenue - Cost (royalties, warranty, maintenance, base manufacturing cost, goods,...) =
Gross profit (GP); % GP (percentage from revenue)
- Unique expenses (development expense, direct marketing and services,...)
- SG&A (sales, general administration & allocations)
= NEBT (net earnings before tax) = Profit contribution
% NEBT (percentage from revenue)

Project Management I - 105


Return on Assets on (ROA)

A relative measure of profitability comparing an


organization's return on an effort with its overall
investment in assets required to perform the
effort

Sometimes referred to as return on investment


(ROI)

ROA = Net Profit / Total assets

Project Management I - 106


ROA Example

In the previous example, assume the computer


assembly operation required an asset base of $2
million to support its operation.

Calculate ROA.

Project Management I - 107


Economic Value Added (EVA) and Economic
Value Lost (EVL)
Approach that evaluates the return-on-capital
percentage versus the cost-of-capital percentage
Can be calculated using various methods
Assesses the effectiveness of creating value for
shareholders

Project Management I - 108


What is Cost of Capital?

Represents the cost of financing an organization's


operations
Reflects the minimum rate of return required by
investors
Debt holders require interest and principle re-payment
Shareholders require dividends and stock price
appreciation
Focusing on the cost of capital enables an organization
to identify development projects that create value for
shareholders

Project Management I - 109


EVA Approach & Example

EVA is used to measure financial value created for shareholders


EVA = net operating profits after taxes minus the weighted average
cost of capital (NOPAT - WACC)
Using the same information from the ROS and ROA examples,
assume the weighted average cost of capital for your company is
determined to be 10%.
Calculate EVA.

Project Management I - 110


Raising EVA

There's nothing fancy or complicated about how to make economic value added
(EVA) go up. It's a fundamental measure of return on capital, and there are just
three ways to increase it:

Earn more profit without using more capital


You probably spend much of your time thinking of ways to do this; cost cutting is
today's favorite method. Nothing wrong with that, but focusing on it often blinds
companies to other ways of raising EVA.

Use less capital


In practice, this is often the method that companies adopting EVA find most
effective. Coke uses plastic containers for concentrate instead of costlier metal ones.
CSX figures out how to operate with 100 locomotives instead of 150. Quaker
reschedules production to require fewer warehouses.
What to do with the capital saved? Companies can return it to shareholders through
higher dividends or stock buybacks, or can ...

Invest capital in high-return projects


This is what growth is all about. Just make sure you expect these projects to earn
more than the total cost of the capital they require.
From "The Real Key to Creating Wealth", Fortune, September 20, 1993

Project Management I - 111


Summary of Profitability Measures

Project Management I - 112


5. Project Definition &
Requirements

113
Objectives

At the end of this module, you will be able to

Recognize the need to validate requirements


Recognize pitfalls in defining requirement
Describe how to define a requirements baseline
Prepare a scope definition document for
effective project planning

Project Management I - 114


Basic Questions

The first step in the project definition process needs to


address the following questions:
Precisely who is affected by the project?
What are the requirements of those affected?
Who is involved in the delivery of work?
Where are we now?
Where should we end up?
What are the technical performance requirements?
What are the expense limitations?
What is the project's duration including time-to-market, time-to-
profitability, and total life cycle?
What are the risks?
What are most important aspects of deliverables, that is,
technical, ease of use, distribution?

