Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin May 2010

The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- May 2010
THE GAMBIA MONTHLY

ECONOMIC BULLETIN1
May 2010
Institutional Support Project for Economic and Financial Governance (ISPEFG)

Ministry of Finance (MOF)
The Republic of Gambia
The Quadrangle, Banjul, the Gambia
1
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin provides an update on the recent economic developments and
policies in the Republic of the Gambia. This Bulletin has been prepared, under the overall guidance of the
Honorable Permanent Secretary Mr. Serign Cham, by a research team comprising Tarun Das,
Macroeconomic Adviser (ISPEFG), Momodou Taal, Acting Director and Ms. Ceesay Chiel, Economist in
the Statistics and Special Studies Division, Ministry of Finance; with key inputs from the Central Bank of
Gambia (CBG), the Gambian Bureau of Statistics (GBOS), and the Gambian Revenue Authority (GRA).
It is needless to point out that the views expressed in this Bulletin solely indicate the views of the
Research Team, which need not necessarily imply the views of the MOF, the other budgetary agencies or
the organizations they are associated with.
Any questions and feedback can be addressed to: Tarun Das (das.tarun@hotmail.com)
1
Political and Administrative Structure
The Gambia is divided into seven regions comprising two Municipalities namely, Banjul City
Council (BCC) and the Kanifing Municipal Council (KMC) and five provincial administrative
regions namely, Western Region (WR), North Bank Region (NBR), Lower River Region (LRR),
Central River Region (CRR) and Upper River Region (URR). Politically, the relevant units are
Local Government Areas (urban), Districts, Wards and Villages. The Gambia has 35 districts
and about 1870 villages with an average of 13 compounds.
Basic Facts about Gambia:
Fiscal year: 1st January to 31st December
Items (Year) Units Value Rank in the World
from top
in descending order
Area (2009) Sq. km. 11,300 171 out of 248
countries
Population (2008) Million 1.735 148 out of 241
countries
GDP PPP (2006) Million US$ 2061 184 out of 229
countries
GDP Nominal (2006) Million US$ 511 199 out of 229
countries
GDP PPP per capita (2006) US$ 1921 140 out of 169
countries
GDP per capita (2006) US$ 329 192 out of 207
countries
Poverty Ratio (% of people Percent 59 7 out of 95 countries
below One-US$ per day) (2004)
2
Source: http://www.nationmaster.com
3
Contents
Items Page
Basic Facts about the Gambia 2
Contents 3
ISPEFG Project/ Research Team and Document History 4
Highlights 5-6
At a Glance 7
1. Global Economic Outlook 8-12

1.1Global recovery is stronger than expected but speed is uneven 8
1.2Global iflation pressures are generally subdued but diverge 10
2. Current State of the Gambian Economy 13-29

2.1 Overall and Sectoral GDP Growth Rates 13
2.2 Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation 15
2.3 Projection of CPI inflation for the year 2010 17
2.4 Government Fiscal Performance 18
2.5 Domestic Debt and Outstanding Treasury Bills 20
2.6 Treasury Bills Yields 21
2.7 Money Supply 22
2.8 Performance of Commercial Banks 23
2.9 Commercial Banks’ Assets 24
2.10 Commercial Banks’ Liabilities 25
2.11 Interest Rates and Central Bank’s Policy Rates 26
2.12 BOP, Foreign Exchange Reserves and Exchange Rates 27
2.13 Exchange Rates 29
3. Recent Policy Developments and Development Issues 30-31

3.1 IMF Executive Board Completes Sixth Review of PRGF 30
3.2 Assessment of Quantitative Targets agreed with IMF under PRGF 31
4
ISPEFG Project and Monthly Economic Bulletin Research Team
Project Supervisor Honorable Mr. Serign Cham,

Permanent Secretary
Project Coordinator Mr. Momodou Cham
Macroeconomic Adviser Dr. Tarun Das

Acting Director (SSSD) Momodou Taal
Economist (SSSD) Ms. Ceesay Chilel
Document History:
This report is an update of the following reports prepared by the Research Team:
1. The Gambia Quarterly Economic Bulletin, pp.1-30, 31 March 2009.

2. The Gambia Monthly Economic Abstract, pp.1-16, 31 March 2009.
3. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, pp.1-40, 30 April 2009.
4. The Gambia Monthly Economic Abstract, pp.1-16, 30 April 2009.
5. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, pp.1-39, 31 May 2009.
6. The Gambia Monthly Economic Abstract, pp.1-15, 31 May 2009.
7. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, Part-1, pp.01-22, June 2009.
8. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, Part-2, pp.23-46, June 2009.
9. The Gambia Monthly Economic Abstract, pp.1-16, June 2009.
10. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, Part-1, pp.01-22, July 2009.
11. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, Part-2, pp.23-46, July 2009.
12. The Gambia Monthly Economic Abstract, pp.1-16, July 2009.
13. The Gambia Monthly Economic Abstract, pp.1-16, August 2009.
14. The Gambia Monthly Economic Abstract, pp.1-16, September 2009.
15. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, pp.1-25, October 2009.
16. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, pp.1-37, November 2009.
17. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, pp.1-37, December 2009.
18. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, pp.1-36, January 2010.
19. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, pp.1-40, February 2010.
20. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, pp.1-40, March 2010.
21. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, pp.1-31, May 2010.
5
HIGHLIGHTS
Global Economic Recovery Is Stronger than Expected, but Speed Varies
• The global economic recovery is stronger than expected, but the speed of recovery is uneven across
regions. As per the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) April 2010, world output is expected to rise
by 4¼ percent in 2010. Economies with a strong start are likely to remain in the lead, as growth in
other countries is constrained by lasting damage to financial sectors and household balance sheets.
• Sub-Saharan Africa has weathered the global crisis well and is expected to recover rapidly from the
slowdown in 2009. Although some middle-income and oil-exporting economies were hit hard by the
collapse in export and commodity markets, the region managed to grow by 2% in 2009. Its growth is
projected to accelerate to 4.7% in 2010 and to 5.9% in 2011.
Global Inflation Pressures are Subdued and Oil Prices are Moderate
• The global recession caused a large drop in inflation. The still-low levels of capacity utilization and
well-anchored inflation expectations are expected to keep inflation low in 2010.
• Average Brent crude oil prices declined to $76.25 per barrel in May 2010 from $84.08 per barrel in
April 2010, and are expected to range around $76 a barrel in 2010 and $82 a barrel in 2011.
Impact on the Gambian Economy
• The sharp decline in global economic activity had adverse impact on the Gambian economy in 2008
leading to decline of exports and remittances and decline of manufacturing production, wholesale
and retail trade, transport and telecom. However, thanks to bumper crops and very good
performance by electricity, telecom and financial sectors, the real GDP growth at constant 2004
market prices improved from 6% in 2007 to 6.3% in 2008.
• Real GDP growth in 2009 is estimated to be 5.6% supported by a growth of 9.8% in agricultural
production, 2.1% by industrial production and 4.3% in services production.
• With expected normal monsoons, real GDP growth in 2010 is projected to be 5% aided by a growth
of 4.6% in agriculture, 5.1% by industrial production and 4.9% in services production.
CPI Inflation
• Annual point-to-point CPI inflation decelerated significantly from 5.9% (food 7.1% and non-food
4.7%) in May 2009 to 4.1% (food 5.4% and non-food 2.4%) in May 2010. The 12-month average
inflation rate also decelerated from 5.9% in May 2009 to 3.5% in May 2010.
• Among other groups, transport recorded an inflation of 2.5%, clothing 2%, utilities 1.8%, restaurants
and hotels 4.2% and miscellaneous goods and services 7.3% in May 2010.
Government Fiscal Performance
• Government’s fiscal performance was not satisfactory in Jan-May 2010 compared with Jan-May
2009. Tax revenues declined by 2.2% in Jan-May 2010 over Jan-May 2009 compared with a growth
of 13.8% in Jan-May 2009 over Jan-May 2008. However, there was better performance of non-tax
revenues in Jan-May 2010 than in Jan-May 2009. Basic deficit at 0.3% of GDP in Jan-May 2010 was
significantly higher than 0.1% of GDP in Jan-May 2009.
6
Domestic Debt and Treasury Bills Yields
• Including CBG support, the total outstanding domestic debt increased to D7.5 billion (26.5% of GDP)
at end-May 2010, from D6.6 billion (26.1% of GDP) a year ago. Outstanding TBs increased by 8.2%
to D5.2 billion and accounted for 68.2% of the stock (including TMA overdraft).
• Yields on treasury bills fluctuated widely in recent months. In view of the declining trend of inflation
rates, the Monetary Policy Committee reduced the policy rate by 2 percentage points to 14% with
effect from December 2009. As a result, average yields of the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day bills had
declining trend since then and fell from 11%, 12.9% and 14.3% respectively in December 2009 to
9.8%, 10.8% and 13.3% respectively in May 2010.
Money Supply and Commercial Banks Performance
• Broad money supply (M2) recorded an annual growth of 23.6% in April 2010, compared to 18.8% a
year ago. While quasi money increased by a faster pace of 29.3%, narrow money increased by 17.6
percent. On the supply side, 23.6% growth of broad money in April 2010 was supported by 9.6%
growth in currency in circulation outside banks, 22.5% growth in demand deposits, 17% growth in
savings deposits and significant growth of 44.8% in time deposits.
• On the demand side, growth was due to 1.8% growth in net foreign assets and 34.1% growth in net
domestic assets over a year. Domestic credit increased by 22.3% from D6.7 billion in April 2009 to
D8.2 billion in April 2010, supported by 25% growth in government borrowing, 23.3% growth in
credits to public entities and 20% growth in credits to the private sector, over a year.
• The banking industry continues to show increasing signs of resilience with growth in assets, capital
and reserves. The industry’s total assets increased to D15.5 billion in April 2010, up by 22.8% over
a year, and the asset quality is satisfactory.
• The average risk-weighted capital adequacy ratio increased from 18.1% in Dec 2009 to 18.7% in
March 2010 and was well above the statutory norm at 8%. However, nonperforming loans as a ratio
of gross loans deteriorated from 12.0% in December 2009 to 16.9% in March 2010.
Balance of Payments, Foreign Exchange Reserves and Exchange Rate
• Revised BOP estimates for 2009 indicate a decline in the overall balance from a surplus of
US$23.35 million in 2008 to a deficit of US$6.79 million. While the current account improved to a
surplus of US$63.29 million relative to a deficit of US$12.35 million in 2008, the capital and financial
account balance recorded a deficit over the period relative to the surplus recorded a year ago.
• The year 2010 has started with a significant improvement in the overall BOP situation as compared
with that in the first quarter of 2009. Current account recorded a surplus of D642 million in 2010-Q1
compared to a deficit of (-) D108 million in 2009-Q1, and the overall balance of payments showed a
surplus of D746 million in 2010-Q1 compared with a deficit at (-)D859 in 2009Q1.
• At end-April 2010, gross international reserves, including the SDR allocations, stood at US$178.63
million, equivalent to 7.0 months of import cover.
• Over one year, in May 2010 Dalasi depreciated against US$ by 7.4%, against SEK by 8.3%, against
CHF by 14.6% and against CFA by 5.6%, while it appreciated against the UK£ by 5.5% and against
Euro marginally by 0.7%.
7
At a Glance- May 2010

