Bulletinofthe SeismologicalSocietyofAmerica,Vol.69,No.6, pp.

1819-1840, December1979

SOURCE MECHANISM AND AFTERSHOCK STUDY OF THE COLIMA,

MEXICO EARTHQUAKE OF JANUARY 30, 1973

BY A. REYES, J. N. BRUNE, AND CINNA LOMNITZ

ABSTRACT
The Colima earthquake (magnitude 7.5) occurred just inland from the Middle
America Trench, 110 km south of the Volcan de Colima and 160 km southeast
of Manzanillo, Colima, Mexico. Damage at several cities and towns was severe,
30 people were killed, and hundreds were injured. Four days after the earth-
quake, a six-station portable seismograph array was set up in the epicentral
area as part of a cooperative program between UCSD, the University of Mexico,
and the Mexican Federal Power Commission. From about 330 aftersh0cks
recorded in the following 2 weeks, accurate locations were obtained for 50.
One large aftershock had a magnitude of 6.2, the others range in local magnitude
from 1.5 to 4.5. The locations outline a region approximately 90 km long and 60
km wide, in nearly the same location as the aftershock zone inferred by Kelleher
et al. (1973) for the 1941 earthquake. The focal depth of the aftershocks
(ranging from 2 to 30 km) and the fault-plane solutions for the main event
indicated a shallow dipping thrust plane (about 30). The seismic moment
estimated from mantle rayleigh waves is 3 x 102~ dyne-cm. The pattern of
aftershocks was used to estimate the source dimensions. From the moment and
source dimensions the average slip was estimated to be about 1.4 m, corre-
sponding to a stress drop of about 8 bars.
The occurrence of this earthquake is discussed in terms of the general
seismicity of the Middle America Trench, the convergence rate predicted by
plate tectonics, and the use of seismic gap theory for earthquake prediction.
The fact that this earthquake may have been in the zone of the 1941 earthquake
rather than in the adjacent seismic gap, suggests that caution must be taken in
using seismic gap theory to predict earthquakes in the region. It further suggests
that in the adjacent seismic gap a large earthquake may be eminent, and thus
the gap may be an important area for deploying seismic instruments.

INTRODUCTION
On January 30, 1973 at 21:01:12.52 GMT an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 (Ms),
referred to as the Colima earthquake occurred along the Middle America Trench
160 km southeast of the city of ManzaniUo, Colima, Mexico (Figure 1). Several cities
and towns were severely damaged, with a loss of approximately 30 lives. The town
of Tecoman, 100 km northwest of the main epicentral area, was severely damaged,
most likely due to the local soil amplification. The town of Playa Azul, 100 km to
the southeast, did not sustain any significant damage. Observations from the air
showed a large number of landslides along the coast from Playa Azul to Coalcoman,
indicating intense shaking.
This earthquake offered the first opportunity to carry out an aftershock and
source mechanism study of a major earthquake in the Middle America Trench. In
this paper we report our studies of aftershock distribution and estimates of source
parameters for the earthquake.
Because of the complex structure in this region, related to the subduction zone
created by the convergence of the North American and Cocos plates, and because
of the poor azimuthal coverage of seismic stations, large systematic errors in
teleseismic locations of major earthquakes along the trench could be present. In this
1819
1820 A. REYES, J. N. BRUNE, AND CINNA LOMNITZ

study we have compared teleseismic locations of the main shock and one major
aftershock with our locations based on local array recordings.
Tectonic activity along the Middle America Trench is related to the subduction
of the Cocos plate beneath the American plate. Molnar and Sykes (1969), using the
length of the dipping seismic zone, estimate that rates of underthrusting in this
region range from 1.5 to 4 cm/yr depending on whether subduction started 10 m.y.
or 4 m.y. ago. Also, by summing moments estimated from surface-wave magnitudes,
they estimated an average rate of underthrusting of 3.2 cm/yr between 1907 and
1968. Davies and Brune (1971), using data from Duda's catalog of large earthquakes
between 1897 and 1964 and the relationship of 100-sec mantle-wave magnitude to
seismic moment (Brune and Engen, 1969), estimated an average rate of underthrust-
ing of 11 cm/yr [this rate of underthrusting is higher than that of Molnar and Sykes
because it included a number of large earthquakes which occurred around the turn
of the century. It is somewhat uncertain because of the uncertainty in the magnitude
of the earlier events (Kanamori and Abe, 1979)]. Recent study of worldwide plate
motions by Minster et al. (1974) has indicated a convergence of 5.6 cm/yr between
the Cocos and North American plates along the direction of N38E, nearly perpen-
dicular to the coast.
The seismicity and tectonics of this region are of special interest because of the
peculiar nature of the tectonic features associated with the subduction. Although
the convergence rate is high, the continental margin appears to be relatively
undeformed, in striking contrast to other circum-Pacific subduction zones such as
those in South America and in Japan. Furthermore, this region is apparently the
only example of a subduction zone where the line of andesitic volcanoes landward
of the oceanic trench is not approximately parallel to the coast (the Mexican
volcanic belt extends from near the Pacific coast at its northwest end to near the
Gulf coast at its southeast end).
F I E L D PROGRAM

