2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014

CONJUNTOS Datos 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
BESTA M Vta. Uu. 12 28 36 80 69 37 57 38
BLOSOOM M Vta. Uu. 21 37 29 31 25 16 38 42
CLAY MESA Vta. Uu. 3 3 4 10 6 9 24 10
HOUSTON MESA Vta. Uu. 75 62 5 89 131 102 183 58
ISAAC MESA Vta. Uu. 10 10 11 9 12 13 40 10
ISIDORA Vta. Uu. 368 6 519 849 401 261 473 426
KEA MESA Vta. Uu. 17 18 19 38 17 22 25 9
MAZZARO M Vta. Uu. 9 17 69 10 57 33 101 82
LINEAR MESA Vta. Uu. 117 76 67 88 100 75 138 112
MARTINI MESA Vta. Uu. 62 37 30 47 30 15 25 34
NAIROBI MESA Vta. Uu. 20 36 48 89 22 20 44 44
SAKAI MESA Vta. Uu. 26 28 34 42 32 19 33 29
TANAKA MESA Vta. Uu. 19 16 17 20 18 17 48 40
2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015
09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06
45 46 36 51 40 35 49 55 64 43
31 47 22 39 35 28 32 40 23 21
8 5 4 6 2 2 3 8 5 7
23 103 135 114 14 44 92 22 37 54
14 11 6 8 8 8 9 7 10 11
410 491 495 840 426 589 559 684 436 325
22 33 33 45 37 19 31 25 21 17
45 12 19 45 23 13 62 37 6 10
114 110 142 203 89 117 98 132 75 59
34 45 52 136 62 37 41 38 53 16
38 30 44 61 38 24 36 30 15 19
31 28 33 64 40 37 34 34 20 17
45 ### 39 67 37 32 34 43 36 31
2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016
07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04
38 28 16 19 19 29 35 59 75 103
32 47 19 28 24 68 32 42 34 49
19 8 6 4 3 5 8 8 9 14
69 45 52 71 82 125 87 71 29 2
38 8 12 9 4 6 5 5 6 9
502 395 350 535 462 907 266 164 264 487
6 5 11 17 17 23 19 10 16 14
10 18 21 17 15 25 23 21 35 30
70 55 57 75 58 104 88 103 65 70
20 27 27 36 42 109 15 14 31 60
32 25 21 23 11 16 9 9 24 61
12 15 11 13 12 31 18 16 10 17
39 35 24 39 38 109 43 49 31 10
2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
11 26 52 38 38 44 24 33
34 19 29 42 17 25 22 61
12 5 8 6 7 6 5 7
6 36 137 6 31 72 95 133
15 12 20 15 23 18 8 11
437 306 527 369 329 352 318 445
14 5 13 8 15 6 10 14
35 9 26 12 11 26 26 36
50 41 78 53 42 56 38 53
50 18 54 46 50 32 37 98
51 26 57 31 19 21 10 14
7 2 15 12 13 5 7 9
4 29 72 54 63 47 43 60
 CONJUNTOS BESTA M BLOSOOM M CLAY MESA
Datos Vta. Uu. Vta. Uu. Vta. Uu.
2014 Ene 2014-Ene 12 21 3
2014 Feb 2014-Feb 28 37 3
2014 Mar 2014-Mar 36 29 4
2014 Abr 2014-Abr 80 31 10
2014 May 2014-May 69 25 6
2014 Jun 2014-Jun 37 16 9
2014 Jul 2014-Jul 57 38 24
2014 Ago 2014-Ago 38 42 10
2014 Sep 2014-Sep 45 31 8
2014 Oct 2014-Oct 46 47 5
2014 Nov 2014-Nov 36 22 4
2014 Dic 2014-Dic 51 39 6
2015 Ene 2015-Ene 40 35 2
2015 Feb 2015-Feb 35 28 2
2015 Mar 2015-Mar 49 32 3
2015 Abr 2015-Abr 55 40 8
2015 May 2015-May 64 23 5
2015 Jun 2015-Jun 43 21 7
2015 Jul 2015-Jul 38 32 19
2015 Ago 2015-Ago 28 47 8
2015 Sep 2015-Sep 16 19 6
