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Case Flow
Executive summary
Market Analysis
Launching strategy
Implementation
Case Flow // 2
Executive summary
Executive summary Market analysis Launching strategy Implementation
Russian airline market is one of the most attractive to enter, despite the current economic crisis
LCC business model can succeed due to legislation changes in 2014
The best strategy is to enter the Russian domestic market in 2018 and launch international flights
in 2020
The company has to:
Attract a Russian investor, who would possess 51% share of the company ($100 mln)
Lease 8 Airbus 320 in 2018 and 8 in 2020-2025
Operate in 24 destinations (20 domestic + 4 international)
The revenue in 2018 will be at a level of $88,7 mln and in 2025 at $228,5 mln
Average EBITDA 15%
62,0%
Case Flow // 4
The Russian airline market is one of the most attractive
markets in the world
Executive summary Market analysis Launching strategy Implementation
The Russian airline market has been growing by 12% ... And it has one of the biggest
annually last 6 years growth rates in the world
Case Flow // 5
Source: Rosstat, Mintrans, ATO, IATO
The demand for air travel will steadily rise to 2025 due to the
economic growth and an air mobility increase
Executive summary Market analysis Launching strategy Implementation
Case Flow // 6
Source: ICAO, IATA, World Bank, IMF
Executive summary
Market Analysis
Launching strategy
Implementation
Case Flow // 7
For launch of a new LCC in Russia, an effective strategy with
distinguishing features was developed
Executive summary Market analysis Launching strategy Implementation
Case Flow // 8
Source: CaseFlow analysis
The strategy has to be implement in 3 stages
Executive summary Market analysis Launching strategy Implementation
4,2
0
Description
74% of domestic flights are made from Moscow The Ramport airport will provide tax and
airports operational advantages for a LCC
Domestic flights, % : Average turnaround time, minutes
55 55 55
~35-40
Regional flights
18%
Flights from
Airport service fee, $ per passenger
St-Petersburg 8%
3,69
214
2,38
138
1,93
112 ~1,59
74%
Flights from
Moscow
3 Paris 0,94
St.Petersburg
15%
Passenger traffic, mln PAX/year
2
Krasnodar Istanbul 0,6 85%
Rostov
Other cities
Ufa Berlin 0,5
Sochi
Kazan
Samara
I Min. Vody
II
Ekaterinburg
Chalyabinsk Global vision of the companys network: 2025
St.Petersburg Kaliningrad
0,5 - Kalinigrad About 24 directions (Russia + Europe)
5,5 7,0 8,5 About 66 flights per day
Profit per passenger, $ Hybrid Hub Model (with a sub-hub in Saint-
The biggest passenger traffic Petersburg)
Criteria Flight duration <3 hours 1) For more details see appendix 3
Few direct competitors 2) For the destination map see appendix 2
Case Flow // 11
Source: Rosstat, Case Materials, ATO, CaseFlow analysis
3
The company should buy 8 AC A320*
Executive summary Market analysis Launching strategy Implementation
Airbus A320* and Boeing 737-800 have the but AirFrance-KLM group may purchase
same operating efficiency Airbus A320 at the lower price
Operating cost, A320 price, Million $ per plane
$ per block hour per seat
34
-10-30%
32 93,9
93,9
~81
30 30
* - A320 with a Space Flex salon option with 186 seats. Available from 2015.