Two days after the earthquake, as part of a cooperative program between the
National University of Mexico (UNAM), the Federal Power Commission (CFE),
and the University of California at San Diego (UCSD), six portable high-gain
seismograph stations were deployed in the epicentral region to study aftershocks.
Prior to deployment of the aftershock array, a preliminary location of the main
event and two of its large aftershocks was obtained, based on the relative arrival
times between the Cerro Gordo Guanajuato (LCG) and Tacubaya (TAC) stations,
and the S - P times recorded at TAC. The preliminary locations wereused in planning
the temporary array location and geometry.
Stations were strategically located to provide good epicenter and depth control.
The stations were on granitic outcrops whenever possible in order to reduce
background noise and noise amplification by sediments. The array consisted of
three stations in an approximate 200-kin triangle, and three stations in an inner
triangle approximately 40 km in dimension (Figure 1). The stations of the inner
array were moved at various times to improve depth control and reduce noise;
however, the inaccessibility of the region made it impossible to install stations
directly in the area of highest aftershock activity (southeast of the LTA station).
Four days after the earthquake, we had the portable array in full operation. Table
1 lists the station coordinates and the recording dates. The array was in operation
from February 1 to February 12, 1973. The station coordinates were obtained from
topographic maps and from 1:100,000 aeronavigation maps. The estimated error in
their location is +1 km.
 STUDY OF THE COLIMA, MEXICO EARTHQUAKE, JANUARY 30, 1973 1821

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1822 A. REYES, J. N. BRUNE~ AND CINNA LOMNITZ

INSTRUMENTATION
T h e i n s t r u m e n t s used in this s t u d y were K i n e m e t r i c s P S - I ( A ) seismic recording
s y s t e m s similar to those described b y P r o t h e r o and B r u n e {1971}. Recording was on
s m o k e d paper. T h e recording d r u m speed was 1 m m / s e c . T h e t e m p e r a t u r e - c o m p e n -
sated crystal control clock provided a 0.5-sec duration t i m e m a r k each 20 sec, and
a 1-sec d u r a t i o n t i m e m a r k e a c h 60 sec. T h e s e i s m o m e t e r s were of the R a n g e r t y p e
with 1 sec free period. T h e magnification curve given in Figure 2 was used in this
study. T h e m a x i m u m possible magnification was a b o u t 1.7 106 at 2.5 Hz and a b o u t
5.7 l0 s at 10 Hz. T h e a t t e n u a t i o n setti~igs of the i n s t r u m e n t s at each individual
recording site were selected for a b a c k g r o u n d noise trace a m p l i t u d e of a b o u t 0.5
m m . T h e m i n i m u m recordable m a g n i t u d e ranged f r o m a b o u t 0 at 0 km, to a b o u t 2
at 160 km. T h e m a i n sources of noise in this s t u d y were continuous b a c k g r o u n d
microseism activity and, occasionally, noise g e n e r a t e d b y d a y t i m e winds.
Accurate W W V B and W W V t i m e corrections were available for all the stations
during m o s t of the recording time. T h e precision in reading the t i m e correction was
a b o u t 0.05 sec.

TABLE 1
G E O G R A P H I C A L C O O R D I N A T E S OF T H E H I G H - G A I N S E I S M O G R A P H
STATIONS T A K E N F R O M T O P O G R A P H I C M A P S A N D F R O M 1:100,000
AERONAVIGATION MAPS*
Station
Station Lat.(N) Long. (W) Date
Corrections
AQU 18,36.00 103,30.50 Feb. 1-5 1973 -0.1
LTA 18,30.00 103,35.00 Feb. 5-6 1973 -0.1
LPT 18,33.10 103,40.00 Feb. 6-12 1973 -0.1
CRT 18,45.00 103,39.00 Feb. 9-12 1973 -0.1
COA 18,47.00 103, 9.00 Feb. 2-12 1973 0.0
CHD 19,17.50 104,19.50 Feb. 1-8 1973 -0.1
TFG 18, 3.00 102,19.50 Feb. 4-10 1973 -0.3
MOC 18, 3.00 102,12.50 Feb. 1-4 1973 -0.3
APZ 19, 6.60 102,21.50 Feb. 2-12 1973 -0.2
*The estimated error in their location is _1 km.

DATA
During the 10 days of simultaneous recording at most stations (February 2-12,
1973) a total of 330 events was recorded. Arrival times of the P and S phases were
read using a 6 eyeglass, and a scale with marks each 0.1 ram. The recorded P and
S phases are, in general, characterized by sharp onsets. The absolute accuracy in
timing the onset was about -+_0.2sec for the P phase and about +0.4 sec for the S
phase. The precision in reading times is about 0.1 sec.
The high amplitude of the P-wave coda made it difficult to identify the onset of
the S phase for larger events at short epicentral distances. At longer distances, the
onset of the S phase was easily recognized. A value for the ratio Vp/Vs of 1.77 was
estimated from the slope of a plot of the S-arrival time versus the P-arrival time
(Wadati diagram, Figure 3).
DETERMINATION OF STATION CORRECTIONS USING OFFSHORE EXPLOSIONS
O n July 16 and 17 two underwater explosions (1 and 2 tons, respectively) were
fired off the coast of Mexico to make a quantitative estimate of travel times and
 STUDY OF THE COLIMA, MEXICO EARTHQUAKE~ JANUARY 30, 1973 1823

station corrections in the aftershock region, and to improve locations of the after-
shocks. The shots were fired by the crew aboard the Kana Keoki research vessel of
the University of Hawaii under funding provided by the National Science Founda-
tion.
The location of the shots is shown in Figure 4. The 1-ton (l-T) explosion was fired
about 10 km from the coast, near the region where the highest aftershock activity
was observed. The 2-ton (2-T) shot was feed near the site of the magnitude 6.2
aftershock. The location and origin times of the shots are given in Table 2. Recording
sites, instruments, and filters were the same as during the aftershock sequence.

T sec)
10 5 2.5 ,5 .25 .I
lOS- I ~ I I I ll~ I I I I I II1' I I I I I I II I I 1 I I I II

10 7

10~
E
O
-i,m

10~"
O
o~

o~

(J

103

10z

% I 1 I ] Ill I I I I I Ill I I I ] I ]i I I I I I I I
0.01 0.I I I0 I00

Frequency (Hz)
Fro. 2. Magnification curve for the seismograph system used in this study. Actual magnifications used
correspond to this curve with attenuations from -12 dB to - 4 8 dB.

