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Currency Exchange 1 USD = 6.8635 CNY 1 USD =1.3113 AUD 1 USD=3.11917BRL ISSUE 476
Today's Highlight
USD/DMT
Mysteel IO Index (62% Fe Australia)
90
80
70
60 Chinese steel exports drop 23.2% y-o-y to 7.42 mln t in Jan
50
40 Chinas finished steel exports in January came in at 7.42 million tonnes,
30
20
shrinking 380,000 tonnes from a month earlier or declining 23% year-on-
10 year, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs.
0
2000
2.180 Liaoning
1000
2.231 Hubei
0
-1.736 Sichun
ShanghaiDaily GuangzhouDaily BeijingDaily ShenyangDaily
Rebar HRC CRC
SourceMysteel Dababase UnitYuan/ton/degree SourceMysteel Database UnitYuan/ton
1.34% Coke1705 25
20
5.68% IO1709
15
7.00% IO1705 Lianyungan Caofeidian
10
g Port Port
5 62%
0.87% Coking
0 58%
0.04% Coking
65%
2.89% Rebar1709 Benchmark in
Qingdao
2.75% Rebar1705 62%
Jingtang
Rizhao Port
Port
SourceMysteel Database SourceMysteel Database UnitYuan/ton
Figure 5 Lump Premium of Futures and Port Spot Figure 6 Tangshan Billet Margin
0.6
500
0.5
300
0.4
100
0.3
0.2
-100
0.1 -300
0 -500
Futures Spot Lump Premium Port Spot Lump Premium PBF Spot Price (Caofeidian Port) Tangshan Billet Cost (ex-works)
SourceMysteel Database SourceMysteel Database UnitYuan/ton
Figure 7 Mill Rebar Margin over Billet Figure 8 IO Port & Futures Spread
700 Rebar Margins on SHFE Futures
700 50
600
650 30
500
600 10
400 550 -10
400 -70
100
350 -90
0
300 -110
-100
250 -130
-200
Industry Dynamics [Feb 10] Mysteel Iron Ore Index, Unit: US$/dmt
Product Grade FOB CFR Index Change Activity MTD average
Chinese steel exports drop 23.2% Australia fines 62% 81.85 86.35-87.35 86.85 3 High 83.22
y-o-y to 7.42 mln t in Jan
Australia fines 58% 71.5 76-77 76.5 2.75 Medium 73.64
Brazilian fines 65% 88.45 99.95- 100.45 3 Medium 96.64
Chinas finished steel exports in January 100.95
came in at 7.42 million tonnes, shrinking Indian fines 63.50% 79.55 87.05-88.05 87.55(*) 3 Low 83.92
380,000 tonnes from a month earlier or Indian fines 58% 53.85 60.35-61.35 60.85 2 Low 59.02
declining 23% year-on-year, according Indian fines 56% 49.3 55.8-56.8 56.3 2 Low 54.47
to data released by the General Indian fines 52% 25.35 31.85-32.85 32.35(*) 2 Low 30.63
Administration of Customs.
