Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
1
Pdf con testo ricercabile e segnalibri
COURTESY REUTERS
T
be United States and the whole West are facing particularly haxd times. Détente between
the superpowers has come to a standstill; world peace is in jeopardy, and mistakes now
can be more hazardous than ever before. The time has come to speak as candidly as
possible, to avoid dangerous misunderstandings among Western partners and allies.
I am a businessman, not a politician. And though I think business to be good in itself, I am fully
aware that, at criticai times in history, business may heavily depend on politica! decision-making.
Today, indeed, the decision-making process involves, to an unprecedented degree, measures in the
economie sphere. At all times it is necessary that this process-widened to include Japan as well as
Western Europe-rest on hard fact-.fìnding efforts, shared judgments, agreed principles and values,
full consultation, and the greatest possible degree of policy coordination. But when the measures
being considered are at the economie ievei, it is especially criticai to take into account the mutuai
1nus, n arorrner Japanese Foretgn Mihtsrer, Kttchi MtyaZawa, recently pur ii, mere ts fooay a
special "need for America to acknowledge the plurality of interests of the allies and accept its
consequences.... The de:fi.nition of the interests of the alliance on any issue has to become a
collective exercise." The same is emphatically true for Europe: if the United States fails to take into
account the variety of national interests and viewpoints, whieh are the result of economie structures
and of historical realities, it will be led to misjudge the reactions of its allies. Some recent and
sudden changes in American policies, as well as the inadequacy of consultations, may have made it
increasingly difficult for the Europeans and Japanese to align themselves with America's strategies,
especially when they often have little or no influence in de:fi.ning and timing such strategies.
Today, the aggressive thrust of Soviet military power, the Mideast diplomatic and political turmoil,
the skyrocketing prices and the scarcity of oil, the galloping worldwide inflation, and the strains on
the international monetary system have drastically changed the global situation and made the
economie and social position of Europe much more difficult. Yet ali this is paralleled by a new
widespread feeling of impotence on the part of the Western alliance in coping with the latest
Mideast political events, which both Iranians and Soviets have overtly exploited to their own
advantage: the former by viciously tearing down the basic principles of international relations, the
latter by trying to widen, step by step, their geopolitical sphere of influence.
In part the situation involves the newly perceived importance of relations with nations once
considered in the category of developing nations, a new predominance of North-South relations or,
as some might say, an end of Eurocentrism. But it also involves a redefìnition of the notion of
détente in East-West relations-if indeed it was ever defined at all-in terms of the roles and conduct
not only of the superpowers themselves but also of the Western countries allied with the United
States.
In this latter area, no subject is more centrai. or controversia!. than the policies to be followed in
East-West trade relations. Europe's trade with the East now far exceeds that of the United States;
yet it is the United States, not only the present Administration but its predecessors, that has
pressed for a forceful approach linked to political developments. The need for understanding and
coordination is acute.
I shall approach this subject using recent history as frame of reference. This subject has been indeed
the center of a hot debate which has not stopped to this day, creating diverging views inside the
United States itself. I then propose to sketch briefly the opportunities and problems created by
East-West trade. I shall fìnally try to draw some generai conclusions. These notes are motivated by
the desire to share my views and experience as a European industrialist who is deeply committed,
as a citizen of the West, to the improvement of relations between America and its Western partners,
for the sake of our common democratic values, the preservation of peace and for the common good
as well.
II
quantities of English goods were being sold to the Russian foreign trade monopoly of the day at the
mouth of the Narva River, a Polish waming to Elizabethan England read: "We know and feel of a
surety that the Muscovite, enemy to ali liberty under the heavens, is daily growing mighty by the
increase of such things as he brought to the Narva ... by means whereof he maketh himself strong
to vanquish all others." In the days of the second Elizabeth, the governments of the United
Kingdom and of the United States have been using the same arguments in order to advise restraint
in the sale of "advanced technology" to the U.S.S.R.
The creation of the Soviet state, and its reluctant recognition by the capitalist nations (last of all the
United States), gave the debate new impetus. In 1920, Mr. Lloyd George felt that having failed "to
restare Russia to sanity by farce," the West might "save her by trade," which, in his opinion, would
"bring an end to the ferocity, the rapine and the crudity of Bolshevism surer than any other
method." Opponents of such trade could, however, quote, against Mr. Lloyd Georgets views,
statements by the Soviet leaders which are remembered to this day, like the declaration made in
March 1921 by L. B. Kam.enev, Deputy Chairman of the centrai Soviet government:
We are convinced that the foreign capitalists, who will be obliged to work on the terms we offer
them, will dig their own grave. . . . Foreign capitai will fulfill the role Marx predicted for it....
With every additional shovel of coal, with every additional load of oil that we in Russia obtain
through the help of foreign technique, capitai will be digging its own grave.1
This statement, by the way, was being made in order to reassure the Soviet hard-liners, who feared
that trade with the West might "contaminate" the new communist society. Not so, Lenin said; on
the contrary, capitalists would even sell communists the rope with which to hang themselves.
Whether trade with the West will strengthen communism and make it more lethal, as Lenin and
friends seemed to believe, or whether it will make it "saner" and more peaceful, as Lloyd George
hoped, is a question which, to this day, has not been settled to everybody's satisfaction. The issue
took on fresh importance after World War Il, when the Soviet Union carne to be perceived as
threatening to all its neighbors including Western Europe. At the same time, the Soviets
themselves concentrated on making themselves as nearly self-sufficient as possible. especially in
areas related to military power, and for years their ability to pay for imports through the export of
needed goods or raw materials was limited, along with their willingness to borrow-while the West
1h rne past 20 years, ma espectany mme past aecaae, rne sIEuatiOn Ras cnangea atastlcatty, Bofh m
politica! and economie terms. In Europe at least, the end of the Berlin crisis in 1962 brought with it
at least a relaxation of the cold war, and the term passed from use entirely in 1971-72, with the
advent of what we now call détente. Thus, limitations and controls on Western exports to the Soviet
Union were gradually lowered, while in the 1970s the Soviet Union showed itself able to export
much increased quantities of raw materials and also of oil and methane gas-and, along with the East
European countries, more willing to enter into credit arrangements with the West.
In Europe, the new possibilities of trade and investment thus opened up were accepted with genera!
approvai, not only in the business community but in government and indeed throughout European
societies. In the United States, on the other hand, there continued to be a heated and complex
confrontation of sharply differing opinions. While the business community was generally favorable
to the expansion of trade, many trade unions were opposed or skeptical, and there were others who
continued to fear that the West might simply add to Soviet power.
The Am.erican government itself was divided between supporters, mostly in the economie and State
Departments, and skeptics, mostly in the White House. Former Secretary of State Kissinger has
given an interesting account of those debates.2 In his memoirs he tells us that, when the Nixon
Administration carne into office, the traditional restrictions on America's trade with the U.S.S.R.
were being widely criticized: liberal opinion regarded them as "archaisms of the Cold War."
President Johnson himself had announced, in October 1966, a shift from "the narrow concept of co-
existence to the broader vision of peaceful engagement," which was expressed in a series of minor
liberalizing measures on trarle and credits. Even during the Nixon years, the prevalent theory of the
Administration was that we should move from an era of confrontation into an era of negotiation
and even cooperation.
But, while the State Department generally favored liberalization on the ground that "it would
improve the politica! atmosphere" and the Commerce Department favored it in answer to the
demands of the American business community, the White House held the view that "given Soviet
needs, expanding trade without a politica! quid pro quo was a gift." This was the so-called linkage
theory. "Our strategy," Mr. Kissinger states, "was to use trade concessions as a politica! instrument,
withholding them when Soviet conduct was adventurous, and granting them in measured doses
when the Soviets behaved cooperatively."
With the development of détente, in fact, especially after the Moscow agreements of 1972, in spite
of "the White House's deterrnination to have trade follow political progress and not precede it,"
Washington seemed to have accepted the view that by creating relations of "interdependence,"
pressure groups would develop on both sides that would malre détente and cooperation between the
superpowers more secure, especially in a time of crisis. Yet there always were enough contradictions
and uncertainties about the exact meaning of détente to make it rather di:fficult to obtain universal
agreement on the connections between détente itself and the strengthening of trade relations.
leaders as domestic. This "far more ambitious form of linkage," as Mr. Kissinger rightly describes it
in his memoirs,3 culminated in the Jackson-Vanik and Stevenson Amendments of 1974, putting
em.igration conditions on most-favored-nation tariff treatment and limiting American officia!
credits, with the result that the Soviet leaders refused to go through with the trade agreements that
had heen a major feature of the origina! détente agreements of 1972.
Thus, there were domestic political factors that limited the growth of U.S.-Soviet trade, although
the policy of détente was pursued in the 1960s and 1970s with equal conviction by Europe, Japan
and successive American administrations. In addition, there are practical conditions that tend to
limit American trade with the Soviet Union.
The United States and the U.S.S.R. are both economie areas of continental size. They have a
wealth of raw material and energy resources, low population density, a high level of economie self-
su.f:lìciency. Foreign trade represents a much larger proportion of the gross national product (GNP)
for the European nations than for America and the Soviet Union. Europe's and Japan's need for
primary commodities and energy resources, together with the Soviet Union's need for manufactures
and advanced technology, creates conditions of "complementarity" among these economies which do
not exist to the same degree between the American and Soviet economies.
Whatever the balance among politica! and economie causes, in practical terms the growth of trade
links was far greater among the Western "middle powers," particularly Germany, Japan, Italy and
France, and the Soviet Union. Trade between the superpowers grew much more slowly.
The following table will better clarify the current mutuai relationship:4
OTHER
EUROPEAN
COUNTRIES
III
In addition to this basic quantitative difference, there developed important differences both in the
character of the goods traded between the Soviet bloc countries and Western Europe, on the one
hand, and these countries and the United States, on the other, and aiso on the extent to which
Western Europe and the United States entered into deais by which the West supplied capitai and
technology for new industriai enterprises and received in return a portion of the output of these
enterprises.
If one looks at the inner export structure of Western Europe's tracie with the bloc, we can see that
European Economie Community exports to East European countries (including the U.S.S.R.)
consist of 88 percent machinery and other industriai goods, the remainder being food. Imports
from the East cover only 8 percent machinery, and 17 percent semifìnished goods, the remainder
being oil, methane gas and raw materiais. In particular, imports from the Soviet Union show a still
greater prevalence of fuel, oil and raw materiais.
This trend has increased in the last few years. In fact, Soviet exports of energy to Europe have
grown remarkably. In the EEC, imports from the Soviet bloc in coal, oil and gas amount to
between .fìve and six percent of the EEC's total primary energy consumption. lt is worth noting
that the import-export mix has remained aimost unchanged during the last decade, with the
periodic floatings link.ed to Russian imports of grain. Once again a high degree of complementarity
between the European economy and the sociaiist economy becomes evident.
The current high unreliability of energy supply from traditional Middle East sources gives greater
relative importance to "marginar supplies from the Soviet Union, even though the Soviet Union,
too, is potentially unreliable. This is a condition of structural vulnerability which cannot be quickly
modifìed.
Moreover, business in Western Europe was much more prepared than American business to enter
into technology-for-output deais. Such deals are an interesting phenomenon which started with the
Eastern countries, particularly eager to cooperate with Europe, either because they lack.ed the
fìnancial means to pay far industriai technologies, or because they could partly compensate for the
stiff division of labor imposed by the Soviet Union inside the COMECON countries. Today, even
the Soviet Union does not hide its interest in this type of approach to trade. Its motivations may be
different. The Soviet Union, in fact, is industrially self-sufficient, very dose to having a trade
baiance surplus and, of course, it even benefits from a major gold output.
As a matter of fact, in Eastern countries today, we can build up joint ventures with a minority
participation of Western capitai investment and, recently, in Bulgaria, even with a majority
participation. These facts show a certain adjustment to Western patterns, considering that we are
dealing with East European countries. To date, these countries have been punctilious in honoring
1h aodiifon, ah importaht and convehieht busihess ror Western counffies dévefoped wnenever mey
could get methane gas in payment for the installation of gas pipelines connecting Eastem countries
with each other and, later, with Western Europe.
Why was American business, or in some cases the American government, reluctant to have the
United States, with its highly appreciated know-how and technology, enter into similar deals?
Obviously, the holding back was on the American side, again related to a generalized concern lest
trade and the furnishing of advanced technology contribute to Soviet military power, and on
occasion due to specifìc politica! concems, in effect a form of "linkage." The ground was therefore
clear for large West European involvement in the construction of industriai plants such as the
Togliattigrad car manufacturing facility.
One particular example of the impact of political considerations was the decision of the United
States and Japan not to cooperate with the Soviet Union in the development of the large potential
oil and gas fìelds of Eastern Siberia, especially in the Yakutsk area. This "Siberian deal" hung fìre
through the mid-1970s, but was .6.nally allowed to lapse, apparently in part lest it disturb the
development of stronger politica! and economie ties with China, but in large part also because of
security concerns that expanded oil and gas output might increase the military potential of the
Soviet Union.
lt would be inappropriate for me to criticize the American position on these matters, but I do
believe that time has shown that the Siberian deaI would have been, on balance, wise from the
standpoint of American interests as well as those of the West in generai. Specifically, had it gane
through there would be less pressure today by the Soviet Union for access, through peaceful or not
so peaceful means, to the oil of the Middle East. Obviously, that enterprise involved great risks,
both political or economie, due to the dozen billions of dollars to be invested in the project. The
Russians, who are good at long-term planning, but not very good appraisers of short-term targets,
were certainly right in foreseeing the future scarcity of energy both far themselves and the
COMECON countries. The politica! will of the West should have prevailed over myopic economie
considerations, such as an assumed collapse of international oil prices. Todays world tension
perhaps would not overwhelmingly concentrate on the Persian Gulf, which ever since Moham.med
has been an area of instability.
My conviction is that the failure of the "Siberian deal" was a great opportunity lost to world peace.
There was danger, of course, of creating a simultaneous greater dependence of the West on Soviet
energy resources. But this fact would have balanced off the intense, almost exclusive relation with
the Middle East.
Finally, because both trade and investment opportunities in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe
were picked up far more by West European (and to some extent Japanese} business than by
American business, the great bulk of the necessary financing was arranged in E urope and under
European management, albeit with extensive private American participation.
the universal view of business leaders and people involved must have some weight. Business with
the East is usually good business, for reasons which are related to its own special characteristics.
Even if intense inter-Western competition, against a monopolistic buyer, may sometimes reduce
profìt margins to narrow limits, the very size of the "buyer," as well as the size of the deals this
gigantic buyer may offer, make these relations rather unique.
Mr. Piero Savoretti, one of the leading European operators in this fìeld, estimates that almost ali
deals concluded by his trade company in recent years with the Soviet Union produced, as a result,
the construction of huge factories or the incredible expansion of already existing facilities. The most
important of these deals has been the Togliattigrad car factory.
When dealing with a unique social and economie entity such as the Soviet Union-generally rich, yet
characterized by uneven levels of development in different areas-the Western seller may use
technology which has already been developed for his own uses; or he may, if the size of the deal
justifìes it, experiment on a grander scale on new technology, which he will then find useful at
home. For some Western producers (including American grain producers), the Soviet Union, and
sometimes also the East European client-nation, can be the only client in his category, as far as the
size of possible deals is concemed.
Although the Eastern buyer is usually considered "a hard customer," who is quite aware of his
"monopsonic" powers, he is as often considered a reliable customer. He may ask for easy credit on a
large scale and accumulate debts. This applies more to East European countries than to the Soviet
1
Union. In fact the Soviet balance of trade is fundamentally sound, due to that country s great
wealth in rare minerals and energy resources. The U.S.S.R is also thought to be a reliable partner
in its payments, one that may pay in gold when necessary. Of course, a special strength is attached
to this condition: the debtor has a certain hold on his creditor.
In fact the indebtedness of East European countries is today in the arder of over $66 billion, half of
which is covered by govemment-insured export credits. Barring an impending war menace, one can
hardly believe that credit services can be cut off abruptly. For those countries, that would mean an
interruption of imports of products and equipment which are essential to ensure the continued
operation of the Western technological capitai investment underway.
A payment failure-should it hypothetically occur-would affect not only government expenses but
also the Eurodollar market. In fact the amount of money involved is relatively small, yet its impact
on the highly sophisticated mechanism of such a market would be substantial. The outcome is that
certain banks are likely to be badly hit, triggering as a consequence a chain reaction. In a situation
of this kind, the institution of a supernational body would be needed to avoid a potentially more
serious crisis for the international banking system.
Nevertheless, the special conditions of E ast-West trade do not contradict the unanimous opinion of
people involved who say that "this is good business." l t is good for the Soviet Union as well. But
IV
If this is a fair summary of the way East-West trarle has evolved, and of the prevailing European
view of its economie merits, there still remains the originai question of its political impact. Here I
must frankly state my persona! view. Based on my direct experience in this fìeld and concrete
knowledge of facts and people concemed, I believe that, on the whole and within certain limits,
trade does indeed encourage the growth, inside Soviet society, of forces and views naturally
oriented toward the pursuit of more peaceful relations with the rest of the world. It is not so
difficult to identify, in the Soviet hierarchy of power, those economie and technocratic groups which
are in favor of strengthening ties with the West for economie reasons, in arder to develop Soviet
technology and, in general, to compensate for Soviet economie failures and backwardness. If these
people and groups have a certain influence on Soviet policy-and they presumably do have one-
theirs is bound to be an influence for détente and peace, rather than for actions leading to a "cold
war" atmosphere.
Along with this pressure the Soviet Union is experiencing a certain "dissent~ which may be effective
in the context we are discussing. This is not an anti-Soviet movement, but rather a grass roots farce
that strives to introduce within the Soviet regime a greater sensitivity for an economy management
resting on economie evaluations rather than on the rigid planning of the bureaucratic military
system. We must carefully avoid stifling the emergence of such new forces. Trade restrictions would
cause serious problems for them.
As for the COMECON countries, their reliance on trade and "détente" relations with the West is
frequently linked with their aspiration for greater autonomy from the U.S.S.R. I think such
relations (more trade, more freedom, or a growing degree of self-determination, at least in
business) are evident and should not be discouraged.
I would lik.e to present one more point in favor of trade. Should the fìnal result of growth in East-
West trade be a noticeable improvement in the living standard of the Russian people, that in my
opinion would be good for Western interests. Any time I go to Moscow and see cars in the streets-
not just officia! cars, but private cars in increasing number-1 can't help seeing an evident relation
between freedom of moving around and politica! freedom, or, at least, a growing desire for it.
In conclusion, a "better ofF' Soviet Union will bave additional reasons not to risk its new affiuence
in a confrontation with the West, and it could be more easily liberalized. The breakup of East-West
economie relations would weaken those politica! forces which are supporting détente and
cooperation. The Soviet "hawks" would be strengthened in their expansionistic policies, as the only
remedy for the economie problems of the Soviet Union: arms, rather than trade, would have to be
chosen as an instrument to achieve the great ideologica! ambition of the Soviet Union.
V
the Soviet leadership, and for which that leadership can command adequate resources from inside
the Soviet territory. It is impossible to prove-with the exclusion of a few high-technology areas-that
East-West trade adds more to Soviet power than it contributes to the well-being of the Western
econom1es.
It has been claimed that, without the support of Western food and technology, the Soviets would be
forced to divert essential skills and resources from the production of armaments. That is hard to
believe. The politica! control of Soviet society by the communist system is such that it surely can
concentrate on armaments production as much strength as it considers necessary to achieve its
aims. This was the case during the past decades when the level of available resources-and the living
standards of the Soviet people-were immeasurably lower than they are now. The Stalinist regime
was the dreadful outcome of such hard times. Today's conditions are sharply different. Yet the
structural over-power of the Soviet bureaucratic and military system does not seem to have
changed. To some extent, it automatically produces the required concentration of human and
materia! resources in high-priority areas, within the fundamental aims of a global strategy
determined by the system itself. To blame East-West trade for the increase in Soviet power during
the last decade or so is therefore unrealistic. lt is especially so when considering how small these
exchanges are if compared with the size of the Soviet economy. In fact, the latest data available
show that the tota! Western tracie {including American) with the U.S.S.R., in 1978, is no higher
than 1.4 percent of estimated Soviet GNP.
Finally, one should not forget that a net separation still exists between the "clvii" and "military"
sectors of the Soviet economy. The Soviet leadership, being well aware of the inadequacies of its
economie system, mak.es quite sure that the "military" sector remains independent of developments
in the "civil" sector of the economy. They have concentrated there the very best of their technicians
and scientists with a system that rewards only the people engaged in that sector. This structure
allows for, and explains, the high rate of innovation in the weapons industry and, vice versa, the
slow transferring of innovations in the civil segment of industry.
Soviet technological developments in the "military" field, including, for instance, space research,
have not lagged behind Western developments, and have occasionally taken the lead, quite aside
from the level of East-West trade. From Sputnik onward, the experience of the last two or three
decades is there to prove it.
Yet experts and Western governments still think that a certain number of high-technology
products-such as electronic equipment and miniaturization-must be excluded from East-West trade,
because they have a recognizable strategie value, being directly usable for arms production. Western
governments have agreed on lists of "forbidden" goods, which vary from time to time. I happen to
believe this policy is correct, insofar as these lists are kept under constant review and these
prohibitions can in fact be rigorously enforced. It represents, in fact, a "safety rule" that it is
1h fhe fasi anatySis, fhe questlon ls ohe or juogmem. li ffie West were fo Muse fo build pfaniS iri
the U.S.S.R. orto supply the technology and machinery to make them workable, would the result
be that a number of the most skilled Soviet technicians would have to be diverted from military
work in order to meet the minimum demands of the Soviet people? This seems to be the conclusion
of much American argument. To me it seems dubious. I am concerned that the result might be,
instead, not only a cooling of officia! relations and a tendency to retum to an irrevocable cold war
mentality on both sides but, within the Soviet economy, a belt-tightening and partial retum to the
Stalinist era, justified to the Russian people by the demonstrated hostility of the West.
