Brexit Brief Issue 15 January 2017
Introduction
Brexit Brief, published by the IIEAs UK Project Group,
covers developments in the on-going debate in the United
Kingdom, Ireland and the EU Member States over the UKs
decision to withdraw from the EU.
The Brief seeks to provide up-to-date information on the
progress and content of the UK exit negotiation and on
relevant statements and policy positions of key individual
players, EU institutions, national governments, political
parties, business interests and civil society actors.
Section One: State of Play
In London: Supreme Court judgment requires Article 50 bill
On 24 January 2017, the UK Supreme Court delivered
its judgment on the issue of triggering Article 50. An 8-3
majority of the Court upheld the decision of the High
Court that an Act of Parliament is required to authorise
ministers to notify the Council of the UKs decision
to withdraw from the European Union. Furthermore,
the Court unanimously decided that there was no
requirement to consult the devolved administrations on
the issue, stating, The devolved legislatures do not have
a veto on the UKs decision to withdraw from the EU.
A Downing Street spokesperson stressed that the ruling
had not changed the verdict of the British people.
In Prime Ministers Questions on Wednesday 25 January,
Mrs May confirmed that her government, contrary to
previous statements, would in fact publish a white paper
on the negotiating priorities that she set out at Lancaster
House on 17 January 2017. The Government have not
said when they will publish the white paper and it is
unlikely parliament will see the text before the Article 50
bill is debated.
In her speech to Lancaster House, she stated that the
UK would no longer be part of the single market and,
in seeking a new trade deal with the EU, would seek to
conclude a unique customs agreement. European Union
(Notification of Withdrawal) Bill.
On 26 January, the UK Government published the
European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill.
Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union David
Davis said that the purpose of the bill would be simply
to give the government the power to invoke Article 50.
The first reading will take place on Tuesday 31 January.
It is expected to progress to the House of Lords after 8
February when the House of Commons committee stage
ends.
The Scottish National Party (SNP) has pledged to table
at least 50 amendments to the bill and Labour have
expressed its intention to amend the bill to ensure full
parliamentary scrutiny of the exit process.
Ireland and Northern Ireland
The Irish Government is undertaking a campaign of
information and publicity designed to put the issue
of Northern Ireland high on the agenda as the start of
Brexit negotiations approaches. The Taoiseach and
BREXIT BRIEF | Jan 2017
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senior Ministers have been in direct contact with their
counterparts in the EU 27 and a visit to Dublin by Prime
Minister May will be a crucial opportunity for discussion
of issues raised directly in her Lancaster House speech.
In her speech to Lancaster House, setting out the United
Kingdoms negotiating priorities, the Prime Minister made
specific reference to the fact that as the UK leaves it will
share a land border with the EU. Mrs May emphasised
that maintaining the Common Travel Area with the
Republic of Ireland will be an important priority for the
UK in the talks ahead.
The Irish Government welcomed the greater clarity on
the proposed approach of the British Government to the
Brexit negotiation process. It also welcomed the inclusion
of a commitment to find solutions for the common
travel area and to avoid a return to a hard border with
Northern Ireland in her priorities. For more on Mrs Mays
withdrawal framework and its implications for Ireland,
see this IIEA blog, and the recent IIEA Brexit Insight.
Irish officials from a number of Government Departments
have held meetings with the European Commission Brexit
Unit to discuss the future of the Common Travel Area
and the implications of Brexit for customs arrangements
between Ireland and the UK. Former Taoiseach John
Bruton dismissed the much-discussed example of existing
arrangements between Norway and Sweden as a possible
example to follow in this regard, citing historical reasons.
The Irish Times reported that the Irish Government seeks
a commitment from Europe on the swift EU admittance
for Northern Ireland in the event of Irish unity in coming
years. One example is the admittance of East Germany to
the EU after the collapse of the communist regime and
German reunification, an example Taoiseach Enda Kenny
has previously cited.
Economic fallout from a hard Brexit
The Department of Finance informed an Oireachtas
Committee that research carried out by the Department
and the Economic and Social Research Institute points to
damaging fallout from a hard Brexit. The Departments
chief economist, John McCarthy, spoke of job losses of
up to 40,000 and a reduction of nearly a third in exports
to the UK. The ESRI paper Irelands Economic Outlook:
Perspectives and Policy Challenges details the results of
the economic modelling exercise which produced those
As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole
responsibility of the author.
