HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

16 February, 2017

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 VIEW POINT
STRATEGY FOR THE DAY Rupee Consolidation Continues
The consolidation with lackluster trade continue for one more day as
JPYINR FEB. FUT. the home currency closed at 66.91--up 0.02% from its previous
close of 66.92. Even after weakness in domestic equity market,
BUY ARND 58.60 SL 58.30 TGT 59.00 rupee manages to hold gains mainly on back of foreign fund inflow.
India's 10-year bond yield closed at 6.862%--from its Tuesday's
MAJOR CURRENCY close of 6.875%.
The one month non deliverable forward last quoted at 67.10 from
Prev. yesterdays 67.08 indicating flat opening at the domestic bourses.
Close Chg. % Chg. Technically, Spot USDINR is consolidating in very tight range 66.85
Close
to 67.10 with low volume. Momentum oscillators are placed in
USDINR 66.91 66.92 -0.014 -0.02%
oversold zone indicating anytime short covering. However, it will
DXY INDX 100.93 101.18 -0.250 -0.25% face resistance around 67.26, 200 days SMA.
EURUSD 1.062 1.060 0.001 0.13% India Export Rises For Fifth Month In Row
GBPUSD 1.246 1.246 0.000 -0.02% Indias export grows for the fifth month in a row as merchandise
USDJPY 113.850 114.160 -0.310 -0.27% shipments overseas at $22.12 billion in January 2017 registered an
DG USDINR 66.912 66.957 -0.045 -0.07% uptick of 4.32% over the $21.20 billion exported in January 2015.
Imports during the month in consideration at $31.96 billion also
GLOBAL INDICES marked an increase of 10.70% over the $28.87 billion worth of
imports in January last year. Consequently, the trade deficit in
January was higher at $9.84 billion, as compared to the deficit of
Prev. $7.67 billion during same month of 2016.
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close The merchandise trade deficit cumulatively for April-January,
SGX NIFTY 8758.5 8754.0 5 0.05% however, declined by 19.82% to $86.39 billion, as against $107.7
NIFTY 8724.7 8792.3 -68 -0.77% billion in the same period of 2015-16.
SENSEX 28155.6 28339.3 -184 -0.65% Dollar Slips After Upbeat Economic Data
HANG-SENG 24046.6 23994.9 52 0.22% The dollar took a breather today after climbing to a one-month high
as a run of upbeat U.S. economic data improved expectations of an
NIKKEI 19318.4 19438.0 -120 -0.62%
early rate hike by the Federal Reserve. However, Fed Chair Janet
SHANGHAI 3212.7 3213.0 0 -0.01% Yellen offered no additional insight on the timing of the central
S&P INDEX 2349.3 2337.6 12 0.50% bank's next rate hike in her second day of economic testimony
DOW JONES 20611.9 20504.4 107 0.52% before Congress on Wednesday.
NASDAQ 5819.4 5782.6 37 0.64% U.S. consumer prices recorded their biggest gain in nearly four
FTSE years, jumping 0.6% in January. Retail sales also outpaced
7302.4 7268.6 34 0.47%
expectations, increasing 0.4% last month compared to the analysts'
CAC 4924.9 4895.8 29 0.59%
poll of 0.1%.
DAX 11793.9 11771.8 22 0.19% Technically, dollar index has been consolidating in the range of
99.20 to 102 with overall bullish bias.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

SPOT USDINR DAILY CHART

Technical Observations
It was the second day of consolidation with pair ending merely a paise to close at 66.91 from yesterdays 66.92.
Momentum oscillators are still hovering in oversold zone and yet to give positive cross over indicating continuation of bearishness.
The pair could head lower towards 66.34 the previous bottom, and face resistance at 67.26.
In short term, the pair likely continue bearish movement with downside immediate support of 66.34, the level seen on 10th
November 2016 while 67.26 the 200 SDMA remains resistance.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Contracts Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR FEB17 66.97 66.98 66.83 66.88 66.93 67.03 67.08 67.12 Unwinding
EURINR FEB17 70.76 70.83 70.31 70.51 70.63 70.96 71.16 71.28 Short Buildup
GBPINR FEB17 83.32 83.42 82.75 83.01 83.17 83.58 83.84 83.99 Unwinding
JPYINR FEB17 58.53 58.58 58.28 58.40 58.46 58.65 58.77 58.84 Short Buildup

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 67.44 66.77 68.39 66.77 68.86 66.07 66.92 67.56 67.79 67.49 67.26
EURINR 72.50 71.06 73.35 70.55 77.01 70.42 71.13 72.23 71.84 72.69 73.93
GBPINR 84.28 83.25 86.27 81.78 100.49 80.89 83.61 84.35 84.05 83.85 87.46
JPYINR 60.27 58.75 60.49 57.93 68.11 57.25 58.96 59.47 58.85 60.98 62.73

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Abs Open Chg. in Chg. in
Currency Open High Low Close Volume
Chg. Interest OI Volume
SPOT USDINR 66.93 66.95 66.88 66.91 -0.01 -- -- -- --
USDINR FEB. FUT. 66.94 67.03 66.94 66.97 -0.06 1585216 -35733 695459 28546
SPOT EURINR 70.76 70.85 70.55 70.61 -0.48 -- -- -- --
EURINR FEB. FUT. 71.03 71.03 70.71 70.76 -0.51 69286 637 51082 5768
SPOT GBPINR 83.43 83.48 83.13 83.17 -0.29 -- -- -- --
GBPINR FEB. FUT. 83.68 83.68 83.27 83.32 -0.32 49036 -253 43889 -18116
SPOT JPYINR 58.54 58.59 58.40 58.41 -0.64 -- -- -- --
JPYINR FEB. FUT. 58.65 58.70 58.52 58.53 -0.64 24551 2867 22094 -3516

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

02/15/2017 15:00 UK Jobless Claims Change Jan 1.0k -42.4k -10.1k

02/15/2017 15:00 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Dec 4.80% 4.80% 4.80%
02/15/2017 15:30 EC Trade Balance NSA Dec 28.0b 28.1b 25.9b
02/15/2017 17:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 10-Feb -- -3.70% 2.30%
02/15/2017 19:00 US Empire Manufacturing Feb 7 18.7 6.5
02/15/2017 19:00 US CPI YoY Jan 2.40% 2.50% 2.10%
02/15/2017 19:45 US Industrial Production MoM Jan 0.00% -0.30% 0.60%
02/15/2017 19:45 US Capacity Utilization Jan 75.50% 75.30% 75.50%
02/15/2017 19:45 US Manufacturing (SIC) Production Jan 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
02/15/2017 20:30 US NAHB Housing Market Index Feb 67 65 67

ECONOMIC EVENTS TODAY

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior

02/17/2017 14:30 EC ECB Current Account SA Dec -- 36.1b

02/17/2017 14:30 EC Current Account NSA Dec -- 40.5b
02/17/2017 15:30 EC Construction Output YoY Dec -- 0.00%
02/17/2017 20:30 US Leading Index Jan 0.40% 0.50%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]