VI
But could East-West trade be used to influence and condition Soviet policies? This is the
assumption on which the Kissinger "linkage" theory was obviously based, on the premise that the
Soviets are more interested than the West in economie relations and, therefore, can be made to pay
for trade deals in that delicate currency called "politica! good behavior." It is also the apparent
assumption behind the measures taken by the Carter Administration in response to the Soviet
occupation of Afghanistan, including the cancellation of grain exports (above the annua! levels
guaranteed in the 1975 agreement on this subject), the tightening of agreed export controls in
military-related areas, and, in addition, the attempt to limit ali forms of technology-bearing
exports. The Carter Administration has asked its NATO allies to join in ali three of these measures,
and there has in fact been a high level of agreement on the fìrst two-Europe is not replacing the
denied American grain (though Argentina, alas, may have done so to a very great extent, and to the
tune of greatly increased ties to the U.S.S.R.), and tightened controls on military-related items
seem to be on the way to being accepted.
But the attempt to limit technology-bearing exports has not met with a similar favorable response,
leading to the suspicion that there may even be a converse premise-that Europe, at least, is more
interested in East-West trade than the Soviet Union, so that the Soviet leaders are in a position to
demand from West European nations their own form of "political good behavior." In its extreme
fonn, the fear is expressed that Western Europe may become-or perhaps has already become-
"Finlandized," which presumably means net objecting to Soviet politica! or military actions no
matter how threatening.
I believe the situation is not as simple as either of these two premises would suggest. I know of no
instance in which the behavior of the parties involved could be taken as proof that there really was
any sign of political-economic dependence of one on the other. We cannot presume that we could
have the other side in our power by withholding Western trade. As a matter of fact, Mr. Kissinger's
"linkage" theory never worked because political and economie interdependencies are much more
complex, and the linkage, to be effective, calls for a much longer time span than is available in an
emergency. The Soviet Union almost certainly cannot be induced to moderate its extemal behavior
by the withholding of trade by the West, or at least will net do so in any case where it believes it is
protecting or advancing major Soviet interests.
Curtain-just to m.aintain tracie with the East.
Yet there can be no question that Western European nations view the issue of reducing or cutting
off trade with the East with substantially greater concerns than are felt in the United States for the
impact on their own societies. I have already mentioned the fact that significant energy supplies are
now imported by Western Europe from the Soviet Union. More broadly, though this type of
calculation has a large margin of uncertainty, it is estimated that about 300,000 jobs in Europe are
directly dependent on trade with the Eastern bloc. And indirect jobs of course are far higher. lt
should not be difficult for America (although it apparently is) to understand that a cut in the level
of trade relations with the Soviet bloc is, in economie and social terms, much more costly for
Europe than for America itself. Although the amount of tracie between the European Community
and the COMECON countries is fairly modest and would seem therefore not likely to produce
serious consequences should that amount be sharply reduced or eliminated, the cut will be mainly
concentrated in particular segments of the mechanical industry, with much more sizable negative
effects. Actually, the real damage suffered would be much greater: the "cost and benefìt" assessment
of such a strategy is therefore bound to have quite different results for America than it has for its
allies. This fact ought to be taken into consideration before, rather than after, sudden changes in
policy are decided by the American Adrninistration.
Thus, one can easily understand that the adequacy of the instrument of economie retaliations
against Soviet rnisdeeds, as cornpared with other possible actions, is bound to appear quite different
to the minds of American and European decision-mak.ers. Of course, ali this does not deal with
rnatters of loyalty. Rather, it deals with different realities and perceptions which seern not to be
taken adequately into account. lt is very difficult for the instrument of economie retaliation to
work, especially over short terms, unless the party one wants to hit is in a condition of particular
weakness. It is even more difficult whenever the retaliating party is itself badly hit, not only in
terms of jobs, energy supplies, and similar tangible elements, but in terms of the very large human
stak.e that one country in particular, the Federai Republic of Germany, has in the continuation of an
Ostpolitik that has made a tremendous difference to communication and movement among the
German people as a whole.
In short, even as Western Europe has greater trade ties than the United States with the Soviet
Union and other East European countries, so it necessarily takes far more seriously the impact of
any impairment of those ties.
But by the same token Europeans may have a greater "feel" for what trade with the West is doing, in
the long run, to the attitudes and felt desires not only of the Soviet people but of Soviet leaders.
The conviction that over the long run the influence in these key respects is a positive one could, of
course, yield if the Soviet Union took an action such as I have suggested above. Afghanistan may
bave brought us all very dose to that point, but most Europeans are not yet persuaded that it has
been reached.
or EasE-Wesf fradé. I his outline iS meanE as a cohifibutlon fo adébate whicn oughE robe urgently
undertaken in both governmental and non-governmental circles.
1. Tracie, according to Western values and culture, is, in itself, a good thing, and we should pursue it
with the Eastern bloc as well, unless there are compelling reasons to the contrary.
2. The idea that Soviet global or domestic policies can be madified and improved through trade
"linkage" has been proved unrealistic. One cannot reduce the expansionist impact of Soviet policies
by withholding trade. On the contrary, one might even increase it.
3. The claim that Soviet policies will become more moderate and peaceful as a result of a higher
leve! of trade and economie interdependence with the West is also beyond proof. Yet, experience
tells us that the growth of trade strengthens forces and individuals inside Soviet society which are
recognizably committed to détente with the West and to peaceful policies.
4. The danger that economie interdependence may bring about the "Finlandization" of Europe and
the West remains, for the time being, purely a theoretical possibility, nota reality. The true danger
of "Finlandization" was actually removed when Western Europe became a powerful economie
community, strongly embedded into the fabric of international trade.
5. A certain number of well-defined areas of strategie importance ought to be excluded from East-
West trade, in order to deprive the other side of goods which could be used for military purposes.
6. A distinction should be made between trade with the Soviet Union and trade with the Eastern
bloc countries. Some of the political arguments being currently advanced in the West against
excessive dependence of our economies on trade with the Soviet Union could be used in favor of an
increasing level of tracie between some of the Soviet Union's European allies and the West. Should
two separate sets of rules be devised?
7. Any strategy agreed upon in the matter of trade with the Soviet bloc must either be a common
policy for ali Western countries, or it will be no policy at all. H the rules of the game are not
respected by ali (the present rules very often are not), no policy will prove workable. (For examplet
it is known that the recent Paris agreements on government-assisted credit aids have been overtly
violated by some countries just a few hours after the signature.)
political instruments for achieving this new kind of coordinated policies do not seem to exist. It is
unthinkable that it is just up to the businessmen to fill up such a vacuum.
9. Unilateral actions of any kind, creating a fait accompli and facing others with an apparent choice
between "loyalty" and "vital interest" are dangerous far the unity of the Western alliance. The lack
of a comprehensive Western strategy today is evident: so long as the situation remains so, the prime
beneficiary will be the U.S.S.R Necessary rules should be established that take into account the
relative exposures to risks of the individual members, both in economie and political terms.
Businessmen cannot be expected to define such strategies. They can only be asked, in a well-
ordered democratic society, to pursue proper economie aims and to respect guidances agreed upon
by governments. These governments must, however, tak.e into account the principle of equality of
opportunity far all, and recognize the values of a free-market economy.
1 Quoted in George F. Kennan, Russia and the West Under Lenin and Stalin, Boston: Little,
Bro"Wtt,1961,p. 187.
3 Ibid., p. l272.
5 The term "Western countries" was used by the compilers of these figures to include the members
of the Organization for Economie Cooperation and Development {OECD), less Turkey but with
the additions of Israel and South Africa. The share of these last two countries in East-West trade is
of course minimal.
lavoce.info
Home • Argomenti >Collcorrenu. e me rati • KenneAh AnvN, Il rtwfuzlonarlo della teoria
Commenta
Kenneth Am>wè stato un gigi11ltt tkll'«onomia, è tuttora ilpiù giovaM 'tlindto~ del ~mio Nobel per l'economia. È stato un pioniere di
molte disc/pi/ne e Il suo lavoro ha rivoluzionato Il modo di f.ue teoria. La sua ricerca all'Insegna di /nesaurlblle curiosità e flgorosa onestit
Intellettuale.
Il 21 febbraio si~ spento Kenneth ArrtM. ~stato un gigante dell'economia -tuttora il più giovane vincitore del premio Nobel per l'economia..
Lo vtnse a 51 anni conJohn Hlcks per Il suo contributo alla teoria dell'equlllb11o generale. Avrebbe meritato senz'altro un altro premio da
solo per il teorema dell'impossibilità e probabilmente un altro per la sua teoria della crescita endogena, o per lo studio delle asimmetrie
lnformatlvt, o per Il suo contrtbuto alla teol1a del merca'lt tlnanzlarl. Almeno quattro suol studenti - John Harsanyl, Erlc Maskln, Roger
Myerson, Mlcha.el Spence - hanno ricevuto Il premio Nobel.
Tuttavia, l'Influenza di ArrtYN sulla scienza economica va oltre la somma di questi contributi. Il suo lavoro ha rivoluzionato Il modo di fare
teoria. Prima di lul I modelll er.uio usati prevalentemente per formalizzare le relazioni tra val1ablll In maniera concisa e per dimostrare altre
relazioni da poter successivamente testare empiricamente o utilizzare a scopi predlttM e normativi. ArrtYN Invece ha dimostrato che la teol1a
pub fare di più: pub svelare Importanti fenomeni economici che non riuscivamo a riconoscere senza la guida del modello giusto. Una volta
Identificati, questi fenomeni cl permettono di spiegare la realtà In maniera più soddisfacente, di elaborare nuovt modelll più calzanti e di
usare megllo l'evtdenza empll1ca.
Cosl, per esempio, dopo avere giocato un ruolo centrale nello sviluppo del due teoremi fondamentali dell'economia del benessere (efflclenu.
del mercati concorrenziali e ruolo della dlstrtbuzlone lnlzlale delle 11sorse), e mentre Il resto degli economisti teorici celebrava e raffinava
questi belllsslml risultati, ArrCN/ lnlzlb a chiedersi qual era li loro punto più debole.
se f'ossimo riusciti a creare una struttura concettuale così perfetta come la teoria dell'equilibrio generale, ~probabile che molti di noi
sarebbero stati tentati di tr.ucorrere il resto della vita professionale ad ammirar1a (e a farla ammirare ad altn"). Atraw, invece, appena finito
di costruire l'edlflclo, si mise a cercare Il modo migliore di farlo cadere. ~una profonda lezione per tutti gli economisti, e probabllmente per
allTI scienziati, soclall e non - una lezione di curiosità sclentlflca e di onestà Intellettuale.
Arraw trovi> Il punto debole del teoremi del benessere In un fenomeno a cui era stata dedicata poca attenzione: lasimmetria Informativa tra
agenti: che cosa sua:ede se A non osserva tutto quello che B sa o tutto quello che C fa?
In uno straordlnal1o articolo del 1963, Intitolato •uncertalnty and the Welfare Economlcs of Medicai Care•, Ken Arff1W mostra come la
presenza di selezione avversa (A non osserva tutto quello che Bsa) possa rendere un mercato Inefficiente, riducendo Il numero di
transazioni e Il benessere di chi Y1 partecipa. E lo dimostra In un contesto, quello della assicurazione medica, che è ancora di grande
attualità. Obamacare va Interpretata come un tentativo di riparare Il "falllmento del mercato" creato dalla selezione avversa. Il premio Nobel
del 2001 a George Akerlof, Mlchael Spence e Joe Stlglltz è un riconoscimento dell'Importanza di questo tipo di modelll nello spiegare una
serie di Inefficienze di mercato e nel proporre rimedi contrattuali e leglslatM.
In quello stesso articolo, Arrfl'N discute anche l'azzardo morale (A non osserva tutto quello che C fa). Anche questa parte è l'Inizio di
qualcosa di molto Importante: Il premio Nobel del 2016 a Ollver Hart e Bengt Holmstrom per li loro conttlbuto alla teo11a del contratti è Il
coronamento di cinquanta anni di ricerca sulle Istituzioni che si sviluppano per ridurre l'effetto dell'azzardo morale.
Arraw, che era nato a New York nel 1921, partecipò alla seconda guerra mondiale nel servizio di mete.crologla, utilizzando modelll
matematici per predire le condizioni del tempo sulla Manica In funzione della sbarco alleato In Normandia. Ottenne Il dottorato presso la
Columbia Unlversltv sotto la guida di Harold Hotelllng (autore del modello di concorrenza spazlale). Trascorse gran parte della sua carriera
accademica a Stanford, eccezion fatta per nove anni a Harvard, a cavallo tra gli anni Sessanta e gll anni Settanta.
Sempre la cul1osltà sclentltlca e l'onestà Intellettuale avevano portato Am:rw alla flne degli anni Quaranta al famosissimo teorema
dell'lmposslbllltà. che dimostra che non esiste un modo universale e raglonevole di determinare le preferenze della società sulla base delle
preferenze del cittadini. ArrtYN, che si professò sempre un simpatizzante socialista, era partito cercando di modellare la società perfetta.
Non rtuscendo a trovare un modello soddisfacente, lnlzlb a chiedersi se tale società esistesse veramente. Il teorema dell'lmposslbllltà è la
rtsposta, che Ancsw accettò suo malgrado, e che diede origine alla teoria delle scelte sociali, una delle tante discipline di cui è considerato un
pioniere.
Tutd coloro che hanno conosciuto Ken sono rimasti colpltl, oltre che dalle sue dote lntellettuall, dal suo entusiasmo e dalla sua generosità.
Ho avuto l'enorme fortuna di aver1o avuto come relatore di dottorato a Stanford negll anni Novanta. Dopo l'Iniziale terrore all'Idea di
rivolgermi a un mostro sacro dell'economia, scoprii una persona spiritosa, gentile e straordinariamente umile, che non voleva parlare dei
suoi successi e preferiva ascoltare con pazienza le idee confuse di un dottorando italiano e dare consigli che si rivelavano sempre corretti.
Commenta
Stampa
In questo articolo si parla di: Arrow, equilibrio economico generale, Kenneth Arrow, teorema di Arrow
BIO DELL'AUTORE
ANDREA PRAT
AS Asuppller of momenwy rellef, the Great Depresslon seems an unllkel.y candidate. But
when it turns up on page 363 ofwalter Scheldel's "The Great Levelet' lt feeb oddly welcome.
Jloronce-and it is only once, forno 01her Il!a!Ssion in American history boalltli the same
achievement-real wages rise an.d the incomes of the most affluent fall to a degree that has a
"powerful impact on economie inequallty". Yes, ltbrought wldespread suffering and dreadful
mlsery. BUtltdld notbrlngdeath to mllllons, andln thatltstands out.
If that counts as relief, you can begin to imagine the scale of the woe that comes before and
after. Mr Scheidel, a Vienna-born historian now at Stanford University, puts the discussion of
increased inequality found in the recent work of Thomas Piketty, Anthony Atkinson, Branko
Milanovic and others into a broad historical context and examines the circumstances under
which it can be reduced.
Having assembled a huge range of scholarly literature to produce a survey that starts in the
Stone Age, he finds that inequality within countries is almost always either high or rising,
thanks to the ways that politica! and economie power buttress each other and both pass down
generations. It does not, as some bave suggested, carry within it the seeds of its own demise.
Only four things, Mr Scheidel argues, cause large-scale levelling. Epidemics and pandemics
cando it, as the Black Death did when it changed the relative values of land and labour in late
medieval Europe. So can the complete collapse of whole states and economie systems, as at
the end of the Tang dynasty in China and the disintegration of the western Roman Empire.
When everyone is pauperised, the rich lose most. Total revolution, of the Russian or Chinese
sort, fits the bill. So does the 2oth-century sibling of such revolutions: the war of mass-
mobilisation.
And that is about it. Financial crises increase inequality as often as they decrease it. Politica!
reforms are mostly ineffectual, in part because they are often aimed at the balance of power
between the straightforwardly wealthy and the politically powerful, rather than the lot of the
have-nots. Land reform, debt relief and the emancipation of slaves will not necessarily buck
the trend much, though their chances of doing so a bit increase if they are violent. But
violence does not in itself lead to greater equality, except on a massive scale. "Most popular
unrest in history", Mr Scheidel writes, "failed to equalise at all."
Perhaps the most fascinating part of this book is the careful accumulation of evidence
showing that mass-mobilisation warfare was the defining underlying cause of the
unprecedented decrease in inequality seen across much of the Western world between 1910
and 1970 (though the merry old Great Depression lent an unusual helping band). By
demanding sacrifice from all, the deployment of national resources on such a scale under
such circumstances provides an unusually strong case for soaking the rich.
Income taxes and property taxes rose spectacularly during both world wars (the top income-
tax rate reached 94 % in America in 1944, with property taxes peaking at 77% in 1941). Physical
damage to capi tal goods slashed the assets of the wealthy, too, as did post-war inflations. The
wars also drove up membership in trade unions-one ofthe war-related factors that played a
part in keeping inequality low fora generation after 1945 before it started to climb backup in
the 198os.
The 2oth century was an age of increasing democratisation as well. But Mr Scheidel sees this
as another consequence of its total wars. He follows Max Weber, one of the founders of
sociology, in seeing democracy as a price elites pay for the co-operation of the non-
aristocratic classes in mass warfare, during which it legitimises deep economie levelling.
Building on work by Daron Acemoglu and colleagues, Mr Scheidel finds that democracy has
no clear effect on inequality at other times. (Anice parallel to this 2oth-century picture is
provided by classical Athens, a democracy which also saw comparatively low levels of income
inequality-and which was also built on mass-mobilisation, required by the era's naval
warfare.)
Catastrophic levellings will be less likely in future. Pandemics are a real risk, but plagues
similar in impact to the Black Death are not. Nor are total revolutions and wars fought over
years by armies of millions. On top of that, since the Industrial Revolution general prosperity,
regardless of inequality, has risen. And in past decades global inequality has fallen.
Good news in general, but news which leaves readers who would like to see significantly less
unequal individual economies in a bit of a pickle. Futile though Mr Scheidel thinks it may
prove, attempts to ease inequality democratically through redistributive policies and the
empowerment of labour at least show no signs of doing actual harm. They may, indeed, keep
the further growth of inequality in check, but they can hardly dent the direction of change.
And they may have opportunity costs; if history provides no support for thinking that deep,
peaceful reduction of inequality is possible, perhaps progressives should set themselves
other tasks.
There are two other possibilities. One is to note that historical circumstances change. As Mr
Scheidel shows, the 2oth century was qui te different from all those that carne before. Is it not
possible that another less horrible but equally profound transformation in the way that
people and nations get along with each other, or fail to, is yet to come? If, for example,
increasingly economically important non-human intelligences decided that they would
rather not be owned by anyone, thus in effect confiscating themselves from their owners,
could that not make a difference?
The other possibility is that some may see civilisational collapse as a price worth paying for
the Utopia they might build in the rubble-or may just like to see the world burn. Individuals
and small groups can dream of nuclear- or biotechnologically-mediated violence today on a
scale that was inconceivable in the past. Wealth may ineluctably concentrate itself aver time;
the ability to destroy does not.
This article appeared in the Books and arts section of the print edition under the headline ''Apocalypse then"
Thursdey Mar 2, 2017
SHARE PiEWSLETTER
0 0 0
WHAT WE'RE FOLLOWING
Sessions and Russia: The U.S. attomey general and former adviser to Tnrmp's
presidential campaign has recused himself from the federal investigation into
Russia's alleged interference with the U.S. election. After last night's revelation that-
contrary to Session's statements during his confirmation process-he was in
contact with Russia's ambassador during the campaign, Sessions faced mounting
pressure from both Dem and GOP lawmakers to resign or recuse himself. Though the
story seems to parallel the events leading to Mike Flynn's firing last month, Trump has
expressed "total" confidence in Sessions, so there's no indication he'll step down-but
if late-breaking news strikes again, you can find our latest coverage bere.
Genetic Genius: The future of data storage might be in DNA: Two scientists in
New York have successfully encoded a movie, a computer virus, an Amazon gift card,
and even more data within the same molecule that encodes the blueprint for life.
Elsewhere, a team in Russia has completed a discovery decades in the
making: sequencing the DNA of an Ice-.Age squirrel that Gulag prisoners found in
1946. That team effort spanned not only centwies but species; the scientists got help
fromafox.
SNAPSHOT
Melissa Eich, a speeeh pathologist, pra.ctices signing the word '"thank you" with a
second-grade student in Charlottesvill.e, VD"ginia, OD Novemher 17. 2016. Melissa's
husband, photographer Matt Bich, documented herworkclay as part of our series of
photo essays OD the.American workpJace, More photos here.
EVE!jllj8 RE.AD
Emily :Esfahani Smith on the psychiatrist William Breitbart, who "lives at the edge of
llfe and death":
ls there oDe?
Breitbart has spent tbe better part ofhi.s career trying to answer that question. His
ground-breaking research shows tbat while the specter of death often Jeads people
to conclude that their lives are meaningless, it can also be a catalyst for them to
work out, as tbey Dever bave before, the meaning of their lives.
Keep reading bere, as Smith recounts how Breitbart's patients find meaning in the
face of death. And go bere for a series of reader stories on how their loved ones died
and how they themselves would like to go.
3. To help spread its strict form of Islam in the nation of _______, Saudi Arabia
has spent millions of dollars to establish and maintain a free university, several Arabic
language institutes, over 100 boarding schools, and more than 150 mosques.
URBAN DEVELOPMENTS
Our partner site CityLab explores the cities of the future and investigates the biggest
ideas and issues facing city dwellers around the world. Adam Sneed shares three of
today's top stories:
The steady marcb of gentrification isn't a foregone conclusion. For proof, just
look to East L.A.'s Boyle Heights, the neighborbood that went to war against
gentrifiers.