BREXIT BRIEF | Jan 2017
predictions.
Ibec voiced its concerns at the increasingly definitive
and hard line position of the UK government to Brexit
following Theresa Mays speech at Lancaster House. Ibec
noted the serious disruption to trade between Northern
Ireland and the Republic that could result from a UK
departure from the Customs Union, adding that it could
deeply damage UK-Irish economic relations.
Also in response to Mays Lancaster speech, the British-
Irish Chamber of Commerce noted Irelands large
dependence on UK trade compared with other EU
countries and stressed that in light of such dependence,
it is only right that the EU understands the importance
of this relationship for both islands.
An extensive report from the Institute of Directors in
Ireland concludes that the consensus among business
leaders is that Brexit is not a positive development for
the UK or for Ireland and it will negatively impact the
Irish economy. The report comments that the imminent
nature of Brexit, according to a significant share of the
survey group, makes clear the perception that Brexit is a
heavy-duty force, which is bound to create waves sooner
rather than later.
In Brussels: welcome clarity on the UKs position
The European Council President Donald Tusk commented
to the European Parliament on 18 January 2017 that
Mrs Mays speech was proof that Westminster finally
understood and accepted the position of the 27 Member
States on the indivisibility of the Single Market. Mr Tusk
noted, however, that it would be beneficial if the UK
Government also understood that there will be no place
for pick-and-choose tactics in our future negotiations.
Mr Tusk also welcomed the warm and balanced words of
Prime Minister May on European integration, likening
them to the position of Winston Churchill, noting in
them a contrast to the position of the then American
President-elect Donald Trump.
The Commissions chief negotiator with the UK over
Brexit, Michel Barnier, responded to the Prime Ministers
Lancaster House speech by repeating his position that
agreement on orderly exit is prerequisite for future
partnership. Following discussions with MEPs on the
evolving situation, Mr Barnier indicated that the EU
needs a deal to avoid financial instability. This could
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require a deal on access to the financial services of the
City of London.
The most recent European Council meeting took place
in Brussels on 15 December 2016. The agenda covered
a range of routine issues migration, Ukraine, security
and defence and the European Strategic Investment Fund.
Prime Minister Theresa May attended the meeting and
reported on it to the House of Commons, stating that she
had briefed the leaders on her timeline on Article 50. An
informal meeting of the Heads of State or Government
of the 27 took place over dinner, which Mrs May did not
attend, where a brief statement on Brexit reiterated the
position that negotiations could start as soon as the UK
triggers Article 50.
Section Two: The Evolving Debate
Exiting the European Union Committee
The House of Commons Exiting the European Union
Committee launched its first report on 11 January 2017
entitled The process for exiting the European Union
and the Governments negotiating objectives. The
report contains as many as thirty detailed comments and
recommendations on what the Government must do
before triggering Article 50. It underlined the need for
clarity on the Governments plan and recommended full
debate on the proposed Great Repeal Bill. Moreover, the
report underlined the need to ensure UK-Irish relations
and stability in Northern Ireland and the Good Friday
Agreement are not jeopardised by the UKs exit from the
EU.
House of Lords European Union Committee
The House of Lords European Union Committee has
published six reports on Brexit-related issues. The 6th
Report dealt with UK-Irish Relations, arguing that all
parties to the negotiations need to give official recognition
to the special, unique nature of UK-Irish relations in their
entirety, including the position of Northern Ireland.
Irelands need for new EU relationships
In an opinion piece in The Irish Times on 9 January 2017,
Commissioner Phil Hogan argued that while the UK has
always been a sympathetic ally for Ireland at EU level,
it is time for Ireland to stand alone and make its own
relationships within the Union.
At the IIEAs launch of their Brexit Status Report,
As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole
responsibility of the author.
BREXIT BRIEF | Jan 2017
Catherine Day, Former Secretary General of the European
Commission struck a simillar note saying that the UKs
impending departure from the union would deprive
Dublin of an important ally and force it to rethink its
approach to European integration. She also remarked that
Ireland had become over-reliant on trading and other
relationships with English-speaking countries and this
would have to change.