The station corrections determined for model A (Figure 5) from the calibration
shots were -1.03 for CHD and -0.32 for MOC. With these corrections, relocation of
the calibration explosions gave epicentral relocations within ___4 km and depth
relocations within ___3km, relative to the true locations.

LOCATION OF THE AFTERSHOCKS

The origin times, hypocentral locations, and local magnitudes for 50 of the 330
events recorded from February 2-12, 1973 were obtained. The model used for
hypocentral calculations (Figure 5) has a layered crust with velocities linearly
increasing from 5.8 km/sec at the surface to 6.3 km/sec at 25 km depth, and a 5-km
1824 A. REYES, J. N. BRUNE, AND CINNA LOMNITZ

thick layer with a 6.8-km/sec velocity over an upper mantle velocity of 8 km/sec.
Station corrections were determined as discussed in the previous section. The shear-
wave velocity was fixed by the ratio V p / V s = 1.77 obtained from the Wadati
diagram {Figure 3). Hypocentral solutions were obtained using the computer pro-
gram HYPO 71 (Lee and Lahr, 1972, modified by Buland, 1978). Events recorded at
only three stations, with one S - P time, were accepted for location, but in this case
the focal depths are poorly constrained, and in some cases were fixed to 25 km.
These events were not used in the cross-section plots {Figures 7 and 8). Most of the
events had more station arrivals and more S - P observations.
The distribution of the local aftershocks is shown in Figure 4. Hypocentral
solutions with rms residuals <0.5 sec were judged to be good and only these are
plotted in Figures 7 and 8. S-wave residuals were always less than 1.5 sec.

f i i I i i ~ ~ I i i i i

RELATIVE ARRIVAL TIMES

(o- = 0 . 4 sec)
/nY~ /
2-0
t,-tp= 1.77tp / ~
"U
el) /- f
v
tO / ./
/./
,.I-- /:./
<3 S : .:/"
v IO
5O /..':: ~..."
../.'-: ~
./. /

z/ "~':/
/~" I I i I i [ I i I I I I I
O0 10 20 30

a t p (sec)
FIG. 3. Wadati diagram obtained from the relative S-P times [8(Ats)] versus the relative P-arrival
times (htp) {with reference to the P time at the COA station). T h e linear correlation of the relative times
is given by (hts) = 0.8 Atp +_ 4.0 (sec). This corresponds to a V p / V s ratio of 1.77 from which we get a
Poisson's ratio of op = 0.28. All the data points fall within the 3a S.D. of the observations. T h e data points
are from 50 events located in this study.

DISCUSSION OF THE AFTERSHOCK LOCATIONS

The pattern of epicenters (Figure 4) shows a cluster of events at the southeas~
end of the aftershock region (at a depth of about 30 kin). The distribution of the
aftershocks is consistent with the distribution of S-P times at the COA station
(Figure 6), which was in operation most of the recording time and recorded m a n y
more small events than could be located. This indicates that the distribution of
these smaller events was about the same as for the larger, located events.
The pattern of foci in cross section, shown in Figure' 7 (profile a-a'), suggests an
alignment of hypocenters along a dipping plane (~30 ) which does not intersect the
trench axis. Profile b-b' (Figure 8) shows a more complex pattern of foci, possibly a
result of two dipping planes at 30 and 15 , the shallower one intersecting the
surface closer to the trench axis.
 STUDY OF THE COLIMA, MEXICO EARTHQUAKE, JANUARY 30, 1973 1825

104 I05 '102

CHD
Epicenters of the Aftershocks
of the January 50, 1973
Coli ma Earthquake
APZ

'..., "';,:. / 19

// .~ 2-T 2 ton shot

~" ~ ~'x. CRT / COh / 1-T 1ton shot
\\ j( , ,
O/,A/AQU / o z- z.9
0 4- 4.9

~ x / }' ~ a .. =0 6- 6.9
\
~,/
"~ :,,,.7
:::Q
o L~o
o
o
& s,o,,o

18

FIG. 4. Epicenter distribution of the Colima earthquake aftershocks, a-a' and b-b' correspond to the
cross sections shown in Figures 7 and 8. The solid circ[e near the trench is for an event discussed in the
text.

TABLE 2
HYPOCENTRAL COORDINATES FOR THE 1 - T o N AND 2-
TON EXPLOSIONS FIRED OFFSHORE FOR TRAVEL-TIME
CALIBRATION
1-Ton 2-Ton

Date July 16, 1974 July 17, 1974

Origin time 07:58:35.01UTC 03:59:07.98UTC
Latitude 18009.5' _ 1 km 18025.05' _ 1 km
Longitude 10319.4+_ 1 km 103o40.0' _+ 1 km
Depth 85 m. 85 m.
Water depth 600 m. 805 m.

LOCATION OF MAJOR AFTERSHOCK

T h e m a j o r a f t e r s h o c k of F e b r u a r y 10, 1973 was a c c u r a t e l y l o c a t e d w i t h f o u r
s t a t i o n s ( L P T , COA, T F G , A P Z ) . T h e e p i c e n t e r s o l u t i o n is well c o n s t r a i n e d b y t h e
close s t a t i o n L P T (A = 18 km). T h e s h a l l o w d e p t h (~11 k m ) , a l t h o u g h n o t well
c o n s t r a i n e d b e c a u s e t h e e p i c e n t e r is o u t s i d e t h e a r r a y , is c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e
o b s e r v e d h i g h a m p l i t u d e of 10-sec p e r i o d R a y l e i g h w a v e s r e c o r d e d a t M a z a t l a n
(MAZ), 5.4 to t h e n o r t h w e s t .
1826 A. REYES, J. N. BRUNE, AND CINNA LOMNITZ

T h e locations obtained with the local a r r a y are c o m p a r e d with the location given
b y N O A A in T a b l e 3. T h e solution given b y N O A A is 54 k m along an a z i m u t h of
8.8 n o r t h w e s t of t h e location which we obtained. C o m p l e x structure and lack of
n e a r b y stations are m o s t likely the reasons for this mislocation b y NOAA.