2015 Oct 2015-Oct 19 28 4
2015 Nov 2015-Nov 19 24 3
2015 Dic 2015-Dic 29 68 5
2016 Ene 2016-Ene 35 32 8
2016 Feb 2016-Feb 59 42 8
2016 Mar 2016-Mar 75 34 9
2016 Abr 2016-Abr 103 49 14
2016 May 2016-May 11 34 12
2016 Jun 2016-Jun 26 19 5
2016 Jul 2016-Jul 52 29 8
2016 Ago 2016-Ago 38 42 6
2016 Sep 2016-Sep 38 17 7
2016 Oct 2016-Oct 44 25 6
2016 Nov 2016-Nov 24 22 5
2016 Dic 2016-Dic 33 61 7
HOUSTON MESA ISAAC MESA ISIDORA KEA MESA MAZZARO M LINEAR MESA
Vta. Uu. Vta. Uu. Vta. Uu. Vta. Uu. Vta. Uu. Vta. Uu.
75 10 368 17 9 117
62 10 400 18 17 76
5 11 519 19 69 67
89 9 849 38 10 88
131 12 401 17 57 100
102 13 261 22 33 75
183 40 473 25 101 138
58 10 426 9 82 112
23 14 410 22 45 114
103 11 491 33 12 110
135 6 495 33 19 142
114 8 840 45 45 203
14 8 426 37 23 89
44 8 589 19 13 117
92 9 559 31 62 98
22 7 684 25 37 132
37 10 436 21 6 75
54 11 325 17 10 59
69 38 502 6 10 70
45 8 395 5 18 55
52 12 350 11 21 57
71 9 535 17 17 75
82 4 462 17 15 58
125 6 907 23 25 104
87 5 266 19 23 88
71 5 164 10 21 103
29 6 264 16 35 65
2 9 487 14 30 70
6 15 437 14 35 50
36 12 306 5 9 41
137 20 527 13 26 78
6 15 369 8 12 53
31 23 329 15 11 42
72 18 352 6 26 56
95 8 318 10 26 38
133 11 445 14 36 53
MARTINI MESA NAIROBI MESA SAKAI MESA TANAKA MESA
Vta. Uu. Vta. Uu. Vta. Uu. Vta. Uu.
62 20 26 19
37 36 28 16
30 48 34 17
47 89 42 20
30 22 32 18
15 20 19 17
25 44 33 48
34 44 29 40
34 38 31 45
45 30 28 45
52 44 33 39
136 61 64 67
62 38 40 37
37 24 37 32
41 36 34 34
38 30 34 43
53 15 20 36
16 19 17 31
20 32 12 39
27 25 15 35
27 21 11 24
36 23 13 39
42 11 12 38
109 16 31 109
15 9 18 43
14 9 16 49
31 24 10 31
60 61 17 10
50 51 7 4
18 26 2 29
54 57 15 72
46 31 12 54
50 19 13 63
32 21 5 47
37 10 7 43
98 14 9 60
 BESTA M BLOSOOM M CLAY MESAHOUSTON MEISAAC MESA ISIDORA
2014-Ene 12 21 2 75 10 368
2014-Feb 28 37 2 62 10 400
2014-Mar 36 29 3 5 11 519
2014-Abr 80 31 10 89 9 849
2014-May 69 25 6 131 12 401
2014-Jun 37 16 8 102 13 261
2014-Jul 57 38 23 183 40 473
2014-Ago 38 42 10 58 9 426
2014-Sep 45 31 7 23 13 410
2014-Oct 46 47 5 103 11 491
2014-Nov 36 22 3 135 6 495
2014-Dic 51 39 6 114 7 840
2015-Ene 40 35 2 14 8 426
2015-Feb 35 28 2 44 8 589
2015-Mar 49 32 3 92 9 559
2015-Abr 55 40 8 22 7 684
2015-May 64 23 5 37 10 436
2015-Jun 43 21 7 54 11 325
2015-Jul 38 32 19 69 38 502
2015-Ago 28 47 8 45 7 395
2015-Sep 16 19 6 52 11 350
2015-Oct 19 28 4 71 9 535
2015-Nov 19 24 3 82 4 462
2015-Dic 29 68 5 125 5 907
2016-Ene 35 32 8 87 5 266
2016-Feb 59 42 8 71 5 164
2016-Mar 75 34 9 29 6 264
2016-Abr 103 49 14 2 9 487
2016-May 11 34 12 6 15 437
2016-Jun 26 18 5 36 12 306
2016-Jul 52 28 8 137 20 527
2016-Ago 38 42 6 6 15 369
2016-Sep 38 17 7 31 23 329
2016-Oct 44 25 6 72 18 352
2016-Nov 24 21 5 95 8 318