Labour on Brexit
Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the Labour Party, affirmed that
Labour respects the result of the referendum and the
will of the British people, and confirmed that his party
will not frustrate the process for invoking Article 50.
Mr Corbyn has imposed a three-line whip on his party to
vote in favour of the bill. However, Mr Corbyn also stated
that his party would seek to amend the Article 50 Bill to
prevent the Conservatives using Brexit to turn Britain into
a bargain basement tax haven off the coast of Europe.
Speaking at a Labour Party conference on Brexit on 13
December 2016, Hilary Benn MP, Chairman of the House
of Commons Exiting the European Union Committee,
said that the UKs negotiating approach to leaving the
EU would fully take into account the importance of its
relationship with Ireland. Any agreement should uphold
and respect the Good Friday Agreement.
Toward Valletta
The Heads of State or Government of the 27 will meet
in Valletta on 3 February 2017 as a follow-up of the
Bratislava summit in September 2016 which initiated a
political reflection on the future of the European Union,
as discussed in an IIEA blog by Tony Brown, Bratislava
to Rome on 14 December 2016). The President of the
European Council, Donald Tusk, wrote to the leaders
outlining his wish for the summit to lead to the renewing
of trust and confidence in the European Union.
A Visitor to Dublin
The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond,
met the Minister for Finance, Michael Noonan, in Dublin
on 9 January 2017 to discuss the post-Brexit relationship
between the Republic and the UK. Minister Noonan
commented that they had engaged constructively on
Irelands enduring relationship with the UK and on the
many areas of common interest that our two countries
share.
European Trade Union Confederation
The European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) has
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adopted a major Statement on the Bratislava Declaration
and Roadmap arguing that these statements were as
notable for what they do not say, as for the few vague
things they do say. The statement concluded with the
following:
... the ETUC believes that the decisions timetabled
in the Roadmap could still remedy the crises facing
Europe if EU leaders show more unity and higher
ambition for a more Social Europe.
Scottish Government Policy Paper
The Scottish Government published a fifty-page Policy
Paper, Scotlands Place in Europe, exploring the
possibility of a common ground with the UK Government
around a solution that would protect Scotlands place in
the European Single Market from within the UK.
Section Three: Relevant Research and Events
Recent IIEA Events and Publications
Brexit: A Status Report (Publication Launch), Dith
Ceallaigh et al., 18 January 2017, at 12.45p.m.
This new IIEA publication, entitled Brexit: A Status
Report, aims to provide a comprehensive update on what
is known about the process and implications of Brexit,
and highlight issues of concern for all parties to the
negotiations.
Speakers at this launch event included Dith Ceallaigh,
Former Irish Ambassador in London and Chair of the
IIEAs UK expert group; Catherine Day, Special Adviser
to Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European
Commission; Tom Arnold, Director General of the IIEA;
and John Palmer, Founder of the European Policy Centre
and former European Editor of The Guardian.
The IIEAs Brexit: A Status Report is available to
download here.
Other Relevant Publications
Brexit: Six Months On, UK in a Changing Europe,
December 2016.
The team at UK in a Changing Europe in collaboration
with the UK Political Studies Association, has published
Brexit: Six Months On, a collection of twelve essays
on aspects of Brexit, including Public Opinion, the EU
As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole
responsibility of the author.
BREXIT BRIEF | Jan 2017
Budget and the Politics of Brexit.
Brexit: The Key Issues, Irish Congress of Trade Unions
Briefing, Winter 2016.
The Irish Congress of Trade Unions Winter 2016
Congress Briefing is devoted to the key issues arising from
the Brexit decision. The paper covers Workers Rights
and Protections, Jobs and Employment, Trade, Free
Movement, EU Funding and the implications for the
Good Friday Agreement. As an all-Ireland body, the ICTU
comments that it is deeply concerned that a UK exit
from the European Union will have significant, enduring
negative consequences for the all the people of the island.
The paper concludes with a call to both the UK and Irish
Governments to bring unions and employers together
to develop an early warning system that would identify
at risk sectors and enterprise and establish appropriate
retraining resources and systems.
