Chase Vernon

Case 5
From the time series analysis I have completed for the Vintage Restaurant,

we can see that there is heavy seasonality and gradual increasing trend. The best

sales come from winter months and as summer kicks into full swing, sales decline.

This is seasonality and we know from past data that even

Year 4
though
Month Sales sales will fall to lower points during the summer,
_______ _______
they _ _ will without a doubt rise again as fall and winter
Jan 286.75
begin. Feb 267.0833 I was able to forecast the next years sales based on
Mar 272.4167
the seasonality and trend in the given data as follows.
Apr 216.4167
May 220.0833
Jun 174.0833
Jul 180.4167
Aug 186.75
Sep 143.75
Oct 160.4167
Nov 188.4167
Dec 248.0833

From the above data we can see that sales will be at its highest during

January and lowest during September. There is an upward trend in the data and as

a result we predict that the sales during January will be the highest sales in Vintage

Restaurants history. We use MSE to predict within what range of error we are and

we believe we are within 18.4 of the correct sales amount.