Product Grade FOB CFR Index Change Activity
Newman fines 62.50% 83.05 87.55-88.55 88.05 3 High
Finished steel imports into China sit at PB fines 61.00% 80.6 85.1-86.1 85.6 3 High
1.09 million tonnes in January, which Mac fines 60.80% 78.85 83.35-84.35 83.85 3 Medium
reduced 100, 000 tonnes month-on- JMBF 61.30% 77.5 82-83 82.5 3 Medium
month while climbed up 17.7% from a PB lumps 62.50% 84.3 88.8-89.8 89.3 3 Low
Newman lumps 63.20% 85.05 89.55-90.55 90.05 3 Low
year ago. Mac lumps 62.50% 83.55 88.05-89.05 88.55 3 Low
Yandi fines 57.30% 71.1 75.6-76.6 76.1 2.75 Medium
Chinas imports of crude iron ore and Robe Valley fines 57.00% 65.2 69.7-70.7 70.2 3 Medium
concentrates were recorded at 92 million SSF 56.70% 55.85 60.35-61.35 60.85 1 Medium
FB Fines 58.30% 64.15 68.65-69.65 69.15 3 Medium
tonnes, rising 3.05 million tonnes on a
SSFG 62.50% 72.35 83.85-84.85 84.35 3 Medium
month-on-month basis or 12% year- SSFT 62.50% 72.75 84.25-85.25 84.75 3 Medium
over-year. BRBF 63.10% 84.8 86.8-87.8 87.3 3 Medium
IOCJ 64.50% 87.7 99.2-100.2 99.7 3 Medium
Coke exports in January settled at Indian fines 63/62% 77.85 85.35-86.35 85.85(*) 3 Low
Indian fines 62/61% 73.85 81.35-82.35 81.85(*) 3 Low
790,000 tonnes, down 110,000 tonnes Indian fines 61/60% 69.5 77-78 77.5(*) 3 Low
from last December while moving up Indian fines 60/59% 64.7 71.2-72.2 71.7(*) 3 Low
7.6% year-over-year. Indian fines 55/54% 40.4 46.9-47.9 47.4(*) 2 Low
Indian fines 50/50% 19.5 26-27 26.5(*) 1.5 Low
Lump Premium 62.5% 0.033$/dmtu
-Edited by Mysteel.net
Pellet Premium 63% 16/dmtu
Pellet Premium 65% 20$/dmtu
MIIT repeals 35 steel companies' [Feb 10] Mysteel Per 1% Differentials, Unit: US$/dmt
legal identity
Within Min-Max $/dmt Change
China initiated its steel industrial Per 1% Fe 60-63.5%Fe 1.6 +0.1
regulation work from 2012 and from
then to the end of 2015, Chinas central [Feb 10] Mysteel Iron Ore Port Spot Price Index (yuan/wmt)
administrative organ Ministry of Industry Product Fe Origin Loading Port Index Chg Activity Mtd avg
& Information Technology (MIIT) had Australia fines 62% Australia Qingdao 660 10 High 641.714
acknowledged 304 steel companies Australia fines 58% Australia Qingdao 559 11 High 541.857
legal identity in three batches. Brazil fines 65% Brazil Qingdao 772 10 Medium 756.29
However, based on the new version [Feb 10] Port Price Discount and Premium (Yuan/wmt)
of steel industrial regulations revised Tianjin Caofeidian Jingtang Lianyungang Zhenjiang Fangcheng
Product Rizhao Port
in 2015, and the official document Port Port Port Port Port Port
to carry out dynamic inspections on 62% Australia fines 29 5 5 5 5 15 4
steel companies released in 2016, the 58% Australia fines 4 8 8 - - 13 9
administrative organ reexamined 65% Brazilian fines 10 8 8 - - 8 10
Note:
these steel companies operations and 1. Mysteel defines FOT-based price of 62% Fe Australian fines, 58% Fe Australian fines and 65% Fe Brazilian fine on Qingdao Port as Mysteel Iron
determined to repeal legal identity of Ore Port Price Index
2. The Index aims to reflect the tradable prices of iron ore on main ports of China
35 steel companies on the list, as either 3. Mysteel Iron Ore Port Price is a free on truck price with tax included
4. Unit: Yuan/wmt
there were illegal behaviors found 5. Payment: Cash settlement
among them, or production suspension 6. Minimum Pirce change: 1 Yuan/ton
7. Data Collection Period: From 8:30 to 17:30
found lasting for over 1 year or some of 8. Index Publish Time: 17:45 each workday
and February 22, 2017. [Feb 10] Market Price of China Domestic Concentrates
Price Change
-Edited by Mysteel.net
66% domestic concentrate, Tangshan, wet basis, ex-work, Yuan/ton, tax-exl. 545-555 -
Coal profits might be Spread of 61.5% PB fines and 66% Tangshan concentrates 10 +5
unsustainable
[Feb 10] Forwards Price of Non-mainstream Ore ($/dmt)
China's listed coal companies turned Product Grade Origin CFR Chg
major profits last year, reversing Pellet feed 65% Ukraine/Russia 101.5-102.5 3
previous deep losses. Pellets 63% Ukraine/Russia 103.5-104.5 3
Pellets 65% Ukraine/Russia 110.25-111.25 3
Rising coal prices are responsible, Pellet feed 66% Iran 98.25-99.25 3
according to the latest estimates, but Pellet feed (HS) 66% Iran 96.25-97.25 3
one leading industry expert has warned Sinter feed conc. 66% Iran 96.25-97.25 3
of unsustainably high prices. Sinter feed conc. (HS) 66% Iran 94.25-95.25 3
Magnetic fines 62/61% Iran 60-61 3
According to an estimate by the National Magnetic fines 61/60% Iran 59-60 3
Development and Reform Commission, Magnetic fines 60/59% Iran 58-59 3
total profits for the country's designated Hematite fines 62/61% Iran 58-59 3
large coal companies with annual Hematite fines 61/60% Iran 57-58 3
Hematite fines 60/59% Iran 56-57 3
turnovers of at least 20 million yuan ($2.9
million; 2.7 million euros; 2.3 million)
were 95 billion yuan in 2016.