Economic Latest Status in the Status in the Outlook for 2010
Indicators Reference latest reference Corresponding
Period period period a year ago
Real GDP (MP) 2009 Overall 5.6 Overall 6.3 Overall 5.0
Growth rate (%) Agriculture 9.8 Agriculture 26.6 Agriculture 4.6
Industry 2.1 Industry (-) 1.2 Industry 5.1
Services 4.3 Services 4.2 Services 4.9
CPI inflation (%) May 2010 Overall 4.1 Overall 5.9 Expected to remain
Food 5.4 Food 7.1 moderate in the range of
Non-food 2.4 Non-food 4.7 4 to 5.5 percent.
Brent crude oil May 2010 Average Average May stabilize around
price (US$/ brl) US$76.25 US$57.94 US$76 in 2010
Growth rate (%) of Jan-May 2010 (-) 0.9 18.0
Revenue & grants The budget for 2010 has
Growth rate (%) of Jan-May 2010 (-) 0.7 37.1 targeted overall fiscal deficit
Exp & Net Lending at (-) 1.1% of GDP and
Revenue & grants Jan-May 2010 6.7 7.6 basic balance at zero.
as % of GDP However, fiscal
Exp & Net Lending Jan-May 2010 7.5 8.5 performance in Jan-May
as % of GDP 2010 was not better than
Jan-May 2009.
Overall fiscal bal. Jan-May 2010 (-) 0.8 (-) 0.9
Zero basic balance may not
as % of GDP
be achieved unless
Basic balance as Jan-May 2010 (-) 0.3 (-) 0.1
revenue realization
% of GDP improves significantly in the
Basic Primary bal. Jan-May 2010 1.0 1.3 subsequent months.
as % of GDP
Domestic debt End-May 2010 26.5 26.1 Likely to decline in 2010.
as % of GDP
Yield on 91-days May 2010 9.8 12.5 Yields may come down
TBs (%) further as CPI inflation is
Yield on 182- May 2010 10.8 13.8 moderate.
days TBs (%)
Yield on 364- May 2010 13.3 15.3
days TBs (%)
GR of Money April 2010 23.6 18.8 Money growth rate is
supply (M2) (%) likely to remain high.
Banks’ assets End-April 2010 15.50 12.62 Likely to increase
(Billion Dalasi)
CBG policy rate June 2010 14 16 MPC reduced policy
(%) rate to 14% in Dec 2009.
Overall BOP 2009 (-) 6.8 23.35 BOP situation is likely to
Balance (Mln D) remain comfortable in
Current A/C 2009 63.29 (-) 12.35 2010 due to revival of
Balance (Mln D) exports, tourist income,
Capital-Fin. A/C 2009 (-) 70.1 35.70 remittances and foreign
Balance (Mln D) investment.
Dalasi/ UK£ End-May 2010 39.11 41.40 Dalasi is expected to
Dalasi/ US$ End-May 2010 28.73 26.74 depreciate against major
Dalasi/ Euro End-May 2010 36.72 37.00 currencies in 2010.
8
1. Global Economic Outlook
1.1 Global Economic Recovery Is Stronger than Expected, but Speed Varies
Global economic recovery is stronger than expected, but the speed is uneven across countries and
regions. As per the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO2), April 2010, world output is expected to grow
by 4.2% in 2010 followed by 4.3% in 2011. Economies with a strong start are likely to remain in the
lead, while growth in other countries is constrained by lasting damage to financial sectors and
household balance sheets.
Global activity has rebounded, as evidenced by accelerating world trade, industrial production, and
retail sales. Employment continues to contract in advanced economies but is expanding again in
emerging economies, helped by strong potential growth. Industrial confidence has returned to pre-crisis
levels, but household confidence in advanced economies continues to lag due to subdued employment.
Economic activities still depend on highly accommodative macro-economic policies and are subject to
downside risks due to sharp declines in the countercyclical fiscal measures. IMF advises that “the
monetary, fiscal, and financial policymakers will need to ensure a smooth transition of demand from the
government to the private sector and from economies with excessive external deficits to those with
excessive surpluses. In most advanced economies, fiscal and monetary policies should maintain a
supportive thrust this year to further sustain growth and employment. But many of these economies
also need to urgently adopt credible strategies to contain public debt and later bring it down to more
prudent levels. Financial sector repair and reform are also high-priority requirements”.
Emerging and Developing Economies: Activity in emerging and developing economies is leading the
global recovery. In key emerging Asian economies, particularly in China and India, output already
exceeds pre-crisis levels by a wide margin, and the output growth in these countries, averaging about
10% in Q2–Q4 of 2009, is outpacing estimates of full-capacity (potential) output growth.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Sub-Saharan Africa has weathered the global crisis well and is expected to
recover rapidly from the slowdown in 2009. Although some middle-income and oil-exporting economies
were hit hard by the collapse in export and commodity markets, the region managed to grow by 2% in
2009. Its growth is projected to accelerate to 4.7% in 2010 and to 5.9% in 2011.
The region’s quick recovery is due to the relatively limited integration of the most low-income
economies into the global economy and the limited impact on their terms of trade, the rapid
normalization in global trade and commodity prices, and the use of countercyclical fiscal policies.
Remittances and official aid flows have also been less adversely affected than anticipated by the
recessions in advanced economies.
Banking sectors, in general, remained resilient, and private capital inflows resumed into the region’s
more integrated economies. Shocks from the global crisis hit sub-Saharan Africa mainly through the
trade channel. Reflecting their greater openness to trade, the region’s middle-income economies like
the South Africa were among the hardest hit.
2
World Economic Outlook: Rebalancing Growth, IMF, Washington D.C., April 2010.
9
10
1.2 Inflation Pressures Are Generally Subdued but Diverge
The global recession caused a large drop in inflation and rising concern about mild deflation.
The still-low levels of capacity utilization and well-anchored inflation expectations are expected
to keep inflation low in 2010. The decline in inflation in many advanced economies is puzzling
given the exceptionally large falls in output. Core inflation in the United States is running around
1½ percent, down from 2 percent; and in the United Kingdom it appears to have moved
sideways. In Japan, price dynamics led to very low to negative inflation, which slightly exceeded
1 percent in February 2010. In general, the correlation between the drop in core inflation from its
2008 peaks and the increase in unemployment rates is weaker than that in 2001 recession.
Inflation pressures are projected to remain low, held down by high unemployment rates and
excess capacity. Inflation has been higher and more volatile in emerging economies, and
inflation pressures could resurface more easily there than in advanced economies.
Commodity prices are rebounding
Commodity prices have rebounded ahead of the recovery (Table 1.2). Average Brent crude oil
prices declined to $76.25 per barrel in May 2010 from $84.08 per barrel in April 2010. Looking
ahead, commodity prices are expected to rise a bit further supported by the strength of global
demand, especially from emerging economies. However, this upward pressure is expected to
be modest, given the above-average inventory levels and substantial spare capacity in many
commodity sectors. Accordingly, the IMF’s baseline petroleum price projection is unchanged at
$76 a barrel for 2010 and revised up to $82 a barrel in 2011. Other non-fuel commodity prices
have also been marked up modestly by the IMF WEO April 2010.
Table-1.2 Trends of World Commodity Prices
11
Source: World Bank Pink Sheet June 2010
12
Source: World Bank Pink Sheet June 2010
13
2. Current State of the Gambian Economy