Bflre parldng, stacb ofhooks, artwork, and a rooft:op garden. No, it's not
a hipster cafe-it's the world.'s best bus stop.
For more updates from the urban world, subserlbe to CltyLab's daily newsletta.
AMERICA BY AIR
My nephew, Joe Burkhart, took tbis photo on bis iPhone ss from our 1964 Piper
P2.8-235 en mute from Massachusetts (KPSF) to Michigan (KPLN) inAugust 2015.
Buffalo Approach [radar that controls regional traffic up to roughly 5000 feet] is
very helpful with the sightseeing corridorwb.en they're not too busy. lt's a beautiful
view of a great American resource.
See manymore aerial photos from readers he:re, and send us your own
via hello@theatlantlc.eom (guidelines here).
READER RE8POH8E
Continuing our series of persona} stories of your first experience with a
firearm, this reader recalls the dark history ofher family's revolver:
My first experience with "the gun" was when my grandfather killed himself with it
when I was 16. My sister, dad, grandfather, and I hadjust had breakfast and
everything seemed normal to me. I didn't even jump when I heard the shot because
we lived out in the country, and people were always shooting at something.
But that event led me to learn the history of "the gun." It had been used 40 years
earlier by my grandmother's first husband in a shoot-out with the police, after
she'd called them to protect her from his drunken abusiveness. So this .38
Detective Special had caused the death of both her husbands.
"The gun" was left to my mother who, at age 91, had it cleaned and bought bullets
for it. As her behavior became more erratic with dementia, my husband and I were
able to get it away from her. If I possibly can, I will bury it with her.
VERBS
SHARE PiEWSLETTER
0 0 0
WHAT WE'RE FOLLOWING
The White House and Russia: As fallout continues over Jeff Sessions's contact with
Russia's ambassador, the nation's foreign minister dismissed the controversy as a
"witch hunt." But such a climate of heightened anxiety may be precisely the
problem: Trump's repeatedly d.isproven denials of contact between bis campaign
and the country accused of interfering with the election undermine the public's trust no
matter how innocent such contact may be. Intelligence officers under Obama even hid
evidence from their Russia investigation in a secret wiki for fear the incoming
administration would sweep it under the rug. But for all the U.S. politicians who fear the
influence of an authoritarian Russia, there are others who see radical Islamic terrorism
as a much greater threat-leaving American leaders split on which ideological war
towage.
Budget Batties: President Trump is due to send an officiai outline of his budget to the
Senate within the next couple of weeks, and it's not likely to go over well: Though
he'll need the support of some Dems plus the whole GOP to get his massive increase in
defense spending approved, he's already getting pushback even from some Republican
leaders. But at least the U.S. isn't alone in suffering discord within its ruling
party; here's a list of countries in the same predicament. Should Congress need some
advice, we asked the readers of our Politics & Policy Daily newsletter what they would
do if they were in charge of the federai budget. Check out their responses, and sign
up for the newsletter bere.
Bomb Threats Suspect: The FBI has arrested Juan Thompson, a former reporter
at The Interceptwho was fired in 2016 for fabricating stories, in connection with some
of the recent bomb threats made against J ewish organizations. Thompson has been
linked to eight specific threats, but there's no indication he's responsible for the broader
trend; instead, he appears to have been imitating ongoing threats as part of a campaign
to harass his ex-girlfriend. Here's what we know.
SNAPSHOT
Acatyawns near the Eyup Sultan Masque in Istanbul, Turkey, on February 27,
2017. See more of the week's best photos bere. (Ozan Kose / AFP / Gett;y)
EVE!jllj8 RE.AD
lt's a colei January afternoon outside the Las Vegas Convention Center.... rm at
World ofConcrete, the concrete and masonryindustry's South by Southwest-a
five-day showthat has summoned more than 60,000 attendees. Concrete takes
many forms here-thick liquid, solid blocks, even slender decorative ribbons. The
riDk in front of me is poured concrete, and the macbjnes are riding trowels wh.ose
whirring blades smooth down concrete tloors into a mirrored sheen....
This is also the week of the presidential inauguration. ••• Trump paved. bis pathway
to the White House with pledges to build roads, hospitals, and, of course, a •great
great wall." So now rm staring at riding trowels in an effort to answer what I soon
realize is not an easy question. How do Trump's high-octane and often contentious
campaign promises sit with the people who will actually be doing the building?
Between 1980 and 2013, the share of American babies born to unmarried mothers
1.
went from 18 to _______ percent.
2. In the new horror film Get Out, the protagonist (played by Daniel Kaluuya) tells much
of the story using only his _ _ _ _ __
From our January 1861 issue, "Paul Revere's Ride" by Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
(wbo would bave been 210 this week):
Read the full poem bere, and more on how it's echoed through history bere.
AMERICA BY AIR
Area.der, Vasudha Gidugn, a.dds a new state to our serles of ae:rlal photos-West
VJ.rginia:
When I fly, I like to get the window seat, especially on long fligbts when I know
we•re going to be f1ying aver interesting landscapes. Hills end mountains are a
particularlyfavorite of mine. When I took this photo, I knewwe were near
Shenandoah National Park. I couldn't get that, but then I saw these interesting
rocky formations end discovered what they were later.
What Vasudba spotted was Seneea Rocks, a popular piace for rock climbers in the
Monongahela National Forest and one of the most scenic attractions in West VJ.rginia.
That brings usto seven U.S. states not covered in America by.Air out of the 50 total: cr.
GA, MS, NM, ND, and Rl. lf you bave a good aerial photo above one of them, please
send it our way: hello@theatlantlc.com (guidelines here).
READER RESPONSE
The promise of digitai technology was: spinning piles of straw into useful pieces of
gold.
My reality is: looking for golden needles in a giant haystack of unusable straw.
I spend so much time looking for the few things actually useful to my project, my
writing, my daily info needs, and by the end of the day I feel like I've wasted so
much time and effort sorting through useless crap. And the pile of useless keeps
getting bigger and bigger, like a bad dream.
More reader responses here-including some tips for productive distraction. And
check back bere on Monday for the next discussion topic in our "Question Your
Answers" series.
VERBS
SHARE PiEWSLETTER
0 0 0
WHAT WE'RE FOLLOWING
Backlash to Backlash: After Trump's election and his controversial policies sparked
protests across the country, GOP legislators in multiple states have proposed bills aimed
at curbing such demonstrations. Much of the legislation hinges on arguments that
protests cause danger and disorder, and new scientific evidence shows that nonviolent
protest is most effective. Meanwhile, scientists themselves have become newly
politically active, leading some to worry their outspokenness will damage their
credibility-but a new study suggests that isn't really the case.
Other Eruptions: Less than a week after scientists announced the discovery of seven
potentially habitable exoplanets, a new study indicates that the habitable zone of
outer space could be even larger: Volcanoes could keep some planets warm enough
to support liquid water, and life. Back on Earth, however, volcanoes pose a danger to
humans-and though the U.S. is among the world's most volcanically active countries,
its system for watching and predicting eruptions leaves a lot to be desired.
SNAPSHOT
An untitl.ed photo posstblytaken in South River, New Jersey, in Febrlwy 1936 and
defaced witb a hole punch. Roy Stryker, head of tbe Farm Securit;y Infonnation's
lnformation Division, used tbis metbod of vetoiDg work from tbe agency's
photographers throughout tbe 193os-resulting in some surreal images. See more
holes punehed. through hfstory he:re. (Carly Mydans / Llbrary ofCongress)
EVE!jllj8 RE.AD
lan Bogost on the exbaustion tbat comes from a oompulslve obsesslon wlth
smartphones:
Keep reading bere, as lan outlines how Nokia's new "dumbphone" model could
foretell an alternate technological future.
2. Mahershala Ali, the first Muslim actor to win an Academy Award, follows a sect of the
faith that is outlawed in the nation of - - - - - - -
URBAN DEVELOPMENTS
Our partner site CityLab explores the cities of the future and investigates the biggest
ideas and issues facing city dwellers around the world. Adam Sneed shares three of
today's top stories:
Housing prices are surging because there aren't enough homes being built where
they're needed most. Underneath that trend is deeper problem: a staggering
productivity crisis in the construction industry.
Transit systema across the U.S. are losing riders. There's any number of culprits,
from bad service to cheap oil to the rise ofUber. Where are those riders going, and
what cm cities doto w.in them baek?
lf Donald Trump is ready to bulld that waD, he's got plenty of w:i1ling partners in
the private sector: So far, more than 180 architecture and engjneering firms
bave bld. for the federai. contract (and only a few appear to be prmks).
For more updates from the urban world, subscrlbe to CltyLab's claily newsletter.
AMERICA BY AIR
This is the Crescent Dunes Solar Bnergy project, in the Nevada desert, as seen on a
flight from Denverto San Francisco last November. I hadjust heard about it OD
NPR when I sa.w it right under our flight path. (lf I hadn't listened, I would bave DO
idea what itwas.)
More on tbat solar plant (which uses molten salt!) and many more readerphotos here.
RE.AllER RE8P0Jj8E
How will history remember your lifetime? Readers on the TAD discussion group
explored that question today after trying out our new Life Timeline feature, which
gives you a personalized timeline ofhow historical events line up with your life so far.
One reader wrote:
I'm part of that generation too: My timeline tells me I'm one of the first people who's
never lived in a world without texting, and that my life can be divided in two halves-
before and after Facebook. But history changes constantly, and in a few years the
defining moments of my lifetime may look completely different. What are yours? Find
your own timeline here-and if one of your milestones sparks a detailed memory or
particularly surprises you, feel free to tell us about it via hello@theatlantic.com.
VERBS
Finance redefined, doctors discriminate, bird experts bicker, love lesson learned.
SHARE PiEWSLETTER
0 0 0
WHAT WE'RE FOLLOWING
Budget Points: Trump didn't offer many policy details in the speech, but he did
mention making health insurance cheaper. The GOP has suggested doing this by scaling
baclc what basic plans are required to cover-but for those who do need more extensive
benefits Oike matemity care or mental-health coverage), insurance would get a lot
more expensive. And that'sjust one potential sticking point: Trump's economie pian,
which also involves major tax cuts and an increase in military spending, has
been divisive within bis own party and could hurt his voter base.
Government Insiders: So, can Trump get Congress to carry out his agenda? He's
been running into legislative roadblocks recently, though he's had some success
charming some of the lawmakers. Meanwhile, his Cabinet is moving slowly toward
completion, most recently with today's confirmation of Ryan Zinke as interior
secretary. But in the State Departm.ent, where numerous key posts are left unfilled,
officials are anxious: The White House has announced that radical foreign-policy
change is coming, but current employees seem to know very little about what's
goingon.
SNAPSHOT
Photographer Michael B. Hardie caught this image of an octopus ricling the back of a
turtle in Hawaii for Smithsonian magazine•s 2016 photo contest. See more of the
flnalf&1B here.
EVElllll8 RE.AD
DeVos is nowCalvin's most famous alum, and in recent weeks, the school has
been palnted. in some clrcles both online and in conversation as a conservative,
insular institution that helped spawn a controversial presidential-cabinet member
intent on using public dollars to further religious education. But tbat is a grossly
simplified narrative, and one that obscures the nuances and very real tensions at
theschooL
In more than a do7.en interviews, professors, students, and alumni of ali political
stripes painted a picture of a college where intellectual diversity and thought-
provoking debate are the norm, and where the belief that followers of the Christian
Refonned Churcli, with which the school is affiliated, bave an obligation to engage
with the world a.round them compels both instructors and students to qu.estion
wbat theythink they know.
Keep reading bere, as Emily explores Calvin's history of fierce debate and the
complications of its present.
1. In the wild, elephants sleep for an average of _______ hours every night.
LOOK BACK
Yellowstone National Park was established on this day in 1872. In our Aprii 1898
issue, John Muir described the landscape:
However orderly your excursions or aimless, again and again amid the calmest,
stillest scenery you will be brought to a standstill hushed and awe-stricken before
phenomena wholly new to you. Boiling springs and huge deep pools of purest green
and azure water, thousands of them, are plashing and heaving in these high, cool
mountains as ifa fierce furnace fire were burning beneath each one of them; and a
hundred geysers, white torrents of boiling water and steam, like inverted
waterfalls, are ever and anon rushing up out of the hot, black underworld.
More on Yellowstone from our archives bere. Elsewhere in history: Today marks 100
years since the publication of the Zimmerman Telegram-the leak that belped pusb
tbe U .S. into World War I .
AUSTRALIA BY AIR
So far, our colleetion of aerial photos has been limited to the U.S., but John Muir's
description above of an "inverted waterfall" seemed like a good reason to share tbis
image from reader Chelsea .Attenborougb in Australia:
l've always been fascinated by aeria1 photos (to the point where I DOW bave adrone
to bugger around witb-lnsta. is@chelatt ifyou want to checlt tbem out ... ).
But your submfssion on F'ebruary 13 reminded me of a photo I took on my
iPhone in early 2015 as we were cnming in to land at Melbourne airport alter a trip
to the (Auslralian) Gold Coast.
See manymore aerial photos from read.ers he:re, and send us your own
via hello@theatlantic.oom (guid.elines here).
RE..ADER RE8P0Jj8E
The full context of the situation makes this all very disturbing to me. Hours before
the speech, Trump blamed "the generals" for the SEAL's death. The country
lost a highly trained special operator and a multi-million dollar aircraft while at the
same time killing civilians and collecting intelligence of questionable value. Yet
Trump considers questioning the efficacy of the mission to be unAmerican and
disrespectful to the SEAL's memory.
I worry what this means for my friends and those who I will lead. Are we simply
offerings to "American greatness," to be slaughtered on the altar in far-offlands so
our mothers and widows can be glorified on national television in this perverse
ritual in our civic religion? Are we to become the pious, saintly martyrs in Bannon's
crusade against the Mohammedans? Nobody in that room could do anything but
clap.
I think what happened was the full maturation of what Fallows calls "The
Chickenhawk Nation." We will continue to honor veterans with major league
baseball games at the Naval Academy and at the Superbowl, and give the DoD
(their contractors) an increase in the defense budget nearly the equal to the size of
the entire defense budget of Russia. Yet this administration will at best not
rethink American grand strategy in the War on Terror, and at worst, they will
undermine the mechanisms that have prevented major-power war for 70 years.
VERBS
In praise of cash
Cash might be grungy, unfashionable and
corruptible, but it is still a great public good,
important for rich and poor alike
Brett Scott
I recently found myself facing a vending machine in a quiet conidor at the Delft University
of Technology in the N etherlands. I was due to spealc at a conference called 'Reinvent
Money' but, suffering from jetlag and exhaustion, I was on a search for Coca-Cola. The
vending machine had a small digitai interface built by a Dutch company called Payter.
Printed on it was a sentence: 'Contactless payment only.' I touched down my bank card, but
rather than dispensing Coke, it beeped a message: 'Card invalid.' Not ali cards are created
equal, even if you can get one - and not everyone can.
In the economist's imagining of an idealised free market, rational individuals enter into
monetary-exchange contracts with each other for their mutuai benefit. One party- called
the 'buyer' - passes money tokens to another party- called the 'seller' - who in turn gives
real goods or services. So here I am, the tired individua! rationally seeking sugar. Tue
market is before me, fizzy drinks stacked on a shelf, presided aver by a vending machine
acting on behalf of the cola seller. It's an obedient mechanical apparatus that is supposed to
abide by a simple market contract: If you give money to my owner, I will give you a Coke. So
why won't this goddamn machine enter into this contract with me? This is market failure.
To understand this failure, we must first understand that we live with two modes of money.
'Cash' is the name given to our system of physical tokens that are manually passed on to
complete transactions. This first mode of money is public. We might call it 'state money'.
Indeed, we experience cash like a public utility that is 'just there'. Like other public utilities,
it might feel grungy and unsexy - with inefficiencies and avenues for corruption - but it is
in principle open-access. It can be passed directly by the richest of society to the poorest of
society, or vice versa.
Alongside this, we have a separate system of digital fiat money, in which our money tokens
take the form of 'data objects' recorded on a database by an authority- a bank- granted
power to 'keep score' of them for us. We referto this as our bank account and, rather than
physically transporting this money, we 'move' it by sending messages to our banks - for
example, via mobile phones or the internet - asking them to edit the data. Money 'moves'
to your landlord if your two respective banks can agree to edit your accounts, reducing your
score and increasing your landlord's score.
This second mode of money is essentially private, running off an infrastructure collectively
controlled by profit-seeking commerciai banks and a host of private payment intermediaries
- like Visa and Mastercard - that work with them. Tue data inscriptions in your bank
account are not state money. Rather, your bank account records private promises issued to
you by your bank, promising you access to state money should you wish. Having 'f:500' in
your Barclays account actually means 'Barclays PLC promises you access to f:500'. Tue ATM
network is the main way by which you convert these private bank promises - 'deposits' -
into the state cash that has been promised to you. Tue digital payments system, on the other
hand, is a way to transfer - or reassign - those bank promises between ourselves.
This dual system allows us the option to use private digital bank money when buying pizza
at a restaurant, but we can always resort to public state money drawn out of an ATM if the
proprietor's debit card system crashes. This choice seems fair. At different times, we might
find either form more or less useful. As you read this, though, architects of a 'cashless
society' are working to remove the option of resorting to state cash. They wish to completely
privatise the movement of money tokens, pushing banks and private-payments
intermediaries between all interactions of buyers and sellers.
The cashless society- which more accurately should be called the bank-payments society-
is often presented as an inevitability, an outcome of 'natural progress'. This claim is either
nalve or disingenuous. Any future cashless bank-payments society will be the outcome of a
deliberate war on cash waged by an alliance of three elite groups with deep interests in
seeing it emerge.
Tue first is the banking industry, which controls the core digitai fiat money system that our
public system of cash currently competes with. It irritates banks that people do indeed act
upon their right to convert their bank deposits into state money. It forces them to keep the
ATM network running. Tue cashless society, in their eyes, is a utopia where money cannot
leave - or even exist - outside the banking system, but can only be transferred from bank to
bank.
Tue second is the private payments industry - the likes of Mastercard - that profits from
running the infrastructure that services that bank system, streamlining the process via
which we transfer digita! money between bank accounts. They have self-serving reasons to
push for the removal of the cash option. Cash transactions are peer-to-peer, requiring no
intermediary, and are thus transactions that Visa cannot skim a cut off.
Tue third - perhaps ironically - is the state, and quasi-state entities such as centra! banks.
They are united with the financial industry in forcing everyone to buy into this privatised
bank-payments society for reasons of monitoring and contro!. Tue bank-money system
forms a panopticon that enables - in theory - ali transactions to be recorded, watched and
analysed, good or bad. Furthermore, cash's 'offline' nature means it cannot be remotely
altered or frozen. This hampers centra! banks in implementing 'innovative' monetary
policies, such as setting negative interest rates that slowly edit away bank deposits in order
to coerce people into spending.
Governments don't really mention that monetary policy agenda. It isn't catchy enough.
Rather, the key weapons used by the alliance are more classic shock-and-awe scare tactics.
Cash is used 1ry criminals! People buy drugs with cash! It's the black economy! It supports tax
evasioni Tue ability to present contro! as protection relies on constant calls to imagine an
external enemy, the terrorist or Mafiosi. These cries of moral panie are set in contrast to the
glossy smiling adverts about digitai payment. Tue emerging cashless society looms like a
futuristic sunrise, cleansing us of these dangerous filthy notes with rays of hygienic,
convenient, digita! salvation.
Tue psychological assault is working. Tue N etherlands - where I face my vending machine
- has become one key front in the war on cash. Here cash is becoming viewed like an illegal
alien on the run, increasingly excluded from the formai economy, drawing dirty looks from
shop assistants. Signs say 'Card only'. Who is Card? Card is a glamorous socialite,
welcomed into stores. Card is superior. Look at the bank adverts showcasing their
accessories for Card. Nobody is building accessories for Cash.
Tue frontlines, though, are now creeping to poorer countries. India's recent so-called
'demonetisation' was a brutal overnight retraction of rupee notes by the prime minister
N arendra Modi to bring discipline to the 'black economy'. It was an exercise that
necessitated choking the poorest Indians, who depend on cash and who often lack access to
bank accounts. Originally cast in popular terms as an attempt to stem corruption, the
message was later ironically altered to cast cashlessness as a way to create economie
progress for India's poor.
This message is given humanitarian credentials by the UN-based Better Than Cash Alliance,
which promotes 'the shift from cash to digitai payments to reduce poverty and drive
inclusive growth', and which counts Visa, Mastercard and Citi Foundation as key partners.
Tue Modi action was also preceded by the initiation of the Cashless Catalyst programme,
'an alliance between the Govemment of India and USAID, to expand digitai payments in
India', backed by a panoply of digitai payments companies. These officiai alliances of states,
corporations and public academics are impressive. In India, well-heeled urban elites who
applauded Modi's actions from the sidelines can safely point to Rogoff's Financial Times-
nominated book of the year to justify it.
Rogoff, though, has appeared spooked, writing articles stating that he was advocating
removing cash only from advanced economies with advanced banking systems. Oh damn.
Highly influential and politically powerful Harvard economist releases a global anti-cash
book and is concemed when poorer nations take him seriously?
I have no special love of cash. I don't really care for nostalgie reveries on the beautiful
aesthetics of the banknote, or its texture and cultura! importance within a market system,
though I understand this is important to many. I also don't really care about the pedantic
history of cash, whether it was the Tang or Song dynasty in China who first issued notes.
What I care about is the unaccountable callousness of this vending machine, the one that
has just blocked me from engaging in free trade.
