CHINA-PAKISTAN JOINT THINK TANK

Working Paper: Regional geostrategic challenges and opportunities for China-Pakistan

cooperation.

Authors:
Owais Ahmed Ghani (former Governor Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) Senior Fellow
Mujahid Alam (Visiting Senior Advisor, UN Peacekeeping Department) Senior Fellow
Agha Ahmad Gul (Former Vice-Chancellor, University of Balochistan) Visiting Scholar
Ali Shah Senior Research and Policy Analyst

Printed in Pakistan by
The China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank
National University of Sciences & Technology
H-12
Islamabad
www.nust.edu.pk

China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank, established on 16 January, 2012, is a trilateral collaboration

between the National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Tsinghua
University, Beijing, and Southwest University of Political Science and Law (SWUPL),
Chongqing, China.

China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank, May 2013

All rights are reserved. For information and permission regarding the copyright contact China-
Pakistan Joint Think Tank.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors solely and do
not in any way reflect the views of the China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank or of the three
partner universities.

Cover and Layout design: Marketing and Communications Office, NUST

REGIONAL GEO-STRATEGIC CHALLENGES
AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR
CHINA-PAKISTAN COOPERATION
PRESIDENTS MESSAGE

Honorable Friends,

I am pleased to share with you the present Working Paper of the

China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank. This marks the beginning of a
series of analyses on various subjects of immediate relevance to
national development of Pakistan and China as well as regional
development based on a strong foundation of peace, stability and
prosperity. A multifaceted knowledge partnership between the Na-
tional University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad,
Tsinghua University, Beijing and Southwest University of Political
Science (SWUPL), Chongqing, China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank is
dedicated to extending the third mission of universities of contrib-
uting to economic growth and societal progress from the national
setting to the China-Pakistan bilateral relationship and regional co-
operation. The Working Paper adopts a systemic approach to the
challenges to and the opportunities for broadening the bilateral co-
operation. The Paper proposes a simple and workable framework
for ensuring peace in the region through broad-based China-Paki-
stan collaboration underpinned by mutual economic cooperation.
Also highlighted is the way in which other countries in the region
can benefit from this bilateralism between China as the worlds sec-
ond largest economy and Pakistan as the indispensable geopolitical
actor in the region. I sincerely hope that this analysis will contribute
to changing the currently dominant zero-sum tendency of geopoliti-
cal analysis in favour of a win-win analytical trend that transcends
either-or way of looking at relations amongst nations.

Amer Hashmi

President
China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank
REGIONAL GEO-STRATEGIC CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR
CHINA-PAKISTAN COOPERATION

CONTENTS
1. Executive summary
6
2. Introduction: The regional geopolitical dynamics
10
3. China and Pakistan: Mutual interdependence 12
4. Challenges as opportunities
13
4.1.
The US factor 13
4.2.
The Iranian factor 14
4.3.
The Afghan factor 15
4.4.
The Indian factor 16
4.5. Forging civil-military alliance in Pakistan for nation-building
17
4.6.
Limitations of bilateralism 18
4.7. Forging multilateralism 19
4.7.1 Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Russia
21
5. Proposed domestic strategy for China-Pakistan cooperation 23
6. Conclusion and recommendations 24
6.1.
Domestic front 25
6.2.
Regional front 25
6.3.
International front 26
6.4.
China-Pakistan front
26
Figure 1: The mega-region of China-Pakistan cooperation
28
Figure 2: Chinese Eurasian land bridges 29
References 29

CHINA-PAKISTAN JOINT THINK THANK WORKING PAPER 5

 1. Executive summary Eastern Arab States and Turkey for promoting
peace and stability in the region and offsetting
the destabilising regional currents in the wake
1. This Working Paper takes stock of the
of the Arab Spring.
geostrategic challenges and opportunities to
help Pakistan and China maximise their coop-
5. With Afghanistan, Pakistan requires
eration with a view to enhancing the possibili-
to mitigate the bilateral lack of trust that has
ties for peace and development in South and
marred relations between the two neighbours.
Central Asia. It aims to suggest ways that will
There is a need to highlight cultural affinity,
foster not only strategic cooperation between
common faith, geographic advantages, and
China and Pakistan, but also across the re-
the mutual interests in socio-economic devel-
gion with all interested actors. In this regard,
opment shared by the peoples and govern-
the Paper has underpinned the importance
ments of the two countries. The Paper advo-
of increased economic cooperation between
cates the development of strong relationships
China and Pakistan as the cornerstone of
with all the Central Asian Republics and the
both sustainable China-Pakistan relationship
establishment of ties based on common eco-
and enhanced regional development.
nomic and political interests.
2. This analysis tries to envision a wide
6. With India, the Paper tries to highlight
area of cooperation embracing Central Asia,
both the need and the potential for fostering
South Asia and also the Middle East, in which
peace simultaneously focusing on the ten-
multiple complementarities between Pakistan
dency of the relationship to slide back into the
and other countries are highlighted. For en-
past stalemate that is governed by historic
suring peace and stability in the region, it ar-
baggage. It also stresses the adverse im-
gues, there is a need to recognise the active
pact which Indian geopolitics can have on the
and positive role that each country can play
prospects for peace in the region.
in ensuring equality of status, prosperity, and
opportunity for progress and development
7. As a superpower with a global reach,
open to all countries. To this effect, it advo-
the US enjoys the status of a de-facto neigh-
cates that peace and stability can be ensured
bour of every country in the international sys-
through region-wide cooperation aimed at
tem. With the US, therefore, Pakistan needs
broad-based economic development.
to chalk out a relationship based on consider-
ation for each others concerns for furthering
3. For Pakistan, the goal is to ensure
regional cooperation.
peace, security, development and economic
growth inside and outside its borders by ac-
8. Russia is an important factor for the
tively cooperating with its immediate neigh-
promotion of regional peace and prosperity.
bours and the region at large. China is the key
Deepening of economic relations with Russia
strategic and economic partner of Pakistan.
can contribute significantly toward the capac-
There is a need to underpin the bilateral stra-
ity of Pakistan to play an effective role in pro-
tegic relationship with deeper economic coop-
moting cooperation in the region.
eration for broadening and deepening areas
of mutual cooperation.
9. The instinct for competition may be
judiciously transformed into an aspiration for
4. With Iran, the existing relationship
cooperation. The negative tendencies of com-
needs to be transformed into one that is capa-
petition also need to be curbed. There is par-
ble of maturely addressing international con-
tial convergence amongst various powers for
cerns and maximising the positive potential of
the goals of peace, prosperity and harmony in
Iran for promoting peace in Central Asia, Mid-
the region. It calls for the creation of substan-
dle East and South Asia. Pakistan may use
tive convergence and consensus not only on
its traditionally good relations with the Middle-
the shape of peace and stability but also on

