Fortnightly Foodgrain Outlook

Issue No. 190 3 December 2015

HIGHLIGHTS
The domestic wholesale and retail prices of rice decreased over the last fortnight.
The domestic wholesale prices of atta remained unchanged but the retail prices decreased over the
last fortnight.
Export price of rice in Thailand decreased, but in Vietnam prices increased. In India and Pakistan rice
prices remained unchanged over the last fortnight.
Export prices of US SRW and Russian wheat decreased but Ukraine wheat prices remained
unchanged over last fortnight.
Global rice exports are forecasted at a lower level but wheat export forecasted the same as a year
ago.

SUMMARY
RICE PRICE
In the fortnight ending November 26th, the wholesale rice (Swarna) price decreased by 1.9% down to 26.00
Tk/kg and the retail prices also decreased by 4.8% down to 30.00 Tk/kg.
ATTA PRICE
Over the same period, the wholesale price of atta in Dhaka city markets remained unchanged at 23.00 Tk/kg
but the retail price decreased by 1.8% down to 27.50 Tk/kg.
INTERNATIONAL RICE PRICE
In the fortnight ending October 29th, Thai 5% parboiled rice prices decreased by 1.4% down to 355 USD/MT.
But Vietnam 15% white rice prices increased by 7.1% up to 375 USD/MT. Indian 5% parboiled rice and
Pakistan 5% parboiled rice prices remained unchanged at 330 USD/MT and 420 USD/MT respectively. W est
Bengal coarse rice prices decreased by 16.2%, down to 269 USD/MT.
INTERNATIONAL WHEAT PRICE
In the fortnight ending November 29th, US SRW and Russian wheat prices decreased by 1.8% and 1.0% down
to 196 USD/MT and 196 USD/MT respectively. But Ukraine wheat prices remained unchanged at 199
USD/MT. On the same date, Dhaka city wholesale wheat prices stood at about 329.4 USD/MT (increased by
1.6%).
GLOBAL RICE AND WHEAT PRODUCTION
Forecast in November 2015/16 for global rice production is about 473 million MT and that of wheat is about 733
million MT.
RICE TRADE PROSPECT
World rice export for 2015/16 is forecasted in November 2015 at 41.86 million MT, which is 1.5% lower than
that of a year earlier.
WHEAT TRADE PROSPECT
World wheat export for 2015/16 is projected in November 2015 at 160.89 million MT, which is about same as
the previous years export.
BANGLADESH RICE IMPORT
During the fiscal year 2015/16 up to November 26th, no rice was imported by the public sector but the private
sector imported about 201.6 thousand MT of rice.
BANGLADESH WHEAT IMPORT
During the fiscal year 2015/16 up to November 26th, about 264.0 thousand MT of wheat was imported by the
public sector while private sector imported about 1210.0 thousand MT of wheat.
GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION
Over the fortnight ending November 26th, about 43.0 thousand MT food grains were distributed mainly through
the VGD, EP, OMS and TR under the public food distribution system.
GOVERNMENT STOCK
As of November 26th, the public food grain stock stood at 1598.84 thousand MT.
GOVERNMENT PROCUREMENT
Aman procurement will start on15sth December 2015 with a target of 200.00 thousand MT (in terms of rice) at
31 Tk/kg from the domestic market.

Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU), Ministry of Food

http://www.mofood.gov.bd
 Issue No. 190 3 December 2015

1. Domestic price: coarse rice and atta

d
Figure: 1.Change in prices of Coarse Rice (Dhaka) Figure: 2. Change in prices of Atta (Dhaka)
40
38

36 35

34 30

Taka per kg
Taka per kg

32
25
30

28 20 Wholesale
Retail
26 Wholesale
Retail 15
24

22

Source: Department of Agricultural Marketing (DAM) Source: Department of Agricultural Marketing (DAM)

Table: 1.Rice and Atta price changes (Dhaka city)

RICE
In the fortnight ending November 26th, the wholesale rice
(Swarna) price decreased by 1.9% down to 26.00 Tk/kg and
the retail prices also decreased by 4.8% down to 30.00 Tk/kg.
The wholesale and retail prices are 20.8% and 16.1% lower
respectively than that of corresponding period of last year.