Project Management I - 115


Terminology & Definitons

Goals Ends that the firm strives to attain - e.g.,


become the preferred database provider of
SAP installations
Objectives What Specific targets that further the goal - e.g.,
delivering a product release world-wide by
Jan 2009 delivering certain functionality
Requirements The needs of the customer that refine the
objectives in sufficient detail to plan the
Specifications work
The firm's approach to meeting the
requirements, goals, and objectives, spelled
out in considerable detail

Project Management I - 116


Project Objectives

Establish unambiguous and realistic objectives


Good objectives are unambiguously stated and contain
a measure of how to assess whether or not they have
been achieved
To be realistic, objectives must be determined jointly
by project managers, functional managers, and those
who perform the work - a top-down, bottom-up
process
Periodically evaluate whether project objectives
are being achieved
Act on results of the evaluation

Project Management I - 117


Ensuring Good Product Objectives

When an objective meets the criteria it


Can survive the departure of a key sponsor or project
management team member without diluting its clarity
Matches firm's approaches to doing business

Serves the customer need without restricting how the


job is accomplished
Serves as a foundation for the work breakdown structure
(WBS)
Is S.M.A.R.T.
Specific - Measurable - Agreed to / Alingned- Realistic Timebound
Spezifisch Messbar Attraktiv Realistisch - Terminiert

Project Management I - 118


Requirements Baseline & Exclusions

Needs: Client/project sponsor requests, ideas, and business requirements


Requirements: Statement of desire for a future system
Exclusions: Statements of "not-included" for a future system
Requirements Baseline: Statements of commitment for future system

Requirements Baseline is frequently also referred to as Specification

Project Management I - 119


Identify & Validate Requirements

Developing a proposal
Beginning a project
Taking over a project already in process
(revalidating)
Reassessing the requirements of a project (mid-
project)

Project Management I - 120


Why Establish a Requirements Baseline

The requirements baseline

Incorporates the original requirements for a


project plus or minus approved changes
Serves as the basis for managing requirements
Must be signed and approved
Helps serve as the basis of ensuring that the
project is complete
Defines the scope of the project

Project Management I - 121


Requirements Baseline = Requirements-
Exclusions

Project Management I - 122


Specification Questions

A review of fundamental questions can provide insight on a


project's requirements

What should it do?


Who are the customers?
How much will it cost the customer?
How will it be marketed?
Where will it be bought?
How will it be ordered?
How long will it last?

Project Management I - 123


Specification Questions (cont'd)

Are similar products already in development or


operation?
What is the expense plan?
How long is the development process?
How will it be serviced?
Can the firm's existing infrastructure support it?
What outside support is required?
How will success be defined?
What support system will firm keep in place?

Project Management I - 124


Identifying & Validating Requirements

Work jointly with clients / project sponsors


Obtain detailed descriptions of problems to be
solved
State the requirements explicitly and have
project staff and clients / project sponsors sign
off
Be realistic: assume that if a requirement can be
misinterpreted it will be misinterpreted
Use a scope definition document

Project Management I - 125


Identifying & Validating Requirements
(cont'd)
If possible, include pictures, graphics, models and other
non-verbal exhibits in requirements formulation
Ensure that project deliverables are directly related to
requirements
Establish a system to monitor changes made to the
requirements
Educate the project staff and clients / project sponsors
about problems in specifying requirements
Obtain client / project sponsor signature on requirement
baseline

Project Management I - 126


Role of Scope Definition Document

Creates a baseline for measuring and managing


change
Set measures within which to control
Prevents team from jumping in and wasting
effort
Ensures clarity of scope before detail planning
begins

Project Management I - 127


What is a Scope Definition Document

Is an overview document
Sets project bounds
Establishes what the project will do and will not
do
Begins to organize project into manageable form
Is not a project charter
Is not a team charter

Project Management I - 128


Contents of Scope Definition Document

Background and summary of project


Where did this project come from?
Why is it being done?
What does the customer receive or not receive by project end?
Project objective(s)
What is the target of the project?
What problem should the project solve?
What are the major components of work on the project?
Project deliverables
What are the major products required to meet the objectives?
Customer deliverables
Project deliverables
Process deliverables

Project Management I - 129


Contents of Scope Definition Document
(cont'd)
Key milestones
What major points in time are important to communicate?
What major points in time are important to measure against?
What are the bureaucratic milestones?
Assumptions
What unknowns are being made into knowns?
What are the operating rules and standards?
Risks
What obstacles could jeopardize project success?
Cost
Schedule
Requirements
Quality

Project Management I - 130


Contents of Scope Definition Document
(cont'd)
Key resource requirements
What specialized resources are necessary to complete this
project?
Human
Material
Constraints
What issues are restricting this project?
Technology
Human resources
Political
Interrelated projects
What effects are there on other programs?
What other projects are addressing related issues?
What other projects have a potential impact on this project?