6 REGIONAL GEO-STRATEGIC CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CHINA-PAKISTAN COOPERATION

the means employed for their achievement.
Win-win economic cooperation can be a way
forward in fostering substantial convergence
in the region.
10. Chinas peaceful development model
is a positive factor for domestic and regional
peace, progress, and stability. With the US,
China seems set to continue the policy of
peaceful co-existence, mutual trade-based
interdependencies and pre-emption of misun-
derstandings. Given the peaceful tendency of
Chinese foreign policy, therefore, it is expect-
ed that China will not contribute to the desta-
bilization of the evolving international system,
and will instead focus on ensuring that any
changes that may need to be made in the in-
ternational system are in a positive direction
and contribute to peace.
11. With Russia, China appears to be
continuing the policy of pragmatic coopera-
tion. This shall further find reinforcement due
to Chinas rising energy demands and Rus-
sias role as a major supplier of energy. This
mutual need-based cooperation shall in part
serve to increase Sino-Russian cooperation.
Sino-Russian cooperation will also focus on
the creation of a level playing field in the re-
gion to reduce the pressures for establishing
resident or non-resident hegemony in Cen-
tral Asia. Chinas relationship with Iran will
similarly be motivated by the formers energy
scarcity and will be influenced by the tense
US-Iran relations. With Central Asian Repub-
lics (CARs) too, China is carrying on and will
continue to conduct a foreign policy based on
helping the development of the CARs in ex-
change for their oil and gas reserves.
12. With India, China appears to be en-
gaging in a carefully orchestrated policy aimed
at encouraging India to be a positive player for
peace in the region that could persuade India
to moderate its geopolitical ambitions. Paki-
stan should think through the implications of
increased Sino-Indian trade and take advan-
tage of its positive outcomes.
13. Shanghai Cooperation Organization
(SCO) is a significant multilateral platform that
has the potential to help China and Pakistan
achieve their strategic aims and also guaran-
tee stability and peace in the region.
14. The Paper highlights the fact that Chi-
na-Pakistan cooperation in South and Central
Asia is the rational response to the regional
problems of war, terrorism, political instability,
economic stagnation, inter-state competition
and other related issues. China-Pakistan co-
operation may help turn partial into substan-
tive convergence through encouraging equal
and mutually beneficial broad-based coopera-
tion amongst all players in the region.
15. A wide-ranging China-Pakistan coop-
eration promoting both bilateralism and mul-
tilateralism will serve to bring about regional
growth, peace, prosperity and harmony. Some
recommendations in this regard are indicated
below:
Domestic front:
16. Actively pursue a policy of neutralising
militancy and associated extremist philoso-
phies and ideologies, and implement socio-
economic development programs on a fast-
track basis in backward and underdeveloped
regions in the country to build social and politi-
cal stability there.
17, Take all measures to achieve a sta-
ble and functional political system and culture
in the Country. A functional system shall be
clean and corruption-free, based on participa-
tory involvement of the people coupled with
responsible interactive interdependence of
powers rather than unrealistic separation of
powers in the domestic polity.
18. Improve governance by following uni-
versally acknowledged principles of admin-
istration to build a professional merit-based
bureaucracy and to define parameters of po-
litical oversight of government machinery.
19. Develop a new paradigm of govern-
ment based on public-private partnership,
especially, in economic and social sectors.
Typically, a PPP shall consist of the provision
CHINA-PAKISTAN JOINT THINK THANK WORKING PAPER 7
 of public service jointly funded by government
and private business. However, it needs to be
pointed out that since many types of PPPs,
depending upon the predominance of pub-
lic or private sector, are in existence it is ad-
vised to develop or select that form which is
a win-win option for the people, business and
government in Pakistan. In order for PPPs to
succeed, there needs to be present the ease
of doing business, transparency in public and
private transactions, strong regulatory capac-
ity in the public sector, and fair, speedy and
strong dispute-resolution systems.
Regional front:
20. Open bilateral talks now with all Af-
ghan ethno-political groups for building a
broad-based relationship with Afghanistan
in the post-US/NATO drawdown phase. This
should be carried out as a complementary
(not competitive) exercise in support of in-
ternational efforts to build peace and stabil-
ity in Afghanistan and restore normalcy in the
region. Historical Pak-Afghan relationship
should be made a basis for such an initiative.
This requires a separate bilateral effort in par-
allel to international efforts.
21. Resume front-channel track-one talks
with India on all issues including Kashmir and
water resources.
22. Open a diplomatic initiative with all
regional countries (Iran, UAE, Saudi Arabia,
CARs, Turkey, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri
Lanka, etc.) for taking them into confidence
regarding the proposed Pak-Afghan bilateral
talks and keeping them updated on it.
International front:
23. Pursue an energetic diplomatic initia-
tive to co-opt Saudi Arabia and Iran into ef-
forts to diffuse tensions and prevent the exac-
erbation of the already dangerous sectarian
strife, including the Shia-Sunni schism, within
the Muslim countries. Pakistan is the worst af-
fected in this regard and needs to focus its
energies in this direction.
8 REGIONAL GEO-STRATEGIC CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CHINA-PAKISTAN COOPERATION
24. Strengthen diplomatic relations with
EU countries to complement relations with the
US.
25. Open a focussed diplomatic initiative
with Russia with a view to getting over the
past and enabling the development of posi-
tive relationship between Russia and Paki-
stan leading to a wider regional cooperation.
China-Pakistan front:
26. Develop a broad internal consensus
on the proposed foreign policy and strategy of
Pakistan on China-Pakistan bilateral coopera-
tion and take Chinese leadership into confi-
dence. Establish comprehensive information-
sharing mechanisms to keep them updated.
27. The recent handing over of the Gwa-
dar Port operations to China Overseas Port
Holding Company is a very encouraging de-
velopment and must be followed up energeti-
cally.
28. Ensure peaceful environment for the
smooth Chinese management of the Gwadar
port to lead in time to city development, airport
and related infrastructure projects.
29. Pursue the Oil City Project, ship re-
fueling and re-supplying Hub, and wet and dry
dock facilities for international shipping near
Gwadar Port.
30. Establish a special security plan and
infrastructure for the coastal belt of Pakistan.
31. Move forward on the energy, trade,
transport and industrial corridor plans includ-
ing the expansion of Karakorum Highway.
32. Pursue development of dedicated in-
dustrial parks and special economic zones for
facilitating investment and joint venture indus-
trial projects.
33. A large proportion of Chinese invest-
ments in Pakistan is concentrated in the pub-
lic sector. More private sector investments
by China will help create a healthy balance
between public and private sector Chinese in-
vestments in Pakistan allowing China to com-
pete healthily with countries like the US and
UAE which invest more in the private sector in
Pakistan as compared to China.
34. The 2006 China-Pakistan Five-Year
Development Programme for Trade and Eco-
nomic Cooperation should be fully realised.
This means initiating bilateral projects in all
the sectors identified in the Development Pro-
gramme i.e., Agriculture, Energy, Science and
Technology, Industry, Manufacturing, Min-
erals, ICT, Engineering Services, Technical
Cooperation, Education (setting up an Engi-
neering University with Chinese support and
participation), and Infrastructure and Public
Works.
35. Pakistans East-West and North-
South National Energy, Trade, Transport and,
Industrial Corridor complements the plans for
the development of Western China. The Five-
Year Development Programme is a key to
unlocking the potential of this corridor for Chi-
na-Pakistan economic cooperation and the
development of Pakistan and Western China.
Therefore, dedicated cooperation should be
initiated on this particular point.
36. Foreign-funded terrorism and militan-
cy are real and present dangers to the stabil-
ity of Pakistan and China as well as China-
Pakistan cooperation. China should enhance
Pakistans financial and operational capacity
to fight this menace and pacify Khyber Pak-
thukhwa (KPK) and Balochistan for increased
economic cooperation.
37. China-Pakistan cooperation should
prioritise balanced and mutually advanta-
geous trade through the 2006 China-Pakistan
Free Trade Agreement.
38. Energy cooperation between China
and Pakistan should be increased as a prel-
ude to the relocation of Chinese industry in
Pakistan and the integration of Pakistan in the
Global Production Networks (GPNs) of Chi-
nese multinationals.
39. In the context of energy cooperation,
both countries should increase cooperation
on building more dams on the Indus River,
relocation of re-conditioned power plants to
Pakistan, and renewable energy projects be-
tween China-Pakistan should be encouraged
so that Pakistans energy shortages can be
dealt with to facilitate economic cooperation.
The sale of two nuclear reactors to Pakistan is
a welcome decision in this regard and should
be followed up with appropriate moves in en-
ergy cooperation between the two countries.
40. Establish wider and deeper interaction
via think tank activity and academic contact
through increased University-to-University
cooperation. China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank
should increase joint activities between the
three collaborating universities i.e., Tsinghua
University, Beijing, National University of Sci-
ences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad,
and Southwest University of Political Science
and Law (SWUPL), Chongqing, China.
41. Develop a cadre of China experts in
Pakistans universities and think tanks. PhD
programmes in China Studies should be of-
fered in all Pakistani universities. Higher Edu-
cation Commission of Pakistan should take
necessary steps to introduce China Studies
and the formation of China experts in Paki-
stans higher education. Further, proper con-
sultative mechanism should be devised for
linking these China experts with relevant pol-
icy making bodies in the government. NUST
can take the initial steps in this regard through
the China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank.
42. China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank
should also devise ways of cooperating ac-
tively with the Chinese Academy of Sciences
(CAS) and facilitating increased contacts be-
tween CAS and the Pakistan Academy of Sci-
ences. This cooperation can find an immedi-
ate form in the setting up of the proposed and
agreed China-Pakistan Institute of Science
and Technology at NUST.
43. A six-monthly or annual publication/
journal should be inaugurated by the China-
Pakistan Joint Think Tank which: focuses on
CHINA-PAKISTAN JOINT THINK THANK WORKING PAPER 9
 China-Pakistan relations in a global context; subject, proved very helpful in terms of under-
highlights avenues and innovative means of standing the multiple dimensions of China-
economic and social collaboration; reports on Pakistan relationship and cooperation.
the activities of various China-Pakistan fora;
analyses world events with relevance for both
China and Pakistan and their relationship; and 2. Introduction: The
advocates the regional peace and prosperity
dividends of China-Pakistan relations. The regional geopolitical
role of chambers of commerce and industry
in China and Pakistan should be considered
dynamics
and explored to initiate and promote this ef-
47. Pakistan is strategically located be-
fort. China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank should
tween the twin forces of competition and col-
devise a strategy for it.
laboration in the mega-region that embraces
Central Asia, South Asia, Middle East, and
44. Tsinghua-NUST-SWUPL should also
Caucasus. Central Asia and South Asia form
announce an Annual Recognition Award to
two contiguous strategic sub-regions of this
one Pakistani national and one Chinese na-
mega-region1. Since the beginning of the 21st
tional for their efforts every year in promoting
century, these two sub-regions have formed
cooperation between the two countries, espe-
the focus of international politics as a result
cially in science, technology, higher education
of the US-NATO war on terror in Afghanistan,
and business.
the next-door presence of a rising China, a
post cold-war resurgent Russia, and the he-
45. Contrary to the views of the Western
gemonic pretensions of India. US war of terror
and Indian think tanks and analysts which
generally was seen in reality as the sole su-
confuse the proper path forward for China-Pa-
perpower usurping the strategic void available
kistan cooperation by claiming that economic
in Talibans Afghanistan and thus trying to ex-
cooperation shall gather momentum once
ude the strategic effects, including contain-
militancy and terrorism are completely curbed
ment of China and driving a wedge between
in Pakistan, it must be emphasised that mili-
China and Pakistan. Pakistan sits right in the
tancy and terrorism shall be defeated in Paki-
middle of this regional geo-political dynamics.
stan and stability secured in Xinjiang through
This dynamic force influences the complexion
increased China-Pakistan economic coopera-
of both the foreign policy and the national poli-
tion conducted simultaneously with combat-
tics of Pakistan.
ing extremism, militancy and terrorism. All
that needs to be done to understand this truth
48. The presence of big, middle and small
is to extend the logic of domestic develop-
powers in the regional politics both presents
ment of unstable regions inside any country
challenges and provides opportunities that
- which dictates that combating destabilising
create a cauldron of conflicting interests mak-
elements and development of disturbed re-
ing the region inherently unstable and vulner-
gions go hand in hand - to relations between
able to manipulation. Since ancient times, the
countries where bilateral relations between
region has been periodically agitated due to
China and Pakistan will prove a critical help in
the hegemonic struggles between powers.
defeating terrorism inside Pakistan.
Regardless of the size and magnitude of the
national power of the countries involved, it is
46. The Working Paper has benefitted
not possible for any country - not even the
from the views of Mr. Riaz Khokhar, former
big powers like the US, China and Russia - to
Foreign Secretary of Pakistan, given during
pursue its policies by acting unilaterally in the
three comprehensive consultative sessions
region. This has led to working alliances be-
with the authors. These sessions, in which
tween small and big powers based on mutual
Mr. Khokhar shared his vast diplomatic ex-
interests and common vision for the region.
perience and his first-hand knowledge of the