Km / sec
2 4 6 8
0

Km [--

4O

6o
Fro. 5. Velocity model used for location of earthquakes in this study.

DISTRIBUTION OF S - P TIMES
RECORDED AT COA

10o_~--

I I_ I
I m
5 10 !5 20 25
S - P time
FIG. 6. Distribution of number of events versus S-P times recorded at the COA station (120 hr of
recording time).

LOCATION OF TRENCH EVENT OUTSIDE ARRAY

T h e e v e n t located n e a r the t r e n c h (coda m a g n i t u d e 3.1) at 180.6'; 104o0.4 ' (solid
dot, Figure 4) is interesting because it falls outside the region of the a f t e r s h o c k (in
fact, it m a y n o t h a v e b e e n an aftershock). T h i s e v e n t shows well-developed refracted
arrivals at m o s t of the stations and its signature on t h e records are clearly different
 STUDY OF THE COLIMA~ MEXICO EARTI-IQUAKE~ JANUARY 30, 1973 1827

from the rest of the sequence. This event was located graphically using travel times
from model A and assumed focal depths ranging from 1 to 30 km, in 5-km steps. The
origin time was constrained using the t~ - tp observation at COA {14.5 sec) and the
ratio of compressional to shear velocity of 1.77 obtained from the Wadati diagram
(Figure 3). An assumed focal depth of 1 km, although giving significantly lower
residuals than deeper depths, is probably not very reliable because the station is
outside the array and because the assumed crustal structure is probably not
appropriate for the trench region.
Another location was obtained using an apparent phase velocity of 8 km/sec
across the array and computing the azimuths of the incoming wave (assumed plane}
with respect to a reference station (TFG). The estimated errors in the locations for

I
~,Two Ton Shot a
a
o I

10
Depth
(kin)
o 0o 20
Hypocenters of the Aftershocks
Projected Along /he Profile o-~'
30

km

2'0 4'0 6'0 e' 0 100

' 120
'
Distance from the Trench Axis

FIG. 7. Cross section showing hypocenters projected into the vertical plane a-a' in Figure 5 normal to
the trench.

the resulting rms residual of 0.55 sec are ___10km on the NW-SE and --_5 km in the
SW-NE directions, respectively. The result agreed closely with the solution based
on model A.

LOCATION OF THE 1973 COLIMA EARTHQUAKERELATIVE TO THE

1941 COLIMAEARTHQUAKE
The epicenter of the 1973 Colima earthquake was estimated by the ISC (Inter-
national Seismological.Center) and by the USGS (Earthquake Data Reports, EDR),
from P-wave arrivals recorded at about 400 stations covering an azimuthal range
from 320 to 145 (Table 3). The two estimates agree within the estimated error
bounds (___4km) and are both plotted in Figure 1. Lomnitz (1977), using a distance
residual algorithm, obtained an epicenter solution using P-wave arrivals at 254
1828 A. R E Y E S , J. N. B R U N E , AND CINNA LOMNITZ

stations (distributed with approximately the same azimuthal range). His solution is
also plotted in Figure 1. It is just 10 kin n o r t h of the zone of highest activity, and for
this reason we suggest t h a t it is probably the better estimate of the epicenter. T h e
locations of the m a j o r aftershock (February 10) as reported in the E D R and ISC
bulletins, and the corresponding location for t h a t event obtained in this s t u d y (using
arrivals from local portable stations) are also shown.

~One Ton Shot

/ ~0
b,

~Q~o 10
Depth

8 o 0 20
(km)

Hypocenters of the Aftershocks X /

Projected Along the Profile b-b'
:30

0 20 40 60 80 tO0
Distance from the Trench Axis

FIG. 8. Cross section showing hypocenters projected into the vertical plane b-b' in Figure 5 normal to
the trench.

TABLE 3
HYPOCENTRAL ESTIMATES FOR THE COLIMA EARTHQUAKE AND ITS
MAJOR AFTERSHOCK
Depth Origin
Lat. (deg.) Long.(deg.) (km) Time

Main Shock Jan. 30, 1973

USGS (EDR) 18.481 102.996 43 21a01m12.52~
ISS 18.53 102.93 48 21h01m 13.8~
Lomnitz 18.39 103.21 32 21h01m 18.0x

Aftershock
Feb. 10, 1973
USGS (EDR) 18.886 103.545 Normal Ilh53 27.5~
TM

ISS 18.78 103.79 42 11h53m29.0~

Portable array 18.41 103.63 11 11h53m28.F

T h e aftershock locations, the relative locations of the main shock and affershock,
and Lomnitz (1977) location together suggest t h a t the Colima e a r t h q u a k e rupture
began to the southeast (near the region of high-aftershock activity), and r u p t u r e d to
the northwest. If this interpretation is accepted, ISC and E D R epicenter estimates
for the main shock appear to be in error a b o u t at an azimuth of a b o u t 40 .
 STUDY OF THE COLIMA, MEXICO EARTHQUAKE, JANUARY 30, 1973 1829