Project Management I - 131


Contents of Scope Definition Document
(cont'd)
Acceptance criteria
What technical performance is required?
What checkpoints are in place to ensure that the right product is
being delivered in the right way?
How will success be measured?
Signatures
What reviews will be done? When?
Who approves project reviews?
Reviews
At what points will management reviews be conducted?
At what points will customer reviews be conducted?
At what points will informal (team, peer) reviews be conducted?
For what purpose?

Project Management I - 132


Contents of Scope Definition Document
(cont'd)
Communication plan
How will team members communicate?
What types of meetings will be held? Frequency? Purpose?
What type of reports will be written? Frequency? Purpose?
Change management plan
What process will be followed when project change occurs?
Financial analysis
Net present value (NPV)
Benefit-cost ratio
Return on sales (ROS)
Return on assets (ROA)

Project Management I - 133


Pitfalls in Defining Needs

Dealing with inherently fuzzy needs


Dynamic
Uncertainty regarding who will use the product
Identifying solutions prematurely
Addressing the needs of multiple customers
Developers' values may color and distort end-user
needs
Gold-plating needs
Selective filtering of customer needs
"Father knows best" approach to recognizing and articulating
needs

Project Management I - 134


Customers Frequently Cant Articulate What
They Need
They know what they don't need
As the product develops and takes on tangible
forms, customers see new possibilities
Customers know what they want when they see
it (prototype)
Customers must be taken seriously - a project
may be considered a failure if the product is not
utilized, is underutilized, or is mis-utilized by the
intended customer

Project Management I - 135


Key Messages

Always do requirements analysis and validation


Ensure that you ask the right questions
Use a systematic approach
State requirements explicitly - have project staff and the
client/project sponsor sign off
Consider requirements definition between the project team and
client/project sponsor
Know the differences among requirements, exclusions, and
requirements baseline
Issues will occur that require management and resolution may
result in change
Baselines are essential to controlling the evolution of requirements
As the project manager, assume responsibility for screening change
requests, avoid scope creep, and revising the baseline

Project Management I - 136


6. Developing a Work
Breakdown Structure (WBS)

137
Objectives

At the end of this module, you will be able to

Develop a WBS for a project


Define the WBS dictionary
Describe the importance and uses of the WBS
for managing a project
Distinguish between cost accounts and work
packages

Project Management I - 138


WBS - Work Breakdown Structure

Dominant prerequisite for successfully


integrating and controlling the total project
Framework on which a project is built and the"
map" for executing the project
Graphically depicts the hierarchy of the project

Project Management I - 139


Benefits of Using a WBS

Provides the framework to identify development


projects separately from geographies,
accounting systems, funding sources, and so on
Clarifies responsibilities
Focuses attention on project objectives
Encourages detailed planning and
documentation
Identifies specific work packages for estimating
and assigning work

Project Management I - 140


WBS Definitions

WBS - A task- or product-oriented family-tree division of hardware,


software, services, data, and other work tasks that completely
define the project

Size and number of WBS levels vary with project, but the WBS must
be complete to relate all elements to one another and to the total
product.