Old vending machines didn't do this. They had a little slot for coins, one that allowed even a
ragged beggar to convert his tiny incarne into sustenance. Look closely at the machine. It's
actually two machines. The Payter device fused into its body does not work for the cola
seller. It works for payments corporations. You see, the cola seller has one bank account, but
there are many people with many accounts at different banks approaching the vending
machine. Those banks need to identify which of their account holders wishes to transfer
how much money to which account at which other bank. The device is there to deliver my
card information into the transmission lines of the card payments networks, where it will be
- in theory - routed to facilitate the transfer of money tokens from my account into the
seller's account, fora small fee.
This is no longer a deal between me and the seller. I am now dealing with a complex of
unknown third parties, profit-seeking money-passers who stand between us to act as
facilitators of the money flow, but also as potential gatekeepers. Ifa gatekeeper doesn't want
to do business with me, I can't do business with the seller. They have the ability to jam,
monitor or piace conditions upon that glorious core ritual of capitalism - the transfer of
money for the transfer of goods. This innocuous device exudes mechanical indifference,
reporting only to invisible bosses far away, running invisible algorithms in invisible black
boxes that don't like me.
Ifwe are going to referto bank payments as 'cashless', we should then referto cash
payments as 'bankless'. Because that's what cash is, and right now it is the only thing
standing between us and a completely privatised money system.
As in the case of previous privatisations, we'll hear suited TV pundits arguing that if the
digitai payments companies don't work for people they will be outcompeted by better
private systems. Yeah right. When did you last see a credible competitor to the likes of
Mastercard and Visa? They preside aver huge network systems, subject to intense network
effects. It's in no shopkeeper's interest to use a competitor to Visa when it's so utterly
dominant already.
The most we can hope for, then, is a benign oligopoly of payments corporations, heavily
exposed to the geopolitica! aspirations of the states they reside within. The Chinese state
encouraged the creation of China UnionPay precisely because they don't want US payment
megacorps installing themselves as gatekeepers into transactions made by Chinese citizens.
Oh yes, I can use scare tactics too. I can point out that removing cash takes us one step
closer to potentially realising the most powerful and automated state-corporate financial
contro! complex the world has ever seen. Very few people either seem to understand this, or
care. Like a slow-boiled frog, we don't seem to notice the process of locking ourselves into
daily dependence on an alienating, unaccountable infrastructure that makes us increasingly
subservient to bureaucratic processes we cannot see.
Maybe I need to turn up the shock-and-awe. Maybe I can drum up an argument about how,
in a cashless society, terrorists could target the electrical grid to bring entire regional
economies to a halt.
No. My main defence of cash will be simple and intuitive. As unsexy and analogue as cash
is, it is resilient. It is easy to use. It requires little fancy infrastructure. It is not subject to
arbitrary algorithmic glitches from incompetent programmers. And, yes, it leaves no data
trail that will be used to project the aspirations and neuroses of faceless technocrats and
business analysts into my daily existence. It comes with criminals, but hey, it's good old
friendly normai capitalism rather than predictive Minority Report surveillance-capitalism.
And ask yourself this: do you really want to live in the latter society without the ability to buy
drugs? Believe me, you'll need something to dull the existential pain.
The
Economist Espresso
Today's agenda
80
18 to 24
~~~ 60
~
40
25to34 /
~
cw:z
:;P
- - - - - --
~ 35and ~
20
lllllliilliiiililliiiliiilllilliiliili o
2013 14 15 16
Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fu.nd, said that its
founder, Ray Dallo, will step down as co-chief executive in Aprii. He will
remain co-chief investment officer of the $i6obn finn, which is known for
its unusual corporate culture, dubbed "radical truth and radical
transparency". Jon Rubinstein, the other co-CEO, will leave Bridgewater but
serve as an adviser.
Syrian govemment forces, backed by Russia, have for the second time
retaken the areas surrounding Palmyra from Islamic State. Govemment
forces had captured the ancient city, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, from
the jihadist group in March, but lost it again in December. Separately, a UN
commission said both Syrian and rebel forces committed war
crim.es during last year's battle for Aleppo.
A Norwegian appeals court ruled that authorities had not violated the rights
of Anders Behring Breivik, a right-wing extremist who killed 77 people in
2011, by keeping him in near-isolation. The verdict overtumed a lower-court
ruling that he was held in a "completely locked world" in violation of a ban on
"inhuman or degrading treatment" under the European Convention on Human
Rights.
Friday March 3rd
Today's agenda
I Stock in trade
London Stock Exchange Group, share price, f.
35
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- 20
1'
J F MA M J J A S O N O J FM
2016 2017
Source: Thomson Reuters
I Vendor diagram
Trade agreements, March 2017
Australia
Canada Brunei
Chile
Mexico
r Japan
Malaysia
United States New Zealand
Peru Singapore Cambodia
Vietnam India
Laos
Hong Kong China Myanmar
Papua New Indonesia
Guinea Phi lippi nes
Russia
South Korea
Taiwan Thailand
FTAAP-21
Source: "The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific
Integration", by P.A. Petri, M.G. Plummer, F. Zhai
Malaysia said it will deport a North Korean man held in connection with
the assassinati.on of the half-brother of North Korea's leader, as there was
insufficient evidence to charge him. South Korean intelligence believes the
murder-by chemical weapon-was arranged by agents from the North. The
only suspects charged so far are two women, from Indonesia and Vietnam.
"You're talking about citizens from countries, like Poland, with a major diaspora"
in the United States, Claude Moraes, the British lawmaker who leads the
Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs in the European
Parliament, said in a telephone interview on Friday. ''You're really seeing
frustration and anger, and without any timetable, this is becoming increasingly
seen as second-class treatment."
The European Parliament also warned that it could take the further step of
bringing the European Commission to court if it continues not to stand up to
Washington.
"Only when the U.S. fully gets that the European Commission is going to act are we
going to get any kind oftimetable from the United States," Mr. Moraes said. "At the
moment, the U.S. just believes the commission is not going to act but stick with the
pragmatic argument that doing so would create damage that's just too great."
"It's a question of using what options are open to us," he said, explaining the
possible resort to litigation.
In the vote on Thursday, the Parliament gave the European Commission two
months to take legai measures to impose visas for American travelers to the
European Union unless the Americans offered reciprocity to all citizens from the
bloc.
The Parliament's measure was approved in a show ofhands and was not expected
to worsen the standoff with the United States. But in the event that the court in
Luxembourg were to rule in favor of Parliament, the commission might be forced
to impose visa requirements on Americans.
The Trump administration, finding itself in a tit-for-tat battle over access, would
then almost certainly do the same for travelers from the European Union.
In 2014, the European Commission was notified that the United States and four
other countries - Australia, Brunei, Canada and Japan - were failing to provide
reciprocai, visa-free travel to citizens of some European Union countries.
Australia, Brunei and Japan have resolved differences with the European Union,
and an agreement with Canada is expected to take effect in December for all
citizens of Bulgaria and Romania, according to a statement from the European
Parliament.
Margaritis Schinas, the chief spokesman for the commission, appeared to tamp
down any expectations that it would impose visa requirements on Americans
within two months, as outlined in the Parliament resolution. Instead, he said he
advocated "continued engagement and patient diplomatic contacts" with
Washington.
The commission will issue a progress report on discussions with the United States,
he added, but not before the end of June.
•••
Fact • Shaa:.
Politlcs Check:
Trump's
First Address to Congress
R.eporten from.1be New Yotk Timea 1ict d1ecbd Presidmt Trump's fini
addms 1D Congress. Watdi the yid.eo and see bow we ana!rn:d 1he s.peeçh in
1'l!A) time. and check out our fil.et cbocQ oftbe Democrats' nispome. FEB. 28,
2017
But eme l'ClllQ1I. for such a large uptick was that crime had becn falling fora pnmlticm. In
1991, the F.B.I. eatimated tbat tbe.re W<ft 24,703 munlera.
- Charlle Savage
While subeidiea are available to people with 1ow and modaace incomes, people who do Dat
qualify for financial asaistance must bear the full cosl
- Robert Pear
@milies of people killed by
..,.....1;...documented immigrants have been
~t:>amacare is collapsing."
Thla la an exageratlon.
Pftlmiums for health immance und« the Affordable Care Act inml89ed Sllbstantially thia
year. Deductibles are oftenhigb. Tbemmiberofinsurance companies offering coverage has
s1mmk in many statai. Big insunml, lolling :money in 1he public !Dlllblphu:es, bave cm1ailed
thoir pmticipation.
But millions ofpeople with modcst inCOIDCll bave obtained covc:rage, wilh federai suhsidies
tbat ndw:e thoir pmmiums and oul-of-pocbt costs. Republli:an eft'orbi to mpeal the bl!lllth
c:are law bave Gnl8ied greafCll' unemtainty, whicli 1hnlalals to destabiliz.e the llllllb1» evm
moni.
- Robert Pear
Trulh.
ll's grounded in facts.
Oiscover it wi th us.
Get 60% off for one year.
1113/H.!f+Mf
è~r ~r\u !Jork èimrs
- C<lln Dlckerson
~ver
43 million Americans are on food
~~-... mps."
- Dana Goldstein
- Comi Davenport
Trulh.
ll's grounded in lads.
Discover it with us.
Get 60% off for one year.
11HH'"i'!.!ffi
~t ~t\U !Jork ièimts
~i raety-four
million Americans are out
~.....the labor farce."
lllis is millaadins.
That ia roughly the number of.Americam older t1um 15 wllo do not bsw jobs. But it include•
hish school ami. college atudarts, people wilh disabilitk:s, stay-at-home psrenll and mi1lions
of retirees. Tbc numbet ofAmericam who would like to work but can't find jobs ia much
lllllllller. 'l'ha BllR!llll ofl..abor Statistiai estimate& that abaut 7.6 million people weni
unemployed in 18DWll)'.
- Binyamin Appelbaum
~e've defended the borders of other
...,.__.,.... jons, while leaving our own borders
open far anyone to cross."
~e
are removing gang members, drug
~~lers and criminals. rr
Mr. Tnunp did indeed aign a bili rolling badt a ~on dud would bave im:vented coa1
miDiq çompanies from polluting streem5. But time ia no evidczu:e that the rule thmlùmcd a
IÌgllificmt lllJIDber of coa1 miningjoba, or that rolling it back will create new onea.
l'ha-e ue only about 70,000 dircct coal miningjobs m thc Uniteci States. But most
economista bave cam:luded tllat the decline ia due to iDcreased medianiation in dJe mining
illdualry ami a mamt llhii\ by el.ectric: utilities away fiom coa18lld toward Dalmal gas, which
i1 che.aper. No cn:da"ble ltwliea hm: ahown dud roll.in& back major regulatiOll8 on coal
pollution. wil1 coD1ribute to amajor increese in coel miningjoba.
- Coral Davenport
~forcing immigration laws will raise
~-ges.
MQbe a litlle.
Economists 11e decply dividcd abolll tbc etrect of immigratiOD OD thc wapa of nativc-bom
woibrs. So.me see evidem:e tbat ill.creued competition lw modcstly reduccd die waps for
10111e kiDda ofwotk, putiçululy low-ekillecl labor. But lhe e1lèctB are Jdatively llDlll-
pcrbapa a few pen:eutage pointa- and the ove:rall effect on the cccmom.y ia moat libly
po1ieive.
- Binyamin Appelbeum
Trulh.
ll's grounded in facts.
Discover it with us.
Get 60% off for one year.
IH'hi.!i!!.141
~ave
directed several federai
~~ncies to fight crime and dismantle
riminal cartels that have spread
across our nation."
- Charlie Sevege
More on NYTimes.com
Franaf's next ravalutiori
The vote that could wreck the European Union
W7ly the Fn!ndl. presidential electiDn wt11 ~ amseqwmc.esfiu beyond its barders
IT HAS been many years since France lallt had a revolution, ot even a seriom attempt at
reform. Stignalion, both political and economie, has been the hallmark of a country where
llttle has changed for decade&, even as power has 1'01.Qted between the establ!shed parti.es of
left and rlght.
unti! now. Th1s year's presldential. election, the most exdtlng ln llving m.emory, promlses an
upheaval. The Socialistand Republican parties, wlùch bave held power sinc::e the founding of
the Pifth Republic in 1958, could be eliminated in the tim round of a presidential ballot on
Aprii .23J:d. French voiers may fac:e a cholce bet.ween two .!nswient candldates: Marlne Le Pen,
the chatlsmatlc leader of the National Front. and Ellllllalluel Maaon, the upswt leader of a
liberal movement, Bn Marche! (On 1he Mowl), whìch be l'ounded onlylast year.
The implieations of these insurgencies are hard to exaggerate. They are the clearest example
yet of a global trend: that the old divide between left and right is growing less important than
a new one between open and closed. The resulting realignment will bave reverberations far
beyond France's borders. It could revitalise the European Union, or wreck it.
Les misérables
The revolution's proximate cause is voters' fury at the uselessness and self-dealing of their
ruling class. The Socialist president, François Hollande, is so unpopular that he is not
running for re-election. The established opposition, the centre-right Republiean party, saw its
chances sink on March 1st when its standard-bearer, François Fillon, revealed that he was
being formally investigated for paying his wife and children nearly €1m ($1.05m) of publie
money for allegedly fake jobs. Mr Fillon did not withdraw from the race, despite having
promised to do so. But his chances of winning are dramatieally weakened.
Further fuelling voters' anger is their anguish at the state of France (see article
(http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21717824 -new-social-faul tline-france-has-
resha ped-countrys-poli ties-and-sidelined-i ts-main) ). One poll last year found that French
people are the most pessimistie on Earth, with 81% grumbling that the world is getting worse
and only 3% saying that it is getting better. Much of that gloom is economie. France's
economy has long been sluggish; its vast state, whieh absorbs 57% of GDP, has sapped the
country's vitality. A quarter of French youths are unemployed. Of those who bave jobs, few
can find permanent ones of the sort their parents enjoyed. In the face of high taxes and heavy
regulation those with entrepreneurial vim bave long headed abroad, often to London. But the
malaise goes well beyond stagnant living standards. Repeated terrorist attacks bave jangled
nerves, forced citizens to live under a state of emergency and exposed deep cultura! rifts in
the country with Europe's largest Muslim community.
Many of these problems bave built up over decades, but neither the left nor the right has been
able to getto grips with them. France's last serious attempt at ambitious economie reform, an
overhaul of pensions and social security, was in the mid-199os under PresidentJacques
Chirac. It collapsed in the face of massive strikes. Since then, few bave even tried. Nieolas
Sarkozy talked a big game, but his reform agenda was felled by the financial crisis of 2007-08.
Mr Hollande had a disastrous start, introducing a 75% top tax rate. He was then too unpopular
to get much done. After decades of stasis, it is hardly surprising that French voters want to
throw the bums out.
Both Mr Macron and Ms Le Pen tap into that frustration. But they offer radieally different
diagnoses ofwhat ails France and radieally different remedies. Ms Le Pen blames outside
forces and promises to protect voters with a combination of more barriers and greater socia!
welfare. She has effectively distanced herself from her party's anti-Semitic past (even evicting
her father from the party he founded), but she appeals to those who want to shut out the rest
of the world. She decries globalisation as a threat to French jobs and Islamists as fomenters of
terror who make it perilous to wear a short skirt in public. The EU is "an anti-democratic
monster". She vows to dose radical mosques, stanch the flow of immigrants to a trickle,
obstruct foreign trade, swap the euro fora resurrected French frane and calla referendum on
leaving the EU.
Mr Macron's instincts are the apposite. He thinks that more openness would make France
stronger. He is staunchly pro-trade, pro-competition, pro-immigration and pro-EU. He
embraces cultura! change and technological disruption. He thinks the way to get more French
people working is to reduce cumbersome labour protections, not add to them. Though he has
long been short on precise policies (he was due to publish a manifesto as The Economist went
to press), Mr Macron is pitching himself as the pro-globalisation revolutionary.
Look carefully, and neither insurgent is a convincing outsider. Ms Le Pen has spent her life in
politics; her success has been to make a hitherto extremist party socially acceptable. Mr
Macron was Mr Hollande's economy minister. His liberalising programme will probably be
less bold than that of the beleaguered Mr Fillon, who has promised to trim the state payroll by
500,000 workers and slash the labour code. Both revolutionaries would bave difficulty
enacting their agendas. Even if she were to prevail, Ms Le Pen's party would not win a
majority in the national assembly. Mr Macron barely has a party.
Nonetheless, they represent a repudiation of the status quo. A victory for Mr Macron would
be evidence that liberalism still appeals to Europeans. A victory for Ms Le Pen would make
France poorer, more insular and nastier. If she pulls France out of the euro, it would trigger a
financial crisis and doom a union that, for all its flaws, has promoted peace and prosperity in
Europe for six decades. Vladimir Putin would love that. It is perhaps no coincidence that Ms
Le Pen's party has received a hefty loan from a Russian bank and Mr Macron's organisation
has suffered more than 4,000 hacking attacks.
With just over two months to go, it seems Ms Le Penis unlikely to clinch the presidency. Polls
show her winning the first round but losing the run-off. But in this extraordinary election,
anything could happen. France has shaken the world before. It could do so again.
This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline "France's next revolution"
A tale of two mayors
IT IS the best and worst oftimes for the Five Star Movement (M5S), the populist group that is
Italy's main opposition. On the bright side, Matteo Renzi, the fonner prime minister, resigned on
February 19th as leader ofthe Democratic Party (PD), the dominant party in government and the
M5S 's chief rival. Mr Renzi will probably regain contro! of the PD, but bis move highlighted a
split between bis supporters and critics, some ofwhom defected on February 28th to a new
radical-left parliarnentary group. Small wonder the MSS and PD are nearly even in the polls.
But ifthe MSS's popularity is clear, its competence is not. The party's most senior governing
officials are two mayors elected last June, Vrrginia Raggi in Rome (pictured at left), Italy's
biggest city, and Chiara Appendino in Turin (pictured at right), its fourth-biggest. Their
performances since could scarcely be more dissimilar.
On February 7th Ms Raggi learned that prosecutors had fonnally placed ber under investigation
for a second time. The mayor, who denies wrongdoing, risks indictment for falsifying a
document and abuse of her office. Her counterpart in Turin, according to a survey published in
January by Il Sole-24 Ore, a financial daily, has become Italy's most popular big-city mayor. Ms
Appendino 's approva! rate arnong the citizens of Turin was 62%, an increase of seven percentage
points since her election.
Economist.com
The two women are among the more reassuring faces of a movement that is led by a demagogie
erstwhile comedian, Beppe Grillo. Ms Raggi is a lawyer; Ms Appendino a businesswoman. The
disparities in their records in office are partly caused by differences between the cities they
govem. Turin, in the shadow of the Alps, is elegant but unshowy, imbued with a culture of
reserve and compromise. It is said to have more Ferraris per head than any other Italian city, but
one never sees them. The bureaucracy bequeathed to Ms Appendino by the previous mayor, a
member ofthe PD, has a progressive outlook and a reputation for efficiency.
Rome, on the other hand, for all its ravishing beauty, is corrupt, chaotic and cynical. Ms Raggi
inherited a city hall notorious for sleaze that had been under central-govemment administration
because of an investigation into links between local-authority executives and organised crime.
Severa! officials were behind bars.
Unsurprisingly, Ms Raggi's biggest problems have involved personnel. The mayor put her trust
in officials who are now in jail or under investigation. The latest twist concems a city hall
functionary whom Ms Raggi promoted, almost tripling his salary. He was found to have taken
out three life-insurance policies worth €41,000 ($43,150), and to have made the future mayor
their beneficiary. Why remains unclear. Ms Raggi says she knew nothing of the transactions and
could only have profited if the policyholder had died. Prosecutors, who were already
investigating the mayor over another appointment, appeared to take her word. But they have
since opened a second investigation into alleged irregularities in the policyholder's promotion.
Ms Raggi is a suspect.
Ms Appendino chose her departmental chiefs before her election. She sidelined her most
dangerous rival within the local M5S and works in apparent harmony with a right-hand man
inherited from the previous administration. Maurizio Molinari, editor of La Stampa, a Turin-
based daily, offers two reasons for her popularity. "She keeps her distance from the M5S," he
says. "People don't feel they're being govemed by [Mr Grillo's followers], but by Ms
Appendino." And, he adds, the mayor is "very Torinese: low-profile".
Her achievements, however, have also been modest. And apart from some symbolically radical
gestures (including a proposal for vegan school lunches), what she has done has cost her support
among M5S activists and working-class voters, who backed her because they felt the PD had
grown too close to the city's elite. The mayor has sidestepped her movement's commitment to
blocking a high-speed rail link through the Alps, explaining that she is powerless to stop it. And
she has balked at taking the management of the local water consortium out of private hands.
This is almost treasonable for the M5S. Public ownership ofwater is one ofthe five "star" issues
that give the movement its name. "The M5S has always been on our side," complains
Mariangela Rosolen, a veteran campaigner for de-privatising the locai water consortium. Ms
Rosolen says activists are considering a demonstration against Ms Appendino. That could mark a
turning point in her fortunes. But for her admirers, it would be evidence of her ability to stick
shrewdly to a middle path that might one day lead her to national office.
Her party's chances of giving her that opportunity look ever better. Since Mr Renzi's government
fell in December, the right has failed to unite, while the left has squabbled ruinously. Matteo
Salvini, leader ofthe nationalist Northem League, has wrenched his party rightwards, turning it
into an Italian reflection ofMarine Le Pen's National Front. That makes it harder to ally with
Silvio Berlusconi's centre-right Forza Italia party. Meanwhile, the mutiny in the PD may leave it
unable to win a generai election. Mr Renzi complained that the mutineers were "giving Mr Grillo
a nice present". That is hard to dispute.
This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition under the headline ''A tale of two mayors"
aeon
Well, that was a short ride. Not long ago, one of the world's leading historians, Lynn Hunt,
stated with confidence in Writing History in the Global Era (2014) that a more global
approach to the past would do for our age what national history did in the heyday of nation-
building: it would, as Jean-Jacques Rousseau had said was necessary of the nation-builders,
remake people from the inside out. Global history would produce tolerant and
cosmopolitan global citizens. It rendered the past a mirror on our future border-crossing
selves - not unlike Barack Obama, the son of a Kenyan father and white American mother,
raised in Indonesia and educated in the Ivy League, who became the passing figure of our
fading dreams of meritocracy without walls.