1
See figure 1 at the end of the paper.

10 REGIONAL GEO-STRATEGIC CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CHINA-PAKISTAN COOPERATION

49. Due to the constantly evolving con-
figuration of forces in existence in the region
since the 1950s, China and Pakistan have
found it mutually beneficial to work together
for the greater prosperity and peace of the re-
gion. This has resulted in a durable bilateral
strategic relationship aimed at the preserva-
tion of mutual interests. Like all nation-states,
however, the two countries face challenges
intertwined with opportunities that simultane-
ously strain and strengthen the bilateral rela-
tions. And therefore, the primary challenge
that China-Pakistan cooperation faces in the
region is to correctly understand and deal
with the destructive and constructive currents
which run across the region. Common un-
derstanding of challenges and opportunities
needs to be forged between the two friends in
this regard.
50. The conflicting and differing American
and Chinese notions of security are a potential
cause of instability in the region. The actions
considered defensive in nature by the Chi-
nese are precisely those which are thought
by the Americans to be aggressive and vice
versa (Kissinger 2012). The different strate-
gic interpretations will keep the possibility of
conflict alive. While it will hardly bring US and
China face-to-face and may even paradoxi-
cally result in increased cooperation between
the US and China to prevent such a face-off,
this difference of world-views can become dif-
ficult for their partners to handle, especially
Pakistan.
51. Related to this is the ever-alive pos-
sibility that there may after all be areas where
the US and China, despite their economic in-
terdependence, may not reach convergence.
Given the dynamic nature of international sys-
tem, it may not be advisable to pinpoint these
areas of non-convergence, but the principle
which will underpin this non-convergence
needs to be spelled out so that the subse-
quent identification of areas of non-conver-
gence between the US and China becomes
convenient; any initiative or area develop-
ments which will lead to a qualitative leap in
Chinese power with the prospect of outdoing
US overall superiority in military and econom-
2
Parallelism is used here to mean an equally cordial and strong relationship with two competing powers. Except the relation of
neutrality, this parallelism is usually short-lived and cannot be sustained over a long duration owing to the natural tendency of
nations towards competition.
ic power will be a point of non-convergence
of interests and policies between the US and
China. If Chinas relations with other nations
are the occasion or decisive steps in its gain-
ing the above-mentioned advantage over the
US, then those nations may witness them-
selves becoming involved in the great-power
proxy competition that may prove detrimental
to such nations and the regions where such
nations are located.
52. The nature of Pakistans current rela-
tionship with both China and the US is very
interesting. Unlike the Cold War and Afghan-
Soviet conflict, where Pakistan was clearly al-
lied with the US against the former Soviet Un-
ion, the situation today is markedly different.
Today, Pakistan enjoys a broad and durable
friendship with China and a critical but limited,
and at times troubled and defiant, alliance in
the war on terror with the US. Even during
the Cold War, Pakistan never compromised
its strong relationship with China at any cost
nor did it give up pursuing nuclear parity with
India. Occasionally, the interests of Pakistan
and USA have clashed in this war and the two
have been seen to work at cross purposes.
But this is no reason to believe that the US
and Pakistan cannot develop a greater un-
derstanding of their mutual interests in the re-
gion. Both China and the US need a strong re-
lationship with Pakistan to further their goals
in the region. Parallel relationships with the
US and China is Pakistans biggest challenge
and opportunity. Just as nature is said to ab-
hor vacuum, so does geopolitics discourage
parallelism2 and ambivalence.
CHINA-PAKISTAN JOINT THINK THANK WORKING PAPER 11
 3. China and
Pakistan: Mutual
interdependence
53. Pakistan is important for China be-
cause the latters geo-strategic needs in the
region, to an extent, are reliably provided for
by Pakistan. Pakistan is conscious of the fact
that China has always displayed a special
concern toward its neighbours. Pakistan, be-
ing a vital part of Chinas strategic periphery,
is, as always, fully committed to fully support
Chinas peaceful development policies and
prevent destabilization of Xinjiang from within
its borders by Uighur-related militancy. Pa-
kistan also recognises that China should be
afforded a broad-based mutually beneficial
opportunity of leveraging Pakistans geopo-
litical position to make up for the limitations
imposed by its own geography.
54. Relationship of China with Pakistan is,
therefore, very important because it enables
China to both limit the regional ambitions of
India and enhance its standing with India. The
purpose is not to antagonise India but direct
the potential force of regional relations to be-
come advantageous for China and Pakistan.
Indias Pakistan obsession and its territorial
disputes, reinforced by Indian hegemonic as-
pirations, strengthen ties between China and
Pakistan so that Indias anti-Pakistan ambi-
tions can be kept under check. It is important
to mention here that the US has not been in-
terested in offering a credible security to Paki-
stan in this regard.
55. The rise of China compels Beijing to
influence the regional game to suit the needs
of its own development and security while
keeping a light security footprint. The regional
strategy, from Chinas viewpoint, consists in
creating a synergy of cooperation with the
Central Asian Republics and the surrounding
countries. China intends to establish a benefi-
cial network of trade and energy coupled with
a focus on programmes for the domestic de-
velopment of its regional partners.
3
See Figure 2 at the end.
12 REGIONAL GEO-STRATEGIC CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CHINA-PAKISTAN COOPERATION
56. America, however, is focused on main-
taining a situation in which it remains the pre-
dominant player in regional geopolitics in this
region. In this regard, it is determined to main-
tain a military presence in the area, especially
in Afghanistan. It is actively pursuing a stra-
tegic relationship with India to prop it up as a
regional power player with a view to checking
Chinas access to the Arabian Sea and the
Persian Gulf via Pakistan. This has also given
India a convenient umbrella to pursue its own
traditional hostile agenda against Pakistan.
Notwithstanding the alliance with Pakistan
in the war on terror, the US is employing all
means, both overt and covert, to pressure Pa-
kistan into supporting its geo-political agenda
in the region and push Pakistan into accepting
a subordinate role to India. At the very least, it
seeks to keep Pakistan and Afghanistan in a
destabilised and anarchic state to achieve is
geo-political goals.
57. Pakistan, in this situation, provides the
South Asian buttress to the positive geopoliti-
cal networking of China and Central Asia. It
can further contribute to the success of Chi-
nese plans for the development of Central
Asia through its own domestic development
and increased trade, transport and energy
links with Western China, Iran, Afghanistan
and Central Asia.
58. Pakistan stands to benefit and is,
therefore, deeply interested in enhancing the
overall effect of Chinas investments in Cen-
tral Asia through the development of its na-
tional energy, trade, industrial, and transport
corridors leading to greater multi-faceted re-
gional connectivity of which China will be one
of the key beneficiaries. As a consequence of
this development, Pakistan can also benefit
from connectivity to Chinese-built rail-based
land bridges linking Chinese cities of Shang-
hai and Chongqing to European ports like
Rotterdam and Antwerp (Engdahl 2012)3.
59. This connectivity, which would allow
China to cut a passage through land for the
movement of goods and services to and from
China, provides an alternative to US-dominat-
ed international waters. US domination of the
Strait of Malacca, through which 80% Chinese
oil supplies move, is a chokepoint for China
and a fact to be faced. Indian naval assertions
in the Andaman Sea at the northern ingress
into the Malacca Strait are a further exten-
sion of US strategy to control Indian Ocean
maritime lanes. Fortunately, Gwadar and Or-
mara in Pakistan provide the shortest and
most cost-effective oil supply routes from the
Persian Gulf to China in addition to providing
short and fast sea-borne access to Africa and
Mediterranean. Other strategic chokepoints
in the Indian Ocean like the Strait of Mandeb
and Strait of Hormuz also need a strong focus
along with the Strait of Lombak that mediates
between Java Sea and Indian Ocean.
60. A successful China-Pakistan sym-
biosis, as indicated above, would therefore
reconfigure the arena in South Asia, Central
Asia and Indian Ocean which would persuade
the US to be more accommodative towards
China-Pakistan synergy in the region and also
lead India to develop a more balanced and re-
alistic relationship with its neighbourhood. It
will also give confidence to small states in the
region, especially, energy-rich CARs, who,
because of their experience with Soviet he-
gemonism, are intrinsically wary of big power
overtures. This confidence will make them
strong supporters and partners of China-
Pakistan cooperation when they would see a
functional and mutually beneficial China-Paki-
stan relationship which promotes rather than
diminishes Pakistans sovereignty.
61. Kazakhstan, the biggest Central Asian
Republic, would naturally move to carve out
a position of pre-eminence in Central Asia, at
least, by trying to benefit from the space for
manouvre liable to be created by the compet-
ing policies and agendas of China, US and
Russia in the region. Kazakhstan is also the
biggest repository of oil and gas reservoirs in
Central Asia and is an important part in exist-
ing and future land bridges with Russia and
EU. Chinas investments in oil and gas sup-
plies from Kazakhstan can benefit Pakistan
as well.
62. Afghanistans continued status as a
key theatre of war has the considerable poten-
tial to change the precarious balance of mili-
tary forces in the region in favour of the power
that more effectively influences Afghanistan,
both economically and militarily. Such a power
will be able to determine the extent and direc-
tion of regional integration which is naturally
influenced by Afghanistans geostrategic posi-
tion. It will also influence Pakistans regional
policy significantly. In the present scenario,
the US is using its presence in Afghanistan to
reconfigure both Central Asia and South Asia
to suit the goal of American global predomi-
nance.
4. Challenges as
opportunities
4.1. The US factor
63. The present US-NATO war in Afghani-
stan has already embroiled Pakistan since the
mid-2000s. The on-going US-NATOs Afghan
war against the Afghan Taliban is being used
to further rearrange geopolitical configuration
to the advantage of US-NATO. It is a foregone
conclusion that the US presence in Afghani-
stan will be redesigned to become an effec-
tive element of its strategy of encirclement of
China and Russia. The much-hyped US with-
