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C (t pj , o pj )
E p = C (t pj , o pj ) o pj = f j (net pj ) p w ji
w ji How to on Neural
C (t pj , o pj ) C (t pj , o pj ) net pj
w ji
=
net pj w ji Network Forecasting
C (t pj , o pj ) without Maths!
pj =
net pj
C (t pj , o pj ) C (t pj , o pj ) o pj
pj = =
net pj o pj net pj
o pt
= f j' ( net pj )
CD-Start-Up Kit for
net pj
C (t pj , o pj )
Neural Network
pj = f j' (net pj )
o pj
wki o pi
Forecasting
C (t pj , o pj ) net pk C (t pj , o pj )
net pk o pj
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net pk
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20+ software simulators
k k

C (t pj , o pj ) datasets
= wkj = pj wkj
net pk
k k
literature & faq
pj = f j' (net pj ) pj wkj
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Position: Senior Consultant
Languages
German
English
Education
2004 Post Doc Researcher at Int.
Centre for Forecasting,
Lancaster University, UK
2003 Research Fellow at the
George Mason Uni, USA
2003 Visiting Scientist at the
Stellenbosch Business
School, USB, South Africa.
2000-2004 Research & Teaching
Assistant University of
Hamburg, PhD-thesis on
Forecasting in Inventory
Management using ANN
1992-1997 University of Hamburg
MBA equiv. (Dipl.-Kfm.) in
Business Administration
$ <'1 = '1 & && (
7 , .
7 7 , . #
7 , .
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Nationality: German
Work Experience
2004 - Research Associate, Lancaster
University, United Kingdom
2000-2004 Research & Teaching Assistant
University of Hamburg, Prof.
Premar & Vo ; Various
projects in industry & trade
1996-2000 CEO RSG Software GmbH.
Management & IT-Consultant
for Retail & Wholesale Projects
in Germany & UK & Hungary.
Key-Projects
Forecasting Methods in SAP APO-DP,
bdf HAM, Sales Forecast Management &
bdf Netherlands
Automatic Model Selection in APO-DP,
bdf HAM, Sales Forecast Management
Sales Forecasts, AOLTimeWarner, GER
Forecasting for Customer Relationship
Management, Gruner & Jahr AG, GER
Implementing a Forecast Strategy &
Inventory Management in Vending
Supply Chain, Mayfair Services, UK
Inventory Management in Distributions-
Center Logistics, Vendepac, UK
! "
# $ + ,,,
4
# $ + ,,,
%
Born: 1971
Method Competency
SAP APO
SAP Curriculum PLM100,
SCM200, SCM 220
Inventory Management
Forecasting methods
Inventory Management
Supply Chain Planning/ APS
Warehouse logistics
Distribution- / Supply logistics
Business Information Systems
Problem Competency
Demand Planning in Consumer
Goods Industry
Demand Planning in Retail &
Wholesale
Member of the IBF Institute of
Business Forecasters
Member of the International Institute
of Forecasters IIF
Member of IEEE; GOR, GI, ORSA
Regular Presentations at ANN
conferences of IEEE, INNS, APNNA
4 ( ! ,,, 4
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Citation Analysis by year
Forecast
title=(ne ural AND net* AND (forecast* OR pre dict* OR time-ser* OR
7 - time w /2 ser* OR timese r*) & title =(... )
Sales Forecast
Linear (Forecast)
5 9- and evaluated sales forecasting relate d point predictions
350 35
R2 = 0.9036
5 300 30
K > 7 ) @ 250 25
- 0 5 B- 0

[citations]
200 20

-- - 150 15
>;)0A)@ 100 10
9- 4 -
4 >7) ) 9- @ 50 5
5 4 H H >7) )@
0 0
6,

1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
0 - 4 [year]

7
Number of Publications by
- # Business Forecasting Domain
4 4 44
4 5

; ; 52 32
46; 4
83 General Business
6 9 Marketing
51
. Finance
Production
Product Sales
77 4 21
Electrical Load
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Applied Forecasting Methods (all industries)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Averages 25%

Autoregressive Methods 7%

Decomposition 8% $ 4
> O @ J P

[Forecastinng Method]
Exponential Smoothing 24%

Trendextrapolation 35%

Econometric Models 23%

4
Neural Networks 9%
> O @ %8P
Regression 69%

Analogies 23%

Delphi 22%
H 4 4
PERT 6%
> O @ %9P
Surveys 49%

[number replies]

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1943 1959 1972 1986
Hebb Minsky/Papert Werbos White
1949 1969 1974 1988

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Forecasting Methods Forecasting Methods educated guessing
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Methods Methods

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