Making a Success of Brexit: A whole-economy view of the
UK-EU negotiations, Confederation of British Industry,
21 December 2016.
The Confederation of British Industry has produced
a report, Making a Success of Brexit, setting out six
principles which should guide the UKs negotiation
covering such issues as trade, regulation, migration, global
economic relationships, EU funding and the importance
of a smooth exit from the EU.
Future Proof: Britain in the 2020s, Mathew Lawence,
IPPR, 29 December 2016.
The IPPR paper Future Proof: Britain in the 2020s listed
five major disruptive forces driving change in the 2020s
and ten major challenges by 2030, concluding that Britain
was likely to see political aftershocks of Brexit, such as
growing inequalities in political voice, pressure against
institutions of representative democracy and bumpy
devolution.
The Impact of Brexit on Northern Ireland: a first look,
Filippo Biondi and Ins Goncalves Raposo, Bruegel, 22
December 2016.
The Brussels-based Bruegel institute has published a blog
on the impact of Brexit Northern Ireland. It concluded
that given its border with Ireland, Northern Ireland could
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have more to lose from a bad arrangement with the EU
than any other part of the UK.
Section Four: Background Material and Further
Reading
Background Material
Prime Minister Theresa May Speech at Lancaster
House, 17 January 2017. (www.gov.uk/governmet/
speeches)
Government of Ireland Statement on Brexit, 17 January
2017. (www.taoiseach.gov.ie)
UK Supreme Court Judgment Given on 24 January
2017. (www.supremecourt.uk)
UK Supreme Court Press Summary of Judgment, 24
January 2017. (www.supremecourt.uk)
Department of Finance Statement of Strategy 2016-
2019. (www.finance.gov.ie)
Economic and Social Research Institute Irelands
Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges,
December 2016. (www.esri.ie)
President Donald Tusk Report to European Parliament,
18 January 2017. (www.consilium.europa.ei)
European Council Conclusions of European Council
meeting, 15 December 2016. (www.consilium.europa.eu)
European Council Informal Meeting of the Heads of
State or Government of 27 Member States, Brussels, 15
December 2016. (www.consilium.europa.eu)
House of Lords Brexit: UK-Irish Relations. 6th Report
of Session 2016-17. (www.parliament.uk/business/lords)
House of Lords Brexit: financial services. 9th Report
of Session 2016-17. (www.parliament.uk/business/lords)
House of Lords Brexit: the options for trade. 5th Report
of Session 2016-17. (www.parliament.uk/business/lords)
House of Commons The process for exiting the
European Union and the Governments negotiating
objectives. Exiting the European Union Committee, 11
January 2017. (www.parliament.uk/exeucom)
House of Commons The Governments Plan for Brexit.
Opposition Day Debate, 7 December 2016. (www.
hansard.parliament.uk/commons)
As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole
responsibility of the author.
BREXIT BRIEF | Jan 2017
House of Commons Statement by the Prime Minister
on European Council meeting, 19 December 2016.
(www.hansard.parliament.uk/commons)
House of Commons. Liaison Committee. Oral Evidence:
The Prime Minister. 20 December 2016. (www.hansard.
parliament.uk/commons)
Labour Party UK Speech by Party Leader, Jeremy
Corbyn MP, in Peterborough, 10 January 2017. (www.
labour.org.uk)
Scottish Government Scotlands Place in Europe.
Edinburgh, December 2016. (www.gov.scot)
European Parliament Monetary Dialogue, November
2016. Brexit Possible Economic Impact on the Euro
Area and the EU. (www.europarl.europa.eu/supporting-
analyses)
Taoiseach Enda Kenny Address to EMI European of the
Year Award event, Dublin,, 12 December 2016. (www.
taoiseach.gov.ie)
Charlie Flanagan TD Address by the Minister for
Foreign Affairs to the European Movement Ireland, 15
December 2016. (www.dfa.ie)
Charlie Flanagan TD Interview with Irish Times, 24
December 2016. (www.irishtimes.com)
Micheal Martin TD Brexit and the Future of the
European Union. Speech at IIEA, 7 December 2016.
(www.fiannafail.ie)
Brendan Howlin TD Address to Labour/PES Brexit
Seminar, Dublin, 13 December 2016. (www.labour.ie)
Gerry Adams TD Brexit requires an Irish Solution to a
British Problem. Sinn Fein, 9 December 2016. (www.
sinnfein.ie)
Commissioner Phil Hogan Now is the time to cut our
ties with Brexiting Britain. Irish Times, 9 January 2017.