2016-Dic 33 61 7 133 11 445
1508 1178 252 2492 425 16367
5% 4% 1% 8% 1% 51%
KEA MESA MAZZARO M LINEAR MESA MARTINI MESA NAIROBI MESA
17 9 117 62 20
18 17 76 37 36
19 69 67 30 48
38 10 88 47 89
17 57 100 30 22
22 33 75 15 20
25 101 138 25 44
9 82 112 34 44
22 45 114 34 38
33 12 110 45 30
33 19 142 52 44
45 45 203 136 61
37 23 89 62 38
19 13 117 37 24
31 62 98 41 36
25 37 132 38 30
21 6 75 53 15
17 10 59 16 19
6 10 70 20 32
4 18 55 27 25
11 21 57 27 21
16 17 75 36 23
16 15 58 41 11
22 25 104 108 16
18 23 88 15 9
9 21 103 14 9
15 35 65 31 24
14 30 70 60 61
14 35 50 50 51
5 9 41 18 26
13 26 78 54 57
8 12 53 46 31
15 11 42 50 18
6 26 56 32 20
10 26 38 37 9
14 36 53 97 14
664 1046 3068 1557 1115
2% 3% 10% 5% 3%
SAKAI MESA TANAKA MESA
26 18
28 16
34 17
42 20
32 18
19 17
33 48
29 40
31 45
28 45
33 39
64 67
40 37
37 32
34 34 x
34 43 COLIN M
20 36 CLAY MESA
17 31 ATELIER MESA
12 39 CONTEMPO MESA
15 35 SAKAI MESA
11 24 LOUVRE M
13 39 MARRIE M
12 38 COOPER M
31 109 KEA MESA
18 43 LINEAR MESA
16 49 BLOSOOM M
10 31 TRENTO M
17 10 TANAKA MESA
7 4 BESTA M
2 29 HOUSTON MESA
15 72 ISAAC MESA
12 54 ISIDORA
13 63 MARTINI MESA
5 47 MAZZARO M
7 43 MESA NEW BARCELONA
9 60 NAIROBI MESA
806 1392 31870
3% 4%
 180 450 450 0.96%
252 302.4 302 0.64%
111 222 222 0.47%
134 268 268 0.57%
806 967.2 967 2.05%
200 204 204 0.43%
325 650 650 1.38%
412 865.2 865 1.84%
664 1328 1328 2.82%
3068 3835 3835 8.14%
1178 1413.6 1413 3.00%
230 460 460 0.98%
1392 1670.4 3670 7.79%
1508 3016 3016 6.40%
2492 4984 4984 10.58%
425 1275 1275 2.71%
16367 11456.9 11456 24.32%
1557 3114 4314 9.16%
1046 1255.2 1255 2.66%
4703 2821.8 2821 5.99%
1115 3345 3345 7.10%
38165 47100
xx xxx xxx
BESTA M 1508 5%
BLOSOOM M 1178 4%
CLAY MESA 252 1%
HOUSTON ME 2492 8%
ISAAC MESA 425 1%
ISIDORA 16367 51%
KEA MESA 664 2%
LINEAR MESA 3068 10%
MARTINI MES 1557 5%
MAZZARO M 1046 3%
NAIROBI MES 1115 3%
SAKAI MESA 806 3%
TANAKA MESA 1392 4%
Forecasting results for BLOSOOM M Date Observation SmLevel
1 21.000
Winters' exponential smoothing 2 37.000
3 29.000
Smoothing constant(s) 4 31.000
Level 0.000 5 25.000
Trend 0.406 6 16.000
Seasonality 0.838 7 38.000
8 42.000
Estimation period 9 31.000
10 47.000
MAE 7.7464 11 22.000
RMSE 9.8363 12 39.000 31.500
MAPE 24.29% 13 35.000 31.632
14 28.000 31.764
15 32.000 31.896
16 40.000 32.028
17 23.000 32.160
18 21.000 32.292
19 32.000 32.424
20 47.000 32.556
21 19.000 32.688
22 28.000 32.819
23 24.000 32.951
24 68.000 33.083
25 32.000 33.215
26 42.000 33.347
27 34.000 33.479
28 49.000 33.611
29 34.000 33.743
30 18.000 33.875
31 28.000 34.007
32 42.000 34.139
33 17.000 34.271
34 25.000 34.403
35 21.000 34.535
36 61.000 34.667
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
 45
46
47
48