2.1 Overall and Sectoral GDP Growth Rates
• The sharp decline in global economic activity had adverse impact on the Gambian
economy in 2008 leading to decline of exports and remittances and decline of
manufacturing production, wholesale and retail trade, transport and telecom (Table-2.1).
• However, thanks to bumper crops contributed by favorable monsoon at home and high
international prices of food grains, and very good performance by electricity, telecom
and financial sectors, the real GDP growth at constant 2004 market prices improved
from 6% in 2007 to 6.3% in 2008 (Table-2.1 and Figure-2.1).
• As per the Revised Estimates of the GBOS, real GDP growth in 2009 at constant market
prices is estimated to be 5.6% supported by a growth of 9.8% in agricultural production,
2.1% by industrial production and 4.3% in services production.
• With expected normal monsoons, agricultural production is expected to perform well in

2010. However, given the high base already achieved, the agricultural growth is likely to
decelerate. Consequently, real GDP growth in 2010 at constant market prices is
projected to be 5% supported by a growth of 4.6% in agricultural production, 5.1% by
industrial production and 4.9% in services production.
• Share of agriculture in GDP at constant factor cost increased from 21.6% in 2007 to
26.2% in 2010, while share of industry declined from 14.7% to 13% and that of services
declined from 63.7% to 60.7% during the same period. Increase of agricultural share
was contributed by increase in share of crops, while decline in industrial share was due
to decline in shares of manufacturing and construction, and decline of services share
was mainly due to decline of share of wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants,
and transport and communications.
14
Figure-2.1: Trends of sectoral growth rates during 2001-2010 (in percentage)
Table-2.1: Sectoral Growth Rates and Shares in GDP in the Gambia in 2007-2010 (in %)
Sectoral Growth Rates Sectoral Shares in GDP-FC
(in percentage) (in percentage)
Items 2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010
Actual Actual Actual Proj. Actual Actual Actual Proj.
GDP at 2004 basic price 6.0 6.3 5.6 5.0 107.5 105.6 105.7 105.9
Agriculture and allied -1.9 26.6 9.8 4.6 21.6 25.3 26.3 26.2
-- Crops -15.2 55.2 14.3 4.6 9.5 13.6 14.8 14.8
-- Livestock 11.9 4.3 4.5 4.5 9.4 9.0 8.9 8.9
-- Forestry -4.0 1.0 0.7 2.0 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
-- Fishing 18.0 3.5 5.1 5.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0
Industry 2.5 -1.2 2.1 5.1 14.7 13.4 13.0 13.0
-- Mining and quarrying -14.1 8.8 12.0 10.0 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.2
-- Manufacturing 3.9 -8.3 -2.8 3.2 7.0 5.9 5.4 5.4
-- Electricity, gas, water 59.1 1.7 6.2 10.0 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6
-- Construction -4.3 5.0 3.0 1.0 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.8
Services 8.3 4.2 4.3 4.9 63.7 61.3 60.7 60.7
-- Wholesale/retail trade 9.7 -2.3 6.0 1.0 29.5 26.6 26.7 25.7
-- Hotels/ restaurants 14.3 2.9 -26.8 3.7 3.9 3.7 2.6 2.6
-- Transport / telecom 7.0 -8.0 5.0 7.6 13.0 11.0 11.0 11.3
-- Financial -0.9 28.2 13.2 8.0 7.0 8.3 9.0 9.2
-- Real est., business 1.4 0.0 2.5 0.1 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.8
-- Public administration 12.9 42.1 2.0 8.5 2.8 3.7 3.6 3.7
-- Education -6.4 38.2 2.7 16.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 2.0
-- Health 28.3 25.4 8.0 15.7 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.6
-- Other services 67.4 8.9 2.8 11.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
GDP at FC 5.1 8.3 5.4 4.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
GDP at Basic Price 5.6 8.4 5.1 5.0 96.6 96.7 96.4 96.6
Source: Gambian Bureau of Statistics (GBOS) for the years 2006-2009 and projections for 2010 are
made by the Research Team.
15
2.2 Consumer Price Index and Inflation
• As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual point-to-point CPI inflation
decelerated significantly from 5.9% in May 2009 to 4.1% in May 2010. The 12-month
average inflation rate also decelerated from 5.9% in May 2009 to 3.5% in May 2010.
• Food and drinks (with weights of 55.1% in overall CPI) recorded an annual point-to-point
inflation rate of 5.4% in May 2010, down from 7.1% a year ago, and contributed 75.3%
to overall inflation in May 2010.
• Non-food items (with weights of 44.9% in overall CPI) recorded annual inflation rate of
2.4% in May 2010, down from 4.7% a year ago and contributed 24.7% to total inflation.
• Among other groups, transport recorded an inflation of 2.5%, clothing 2%, utilities 1.8%,
restaurants and hotels 4.2% and miscellaneous goods and services 7.3% in May 2010.
Table-2.2 CPI Inflation Rates in May 2010 (in percentage)

Items Weights
May 2009 May 2010 Inflation Wi (CPIi1 – Contributio
Wi (%) Index Index (%) CPIi0) n3 (%)
Overall 100.0120.51 125.50 4.1 492.5 100.0
Food 55.1125.75 132.49 5.4 371.1 75.3
Tobacco 0.7 106.13 106.76 0.6 0.4 0.1
Clothing 11.2111.20 113.38 2.0 24.5 5.0
Utilities 3.4 122.11 124.33 1.8 7.5 1.5
Furnishing 5.2 114.97 116.45 1.3 7.7 1.6
Health 1.2 101.77 101.82 0.0 0.1 0.0
Transport 4.4 119.95 122.89 2.5 12.9 2.6
Telecom 3.0 101.98 102.5 0.5 1.5 0.3
Recreation 8.1 104.67 105.88 1.2 9.8 2.0
Education 1.5 102.25 102.99 0.7 1.1 0.2
Hotels 0.4 116.30 121.13 4.2 1.7 0.4
Misc. 5.9 125.79 134.92 7.3 54.1 11.0
Non-food 44.9114.16 116.9 2.4 123.1 24.7
Source of basic data: Gambian Bureau of Statistics (GBOS). http://www.gbos.gm
3
Contribution of an item to overall inflation is estimated by the following formula:
Contribution of Item (i) = Wi (CPIi1 – CPIi0) / ∑ Wi (CPIi1 – CPIi0) expressed as a percentage.
where CPIi1 = Consumer Price Index for Item (i) in the current period
CPIi0 = Consumer Price Index for Item (i) in the previous period
Wi = Weights for Item (i) and
W = Total weights = Σ Wi
For example, contribution of food to overall inflation is estimated as 100 X 371.1 / 492.5 = 75.3%.
16
17
2.3 Projection of CPI inflation for the year 2010
On the basis of CPI trends until May 2010 and monthly seasonality, we have made three
alternative projections of inflation rates for the year 2010, under the following assumptions:
(1) Alternative-1: It is assumed that the CPI variation for a month over the previous month
in 2010 will be the average CPI variation for the month over the previous month in last
two years (2009 and 2008). Thus, June 2010 CPI is estimated by the following formula:
Projected CPI for June 2010 = May 2010 CPI + [June 2009 CPI – May 2009 CPI + June 2008
CPI– May 2008 CPI]/ 2. For subsequent months, CPI is projected by the similar formula.
(2) Alternative-2: It is assumed that the variation of CPI for a month over the previous
month in 2010 will be the same as that for the respective month over the previous month
in 2009. For example, CPI for June 2010 is estimated by the following formula:
Projected CPI for June 2010 = May 2010 CPI+ (June 2009 CPI – May 2009 CPI). For the
subsequent months, CPI is projected by the similar formula.
(3) Alternative-3: Average of inflation rates under Alternatives 1 and 2.
Results are presented in Table 2.3 which indicates that inflation rate is expected to remain
moderate in the range of 4.1% to 5.7% during 2010, and the year-end 12-month average
inflation rate is expected to be around 4.5%.
Table-2.3: Projections of CPI inflation for the year 2010 (in percentage)
2007 2008 2009 2010- 2010- 2008 2009 2010- 2010- 2010
Index Index Index Alt1 Alt2 Inf.rate Inf.rate Alt1 Alt2 Alt3
Jan 106.8 112.3 120.1 124.4 124.4 5.1 7.0 3.6 3.6 3.6
6 1 3 2 2
Feb 107.0 112.3 120.2 124.7 124.7 5.0 7.0 3.8 3.8 3.8
1 4 5 8 8
Mar 109.3 112.7 120.3 125.0 125.0 3.1 6.7 4.0 4.0 4.0
6 3 0 8 8
Apr 111.6 113.2 120.36 125.3 125.3 1.4 6.3 4.1 4.1 4.1
4 1 0 0
May 112.0 113.8 120.51 125.5 125.5 1.6 5.9 4.1 4.1 4.1
5 3 0 0
Jun 111.9 114.4 120.61 125.88 125.60 2.2 5.4 4.4 4.1 4.3
8 8
July 111.9 116.2 120.84 126.86 125.83 3.8 4.0 5.0 4.1 4.6
5 1
Aug 112.0 117.6 121.15 127.73 126.14 5.0 3.0 5.4 4.1 4.8
9 5
Sep 111.8 118.9 121.75 128.69 126.74 6.3 2.3 5.7 4.1 4.9
6 6
Oct 111.9 119.2 121.99 128.97 126.98 6.6 2.3 5.7 4.1 4.9
5 9
Nov 112.1 119.5 122.7 129.4 127.69 6.6 2.6 5.5 4.1 4.8
3 4 5
Dec 112.2 119.9 123.1 129.8 128.18 6.8 2.7 5.4 4.1 4.7
18
6 3 9 9
Q1 107.7 112.5 120.2 124.8 124.8 4.4 6.9 3.8 3.8 3.8
Q2 111.9 113.8 120.5 125.6 125.5 1.7 5.8 4.2 4.1 4.2
Q3 112.0 117.6 121.2 127.8 126.2 5.0 3.1 5.4 4.1 4.7
Q4 112.1 119.6 122.6 129.4 127.6 6.7 2.5 5.6 4.1 4.8
Ave 110.9 115.9 121.1 126.9 126.0 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.0 4.4
Note: Projections are made by the Research Team. Alternative projections 1, 2 and 3 are defined in the
text above.
19
2.4 Government Fiscal Performance in January-May 2010
• Columns (4), (5) and (6) of Table-2.4.1 present major item-wise revenue realization and
expenditure of the government in the first five months (i.e. Jan-May) of 2008, 2009 and 2010
respectively. Columns (7) and (8) indicate annual percentage changes of major items of
revenues and expenditure in Jan-May 2009 and Jan-May 2010 respectively over those in
the corresponding period of the previous year.
• Government’s fiscal performance was not satisfactory in Jan-May 2010 compared with
Jan-May 2009. Tax revenues declined by 2.2% in Jan-May 2010 over Jan-May 2009
compared with a growth of 13.8% in Jan-May 2009 over Jan-May 2008. However, there was
better performance of non-tax revenues in Jan-May 2010 than in Jan-May 2009.
• In Jan-May 2010, total expenditures & net lending declined marginally by 0.7% over Jan-
May 2009 due to 24.1% decline of capital expenditure and net lending, while current
expenditure increased by only 10% over Jan-May 2009.
• Overall there was a fiscal deficit of (-) D233.2 million in Jan-May 2010, marginally higher
than a fiscal deficit of (-) D231.6 million in Jan-May 2009. Despite contraction of
expenditure, Basic Balance was in deficit at (-)D80.7 million while Basic Primary Surplus
amounted to D280.1 million in Jan-May 2010, lower than Basic Primary Surplus of D324.5
million in Jan-May 2009.
Table-2.4.1 Govt Financial Performance in Jan-May 2010 (Million Dalasi)