1) For more details see appendix
Case Flow // 12
Source: ICAO, aircraft producers web-sites, French press analysis, CaseFlow analysis
4
Transavia brand can succeed in Russian market, but the
name has to be changed
Executive summary Market analysis Launching strategy Implementation
Russian airline brands positioning is mostly national but the name of Transavia may be
1 2
and traditional, so the Transavia brand may stand out confused with a recognizable Russian
on the market airline brand Transaero1
Modern Transaero
New
LCC 67% match
Transavia
Consumer pool
National International Age: 18-45 20
(Russian) Income: 600-1300 USD mln
12
Target Audience mln
Age: 20-30 (millennials)
Income: 600-862 USD
1 The number of people booking flights online 3 Online distribution channels are the most
is steadily increasing cost-efficient
Type Type Channel Cost, %
People booking flights online in Russia, mln of price
Companys website 3-4
19,3 Direct
+13% Mobile app 3-4
11,2 Online
OTAs1 5-7
6,2 Indirect
2,9 Metasearches2: 5-7
Indirect Call centers, 7-13
2010 2014 2018 2025 Offline
&direct agencies, offices
The organizational structure of the new LCC will match ...and its efficiency will be comparable
European companies best practices with the European LCCs one
Management 17% 36
1 325
Other 42% 89
4
Case Flow // 15
Source: annual reports, companies websites, CaseFlow analysis
6
The company should apply the yield management practices
to maximize the revenue
Executive summary Market analysis Launching strategy Implementation
To maximize the revenue, 2 types of passengers Together, this 2 types of passengers form linear
have to be taken into account booking of the seats in an aircraft
Arrival curves by passenger type Combined booking pattern1
100% of Early Late P1, P2, Pn price buckets
seats Early Late
booked 180
Pn
150
Departure day
90 100
100
Booking starts
P1
100
8080
60 90
Late passengers 6565
30 45 45 55
55
25 25
05 25 10 25
Late passengers: 90
5
080 80
90 070 70
0 60 60
0 5050
0 4040 0 10
0 3030 20 10
20 10
0
0
Early passengers:
Tourists Businessmen
Days before the flight
Shift workers Urgent occasions
The following decisions should be implemented for every specific flight (destination, day and time):
Booking starts date (from 90 to 150 days)
Appropriate price buckets (P1, P2, Pn)
Adjust the system in real time if necessary
1) The diagram is for information has to be adapted for every flight
Case Flow // 16
Source: Press, Yield management in budget airlines Gerald L. Barlow, CaseFlow analysis
6
Launch of a new low-cost airline in Russia is financially
efficient
Executive summary Market analysis Launching strategy Implementation
In current conditions, launch of a new low-cost airline in Operational KPIs will be comparable with
Russia is cost-effective Russian FSCs
4,3
EBITDA margin, % Revenue, mln USD
220,9 228,5 3,7 0,6
199,9
178,6
159,0
96,4 140,4
21% 21% 22% 22%
88,7 8% 6%
12%
-53%
20
Russian FSC New Russian LCC
0
-20 RASK1 4,8 4,3
-40
2018 19 20 21 22 23 24 2025 Term.
per.
CASK1 4,4 3,7
NPV: 63 mln USD IRR- 35% DPBP 6 Y
* Aircraft acquired on lease at a rate of 4%, the term of the contract for 15 years, a down payment - 20% of the initial cost
Case Flow // 17
1. $ ents Source: ICAO, IATA, annual reports, CaseFlow analysis
Executive summary
Market Analysis
Launching strategy
Implementation
Case Flow // 18
In order to successfully launch low-cost carrier in Russia the
company should focus on three main stages
Executive summary Market analysis Launching strategy Implementation
Actions 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Stage 1 Flight preparation
Attracting investments
Case Flow // 20
Appendix
Case Flow // 22
Appendix 1: Legislation possibilities allow to launch low-cost
carriers in Russia effectively
Legal environment has been becoming more favorable for LCC since 2014, allowing to cut costs effectively
Description Possibilities
Catering must be provided only in 3+ hours flights Catering will be provided only in 3+ hours
flights
Price and amount of luggage are specified by airline
companies Luggage and food on board will be sold
Tickets may be non-refundable at additional prices
Positive
Infrastructure
In 2016, airport Ramport for low-cost carriers will be International pilots are allowed to be hired