Forecast errors for BLOSOOM M

30.000

20.000

10.000

0.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

-10.000

-20.000

-30.000

Time
SmTrend SmSeason Forecast Error
0.667
1.175
0.921
0.984 80.000
0.794
70.000
0.508
1.206 60.000
1.333
0.984 50.000
1.492
40.000
0.698
0.132 1.238 30.000
0.132 1.035 21.088 13.912
0.132 0.929 37.310 -9.310 20.000
0.132 0.990 29.364 2.636
10.000
0.132 1.206 31.519 8.481
0.132 0.728 25.524 -2.524 0.000
0.132 0.627 16.402 4.598 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0.132 1.022 39.114 -7.114
0.132 1.426 43.407 3.593
0.132 0.646 32.169 -13.169
0.132 0.957 48.969 -20.969
0.132 0.724 23.014 0.986
0.132 1.923 40.960 27.040 Tim
0.132 0.975 34.388 -2.388
0.132 1.206 30.977 11.023 80.000
0.132 1.011 33.141 0.859
70.000
0.132 1.417 40.537 8.463
0.132 0.962 24.561 9.439 60.000
0.132 0.547 21.249 -3.249
0.132 0.856 34.770 -6.770 50.000
0.132 1.262 48.676 -6.676
40.000
0.132 0.520 22.155 -5.155
0.132 0.764 32.908 -7.908 30.000
0.132 0.627 24.986 -3.986
0.132 1.786 66.669 -5.669 20.000
33.930 10.000
42.126
35.462 0.000
49.874 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
33.996
19.392
30.450
45.078
 18.658
27.489
22.637
64.745

BLOSOOM M

19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
 Time series of BLOSOOM M