Items 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 Ja-May-09 Ja-May-10
Actual Budget Jan-May Jan-May Jan-May % ch over % ch over
Ja-May 08 Ja-May-09
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Revenue and grants 4893.0 5474.1 1624.5 1916.4 1899.8 18.0 -0.9
Domestic Revenue 3904.9 4413.2 1555.6 1755.1 1765.4 12.8 0.6
Tax Revenue 3517.5 3991.3 1386.7 1578.0 1543.8 13.8 -2.2
Nontax Revenue 387.4 421.9 169.0 177.1 221.6 4.8 25.1
Grants 988.1 1061.0 68.8 161.3 134.4 134.3 -16.7
Exp & Net Lending 5631.9 5772.9 1566.4 2148.0 2133.0 37.1 -0.7
Current Expenditure 3625.1 4455.6 1229.6 1472.4 1620.0 19.7 10.0
Personnel Emoluments 1191.8 1499.3 373.9 455.8 592.0 21.9 29.9
Other Charges 1691.9 2193.9 513.2 655.1 667.2 27.6 1.9
Interest 741.4 762.4 342.4 361.6 360.8 5.6 -0.2
External 153.2 176.3 72.7 83.3 72.6 14.7 -12.8
Domestic 588.3 586.1 269.7 278.3 288.2 3.2 3.6
Cap Exp & Net Lending 2006.8 1317.3 336.8 675.7 513.0 100.6 -24.1
Capital Expenditure 1889.1 1255.3 288.7 638.5 513.0 121.2 -19.7
Externally financed 1300.1 1360.0 172.2 355.8 286.9 106.7 -19.4
Net Lending 117.7 62.0 48.2 37.1 0.0 -22.9 -100.0
Overall Fiscal Balance -739.0 -298.7 58.1 -231.6 -233.2 -498.7 0.7
Basic Balance -427.0 0.3 161.4 -37.1 -80.7 -123.0 117.4
Basic Primary Balance 314.5 762.7 503.8 324.5 280.1 -35.6 -13.7
Nominal GDP (GBOS) 25313 27885 22978 25313 27885 10.2 10.2
Source: Statistics and Special Studies Unit, MOF.
Notes: (1) Overall balance = (Revenue and Grants) minus (Expenditure and Net Lending);
(2) Basic Balance = (Domestic Rev) less (Exp. and Net Lending excluding externally financed capital exp) and
(3) Basic Primary Balance = Basic Balance plus interest payments
20
• Column (2) to (6) of Table-2.4.2 indicates the item-wise fiscal performance of the
government, as percentage of GDP, for 2009-outturn, 2010-Budget, Jan-May 2008, Jan-
May 2009 and Jan-May 2010 outturn respectively.
• It is observed from the table that the fiscal performance in Jan-May 2010 is not better
than in Jan-May 2009 in terms of percentages of GDP. The 2010 Budget has targeted basic
balance at nil as per commitment to the IMF. But, there was a Basic deficit at (-) 0.3% of
GDP in Jan-May 2010, significantly higher than that at (-) 0.1% of GDP in Jan-May 2009.
• The Budget for 2010 has targeted at total revenue and grants amounting to 19.3% of
GDP (the same as that in 2009-Outturn) and total expenditure and net lending amounting to
20.3% of GDP (significantly lower than 22.2% of GDP in 2009-Outturn) resulting in an
overall fiscal deficit amounting to 1.1% of GDP, significantly lower than 2.9% of GDP
recorded in 2009-Outturn.
• Significant reduction in total expenditure is sought to be achieved through drastic cut in

capital expenditure from 7.5% of GDP in 2009-Outturn to 4.4% of GDP in 2010 Budget.
Such a cut in capital expenditure may be good to maintain fiscal sustainability, but may
affect adversely development activities unless funds are supplemented by donors’ aid.
Table-2.4.2 Govt Financial Performance in 2009 and Jan-May 2010

(As % of GDP at current market prices)
Items 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010
Actual Budget Jan-May Jan-May Jan-May
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Revenue and grants 19.3 19.6 7.1 7.6 6.8
Domestic Revenue 15.4 15.8 6.8 6.9 6.3
Tax Revenue 13.9 14.3 6.0 6.2 5.5
Nontax Revenue 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.7 0.8
Grants 3.9 3.8 0.3 0.6 0.5
Exp & Net Lending 22.2 20.7 6.8 8.5 7.6
Current Expenditure 14.3 16.0 5.4 5.8 5.8
Personnel Emoluments 4.7 5.4 1.6 1.8 2.1
Other Charges 6.7 7.9 2.2 2.6 2.4
Interest 2.9 2.7 1.5 1.4 1.3
External 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3
Domestic 2.3 2.1 1.2 1.1 1.0
Cap Exp & Net Lending 7.9 4.7 1.5 2.7 1.8
Capital Expenditure 7.5 4.5 1.3 2.5 1.8
Externally financed 5.1 4.9 0.7 1.4 1.0
Net Lending 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Overall Bal Inc. grants -2.9 -1.1 0.3 -0.9 -0.8
Basic Balance -1.7 0.0 0.7 -0.1 -0.3
Basic Primary Balance 1.2 2.7 2.2 1.3 1.0
Source: Statistics and Special Studies Division, MOF.
Notes: (1) Overall balance = (Revenue and Grants) minus (Expenditure and Net Lending);
(2) Basic Balance = (Domestic Revenue) less (Expenditure and Net Lending excluding externally
financed capital expenditure) and
(3) Basic Primary Balance = Basic Balance plus interest payments
21
2.5 Domestic Debt and Treasury Bills Outstanding
(a) Including CBG support, the total outstanding domestic debt increased to D7.5 billion
(27% of GDP) at end-May 2010, from D6.6 billion (26.1% of GDP) a year ago.
Outstanding Treasury bills increased by 8.2 percent to D5.2 billion and accounted for 68.7
percent of the stock (including TMA overdraft)..
(b) The share of Treasury bills declined from 72.2% at end-May 2009 to 68.2% at end-May
2010, that of Sukuk Al-Salam increased from 1.2% to 1.8%, that of Govt. bonds declined
from 5.1% to 4.7%, that of NIB treasury bills declined from 8.3% to 6.6% while share of
TMA overdraft increased from 13.4% to 18.1% over the same period.
Table-2.5-A Outstanding Domestic Public Debt as on 31 May 2010

Type of debt Million Dalasi % change Composition (in %)
31 May 31 May in May 2010 31 May 31 May
2009 2010 over May 2009 2009 2010
Treasury bills 4,772 5,162 8.2 72.2 68.7
Sukuk Al-Salam 76 135 77.3 1.2 1.8
Marketable Govt 0 25 -- 0.0 0.3
Bonds
Non-marketable 85 85 0.0 1.3 1.1
GNPC
Non-mark.Govt Bond 250 250 0.0 3.8 3.3
NIB Treasury Notes 547 496 -9.3 8.3 6.6
TMA Overdrawn 883 1,364 54.4 13.4 18.1
Total dom. Debt 6,613 7,517 13.7 100.0 100.0
Nominal GDP 25313 27885 10.2
As % of GDP 26.1 27.0 3.2
Excluding overdraft 22.6 22.1 -2.5
Domestic Debt Sustainability
As per the analysis made by the CBG, the current level of Gambia’s domestic debt is not
sustainable. Out of the three sustainability indicators given in Table-2.5-B, one indicator viz.
debt service to revenue ratio is not satisfied.
Table-2.5-B Primary Benchmarks for Domestic Debt Sustainability Ratios (%)
Item Threshold 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
1. Debt service/Rev ratio 28-63 142 124 118 91 95