[Feb 9] SGX IO Swaps Settlement Price ($/dmt)
Contract DSP Change (%)
17-Feb 81.78 0.00%
One major producer - China National Q2 17 77.04 0.00%
Coal Group Corp - has estimated its net Q3 17 72.22 0.10%
profits at 1.8-2.2 billion yuan in 2016, Q4 17 68.12 0.10%
compared with losses of 2.5 billion yuan Q1 18 64.57 0.10%
the previous year. Cal 18 60.32 0.10%
Coal prices last year were stable in the [Feb 10] Iron Ore Transaction/Bid/Offer
first half before shooting up in July.
Power coal prices reached 700 yuan per Tender:
metric ton at one point in the fourth N/A
quarter, compared with slightly more
than 200 yuan per metric ton at the Transitions:
beginning of the year. Coking coal prices
100kt PB fines traded at PB fines March index+$2.3; 70kt PB lumps traded at PB
soared to 1,800 yuan per metric ton. lumps March NOR index, laycan during March 1-10 on Corex.
Iron Ore Stock Survey The increase was dampened by the signing
of mid and long-term contracts between
[Feb 10] Mysteel Iron Ore Port Stocks (0,000 ton)
Congestion Australian Brazilian Indian OresFor Stockin Daily Total Stocks Yard
coal suppliers and consumers, mainly power
Port
(Capesize, Day) Ore Ore Ore Trading BondedAreas Offtakes Stocks lastweek Capacity and steel companies, as requested by the
Qingdao 0 619 491 20 430 110 33 1450 1303 3000
government.
Rizhao 1 656 273 118 617 50 19 1381 1254 1800
Caofeidian 2 966 462 40 495 0 32.7 1669 1553 2040
Jingtang 1 908 76 62 491 0 32.1 1298 1161 1600 Jiang Zhimin, president of the CNCA, warns
Lianyungang 0 396 151 11 225 50 14.6 820 850 800 that most coal companies are still in the
Tianjin 0 656 35 8 180 20 26 930 855 1200 red. Many of them are still defaulting on
Lanshan 0 346 42 8 158 - 12.8 423 368 650
employees' salaries and pensions.
Fangchenggang 0 118 128 0 110 0 5.6 411 430 1300
Zhenjiang 0 135 26 0 210 0 1.2 316 308 500
Dalian 0 71 227 9 0 100 2.1 345 318 550 "On one hand, turning a profit has shown
Yantai 0 27 95 0 30 25 4 128 134 350 that capacity reduction has achieved
Beilun 1 293 55 0 105 0 6 440 435 500 noticeable results," he says.
Bayuquan 0 195 28 0 0 0 8.5 263 198 400
Taicang 0 171 15 0 60 - 5.5 225 190 300
Nantong 0 85 41 0 28 0 2.5 155 149 260 "On the other hand, the fast-rising prices
Rugao 0 42 18 0 28 - 1.5 78 92 350 were the unexpected result of multiple
Zhanjiang 0 57 232 0 105 - 7.3 378 388 650 factors. After all, demand has not increased.
Luojing 2 110 25 5 35 0 10.1 149 166 220
Nanjing 0 16 4 0 0 0 0.5 34 15 200
Therefore, such high prices are not
Jiangyin 2 154 121 0 265 0 6 333 303 200 sustainable."