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 3

Time

Time series of BLOSOOM M with forecasts superimposed

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748

Time
5 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

perimposed

Observation
Forecast

839404142434445464748
Forecasting results for BESTA M Date Observation
1 12.000
Winters' exponential smoothing 2 28.000
3 36.000
Smoothing constant(s) 4 80.000
Level 0.100 5 69.000
Trend 0.100 6 37.000
Seasonality 0.100 7 57.000
8 38.000
Estimation period 9 45.000
10 46.000
MAE 19.1421 11 36.000
RMSE 25.1561 12 51.000
MAPE 74.63% 13 40.000
14 35.000
15 49.000
Time
16 series
55.000of BESTA M
17 64.000
120.000
18 43.000
19 38.000
100.000 20 28.000
21 16.000
80.000 22 19.000
23 19.000
60.000 24 29.000
25 35.000
40.000 26 59.000
27 75.000
28 103.000
20.000
29 11.000
30 26.000
0.000
31 52.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
32 38.000
33 38.000
Time
34 44.000
35 24.000
36 33.000
Time series of BESTA
37 M with forecasts super
38
120.000
39
40
100.000 41
42
80.000 43
44
60.000

40.000
100.000

80.000

60.000 45
46
40.000 47
48

20.000

0.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637

Time

Forecast errors for BESTA M

60.000

40.000

20.000

0.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
-20.000

-40.000

-60.000

-80.000

Time
 SmLevel SmTrend SmSeason Forecast Error
0.269
0.628
0.807
1.794
1.548
0.830
1.279
0.852
1.009
1.032
0.807
44.583 -0.694 1.144
54.361 0.353 0.316 11.813 28.187
54.815 0.363 0.629 34.362 0.638
55.729 0.418 0.815 44.555 4.445
eries of BESTA M
53.597 0.163 1.718 100.749 -45.749
52.519 0.039 1.515 83.203 -19.203
52.484 0.031 0.829 43.619 -0.619
50.236 -0.196 1.226 67.141 -29.141
48.321 -0.368 0.825 42.651 -14.651
44.742 -0.689 0.944 48.401 -32.401
41.489 -0.946 0.974 45.453 -26.453
38.842 -1.116 0.776 32.738 -13.738
36.489 -1.240 1.109 43.156 -14.156
42.806 -0.484 0.366 11.133 23.867
47.469 0.031 0.690 26.624 32.376
51.956 0.476 0.878 38.696 36.304
53.186 0.552 1.739 90.056 12.944
49.090 0.087 1.386 81.400 -70.400
47.396 -0.091 0.801 40.760 -14.760
46.815 -0.140 1.215 58.010 -6.010
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
46.613 -0.146 0.824 38.509 -0.509
Time 45.845 -0.208 0.933 43.873 -5.873
45.589 -0.213 0.973 44.468 -0.468
43.932 -0.358 0.753 35.195 -11.195
42.193 -0.496 1.076 48.324 -15.324
M with forecasts superimposed 15.261
28.448
35.721
69.943
55.031
31.406
47.037
31.501
Observation
Forecast
 Observation
35.189
Forecast
36.247
27.654
39.009

24252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748

errors for BESTA M

16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Time
Forecasting results for MAZZARO M Date Observation
1 9.000
Winters' exponential smoothing 2 17.000
3 69.000
Smoothing constant(s) 4 10.000
Level 0.002 5 57.000
Trend 1.000 6 33.000
Seasonality 0.427 7 101.000
8 82.000
Estimation period 9 45.000
10 12.000
MAE 15.9305 11 19.000
RMSE 22.3173 12 45.000
MAPE 107.26% 13 23.000
14 13.000
15 62.000
Time
16 series of MAZZARO M
37.000
120.000 17 6.000
18 10.000
19 10.000
100.000
20 18.000
21 21.000
80.000 22 17.000
23 15.000
60.000 24 25.000
25 23.000
26 21.000
40.000
27 35.000
28 30.000
20.000 29 35.000
30 9.000
31 26.000
0.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 32 14 15 1612.000
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
33 11.000
34 Time
26.000
35 26.000
36 36.000
Time series of MAZZARO
37 M with forecasts sup
38
120.000
39
40
100.000
41
42
80.000
43
44
60.000