2. Debt /GDP ratio 20-25 24.5 22.1 25.7 24.5 22.9
3. Debt/ Revenue ratio 92-167 151.5 131.1 169.6 154.5 154.8
Note: (1) Debt service is the sum of interest payments plus the amortization (i.e. repayment of principal)
including the rollover of treasury Bills. (2) There are no internationally agreed levels of thresholds. The
thresholds used here are those used by the Debt Relief International (DRI) for many HIPC countries.
Source: Central Bank of Gambia
22
2.6 Treasury Bills Yields
• Yields on treasury bills fluctuated widely in recent months. As expected, the higher the
maturity of treasury bills, the higher is the yield. However, despite stability in deposit
rates and significant decline of annual point-to-point CPI inflation rate from 7% in Jan
2009 to 2.8% in Dec 2009, average yields on the 91-day bills increased from 10.5% in
Jan 2009 to 11% in Dec 2009 and yield on 182-day bills from 12.1% in Jan 2009 to
12.9% in Dec 2009.
• In view of the declining trend of inflation rates, the Monetary Policy Committee reduced
the policy rate by 2 percentage points to 14% with effect from December 2009. As a
result, average yields of the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day bills had declining trend since
then and fell from 11%, 12.9% and 14.3% respectively in December 2009 to 9.8%,
10.8% and 13.3% respectively in May 2010.
Table-2.6 Average yields on treasury bills (in percentage per annum)

2008 2009 2010
91-D 162-D 364-D 91-D 182-D 364-D 91-D 182-D 364-D
Jan 10.6 11.4 13.6 10.5 12.1 14.4 10.3 12.0 13.6
Feb 10.9 11.9 13.7 11.1 12.8 14.4 10.7 11.7 13.2
Mar 11.0 12.1 13.6 11.4 12.7 14.4 11.3 11.5 12.9
Apr 10.9 11.9 13.3 12.0 13.0 14.6 11.0 11.5 13.1
May 10.2 11.3 13.0 12.5 13.8 15.3 9.8 10.8 13.3
Jun 10.0 11.2 13.3 13.0 13.8 15.6
Jul 9.6 10.6 12.6 11.5 12.0 14.4
Aug 8.8 10.2 12.1 10.2 11.2 13.3
Sep 8.9 11.0 13.1 10.4 11.7 14.3
Oct 10.3 11.4 13.6 10.8 12.1 14.2
Nov 10.1 13.4 13.7 10.8 12.3 14.0
Dec 9.9 12.5 14.0 11.0 12.9 14.3
Trends of Yields of Treasury Bills during 2007-2010
23
2.7 Money Supply
• Broad money supply (M2) recorded an annual growth of 23.6% in April 2010, compared
to 18.8% a year ago. While quasi money increased by a faster pace of 29.3%, narrow
money increased by 17.6 percent.
• On the supply side, 23.6% growth of broad money in April 2010 was supported by 9.6%
growth in currency in circulation outside banks, 22.5% growth in demand deposits, 17%
growth in savings deposits and significant growth of 44.8% in time deposits.
• On the demand side, growth was due to 1.8% growth in net foreign assets and 34.1%
growth in net domestic assets over a year.
• Domestic credit increased by 22.3% from D6.7 billion in April 2009 to D8.2 billion in April
2010, supported by 25% growth in government borrowing, 23.3% growth in credits to
public entities and 20% growth in credits to the private sector, over a year.
Table-2.7 Money Supply and Demand in April 2010
Components April April April April April April-09 April-10

2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 % ch. % ch.
Million Million Million % % over over
Dalasi Dalasi Dalasi share share April-08 April-09
1.Money Supply (M3) (2+3) 8307 9870 12201 100 100 18.8 23.6
2.Narrow Money (2.1+2.2) 4041 4806 5653 49 46 18.9 17.6
2.1 Currency 1535 1,808 1,981 18 16 17.8 9.6
2.2 Demand deposits 2507 2998 3,672 30 30 19.6 22.5
3.Quasi money (3.1+3.2) 4265 5064 6547 51 54 18.7 29.3
3.1 Savings deposits 2530 2,823 3,301 29 27 11.6 17.0
3.2 Time deposits 1736 2,241 3,246 23 27 29.1 44.8
Demands for money (1+2) 8307 9870 12201 100 100 18.8 23.6
1.Net foreign assets (1.1+1.2) 3113 3214 3272 33 27 3.2 1.8
1.1 Monetary Authorities 2,403 2,424 3058 25 25 0.9 26.1
1.2 Commercial banks 711 790 214 8 2 11.1 -72.9
2.Net Dom. Assets (2.1+2.2) 5193 6656 8929 67 73 28.2 34.1
2.1 Domestic credit 5054 6665 8150 68 67 31.9 22.3
(a) Credits to government 1844 2,693 3365 27 28 46.0 25.0
(b) Credits to public entities 273 554 683 6 6 103.3 23.3
(c) Credits to private sector 2754 3418 4102 35 34 24.1 20.0
(d) Credits to forex bureau 183 0 0 0 0 -100.0 0
2.2 Other items, net 140 -9 778 0 6 -106.6 -8606.2
Source: Central Bank of Gambia
24
2.8 Performance by Commercial Banks
(a) The Gambian banking industry consists of 13 banks with highly skewed distribution of
assets. The industry is dominated by three large banks holding almost two-thirds of the
total assets, although their share has declined over the years.
(b) The banking industry continues to show increasing signs of resilience with growth in
assets, capital and reserves. The industry’s total assets increased to D15.5 billion in April
2010, up by 22.8% over a year, and the asset quality is satisfactory.
(c) The average risk-weighted capital adequacy ratio increased from 18.1% in Dec 2009 to
18.7% in March 2010 and was well above the statutory norm at 8% and all the banks
satisfied the minimum requirement.
(d) However, nonperforming loans as a ratio of gross loans deteriorated from 12.0% in
December 2009 to 16.9% in March 2010. This was due to the Central Bank’s inclusion of
restructured loans in non-performing category. However, all loans were adequately
provisioned.
(e) Loans and advances to the private sector, accounting for 51% of total domestic credit,
increased to D4.7 billion in March 2010 from D3.4 billion in March 2009.
(f)Credit to agriculture, manufacturing and building and construction increased by 30.0%,

47.0% and 28.3% respectively. Similarly, credit to distributive trade and other commercial
loans rose by 41.6% and 24.1% during the same period.
(g) In contrast, loans and advances to fishing and tourism declined marginally by 0.25%
and 0.1% respectively.
Table-2.8 Sectoral Distribution of Bank Loans (Million Dalasi)
Items March March Composition (%) GR (%)

2009 2010 Mar-2009 Mar-2010 Mar-2010
Agriculture 283.2 404.5 8.3 8.6 30.0
Fishing 14.4 14.4 0.4 0.3 -0.3
Manufacturing 137.9 260.3 4.0 5.5 47.0
Construction 364.4 508.2 10.6 10.8 28.3
Transportation 322.4 320.2 9.4 6.8 -0.7
Trade 695.9 1191.6 20.3 25.3 41.6
Tourisum 229.1 228.8 6.7 4.9 -0.1
Financial 122.0 179.2 3.6 3.8 31.9
Personal loans 636.6 775.0 18.6 16.5 17.9
Others 622.9 820.7 18.2 17.4 24.1
Total 3428.7 4703.0 100.0 100.0 25.2
Source: Central Bank of Gambia (CBG)
25
2.9 Commercial Banks’ Assets
• Total assets of the commercial banks increased by 22.8% on year-on-year basis from
D12.6 billion at end-April 2009 to D15.5 billion at end-April 2010.
• Gambian banks do not have large exposure to foreign assets or foreign liabilities. At
end-April 2010, foreign assets constituted only 6.9% of total assets (foreign exchange
1.1%, balances abroad 5.5% and foreign investment 0.3%), down from 8.9% a year ago
(foreign exchange 1.7%, balances abroad 6.3% and foreign investment 0.9%).
• Gambian banks also do not have large contingent liabilities. At end-April 2010 contingent
liabilities increased by 24.5% over one year and constituted only 13.2% of total liabilities,
marginally up from 13% a year ago.
• At end-April 2010, loans and advances increased by 27.5% over a year and constituted
28.6% of total assets, compared to 27.6% a year ago.
• At end-April 2010, investments in government Treasury Bills by the banks increased by

30.7% over a year and constituted 25% of their total assets. As expected, three large
banks had the dominant share.
• At end-April 2010, loans and advances to the public sector increased by 27.5% over a
year, while those to the private sector also increased by 27.5% over a year ago.
Table-2.9 Commercial Banks Assets at the end-April 2010 (Million Dalasi)