ATTA
Over the same period, the wholesale price of atta in Dhaka city
markets remained unchanged at 23.00 Tk/kg but the retail
price decreased by 1.8% down to 27.50 Tk/kg. The wholesale
and retail prices are now point to point 7.4% and 11.0% lower
respectively than a year ago.

Source: DAM; Arrows indicate the direction of price change: red if a more than a 5% annual
or 1% monthly/fortnightly rise, green if more than a 5% annual or a 1%monthly/fortnightly
decrease; yellow otherwise, the yearly change is calculated fortnight to fortnight.

2. International price
Figure: 3.Rice wholesale price in Dhaka and Kolkata and Figure: 4.Wheat wholesale price in Dhaka and
FOB Prices in relevant international markets FOB Prices in relevant international markets
500 450

400
450
350
USD per MT

USD per MT

400
300
350
250
`
300 200

250 150

Dhaka city Wholesale PB West Bangal PB

Thai 5% Parboiled Vietnam 15% White Dhaka city Wholesale US SRW, US Gulf Port
Pakistan 5% Parboiled India 5% Parboiled Russia, deep-sea Port Ukraine, deep-sea Port

Source: For average weekly FOB prices: USDA, FAO, Jackson Sons& Co.(London) Lid and Agrimarket Weekly. For average wholesale prices: Department of
Agriculture Marketing, Govt. of Bangladesh and Department of Consumer Affairs, Government of India

RICE
In the fortnight ending November 27th, Thai 5% parboiled rice prices decreased by 1.4% down to 355 USD/MT. But Vietnam 15%
white rice prices increased by 7.1% up to 375 USD/MT. On the other hand, Indian 5% parboiled rice and Pakistan 5% parboiled
rice prices remained unchanged at 330 USD/MT and 420 USD/MT respectively. West Bengal coarse rice prices decreased by
16.2%, down to 269 USD/MT. However, Dhaka city wholesale rice prices stood at 331 USD/MT (decreased by 1.9 %).

WHEAT
In the fortnight ending November 27th, US SRW and Russian wheat prices decreased by 1.8% and 1.0% down to 196 USD/MT
and 196 USD/MT respectively. But Ukraine wheat prices remained unchanged at 199 USD/MT. On the same date, Dhaka city
wholesale wheat prices stood at about 329.4 USD/MT (increased by 1.6%).

2
 Issue No. 190 3 December 2015
Table: 2.Chicago Board of Trade SRW Futures (USD/MT)
Closing price Dec-15 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16
13-Nov 183 184 185 188 193
20-Nov 179 180 181 182 185 Abundant global wheat supply limited gains with wheat futures
change -1.9% -2.2% -1.9% -3.1% -4.1% closing mixed on the week. CBOT December wheat futures lost 4
Table: 3.Kansas Board of Trade HRW Futures (USD/MT) USD/MT on the week to close at 179 USD/MT and KCBT fell 3
USD/MT to close at 168 USD/MT (U.S. wheat Associates,
change Dec-15 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 November 20, 2015). (Table-2 & 3).
13-Nov 171 176 180 184 189
20-Nov 168 173 177 181 186
change -1.8% -1.9% -1.7% -1.7% -1.5%
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Weekly Price Report, Conversion rates: 1USD/bu = 36.743 USD/MT