40.000
 80.000

60.000
45
46
40.000
47
48
20.000

0.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637
-20.000

Time

Forecast errors for MAZZARO M

40.000

20.000

0.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

-20.000

-40.000

-60.000

-80.000

Time
 SmLevel SmTrend SmSeason Forecast Error
0.216
0.409
1.659
0.240
1.371
0.794
2.429
1.972
1.082
0.289
0.457
41.583 -1.681 1.082
40.019 -1.565 0.369 8.636 14.364
38.442 -1.576 0.379 15.721 -2.721
36.867 -1.575 1.669 61.173 0.827
ries of MAZZARO 35.499M -1.368 0.583 8.487 28.513
34.079 -1.420 0.861 46.784 -40.784
32.623 -1.455 0.586 25.917 -15.917
31.121 -1.503 1.530 75.703 -65.703
29.582 -1.538 1.390 58.405 -40.405
28.029 -1.553 0.940 30.348 -9.348
26.532 -1.497 0.439 7.640 9.360
25.049 -1.483 0.517 11.439 3.561
23.565 -1.484 1.073 25.502 -0.502
22.151 -1.414 0.655 8.155 14.845
20.798 -1.353 0.648 7.853 13.147
19.448 -1.350 1.725 32.452 2.548
18.156 -1.292 1.039 10.543 19.457
16.905 -1.251 1.377 14.520 20.480
15.654 -1.251 0.581 9.170 -0.170
14.408 -1.247 1.647 22.032 3.968
16 17 18 19 20 13.153 -1.254
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 1.186
30 31 32 33 18.297
34 35 36 -6.297
11.899 -1.255 0.933 11.186 -0.186
Time 10.729 -1.170 1.286 4.671 21.329
9.630 -1.099 1.449 4.946 21.054
8.575 -1.055 2.407 9.155 26.845
O M with forecasts superimposed 4.923
4.188
9.330
4.524
4.543
1.304
1.958
0.159
Observation
Forecast
 Observation
-0.860
Forecast
-2.541
-4.391
-9.834

24252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748

rrors for MAZZARO M

16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Time
MES Vta. Uu. CLUSTER MATERIAL MODELO
2014-Ene 991 A MADERA COLIN M
2014-Feb 670 A MADERA CLAY MESA
2014-Mar 1,360 A MADERA ATELIER MES
2014-Abr 1,865 A MADERA CONTEMPO M
2014-May 1,330 B MADERA SAKAI MESA
2014-Jun 859 B METAL LOUVRE M
2014-Jul 1,653 B MADERA MARRIE M
2014-Ago 1,299 B METAL LINEAR MESA
2014-Sep 1,232 B MADERA COOPER M
2014-Oct 1,444 B MADERA KEA MESA
2014-Nov 1,448 C MADERA BLOSOOM M
2014-Dic 2,233 C METAL TRENTO M
2015-Ene 1,202 C METAL TANAKA MESA
2015-Feb 1,308 C MADERA HOUSTON ME
2015-Mar 1,451 C MADERA MAZZARO M
2015-Abr 1,633 C MADERA NAIROBI MES
2015-May 1,303 C METAL ISAAC MESA
2015-Jun 919 C METAL MARTINI MES
2015-Jul 1,297 D MADERA MESA NEW B
2015-Ago 932 D METAL ISIDORA
2015-Sep 799 D MADERA BESTA M
2015-Oct 1,123
2015-Nov 923
2015-Dic 1,772
2016-Ene 921
2016-Feb 914
2016-Mar 881
2016-Abr 1,361
2016-May 1,159
2016-Jun 871
2016-Jul 1,393
2016-Ago 1,119
2016-Sep 757
2016-Oct 880
2016-Nov 903
2016-Dic 1,683
gp tprom CLUSTER
0.15 3,648.56 TIENDA
0.22 3,828.19 MINIMO MODE 3 CUBICAJE
0.27 4,646.37 MINIMO MODE 4
0.28 5,832.65 MINIMO MODE 6
0.20 1,980.34 MINIMO MODE 2
0.17 2,102.35
0.16 2,441.71 MADERA 65%
0.19 2,536.36 METAL 35%
0.12 2,941.04
0.18 3,602.51 MINIMO DE C 75UU
0.27 1,196.27
0.18 1,228.91
0.25 1,231.27
0.14 1,490.98
0.22 1,519.38
0.24 1,626.49
0.17 1,806.69
0.25 1,942.39
0.25 393.53
0.25 538.18
0.15 1,004.28
A A A C B B D C A B B A C C B C C C
101 102 106 201 202 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 303 304 307 309
17 15 3 7 7 8 9 14 9 11 5 4 2 4 4 3 4 2
B C B D D C D D D D
312 320 321 322 323 324 418 419 420 421
4 8 7 8 6 4 1 3 2 4
Forecasting results for Vta. Uu. Date Observation SmLevel
1 991.000
Winters' exponential smoothing 2 670.000
3 1360.000
Smoothing constant(s) 4 1865.000
Level 0.000 5 1330.000
Trend 0.884 6 859.000
Seasonality 0.528 7 1653.000
8 1299.000
Estimation period 9 1232.000
10 1444.000
MAE 182.6356 11 1448.000
RMSE 231.8310 12 2233.000 1365.333
MAPE 16.97% 13 1202.000 1353.375
14 1308.000 1341.417
15 1451.000 1329.458
16 1633.000 1317.500
17 1303.000 1305.542
18 919.000 1293.583
19 1297.000 1281.625
20 932.000 1269.667
21 799.000 1257.708
22 1123.000 1245.750
23 923.000 1233.792
24 1772.000 1221.833
25 921.000 1209.875
26 914.000 1197.917
27 881.000 1185.958
28 1361.000 1174.000
29 1159.000 1162.042
30 871.000 1150.083
31 1393.000 1138.125
32 1119.000 1126.167
33 757.000 1114.208
34 880.000 1102.250
35 903.000 1090.292
36 1683.000 1078.333
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
 45
46
47
48