drawal will only be a drawdown in the number
of US troops on ground in Afghanistan. The
US shall continue to maintain a credible mili-
tary presence in Afghanistan probably com-
prising ten to fifteen thousand Special Opera-
tions forces capable of dealing with both the
risks of propping up a weak Afghan govern-
ment and regional terrorist threats (Sanger
2012). It will also readily facilitate huge rein-
forcements against any strategic ambitions
that may threaten US primacy in the region.
64. An aspect of the current war in Afghan-
istan that escapes the attention of many is the
fact that, in many ways, this war is becoming
increasingly similar to the Opium Wars waged
by the European colonial powers of the eight-
eenth and nineteenth centuries. Over the past
CHINA-PAKISTAN JOINT THINK THANK WORKING PAPER 13
 decade, under US and NATO watch, Afghani-
stan has progressed from zero opium cultiva-
tion to becoming the worlds major supplier of
opium-based narcotics. Today, Afghanistan is
practically a narco-state supplying more than
90% of the worlds demand for opiates valued
at over US$40 billion annually, with around
US$60 billion generated in revenue for traf-
fickers in 2009 from Afghan opiates (United
Nations Office on Drugs and Crime 2010,
2011). Narco-money is now providing huge
resources to terrorist outfits in this region as
well as non-accountable funds for hostile for-
eign intelligence agencies pursuing their sub-
versive agendas in the region. It is puzzling
that US and NATO allowed this to happen
under their noses and that they have no vis-
ible plans, either short- term or long-term, to
tackle this narcotic menace. Afghanistan as a
narco-state is a sure recipe for a failed state
which will continue to feed criminality and in-
stability into the region.
65. US strategic outlook considers Ameri-
can intervention in the regions surrounding
China and Russia as the most credible guar-
antee for ensuring stability in the Sino-Russian
regional neighbourhood and believes that the
security of a number of weaker states located
geographically next to major regional powers
depends (even in the absence of specific US
commitments to some of them) on the inter-
national status quo reinforced by Americas
global pre-eminence (Brzezinski 2012). This
strategic mind-set is enough to put at rest any
false hopes regarding American intentions
to withdraw any time soon from Afghanistan
or from the region at large. The continued
presence of US military forces and bases in
Afghanistan is a sure recipe for continued
conflict and anarchy in the region which will
negatively impact all plans for peaceful eco-
nomic development of the region. Such a situ-
ation poses the biggest challenge to China-
Pakistan cooperation. However, there is no
other viable option but to assiduously pursue
this cooperation, predominantly in the non-
military aspects, as a counterweight to Ameri-
can military presence in the region to be able
to create a strong basis for future peace in Af-
ghanistan and the region.
14 REGIONAL GEO-STRATEGIC CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CHINA-PAKISTAN COOPERATION
66. Pakistan, therefore, faces multiple
geostrategic challenges in military and non-
military forms. As the most powerful country
in the current inter-state system, US shall try
to maintain its global supremacy at all costs.
Americas unparalleled economic suprema-
cy in the world will increasingly come to be
challenged by China as it continues its rise,
though at present China is far behind the US.
America is already apprehensive of resur-
gent post-Soviet Russia, and, if past history
is any guide, the potential for competition will
be the dominant tendency in US-Russia and
Russia-NATO relations, the veneer of coop-
eration notwithstanding. This will recreate the
old Cold War dynamics where the US may
increasingly view China as a counter-weight
against Russia. This will create favourable
conditions for China and Pakistan. However,
the benefits of China-Russia-Pakistan nexus,
if it succeeds in developing, will be greater.
67. Nevertheless, America has always
perceived China warily. Chinas sustained
rapid economic development has driven it to
the top of US global security agenda and has
resulted in what has been termed the US pivot
to Asia. Perhaps the only other country that
is of an equally high concern to the Ameri-
can security establishment is Russia. The US
defence review, unveiled in January, 2012,
and titled, Sustaining US Global Leadership:
Priorities for 21st Century Defense, poses
China as the ace US defence concern and
envisages US Defence posture will of ne-
cessity rebalance toward Asia-Pacific. This
review further states, China and Iran will con-
tinue to pursue asymmetric means to counter
our [American] power projection capabilities
... Accordingly the U.S. military will invest as
required to ensure its ability to operate effec-
tively in anti-access and area denial (A2/AD)
environments. This Asia Pivot is designed to
curtail any future Russian movement in Asia-
Pacific as well.
4.2. The Iranian factor
68. The real core of US animosity with Iran
is the latters courageous stand for its own in-
dependently defined ideals of social and po-
litical sovereignty without serving American
interests at the expense of its own welfare.
Iran is also projected as the biggest present
threat to the security of Israel, which, for all
practical purposes, is an extension of Amer-
icas security. Owing to a preponderance of
Zionist influence in American economic and
political spheres, the US considers any threat,
projected or real, to Israel as a threat to itself.
Pakistan, being the sole Muslim country with
operational nuclear capability, is also consid-
ered a potential threat in this regard by the
US. Therefore, any Iran-Pakistan symbiosis is
viewed with high discomfort and fear on the
Capitol Hill.
4.3. The Afghan factor
69. India will continue to undermine
any Pakistani effort to mend fences with Af-
ghanistan. It was India which supported the
Northern Alliance (NA), even in the UN, while
Taliban ruled over 90% of Afghanistan. It is in-
structive to note here that it was India and the
Northern Alliance which assisted the US inva-
sion of Afghanistan in 2001. It will suppress
any Afghan desire to normalise relations with
Pakistan through injections of newly accu-
mulated Indian finance capital and contrived
evocation of the past friction between Paki-
stan and Afghanistan. The US war on terror
has provided an opportunity to India to con-
solidate its position in Kabul due to the domi-
nation of the Northern Alliance there. Regard-
less of the misguided convergence of Indian
and Afghan interests with regard to Pakistan,
Indias ability to influence Afghanistan will
prove less effective in the face of a sustained
Pakistani initiative to utilise cultural common-
alities, locational complementarities, econom-
ic interdependence, and the re-emergence of
Taliban as responsible power sharers in a fu-
ture Afghan dispensation.
70. The attraction that Afghanistan should
feel in a good relationship with Pakistan has
been weakened by factors like the war on ter-
ror. Pakistans success lies in playing its part
for a peaceful Afghanistan and then making
it a durable ally of Pakistan which has not
historically been the case. Pakistan should,
therefore, seek to befriend the Northern Al-
liance and thus aim at the prevention of the
accumulation of second-order power in Indian
hands over Afghanistan by strengthening its
bilateral relationship with Afghanistan, by re-
vitalising once-strong Pakistan-Iran relations
and by bringing Afghanistan closer to China.
71. The mutual advantages of a deeper
Pak-Afghan cooperation should be high-
lighted. Indo-Afghan relationship, mainly fo-
cused on the Northern Alliance, cannot be
half as useful to Afghanistan when the pash-
tuns, who form almost 50% of the population
of Afghanistan, rejoin governance and the
Northern Alliance shrinks to its due size in
politics. Also, Pakistan should stress the pros
of geographical contiguity in its dialogue with
Afghan leaders. A stable Pak-Afghan relation-
ship can open the doors for accelerated de-
velopment of Afghanistan, Central Asia and
Pakistan where Chinas involvement in this
process of integrated regional development
will act as a catalyst. This would dovetail ide-
ally with Chinas own development as well.
This will also allow Pakistan to gain access
across the Wakhan Corridor, which separates
Pakistan from Tajikistan, for reaching out to
Central Asia and becoming a reliable partner
in Chinas developmental strategy in the re-
gion.
72. Pakistan should, therefore, expedite
socio-economic bridging with Western China
and build complementary bridges into Central
Asia both through Afghanistan and Iran to link
up with Chinas vision of progress for Central
Asia. Troubles in Xinjiang and Muslim-led ter-
rorism will cause serious friction in the smooth
development of China-Pakistan strategic and
economic relationship. In fact, Pakistan fully
recognises that the development of a strong
economic relationship with China depends
on the formers ability to completely defeat
militancy, terrorism and foreign-funded seces-
sionist insurgency in Balochistan and assist
China secure stability in Xinjiang, which is
a core Chinese national interest. Therefore,
Pakistan is fully committed to helping China
achieve stability in Xinjiang. The causes for
friction have been, and will continue to be, ad-
CHINA-PAKISTAN JOINT THINK THANK WORKING PAPER 15
 dressed with vigour.
73. Currently, the war in Afghanistan is
proving unwinnable and costly for the US-NA-
TO which has prompted the US to announce a
withdrawal/drawdown by 2014. A post-exit or
post-drawdown scenario would mean consid-
erable security challenges for Pakistan. More-
over, the ruling consciousness in the Afghan
Establishment and Government perceives
Pakistan as an adversary rather than an ally.
It will of necessity involve showing the actu-
ally desperate situation on ground in Afghani-
stan as under control and blaming Pakistan
for providing sanctuary and support to Taliban
so as to shift the responsibility for a failed mili-
tary campaign from US-NATO squarely onto
Pakistan. This will exacerbate these adverse
perceptions even further. In order to deal with
adversarial Afghan perceptions, Pakistan
needs to promote a broad-based Afghan-led
consensus for peace in Afghanistan. Paki-
stans attempt at fostering Afghan-led peace
process will be facilitated by the fact that there
is a US-sanctioned realisation in Kabul that
Pakistan has a critical role to play to help the
reconciliation process between Taliban and
the current Afghan administration (Shaikh
2013).
74. One way of strengthening the desire
for a strong relationship with Pakistan in the
hearts of Afghans may be to bring order and
security to Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtun Khwa
(KPK) and Federally Administered Tribal Ar-
eas (FATA). In order for Pakistan to reap the
maximum benefit from its relationship with Af-
ghanistan, the Taliban (TTP) militancy needs
to be defeated followed by the reintegration
of the former Taliban militants into society.
As a part of this strategy, development must
take place on an emergency basis in FATA,
affected areas of KPK and Balochistan, more
quickly and more abundantly than it does in
Afghanistan. However, militancy in KPK and
Balochistan, fostered by foreign elements,
must end for this development strategy to be
successful.
75. The accelerated development of the