Project Management I - 141


WBS Definitions (cont'd)

Cost account
One level above the work package where costs are
accrued - lowest management and control level
Work package
Lowest level of the WBS consisting of required tasks
to complete each product - used to budget and
schedule with a defined delivery date

Rule of Thumb: Work package should consist of


approximately 80 hours of labor effort
(PMI standard)

Project Management I - 142


WBS Development Process

Develop and/or review project goals and


objectives
Prepare a summary (high-level) WBS
Total project: Level 1
Major subsystem and project services: Level 2
Major subsystems and project services elements:
Level 3
Meet with responsible project team members,
sponsors, and other project stakeholders
(internal and external)
Project Management I - 143
WBS Development Process (cont'd)

Responsible departments and geographies


further define to lowest meaningful level, which
produces work packages, including -
Technical performance parameters
Schedule (with a defined delivery date)
Expenses
Prepare detailed WBS dictionary

Project Management I - 144


WBS Dictionary

WBS dictionary must include

Work item number


Work item title
Description of work
Predecessors and successors
Work to be accomplished
Deliverable/objective
How do you know you are done?
Who needs the output?
Ownership/participation
Who is responsible?
Who else will be involved?

Project Management I - 145


Use of WBS

Planning and budgeting


Funding
Estimating
Scheduling
Performance measurement
Change management

Project Management I - 146


Key Points on WBS

Identify all tasks to accomplish the project


Use good judgment as the key to an effective
WBS - no hard and fast rules
Structure WBS as work will be done
Levels of detail should allow for realistic
estimating
Levels of detail should allow assignment to
single organizational control unit

Project Management I - 147


Key Points on WBS (cont'd)

Limit level of detail to level of control


Each lowest level task should result in a
deliverable
Each WBS description should include an action
verb, for example -
Establish manufacturability criteria
Prepare final product proposal package
Update common software
Each task should have single, identifiable owner

Project Management I - 148


Key Messages

The WBS is the cornerstone of quality project


planning
The WBS is a tool, not an end unto itself
There are multiple uses of the WBS
The WBS is not a schedule
The WBS is a good project team-building tool

Project Management I - 149


7. Risk Fundamentals

"On large projects, a healthy respect for significant risks is the


difference between success and failure; and on the large
projects, the financial consequences-as well as the legal,
social, and political consequences-can be devastating.
Edward Yourdon

150
Objectives

At the end of this module, you will

Know the three items that characterize risk and


the difference between risk and uncertainty
Understand the characteristics that distinguish
risk
Know how the risk management is done and
who does risk management

Project Management I - 151


Facts of Project Life

Project risk is the possibility that something may


go wrong
Or, at least, not happen as planned
It is unrealistic to assume that everything will
work as expected
Hence risk management
Tries to deal with adverse events in an organized and
systematic manner
Attempts to abate or mitigate potential risk events
Is an essential part of project management

Project Management I - 152


Risk Management: What Is It?

An approach to managing that is based on


identification and mitigation of areas and events
that have the potential for causing unwanted
change in the process or product or offering

Doing so in a way that is in the best interests of


the projects objectives especially during the
implementation or execution phases

Project Management I - 153


Why Engage in Risk Management?

Protect
Cost
Schedule
Specifications
Gain competitive advantage by recognizing opportunities
before competitors do
Focus on building the right offering the first time
Prevent surprises
Prevent management by crisis
Prevent problems from occurring, or if they do, from
escalating

Project Management I - 154


Risk Characteristics

A definable event
Probability of occurrence
Consequences (impact) of occurrence

Risk is almost always viewed as having a loss


associated with it.

Project Management I - 155


Risk as a Function of Its Components

Project Management I - 156


Characteristics that Distinguish Risk

Situational
No textbook answer
Must rely on sound use of tools to deal with risk
Interdependent
One risk event can affect others
Quantity of risks may affect perceptions
Magnitude dependent
Risk acceptability is ambivalent: the greater the pay-
off, the more risk is acceptable
Break point makes any pay-off unacceptable

Project Management I - 157


Characteristics that Distinguish Risk (cont'd)

Value based
Personal values affect company risk taking
Company values affect individual choices
Time based
Risk is future phenomenon only
Time affects risk perception
Risks are reversible

Project Management I - 158


What Affects Risk Perception?