COMPARISON WITH SEISMIC GAP THEORY

The location of the aftershock region for the 1973 earthquake relative to that for
the 1941 earthquake may have an important bearing on the use of seismic gap
theory to predict earthquakes in this region. Kelleher et al. {1973) suggested that
the region southeast of the Colima earthquake was a seismic gap. This suggestion
was based on the locations of aftershocks of an earthquake of magnitude 7.7 on
April 15, 1941 near Colima, and an earthquake of magnitude 7.9 on June 7, 1911,
(see note added in proof) in the region southeast of Colima, together with an
estimated recurrence time of 50 yr or less for major earthquakes along the trench.
Thus, the relative location of the main aftershock of the 1941 earthquake (April 28,
M = 7.5), as well as the relative locations of the main events, are important for
testing the seismic gap concept in this region.
If we assume the aftershock zones inferred by Kelleher et al. for the 1941 event is
correct, then we must conclude that the 1973 Colima earthquake ruptured the same
region as the 1941 earthquake without a rupture occurring in the adjacent seismic
gap (which may have ruptured in 1911). This conclusion is not changed if we assume
the same error in location applies to Kelleher's epicenters as to the EDR and ISC
locations of the 1973 earthquake. This would indicate that the use of simple seismic
gap theory to predict earthquakes in this region is not very reliable, given our
present level of understanding. Nevertheless, it emphasizes that the rupture zone of'
the 1911 earthquake (see note added in proof) may represent one of the seismic
gaps most likely to have a large earthquake in the near future. The possibility of
instrumenting this region in hopes of recording precursors to the next large earth-
quake should be considered.
MAGNITUDES OF AFTERSHOCKS
The major aftershock of February 10, 1973 was recorded by the Wood Anderson
torsion seismographs installed in Tacubaya (TAC), Mexico City and thus the
Richter magnitude could be estimated for it. The maximum peak-to-peak trace
amplitudes, and corresponding magnitudes, for this and the main event are

Jan. 30, 1973 M Feb. 10, 1973 M

N - S comp. Off scale >6.9 39 mm 6.0
E - W comp. Off scale >6.9 109 mm 6.4
Average 6.2

The magnitude of the February 10, 1973 event was used to set up a magnitude
reference for smaller aftershocks as follows:
A log-log plot (Figure 9) of the amplitudes of the seismic coda (train of scattered
waves arriving after the S wave) versus time, tc {measured from the onset of the P
wave), was obtained for the major aftershock and smaller aftershocks at the station
CDA. As seen in this figure, the slope of the coda amplitude envelope is approxi-
mately the same for each individual event.
A least-squares fit to the data gives the following relationship for the amplitude
versus coda time (tc) for the February 10 aftershock: log A = 7.5 to 2.82 log tc. The
magnitude difference of a particular event with respect to the February 10 aftershock
is estimated as AM = log A - Log Ac, where Ac is the coda amplitude of the event
at the time tc. The calculated magnitude is then Mc = 6.2 + AM. Coda magnitudes,
Mc, for 330 aftershocks recorded during 96 hr recording time at the COA station
were obtained using this relationship. The magnitudes range from 1 to 6.2.
1830 A. R E Y E S , J. N. B R U N E , A N D C I N N A L O M N I T Z

105~ -

10,197:5
104

I ~,,mb= 5.6 (BRK)

10 3 =- \ ML = 6.1 (Wood-Anderson TAC)

E Magnitude Scale
E
v
from Seismic Coda
102
~

<
E

101

1F
.mb (APZ a t - 4 2 d b )

I
I I I I,iIII I I I I~LIII
50 iO0 500 iO00

t (sec)
Arrival time of the coda from
the onset of the P-wave.
FIG. 9. Amplitude data used for Setting up the magnitude scale based on the seismic coda.

The cumulative number versus magnitude plot for the total series (Figure 10),
shows a change in slope near magnitude 4.2. T he apparent b value (slope on a log-
log plot) for magnitudes smaller than 4.2 is 0.51, whereas for larger values it is 0.97.
T h e aftershock sequence had 24 events with magnitude greater than 4 during the 96
h/r of recording time.
FAULT-PLANE SOLUTION
Th e fault-plane solution for the Colima earthquake and its aftershock (February
10, 1973, mb = 6.1), were obtained from the first-motion P-wave data. Approximately
45 records were obtained from the Mexican Seismic Network operated by the
 STUDY OF THE COLIMA, MEXICO EARTHQUAKE, JANUARY 30, 1973 1831
I oo 0

loc
0.51
0.51

Nc

IC
9-
8-

7- FEB. 02-09/73
t FEB. 02 - 11/73 1
6-
5-
4.

3-

2-

i i i i i ,| i i i t i ,i v , i
2 3 4 5 6 7 I 2 3 4 5 6 7
M M
Fro. 10. Frequency versus magnitude (number of events with magnitude equal to or greater than the
ordinate number) plotted for the aftershock sequence. The plot to the left is from February 2-9, 1973.
The one to the right is from February 2-11, 1973.

Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM; the Gulf of California seismic array operated by the
Centro de Investigacion Cientifica y Educacion Superior de Ensenada (CICESE)
(Brune et al., 1976); and the long-period World Wide Standardized Seismograph
Network (WWSSN). P-wave data first motion were plotted on an equal area
1832 A. REYES, J. N. BRUNE, AND CINNA LOMNITZ

projection of the focal sphere by the use of the Hodgson and Storey (1953) and
Hodgson and Allen (1954) tables (Figures 11 and 12).
The distribution of P-wave first motions is that characteristic of thrust faulting,
i.e., compression at large distances and dilatation at relatively short epicentral
distances. However, the azimuthal coverage is relatively poor. It is best to the north
and east, with a few observations to the north-northwest, and none to the west.
This coverage is typical for earthquakes along the Middle America Trench.

J AN 30 1973
COLiMA EARTHQUAKE

Compressions
0 Dilatations

32 o

TUC
M ALQ

" MNZ
0
SHA
ATL
COL
TA

MER q
VCT
KIP
W
NAT CAR
oSHP LP -<
LPB

o
~Oo

S
FIG. 11. P-wave fault-plane solutions for the Colima earthquake (equal area projection of first-motion
polarities on the focal sphere).