Assets (Million Apr-2008 Apr-2009 Apr-2010 Composition (%) % ch. Ap09 % ch. Ap10
Dalasi) Apr-2009 Apr-2010 over Apr08 over Apr09
1. Notes and coins 173.5 165.1 236.0 1.3 1.5 -4.8 42.9
2. Foreign exchange 201.8 216.8 176.6 1.7 1.1 7.4 -18.5
3. Local Bank balance 879.5 954.0 1,525.4 7.6 9.8 8.5 59.9
ii. CBG 850.1 951.8 1,291.6 7.5 8.3 12.0 35.7
iii. Banks locally 29.4 2.2 233.9 0.0 1.5 -92.5 10530.5
4. Balances abroad 785.6 798 850.4 6.3 5.5 1.6 6.6
5. Bills purchased 21.9 185.5 88.8 1.5 0.6 747.0 -52.1
6. Loans and advances 2,668.2 3,478.7 4,436.2 27.6 28.6 30.4 27.5
i. Public sector 135.7 469.5 598.7 3.7 3.9 246.0 27.5
ii. Private sector 2,532.50 3,009.20 3,837.5 23.8 24.8 18.8 27.5
7. Investments 3,150.8 3,250.9 4,049.8 25.8 26.1 3.2 24.6
i. Govt Treasury Bills 2,892.80 2,960.40 3,868.4 23.5 25.0 2.3 30.7
ii. Others 160.6 180.9 131.6 1.4 0.8 12.6 -27.2
iii Foreign Invest. 97.4 109.6 49.8 0.9 0.3 12.5 -54.5
8. Fixed assets 609.7 889.7 1,191.4 7.0 7.7 45.9 33.9
9. Guarantees 1,071.90 1,641.20 2,043.0 13.0 13.2 53.1 24.5
10. Other assets 867.6 1,040.10 902.4 8.2 5.8 19.9 -13.2
11. Total assets (1 to 10) 10,430.5 12,620.0 15,499.9 100.0 100.0 21.0 22.8
12. Net Balance (11-9) 9,358.6 10,978.8 13,456.9 87.0 86.8 17.3 22.6
Memo: Foreign Assets 1,084.8 1,124.4 1,076.8 8.9 6.9 3.7 -4.2
Source: Central Bank of Gambia.
26
2.10 Commercial Banks’ Liabilities
• As mentioned earlier, Gambian banks do not have large exposure to foreign liabilities.
At end-April 2010, external sector related liabilities constituted only 2% of total liabilities
(non-residents deposits 1.2%, balances with banks abroad 0.1% and external debt
0.7%), up from 1.7% a year ago (non-residents deposits 1.5%, balances with banks
abroad 0.1% and external debt 0.2%).
• At end-April 2010 bank deposits increased by 26.8% over a year, aided by a growth of
22.5% in demand deposits, 17% in savings deposits and 44.8% in time deposits.
• At end-April 2010 banks capital and reserves increased by 12.7% and bank balances
declined by 31%, while borrowings increased by more than four times over a year.
Table-2.10 Commercial Banks Liabilities at the end-April 2010 (Million

Dalasi)
Liabilities (Million Apr-2008 Apr-2009 Apr-2010 Composition (%) % ch. Ap09 % ch. Ap10
Dalasi) Apr-2009 Apr-2010 over Apr08 over Apr09
1. Capital and reserves 1,238.00 1,501.50 1,692.2 11.9 10.9 21.3 12.7
2. Demand deposits 2,506.9 2,998.1 3,672.1 23.8 23.7 19.6 22.5
i Residents 2,217.60 2,588.00 3,338.3 20.5 21.5 16.7 29.0
ii Non residents 30.8 28.4 30.7 0.2 0.2 -7.8 8.3
iii Government entities 258.5 381.7 303.0 3.0 2.0 47.7 -20.6
3. Savings deposits 2,529.6 2,822.8 3,301.4 22.4 21.3 11.6 17.0
i Residents 2,445.80 2,718.80 3,204.7 21.5 20.7 11.2 17.9
ii Non residents 68.9 72.1 90.8 0.6 0.6 4.6 25.9
iii Government entities 14.9 31.9 6.0 0.3 0.0 114.1 -81.3
4. Time deposits 1,735.7 2,241.2 3,245.8 17.8 20.9 29.1 44.8
i Residents 1,255.50 1,567.90 2,275.1 12.4 14.7 24.9 45.1
ii Non residents 17.2 89.2 64.1 0.7 0.4 418.6 -28.1
iii Government entities 463 584.1 906.6 4.6 5.8 26.2 55.2
Total deposits 6,772.2 8,062.1 10,219.3 63.9 65.9 19.0 26.8
5. Bank Balances 136.2 189.4 130.7 1.5 0.8 39.1 -31.0
i HO & branches 8.6 179 120.2 1.4 0.8 1981.4 -32.8
ii Other banks abroad 127.6 10.4 10.5 0.1 0.1 -91.8 1.1
iii. Banks locally 0 0 - 0.0 0.0 -
6. Borrowings from 237.8 145.5 751.9 1.2 4.9 -38.8 416.8
i Cent. bank of Gambia 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
ii Other banks locally 0 0 20.1 0.0 0.1
iii HO & branches 114.2 125.1 622.5 1.0 4.0 9.5 397.6
iv Other banks abroad 123.6 20.4 109.3 0.2 0.7 436.0
v. Other sources 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
7. Guarantees 1,071.90 1,641.20 2,043.0 13.0 13.2 53.1 24.5
8. Other liabilities 974.3 1,080.50 662.8 8.6 4.3 10.9 -38.7
9. Total liabilities (1 to 8) 10,430.50 12,620.10 15,499.9 100.0 100.0 21.0 22.8
10. Net balance (9-7) 9,358.60 10,978.90 13,456.9 87.0 86.8 17.3 22.6
Memo: Foreign
Source: Centralliabl. 368.1
Bank of Gambia 220.5 305.5 1.7 2.0 -40.1 38.6
27
2.11 Interest Rates and Central Bank Policy Rates
Interest rate on treasury bills declined from 31% in 2003 to 14.9% in 2006 and further to 13.7%
in 2007. It ranged in between 13.1% to 14.7% in 2008 and between 12.3% to 14.3% in 2009.
The bank rate of the CBG declined from 29% in 2003 to 9% in 2007, but was raised to 10% at
the end of 2007 to check effective demand and inflationary pressures on the economy. It has
remained at 10% since then. However, with the introduction of the Monetary Policy Committee
(MPC) Policy Rate, the Bank rate has become ineffective and non-operational.
In response to tight monetary conditions and against a backdrop of falling inflation, the CBG
reduced the statutory minimum reserve requirement of banks from 16% to 14% in March 2008.
The CBG rediscount rate declined from 34% in 2003 to 14% in 2004. In order to counter
emerging inflationary pressures, the CBG raised its rediscount rate by one percentage point
from 14% to 15% in June 2007, and further to 16% in October 2008. The rediscount rate
remained unchanged at 16% since then until November 2009. In view of the declining trend of
inflation rates, the MPC reduced the policy rate by 2 percentage points to 14% with effect from
December 2009. As a result, the yield on the 91-day and 182-day Treasury bills declined to
9.19% and 10.24% in May 2010 from 10.14% and 12.13% in December 2009. Similarly, the
yield on the 364-day bills decreased to 13.0% from 13.65% during the same period.
Despite significant fall of the yields on treasury bills in recent years, maximum short-term
deposit rates and commercial banks’ lending rates remain very high, and there exist wide
interest rate spreads. Successful disinflation allowed the weighted yield on treasury bills to fall
from over 25% in early 2005 to 10.9% in May 2010. By contrast, commercial banks’ lending
rates remained sticky above 20% due to high operating costs and high risks of bank credits.
Table-2.11 Trends of Nominal Interest rates (per cent per annum, end period)
Items 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Bank lending rare- min 18 18 17 21 21 21 18 18 18 18
Bank lending rare- max 24 24 24 36.5 36.5 30 28 27 27 27
Deposit rate (SB) min 8 8 8 8 10 5 5 5 4 4
Deposit rate (SB) max 10 10 10 17 17 10 7 7 7 7
Time dep (3 months) min 9.5 9.5 6 7 8 5 5 5 5 5
Time dep (3 months) max 12.5 12.5 13 22 22 14 8.5 12.9 13.6 15.5
Time dep (6 months) min 10 10 6 8 8 7 6 6 6 6
Time dep (6 months) max 12.5 12.5 13 22 22 15 13 12.9 13.6 15.5
Time dep (12 month) min 11 11 7 10 12 7 6 7 7 6
Time dep (12 month) max 12.5 12.5 13 22 23 13 13 12.9 13.6 15.5
Govt. treasury bills 12 15 20 31 30 16 12.8 13.7 13.6 14.2
CBG Bank Rate 10 13 18 29 28 14 9 10 10 10
CBG Rediscount Rate 15 18 23 34 33 19 14 15 16 16
Range = Maximum-Minimum
Bank lending rate 6 6 7 15.5 15.5 9 10 9 9 9
Deposit rate (SB) 2 2 2 9 7 5 2 2 3 3
Time deposits (3 months) 3 3 7 15 14 9 3.5 7.9 8.6 9.5
Time deposits (6 months) 2.5 2.5 7 14 14 8 7 6.9 7.6 9.5
Time deposits (12 month) 1.5 1.5 6 12 11 6 7 5.9 6.6 9.5
Factors Influencing Interest Rates
Inflation (GDP-Deflator) 3.6 14.9 15.0 22.9 13.6 3.9 0.0 2.0 8.0 4.7
CPI-Inflation 0.9 4.5 8.6 17.0 14.3 5.0 2.1 5.4 4.9 4.5
Real GDP-Growth Rate 5.5 5.7 0.7 2.4 2.1 -0.1 3.1 6.3 6.3 5.0
Exch. Rate change (%) 12.2 22.7 27.0 43.2 5.3 -4.8 -1.8 -11.4 -9.8 15.9
2.12 BOP, Foreign Exchange Reserves and Exchange Rates
28
(a) BOP Situation in 2009
• The overall BOP situation in 2009 was better than expected earlier. The revised balance of
payments estimates for 2009 indicate an improvement in the overall BOP situation from a
deficit of US$23.35 million in 2008 to a surplus of US$6.79 million in 2009.
• While the current account improved to a surplus of US$63.29 million compared to a surplus
of US$12.35 million in 2008, the capital and financial account balance recorded a decline
from US$11 million in 2008 to (-) US$70.08 in 2009.
• The goods account worsened from a deficit of US$68.25 million in 2008 to US$85.98 million
in 2009, but below the 2009 projection of US$141.20 million. Exports and imports declined
by 8.5% and 3.7% to US$170.91 million and US$261.10 million compared to a year ago.
• Net services declined from US$33.37 million in 2008 to US$21.65 million in 2009, net
income improved from a deficit of US$34.26 million in 2008 to a lower deficit of US$8.13
million in 2009, while net transfers improved significantly from US$89.49 million in 2008 to
US$135.75 million in 2009 due to increase of both official and non-official transfers
including remittances by the Gambians living abroad.
(b)BOP Situation in 2010-Q1
• The year 2010 has started with a significant improvement in the overall BOP situation as
compared with that in the first quarter of 2009.
• Current account recorded a surplus of D642 million in 2010-Q1 compared to a deficit of (-)
D108 million in 2009-Q1, due to significant improvements in exports and current transfers in
2010-Q1.
• Capital and financial accounts also recorded an increase from (-)D751.31 Dalasi to D104
million in 2010-Q1.
• Consequently, the overall balance of payments showed a surplus of D746 million in 2010-
Q1 compared with a deficit at (-)D859 in 2009Q1.
(c) Foreign Exchange Reserves
• Volume of transactions in the domestic foreign exchange market, measured by aggregate