Tue mild-mannered German historian Jiirgen Osterhammel might serve as an example of
that global tum. When his book The Transformation of the World: A Global History of the 19th
Century (2014) carne out in English, one reviewer baptised him the new Femand Braudel. It
was already a sensation in Germany. One day, Osterhammel's office phone at the University
of Konstanz rang. On the other end of the line was the country' s chancellor, Angela Merkel.
'You don't check your SMSs,' she scolded lightly. At the time, Merkel was on the mend from
a broken pelvis and the politica! fallout of the Eurocrisis. While recovering, she' d read
Osterhammel's 1,200-page book for therapy. She was calling to invite the author to ber
60th-birthday party to lecture her guests about time and global perspectives. Obsessed with
the rise of China and the consequences of digitalisation, she had turned to the sage of the
moment: the global historian.
It's hard to imagine Osterhammel getting invited to the party now. In our fevered present of
Nation-X First, of resurgent ethno-nationalism, what's the point of recovering global pasts?
Merkel, daughter of the East, might be the improbable last voice of Atlantic Charter
internationalism. Two years after her 60th birthday, the vision of an integrated future and
spreading tolerance is beating a hasty retreat.
What is to become of this approach to the past, one that a short time ago promised to re-
image a vintage discipline? What would global narratives look like in the age of an anti-
global backlash? Does the rise of 'America First', 'China First', 'India First' and 'Russia First'
mean that the dreams and work of globe-narrating historians were just a bender, a neo-
liberal joyride?
U ntil very recently, the practice of modern history centred on, and was dominated by, the
nation state. Most history was the history of the nation. If you wander through the history
and biography aisles of either brick-and-mortar or virtual bookstores, the characters and
heroes of patriotism dominate. In the United States, authors such as Walter Isaacson, David
McCullough and Doris Keams Goodwin bave helped to give millions of readers their
understanding of the past and the present. Inevitably, they wrote page-turning profiles of
heroic nation-builders. Every nation cherishes its national history, and every country has a
cadre of flame-keepers.
Then, along carne globalisation and the shake-up of old, bordered imaginations. Historians
quickly responded to the fall of the Berlin Wall, the crumbling protective ramparts of
national capitalism, the boom in container shipping, and the rise of the cosmopolis. New
scales and new concepts carne to life. Europe's Schengen Agreement, inked in 1985, the
North American Free Trade Agreement in 1993, and the founding of the World Trade
Organization in 1995, heralded new levels of international fusion. These now-imperilled
treaties promised a borderless world. 'Tue world is being flattened,' Thomas Friedman's
popular manifesto of globalisation, The World Is Flat (2005), concluded. 'I didn't start it and
you can't stop it,' Friedman wrote in an open letter to his daughter, 'except at great cast to
human development and your own future.'
As the only game in town, globalisation produced a new popular genre that might be called
patriotic globalism. Samantha Power's A Problem from Hell: America and the Age of Genocide
(2002), Philip Gourevitch's We Wish to Inform You Ihat Tomorrow We Will Be Killed with Our
Families (1998), and books by Adam Hochschild all gave us horrible crises with would-be
heroes fashioned, not as nation-builders, but as humanitarian worldmakers. There was also
a surge of stories about a shared, planetary future, with a common, carbon-addicted past.
Tue Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit in 1992 tumed sustainability into a border-busting
buzzword and fuelled environmental history. Two decades earlier, Alfred Crosby could not
find a publisher who wanted his book Ihe Columbian Exchange (1972), which charted the
ecological fallout of the integration of the New World biome into the Eurasian system. Now,
his book is Biblical.
After years of falling enrolments, declining majors and a dispiriting job market for history
PhDs, many saw 'global history' as an elixir, a way to retum to public relevance.
Globalisation had become all the rage. Historians, Hunt wrote in 2014, were stepping up
with narratives of interconnection and integration. Jared Diamond's works, synthesising
13,000 years of global history, populated airport newsstands. To get middle- and high-
school students jazzed up about history on a cosmological scale - '13.8 Billion Years of
History. Free. Online. Awesome' - Bill Gates unveiled his Big History Project. More recently,
Sven Beckert's Empire of Cotton: A Global History (2014) swept prizes and hit No 1 on
Amazon's bestseller ranks under the 'Fashion and Textile' category.
To understand what global history was, it helps to understand what it was supposed to
eclipse. It used to be that, in the US, history departments had their cores in American
and/or European fields; in Canada, Australia and Britain, the nuclei were also national.
History meant the history of the nation, its peoples and their origins. When social and
cultura! history carne along, it changed the subject from presidents or prime ministers to
Hollywood or garment workers. But the framework remained mostly national; historians
stili wrote books about the making of the English working class, or the conversion of
peasants into French citizens. There might be a smattering of East Asian or Latin American
historians in the mix. Often, they were cordoned into regional studies units, or lumped - as
in my home department at Princeton - as 'non-Western historians', defined by their
fundamental difference, there to embellish but not challenge the national canon. Tue major
exception was the study of migrations and diasporas, coerced or free. But even those fields
tended to sit alongside the national behemoths; there was the American history survey (or
French, or British), and then the story of African-Americans.
True, there has long been something called 'world history'. Tue standard world history
course was a tour of the civilisations that preceded or abutted 'Western Civilisation'. Tue
Western Civ industry dated to the early years of the 20th century. Back then, faced with
creeping specialisation, historians got summoned to offer a structured base for the national
collegian-citizen. With household names such as Arnold Toynbee and Will and Ariel Durant
it boomed, like the rest of American industry, in the golden age of NATO, Sputnik and
federal spending. One of its greatest figures was the University of Chicago historian William
H McNeill, author of the stand-by History of Western Civilisation: A Handbook (1949). As
Western Civ became something of a relic in the 1960s, 'world history' or 'world civilisations'
took its piace to explain the Triumph of the West and, by extension, the Decline of the Rest.
McNeill's epic 1he Rise of the West (1963) was the high-standard bearer for this kind of
encompassing view
<http://www.conspiracyschool.com/sites/default/files/journal_articles/Allerydyce%20-
%20Rise%20and%20Fall%20of%20the%20Western%20Civilization%20Course _O.pdf> of
the planetary past composed of civilisational blocs competing for global supremacy. This
was not global history, though many subsequent global historians cut their teeth studying
other civilisations. Rather, it was a story that brought in the Rest to help explain the West.
Tue notion of intractable divides, however, seemed increasingly at odds with the high-def,
global-fusing present; it mobilised a new generation of historians to go beyond stories of our
walled-off, essential selves. Their global history project would reveal connections across
societies instead of cohesions within them. Tue vintage comparative, civilisational
framework gave way to contacts and linkages. Connection was in; networks were hot.
Global history would show the latticework of exchanges and encounters - from the Silk
Road of 1300 to turbo-charged supply chains of 2000.
More than anyone, Sanjay Subrahmanyam, now at the University of California, Los Angeles,
made the coinage of 'connected histories <https://www.jstor.org/stable/312798?
seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents> 'bis own. As determined to dethrone the myth of Indian
civilisation (whose Hindutva ideology is dear to the tribalism of India's Right-wing
Bharatiya Janata Party) as he is to dispel the idea of a Great European Trajectory (from
Athens to the Enlightenment, a march dear to European tribalists), the son of urbane Delhi
turned encounters and contacts with many origin points and as many meanings into a
global bricolage that antedated our multicultural makeups. Through travel, discovery,
translation and the flow of books, silver and opium - 'histories that moved' as
Subrahmanyam called them in his inaugura! lecture
<http://books.openedition.org/cdf/3606> at the Collège de France in 2013 - he evoked a
world laced together long before the rise of the West.
Global history's other signature was its emphasis on dependence between societies. If
globalisation opened the borders between Westerners and Resterners, global historians
were especially interested not just in the contacts, but in the ways in which countries and
regions contoured each other. Tue rise of the West looked more and more not just like a
response to the Rest, but dependent on it. Even the industria! revolution and Europe's great
leap forward in the 19th century, the one thing that seemed to separate Europe from others,
carne under the global historian's macroscope. In The Great Divergence: China, Europe, and
the Making of the Modem World Economy (2000), Kenneth Pomeranz demolished the view of
Europeans as the authors of their own miraculous rise. He revealed how much European
enterprise and accumulation shared with China. How Europe's break from the common,
Eurasian-Malthusian straightjacket began not with the region's internal uniqueness, but
with access to and conquest of what Adam Smith called the wastelands of the Americas. In
the same vein, global historians demonstrated how much insurance, banking and shipping
startups owed to the African slave trade. Tue European miracle was, in short, a global
harvest.
Global history did not mean telling the story of everything in the world. What was global
was not the object of study, but the emphasis on connections, scale and, most of all,
integration. Even the nations and civilisations were more the products and less the
producers of global interactions. Some scholars went all-out. 'If you are not doing an
explicitly transnational, international or global project, you now have to explain why you are
not,' said <http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/armitage/files/s0165115312000551a.pdf?
m=1360043141> the Harvard historian David Armitage in 2012. 'Tue hegemony of national
historiography,' he pronounced, 'is over.'
No sooner did historians catch the globalisation wave with fancy new courses, magazines,
textbooks and attention, than the wave seemed to collapse. Tue story changed. A powerful
politica! movement arose against 'globalism'. White-supremacists and Vladimir Putin fans
from the Traditionalist Worker Party in the US proclaim as their slogan that 'Globalism is
the poison, nationalism is the antidote.' Donald Trump put it only a bit more mildly.
'Americanism, not globalism, will be our credo,' he thundered to cheering Republicans in
his convention speech in July 2016. On the day after the US inaugurated Trump, the French
presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen gave an incendiary speech at a summit in Germany,
calling 2017 the year of the great awakening of the nationalist Right. 'We are living through
the end of one world,' she proclaimed, 'and the birth of another.'
Suddenly, global historians seemed out of step with their times. If the backlash was a wake-
up call for the globalisers, it also revealed some problems for the global chroniclers.
All narratives are selective, shaped as much by what they exclude as what they include.
Despite the mantras of integration and the inclusion on the planetary scale, global history
carne with its own segregation - starting with language. Historians working across borders
merged their mode of communication in ways that created new walls; in the search for
academic cohesion, English became Globish. Global history would not be possible without
the globalisation of the English language. In a recent workshop in Tokyo, I marvelled as
Italians, Chine se and Japanese historians swapped ideas and sake in a lingua franca. But this
kind of flatness can mask a new linguistic hierarchy. It is one of the paradoxes of global
history that the drive to overcome Eurocentrism contributed to the Anglicising of
intellectual lives around the world. As English became Globish, there was less incentive to
learn foreign languages - the indispensable key to bridging ourselves and others.
According to a 2015 report
<https://www.mla.org/content/download/31180/1452509/EMB_enrllmnts_nonEngl_201
3.pdf> by the Modem Languages Association, the US foreign-language head count at
universities peaked in 2009, and has been declining ever since.
What are we to make of all this? First, the high hopes for cosmopolitan narratives about
'encounters' between Westerners and Resterners led to some pretty one-way exchanges
about the shape of the global. It is hard not to conclude that global history is another
Anglospheric invention to integrate the Other into a cosmopolitan narrative on our terms, in
our tongues. Sort of like the wider world economy.
Secondly, to some extent, global history sounds like history fit for the now-defunct Clinton
Global Initiative, a shiny, high-profile endeavour emphasising borderless, do-good
storytelling about our cosmopolitan commonness, global history to give globalisation a
human face. It privileged motion over piace, histoires qui bougent (stories that move) over
tales of those who got left behind, narratives about others for the selves who felt some
connection - of shared self-interest or empathy - between far-flung neighbours of the
global cosmopolis.
Global history preferred a scale that reflected its cosmopolitan self-yearnings. It also
implicitly created what the sociologist Arlie Russell Hochschild in Strangers in 1heir Own
Land (2016) called 'empathy walls' between globe-trotting liberals and locally rooted
provincials. Going global often meant losing contact with - to borrow another of her bons
mots - 'deep stories' of resentment about loss of and threat to locai attachments. Tue older
patriotic narratives had tethered people to a sense of bounded unity. Tue new,
cosmopolitan, global narratives crossed those boundaries. But they dissolved the
heartlanders' ties to a sense of piace in the world. In a politica! climate dominated by railing
against Leviathan government, big banks, mega-treaties with inscrutable acronyms such as
TPP, and distant Eurocrats, the pretentious drive to replace deep stories of near-mourning
with global stories of distant connection was bound to face its limits. In the scramble to
make Others part of our stories, we inadvertently created a new swath of strangers at home.
Global history faces two seemingly opposite challenges for an inter-dependent, over-
heating planet. If we are going to muster meaningful narratives about the togetherness of
strangers near and far, we are going to have to be more global and get more serious about
engaging other languages and other ways of telling history. Historians and their reader-
citizens are also going to have to re-signify the piace of locai attachments and meanings.
Going deeper into the stories of Others afar and Strangers at home means dispensing with
the idea that global integration was like an electric circuit, bringing light to the connected.
Becoming inter-dependent is not just messier than drawing a wiring diagram. It means
reckoning with dimensions of networks and circuits that global historians - and possibly all
narratives of cosmopolitan convergence - leave out of the story: lighting up corners of the
earth leaves others in the dark. Tue story of the globalists illuminates some at the expense
of others, the left behind, the ones who cannot move, and those who become immobilised
because the light no longer shines on them.
To gain better insights into the dynamics and resistances to integration, to give as much
airtime to separation, disintegration and fragility as we do to connection, integration and
convergence, we are going to have to get rid of flat-Earth narratives and ideas of global
predestination once and forali. We are going to have to account for how more
interdependence can yield more conflict, how for instance, despite growing trade and
student exchanges between China and Japan, Beijing can announce (as it did in 2014) two
new national holidays to commemorate the victims of Japanese aggression from 1937 to
1945.
Connection, mobility, fusion, oneness: we put our stock in the magnetism of the market and
the empathetic power of a cosmopolitan spirit that appeared to take hold of the upper
echelons of a higher education committed to an idyll of global citizenship.
I did my own part in the global pivot. For severa! years, I oversaw Princeton's
internationalisation drive, creating global knowledge supply chains. It never occurred to me,
or to others, to ask: what would happen to those less sexy, diminutive, scales of civic
engagement? We didn't worry much. They were the remits of provincialism, quietly escorted
from the stage upon which we were supposed to be educating the new homo globus.
During globalisation's up-cycle, it was easier to overlook the divides. When economies
slumped, and globalisation fatigue set in, the gauzy veil carne off.
This does not make global history less pressing. On the contrary. One of the ironies is that
the anti-globalism movement is immersed in transnational mutuai adoration networks. Tue
day after the Brexit plebiscite, Trump travelled to the UK to reopen his golf resort. Tue
British had 'taken back their country', he told the bristle of microphones, then retumed
home to Make America Great Again. Le Pen's excitement about Trump is well-known.
Fyodor V Biryukov, head of Rodina, the Russian Motherland Party, calls this swarm 'a new
global revolution'. It was, we should recall, the global financial crisis of 2008-9 that did the
most to ravage the hopes of one-world dreamers, emanating from the sector that had gone
furthest to fuse Westemers and Resterners while creating deeper divides at home: banking.
In short, we need narratives of global life that reckon with disintegration as well as
integration, the costs and not just the bounty of interdependence. They might not do well
on the chirpy TED-talk circuit, compete with Friedman's unbridled faith in borderless
technocracy, or appeal much to Davos Man. But if we are going to come to terms with the
deep histories of global transformations, we need to remind ourselves of one of the
historian's crafts, and listen to the other half of the globe, the tribalists out there and right
here, talking back.
CONTI PUBBLICI
miglioramento nel
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE
mercato del lavoro
DISCRI MI NAZI ON E
03.03.17
Michele Pellizzari ENERGIA E AMBIENTE
EUROPA
FAMIGLIA
I dati confermano che negli ultimi mesi non si
FINANZA
è arrestato il lento ma progressivo
miglioramento del mercato del lavoro. La FISCO
decontribuzione ha avuto un ruolo importante,
GIUSTIZIA
ma è stata un investimento ragionevole in
tempo di crisi. Più difficile indicare il IMMIGRAZIONE
INFRASTRUTTURE E TRASPORTI
Con la pubblicazione dei dati Istat sulle forze
di lavoro per il mese di gennaio 2017 si INNOVAZIONE E RICERCA
completa il quadro delle statistiche disponibili
INTERNAZIONALI
per comprendere le più recenti dinamiche del
nostro mercato del lavoro. Qualche giorno ISTITUZIONI E FEDERALISMO
prima l'Inps aveva già diffuso le statistiche
LAVORO
per il mese di dicembre 2016 del suo
Osservatorio del precariato e diversi MEZZOGIORNO
CODSidcnvoli.
In c:onc1uaiane, llUlla bllse dai dati oggi
di1pom1n1i 11 in attesa di llJ!aHù pià dettagliate,
mi llCllllbm si posaa ragioncwolmcmre affimmre
che dtioontribuzioni 111011& acthmmo con tutta
probamJid contribuito al MCllltll
migliomm..,to del 110111m mm:ato, sia llllDa
aua compammte ciclica cliii strutturale. La
definizioo11 Clll&Ua dl!lla djmcmsl1111C1 di tale
conlribulD nsta Cllitamllllll da c:apinl.
DIO DBLL'AUTOltE
MIOfELE pe I IZZARI
Michele P11mZZ11ri à
profmaore cli
CICOilOlllia
all'univeIBità di
GineVIa dove dirige
anche il Laboratoire
d'écmmnie
Appliquée. In
Jm""'d•7J! à Blllto
CICOilOlllista pmsso
l'Organizzazione per la Coopmazione 11
lo Sviluppo Economico (OCSB) a Parigi
11 ha insegnato CIC'OOomia pmsso
l'Università Bocconi di Milano. È senior
fellow della Fondazione Rodolfo
Debenedetti e Research Fellow
dell'lstitute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
di Bonn. PhD in economics alla London
School of Economics e dottorato in
economia presso l'università di Verona,
ha trascorso periodi di ricerca presso le
università di Stanford e Berkeley. I suoi
principali interessi di ricerca sono nelle
aree dell'economia del lavoro,
dell'istruzione e dell'econometria
applicata. Redattore de lavoce.info.
Altri articoli di Michele Pellizzari
MARKO DJURICA I REUTERS
By Nathan Smith
A
cross the West today, a rising populist right is blaming established elites for letting in too
many immigrants. The immigrants, the populists complain, lower wages, dilute the local
culture, and pose a threat to national security. But even as anti-immigrant sentiment gains
ground, a small but growing band of open borders advocates is reaching the apposite
conclusion: Western elites aren't letting in too many immigrants-they are letting in too few. These
advocates, including the author, call fora regime of nearly complete freedom of migration
worldwide, with rare exceptions for preventing terrorism or the spread of contagious disease.
Borders would still exist in such a world, but as jurisdictional boundaries rather than as barriers to
human movement. Ending migration controls in this way would increase liberty, reduce global
poverty, and accelerate economie growth. But more fundamentally, it would challenge the right of
governments to regulate migration on the arbitrary grounds of sovereignty.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2017-02-28/world-without-borders?cid=nlc-fatoday-20170301&sp_mid=53530483&sp_rid=Y2VzYXJlc2FjY2... 1/14
uoernes. vv nen me ~tatue or Lmerty was erecteo m nszso, most or me worm s ooroers coma oe
freely crossed without passports. Passport requirements had sometimes existed before and were still
in place in backward tsarist Russia, but the more liberal governments of advanced European nations
regulated migration, as modem democracies regulate speech, only rather lightly and in exceptional
cases, if at all. Comprehensive restrictions on international movement, which almost everyone
today regards as a normal and necessary government function, are really an innovation of the
twentieth century, which emerged as liberalism gave way to nationalism and socialism in the wake
of World War I. Although the reasons for border control were often explicitly racist-such as the
national origins quotas of the 1924 U.S. Immigration Act-the restrictions were also motivateci by
bona fide national security concerns, as well as a desire to protect native wages and welfare states
from immigrant competition and foreign dependents.
The open borders position may sound new and radical, but it is simply a call far the
return of lost liberties.
More so than in the nineteenth century, open borders today would lead to an epic migration of
peoples. Gallup has estimateci that 640 million people worldwide want to emigrate from their
current country of residence. Yet the true number could be much greater-economists such as John
Kennan predict that in the absence of border controls, global labor markets would tend toward
equilibrium, which in practice would mean the migration of several billion people to the West. (In
the short to medium run, the true number of immigrants would be closer to Gallup's estimates, but
over the long run that figure might reach into the billions, as stocks of immigrants and their
descendants accumulate in destination countries.) The more efficient allocation of labor would
result in global increases in productivity, leading the world economy to nearly double in size. This
increased economie activity would, moreover, disproportionately benefit the world's poorest
people.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2017-02-28/world-without-borders?cid=nlc-fatoday-20170301&sp_mid=53530483&sp_rid=Y2VzYXJlc2FjY2... 2/14
A MORAL QUESTION
The issue of borders is as much a moral question as it is one of policy calculation. Assessing any
given outcome requires deciding on an ethical framework by which to evaluate and compare
alternatives. That is a question for moral philosophy. And today, the prevailing modem moral
philosophies, such as those derived from the works of Jeremy Bentham, Immanuel Kant, and John
Rawls, are all universalist and egalitarian-that is, they treat all human beings as having the same
inherent value and moral nature, even if their concrete rights and duties vary owing to
circumstance. These theories are inhospitable to those features of premodern ethical thought, such
as prescriptive communal loyalties and the di:fferentiation of people by race, sex, and other traits,
that still seem to influence the thinking of most immigration critics. The theories thus tend to favor
open borders.