The data of the main event are plotted in Figure 11. A range of possible solutions
is shown. One nodal plane has a strike in the range 330 to 345 , with a 30 dip
[constrained by the readings at MNZ (O) and LAX (Q)]. The auxiliary nodal plane
is inferred 'to be the fault plane on the basis of the known tectonic pattern of
underthrusting of the North American plate by the Cocos plate. The auxiliary plane,
associated with the slip vector on the fault plane, although less well determined,
 STUDY OF THE COLIMA, MEXICO EARTHQUAKE, JANUARY 30, 1973 1833

indicates primarily thrust faulting, with a possibility of some amount of associated

strike-slip.
Th e mantle Rayleigh-wave radiation pattern (discussed later, Figure 14) has a
maximum at an azimuth of about 25 , whereas the theoretical maximum for the
pure dip-slip motion solution would strike at an azimuth of about 55 to 65 . This
suggests that there was a significant right lateral component to the net average slip.
Th e two sets of data can be approximately reconciled by the fault-plane solution

FEB - I0 - 1973
MAJOR AFTERSHOCK
Compressions
0 Dilatations
60

40

55

ALQ
T~C JCT
T MNZ

'" LoN \\
COL TACt

/ SJG
BNp
.cA yV E
n BOG LPS
LPB
~ARE

S
FIG. 12. P-wave fault-plane solutions for the major aftershock of February 10, 1973.

given in Table 4. An alternative is that the overall rupture, as indicated by the

mantle wave radiation, may not have had exactly the same orientation.
Th e P-wave first-motion data for the February 10, 1973 major aftershock are
shown in Figure 12. T he data suggest that the faulting for this aftershock was
essentially the same as for the main shock. T h e orientation of the nodal plane with
strike 345 with a 30 dip is well constrained by the first-motion data at MNZ (),
LAX (0), and K I P (O). For the auxiliary plane a range of solutions is shown. T he
1834 A. REYES, J. N. BRUNE, AND CINNA LOMNITZ

range of strike for the auxiliary plane is from 305 to 345 with corresponding dip
from 55 to 60 . T h e first motions from the portable local station COA (C)), and
from the distant stations U N M (Q), T A C (O), T U C (O), and G U M (0) constrain
the dip of the auxiliary plane to about 60 . A pure t h r u s t fault or a t h r u s t f a u l t with
a strike-slip c o m p o n e n t similar to t h a t indicated by the mantle Rayleigh-wave
radiation p a t t e r n for the main shock satisfy the data, and is our preferred solution,
T a b l e 5.
L O N G - P E R I O D R A D I A T I O N P A T T E R N AND SEISMIC M O M E N T

T o determine the seismic m o m e n t of the Colima earthquake, we have used the

expressions for the far-field vertical c o m p o n e n t of the ground displacement as given
by B e n - M e n a h e m et al. (1970). Because the source region is neither oceanic nor
continental, but r a t h e r a t r e n c h where oceanic lithosphere is underthrusting a
continent, we have assumed, as a rough approximation, an oceanic structure for
those waves leaving the source along the oceanic side of the trench, and a continental
structure for those leaving the source along its continental side. For the Rayleigh
waves analyzed in this study (100- to 250-sec period), because of t h e very long wave

TABLE 4
SOURCE ORIENTATION PARAMETERS FOR THE JANUARY
30, 1973 C'OLIMA EARTHQUAKE (M ~ 7.5)
Fault Plane AuxiliaryPlane
Dip 60 Dip 55
Azimuth 330 Azimuth 305
Normal azimuth 240 Slip azimuth 35

TABLE 5
SOURCE ORIENTATION PARAMETERS FOR THE
FEBRUARY 10, 1973 AFTERSHOCK ( M = 6.0)
Fault Plane AuxiliaryPlane
Dip 60 Dip 55
Azimuth 345 Dip Azimuth 308
Normal azimuth 255 Slip azimuth 40

lengths involved, it is not likely t h a t the error introduced by uncertainty in the

source structure is important. T o correct for a t t e n u a t i o n we have used the atten-
uation values given by B e n - M e n a h e m et al. (1970).
Film copies from seismograms of the W W S S N in a range of epicentral distances
from 10 to 240 were visually analyzed to identify the fundamental m o d e Rayleigh
wave. In the range of epicentral distances from 10 to 70 most of the records were
saturated and it was difficult to disentangle the Rayleigh:wave c o m p o n e n t R1. T h e
components R2, R3, and R4, were easy to follow in most cases. At distances greater
t h a n 70 the R1 c o m p o n e n t was clearly observed, along with the R2 and R3
components. S e v e n t e e n seismograms, which show well-developed easy-to-follow
Rayleigh waves were selected for study.
Love-wave amplitudes were used only as a rough check on the Rayleigh-wave
radiation pattern. In general, the Love waves were stronger at the azimuths where
a nodal region is expected for the Rayleigh wave.
T h e R1 Rayleigh-wave signals were digitized and analyzed using the Fast Fourier
T r a n s f o r m algorithm. T h e signals R2 and R3 were analyzed using t h e stationary
phase approximation.
 STUDY OF THE COLIMA, MEXICO EARTHQUAKE, JANUARY 30, 1973 1835

T h e a v e r a g e o f 24 d e t e r m i n a t i o n s o f s e i s m i c m o m e n t a t a p e r i o d o f 200 sec ( T a b l e
6; F i g u r e 14) is 2.45 + 0.7 1027 d y n e - c m . T h e r e is a c l e a r s u g g e s t i o n ( F i g u r e 13)
that the estimated seismic moment increases about a factor of 2 between a period
of 100 sec a n d a p e r i o d o f 300 sec. T h i s c o u l d p o s s i b l y b e d u e to a c o m p o n e n t o f
r e l a t i v e l y slow f a u l t slip b e f o r e o r a f t e r t h e m a i n slip ( D z i e w o n s k i a n d G i l b e r t , 1974;
K a n a m o r i , 1973) o r t o u n k n o w n e r r o r s in t h e m o m e n t d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f s h o r t e r
p e r i o d s . F o r t h i s r e a s o n , w e h a v e t a k e n t h e m o m e n t i n d i c a t e d a t l o n g e r p e r i o d s to
b e t h e t r u e m o m e n t (Mo = 3.0 +_ 1.8 x 1027 d y n e - c m ) .