Forecast errors for Vta. Uu.

800.000

600.000

400.000

200.000

0.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
-200.000

-400.000

-600.000

Time
SmTrend SmSeason Forecast Error
0.726
0.491
0.996
1.366 2500.000
0.974
0.629
1.211 2000.000
0.951
0.902 1500.000
1.058
1.061
-11.958 1.635 1000.000
-11.958 0.811 982.320 219.680
-11.958 0.746 658.264 649.736
500.000
-11.958 1.046 1324.265 126.735
-11.958 1.299 1799.661 -166.661
-11.958 0.987 1271.756 31.244 0.000
-11.958 0.672 813.858 105.142 1 2 3 4 5 6
-11.958 1.106 1551.655 -254.655
-11.958 0.837 1207.981 -275.981
-11.958 0.761 1134.885 -335.885
-11.958 0.975 1317.527 -194.527
-11.958 0.896 1308.494 -385.494
-11.958 1.538 1998.306 -226.306
-11.958 0.785 981.808 -60.808 2500.000
-11.958 0.755 894.064 19.936
-11.958 0.886 1240.991 -359.991
-11.958 1.225 1525.269 -164.269 2000.000
-11.958 0.992 1146.646 12.354
-11.958 0.717 772.909 98.091 1500.000
-11.958 1.168 1258.573 134.427
-11.958 0.920 942.264 176.736
-11.958 0.718 848.359 -91.359 1000.000
-11.958 0.882 1074.922 -194.922
-11.958 0.860 976.521 -73.521
500.000
-11.958 1.550 1658.205 24.795
837.073
796.224 0.000
923.833 1 2 3 4 5 6
1262.736
1010.762
721.779
1161.886
903.586
 697.092
845.501
814.301
1448.882

or Vta. Uu.

19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
 Time series of Vta. Uu.

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

Time

Time series of Vta. Uu. with foreca

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

Time
u.

1 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

of Vta. Uu. with forecasts superimposed

21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

Time
 Observation
Forecast

41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48