constructed in Ramenskoye city (45 km from Moscow)
Catering must be provided only in 3+ hours
Reconstruction of airport in St. Petersburg for low-cost carriers flights
12 large Russian airports will be modernized, reconstructed or
developed for FIFA 2018
But there are still some unbeneficial limitations. Though, they may be overcome
Description Solution
8 new aircrafts have to be leased (at 20%
- At least 8 planes are required for regular flights
down payment +4% annual interest)
Legislation
Case Flow // 23
Source: Air Industry legislation, CaseFlow analysis
Appendix 2: Ramport Airport information
The new airport Rapmport is under Ramport will be modern, fully The first flight is planned in 2016
construction in Ramenskoye equipped low-cost airport with and in 2021 the airport will
(Moscow region) developed aeronautic infrastructure reach its projected capacity
Sheremetyevo Mln. of passengers
14
12
10
8
Moscow 6
4
2 fully equipped modern terminal 2
with total surface 60 000 m3
Vnukovo Ramport 5,5 km runaway 0
Total surface of airport infrastructure 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
240 000 m3 Terminal 2
Domodedovo Announced as a Low-Cost airport Terminal 1
Along with the main airport activities the auxiliary infrastructure will be developed:
Sub-urban train Reconstruction of the high- Construction of 2 high-rise Construction of the
Aeroexpress from way M-5 Ural: extension parking-places modern hotel facilities
Kazansky station up to 4 lanes
Case Flow // 24
Source: Ramport airport website, press, CaseFlow analysis
Appendix 3: Route map development
Murmansk
2018
Kaliningrad Network at the company launch
St.-Peterburg
Arkhangelsk
Berlin
2020
Paris Europe network expanding
Moscow
Prague
Istanbul
Perm
2025
Kazan
Russian network expending
Ekaterinburg
Rostov- Saratov Samara
on-Don Ufa
Chelyabinsk
Krasnodar
Sochi
Astrakhan
Mineralnye-
Vody
Makhachkala
Main Hub Sub Hub Destination
Case Flow // 25
Source: FSSS, ATO, annual reports, CaseFlow analysis * - the proposed network in 2025Y is approximate, should be adjusted in real time
Appendix 4: Low-Cost potential. Domestic market sizing in
Russia
LCC may potentially attract 23,4 million passengers that currently travel by FSC and railways
Total FSC domestic market, mln pass. Total railway market, mln pass.
39 108,6
in European part of Russia in 1st and 2nd class
Potential LCC
24,2 market structure 28,2
in economy class age of the passengers 18 45 years
21,7 24% 11,9
salary of the passengers from salary of the passengers from
35 000 RUR to 75 000 RUR 35 000 RUR to 75 000 RUR
19,5 76% 5,8
age of the passengers 18 45 years
17,6
Total potential domestic LCC market in Russia in 2015, mln. pass./year : 23,4
Case Flow // 26
Source: Rosstat, Case materials, CaseFlow analysis
Appendix 5: Potential to minimize the costs
Cost of the Reduction of the purchased aircrafts price due to Costs can be
aircraft and the possibility AirFrance-KLM group 0,51 -37% achieved by
0,32
insurance Discount due to the acquisition of similar aircrafts reducing airport
Cost reduction of repairs due to the aircraft charges and the
-3%
MRO unification and shorter period of use (max 8 years) 0,32 0,31 same type of fleet
Strategy: S1 Basic S2
See the details of the strategies S1, S2, S3, S4 further in the appendix S1, S2, S3, S4
Case Flow // 28
Source: CaseFlow analysis
Appendix 7: List of potential investors
RENOVA Metallurgy
Efficient investments Energy and mining
~500 Engineering Vertical diversification
Diversification
Airport business
Case Flow // 29
Source: annual reports, companies web-sites, CaseFlow analysis
Appendix 8: The best time to enter the market is Mach/April -
to test the business model and be ready for the season
0,0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Case Flow // 30
Source: ICAO, annual reports, Mintrans, Air Industry legislation, CaseFlow analysis
Appendix 9: Aircraft technical characteristics
Airbus Boeing
Moscow Kazan 705 960 514 645 585 485 1:30 70 163 32 7
Moscow Kaliningrad 701 520 511 408 529 877 1:55 80 95 38,5 9
Moscow Chelyabinsk 638 250 465 284 474 772 2:25 102 155 43,5 7
Saint
Kaliningrad 366 300 250 905 275 110 1:40 85 102 34,5 3
Petersburg