AVERAGE SLIP AND STRESS DROP

F r o m t h e a f t e r s h o c k d i s t r i b u t i o n s h o w n in F i g u r e 4, w e c a n e s t i m a t e t h e a r e a o f
the fault plane. If we take a rectangle which includes most of the aftershocks, we

TABLE 6
FAR-FIELDVERTICALCOMPONENTOF THE RADIATION
PATTERN (UFF CORRECTED FOR AMPLITUDE
ATTENUATION)AND SEISMICMOMENT ESTIMATES(R)
AT T = 200 SECS
M,,
Z
Station Phase UF~, ( l0e7
(deg.) (deg.)
dyne-cm)
KBS R1 10 77 6.4 2.514
KBS R3 20 430 7.4 3.137
AKU R1 26 72 6.8 2.524
TAB R3 27 477 5.4 7.303
KON R3 28 445 6.6 2.790
ESK R1 351 81 8.1 3.083
IST R3 36 466 6.4 2.831
SCP R3 39 391 4.3 1.872
ATU R1 41 105 3.9 1.544
BLA R3 42 332 4.4 1.917
PDA R1 56 69 3.3 1.570
BEC R3 60 397 2.1 1.071
NAI R1 71 137 2.4 1.560
BKS R2 143 334 1.2 1.574
COL R2 159 305 4.3 3.441
KBS R2 190 283 6.4 3.025
KTG R2 201 290 6.6 2.982
AKU R2 206 288 6.7 3.007
BIA R2 222 332 4.7 2.356
GEO R2 222 329 6.0 2.995
PDA R2 236 291 4.0 2.282
TUC R3 335 376 2.3 2.166
COL R3 339 415 4.4 3.830

estimate the length of the zone as -90 km, and the surface projection of the width
o f t h e zone a s ~ 6 0 k m . A s s u m i n g a d i p a n g l e o f 30 , t h i s c o r r e s p o n d s to a f a u l t p l a n e
90 b y 70 k m ( a r e a 6300 km2). T h e s e i s m i c slip a v e r a g e d o v e r t h e a f t e r s h o c k a r e a
then can be estimated from the relationship between seismic moment and average
slip; Mo = ta40ff. U s i n g t h e v a l u e for t h e s e i s m i c m o m e n t a t 300 sec a n d a s s u m i n g #
= 3.3 1011 d y n e / c m 2 y i e l d s a v a l u e o f 144 c m for t h e a v e r a g e slip if, o v e r a
r e c t a n g u l a r fault, o r 183 c m for a n e l l i p t i c a l f a u l t w i t h t h e s a m e m a j o r a n d m i n o r
axes.
To estimate the stress drop from the seismic moment, the relationship between
1836 A. REYES, J. N. B R U N E , AND CINNA LOMNITZ

the average slip and average stress drop for a shear crack with a uniform stress drop
is assumed. We may write

C = c W--A~,

where C is a geometrical factor that depends on the fault geometry and slip direction
and W is a characteristic length associated with the narrowest dimension of the
fault.
Using the results from Eshelby (1957), Madariaga (1977) has obtained the explicit
values of the geometrical factor C, for an elliptical fault of major axis L and minor

T(sec)
300 2,50 200 150 I00
I0
9
8
7
Z~ ALL DATA
6
RI DATA
5
E
0 4
I
0.)
c"
>,, 3
"10
f,- ?-5
o4
0
2
X

1.5
0

1.0

.001 .01

f(cps)
FIG. 13. Estimated seismic m o m e n t in the period range from 100 to 300 sec, deduced from mantle
Rayleigh waves RI, R2, and R3. From 100 to 200 sec, each value represents an average of over 24
determinations.

axis W. Using the values estimated above for fault length (90 km) and fault width
(70 km) we can estimate the ellipticity and the values for C corresponding to an
elliptical area, A~ (Figure 15), i.e., C {1.3) = 0.85.
The relationships for seismic moment and stress drop can be combined to give

M0
Aa =
CA~W"

The resulting estimate for stress drop for the Colima earthquake is 10 bars. Of
course, even though the average stress drop over the fault is this low, there may
 STUDY OF THE COLIMA~ MEXICO EARTHQUAKE, JANUARY 30, 1973 1837

have been a variable stress drop on the fault and thus certain sections on the fault
may have had a much higher stress drop and other areas a lower stress drop (e.g.,
may not have slipped at all). The results for the various source parameters for the
Colima main shock are summarized in Table 7.

SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION

The Colima earthquake aftershock study described here is the first of its kind to
be carried out for a major thrust earthquake along the Middle America Trench.
Previous aftershock studies in the region pertained to strike-slip faulting further
inland from the trench.
The Colima earthquake was a thrust fault along the subduction zone between the
Cocos plate and the North American plate. Its area, moment, and stress drop are all

RAYLEIGH WAVE RADIATION PATTERN

T : 200 sec

:1:O.7xtO~Tdyne-cm

FIG. 14. Radiation pattern of the Rayleigh waves at 200 sec period.

typical for earthquakes of this magnitude (Kanamori and Anderson, 1975). The
aftershock distribution is consistent with the P-wave fault-plane :solution. The
inferred dip of the thrust faulting, about 30 , is typical of fault-plane solutions for
other earthquakes along the Middle America Trench (Molnar and Sykes, 1969).
No obvious anomalous features of the earthquake were found which might explain
the peculiar features of the Middle America Trench in this region, i.e., the unde-
formed coastline and the volcanic belt nonparallel to the coastline. The inferred
stress drop of 8 bars might be taken as an indication of low stresses compared to
other moderate earthquakes, which often have stress drops of over 30 bars, and this
in turn might be related to the relatively undeformed nature of the plate boundary.
However, such a correlation is very tenuous, especially with only one detailed
earthquake study available.
 1838 A. REYES~ J. N. BRUNE~ AND CINNA LOMNITZ

