A VOLUMETRIC PRIMER

Recoverable Oil

Oil
0,3 Mm3
(1.9 Mb)

RF Oil = 0.3

1
Mm3
1,3
1,75 Mm3 Mm3
GRV: 10 Mm3 7 Mm3
FVF = 1/Bo = 0.75

(1 km x 1 km x 10 m)
So = 0.75

PHI = 0.25
N/G = 0.7
STOIIP= GRV x N/G x PHI x So x FVF
1
 EARTH MODELLING AND
QUANTIFICATION OF RESERVOIR UNCERTAINTIES

Geometry Impact on GRV!

Static properties Impact on OIP!

Dynamic properties Impact on Reserves!

 VOLUME CALCULATION BY MONTE CARLO

GRV N/G F So RF

RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR

RESERVES

RESERVES= GRV x N/G x F x So x RECOVERY FACTOR

= STOOIP x RF
 DEFINITIONS
REPORTING USED WHEN
RESERVES: REPORTING
A FORMAL EXERCISE (2)
PROBABILISTIC RESERVES

1 cdf
0.9 PROVEN+PROBABLE+POSSIBLE (P10=Q90=3P)
( Less Likely Than Not )
0.8

0.7
Cumulative probability

0.6

0.5 PROVEN+PROBABLE (P50=Q50=2P)

( More Likely Than Not )
0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1 PROVEN (P90=Q10=1P) pdf

( Reasonable Certainty )
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Reserves (MMBOE)
 UNCERTAINTY AND THE SUPPORT EFFECT

GRV N/G F So RF

WHICH
HISTOGRAM TO
USE?
STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY ISSUES
THE SUPPORT EFFECT
TORNADO CHARTS

Values taken by
Recoverable Volume

1,21 2,09

Q10 and Q90 of each

variable