sales and purchases of foreign exchange in the first five months of 2010 amounted to
D16.69 billion or US$691.02 million compared to D13.72 billion or US$520.50 million in
2009.
• As at end-April 2010, gross international reserves, including the SDR allocations, stood at
US$177.63 million, equivalent to 7.0 months of import cover compared to US$116.3 million
or 4.9 months of import cover.
29
Table-2.12 Balance of Payments in 2008-2009 and 2010Q1 in Million GD

and US$
2008 2008 2009Q1 2009Q1 2009 2009 2010Q1 2010Q1
Million Mln Million Mln million Mln million mln
Period GD US$ GD US$ GD US$ GD USD
1.Current A/C
=2+3+4+5 207.1 12.3 (107.6) (4.1) 1,692.7 63.3 642.5 23.8
2.Goods (2.1+2.2) (1,558.4) (68.2) (683.9) (26.1) (2,282.5) (86.0) (416.7) (15.5)
2.1 Exports FOB 4,536.5 202.8 934.5 35.7 4,646.0 175.1 1,103.7 41.0
-- Exports trade stat 1,691.1 76.1 239.1 9.1 1,706.1 64.3 466.9 17.3
-- Re-exports 2,489.1 110.7 660.9 25.3 2,829.6 106.6 620.9 23.0
--Goods in transit 356.2 16.0 34.5 1.3 110.3 4.2 15.8 0.6
2.2 Imports FOB (6,094.8) (271.1) (1,618.4) (61.8) (6,928.5) (261.1) (1,520.4) (56.4)
--Imports trade stat (7,111.8) (316.3) (1,888.4) (72.2) (8,084.6) (304.6) (1,774.1) (65.9)
--For re-exports 1,017.0 45.2 270.0 10.3 1,156.1 43.6 253.7 9.4
3. Services 713.5 33.4 367.2 14.0 571.1 21.7 156.1 5.8
--Transportation (434.1) (19.4) (123.6) (4.7) (480.2) (18.1) (224.6) (8.3)
--Travel 1,624.1 73.5 612.7 23.4 1,421.7 53.7 447.4 16.6
--Communications 214.4 9.8 52.4 2.0 264.0 10.0 93.7 3.5
--Insurance (146.0) (6.5) (38.0) (1.5) (165.9) (6.3) (33.4) (1.2)
--Construction 76.0 3.5 12.9 0.5 66.3 2.5 (2.5) (0.1)
-- IT (70.9) (2.8) (23.6) (0.9) (35.9) (1.4) - -
--Other Business (550.0) (24.7) (125.5) (4.8) (499.0) (18.8) (124.5) (4.6)
4. Income (757.4) (34.3) (74.8) (2.9) (214.9) (8.1) (126.0) (4.7)
--Investment income (931.4) (42.1) (115.1) (4.4) (374.9) (14.2) (103.4) (3.8)
--Compensation of
labor 174.0 7.8 40.3 1.5 160.0 6.0 (22.5) (0.8)
5. Current transfers 1,809.3 81.5 283.9 10.8 3,619.1 135.7 1,029.0 38.2
5.1 Government 137.2 6.3 108.3 4.1 798.6 30.0 248.8 9.2
5.2 Remittances 1,195.8 52.6 420.0 16.0 1,741.6 65.7 242.6 9.0
5.3 Other transfers 476.4 22.6 (244.4) (9.3) 1,079.0 40.1 537.6 20.0
6.Capital-
Fin.A/C=7+8 463.4 11.0 (751.3) (28.7) (1,864.3) (70.1) 104.2 3.9
7. Capital 24.4 1.1 - - - - - -
8.
Financial=8.1+8.2+8.
3 439.1 9.9 (751.3) (28.7) (1,864.3) (70.1) 104.2 3.9
8.1 FDI 1,555.7 70.1 262.7 10.0 1,050.9 39.6 262.7 9.8
8.2 Other inv.=A+B+C (1,308.5) (68.1) (827.8) (31.6) (1,029.8) (39.3) 119.1 4.4
(A) Assets=i+ii 93.5 0.2 (197.1) (7.5) 543.3 20.2 276.5 10.3
(i) Loans 251.1 11.5 62.8 2.4 378.7 14.2 94.7 3.5
(ii) Deposits (157.6) (11.3) (259.9) (9.9) 164.7 6.0 181.8 6.7
(B) Liabilities=i+ii (1,401.9) (68.3) (630.7) (24.1) (1,573.1) (59.6) (157.3) (5.8)
(i) Trade credits (1,472.0) (69.3) (528.3) (20.2) (2,357.8) (88.9) (595.1) (22.1)
(ii) Govt Loans=a+b 16.4 0.6 214.2 8.2 526.1 19.8 224.3 8.3
(a) Disbusements 339.6 15.1 276.8 10.6 798.5 30.1 292.2 10.8
(b) Amortization (323.2) (14.5) (62.5) (2.4) (272.4) (10.3) (67.9) (2.5)
(C) Curr. & dep. 53.7 0.4 (316.7) (12.1) 258.7 9.5 213.5 7.9
8.3 Reserve Assets
(increase if negative) 191.8 7.9 (186.2) (7.1) (1,885.4) (70.3) (277.7) (10.3)
Overall Balance
(surplus if negative) 670.5 23.4 (858.9) (32.8) (171.6) (6.8) 746.6 27.7
SOURCE: Central Bank of The Gambia.
30
2.13 Exchange Rate
• From end-December 2009 to end May 2010, the Dalasi depreciated by 2.21% against the
US dollar, while it appreciated against the Euro by 2.03% and Pound Sterling by 1.3%.
• Over one year, in May 2010 Dalasi depreciated against US$ by 7.4%, against SEK by
8.3%, against CHF by 14.6% and against CFA by 5.6%, while it appreciated against the
UK£ by 5.5% and against Euro marginally by 0.7%.
Table-2.13 End-period mid-market exchange rates (Dalasi per unit of