two provinces, and especially the whole Pak-
16 REGIONAL GEO-STRATEGIC CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CHINA-PAKISTAN COOPERATION
Afghan border belt, should take place on an
urgent basis. It is needed to develop physi-
cal and social infrastructures there like roads,
schools, colleges, universities, hospitals, etc.
The development of border-town markets
should be fast-tracked and be linked to the
national markets of both Pakistan and Af-
ghanistan to allow Afghan traders to partici-
pate actively in these cross-border integrated
markets. Chinese support and investments
can prove crucial in this development strategy
but this is conditional upon the establishment
of peace and defeat of foreign-fomented ter-
rorism.
76. The desire for participation in the
booming economy next-door can be a strong
motivation for Afghans to respond favourably
to sincere friendly overtures of Pakistan. Is-
lamabad may also help rebuild dilapidated
higher educational infrastructure of Afghani-
stan and perhaps use the successful experi-
ence of Pakistans Higher Education Commis-
sion to rehabilitate Afghan higher education.
4.4. The Indian factor
77. Pakistan needs to take special care of
Balochistan, Sind and KPK as they may be
vulnerable to external attempts at destabili-
sation. Pakistans nuclear capability should
deter India from military invasion aimed at
achieving strategic goals. However, Indian
Army Chief has been talking about limited
military incursions under nuclear umbrella.
This amply proves Indias covert involvement
in spreading anarchy inside Pakistan. There-
fore, India is actively pursuing and supporting
terrorist and militant elements and fanning
ethnic and sectarian tensions inside Pakistan.
It is also actively teaming up with anti-Paki-
stan elements within and without in a cam-
paign of vilification of Pakistan and its impor-
tant national institutions, especially Pakistans
military and associated intelligence agencies.
78. India is pursuing a two-pronged policy
consisting of encirclement and of destabilising
the core of Pakistans sovereignty from within.
The fact remains that peace in Balochistan
and KPK is not possible as long as the war
on terror continues and instability continues
to be fomented by foreign factors. The real
challenge is to counter all such efforts with
superior strategy executed with efficiency and
perseverance.
79. Apart from Kashmir and other unre-
solved issues, water is another contentious
problem between India and Pakistan. Short-
age of water can have adverse socio-eco-
nomic and geopolitical effects and, therefore,
needs to be addressed with urgency and firm-
ness.
80. India is misusing its new-found post-
9/11 role in Afghanistan in two ways. First, its
economic assistance package to Afghanistan,
primarily run by the Northern Alliance and
Tajiks to the detriment of the majority of pash-
tuns, is geared to undermining Pak-Afghan
relationship and second, in Afghanistan, it is
using Afghan territory to coordinate destabili-
zation and balkanization activities inside Paki-
stan.
81. Geopolitically, the emphasis of Indi-
an diplomacy is on minimizing pro-Pakistan
goodwill among Pakistans neighbours and
other countries in the region. India shall con-
tinue to further its anti-Pakistan agenda by en-
tering into extensive economic, defence and
cultural agreements with US, EU, Afghani-
stan, Iran, Central Asian Republics (CARs)
and Russia.
82. India shall continue to provide maxi-
mum possible support to secessionist, sepa-
ratist, and ethnic movements. As mentioned
above, it is impossible to ignore the Indian
hand in the aggravation of the troubles in Ba-
lochistan and in Gilgit-Baltistan. In this regard,
Pakistan can learn from modern Chinese stra-
tegic thought which holds that external caus-
es become operative mainly through internal
causes. Pakistan must seek internal stabil-
ity by promoting equity-based development
in the country through an efficient system of
good governance. Domestic peace and har-
mony should be one of its top priorities.
83. There is also a need to hold India in
tight embrace; so close that hurting Pakistan
would mean hurting themselves. This would
entail Pakistans highly pro-active participa-
tion in all the forums where India is active too
and engaging India on all fronts. This also
means close monitoring of Indian initiatives
because India will pursue multiple options to
weaken Pakistan and, more especially, un-
dermine China-Pakistan relationship.
84. Pakistan should, therefore, not has-
ten in giving India the Most Favoured Nation
(MFN) status. India stands to gain more than
Pakistan in any bilateral trade partnership
since the former is a much bigger country
with the ability to completely paralyse domes-
tic production in Pakistan through its export-
based economies of scale. Pakistan should
adopt a cautious trade policy based on a se-
lective list of products with carefully worked-
out trade volumes in order to protect its do-
mestic manufacturing base. It should be kept
in mind that Pakistan has a huge youth bulge
which is adding about 2 million youth per an-
num to the job market. Only the industrial sec-
tor is capable of absorbing this growing labour
force because the trade sector generates
comparatively less jobs. A mindless granting
of MFN status to India will also weaken Paki-
stans negotiating strength on other outstand-
ing issues and disputes with India.
85. Pakistan should simultaneously es-
tablish strong regional trade and diplomatic
links with countries like Nepal, Bangladesh,
Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and other Southeast
Asian nations in general in the same manner
as India is doing with Pakistans neighbours
and CARs. India shall invest in all opportuni-
ties to score against Pakistan. Its support for
Russias project to build a North-South Trans-
port Corridor the competitor of Gwadar pro-
ject through Iran is an example of it.
4.5. Forging civil-military
alliance in Pakistan for nation-
building
86. Given Pakistans history of strained
and hostile relationship between the political
CHINA-PAKISTAN JOINT THINK THANK WORKING PAPER 17
 leadership class and the military, it is impera-
tive that measures be undertaken to dispel an-
imosity and distrust between them and build a
harmonious political-military working relation-
ship based on mutual respect and confidence.
This is perhaps Pakistans biggest internal
political challenge. In this respect, the ball
is firmly in the court of politicians because a
harmonious and beneficial political-military al-
liance is only possible if we have a competent,
honest and visionary political leadership inter-
ested in the welfare of people and interested
in building a sustainable civil-military alliance.
In the absence of a wise political leadership,
the task of building a civil-military alliance
would be very difficult, though not impossible.
Building this civil-military alliance in the ab-
sence of visionary political leadership would
be predicated on the Pakistan Armed Forces
volunteering to actively participate in suitable
nation-building activities on a non-political ba-
sis in addition to their overall defence respon-
sibilities.
87. Pakistan, at the moment, is suffering
from a fragmentation syndrome in which the
various elements of power are neither uni-
fied nor optimally synchronized. State as a
mechanism of social cohesiveness has tra-
ditionally and historically performed the func-
tion of a machine that transforms capabilities
of a nation into national power. However, the
Pakistani state has not been able to perform
this function as a result of which different el-
ements of national power like, geography,
natural resources, industrial capacity, military
preparedness, population, inter-class collabo-
ration, social cohesion, national character,
diplomacy, national morale and government
(Morgenthau 1985) are at cross-purposes.
88. As mentioned above, external causes
collude with internal causes to destabilise any
national polity. A strong civil-military relation-
ship in this situation would be critical for put-
ting our own house in order, improving gov-
ernance and internal stability, for intensifying
China-Pakistan relationship and for building
the momentum necessary for Pakistan to re-
alise its geopolitical advantages maximally. In
this regard, the deep bonds between China
18 REGIONAL GEO-STRATEGIC CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CHINA-PAKISTAN COOPERATION
and Pakistan, both in the civil and military sec-
tors, could prove to be useful in catalysing a
positive movement in the desired direction.
4.6. Limitations of bilateralism
89. Pakistan can never become compla-
cent in its friendship toward China. However,
Pakistans relationship with the US, if not
wisely conducted, may become a sticking
point in China-Pakistan friendship. Pakistan
has to remember that China-US relationship
plays itself out on two terrains i.e., economic
and strategic (Saunders 2005). The US en-
joys a predominance on the military-strategic
terrain. China is gradually and surely witness-
ing expansion on the economic terrain though
still it is far behind the US .
90. Pakistans continuing and prolonged
involvement as a front-line state in the war
on terror has the potential, from the Chinese
perspective, to upset the equilibrium that pro-
visionally exists between the two terrains of
US-China relationship and embroil China into
a premature conflict in the region. An unpre-
dictable situation would arise if Pakistan spi-
rals out of control. This may either increase
cooperation or escalate tensions between US
and China.
91. There is no doubt that China and Pa-
kistan enjoy a strong strategic relationship
which translates into extensive military co-
operation between the two countries yet one
must recognise the limitations of China-Paki-
stan military cooperation for two reasons.
92. First, although this cooperation can
prove to be a deterrence of sorts against, say,
Indian aggression, yet it cannot prove to be
much of a shield against the preponderant
American force projection capability. United
States possesses visible and durable superi-
ority over China in some areas, particularly in
economy, technology and military. Industrial
production of the US which, in 2006, even af-
ter reduction and shift of industry overseas,
was twice the size of Japan and larger than
Japans and Chinas industries combined;
Americas oil production was third behind only
Saudi Arabia and Russia and natural gas pro-
duction of America was second only to Russia
whereas China is heavily dependent on for-
eign sources of energy to fuel the extraordi-
nary needs of its rapidly expanding domestic
economy; Americas population density was
one of the most favourable in the world at 31
per square kilometre way behind the world av-
erage of 49 per square kilometre while that of
China was 140; America is the only country
in the world that has absolute control of two
oceans whereas China does not enjoy this
two-ocean advantage (Friedman 2009: 16-
17)4.
93. Moreover, the technological edge of
America is unquestioned; while China is still
trying to catch up with the US in the field of
technology and busy building the tools of
asymmetric power projection, chances are
that America may have broken through the
known technological frontier such as the abil-
ity to militarise space, production of bionic
military capabilities through human-techno-
logical integration, natural disaster-activation
capabilities through seismic and meteoro-
logical manipulation, advanced forms of psy-
