Geopolitical Risks of 2015

2/3/2017 TheEurasiaGroupIdentifiestheTopGeopoliticalRisksfor2015|Time.
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These Are the Top 10 Geopolitical Risks of 2015

Ian Bremmer
Jan 05, 2015
International stories rise and fall so quickly in todays media. On Monday, its civil conict in
Ukraine. On Tuesday, its the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS). By
Wednesday, the headlines are on to something else. Amid the global whiplash, it's easy to lose
sight of the larger picture. So as the new year begins, its useful to take a broader look at where
these stories are headedand to track the next wave of market-moving surprises in
international politics.
Every January Eurasia Group, the political risk consultancy I founded and oversee today,
publishes Top Risks, a roundup of the geopolitical trends we consider most likely to change
our world in the coming year. This ranking reects our forecast of which global storylines are
most likely to play out over the next 12 months, which will have biggest impact on the markets
and politicsand where we can expect surprises.
In 2015, political conict among the worlds great powers is in play more than at any time since
the end of the Cold War. U.S. relations with Russia are now fully broken. China's powerful
President Xi Jinping is creating a new economy, and the eects will be felt across East Asia and
the rest of the world. Geopolitical uncertainty has Turkey, the Gulf Arab states, Brazil and India
hedging their bets.
But the years top risk is found in once placid Europe, where an increasingly fractured political
environment is generating new sources of conict.
1. The politics of Europe

These Are the Top 10 Geopolitical Risks of
RELATED European economics arent as bad as they were at the height

of the eurozone crisis in 2012, but the politics of the
continent are now much worse. Within key countries like
Britain and Germany, anti-EU political parties continue to
gain popularity, undermining the ability of governments to
deliver on painful but needed reforms. Friction is growing
among European states, as peripheral governments come to
increasingly resent the inuence of a strong Germany
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS unchecked by weak France or absent Britain. Finally, a
How World War II Shaped the resentful Russia and an aggressive ISIS will add to Europes
'Special Relationship' security worries.
Between the U.S. and U.K.
2. Russia
INTERNATIONAL Sanctions and lower oil prices have weakened Russia enough
RELATIONS to infuriate President Vladimir Putin, but not enough to
How World War II restrain his actions. Moscow will continue to put pressure on
Shaped the 'Special Ukraine, and as a result, U.S. and European sanctions will
Relationship'
Between the U.S. and tighten. As Russias economy sags, Putins approval ratings
will depend increasingly on his willingness to confront the
West. Western companies and investors are likely targets
on the ground and in cyberspace.
3. The eects of China slowdown
China's economic growth will slow in 2015, but it's all part of Xi's plan. His historically
ambitious economic reform eorts depend on transitioning his country to a consumer-driven
economic model that will demand levels of growth that are lower, but more sustainable. The
continuing slowdown should have little impact inside China. But countries like Brazil,
Australia, Indonesia and Thailand, whose economies have come to depend on booming trade
with a commodity-hungry China, will feel the pain.
4. The weaponization of nance
For the moment, the American public has had enough of wars and occupations, but the
Obama administration still wants to exert signicant inuence around the globe. Thats why
Washington is weaponizing nance on a new scale. The U.S. is using carrots (access to capital
markets) and sticks (varied types of sanctions) as tools of coercive diplomacy. The advantages
are considerable, but there is a risk that this strategy will damage U.S. companies caught in the
crossre between
TheseWashington and targeted
Are the Top 10 Geopolitical Risksstates.
of Transatlantic relations could suer for the
same reason.
5. ISIS, beyond Iraq and Syria
ISIS faces military setbacks in Iraq and Syria, but its ideological reach will spread throughout
the Middle East and North Africa in 2015. It will grow organically by setting up new units in
Yemen, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, and it will inspire other jihadist organizations to join its
ranksAnsar Bayt al Maqdas in Egypt and Islamists in Libya have already pledged allegiance
to ISIS. As the militant group's inuence grows, the risk to Sunni states like Saudi Arabia, the
United Arab Emirates and Egypt will rise.
6. Weak incumbents
Feeble political leaders, many of whom barely won reelection last year, will become a major
theme in 2015. Brazils Dilma Rousse, Colombias Juan Manuel Santos, South Africas Jacob
Zuma, Nigerias Goodluck Jonathan and Turkeys Recep Tayyip Erdogan will each face
determined opposition and formidable obstacles as they try to enact their political agendas.
7. The rise of strategic sectors
Global businesses in 2015 will increasingly depend on risk-averse governments that are more
focused on political stability than on economic growth, supporting companies that operate in
harmony with their political goals and punishing those that dont. Well see this trend in
emerging markets, where the state already plays a more signicant role in the economy, as well
as in rogue states searching for weapons to ght more powerful governments. But well also see
it in the U.S., where national security priorities have inated the military industrial complex,
which now includes technology, telecommunications and nancial companies.
8. Saudi Arabia vs Iran
The rivalry between Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia is the engine of conict in the Middle
East. Given the growing reluctance of Washington and other outside powers to intervene in the
region, increasingly complex domestic politics within these two countries and rising anxiety
about the ongoing negotiations over Irans nuclear program, we can expect Tehran and Riyadh
to use proxies to fuel trouble in more Middle Eastern countries than ever in 2015.
9. Taiwan/China
Relations between China and Taiwan will deteriorate sharply in 2015 following the opposition
Democratic Progressive Partys landslide victory over the ruling Nationalist Party in local
elections this past November. If China decides that its strategy of economic engagement with
Taiwan has failed to advance its ultimate goal of reunication, Beijing might well backtrack on
existing trade These Are the Top 10 deals
and investment Geopolitical
and Risks of
signicantly harden its rhetoric. The move would
surely provoke public hostility in Taiwan and inject even more anti-mainland sentiment into
the islands politics. Any U.S. comment on relations between China and Taiwan would quickly
increase resentment between Beijing and Washington.
10. Turkey
Lower oil prices have helped, but President Erdogan has used election victories in 2014 to try
to sideline his political enemiesof which there are manywhile remaking the countrys
political system to tighten his hold on power. But hes unlikely to win the authority he wants
this year, creating more disputes with his prime minister, weakening policy coherence and
worsening political unpredictability. Given the instability near Turkeys borders, where the war
against ISIS rages, thats bad news. Refugees from Syria and Iraq are bringing more radicalism
into the country and adding to economic hardship.
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2/3/2017 TheEurasiaGroupIdentifiestheTopGeopoliticalRisksfor2015|Time.

These Are the Top 10 Geopolitical Risks of 2015

1. The politics of Europe

RELATED European economics arent as bad as they were at the height

3. The eects of China slowdown

4. The weaponization of nance

5. ISIS, beyond Iraq and Syria

7. The rise of strategic sectors

8. Saudi Arabia vs Iran

These Are the Top 10 Geopolitical Risks of

Take a look what happened The

Can This Business Mogul Crush

61 Woman From Kuala Lumpur

What A Million Dollars Can Buy

AllNipponAirwayson crownwatchblog www.awesomerevenue.com Social Innovation Forum

These Are the Top 10 Geopolitical Risks of

These Are the Top 10 Geopolitical Risks of

These Are the Top 10 Geopolitical Risks of

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These Are the Top 10 Geopolitical Risks of

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These Are the Top 10 Geopolitical Risks of

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These Are the Top 10 Geopolitical Risks of

2017 Time Inc. All rights reserved.

These Are the Top 10 Geopolitical Risks of

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