Control (choice)

One can be placed at risk by -


Oneself
Another
"Acts of nature" (or the government)

Project Management I - 159


What Affects Risk Perception?

Information available

Inadequate
Unfamiliar
Unreliable
Unpredictable

Project Management I - 160


What Affects Risk Perception?

Time

The further into the future, the greater the


degree of uncertainty
Lack of time to identify risk and perform risk
management
Can we change our actions today to make a
better situation tomorrow?

Project Management I - 161


When is Risk Management Done?

Project Management I - 162


Risk Preference

Project Management I - 163


Who Does Risk Management?

Project manager issues request for risk


assessment to project team members
Project management team develops risk
assessment report
Project management team members develop
risk management plans based on risk
assessment report

Project Management I - 164


Risk Management Process

Risk management planning


Risk identification
Qualitative risk analysis
Quantitative risk analysis
Risk response planning
Risk monitoring and control

Risk [management] does not deal with future decisions,


but with the future of present decisions. - Robert Charette, 1989

Project Management I - 165


Risk Management Planning

Deciding how to approach and plan the risk


management activities for a project
Inputs -
Project charter
Risk management policies
Stakeholder risk tolerance
Templates for the organization's risk management
plan
WBS

Project Management I - 166


Risk Management Planning (contd)

Risk Management Plan


Methodology
Roles and responsibilities
Budgeting
Timing
Scoring and interpretation
Thresholds
Reporting formats
Tracking

Project Management I - 167


Risk Identification

Determining which risks might affect the project and


documenting their characteristics
Inputs -
Risk management plan
Project planning outputs
Risk categories
Historical information
Outputs
Risks
Triggers
Inputs to other processes

Project Management I - 168


Practical Approach to Risk Identification

Use comprehensive project structure (the WBS)


and questionnaires (if available) as basis for risk
identification
Be thorough, but not absurd
Develop as complete a list of risks as possible
Assign identification tasks to appropriate team
members
Do not analyze risks at this time

Project Management I - 169


Tools & Techniques for Risk Identification

Documentation reviews
Information-gathering techniques
Brainstorming
Delphi technique
Interviewing
SWOT analysis (strength, weaknesses, opportunities,
and threats)
Checklists
Assumption analysis
Diagram techniques

Project Management I - 170


Brainstorming

Single brainstorming session should not last much


longer than an hour.
All ideas should be recorded.
Two basic rules should be observed during
brainstorming sessions:
1. Criticism, judgment, or analysis of the generated ideas is
absolutely prohibited during the session. Criticism can be
conducted after the idea-generation sessions have been
completed.
2. Quantity is encouraged. Variations, extensions, and combinations
of previously generated ideas are often more valuable than the
originals. Seemingly wild ideas are welcomed without comment,
just as conservative ideas are.

Project Management I - 171


Delphi Technique

Group information-gathering technique without personal interaction.


Focuses the collective knowledge of the group on identifying, forecasting,
and solving problems.
Adds a formal structure to the group process and avoids bias usually
associated with the presence of strong individual personalities in the group.

Opinion Gathering and Distribution


Opinions are written and anonymous
Written ballots are collected by the process administrator, who aggregates the
responses in statistical form, and given to all panel members
Iterative Balloting
Reevaluation, voting, and further substantiation
Reasons and Consensus
Process may be accompanied by anonymous written arguments concerning why
some judgment is correct or incorrect
Iterative feedback continues until no further substantial change results (usually 4
or 5 iterations)

Project Management I - 172


Risk Categories

Technical, quality, or performance risks


Reliance on unproven or complex technology
Unrealistic performance goals
Changes to the technology used or to industry
standards during the project
Project management risks
Poor allocation of time and resources
Inadequate quality of the project plan
Poor use of project management disciplines

Project Management I - 173


Risk Categories (cont'd)

Organizational risks
Cost, time, and scope objectives that are internally
inconsistent
Lack of prioritization of projects
Inadequacy or interruption of funding
Resource conflicts with other projects
External risks
Shifting legal or regulatory environments
Labor issues
Changing owner priorities