This is the case regardless of which specifìc theory is chosen. Utilitarianism, for instance, attempts
to maximize the total happiness, or "utility," experienced by individuals, all of whom are valued
equally. On the question of open borders, a utilitarian would argue that even if some Westerners
might su:ffer, the utility gained by billions of migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and
other impoverished places easily outweighs the Westerners' inconvenience. Another popular moral
theory, laid out by John Rawls in his 1971 book, A Theory of]ustice, asks what kind of social order
people would design if placed behind a "veil of ignorance" -that is, if they did not know what their
own piace in the social order would be. Open borders advocates argue that no one, from behind the
veil of ignorance, would design a world in which they had an 80 percent chance of being born in a
poor country and trapped there, just so that if they turned out to be part of the lucky 20 percent
born in rich countries, they would avoid having some awkward neighbors.
Immigration critics tend not to make counterarguments within these universalist frameworks but
rather reject the frameworks altogether, arguing, for instance, that countries should privilege the
interests of their citizens over foreigners. In his 2013 book, Exodus, Paul Collier, a leading
development economist and another immigration critic, dismisses utilitarian universalist ethics as
"the stu:ff of teenage dreams," before suggesting that nations have something called "existence
value," such that the people of Mali should not be allowed to extinguish Mali through a universal
exodus. Yet the strongest argument for migration restrictions is one that applies even if utilitarian
universalism is accepted. For if open borders would somehow ruin the special something that makes
the rich countries rich, the benefìt to immigrants not only might be reduced but could be
overwhelmed by the loss of global public goods, such as technological innovation and international
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2017-02-28/world-without-borders?cid=nlc-fatoday-20170301&sp_mid=53530483&sp_rid=Y2VzYXJlc2FjY2... 3/14
ALKIS KONSTANTINIDIS I REUTERS
It is di:fficult to say with any fìnality why some countries are rich and others are poor, meaning that
it is also di:fficult to evaluate how mass migration might a:ffect global well-being. Some explanations
are more favorable to the prospect of open borders than others. If geography is the determining
factor in comparative development, as the geographer Jared Diamond has argued, then letting
people move from poorly endowed and unproductive places to more wealthy and productive ones
may have little downside. If human capital is more important-if the people in rich countries are
more productive for reasons of nature or nurture-then open borders will do little good, since
migrants will bring their low productivity with them, but also little harm, since citizens of the rich
West will retain their own high productivity and consequent high living standards. But probably the
most influential explanation of the relative wealth and poverty of nations holds that successful
development is the result of high-quality institutions. There would be reason to oppose
immigration, therefore, ifa massive influx of immigrants from developing countries would dilute
and damage the precious institutional heritage of the West, thus killing the goose that lays the
golden eggs.
There is no obvious reason, however, why the West's wealth-fostering institutions could not operate
as least as effectively amid much larger and poorer populations as they do today. The United States
during the Gilded Age and the United Kingdom during the Victorian era had impoverished
proletariats, but that did not prevent them from achieving rapid economie growth. On the contrary,
economists and economie historians such as Tyler Cowen, Robert Gordon, and Alexander Field
have argued that the period from 1880 to 1940 was the zenith of technological progress, especially
compared with the relative stagnation of recent decades. Of course, the proletariat of Victorian
England was British, and a foreign-born proletariat might conceivably be more destabilizing to
wealth-fostering institutions than a native one. And although history provides few if any examples
of a country's institutions being damaged, or its productivity being reduced, by peaceful migration,
it also affords few if any examples of peaceful migration on the scale predicted by economie models
of open borders. So caution is reasonable.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2017-02-28/world-without-borders?cid=nlc-fatoday-20170301&sp_mid=53530483&sp_rid=Y2VzYXJlc2FjY2... 5/14
A migrant at a protest in the 'Jungle" refugee camp in Calais, France, October 2016.
Yet it is also reasonable to ask how much coercion caution can justify. Enforcing today's border
regime requires separating families and imperiling people's lives-a difficult thing to justify on the
basis not of clear and present dangers but of speculative fears about long-run harms. A 2013 study
by Human Impact Partners found that about 150,000 children are separated from one or both
parents every year by U.S. deportation policies, and smaller numbers have been murdered as a
direct and foreseeable consequence of deportation to countries where they had reason to fear
violence. There is, moreover, a fundamental tension between the ideal of due process and the reality
of immigration enforcement regimes that give officials enormous and arbitrary power aver people's
lives. In the United States, immigration enforcement often clashes with the right of habeas corpus,
since people who have committed no imprisonable offense can get stuck in indefinite detention.
With due process compromised, mistakes happen, and U.S. Immigration and Customs
Enforcement has mistakenly deported thousands of U.S. citizens. Such practices would be
troubling even if they were the desperate expedients of a nation during wartime.
But as harsh as U.S. immigration enforcement is, it does not prevent millions from coming, because
the benefìts of living in the United States are so great. If enforcement were still harsher, the
incentive to come would be reduced but not eliminated, and human rights, including those of
native-born citizens, would be violated even more severely. Many prefer amnesty as a solution:
large majorities of Americans-a recent Gallup poll put the number at 65 percent-favor granting a
path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. But amnesty gives foreigners a strong incentive
to illegally migrate in the hope of benefìting from the next amnesty. In the two decades after U.S.
President Ronald Reagan signed the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act, which gave
amnesty to three million undocumented immigrants, the number of undocumented immigrants in
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2017-02-28/world-without-borders?cid=nlc-fatoday-20170301&sp_mid=53530483&sp_rid=Y2VzYXJlc2FjY2... 6/14
mainstream politicians, however, advocate for gentler policies toward today's immigrants while
naively assuming that effective border enforcement can be achieved in the future. Open borders
advocates, by contrast, can deplore the procedura! injustices of immigration enforcement without
inconsistency, for they oppose the goal of immigration enforcement as well as the harsh means by
which it is achieved.
Immigration restrictionists often argue that citizens of a nation have the democratic right to decide
who enters their country and who does not. Open borders advocates also want a democratic form of
government in which leaders are elected, but they want to limit the powers enjoyed by democratic
governments, such as the right to restrict movement. Letting people choose the jurisdiction in
which they live is at least as good a method as voting when it comes to implementing the principle
of rule by consent of the governed. And even more important than democracy in this regard is
freedom. These usually go together in today's world, but not because democracy inherently favors
freedom. Individua! rights such as free speech are, in a sense, undemocratic, for they mean that no
matter how much the majority of people hate what someone says, they cannot silence him. The
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2017-02-28/world-without-borders?cid=nlc-fatoday-20170301&sp_mid=53530483&sp_rid=Y2VzYXJlc2FjY2... 7/14
upenmg ooroers woum expano me scope or rreeoom, strengmen respect ror ngnts, ano wmen me
realm of actions that governments, incluciing ciemocratic ones, are not alloweci to take. This
encieavor is an extension of the liberal project that has animateci the West since the Enlightenment.
Anci those who sympathize with abolishing migration restrictions, but fear how popular backlash
against immigration has recently affecteci Western ciemocracy, shoulci ask themselves whether
freeciom can really be secure if its growth is curtaileci; whether respect for rights can be compatible
with the exclusion of the foreign-born; anci whether, in the Uniteci States, immigrants are really a
greater threat to freeciom anci the rule of law than are native-born cievotees of the presicient, Donalci
Trump.
SIGN UP
Morning Briefing
Wednesday, March 1, 2017 NYlimes.com »
Thank you for supporting Today's Headlines: European Morning. Welcome to the
European edition of The Times's Moming Briefing, your new rundown for the day's
top stories, delivered Monday through Friday. If you have any questions or concems,
please contact us.
Europa Edltlon
Good morning.
Crowley/The NewYorkTimes
• In bis first address to Congress, President Trump asked lawmakers for help in
__t_ __ !l..l! _ _ L'L- TT-!.&.-..l C't.L-.&.--' !-L--L---.L---- __ _] -L-----L'L--!-- .1.1-- _!l!.a. _ _ _
reouuamg me umtea .:imes ll1mlBt1'UCWre ana strengtoemng me Dlllltary.
Mr. Trump said he was eager to reach across partisan lines and put aside "triviai fights"' in
the intere11t of helping Americans. But he was Rhprt on debtjl11 aJviut hgw to açbjm m..
~.
Earlier in the day, he was said to be oon.sidering a compromise on immigration, but his
speech held to his tough campaign stance.
• llu.uia cla.shed with the U.S., Britain and France aver the war in S;yrla at the U.N.
Security C.OuncìL
Moscow and China blocked a resolution that would have punished the govemment of
President Bashar al-.Assad for wàng chemical weapoll8 in Syria.
The American ambassador, Nildd R. Haley, accused the Kremlin of putting ":it:s friends in
the Assad regime" before global securi.ty.
• Jeff Serllliom, in his first oflicial speech a.s U.S. attorney general, promised a tsm1her
approach to drng t:raffiç)tjng and illr.pl jmmjgrn.tign. That theme fol'D!B the backbon.e of1
yision of '!'!l!!!aking America sharesl by Ste.phen X. Rannon, the chief White House strategist
And Mr. Trump's education secretary, Betsy DeVos, stwmed many African-Americans
by cliapçtwjrini bj11tpriçally b]ar.Js 001!'&";3 apd uniyemjtjm - fuunded fur Btudents barred
from segregateci white schools - as "pioneers when it oomes to school choice."
• N"ip:ria.'s military ha.s made headway in its war against Boko Haram. the radical
Islamist militants rerrorizing the wontry's northeast.
But witnesses say that in the process, the military ha" a1so resorted to tenor, slaugbtering
civilianB and burning village&.
"We separated the corpst'..'l from the ones who had not yet died," said a sorvivor, who said
she lost Bix relativw in a mass acre."Ali of our bodies were stained wìth blood...
• Frmee is lnsjng tbe rom ofitJ Wtttmjc proyincial tqwns - dense hubs of urbani\)' deep in
the rouutryside where Bal7.ac set bis novels - as commerce moves to sublll'ban shopping
malls.
"We've lost that conviviality that was our signature," a city councilma1:1 in southern France
said.
That change ha.s fueled anxieties about protecting a way oflife, helpiDg the aimpaign of
Marine Le Pen, the far-right presidential candidate. And some Parisians are looking
overseas for help by seeking an Cimpnejble) Ob1m11 ramtid11cy.
Business
•
• •
• •
• •
• YouTube salii it planned to start a s;ubscriptipn-based re}eyjsion seMre. wading into the
oomplex web afbroadca.sttelevision.
• Penguin lt.andom. BOUl'le acgujn:d wprld rights to new books by former President
Ba:rack Obama and Michelle Obama, the funner fim lady.
IntheNews
• Ital,y's praident commuted part of a prison sentence of a furmer C.I.A. officer detained
in Portugal, ahove, over the kidnapping of a terrorism. suspect in 2003, meaning she will
most likel:y avoid imprisonment. !The New York Times]
• Jean-ctaude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, will PW!!lnt a white
papertoday outliningways tokeep the E.U. together. Critica saythedraft lacks a clear
vision. lPoliticol
• Hungary's prime mini.stcr, Vikl:or Orban, declarecl that "ethnic homogeneity" was
vital fur the cowrtry's eoonomic succt'.\lS. lAgence fl'llDm-pr.:..r.el
• lldar Dadin, the Rvssian opposition activist recently released. from a Sìberian prison,
spoke out about the torture he endured. "The problem. is the sadiBts know how to beat," he
sai.d. fMoscow Timesl
• As Colombia'• FAR.C n:bels beg:jn dismniugtockf, here's OUI recent report about
guenillas tuming cmlia.n. "We've spent 52 years in hammocks," said one commander. "Ifs
time we m~ mto tiny houses." !The New York Times]
• In the U.S., an online debate erupted over a photo of Kellyanne Conway, a presidential
adviser, kneeling on a couch during a meeting in the Ova1 Oflice. !Ihe New York Timesl
Smarter Living
o
o
• Belore your day gets going, read up about the benefits of@ntrolled breything..
• Can great friencbhip be as strong as romanee? This week's Mndmn Loye loolgi at an
int:ergenerationaj bond that feels that wayto the author.
• Recipe of the day: Ifyou're goiDg to roast a chicken, Ja!JQues Pepin's recipe is the way
togo.
Noteworthy
• No more than 30 vaquitas, miniatore snub-nosed porpoises that live in Mexican
waters, are left. Experts propose<l lrr&J»pg sgme in çaptiyity as a !ast resgrt.
• And "Madonna in a. Fur Coat," a love story, has improbahlY Myme a bqt seller in
Iurkey. unìting readers in the pola:ri1.ed country.
BackStory
.But the item in Lot 92 at Bonhams is no ordinary fungus. It wa.s part ofthe batch that
Alexander Fleming used to produce penicillin in 1928. The Scottish scientiBt is credite<l
with the discovery, a happy accident that cbanged the world of medicine and save<l milliom
oflM:s. Penicillin is stìll used to treat bacterial iDfecl:ionB today. It's expected to gofur at
lea.st 4000 pounds (or almost $s,ooo).
The mold itself. a green-yellow splotch, is mounted inside a small glass disc. The back is
insaibe<l in Mr. Fteming's own writing, "The mould that first made Penicillin," with bis
signature.
Such discs have been given as gifts to Prince Philip, Winston Churchill and Marlene
Dietrich.
Many samples of Fleming's medicai breakthrough have sold in the (yes, real) historical
mold market. In 1998, one sample was bought for f'.8,050. A piece that sold in 2015 carne
with a letter from the scientist and a note from his former housekeeper, addressed to future
owners.
This "is a blob of the originai mould of penicillin," she wrote, "not to be confused with
Gorgonzola cheese!!!"
Morning Briefing
Thursday, March 2, 2017 NYlimes.com »
Thank you for supporting Today's Headlines: European Morning. Welcome to the
European edition of The Times's Moming Briefing, your new rundown for the day's
top stories, delivered Monday through Friday. If you have any questions or concems,
please contact us.
Europe Edltlon
Good morning.
Drago/The N ewYorkTunes
• In their final days in office, Obama administration officials scrambled to ensure that
mrewgence on .KUSS!an eu:om w mterrere m tae Ame:ncan presiaemuu e.iecaon ano
Moscow"s connections with members of the Trump campaign was Preserved
U.S. allie&, including the British and the Dutch, had provided infunnation describing
meetinp in Europe between people close to the R'.remlin and associa~ ofMr. Trump,
former U.S. officials said.
Beyond leavìng a trait for investigalors, the officials also wanted to help F.uropean allies
oombat the threat of Russian intexfereace in upcoming election.s there.
And the U.S. attomey generai. JeffSessions, iB facing questiou over two previously
undisclosed meeting& wìth R.n&sia's ambassador la.st year.
• Reaction to Pre.tident Trump's addreas to C:Ongres.s tended t'O focus 011 it8 sober
style. His seriousness of purpose and calls for unìty w!!l!!lmd- and sur;priBed- many of
the nr_ady 48 mj11ign yieyrers..
Mr. Trump fa.ces not onl;y a committed Democratic opposition but a divided Re,publiran
hlm·
•• •
•
• Ru.uian aircraft mjiitakenlybombçd Syrjan Arab figbtm who were being trained by
U.S. furres, another unintended clash among the myriad furoe& operating on the battlefield.
U.N. inwstigators released a miort dçt11mng war gimes in Syria, ralling the government's
bombing of a hum11nitarian convoy in September, which kìlled l4 aid workers, •one of the
most egi:egious."
In Iraq, government fuJ:Ce11 lllmely snmmnded lJilmnic State mmtapm in MosuL Our
reporter met a familvflr&ing tbe port:jop ofthe city still controlled by the milfumts.
• In Eastern :Burope, populist leaders are mçking down on nonggremmenta}
m1niz:atjnp1 onçe pmterted by Wghjpgtpn.
Orpnizations funded by George Soros, above, the hberal American billionaire, are facing
particular ire, accused. of working to tlood Burope with Muslim refugees and tnmsform
•Christian" natioll8 into multicultural ste'W8 of left-wing globalism.
•A team ofthree Spanish archited8 won the Pritzker Prize. thcir pmfmjon's hjghm
honor.
It might be a sign that the era of the solo celebrity arclùtwt may be aver. The award cited
"their inten.sely collaborative way of working together, where the creative process,
oommitment to vision and ali re.spo11B1"bilities are shared equall;y."
. 4 • •
.J > • •
• · • 1 f· I.
• Scientùts may bave found the oldt>.rt sigos of lif'e on Earth. Or nat.
Some researchers say ancient rockB in a remote geological outpost in Canada yjeJded
b@i;teyia fu§!!il' that could be up to 4.2 billion years old, relatively soon after the planefs
birth. Others are dubious - and vocal.
Business
Snaplnc.
~-
~
ì.. 1.
' ' "
-~.
H
Jf /,'llli
....'Ii
~
• Snap Inc., Snapchat's pareirt company, m11@ its mucb.-hmlded m11rket dehut with a
wluation set at $24 billion, an extraordinary starting point fora trajectoiythat oould rise
like Facebook - or stumble like Twitter.
• Additional costs may make Norwegian Air's $65 tran!l-Af!agtic fares look like less of a
bargain.
• Here•s OW' reriew ofthe first must-try device of 2017: the Nintendo Switcb.
• The Dow clngd ahoye 2LOOO for tbe first time. Here's a mapshot of gloMI m1rkets.
IntheNews
• Britain.'s House ofLorcb voted to amen.d the govemment's draft "Brexìt" law, tieeking
t'O guarantee the rights of E.U. citi7.en.& living in the country, but the more iB unlikelyto
deraìl the government's timetable. !The Qt•wrli11nJ
• Geert Wdders, the Dutcli m-right politician, said he would ~ campaigning a.s bis
party rell behind the goveming liberal party in a poll for the first time .sinre November.
Eleci:ìons are next Wednesday. rpgJjtioo]
• F}nland's same sex coupla can now marry an.d adopt c:hildren. !Ikl
Smarter Living
• llec:ipe of the day: Fora diffurent take on dinner, by roasted fi..b with sweet pçp;pers.
Noteworthy
• Mount Etna in Sicìly, Burope's most active volcano, roared to lire in an ernption that
oould be seen for milu.
• Be Dice to doctors and nurses. A Btudy of an Israeli neonatal UDi.t suggests th1t qua]jty of
care mjgbt suffer ifa parent is rude. or evenjust unpl.ea.sant, to the medica! staff.
• Forget fishing or quilting. Older New ZealaDders are fincting purpose in coffip-buildjng
d!lht. One group's motto: "fine aDd affoi:dable underground furniture."'
BackStory
When the movie "Ring Kong" was fi:rst scmmM 84 years ago todv in New York Citf, it
was widely aDt:icipated fur its technological feats and a challenging nan:ati:ve that had a
"moDStrous ape 50 feet tall" climbing the still-new Empire State Building.
"Ihe film wìll show prehistoric monsters fighting one another and malring weird sounds.•
The 'l'ime& miorted befure the release, ralling it a "'fimtastic film."
It also helped define the career of Bruee Cabot, who playOO Jaclt Drisooll, the hero who
l't'$CUt'.\l Fay Wray from the giant ape.
Mr. Cabofs career didn't start in acting dooL At 14. he scavenged <:attle remaiJIB on the
prairit'.\l of New Mexico furbone meal. Work in construction "gave him a democratic
outlook on life," The Thnes ~ in 1933. ~a ship dookband, he worked bis way to
Europe and meandered through post-World War I France and Spain.
After "Xing Kong," a series of supporling roll'.\! fullowed, often alongside John Wayne.
World War ll military service took him back to Europe, where he worked in jnteTijgence.
That may bave prepared him fur one of his last ro~: Fighting a fictitious tfP1 named James
Bond in "DiamondsAre Forever."
Morning Briefing
Friday, March 3, 2017 NYlimes.com »
Thank you for supporting Today's Headlines: European Morning. Welcome to the
European edition of The Times's Moming Briefing, your new rundown for the day's
top stories, delivered Monday through Friday. If you have any questions or concems,
please contact us.
Europe Edltlon
Good morning.
• The Trump administration faced renewed turmoil over new disclosures of contacts
.&.-- _!_li __ L__..] _ • ..!.&.'L C't------T TT!'-1---1- .&.1..- n ____ ! __ --'-----..l-- .&.- .&.'L- TT-!.&.-..l ~.&.-.&.-- ...] __ __! _ _
mp ames .o.ao wito .:iergey J • .r.:wyax, toe .lWBBlllD. amnassaaor lO 'Ul.e umtoo :stares, ourmg
the presidential campaign or before the inauguration.
Attomey Genera! Jeff Sessions, the top U.S. law emorcement officia}, If&JJ"fè bjm!!f:lffrom
anyinyestigation into R:ussian meddling in the 2016 eledion. Here's afimeline ofhis
meetings.
Mr. KiBlyak a1so metwith Mr. Trump's son-in-law and senior adviser, Jan:d Knsbner, in
December.
The jgwly 1md oonljul djplomat has told associates that he is likeb' to be replaced. by a hard-
line genera!.
• Wlth. an ~on Rn18:ia, Sweden sought to justìfy the return to manciatozy mi)jtwy
!!mlÌ® - abolished in 2010 - by citing a "deteriorating secu:rity environment."
The neutral countrywill a1so begin to dust off public shelters that bave not been inspected
for two decades.
• The maJ1)r ofCal•i• hae hapnM thç 013anjmd mllrib11tjqp gffugd to mjmW in an
effort to prevent the establishment of new makeshift migrant camps in the Frencb. city.
We visitecl refugee camps in Greece, where tçn,. ofthou!!!!nds of migran!;s are languisbing.
maoy of them. children. Thcir lives there bave taken on an air of perma11ence.
She is among a group of women wlw are leading what were onc:e fringe parties - pushing
their extremist views to the political mainstream and drawing support from fgma]e vnfem.