(www.irishtimes.com)
Sinn Fein The Case for the North to Achieve Designated
Special Status Within the EU, 8 November, 2016. (www.
sinnfein.ie)
Ulster Unionist Party A Vision for Northern Ireland
outside the EU. Policy Paper, September 2016. (www.
uup.org)
Paul Nuttall MEP Statement by the UKIP Leader, 20
December 2016. (www.ukip.org)
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European Trade Union Confederation ETUC Institute of Economic Affairs IEA A Blueprint for
Statement on Bratislava Summit, 23 September 2016. Britain: Openness not Isolation, by Iain Mansfield.
(www.etuc.org/documents/eu-summit-bratislava) Winner of the Brexit Prize 2014. (www.iea.org.uk)
Institute for Public Policy Research IPPR Future Federal Trust Mrs May Answers the Questions with the
Proof: Britain in the 2020s. IPPR report, December Worst Possible Answers. Blogh, 17 January 2017. (www.
2016. (www.ippr.org) fedtrust.co.uk)
Financial Times Memo of meeting between Secretary Centre for European Reform What Free Movement
Davis and City of London representatives, 15 November Means to Europe and Why It Matters for Britain. CER,
2016. (www.ft.com) January 2017. (www.cer.org.uk)
Financial Times Preserving the special Anglo-Irish The Guardian Editorial, 17 January 2017. (www.
relationship. FT View, 13 December 2016. (www. theguardian.com)
ft.com)
Financial Times FT View, 18 January 2017. (www.
Centre for European Reform. Brexit and the Economics ft.com)
of Populism. Conference Report, November 2016.
The Telegraph Telegraph View, 17 January 2017. (www.
(www.cer.org.uk)
telegraph.co.uk)
Institute for International Political Studies ISPI
Open Europe Response to Lancaster House Speech, 17
Europe 2017: Make it or Break it? Policy Brief no.232,
October 2017. (www.openeurope.org.uk)
January 2017. (www.ispionline.it)
Charles Grant What does Theresa Mays speech tell
Institute of Directors in Ireland Brexit: The Potential
us about how Britain will leave the EU? Centre for
Implications, 15 December 2016. (www.iodireland.ie)
European Reform. 17 January 2017. (www.cer.org.uk)
IBEC Statement by IBEC Chief Executive, Danny
Tony Connolly Brexit phoney war ends long campaign
McCoy, 17 January 2017. (www.irishyimes.com)
begins RTE, 17 January 2017. (www.rte.ie)
Irish Congress of Trade Unions. Brexit: The Key Issues.
Congress Briefing Winter 2016. (www.ictu.ie)
Further Reading
British Irish Chamber of Commerce Reaction to PM
Theresa Mays Brexit Statement, 17 January 2017. (www. Ernst B. Haas The Uniting of Europe. University of
britishirishchamber.com) Notre Dame Press.
Polish Institute of International Affairs PISM The Roger Broad Labours European Dilemmas. London,
Visegrad Group from Hungarys Perspective. Bulletin, 13 Palgrave
December 2016. (www.pism.pl)
Ken Clarke Kind of Blue. A Political Memoir. London,
Political Studies Association Brexit: Six Months On. Macmillan.
Report, 22 December 2016. (www.psa.ac.uk)
Michael D. Higgins When Ideas Matter. London,
Andrew Duff Brexit: A lead from the Lords. The Federal Head of Zeus.
Trust, 20 December 2016. (www.fedtrust,co.uk)
Guy Verhofstadt The United States of Europe. London,
Bruegel The Impact of Brexit on Northern Ireland: A The Federal Trust.
first look. Bruegel Blog Post, 22 December 2016. (www.
Craig Oliver Unleashing Demons. The Inside Story of
bruegel.org)
Brexit. London, Hodder and Stoughton
European Council on Foreign Relations ECFR UK
Brexit debate still missing the point. Commentary, 16
December 2016. (www.ecfr.eu)
Confederation of British Industry CBI. Making a
Success of Brexit. A Whole-Economy View of the UK-
EU Negotiations, December 2016. (www.cbi.org)

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole
responsibility of the author.