Project Management I - 174


Financial Risks

Project sponsor budget or funding availability


Accuracy and detail of requirements
Pricing strategy and accuracy
Competitors' pricing
Current profit potential and future business
potential
Contract type and remedies
Product cost
Warranty cost

Project Management I - 175


Schedule Risk

Customer requirements
Resource availability and skill mix
Schedule realism
Startup difficulties
Cascading delays
Inadequate planning
Time-to-market
Maturity of technology

Project Management I - 176


Technical Risks

Technical expertise
Developmental level of technology maturity
Size or complexity
Integration requirements
Maintenance concerns

Project Management I - 177


Legal Risks

Licenses, royalties
Patent rights
Lawsuits
Data rights
Copyrights

Project Management I - 178


Procurement Risks

Vendor failure to fulfill delivery commitments


Below-standard quality of parts

Project Management I - 179


Other Risks

For non-software projects other risk areas may


exist, e.g.

Manufacturing Risks
Insufficient manufacturing capability
New or changed manufacturing processes

Distribution Risks
Inaccurate or changing volume production data
Distributor unable to meet schedule

Project Management I - 180


Qualitative Risk Analysis

Performing a qualitative analysis of risks and conditions


to prioritize their effects on project objectives
Tools and techniques
Risk probability and impact
Probability/impact risk rating matrix
Project assumptions testing
Data precision ranking
Outputs
Overall risk ranking for the project
List of prioritized risks
List of risks for additional analysis and management
Trends in qualitative risk analysis results

Project Management I - 181


Risk Management
Risk Monitor &
Identification Control

What Can Go wrong? Risk


Risk-adverse culture Analysis
Poorly defined
requirements
No integrated project Characterize the Risk Risk
schedule Probability/Likelihood Planning
Poor configuration Potential Impact /
management Consequence
Poor quality controls Risk Mitigation Risk
Risk Exposure (RE) =
High staff turnover Probability x Impact Options Tracking
Undocumented processes Risk Level: Low, Medium, Accept risk level and
High continue on current plan
Poorly defined acceptance Risk Status Monitoring
criteria Risk Type; Budget, Avoid by eliminating risk Submit weekly Top 10 Risk
Schedule, Function/Scope cause and/or consequence Report
Early/Late Impact Dates
Control the cause or Hold monthly reviews
consequence Enable risk visibilty &
Transfer the risk communicate with all
stakeholders
Actively monitor risk
mitigation actions

Project Management I - 182


Qualitative Risk Rating System

High
Likely to cause significant serious disruption to schedule, increase in
cost, or degradation of performance - even with special supplier
emphasis and close customer monitoring

Medium
Has potential to cause some disruption of schedule, increase in cost,
or degradation of performance - special supplier emphasis and close
customer monitoring, however, will probably overcome difficulties

Low
Has little potential to cause disruption of schedule, increase in cost,
or degradation of performance - normal supplier effort and normal
customer monitoring will probably overcome difficulties

Project Management I - 183


Evaluating Risk Impact

If the risk materializes, what would be the magnitude of the impact?

Level Scope Schedule Budget

Severe degradation in scope; loss of Cannot meet key project


5 critical function; will jeopardize project milestones. Exceeds budget by > 20%
success Slippage > xx months

Significant degradation in scope; loss Project critical path affected.


4 of significant function; may jeopardize
Slippage < xx months
Exceeds budget by 10 - 20%
project success
Minor schedule slip. Able to meet
Moderate reduction in function with key milestones with no schedule
3 limited impact on project scope float. Exceeds budget by 5 10%
Item Slippage < xx months

Minor area in scope affected; can be Able to meet key dates.


2 tolerated with little or no impact Slippage < xx months
Exceeds budget by < 5%

1 Minimal or no consequence to scope Minimal or no impact Insignificant increase in budget

Project Management I - 184


Evaluating Probability of Risk Materializing

What is the probability or likelihood the risk will materialize?