foreign currency)
Year Month UK£ US$ SEK(10 CHF CFA Euro

0) (5000)
2009 Jan 37.25 26.07 325.12 20.85 262.81 33.52
Feb 37.38 26.11 305.29 22.04 257.78 33.6
Mar 38.18 26.38 309.62 23.31 259.30 35.22
Apr 39.05 26.80 321.49 23.00 262.17 35.32
May 41.40 26.74 325.95 22.40 265.98 37.00
June 43.13 26.87 347.89 21.96 272.87 37.04
July 43.31 26.79 346.46 24.42 277.53 38.06
Aug 43.80 26.63 326.25 24.36 281.45 37.68
Sept 42.99 26.95 325.34 25.47 283.58 38.61
Oct 43.48 26.91 377.70 26.07 297.13 39.61
Nov 43.88 26.93 348.88 26.65 295.53 40.15
Dec 43.04 26.94 348.01 25.81 288.26 39.87
Ave 41.41 26.68 334.00 23.86 275.37 37.14
2010 Jan 43.01 26.94 362.62 25.29 289.32 39.03
Feb 42.32 26.94 372.91 25.27 284.26 39.02
Mar 40.79 27.01 364.08 25.09 273.22 37.11
Apr 41.00 27.25 368.69 25.03 281.41 36.05
May 39.11 28.73 353.12 25.67 280.85 36.72
Year Month UK£ US$ SEK(10 CHF CFA Euro
0) (5000)
Rate of appreciation (-) / depreciation (+) of Dalasi
over the same period of previous year (in Percentage)
2009 Oct 7.4 8.1 14.4 29.4 15.1 20.4
Nov 8.2 2.5 8.5 32.8 14.4 20.6
Dec 7.2 1.5 -8.3 12.5 11.2 11.8
2009 Average 0.7 19.3 0.0 19.5 10.6 14.0
2010 Jan 15.5 3.3 11.5 21.3 10.1 16.4
Feb 13.2 3.2 22.1 14.6 10.3 16.1
Mar 6.8 2.4 17.6 7.6 5.4 5.4
Apr 5.0 1.7 14.7 8.8 7.3 2.1
May -5.5 7.4 8.3 14.6 5.6 -0.7
Source: Central Bank of Gambia (CBG)
3. Recent Policy Developments and Development Issues
31
3.1 IMF Executive Board Completes Sixth Review Under The Gambia’s ECF Arrangement
and Approves a 12-Month Extension and US$ US$7.1 Million Augmentation
As per the Press Release No. 10/55 dated February 19, 2010, posted on the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) Website, the Executive Board of the IMF completed the sixth review of
The Gambia’s economic performance under a program supported by the Extended Credit
Facility (ECF)4. The Board approved a waiver for the non-observance of the fiscal performance
criterion based on corrective actions, notably the government’s 2010 budget approved by the
National Assembly, which aims for a near-zero basic balance. The Board’s decision allows the
government to request a further disbursement amounting to SDR 2.0 million (about US$ 3.0
million), bringing total disbursements under the ECF to The Gambia to SDR 20.2 million (about
US$30.8 million).
The Executive Board approved an extension for one year and an augmentation by SDR 4.67
million (about US$ 7.1 million) of The Gambia's ECF arrangement, originally approved on
February 21, 2007 (vide Press Release No. 07/28).
The IMF Board complemented the Gambian authorities for pursuing satisfactory economic
policies which contributed to robust economic growth and low inflation despite ongoing global
economic crisis. However, they observed that even after extensive debt relief, The Gambia
remains at high risk of debt distress. Besides the yields on Treasury Bills are ruling high mainly
due to fiscal slippages and the government’s recourse to domestic borrowing. The government’s
efforts to strengthen its debt management strategy are, therefore, welcome. Until the debt
burden is reduced, Government should continue to limit external borrowing to highly
concessional loans.
The government’s budget for 2010 appropriately targets a near-zero basic balance that will
return The Gambia to a path of declining domestic debt. Fiscal restraint will ease pressure on T-
Bill yields and eventually generate fiscal savings for other spending priorities. However,
disciplined budget execution will be key to achieve these results, and the government’s new
action plan to improve public financial management is in the right direction to achieve such fiscal
discipline.
The IMF appreciates the government’s commitment to maintain low inflation and to take steps to
ease pressures on interest rates. The reinforced banking supervisory framework, including the
phased-in increase in the minimum capital requirement, will contribute to the development of the
sound and efficient banking system.
4
The Extended Credit Facility (ECF) has replaced the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) as the Fund’s
main tool for medium-term financial support to low-income countries by providing a higher level of access to
financing, more concessional terms, enhanced flexibility in program design features, and more focused streamlined
conditionality. Financing under the ECF currently carries a zero interest rate, with a grace period of 5½ years, and a
final maturity of 10 years. The Fund reviews the level of interest rates for all concessional facilities every two years.
32
3.2 Assessment of Quantitative Targets agreed with IMF under PRGF
The Gambia’s three-year Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) arrangement was
approved by the IMF’s Executive Board in February 2007. The third review was completed on
September 8, 2008 and the Fourth Review was done in February 2009. The updated Letter of
Intent (LOI) and Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP), and Technical
Memorandum of Understanding (TMU) were signed jointly by the then honorable Finance
Minister Mr. Mousa Gibril Bala-Gaye and honorable Governor, Central Bank of Gambia, Mr.
Momodou Bamba Saho, on February 3, 2009.
The MEFP reviewed progress in implementing the Government’s PRGF supported program in
2008, and set out the policies that the Government will pursue in 2009. The Government of
Gambia committed that the program, as usual, will continue to be monitored based on agreed
quantitative targets and a set of structural performance criteria and benchmarks indicated in the
MEFP as per program reviews.
The quantitative financial targets for end–March 2009 and end-September 2009 are
performance criteria; and those for end–December 2008, end–June 2009, and end-December
2009 are indicative targets.
Performance of Monitored Variables at the end of December 2009
With regard to the performance of the monitored variables under the PRGF vis-à-vis their end-
December 2009 targets, the CBG through pro-active, consistent and prudent use of various
monetary policy instruments, was able to meet comfortably all the quantitative targets. The Net
useable reserves (NUR) totaled US$148.9 million at end-December 2009 and were above the
end-December target (floor) by US$0.13 million. Similarly, the Net Domestic Assets (NDA) of
the Central Bank amounting to D1.4 billion was below target ceiling by D50.9 million.
The target for basic fiscal balance (floor) was fixed at D685.6 million for the end of December
2009. However, despite good revenue realization, Government failed to achieve this target due
to expenditure pressures. Government achieved a basic balance of (-) D426.9 million at the end
of December 2009, which was well below the target.
Government did not default on the payment of debt services on any external debt. As agreed
under the Program, the government did not contract or guarantee any new non-concessional
external loan having maturity exceeding one year. There is also no non-concessional external
debt outstanding on government account having original maturity exceeding one year.
33

Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin May 2010

Загружено:

Сведения о документе

Авторское право

Доступные форматы

Поделиться этим документом

Поделиться или встроить документ

Параметры публикации

Этот документ был вам полезен?

Это неприемлемый материал?

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin May 2010

Загружено:

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- May 2010

THE GAMBIA MONTHLY

Institutional Support Project for Economic and Financial Governance (ISPEFG)

Political and Administrative Structure

Basic Facts about the Gambia 2

ISPEFG Project/ Research Team and Document History 4

1. Global Economic Outlook 8-12

2. Current State of the Gambian Economy 13-29

3. Recent Policy Developments and Development Issues 30-31

ISPEFG Project and Monthly Economic Bulletin Research Team

Project Supervisor Honorable Mr. Serign Cham,

Project Coordinator Mr. Momodou Cham

Macroeconomic Adviser Dr. Tarun Das

1. The Gambia Quarterly Economic Bulletin, pp.1-30, 31 March 2009.

Global Economic Recovery Is Stronger than Expected, but Speed Varies

Impact on the Gambian Economy

Government Fiscal Performance

Domestic Debt and Treasury Bills Yields

Money Supply and Commercial Banks Performance

Balance of Payments, Foreign Exchange Reserves and Exchange Rate

At a Glance- May 2010

1. Global Economic Outlook

1.2 Inflation Pressures Are Generally Subdued but Diverge

Commodity prices are rebounding

Table-1.2 Trends of World Commodity Prices

Source: World Bank Pink Sheet June 2010

Source: World Bank Pink Sheet June 2010

2. Current State of the Gambian Economy

• With expected normal monsoons, agricultural production is expected to perform well in

Figure-2.1: Trends of sectoral growth rates during 2001-2010 (in percentage)

2.2 Consumer Price Index and Inflation

Table-2.2 CPI Inflation Rates in May 2010 (in percentage)

2.3 Projection of CPI inflation for the year 2010

(3) Alternative-3: Average of inflation rates under Alternatives 1 and 2.

2.4 Government Fiscal Performance in January-May 2010

Table-2.4.1 Govt Financial Performance in Jan-May 2010 (Million Dalasi)

• Significant reduction in total expenditure is sought to be achieved through drastic cut in

Table-2.4.2 Govt Financial Performance in 2009 and Jan-May 2010

2.5 Domestic Debt and Treasury Bills Outstanding

Table-2.5-A Outstanding Domestic Public Debt as on 31 May 2010

Domestic Debt Sustainability

Table-2.5-B Primary Benchmarks for Domestic Debt Sustainability Ratios (%)

Item Threshold 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1. Debt service/Rev ratio 28-63 142 124 118 91 95

2.6 Treasury Bills Yields

Table-2.6 Average yields on treasury bills (in percentage per annum)

2.7 Money Supply

Table-2.7 Money Supply and Demand in April 2010

Components April April April April April April-09 April-10

2.8 Performance by Commercial Banks

(f)Credit to agriculture, manufacturing and building and construction increased by 30.0%,

Table-2.8 Sectoral Distribution of Bank Loans (Million Dalasi)

Items March March Composition (%) GR (%)

Source: Central Bank of Gambia (CBG)

2.9 Commercial Banks’ Assets

• At end-April 2010, investments in government Treasury Bills by the banks increased by

Table-2.9 Commercial Banks Assets at the end-April 2010 (Million Dalasi)

2.10 Commercial Banks’ Liabilities

Table-2.10 Commercial Banks Liabilities at the end-April 2010 (Million

2.11 Interest Rates and Central Bank Policy Rates

(a) BOP Situation in 2009

(b)BOP Situation in 2010-Q1

(c) Foreign Exchange Reserves

• Volume of transactions in the domestic foreign exchange market, measured by aggregate