T h e a v e r a g e slip i n f e r r e d for t h i s e a r t h q u a k e , ~ 144 cm, w h e n c o m p a r e d w i t h t h e

m o s t r e c e n t e s t i m a t e of p l a t e c o n v e r g e n c e , 5.6 c m / y r ( M i n s t e r e t al., 1974) s u g g e s t s
a r e p e a t t i m e for t h i s size of e a r t h q u a k e of a b o u t 25 yr. T h i s r e p e a t t i m e , c o n s i d e r i n g
t h e v a r i o u s u n c e r t a i n t i e s , is i n v e r y good a g r e e m e n t w i t h t h e r e p e a t t i m e of a b o u t

104 t03 102

CHD

APZ

t9

co,

"'"'"" '" AQU ~"

SOo\

~8 o

Fro. 15. Diagram showing the elliptical area assumed as the fault surface for calculations of average
slip and stress drop. (Epicenters within the elliptical area have not been plotted, see Figure 5.)

TABLE 7
SOURCEPARAMETERSOF THE JANUARY30, 1973 COLIMA,MEXICO
EARTHQUAKE
Surface-wave magnitude Ms = 7.5
Seismic moment Mo = 2.97 +_ 1.8 x 1 0 27 dyne-cm
(300 sec)
Fault length L = 90 km
Fault width W = 70 km
Fault area Ao = 6.3 103 km2
Average slip 0 = 144 cm
Stress drop Aa = 10 bars (elliptical fault model)

50 y r for m o d e r a t e e a r t h q u a k e s e s t i m a t e d b y K e l l e h e r e t al. (1973) f r o m t h e h i s t o r i c

s e i s m i c record, a n d also w i t h t h e i n t e r v a l b e t w e e n t h e e a r t h q u a k e a n d t h e p r e c e d i n g
1941 e a r t h q u a k e s ( ~ 3 2 yr).
P e r h a p s t h e m o s t i n t e r e s t i n g a s p e c t of t h i s e a r t h q u a k e is t h e fact t h a t it a p p a r e n t l y
 STUDY OF THE COLIMA, MEXICO EARTHQUAKE, JANUARY 30, 1973 1839

represents repeated slip on the same zone after 32 yr without there having been an
earthquake in the adjacent "seismic gap" identified by Kelleher et al. This needs to
be further checked to be certain that the rupture area inferred by Kelleher et al. on
the basis of teleseismic locations is accurate.
If it is true that repeated slip occurred on the same section of the fault without
slip on the adjacent "seismic gap," then obviously seismic gaps by themselves cannot
be used to estimate the sites of succeeding earthquakes. Apparently the "gap"
section of the plate boundary is either strong enough to resist slippage while an
adjacent section goes through at least two cycles of strain buildup and release, or
slips more or less aseismically. If complexities of this type are typical of this area,
then a considerably longer time sample of seismicity might be required to determine
the long-term patterns of seismicity, assuming there is a stable pattern. The evidence
suggests that the seismic gap southeast of the aftershock zone of this study is a very
likely place for a large earthquake in the near future, since it apparently has not
slipped since 1911. On the other hand, the fact that it did have an earthquake in
1911 (see note added in proof), suggests it is not a permanent seismically quite zone
of the type discussed by Kelleher and McCann (1976). Thus, this gap must be
considered as an important area for future instrumentation to observe possible
precursors and strong motion.
N O T E A D D E D IN PROOF
On March 14, 1979 an earthquake of magnitude 7.6 occurred near Petatlan,
Mexico, in part of the gap identified above. Preliminary estimates of the moment
(~1.7 1027 dyne-cm, Reichle, personal communication), and the aftershock zone
(-1400 km 2, Meyer et al., 1979) suggest that this event did not rupture northwest-
ward and fill the gap, but occurred in nearly the same place as the event in 1943.
This suggests that the region between the March 1979 earthquake and the Colima
earthquake remains a seismic gap with a high potential for an earthquake in the
near future. Singh et al. (1979) have presented evidence that the 1911 earthquake
was mislocated by Gutenberg and Richter about 280 km, and did not occur in the
Michoacan gap. Additional evidence indicates that no major earthquake has oc-
curred in this gap in the last century. T h u s , there may not have been a major
earthquake in this gap for at least 78 years and perhaps 178 years.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This research was supported in part by NSF Grant EAR76-84060 and NASA Grant NGRh05-009-246
and by the Consejo Nacional de Cienca y Technologia (CONACYT). The field work was supported by
NSF, NASA, UNAM, and the Comision Federal de Electricidad. The calibration shots were fLred by the
crew aboard the "Kana Keoki" vessel of the University of Hawaii. The participation of Dr. Donald M.
Hussong was crucial in this part of the project and is deeply appreciated. The field work would not have
been possible without the participation and support of Ing. Federico Mooser of the CFE and Dr. Julian
Adem, former Director of the Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM. Dr. Federico Sabina, Alejandro Nava, Dr.
Krishna Singh, Reinaldo Mota, and students from the Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM, participated in the
field work.
We wish to thank Mrs. Neenah Rohner for typing the manuscript and Don Betts for drafting the
figures.

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UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO CENTRO DE INVESTIGACION CIENTIFICA Y

SCRIPPS INSTITUTION OF OCEANOGRAPHY EDUCACION SUPERIOR DE ENSENADA
INSTITUTE OF GEOPHYSICS'AND PLANETARY PHYSICS ESPINOZA #843
LA JOLLA, CALIFORNIA 92093 (A.R., J.N.B) ENSENADA, B.C., MEXICO (A.R.)
INSTITUTO DE INVESTIGACIONES EN MATEMATICAS
APLICADAS Y ES SISTEMAS
UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTONOMA DE MEXICO
APARTADO POSTAL 20-726
MEXICO 20, D.F. MEXICO (C.L.)

Manuscript received March 13, 1979