chological warfare, cyber warfare, weapons
based on Nano-Bio-Information-Cognitive
technological convergence, etc. US defence
expenditure is also greater than the combined
military expenditure of the next ten economies
which include those of China, Russia and In-
dia (Stockholm International Peace Research
Institute 2012).
94. Second, China-Pakistan military co-
operation is conditional and contingent on the
changing complexion of US-China relation-
ship. It could be argued that this military co-
operation was primarily initiated in a different
world environment of the Cold War when Chi-
na was confronted with an India-Soviet axis,
on one hand, and Pacific US-Taiwan security
perimeter, on the other. The first thrust is long
extinct now but replaced to some extent by
a US-India axis; the second perimeter is un-
predictable and potentially unstable owing to
US rebalancing of its force projection capa-
bilities from the Atlantic to Pacific Ocean and
the potential for instability in South China Sea,
4
USA recorded a Gross National Income (GNI) of USD 14,645.6 billion in 2010 while China had a GNI of USD 5720.8 billion for
the same year (World Bank 2012). The difference was even greater in per capita terms for the same year; US had a per capita
GNI of USD 47,340 compared to USD 4270 of China (World Bank 2012).
south of Taiwan. However, the trend of future
developments in this sphere may lead to out-
comes in which US and China may reach
some sort of accommodation due to an over-
riding concentration of Chinese ability to claim
reintegration of Taiwan with China. The logic
of economic relations between China and Tai-
wan may also lead to some form of mutually
acceptable confederation which satisfies Chi-
nese demands for reunification and Taipeis
insistence on autonomy.
95. Renegotiating a constructive, mature
and less ad-hoc relationship with the US will
help Chinese peaceful development. This
could even make it possible for China and
US to work together to counter the foreign
elements of destabilization in Pakistan, espe-
cially in Balochistan. Pakistan will thus benefit
from the peaceful rise of China and be afford-
ed an opportunity to acquire regional promi-
nence as a consequence of the rise of China
as a global superpower.
4.7. Forging multilateralism
96. China has also expressed its interest
in South Asian cooperation and has shown
keen interest to cooperate with SAARC, since
2007 at least (Hailin 2009). This move to di-
versify its approach from one-to-one bilater-
alism to multilateral regional cooperation can
lead to more enhanced cooperation between
China and Pakistan if the two countries mu-
tually reinforce each others regional outlook.
This can happen through Pakistans support
for SAARC membership of China and China
supporting SCO membership for Pakistan.
This bilateral reciprocity for furthering multi-
lateralism will strengthen China-Pakistan re-
lationship. Multilateral cooperation shall also
benefit China because countries, like individu-
als, thrive on the goodwill of their friends.
97. China will be enabled to engage India
constructively through and in SAARC. This will
help in countering the growing Indo-US nexus
in the region and make the Indian Ocean less
contentious and provide a relatively smooth
sailing to the advancement of Chinese in-
terests in the region. Pakistan can comple-
CHINA-PAKISTAN JOINT THINK THANK WORKING PAPER 19
 ment Chinese efforts to engage with SAARC
through accentuating multilateral realism and
capitalising on the US acknowledgment of
the significance of Pakistan in Afghanistan
(Akram 2009). Chinas becoming a SAARC
member may also reinvigorate the grouping
that has been rendered ineffective due to In-
dian hegemonic ambitions, thereby helping it
get out of the rut of non-achievement in which
it seems to be perennially stuck due to Indian
intransigence.
98. The expansionist trend of Indian for-
eign policy, that the US is now trying to har-
ness for its New Silk Route Initiative to be
used against China and help US further its
strategic aims in the region, can also be coun-
tered effectively through the SAARC member-
ship of China and SCO membership of Paki-
stan. Otherwise, there is a possibility that this
Indo-US axis may become a future instrument
to challenge Chinese access to Central Asia,
Caucasus and beyond to Europe and help
in choking access to the Strait of Malacca
through the Andaman Sea.
99. To dominate through conflict is NA-
TOs speciality; and the absence of peace
in Afghanistan and the on-going problem of
isolation imposed on Iran increase the chal-
lenges for Pakistan, especially to its plans
for closer integration with the region. On the
other hand, US-NATO is bound by the logic of
its own interests to promote the economic de-
velopment of the region which presupposes
enhanced trade in the region. But the aspira-
tions of the countries and peoples inhabiting
the region may run counter to the underlying
realities of US-NATOs promotion of develop-
ment.
100. As these contradictions play out, it will
be witnessed that NATO, which is essentially
a defence-based organisation, will find it hard-
er to navigate peace than to act in conflict.
This is the gap where Chinas strategy and
resources for the development of the region
may also work in favour of peace.
101. This situation does provide China-Pa-
20 REGIONAL GEO-STRATEGIC CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CHINA-PAKISTAN COOPERATION
kistan with the framework for regional integra-
tion that can be utilized and influenced through
wise conduct and management of geopolitics.
The New Silk Road Initiative of the US State
Department should be viewed pragmatically
and if possible, co-opted constructively and
subordinated to China-Pakistan-led regional
integration.
102. 9/11 gave a license to the US to ex-
pand its global military reach, threat and ap-
plication of force in the name of pre-emption
but the limits imposed by the very interna-
tional Westphalian nation-state system which
the US dominates, have restricted its power to
redraw the geostrategic map to its preference.
So far, this dialectical relationship between
the logic of the system and the preferences of
the most powerful element in the system has
opened up a new field of action for emerging
global powers like China and regionally impor-
tant players like Pakistan. This helps China-
Pakistan cooperation to improve its strategic
position by promoting peace and multi-polari-
ty in the global inter-state system. China is al-
ready meaningfully utilizing this systemic limit
to the extension of US power not only in the
region but in the world at large by promoting
multilateral engagement to solve tensions in
the inter-state system.
103. Pakistan should follow Chinas lead
and pursue multilateralism to build protec-
tive relationships with countries in different
regions. It has already been pointed out that
building such multilateral relationships in
Southeast Asia and East Asia with countries
like Myanmar, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia
etc., will allow China-Pakistan cooperation to
deepen and provide a meaningful foil to ag-
gressive Indian overtures towards Central
Asia. Using second-order neighbourhood re-
lations with Central Asia, Southeast Asia and
East Asia would increase Pakistans geopo-
litical options. It shall also allow Pakistan to
escape the rough edges of American foreign
policy based on domination and subordination
to American interests.
4.7.1.
Shanghai Cooperation Or- 108. As China continues to rise economi-
cally, its foreign policy has witnessed in-
ganization and Russia
creased confidence manifested in the shift
from non-interference to creative involve-
104. A very interesting passage occurs in
ment; a shift from bilateral to multilateral di-
Sun Tzus, Art of War which says,
plomacy; a shift from reactive to preventa-
Land that is surrounded on three sides by
tive diplomacy; and a move away from strict
competitors and would give the first to get it
nonalignment toward semi-alliances (Baker
access to all the people on the continent is
and Zhang 2012). SCO offers an appropriate
called intersecting ground (Sun Tzu trans-
platform for Chinas policy of furthering semi-
lated by Thomas Cleary 1988)
alliances or strategic partnerships that avoid
the burly posture but deliver the security of an
105. The intersecting ground refers to
alliance. China-Pakistan horizontal integra-
the intersection of various national arteries
tion of the region will neutralise the big-power
that link together various highway systems
advantages of countries like Russia, US and
in the region. Central Asia is the intersect-
India and compel an equal participation in the
ing ground of the regional geopolitics where
processes of regional, social and economic
Chinese efforts will meet Russian attempts
development.
to reassert dominance. Improved relations of
China and Pakistan with Russia will mean that
109. This horizontal integration will serve
the immense energy resources of Russia will
as support for allowing China some respite
support Chinas growth and not be used to un-
and breathing space to divert more focus to-
dermine the latters position in the region.
wards tackling its internal disparities. China
has followed a conscious policy of first de-
106. China-Pakistan-Russia coopera-
veloping its coastal belt and only later re-di-
tion will find suitable support mechanism in
recting resources such as the relocation of in-
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
dustry and the development of infrastructure
SCO is significant as the first post-Cold War
in its Central, Northern and Western regions5.
multilateral platform created directly as a re-
As a result, there are potential divisive and
sult of Chinese initiative. It is an example of
centrifugal tendencies inherent in this gap in
how China is building asymmetric power by
development between the coastal belt and
utilising concepts, institutions and things inno-
the hinterland. This development gap must
vatively. Russia may be apprehensive of Chi-
be closed as soon as possible before it can
nese pro-active role in SCO, yet enough room
be misused by external forces. Pakistans Na-
exists in that multilateral body to promote
tional Trade Corridor Project can be a help-
China-Russia synergy. After all, pooling of
ful factor in the rapid economic development
strengths economically in SCO is more realis-
of Western China and can help secure China
tic than pursing anti-NATO ambition like Col-
against the foreign subversive manipulation of
lective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
internal regional disparities.
107. SCO is a manifestation of Chinas
110. There is a risk often betrayed by the
policy of Good Neighbourliness which is be-
western analysts (Centre for Strategic and
ing used to deliver its New Security Concept
International Studies (CSIS) 2011; The Chris-
succinctly enunciated by China in its Four
tian Science Monitor 2011; Kocaman 2012;
Nos policy namely, no hegemony; no power
Lillis 2012; Muckenhuber 2013) that attempts
politics; no alliances; and no arms race and
may be made to enact a so-called indigenous
is a means for providing economic coopera-
Central Asian or South Asian Spring within
tion, trade opportunities, energy transport and
Pakistan with a focus to thwart Chinese plans
meaningful security cooperation (Ramo 2004:
for durable peace in the region. This could re-
52).
sult in national fragmentation of Pakistan or
other Central Asian States along ethnic and