Probability of
Level Likelihood
Occurrence

E Near Certainty ~ 90%

D Highly Likely ~ 70%

C Likely ~ 50%

B Low Likelihood ~ 30%

A Not Likely ~ 10%

Project Management I - 185


Probability Impact Matrix
Risk Exposure
E
Probability / Likelihood

High
D

C
Medium
B

A Low

1 2 3 4 5
Impact / Consequence

Project Management I - 186


Quantitative Risk Analysis

Measuring the probability and consequences of risks and


estimating their implications for project objectives

This process uses techniques to:

Determine the probability of achieving a specific project objective


Quantify the risk exposure for the project, and determine the size
of cost and schedule contingency reserves that may be needed
Identify risks requiring the most attention by quantifying their
relative contribution to project risk
Identify realistic and achievable cost, schedule, or scope targets

Project Management I - 187


Tools and Techniques for Quantitative Risk
Analysis

Interviewing
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Most likely
Sensitivity analysis
Decision tree analysis
Simulation
Project simulation using Monte Carlo technique
Cost risk analysis based on WBS as its model
Schedule risk analysis using PDM (Preference Diagramming
Method)

Project Management I - 188


Cost Estimates and Ranges from the Risk
Interview

The risk interview determines the three-point estimates for each


WBS element.

The traditional estimate of 41, found by summing the most likely


costs, may be relatively unlikely.

Project Management I - 189


Decision Tree Analysis

Project Management I - 190


Risk Response Planning

Developing procedures and techniques to enhance


opportunities and reduce threats to the project's objectives
Avoidance
Mitigation
Seeks to reduce the probability and/or consequences of an
adverse risk event to an acceptable threshold
Acceptance
Active acceptance (contingency plan)
Passive acceptance (no action)
Transference (Deflection)
Shifts consequences & responsibility for managing a risk to a
third party but does not eliminate the risk

Project Management I - 191


Output from Risk Response Planning

Risk response plan


Residual risks
Secondary risks
Contractual agreements
Contingency reserve amounts needed
Inputs to other processes
Inputs to revised project plan

Project Management I - 192


Factors Affecting Mitigation Strategies

Project phase and application


Size
Priority
Complexity
Expense
Time available
Cost of technique
Required level of detail
Ease of use
Resource availability
Project manager and sponsor commitment

Project Management I - 193


Risk Monitoring & Control

Monitoring residual risks, identifying new risks, executing


risk reduction plans, and evaluating their effectiveness
throughout the project life cycle
The purpose of risk monitoring is to determine if -
Risk responses have been implemented as planned
Risk response actions are as effective as expected, or if new
responses should be developed
Project assumptions are still valid
Risk exposure has changed from its prior state, with analysis of
trends
A risk trigger has occurred
Proper policies and procedures are followed
Risks have occurred or arisen that were not previously identified

Project Management I - 194


Risk Management : A Few Questions to Ask
Yourself
Can you list the current top ten project risks?
Has a Risk Management role been assigned to the project?
Are risks determined through established processes for risk
identification, assessment, and mitigation?
Is there a database that includes all nonnegligible risks in terms of
probability, earliest expected visible symptom, estimated and actual
schedule, and cost effects?
Are all project personnel encouraged to become risk identifiers?
Is the database of topten risks updated regularly?
Are user requirements reasonably stable?
Do you know how the risks are changing over time?

Project Management I - 195


Key Messages

Every risk consists of an event, a probability, and an


amount at stake - none of which can be ignored
Risk presents the opportunity for exposure and leverage
A process approach to risk management enhances the
possibilities for risk mitigation and abatement
Risk assessment is initiated during the concept phase
and continued through the end-of-life phase
Risk mitigation strategies should be developed during
the plan phase
Project and functional managers collaborate to assess
and mitigate risk

Project Management I - 196


End Section I

197

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