Xiamen 0 39 2 0 0 - 2 44 37 150
Fuzhou 0 51 20 0 0 0 4.9 94 54 280 Hu Bin, an analyst at Founder CIFCO Futures,
Zhangjiagang 0 38 36 0 15 - 1.5 82 96 100
says that coal prices in 2017 may stay low
Qinhuangdao 0 28 0 0 0 0 0.5 28 25 400
Quanzhou 0 0 0 0 5 - 0 5 8 150 in the beginning and then rise to no more
Qinzhou 0 0 0 0 7 - 0 7 7 180 than 640 yuan per ton.
Changzhou 0 26 7 0 0 0 0.6 32 39 180
Dandong 0 32 25 0 0 0 2.2 61 38 300
According to a report by mysteel.com, coal
Mawan 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 75
Longkou 0 11 14 0 3 0 0.5 36 35 400
supplies this year are unlikely to increase by
Guangzhou 0 28 0 0 0 - 1.8 28 40 215 a large margin compared with last year.
31 Ports Total - 6275 2648 281 3602 355 245 11643 10848 -
Gaolan 0 6 2 0 0 0 0 8 8 100 The report says the government will increase
Shekou 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 50
its macro management of the market.
Taizhou 0 1 0 0 8 0 0 8 8 200
Majishan 0 115 63 0 10 - 9.5 257 302 350 Consequently, it added, prices are not going
Jinzhou 0 24 0 0 0 0 1 24 23 100 to fluctuate severely this year.
Yangzhou 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 200
Huanghua 0 130 30 70 75 - 12 326 310 300
-Source: China Daily
Zhoushanwu 0 80 30 0 55 - 4 118 117 90
Weifang 0 20 0 0 0 0 3 20 22 40
Laizhou 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 40 Import/Export Express of Steel
41 Ports Total - 6656 2773 351 3750 355 274.5 12410 11644 - Product and Billet/Slab in Jan, 2017
Lanqiao 0 177 30 0 270 - 2.6 349 246 500
Meijin 0 41 0 0 0 0 1 41 41 100 Chinas exports of finished steel products
Putian 0 10 2 0 0 0 0 12 12 50
edged down to 7.42 million tonnes in Jan
Maweigang 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 8 30
2017, off by 4.88% or 0.38 million tonnes
45 Ports Total - 6883 2805 351 4020 355 278.1 12820 11951 -
from 7.8 million tonnes in Dec 2016, the
[Feb 9]Steel Mill Iron Ore Stock Survey General Administration of Customs said in a
Imported Iron Ore Stock website-posted statement on Feb 10, 2017.
9-Feb 19-Jan Change
Imported Sinter Feed Avg Days (Unit: 10,000 tonnes) 26 35 -9
The nation's imports of iron ore swelled to
Domestic Iron Ore Stock 92 million tonnes in Jan 2017, advancing by
Domestic Sinter Feed Conc Stock (Unit: 10,000 tonnes) 83.5 90.4 -6.9 3.43% or 3.05 million tonnes from 88.95
Domestic Sinter Feed Conc Total Consumption (Unit: 10,000 tonnes) 10.04 8.14 1.9
million tonnes in Dec 2016.
Blast Furnaces Feed
Molten Iron Cost (Uni: yuan/tonne, tax-excluded) 2,039 2,032 7
Pellet Burden Ratio 12.57% 12.91% -0.34%
-Edited by Mysteel.net
Sintered Ore Burden Ratio 76.03% 75.48% 0.55%
Lump Burden Ratio 11.39% 11.61% -0.22%
Mysteel steel mills iron ore stock survey for imported iron ore covers 64 China based steel producers, distributed over regions
of Tangshan, Handan, Xingtai, Shandong, Shanxi, S. China and Regions along the Yangtze River. Survey samples are mainly
small/medium sized steel mills with crude steel output from 1 Mt to 10 Mt. The total pig iron output of samples accounts for
30.38% of the whole China pig iron output (According to the 2014 pig iron output, there are 15 steel mills with annual pig iron
output of 1-2 Mt, 21 mills with output of 2-3 Mt, 8 mills with output of 3-4 Mt and 20 mills with output of above 4 Mt; samples
are not changed).