Former Chinese President, Jiang Zemin, personally shared this information, as far back as December 1996, with his friend, Dr.
5

Akram Sheikh, former Chairman, Planning Commission of Pakistan, and currently the Professor Emeritus, National University of
Sciences and Technology and Co-Chair of its China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank, Islamabad.

CHINA-PAKISTAN JOINT THINK THANK WORKING PAPER 21

 sectarian lines and the creation of multiple
postage-stamp states in the region. This will
make the goal of the development of Western
China prohibitively costly.
111. Russia, however, may not tolerate
fragmentation in Central Asia and under-
take actions analogous to that which Saudi
Arabia-led Peninsular Shield Force took to
stabilise Bahrain in 2011 during the spate of
Arab Spring uprisings in the Middle East. Chi-
na may also move to arrest the onset of any
South Asian Spring. But such developments
would entail the risk of a major confrontation
between military powers and therefore deter
such adventurism. The possibility, however,
should not be excluded from the strategic ho-
rizon of China and Pakistan.
112. Here, it would be instructive to quote
from Zbigniew Brzezinskis book, The Grand
Chessboard: American Primacy and its Ge-
ostrategic Imperatives, to understand the
American strategy to use conflict to prevent
competitors from gelling together:
113. In brief, for the United States, Eura-
sian geo-strategy involves the purposeful
management of geo-strategically dynamic
states and the careful handling of geopoliti-
cally catalytic states, in keeping with the twin
interests of America in the short-term preser-
vation of its unique global power and in the
long-run transformation of it into increasingly
institutionalized global cooperation. To put it in
a terminology that hearkens back to the more
brutal age of ancient empires, the three grand
imperatives of imperial geo-strategy are to
prevent collusion and maintain security de-
pendence among the vassals, to keep tribu-
taries pliant and protected, and to keep the
barbarians from coming together (Brzezinski
1997).
114. This strategic thinking is specifical-
ly targeted at Russia, China, Pakistan and
Iran so there is a need to deepen coopera-
tion amongst these countries. In this regard,
both China and Pakistan should understand
that their relationship to each other is unique
because of Pakistans near-complete identity
with Chinas interests and China may not be
22 REGIONAL GEO-STRATEGIC CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CHINA-PAKISTAN COOPERATION
able to develop a similarly strong relationship
with any other country in the region. There-
fore, China-Pakistan cooperation should
thrive if it functions as the cornerstone of such
broad-based regional cooperation and acts as
force for emulation by other countries.
115. Pakistan has traditionally enjoyed a
strong relationship with Turkey. This relation-
ship can allow Pakistan to broaden its geostra-
tegic opportunities and reinforce the already
fast-developing China-Turkey relationship
manifested in the construction and diversifi-
cation of Chinese-conceived Eurasian Land
Bridges that connect China to the vast Eura-
sian landmass via Turkey. Turkey has a cen-
tral geopolitical location allowing it to move in
multiple directions. This geopolitical potential
of Turkey should be productively channelled
by a strong and mutually advantageous Tur-
key-Pakistan relationship that should enable
Pakistan both to benefit from these develop-
ments and also compensate for the restric-
tions resulting from its close relationship with
Iran due to fallout of US-Iran rivalry.
116. Seeing the development of China-Pa-
kistan relationship with Russia, Central Asia,
Iran and Turkey may also arouse interest of
India in future in an alternative regional ar-
rangement to the one currently conceived for
Central Asia by US-NATO. There is a strong
possibility that India may choose to opt out
of a US-NATO-led Central Asian game plan
because it may pit it against both China and
Russia as well as lessen its regional standing
in the eyes of other countries in the region.
117. The fact that Pakistan and India have
been approved to become full members of the
SCO along with Turkey as a dialogue partner,
spells the widening of SCOs scope to include
Middle East and its ability to formulate a Mid-
dle Eastern future different from the current
uncertainties that are emanating as a result of
US-Israel dominance, starkly manifest in the
region. SCO may even bring China, Pakistan,
India and Russia closer in terms of a com-
mon security and development vision. This
will form part of Chinas strategy to strengthen
its ties with important Eurasian states so as
to establish a series of bases of goodwill on intensive farming.
the Eurasian landmass that in time shall ma- Aggressively pursuing public health to
ture as concrete alternatives to the American- eradicate epidemics, infectious diseases
led dominance of Eurasia. President Xi Jin- and raising the nutritional profile of the
pings first foreign visit to Russia and bilateral public.
agreements in the fields of energy, defense, Devising an urbanisation and housing
science, etc., are a step in the right direction policy for Pakistan to provide affordable
and may help in the normalisation of relations housing to people through public-private
between Russia and Pakistan as well. partnerships.
Establishing science parks to promote in-
novation and technological development
5. Proposed domestic for economic growth.
strategy for China- 119. Investing in the above-mentioned ar-
Pakistan cooperation eas will enable the utilization of a part of mas-
sive Chinese finance capital to build the so-
cial and physical infrastructures in Pakistan.
118. The domestic situation of Pakistan
One outcome of improved national social and
offers ample avenues for China-Pakistan co-
physical infrastructures would be the facilita-
operation. Pakistan urgently needs Chinas
tion of overland trade between China, Paki-
strategic and financial help in tackling the
stan and the Middle East and Africa region
ominous dangers of economic meltdown and
through reduction in transaction and transpor-
the forces of separatism and disintegration
tation costs.
being sponsored by hostile foreign forces,
especially in Balochistan and KPK. Pakistan
120. This investment will be a powerful
is fully aware of the problems in the country
means of soft power projection for China. It
and possesses the resolve and national will to
combines the profit motive, the security mo-
deal with its problems decisively. The follow-
tive of a peaceful neighbourhood, and the
ing are the areas where Chinese investments
human development motive all into one com-
and cooperation can make significant contri-
prehensive package. This comprehensive co-
bution for a more stable and secure Pakistan:
operation platform will address the criticisms
Defeating the TTP-Militancy and Extrem-
voiced internationally against Chinas alleg-
ism decisively followed by social reinte-
edly narrow focus on exploiting resources of
gration.
under-developed countries without any con-
Establishing security and socio-economic
cern for human development.
development security in Balochistan and
Khyber-Pakhtunwa (KPK) through asser-
121. Pakistan also needs to learn from
tive good governance.
Chinas experience in acquiring knowledge
Reforming Pakistans dysfunctional po-
of the varied aspirations and ambitions of
litical system and promoting honest and
different social groups in a country and the
responsible governance and encouraging
need to devise mechanisms to enable these
political-military cooperation.
groups to realise their aspirations. Without a
Reformation of elementary, secondary
comprehensive framework for social analysis
and tertiary education systems and their
and strategic approach, governments lack the
expansion to cover full population.
self-knowledge to better ensure internal tran-
Resolving the energy crisis in the country
quillity and national socio-economic growth.
on an urgent basis to ensure energy secu-
rity within 3-5 years.
122. This lack of self-knowledge and inter-
Achieving food sovereignty through
nal tranquillity leads to exploitation by hos-
land reforms, corporate farming projects
tile external forces. Chinas focus on acquir-
owned by farmer cooperatives and hi-tech
ing national self-knowledge is based on the