• Syrian gowernment fOn:ea 11gain drgyç JsluWc State mmtants out of P11lm,yra, the
ancient city that was among the leading tourist attrac:tiou in prewar Syria.
The I.slamic State had used the city as a propaganda windfall, malring a sport of pilfering
and vandalizing prized antiqu.ities it considered heretical and using the Roman theater for
public beheadinp.
• Egypt's top appeals coart c1'2'ml fpnner PmJjdent HO§DÌ MuMrak of any
l't'$J>Ol!BlDility for the killing of hundreds of people during the 2011 protests that ended bis
30-year rule. sweeping away the final legal hui:dle to bis release from dereirtion.
None of the Mubarak-era figure9 who grew rich and influenti.al during bis time in power are
still in jail.
Business
Snaplnc.
c.
• Shares ofSnap Inc., valued at $24 billion in its public offering, jnmped more tbpn 40
permrt in the company's first day of trading. Here's a look at tecb. I.P.Q.s ajnrn 1992 and
where valuations stand now.
• Wall Stteet has been on an upward trajectory since IDection Day. Our rolnmnist loob at
what the Tn1mp e!fect and booming markets meyn for the globa1 eçonamy.
• U.S. lederai offic:ers raided Oil:e:r];!il'ar offim over an inquùy into accusations that the
com~ reduced its American tax. bili by shifting profits to Switzerland.
IntheNews
• In Ukraine, nationalist acti.vists a:rmed with hunting rifles and clubs are trying to choke
ofI coaJ. supplies that provide income for Russian-backed separatists. !The 'NewYork,TjmP§]
• European lawma:ken, in a nonbinding vote, called for an end to vis a-free trave! for
U.S. citi1.ens unti! 'visa restrictions on fiveE.U. member states are lifted by Washington.
fBeuteml
• Natiom and philanthropùts pledged close to $200 million for family planning at a
w .on•~1" w ""'wpo;;~c;: • u •.:o. IJUli vu.1W.1W111S 1v1· isiuu_p,11~t11uv~\c;:
""'wt:.t:c;:u~
• In Germany, the arrests of two people who are suspected t"O be members of the Nusra
Front, a Syrian terrorist group, are part of an eftbrt t"O weed out radical IslamiBbl. The
domestic intelligence serviee estimates that number at t,6oo, up from 100 three years ago.
!Ihe New YorkTjmP§]
• Did China buy better socoor? Play bq;jns today in the Super IMgue. which outspent the
British Premier Leagu.e fur the first time and is now packed with high-ticlcet stars. [Reutersl
Smarter Living
• Reàpe of the da:f: Por a fi11ing, meatlt'.\JS meal, a cabbtge and potato gratin gets the job
done with style.
Noteworthy
• Arepfu:a ofLondon's Tower Bridge in China, celebrated a& •even more
magnificent" than the origina}, has set offa debate aver whether oopycat buildings ~
art111lly denignrting ChiDfi!!f! culture.
• ScientùbJ ha:re determined the probable cause for the woolly m11mmoth's demise in
Siberia based on a message left in the tooth of a male mammoth. It supportB the idea that a.s
a population dwindles, natwal seledion beoomes less ef!jcient.
•AD Englisb 8heep farmer makes hjR ra@ in an Op-Bd on why demand for cheap food
is killing the American dream for millions of people. •pood is more than a oommodity," he
writes.
•New Orleans may be known for Mardi Gras, but the Alabama town ofMobile dates ili
Carnjwl çrJebmtian to 1703, when ìt was the capitai of the French colony of IDuisiana.
• And bere'• our 36-houn guide to the deligbtful Morocean metlopoliB of Fez, where
new hotels, shops and caful oomplein@t tbe city's anciegt beehjw alJure,
BackStory
Iceland endured a moc:k con.stìtutional crisis 1ast week alter the pre.sident, Gu.dni Thorlacius
Johannesson.jokingly tolda class ofhigb. school students that he would like to han
pineapple pizza toppings.
An uproar on social media ensued. and Mr. Johannesson retracted bis proposa'I. He wrote
in a irtatemçnt that "presidentB should not bave nnlimil:ed power,"' adding that he "would
notwmt to live in sucli a oountry. For pizzas, I reoommend seafuod."
Unlike Mr. Johannesson, Saparmurat Njyawy. the Turkmenistan president who died in
2006, stood out as a head of state who used bis office to impose bis penional preferences on
citizenB.
Mr. Ni,yazov also banned ~ and video games. And he had a gplden rptatjpg statue of
bimself installed in Ashgabat, the capital
His successor, Gurba:nguJy Berdymukbammedov, relocated the statue and ordered hi!! own
lmilt. Last month, he was re-eleded. winning 98 perregt ofthe yqte.
Recul the latest editjon e,ftlte U.S. bril!flng bere and ths late.tt rorMja qndAustmlia bue.
What would yC11t 1ilce w see here? C<mtact us at mgqpebril!flng@rudimq.oom.
Qtbt Ntw Uork Qtimes https://nyti.ms/21kWymZ
The latest big buzz is about J eff Sessions, the attorney general. It tums out that he
lied during bis confinnation hearings, denying that he had met with Russian
officials during the 2016 campaign. In fact, he met twice with the Russian
ambassador, who is widely reported to also be a key spymaster.
Not incidentally, if this news hadn't come to light, forcing Mr. Sessions to
recuse himseH, he would bave supervised the investigation into Russian election
meddling, possibly in collusion with the Trump campaign.
But let's not focus too much on Mr. Sessions. After all, he is joined in the
cabinet by Scott Pruitt, the Environmental Protection Agency administrator, who
lied to Congress about his use of a private email account; Tom Price, the secretary
of health and human services, who lied about a sweetheart deal to purchase stock
in a biotechnology company at a discount; and Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury
secretary, who falsely told Congress that bis financial finn didn't engage in "robo-
signing" of foreclosure documents, seizing homes without proper consideration.
And they would have served with Michael Flynn as national security adviser,
but for the fact that Mr. Flynn was forced out after the press discovered that, like
Mr. Sessions, he had lied about contacts with the Russian ambassador.
At this point it's easier to list the Trump officials who haven't been caught lying
under oath than those who bave. This is not an accident.
Critics of our politica} culture used to complain, with justification, about
politicians' addiction to spin - their inveterate habit of downplaying awkward
facts and presenting their actions in a much better light than they deserved. But
all indications are that the age of spin is over. lt has been replaced by an era of
raw, shameless dishonesty.
lt's important not to indulge in an easy cynicism, to say that politicians bave
always lied and always will. What we're getting from Mr. Trump is simply on a
different plane from anything we've seen before.
For one thing, politicians used to limit their outright lies to matters not easily
checked - hidden affairs, under the table deals, and so on. But now we bave the
man who ran the Miss Universe competition in Moscow three years ago, and who
declared just last year that "I know Russia well," then last month said, "I haven't
called Russia in 10 years."
And what about the Fourth Estate? Will it let us down, too?
But then you watch something like the way much of the news media
responded to Mr. Trump's congressional address, and you feel despair. lt was a
speech filled with falsehoods and vile policy proposals, but read calmly off the
teleprompter - and suddenly everyone was declaring the liar in chief
"presidential."
The point is that ifthat's all it takes to exonerate the most dishonest man
ever to hold high office in America, we're doomed. Let's hope it doesn't happen
agam.
Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook and Twitter
(@NYI'opinion), and sign upfor the Opinion Today newsletter.
A version of this op-ed appears in print on March 3, 2017, on Page A27 of the New York edition with
the headline: Goodbye Spin, Hello Raw Dishonesty.
PROGRAMME
É L E C T I O N P RÉ S I DE N T I E L L E — 23 AV RI L ET 7 M A I 2 0 1 7
M O N C O N T R AT AV E C L A N AT I O N
3
universel avec des exigences nouvelles pour Le cinquième chantier sera celui Je veux que nous retrouvions ensemble la
chacun. du renouveau démocratique. Le fierté d’être français. Car la France est une
Cela s’accompagnera d’un plan inédit pour
la formation et la qualification de nos conci-
« LA FRANCE EST UNE soupçon qui pèse aujourd’hui sur nombre
de représentants, le manque d’efficacité et
chance. Et chacun doit pouvoir y tenir ses
promesses.
toyens les plus fragiles. Je veux par là créer
des emplois, protéger efficacement chacun et
CHANCE. ET CHACUN l’insuffisante responsabilité de nos dirigeants
menacent notre démocratie. C’est pourquoi
Je serai le garant du bon fonctionnement de
nos institutions. Je définirai les responsabili-
améliorer le pouvoir d’achat des travailleurs.
Le troisième chantier sera celui de
DOIT POUVOIR Y TENIR je veux moraliser et responsabiliser la vie pu-
blique, et renouveler la représentation natio-
tés du gouvernement en particulier en ma-
tière de modernisation de l’action publique et
SES PROMESSES. »
nale.
de sérieux budgétaire. Je veillerai aussi à ce
la modernisation de notre écono-
Enfin, sixième et dernier chantier, que l’énergie citoyenne, l’expérimentation,
mie, d’une stratégie d’investissements ambi-
Le quatrième chantier que je vous je m’engage au plan international à l’innovation, les initiatives émanant du ter-
tieuse pour la France hexagonale et des ou-
propose consiste à renforcer la sé- défendre les intérêts de notre pays. En relan- rain participent à la modernisation de notre
tremers. Je veux accélérer l’émergence d’un
curité de la Nation. Notre sécurité à çant une Europe ambitieuse, qui investit et pays. Une grande cause nationale sera mise
nouveau modèle de croissance réconciliant
l’international s’inscrira dans une stratégie de qui protège, et dont la vitalité démocratique au cœur de cet engagement : l’égalité entre les
transition écologique, industrie du futur et
maintien de la paix et de lutte contre le ter- et le goût pour l’avenir seront retrouvés. Et femmes et les hommes.
agriculture de demain. Je veux recréer une
rorisme islamiste. La sécurité intérieure pas- en assurant une nouvelle politique en Afrique
mobilité économique et sociale par le numé- Je rendrai compte chaque année devant le
sera par un investissement conséquent dans où la paix et l’esprit d’entreprise construi-
rique, la recherche et l’innovation, le travail et Parlement de l’avancée de ce contrat avec
nos forces de l’ordre, leur réorganisation, ront le siècle qui commence.
l’entrepreneuriat. La société que je veux sera vous. Il permettra de retrouver l’esprit de
à la fois libérée des carcans et des blocages, mais aussi dans la vigilance que toute notre Les six chantiers de ce contrat permettront conquête dont nous avons besoin.
et protectrice des plus faibles (c’est pour cela Nation doit retrouver. Assurer la sécurité, de construire une société de mobilité plutôt
que la transformation de notre système de faire respecter sans concession notre laïcité, que de statuts, une Nation forte et conqué-
santé et de notre politique du logement y restaurer partout l’autorité de l’État et dans rante.
aura aussi une place centrale). l’État, garantir l’indépendance de l’autorité
judiciaire sont les conditions premières de la
liberté de chacun.
4 EM M A N U EL M A C R O N P R ÉSI D EN T. M O N C O N T R AT AV E C L E S FR AN ÇAIS 5
Bien vivre Nous améliorerons le pouvoir d’achat de tous
les travailleurs.
de son travail Sans que cela ne revienne plus cher aux employeurs, nous réduirons les cotisations
payées par les salariés, par les indépendants et par les fonctionnaires : près de 500 euros
et inventer
supplémentaires nets par an pour un salaire de 2200 euros nets par mois !
de nouvelles
des employés et des salariés les moins bien payés.
Tous les smicards qui bénéficient de la prime d’activité toucheront par exemple l’équivalent
d’un 13e mois de salaire, soit 100€ nets de plus chaque mois.
Libérer
Nous combattrons la précarité en responsabilisant
les employeurs.
le travail
Nous créerons un bonus-malus sur l’assurance-chômage. Les employeurs qui
entretiennent la précarité en recourant exagérément aux contrats courts paieront
et l’esprit
plus de charges, ceux qui créent des emplois stables en paieront moins.
d’entreprise
Les principes fondamentaux (durée légale du temps de travail, égalité professionnelle,
salaire minimum...) resteront dans la loi. Mais, par exemple, les horaires effectifs
ou l’organisation du travail seront négociés au plus près du terrain. Ils seront définis
par accord majoritaire ou par référendum d’entreprise sur la base d’un accord.
Le problème qui est aujourd’hui au cœur
des préoccupations des Français, c’est le chômage Nous permettrons à tous les travailleurs d’avoir
de masse que nous connaissons depuis tant d’années. droit à l’assurance-chômage.
Pour le surmonter, il faut changer d’approche. Les artisans, les commerçants indépendants, les entrepreneurs, les professions libérales,
Notre pays n’aime pas toujours la réussite : ceux et les agriculteurs disposeront, comme les salariés, de cette protection.
qui réussissent suscitent une forme de jalousie ou Nous créerons sur Internet un nouveau service
de suspicion. Mais notre pays refuse aussi l’échec : d’explication de la réglementation pour les entreprises.
que ce soit à l’école ou dans la vie professionnelle, Un site Internet unique donnera à chaque TPE ou PME les obligations légales
ceux qui échouent sont souvent montrés du doigt et conventionnelles qu’elle doit respecter en fonction de sa situation. Les réponses
et empêchés de tenter à nouveau leur chance. fournies en ligne seront valables face à l’administration.
Pourtant, nous avons besoin que nos concitoyens
se lancent, tentent, prennent des initiatives, quitte
à les aider à rebondir s’ils échouent. Et nous avons
besoin que certains de nos concitoyens réussissent,
créent de l’activité et des emplois, entraînant
les autres avec eux.
C’est pourquoi nous voulons libérer le travail
et l’esprit d’entreprise !
8 R ET R O U VEZ TOUTE S L E S PR OPOS ITION S S U R E N-MAR C HE .FR 9
Inventer Nous lancerons un grand Plan d’investissement
de 50 milliards d’euros.
un nouveau modèle
Ce plan sur 5 ans sera mis au service des qualifications de tous les citoyens, de la transition
écologique, de la révolution numérique, de la modernisation des services publics et de la
rénovation urbaine.
règles
Un système universel avec des règles communes de calcul des pensions sera progressive-
ment mis en place. Le fait de changer d’activité ou de secteur sera sans effet sur les droits
à la retraite. Avec un principe d’égalité : pour chaque euro cotisé, le même droit à pension
pour tous !
pour tous
Nous ne toucherons pas à l’âge de départ
à la retraite, ni au niveau des pensions.
Nous publierons les noms des entreprises qui ne
respectent pas l’égalité salariale entre les femmes
et les hommes.
Nous testerons au hasard, et massivement, les entreprises pour vérifier qu’elles respectent
bien la loi en la matière.
qui
Ils renforceront notamment notre dispositif de renseignement contre le terrorisme.
protège
et des habitants qu’elle sera chargée de protéger et d’entendre.
Vivre dans la peur, c’est vivre sans Toute peine prononcée sera exécutée.
être libre. Nous construirons 15 000 nouvelles places de prison.
La peur, c’est désormais celle que nous
Nous confirmerons la cyberdéfense
pouvons éprouver au moment de nous et la cybersécurité comme priorités de notre sécurité nationale.
rendre dans une gare, à la terrasse d’un
café, à un rassemblement qui pourrait Nous augmenterons les moyens de nos armées.
être une cible pour des terroristes. Nous mobiliserons 2% du PIB qui serviront à renouveler les avions ravitailleurs,
à moderniser les blindés de l’armée de terre, ainsi que la flotte de surface de notre marine
La peur, c’est aussi une forme d’angoisse nationale.
quotidienne : la crainte de laisser son Nous créerons un état-major permanent des
logement inoccupé pendant qu’on part opérations de sécurité intérieure, de renseignement
au travail ou en vacances, de croiser et de lutte contre le terrorisme.
le mauvais regard ou de s’asseoir Directement rattaché au président de la République, il associera les services et états-
majors des ministères de l’Intérieur et de la Défense, avec la participation des ministères
à la mauvaise place dans les transports. des transports, de la santé et de l’industrie.
Surtout quand on est une femme.
Nous agirons avec nos partenaires européens pour
La puissance de l’État doit être mise créer une force de 5000 garde-frontières européens.
au service de la protection de tous Ils seront chargés de surveiller et protéger les frontières extérieures de l’Union
les Français, partout sur le territoire. européenne.
Et pour cela, ce sera tolérance zéro
lorsqu’il s’agit de sécurité.
Car la sécurité est la première
de nos libertés.
14 R ET R O U VEZ TOUTE S L E S PR OPOS ITION S S U R E N-MAR C HE .FR 15
Les mêmes Nous donnerons la priorité à l’école primaire
chances
pour que tous les élèves sachent lire, écrire et compter en arrivant en 6e.
pour tous
dans l’enceinte des écoles primaires et des collèges.
Nous donnerons plus d’autonomie aux équipes
nos enfants éducatives. Elles seront suivies et évaluées. La formation des enseignants sera
adaptée à ce nouveau cadre.
fait partie des premières et d’autres qui trébucheront. Nous demanderons à chaque lycée professionnel
puissances du monde, alors Ou ne pourront tout et université de publier ses résultats (débouchés, salaires, etc.)
qu’elle représente moins de 1% simplement pas se lancer sur les 3 dernières années.
de la population mondiale. dans la course. Ou choisiront Nous construirons 80 000 logements pour les jeunes.
une trajectoire différente.
Depuis que nos performances Mais si l’on connaît à l’avance Nous ouvrirons les bibliothèques en soirée
scolaires diminuent, notre pays l’ordre d’arrivée, alors et le week-end.
éprouve des difficultés : ce n’est à quoi bon essayer de courir ? Nous créerons un « Pass Culture ». Il permettra à chaque
pas un hasard. Notre cohésion Français de 18 ans d’effectuer 500 euros de dépenses culturelles (cinéma, théâtre, livres...).
nationale en dépend. Nous ne retirerons pas un euro au budget du ministère de la Culture.
Fiers d’être définitivement les lieux de culte dans lesquels certaines prêchent l’apologie du terrorisme.
Français : R E F O N D E R L E L I E N AV E C L A N AT I O N
exigence
Nous ferons de la maîtrise de la langue française
le principal critère de l’obtention de la nationalité
française.
et bienveillance Nous renforcerons l’apprentissage de notre langue pour les candidats à la naturalisation.
Quelle meilleure preuve de la volonté de quelqu’un de s’intégrer et de devenir français ?
protectrice
Pour pouvoir investir beaucoup plus qu’aujourd’hui, nous voulons un budget de la zone
euro voté par un Parlement de la zone euro et exécuté par un ministre de l’Économie
et à la hauteur
et des Finances de la zone euro.
Que de lâcheté et d’hypocrisie, quand on entend parler Nous construirons une Europe qui nous protège.
d’Europe ! Nous proposerons avec l’Allemagne une Europe de la défense associant les pays volon-
taires, en créant un Fonds européen de défense qui financera des équipements militaires
Certains l’accusent de tous les maux, oubliant qu’ils ont communs (comme les drones européens) et un Quartier Général européen permanent.
eux-mêmes négocié et signé les traités et tous les textes
qui en découlent. D’autres prétendent rendre la France Nous construirons une Europe qui protège
plus libre en sortant de l’Europe. Comme si nous avions nos industries stratégiques. Nous voulons un mécanisme de contrôle
plus de chances de peser seuls face à la Chine, à la Russie, des investissements étrangers en Europe afin de préserver nos secteurs stratégiques.
aux États-Unis (mais aussi face à Google, Apple, Facebook
et tous les géants du numérique) plutôt que rassemblés Dans la discussion du Brexit, nous défendrons
avec 500 millions d’Européens… l’intégrité du marché unique européen. Toutes les entreprises
qui y accèdent doivent être soumises aux mêmes disciplines.
Tous affaiblissent l’image de la France auprès de nos
partenaires en prétendant vouloir « renverser la table ». Nous créerons un marché unique du numérique
Un grand pays s’honore de tenir sa parole. en Europe. Un fonds de capital-risque permettra de financer le développement
Ce n’est pas la table qu’il faut renverser, c’est le cours des start-ups européennes.
de l’Europe.
Nous créerons un marché unique de l’énergie
Nous devons faire chez nous ce que tous nos partenaires en Europe. Nous fixerons un prix plancher du carbone dans les pays de l’Union.
ont fait chez eux : remettre notre économie en mouve-
ment et, dans l’intérêt de nos enfants, mieux gérer Nous donnerons la parole au peuple.
nos finances publiques. Mais l’Europe aussi doit changer : Nous proposerons des conventions citoyennes dans toute l’Europe dès la fin de l’année
elle ne doit pas avoir pour mission de gérer une bureaucra- 2017 pour redonner un sens au projet européen. Ces conventions aboutiront à un projet
tie, mais de protéger notre présent et de préparer qui sera ensuite adopté par tous les pays qui le souhaitent. Aucun État membre n’aura
notre avenir. Elle doit donc nous protéger dès aujourd’hui, le pouvoir de bloquer cette nouvelle étape.
et investir pour demain !
qui ont
trimestre maximum après la constatation des revenus (contre jusqu’à 2 ans aujourd’hui).
moins
Cette nouvelle structure sera chargée de déployer sur l’ensemble du territoire et en moins
de 5 ans les associations les plus utiles à notre société.
des Français
de chaque région et département.
Nous ne rajouterons aucune norme nationale
plus facile
aux normes européennes dans les secteurs agricole,
maritime et de la pêche.