Iron ore futures climb as Chinas imports rise, steel mills buy
Chinese iron ore futures jumped more than 2 percent on Friday, nearly matching multi-year peaks, lifted by news that January
imports surged in a sign of a sharp uptick in demand from steel mills as the worlds second-biggest economy picked up steam.
The upbeat sentiment was stoked by a year-on-year 12 percent rise in Chinas iron ore imports last month to 92 million tonnes, the
second highest on record for any month, despite an early Lunar New Year holiday.
Steel mills moved quickly in early January to import more ore before the New Year holiday and that pushed the number up for the
month, said Daniel Meng, an analyst at CLSA Materials & Transportation Research. While the holiday meant less imports near the
end of the month, net-net the impact was positive.
Meng cautioned that the high import figure released by the General Administration of Customs also reflected a build-up of
inventories at Chinese ports, which could slow future shipments into China. Larger steel mills in China prefer to maintain stockpiles
at around six weeks consumption, while smaller mills keep inventories at three- to four-week levels, Meng said.
Chinas iron ore stocks at ports stood at a record high last week.
The customs data was positive news that the market was half-expecting, but it still had an effect, a commodities trader in Perth,
Australia said.
Billet
Yuan/t Chg
[Feb 10] Tangshan square billet, Yuan/t, 150x150 mm, ex-works 2,920 60
Investors in the iron ore market expect Chinese economic data in the coming weeks to show the economy got off to a good start in
2017, traders said. Investors were taking heart that steady growth was giving the central bank room to slowly tighten monetary policy
and contain debt risk, they said.
Iron ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange stood at 656 yuan ($95) a tonne after peaking earlier in the session at 661 yuan, just shy
of Januarys three-year high of 666 yuan.
Major Australian iron ore exporter Rio Tinto this week said it sees continued strong demand from China, but warned another 40
million tonnes of additional global supply could come on stream in 2017.
Three years ago, China was producing about 400 million tonnes of ore but has since cut that annual figure to around 275 million,
according to analysts estimates.
The most active rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange stood at 3,255 yuan a tonne, recoiling after climbing as high as 3,273 yuan
earlier in the day.
Imports of steel products fell 8.4 percent to 1.09 million tonnes while exports fell 4.9 percent to 7.42 million tonnes, the trade data
showed.
-Source: Reuters
MYST <GO>
PHYSICAL IRON ORE DATA ON BLOOMBERG
Mysteel provides physical pricing and fundamental data for steel, iron ore, coal, coking coal and freight. Supporting both China
seaborne and port side (domestic) datasets, it is well placed to provide market intelligence. With Bloombergs recent data collaboration
with Mysteel, users can now receive iron ore port side pricing data directly through the Terminal. Snapshots throughout the day provide
the market with instant access to port side pricing, which is incorporated into Bloombergs suite of analytic tools.
Each port offers eight major brands of physical iron ore; The pricing page for the Iron iron ore port side is displayed
PBF (PB Fines), NMF (Newman Fines), Yandi (Fines), PBL (PB by port/region and by brand. Bch represents the Benchmark
Lumps), SSF (Super Special Fines), FBF (Fortescue Blended or Index price, which is determined by Mysteel each morn-
Fines), BRBF (Brazil Blended Fines) and IOCJ (Carajas Fines). ing at 08:30 SGT. Bid/Ask represents received prices, and Chg
To access the Mysteel data via the Bloomberg Terminal, type is a differential between Ask and Bch. Trd and Vol represent
the command MYST into the terminal window and then select trades and associated volume.
CTRB MySteel Singapore Pte Ltd
Bloomberg
10 Copyright Mysteel.net, 2016. All Rights Reserved
Click on the PBF brand under Rizhao this will load the China Type DES to show a full description of the product.
Rizhao Port Iron Ore PB Fines 61.5% Fe Spot ticker.
Now, type the command GP to access charts.
LEARN MORE
Please contact Myles Clement at myles.clement@mysteel.com, +65-66538220 or IB him directly for access.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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