CHINA-PAKISTAN JOINT THINK THANK WORKING PAPER 23

 awareness of the inextricable relationship be-
tween domestic and foreign policies, on one
hand, and domestic society and international
society, on the other. The paramount impor-
tance of mastery over the domestic situation
has moulded the Chinese approach which
stresses the importance of resolution of three
interrelated internal challenges, namely, re-
sources, especially, energy; environment;
and a series of paradoxes in the process of
economic and social development, such as
uneven development between the coastal
areas and the hinterland, the contradiction
between fairness and economic returns, ru-
ral-urban disparity, the wealth gap, and the
tension between reform and stability (Bijian
2005: 3). Pakistan and China can form a
joint framework for the management of social
forces which transcends national borders and
benefits the region at large.
123. There is also a pressing need to bring
the civil societies of China and Pakistan clos-
er and expand people-to-people contacts
that would further strengthen government-to-
government relationship. This will allow China
and Pakistan to learn from the local and popu-
lar traditions of civic association and help in
the development of Chinas and Pakistans
soft power.
124. We should seek to align commonali-
ties in the internal development of China and
Pakistan and put forward an approach of
cooperation that is aimed at overcoming the
problems of economic inequality, uneven,
development, urbanization, climate change,
poverty, etc., in both China and Pakistan. In
this regard, we need to learn from Chinas
concept of Three Represents which states
that the party and the state should represent
the most advanced productive, the most ad-
vanced culture, and the fundamental interests
of the majority of the Chinese people. The
theory of Three Represents exhibits an ad-
vanced Chinese understanding of the notion
of state and country. This notion sees country
as a unity of territory and people inhabiting the
country and, therefore, the concept of security
tries to ensure the protection of the territory,
utilize its resources, organize its national life,
24 REGIONAL GEO-STRATEGIC CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CHINA-PAKISTAN COOPERATION
and secure the maximum welfare of the peo-
ple, all at the same time. In the absence of
such an understanding and approach, Paki-
stan will not be able to devise a mature geo-
political strategy. For instance, Gwadar Port
project, without a friendly and satisfied local
population, will not be able to contribute to
the prosperity of Pakistan. Now that the op-
erations of the Gwadar port have been hand-
ed over to the China Overseas Port Holding
Company, it will become even more crucial to
ensure peace in Balochistan.
6. Conclusion and rec-
ommendations
125. It is important to note that Pakistan
has a versatile geopolitical potential which
can multiply opportunities for cooperation not
only with China but with other important re-
gional players. However, China-Pakistan co-
operation can provide a solid foundation for
the diverse partnerships that Pakistan can
and should build to attain strategic sustain-
ability.
126. In response, the threat of Indian ag-
gression, terrorism, religious and sectarian
extremism, domestic and regional destabilisa-
tion, and other such instruments shall be de-
ployed by opposing global actors to negative-
ly impinge upon China-Pakistan relationship.
Indias past conflicts with China and Pakistan
and ensuing tensions will also be exploited to
forestall any movement towards triangular un-
derstanding between these three countries.
127. The formation of a constructive triad
between China, Pakistan and India can help
the region tremendously. India, however, will
occasionally create contrived military show-
downs with Pakistan just like the recent spate
of Indian-initiated violence across the Line of
Control early this year. The challenge for Chi-
na, Pakistan and India would be to see if they
can transcend history.
128. Terrorism, if it remains unchecked,
can potentially unsettle western regions of
China and can be expected to create friction
between Beijing and Pakistan. So the chal-
lenge here is for Pakistan to combat terrorist
outfits in its area and defeat them to eliminate
this threat. This will also enable Pakistan to
draw Beijings attention to playing a part in ad-
dressing the regional causes that are seen to
promote terrorism aimed at Pakistan.
129. China is already actively pursuing a
peaceful and socio-economic developmental
solution to its ethno-religious troubles in Xin-
jiang which are causing frictions in Pakistan-
China cooperation. Pakistan will play a posi-
tive role in support of such efforts, especially
by ensuring the security and tranquillity in its
bordering regions with China and the Karako-
rum Highway communication line.
130. The idea is for Pakistan to use the
cushion provided by Chinas strategic support
to help resolve its issues of domestic secu-
rity. China-Pakistan relations need to diversify
and fan out to include broad-based economic
cooperation, cultural exchanges, and, more
importantly, broad interaction and cooperation
between the political establishments of the
two countries to forge deeper understanding
and benefit from each others experiences.
131. Gwadar Project provides a crucial sec-
ond sea access to China with significant ben-
efits for Pakistan; therefore, its development
should be accelerated. The Chinese are well
aware of the significance of Gwadar and the
associated development of Pakistans physi-
cal and economic infrastructures through im-
mediate Chinese investments will be benefi-
cial for both countries in the larger scheme of
things.
132. A wide-ranging China-Pakistan coop-
eration promoting both bilateralism and mul-
tilateralism will serve to bring about regional
growth, peace, prosperity and harmony. Some
recommendations in this regard are indicated
below:
6.1. Domestic front:
133. Actively pursue a policy of neutralising
militancy and associated extremist philoso-
phies and ideologies, and implement socio-
economic development programs on a fast-
track basis in backward and underdeveloped
regions in the country to build social and politi-
cal stability there.
134. Take all measures to achieve a sta-
ble and functional political system and culture
in the Country. A functional system shall be
clean and corruption-free, based on participa-
tory involvement of the people coupled with
responsible interactive interdependence of
powers rather than unrealistic separation of
powers in the domestic polity.
135. Improve governance by following uni-
versally acknowledged principles of admin-
istration to build a professional merit-based
bureaucracy and to define parameters of po-
litical oversight of government machinery.
136. Develop a new paradigm of govern-
ment based on public-private partnership,
especially, in economic and social sectors.
Typically, a PPP shall consist of the provision
of public service jointly funded by government
and private business. However, it needs to be
pointed out that since many types of PPPs,
depending upon the predominance of pub-
lic or private sector, are in existence it is ad-
vised to develop or select that form which is
a win-win option for the people, business and
government in Pakistan. In order for PPPs to
succeed, there needs to be present the ease
of doing business, transparency in public and
private transactions, strong regulatory capac-
ity in the public sector, and fair, speedy and
strong dispute-resolution systems.
6.2. Regional front:
137. Open bilateral talks now with all Af-
ghan ethno-political groups for building a
broad-based relationship with Afghanistan
in the post-US/NATO drawdown phase. This
should be carried out as a complementary
CHINA-PAKISTAN JOINT THINK THANK WORKING PAPER 25
 (not competitive) exercise in support of in-
ternational efforts to build peace and stabil-
ity in Afghanistan and restore normalcy in the
region. Historical Pak-Afghan relationship
should be made a basis for such an initiative.
This requires a separate bilateral effort in par-
allel to international efforts.
138. Resume front-channel track-one talks
with India on all issues including Kashmir and
water resources.
139. Open a diplomatic initiative with all
regional countries (Iran, UAE, Saudi Arabia,
CARs, Turkey, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri
Lanka, etc.) for taking them into confidence
regarding the proposed Pak-Afghan bilateral
talks and keeping them updated on it.
6.3. International front:
140. Pursue an energetic diplomatic initia-
tive to co-opt Saudi Arabia and Iran into ef-
forts to diffuse tensions and prevent the exac-
erbation of the already dangerous sectarian
strife, including the Shia-Sunni schism, within
the Muslim countries. Pakistan is the worst af-
fected in this regard and needs to focus its
energies in this direction.
141. Strengthen diplomatic relations with
EU countries to complement relations with the
US.
142. Open a focussed diplomatic initiative
with Russia with a view to getting over the
past and enabling the development of posi-
tive relationship between Russia and Paki-
stan leading to a wider regional cooperation.
6.4. China-Pakistan front:
143. Develop a broad internal consensus
on the proposed foreign policy and strategy of
Pakistan on China-Pakistan bilateral coopera-
tion and take Chinese leadership into confi-
dence. Establish comprehensive information-
sharing mechanisms to keep them updated.
144. The recent handing over of the Gwa-
26 REGIONAL GEO-STRATEGIC CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CHINA-PAKISTAN COOPERATION
dar Port operations to China Overseas Port
Holding Company is a very encouraging de-
velopment and must be followed up energeti-
cally.
145. Ensure peaceful environment for the
smooth Chinese management of the Gwadar
port to lead in time to city development, airport
and related infrastructure projects.
146. Pursue the Oil City Project, ship re-
fuelling and re-supplying Hub, and wet and
dry dock facilities for international shipping
near Gwadar Port.
147. Establish a special security plan and
infrastructure for the coastal belt of Pakistan.
148. Move forward on the energy, trade,
transport and industrial corridor plans includ-
ing the expansion of Karakorum Highway.
149. Pursue development of dedicated in-
dustrial parks and special economic zones for
facilitating investment and joint venture indus-
trial projects.
150. A large proportion of Chinese invest-
ments in Pakistan is concentrated in the pub-
lic sector. More private sector investments
by China will help create a healthy balance
between public and private sector Chinese in-
vestments in Pakistan allowing China to com-
pete healthily with countries like the US and
UAE which invest more in the private sector in
Pakistan as compared to China.
151. The 2006 China-Pakistan Five-Year
Development Programme for Trade and Eco-
nomic Cooperation should be fully realised.
This means initiating bilateral projects in all
the sectors identified in the Development Pro-
gramme i.e., Agriculture, Energy, Science and
Technology, Industry, Manufacturing, Min-
erals, ICT, Engineering Services, Technical
Cooperation, Education (setting up an Engi-
neering University with Chinese support and
participation), and Infrastructure and Public
Works.
152. Pakistans East-West and North-
South National Energy, Trade, Transport and,
Industrial Corridor complements the plans for
the development of Western China. The Five-
Year Development Programme is a key to
unlocking the potential of this corridor for Chi-
na-Pakistan economic cooperation and the
development of Pakistan and Western China.
Therefore, dedicated cooperation should be
initiated on this particular point.
153. Foreign-funded terrorism and militan-
cy are real and present dangers to the stabil-
ity of Pakistan and China as well as China-
Pakistan cooperation. China should enhance
Pakistans financial and operational capacity
to fight this menace and pacify Khyber Pak-
thukhwa (KPK) and Balochistan for increased
economic cooperation.
154. China-Pakistan cooperation should
prioritise balanced and mutually advanta-
geous trade through the 2006 China-Pakistan
Free Trade Agreement.
155. Energy cooperation between China
and Pakistan should be increased as a prel-
ude to the relocation of Chinese industry in
Pakistan and the integration of Pakistan in the
Global Production Networks (GPNs) of Chi-
nese multinationals.
156. In the context of energy cooperation,
both countries should increase cooperation
on building more dams on the Indus River,
relocation of re-conditioned power plants to
Pakistan, and renewable energy projects be-
tween China-Pakistan should be encouraged
so that Pakistans energy shortages can be
dealt with to facilitate economic cooperation.
The sale of two nuclear reactors to Pakistan is
a welcome decision in this regard and should
be followed up with appropriate moves in en-
ergy cooperation between the two countries.
157. Establish wider and deeper interaction
via think tank activity and academic contact
through increased University-to-University
cooperation. China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank
should increase joint activities between the
three collaborating universities i.e., Tsinghua
University, Beijing, National University of Sci-
ences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad,
and Southwest University of Political Science
and Law (SWUPL), Chongqing, China.
158. Develop a cadre of China experts in
Pakistans universities and think tanks. PhD
programmes in China Studies should be of-
fered in all Pakistani universities. Higher Edu-
cation Commission of Pakistan should take
necessary steps to introduce China Studies
and the formation of China experts in Paki-
stans higher education. Further, proper con-
sultative mechanism should be devised for
linking these China experts with relevant pol-
icy making bodies in the government. NUST
can take the initial steps in this regard through
the China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank.
159. China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank
should also devise ways of cooperating ac-
tively with the Chinese Academy of Sciences
(CAS) and facilitating increased contacts be-
tween CAS and the Pakistan Academy of Sci-
ences. This cooperation can find an immedi-
ate form in the setting up of the proposed and
agreed China-Pakistan Institute of Science
and Technology at NUST.
160. A six-monthly or annual publication/
journal should be inaugurated by the China-
Pakistan Joint Think Tank which: focuses on
China-Pakistan relations in a global context;
highlights avenues and innovative means of
economic and social collaboration; reports on
the activities of various China-Pakistan fora;
analyses world events with relevance for both
China and Pakistan and their relationship; and
advocates the regional peace and prosperity
dividends of China-Pakistan relations. The
role of chambers of commerce and industry
in China and Pakistan should be considered
and explored to initiate and promote this ef-
fort. China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank should
devise a strategy for it.
161. Tsinghua-NUST-SWUPL should also
announce an Annual Recognition Award to
one Pakistani national and one Chinese na-
tional for their efforts every year in promoting
cooperation between the two countries, espe-
cially in science, technology, higher education
CHINA-PAKISTAN JOINT THINK THANK WORKING PAPER 27
 and business.
162. Contrary to the views of the Western
and Indian think tanks and analysts which
confuse the proper path forward for China-Pa-
kistan cooperation by claiming that economic
cooperation shall gather momentum once
militancy and terrorism are completely curbed
in Pakistan, it must be emphasised that mili-
tancy and terrorism shall be defeated in Paki-
stan and stability secured in Xinjiang through
increased China-Pakistan economic coopera-
tion conducted simultaneously with combat-
ing extremism, militancy and terrorism. All
that needs to be done to understand this truth
is to extend the logic of domestic develop-
ment of unstable regions inside any country
- which dictates that combating destabilising
elements and development of disturbed re-
gions go hand in hand - to relations between
countries where bilateral relations between
China and Pakistan will prove a critical help in
defeating terrorism inside Pakistan.

Figure 1: The mega-region of China-Pakistan cooperation

Source: Based on http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/world_maps/world_pol495.jpg

28 REGIONAL GEO-STRATEGIC CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CHINA-PAKISTAN COOPERATION

Figure 2: Chinese Eurasian land bridges

Source: http://www.larouchepub.com/lar/1998/lar_glazyev_2513/2LandBridgeColor.html

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30 REGIONAL GEO-STRATEGIC CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CHINA-PAKISTAN COOPERATION