Tous les services publics accueillant du public (hôpital, école,
tribunal, CAF, etc.) seront tenus d’afficher leurs résultats
Des décennies d’accumulation de normes et de règlements ont rendu la vie en termes de qualité de service (ex : temps d’attente, taux
de chacune et chacun plus compliquée au jour le jour. Que de temps perdu de satisfaction, etc.)
en démarches administratives, en renouvellement de papiers, ou à cause
Nous établirons dans chaque département
de la lenteur de nos procédures de justice !
un tribunal de première instance qui sera le guichet
Pour les entrepreneurs, c’est la même chose. Certains passent plus unique permettant un accès facilité au juge.
de temps à lutter contre les contraintes administratives qu’à développer Nous ne fermerons aucun site.
leur entreprise. Les élus locaux aussi se heurtent à des normes qui évoluent
tout le temps et qui coûtent de plus en plus cher. Nous raccourcirons les délais de jugement pour
les litiges inférieurs à 4000 euros. La procédure les concernant
La justification de cette énorme accumulation de règles et d’obligations sera entièrement dématérialisée et la décision sera rendue en ligne.
ne peut pas être seulement qu’elles ont toujours été là…
De nouveaux outils, par exemple numériques, existent déjà ou apparaissent
chaque année pour rendre les choses plus faciles.
C’est donc une révolution culturelle qu’il faut mener, notamment dans
nos administrations.
24 R ET R O U VEZ TOUTE S L E S PR OPOS ITION S S U R E N-MAR C HE .FR 25
Une démocratie Nous proposerons une grande loi de moralisation
de la vie publique. Elle comprendra :
rénovée
L’interdiction pour les parlementaires d’exercer des activités
de conseil parallèlement à leur mandat, pour mettre fin
aux conflits d’intérêt. Toutes leurs indemnités seront soumises à l’impôt.
L’interdiction de toute embauche par un élu ou un ministre
d’un membre de sa famille.
L’interdiction du cumul de plus de trois mandats identiques
successifs.
L’interdiction pour tous les détenteurs d’un casier judiciaire
(niveau B2) de se présenter à une élection.
La suppression du régime spécial des retraites
des parlementaires. Ils seront rattachés au régime général.
La présentation, par le président de la République, de son bilan
national et européen une fois par an devant le Congrès.
France
populaire que dans une commune riche. Dès 2020, 4 Français sur 5 ne paieront plus la taxe
d’habitation, et l’État remboursera entièrement auprès des communes leur manque
à gagner, à l’euro près, en préservant leur autonomie fiscale.
The Federa} Reserve is poised to raise its benchmark interest rate in mid-March,
significantly sooner than investors had expected, as it moves to keep pace with a
wave of economie optimism that started with the election of President Trump.
Ms. Yellen added that the Fed still expected to raise rates twice more later in the
year, which she said would bring the benchmark rate close to a level that the Fed
regards as neutra}, with low rates no longer providing an inducement for
borrowing and risk-taking. That outlook signals that an end is finally in sight for
the Fed's economie stimulus campaign, devised during the depths of the financial
crisis more than eight years ago.
Stanley Fischer, the Fed's vice chairman, delivered the same message at the same
time at a conference in New York. "We've seen a lot of substantial change in a
relatively short time," Mr. Fischer said of the postelection shift in economie
conditions. "There is almost no economie indicator that has come in badly in the
last three months."
Asked whether Fed officials were delivering a coordinated message, Mr. Fischer
responded wryly, "If there has been a conscious effort, I'm about to join it."
The impending rate increase could heighten tensions with the White House, which
wants to stimulate growth by cutting taxes, reducing regulation and increasing
defense and infrastructure spending. Fed officials bave concluded the economy is
already growing at something close to the maximum sustainable pace, meaning
faster growth should be offset by faster rate increases.
Financial markets, however, are taking the prospect ofhigher rates in stride. The
Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, which is up more than 11 percent since
Election Day, ended trading on Friday mostly flat.
The prospective Fed move has modest short-term implications for consumers.
Interest rates on car loans and some kinds of credit card debt will tick upward, but
remain at low levels by historical standards. Rates on 30-year mortgages are up by
about half a percentage point over the past year.
The broader consequences depend on the Fed's ability to raise interest rates
without slowing economie growth. The Fed's goal is to return rates to a level that
neither encourages nor impedes economie activity. Over the past century, however,
most of the centrai bank's attempts to strike that balance have ended in economie
recess10ns.
The American economy is in the midst of one of the longest expansions in the
nation's history, but it is also one of the weakest. The economy expanded by 1.6
percent in 2016, compared with 2.6 percent in 2015, according to the government's
most recent estimate.
Fed officials have concluded, however, that monetary policy cannot deliver faster
growth. The Fed's job is to minimize unemployment and moderate inflation. The
unemployment rate, at 4.8 percent in January, is in a range Fed officials regard as
healthy, and prices rose 1.9 percent in the 12 months ending in January, the closest
the Fed has come since 2012 to hitting its target of 2 percent annual inflation.
In December, the Fed raised its benchmark rate for just the second time since the
financial crisis, to a range of 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent, and predicted three
increases in 2017.
At the beginning ofthe week, however, Wall Street analysts and investors did not
expect the Fed to raise rates again any earlier than June. The Fed issued a
measured statement after its policy meeting in early February, and the meeting
minutes, published three weeks later, conveyed little sense of urgency.
Now, after a week of discussions, analysts regard a March increase as highly likely.
Michael Feroli, the chief United States economist at JPMorgan Chase, described
the shift in Fed language as "remarkably swift and decisive." Investors put the
chances at almost 80 percent in trading on Friday, according to an analysis of asset
prices by CME Group.
Some Fed officials appear particularly focused on the rise of the stock market.
William C. Dudley, the president ofthe Federai Reserve Bank ofNewYork, who
described markets as "very buoyant" on Tuesday, has said in the past that if
markets did not respond to rate increases, the Fed might need to act more
forcefully to tighten financial conditions.
lt is also getting harder to dismiss the market's reaction to Mr. Trump's victory as a
bout of temporary euphoria. Mr. Fischer noted on Friday that the stock market
boom was creating wealth that people would begin to spend.
Ms. Yellen pointed to an improvement in the global context. "The prospects for
further moderate economie growth look encouraging, particularly as risks
emanating from abroad appear to have receded somewhat," she said.
The shift in the Fed's language over the last week also may reflect a recognition
that market expectations were not keeping pace with the Fed's evolving view of the
economy. Ms. Yellen, in a February appearance before Congress, hinted that the
Fed might be providing a little too much stimulus, describing the Fed's policy as
"accommodative." But at the start of this week, investors still put a low probability
on a March increase.
Markets are wary ofthe Fed's flirtations with interest rate increases, as the centrai
bank in recent years has often found reasons for last-minute postponements.
On Tuesday, Mr. Dudley told CNBC that the case fora rate increase "has become a
lot more compelling."
On Wednesday, Lael Brainard, a Fed governor who has been one ofthe most
consistent supporters of raising interest rates slowly, suggested that she too was
ready to act.
"We are closing in on full employment, inflation is moving gradually toward our
target, foreign growth is on more solid footing, and risks to the outlook are as dose
to balanced as they have been in some time," Ms. Brainard said at Harvard's
Kennedy School of Government. "Assuming continued progress, it will likely be
appropriate soon to remove additional accommodation, continuing on a graduai
path."
Fed officials often bury their latest views on monetary policy at the end of their
speeches. Ms. Brainard's remarks carne at the beginning, so that no one missed the
point.
Then carne Friday, the last day on which Fed rules allowed officials to comment on
monetary policy before the March meeting, and Ms. Yellen delivered the last word.
"At our meeting later this month," she said, "the committee will evaluate whether
employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our expectations, in
which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be
appropriate."
https://nyti.ms/21Dx1 Rm
Editorials, Op-Ed and Letters I EDITORIAL
New Yorkers, if not city dwellers everywhere, might acknowledge a debt to Pope
Francis this week. He has offered a concrete, permanently useful prescription for
dealing with panhandlers.
lt's this: Give them the money, and don't worry about it.
The pope's advice, from an interview with a Milan magazine published just before
the beginning of Lent, is startlingly simple. lt's scripturally sound, yet possibly
confounding, even subversive.
You keep walking, or not. You give, or not. Loose coins, a dollar, or just a shake of
the head. Your rule may be blanket, or case-by-case.
If it's case by case, that means you have your own on-the-spot, individualized
benefits program, with a bit of means-testing, mental health and character
assessment, and criminal-background check- to the extent that any ofthis is
possible from a second or two of looking someone up and down.
Speaking to the magazine Scarp de' Tenis, which means Tennis Shoes, a monthly
for and about the homeless and marginalized, the pope said that giving something
to someone in need is "always right." (We're helped here by the translation in an
article from Catholic News Service.)
But what if someone uses the money for, say, a glass of wine? (A perfectly Milanese
question.) His answer: If "a glass of wine is the only happiness he has in life, that's
O.K. Instead, ask yourself, what do you do on the sly? What 'happiness' do you
seek in secret?" Another way to look at it, he said, is to recognize how you are the
"luckier" one, with a home, a spouse and children, and then ask why your
responsibility to help should be pushed onto someone else.
Then he posed a greater challenge. He said the way of giving is as important as the
gift. You should not simply drop a bill into a cup and walk away. You must stop,
look the person in the eyes, and touch his or her hands.
His teaching on divorced and remarried Catholics has infuriated some conservative
critics who accuse him, unfairly, of elevating compassion over doctrine. His recent
statements on refugees and immigrants are the global version of his panhandler
remarks - a rebuke aimed directly at the rich nations of Europe and at the United
States.
America is in the middle of a raging argument over poor outcasts. The president
speaks ofbuilding walls and repelling foreigners. That toxic mind-set can be
opposed in Washington, but it can also be confronted on the sidewalk. You don't
know what that guy will do with your dollar. Maybe you' d disapprove of what he
does. Maybe compassion is the right call.
https://nyti.ms/21FJMLg
Editorials, Op-Ed and Letters I OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR
The emotional response to the rightist populism sweeping the West is one of
protest and dismay. But ifthere is to be an effective fightback, there has to be a
cool analysis of what is happening, why and what can be done.
Politics is being reshaped, and this phenomenon is the same whether it is in the
United States or in Europe. At stake in the forthcoming elections in France and
Germany will be the future of Europe and, possibly, of European liberal
democracy.
This is a revolution that is partly economie, but mainly cultura!. The new coalition
differs from the old Reagan-Thatcher one, though it has some similarities. Back in
the 198os, working-class voters moved to the right because they felt that the left
didn't satisfy their aspirations for self-improvement. That was a cultura! issue, of
course; but it was primarily an economie one. lt was not so much that they felt
fearful as that they felt held back.
Today is different. The modus operandi of this populism is not to reason but to
roar. lt has at times an anarchie feel. Yet it has also mobilized a powerful media
behind it. lts supporters welcome the outrage their leaders provoke. This polarizes
public discourse and enhances their sense of belonging, so that even when they're
in government, they act as if they were excluded from it.
Meanwhile, traditional conservatives feel like strangers in their own land. They are
unsure whether to play along with the new order on the basis that it will soon pass
or to accept that this is a revolution aimed at overturning their authority and fight
it.
The causes of this movement are the scale, scope and speed of change. This is
occurring economically as jobs are displaced and communities fractured, and
culturally as the force of globalization moves the rest of the world closer and blurs
old boundaries of nation, race and culture.
The same dynamics are splintering the left, too. One element has aligned with the
right in revolt against globalization, but with business taking the place of migrants
as the chief evil. They agree with the right-wing populists about elites, though for
the left the elites are the wealthy, while for the right they're the liberals.
This leftist populism is a profound error. It has no chance ofmatching the populist
appeal of the right, and it dangerously validates some of the right's arguments. This
only fuels a cynicism that depresses support for the more progressive parts of the
left's program.
But this left tendency has gained from the seeming paralysis of the center. The
parties and politicians of the center bave become the managers of the status quo in
an era when people want change. So, the center - in both its center-right and
center-left camps - is marginalized, even despised.
The question is, will this be a temporary phase, perhaps linked to the aftermath of
the 2008 financial crisis and Sept. 11, and will politics soon revert to normal, or has
a new politica} age begun?
The party structures on both sides of the Atlantic bave their origins in the
Industria} Revolution and the debates engendered by that epoch about socialism
and capitalism, the market and the state. These parties bave endured because the
roots they put down were very strong. But now, there are different distinctions
than those simply of traditional right and left.
When I was growing up, people like my dad were conservative; and that meant
economically and socially. Today, many such voters don't fit that old stereotype.
They may be pro-private enterprise and conservative on economics in traditional
terms, but they're also socially liberal - in favor, for instance, of gay rights. And
there are those who used to vote left, but who are culturally illiberal and now don't
mind voting for parties of the wealthy.
Today, a distinction that often matters more than traditional right and left is open
vs. closed. The open-minded see globalization as an opportunity but one with
challenges that should be mitigated; the closed-minded see the outside world as a
threat. This distinction crosses traditional party lines and thus has no organizing
base, no natural channel for representation in electoral politics.
Politics in most European countries, and certainly in the United States, is still
dominated by the traditional parties of right and left. Under pressure from radical
populism, though, it's shifting more to the extremes, as we're seeing with the
British Labour Party and the French Socialists.
So this leaves a big space in the center. For the progressive wing of politics, the
correct strategy is to make the case for building a new coalition out from the
center. To do so, progressives need to acknowledge the genuine cultura! anxieties
of those voters who have deserted the cause of social progress: on immigration, the
threat of radical Islamism and the difference between being progressive and
appearing obsessive on issues like gender identity.
The center needs to develop a new policy agenda that shows people they will get
support to help them through the change that's happening around them. At the
heart of this has to be an alliance between those driving the technological
revolution, in Silicon Valley and elsewhere, and those responsible for public policy
in government. At present, there is a chasm of understanding between the two.
There will inevitably continue to be a negative impact on jobs from artificial
intelligence and big data, but the opportunities to change lives for the better
through technology are enormous.
Any new agenda has to focus on these opportunities for radical change in the way
that government and services like health care serve people. This must include how
we educate, skill and equip our work forces for the future; how we reform tax and
welfare systems to encourage more fair distribution of wealth; and how we
replenish our nations' infrastructures and invest in the communities most harmed
by trade and technology.
The politics of the progressive center has not died, but it needs reinventing and re-
energizing. For liberal democracy to survive and thrive, we must build a new
coalition that is popular, not populist.
Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook and Twitter
(@NYTOpinion), and sign upfor the Opinion Today newsletter.
Tony Blair, aformer leader ofthe Labour Party, was prime minister of Britain
from 1997 to 2007.
https://nyti.ms/211NzC2 J
Uber Uses Tech to Deceive Authorities
Worldwide
By MIKE ISAAC
SAN FRANCISCO - Uber has for years engaged in a worldwide program to deceive
the authorities in markets where its low-cost ride-hailing service was resisted by
law enforcement or, in some instances, had been banned.
The program, involving a tool called Greyball, uses data collected from the Uber
app and other techniques to identify and circumvent officials who were trying to
clamp down on the ride-hailing service. Uber used these methods to evade the
authorities in cities like Boston, Paris and Las Vegas, and in countries like
Australia, China and South Korea.
Greyball was part of a program called VTOS, short for "violation of terms of
service," which Uber created to root out people it thought were using or targeting
its service improperly. The program, including Greyball, began as early as 2014
and remains in use, predominantly outside the United States. Greyball was
approved by Uber's legai team.
Greyball and the VTOS program were described to The New York Times by four
current and former Uber employees, who also provided documents. The four spoke
on the condition of anonymity because the tools and their use are confidential and
because of fear of retaliation by Uber.
Uber's use of Greyball was recorded on video in late 2014, when Erich England, a
code enforcement inspector in Portland, Ore., tried to hail an Uber car downtown
in a sting operation against the company.
At the time, Uber had just started its ride-hailing service in Portland without
seeking permission from the city, which later declared the service illegal. To build a
case against the company, officers like Mr. England posed as riders, opening the
Uber app to hail a car and watching as miniature vehicles on the screen made their
way toward the potential fares.
But unknown to Mr. England and other authorities, some ofthe digitai cars they
saw in the app did not represent actual vehicles. And the Uber drivers they were
able to hail also quickly canceled. That was because Uber had tagged Mr. England
and his colleagues - essentially Greyballing them as city officials - based on data
collected from the app and in other ways. The company then served up a fake
version of the app, populated with ghost cars, to evade capture.
At a time when Uber is already under scrutiny for its boundary-pushing workplace
culture, its use of the Greyball tool underscores the lengths to which the company
will go to dominate its market. Uber has long flouted laws and regulations to gain
an edge against entrenched transportation providers, a modus operandi that has
helped propel it into more than 70 countries and to a valuation close to $70 billion.
Yet using its app to identify and sidestep the authorities where regulators said Uber
was breaking the law goes further toward skirting ethical lines - and, potentially,
legal ones. Some at Uber who knew of the VTOS program and how the Greyball
tool was being used were troubled by it.
In a statement, Uber said, "This program denies ride requests to users who are
violating our terms of service - whether that's people aiming to physically harm
drivers, competitors looking to disrupt our operations, or opponents who collude
with officials on secret 'stings' meant to entrap drivers."
The mayor of Portland, Ted Wheeler, said in a statement, "I am very concerned
that Uber may have purposefully worked to thwart the city's job to protect the
public."
Uber, which lets people hail rides using a smartphone app, operates multiple types
of services, including a luxury Black Car offering in which drivers are commercially
licensed. But an Uber service that many regulators have had problems with is the
lower-cost version, known in the United States as UberX.
UberX essentially lets people who have passed a background check and vehicle
inspection become Uber drivers quickly. In the past, many cities have banned the
service and declared it illegal.
After the authorities caught on to what was happening, Uber and local officials
often clashed. Uber has encountered legal problems over UberX in cities including
Austin, Tex., Philadelphia and Tampa, Fla., as well as internationally. Eventually,
agreements were reached under which regulators developed a legal framework for
the low-cost service.
That approach has been costly. Law enforcement officials in some cities bave
impounded vehicles or issued tickets to UberX drivers, with Uber generally picking
up those costs on the drivers' behalf. The company has estimated thousands of
dollars in lost revenue for every vehicle impounded and ticket received.
This is where the VfOS program and the use of the Greyball tool carne in. When
Uber moved into a new city, it appointed a general manager to lead the charge.
This person, using various technologies and techniques, would try to spot
enforcement officers.
In all, there were at least a dozen or so signifiers in the VfOS program that Uber
employees could use to assess whether users were regular new riders or probably
city officials.
If such clues did not confirm a user's identity, Uber employees would search social
media profiles and other information available online. If users were identified as
being linked to law enforcement, Uber Greyballed them by tagging them with a
small piece of code that read "Greyball" followed by a string of numbers.
When someone tagged this way called a car, Uber could scramble a set of ghost
cars in a fake version of the app for that person to see, or show that no cars were
available. Occasionally, ifa driver accidentally picked up someone tagged as an
officer, Uber called the driver with instructions to end the ride.
Uber employees said the practices and tools were born in part out of safety
measures meant to protect drivers in some countries. In France, India and Kenya,
for instance, taxi companies and workers targeted and attacked new Uber drivers.
"They're beating the cars with metal bats," the singer Courtney Love posted on
Twitter from an Uber car in Paris at a time of clashes between the company and
taxi drivers in 2015. Ms. Love said that protesters had ambushed her Uber ride and
had held her driver hostage. "This is France? I'm safer in Baghdad."
Uber has said it was also at risk from tactics used by taxi and limousine companies
in some markets. In Tampa, for instance, Uber cited collusion between the locai
transportation authority and taxi companies in fighting ride-hailing services.
But as Uber moved into new markets, its engineers saw that the same methods
could be used to evade law enforcement. Once the Greyball tool was put in piace
and tested, Uber engineers created a playbook with a list of tactics and distributed
it to generai managers in more than a dozen countries on five continents.
At least 50 people inside Uber knew about Greyball, and some had qualms about
whether it was ethical or legai. Greyball was approved by Uber's legai team, led by
Salle Yoo, the company's generai counsel. Ryan Graves, an early hire who became
senior vice president of global operations and a board member, was also aware of
the program.
Ms. Yoo and Mr. Graves did not respond to requests for comment.
Outside legai specialists said they were uncertain about the legality of the program.
Greyball could be considered a violation of the federai Computer Fraud and Abuse
Act, or possibly intentional obstruction of justice, depending on locai laws and
jurisdictions, said Peter Henning, a law professor at Wayne State University who
also writes for The New York Times.
"With any type of systematic thwarting of the law, you're flirting with disaster,"
Professor Henning said. "We all take our foot off the gas when we see the police car
at the intersection up ahead, and there's nothing wrong with that. But this goes far
beyond avoiding a speed trap."
On Friday, Marietje Schaake, a member of the European Parliament for the Dutch
Democratic Party in the Netherlands, wrote that she had written to the European
Commission asking, among other things, if it planned to investigate the legality of
Greyball.
To date, Greyballing has been effective. In Portland on that day in late 2014, Mr.
England, the enforcement officer, did not catch an Uber, according to locai reports.
And two weeks after Uber began dispatching drivers in Portland, the company
reached an agreement with locai officials that said that after a three-month
suspension, UberX would eventually be legally available in the city.
https://nyti.ms/21nl5b8 l
Visions of Trumptopia
By TllE EDD'ORIAL BOARD
But the plans he has put forward so far, and the few
actions he has taken, do not bode well. He proposes to
cut the health, disability andjob-training programs
that working people, as well as the poor, rely upon. Mr.
Trump's first big initiative was a draconian
immigration ban, now mired in court challenges, that's
caused problems for businesses from Silicon Valley to
Wisconsin. Mr. Trump proudly noted Tuesday that
one of the administration's first orders froze federa!
hiring, but he seems unaware that those jobs aren't
only in Washington, they're in communities across the
nation.
Again, that last bit sounds really nice. But it's hard to
escape the conclusion that, so far, the only working
people the president has really delivered far are
members of his own family, who are using his
presidency as a brand-building opportunity, and
former campaign officials, who are cashing in as
lobbyists in Washington.