3. Global production and stock

Table: 4. Rice world production and stock (million MT)
WHEAT
2015/16 change 2015/16 Global wheat production for 2015/16 in November is
2013/14 2014/15 projected to reach 733 million MT, up about 1.1% from a
forecast over 2014/15
year earlier. Production is raised to a new record as larger
Production 478 478 473 -1.0% crops in the EU more than offset production in Australia
Ending stocks 108 104 91 -12.3% and Russia (USDA, November, 2015).
World wheat ending stocks for 2015/16 are forecasted in
Source: USDA, November, 2015.
November at 227 million MT, which is 7.4% higher than a
RICE year earlier.
Global rice production for 2015/16 is forecasted in November
at 5.Wheat
Table: 473 million MTproduction
world (milled) down
andabout 1.0%
stocks from aMT)
(million year Table: 5. Wheat world Production and stock (million MT)
earlier which is down 0.5 million tons from last months
forecast. Production is down from last month as reduction for 2015/16 change 2015/16
Bangladesh, Cambodia, and the Philippines more than offset 2013/14 2014/15
grains for South Korea, Sri Lanka and the United States forecast over 2014/15
(USDA, November, 2015).
Global ending stocks for 2015/16 are forecasted in
Production 715 725 733 1.1%
November at 91 million MT, which is 12.3% below a year Ending stocks 194 212 227 7.4%
earlier.
Source: USDA, November, 2015.

4. Global trade
Table: 6. Main rice annual exporters (million MT, milled)
2013/14- 2014/15- RICE
2015/16
2013/14
2014/15 2014/15 2015/16
projected Total calendar year 2015/16 global rice export is
change change forecasted in November at 41.86 million MT, down 0.16
Thailand 10.97 9.00 -18% 9.50 6% million tons from last months forecast and 1.5 % below
Vietnam 6.33 6.20 -2% 7.00 13% from a year earlier (USDA, November, 2015).
Cambodias 2016 export forecast was lowered.
USA 3.00 3.45 15% 3.25 -6% Indonesias import forecast was raised, while Sri
Pakistan 3.60 4.00 11% 4.50 13% Lankas was lowered.
India 10.91 11.50 5% 9.50 -17% In 2016, a big decline in Indias exports, along with
Others 8.50 8.33 -2% 8.11 -3% reduced shipments from Burma, Cambodia, and the
United States, not expected to be fully offset by
World total 43.30 42.48 -2% 41.86 -1.5% increased exports from Egypt, Pakistan, South America,
Table: 7.Main wheat annual exporters (million MT) and Thailand.
The largest 2016 export revision this month was a 0.2-
2013/14- 2014/15- million ton drop in Cambodias export forecast to 0.8
2015/16
2013/14 2014/15 2014/15 2015/16 million tons, a result of a much smaller crop.
projected Cambodias 2016 exports are 0.3 below a year earlier
change change
and the lowest since 2009/10. The EUs 2016 export
USA 31.52 22.75 -28% 22.00 -3%
forecast was raised 40,000 tons to 260,000 based on
European Union 32.03 35.40 11% 33.50 -5% the 2015 export level.
Canada 22.16 24.83 12% 20.50 -17%
Australia 18.34 16.58 -10% 17.50 6% WHEAT
Ukraine 9.76 11.27 16% 15.00 33% Wheat export for 2015/16 is forecasted 160.89 million
Russia 18.57 22.80 23% 23.50 3% MT, same as previous years forecast (USDA,
November, 2015).
Others 30.01 27.72 -8% 28.89 4% Global trade is raised slightly. Exports are up in Brazil,
World total 162.38 161.35 -1% 160.89 0% Canada, and the EU, but cut in Australia and the United
Source: (USDA, November, 2015).rice and wheat; arrows indicate the Direction of export quantities States.
Change: red if more than 10% change from previous year, yellow more than 5% and green United States is down 1.0 million tons to 22.0 million,
less than 5% change. For rice, 2014/15 is calendar year 2014, 2015/16 is calendar year
2015 and so on. based on weak shipments and slow sales.
Wheat exports are increased by 0.5 million tons for Brazil this month. Excessive rains lowered wheat quality there, and the
abundance of feed-quality wheat that cannot be utilized domestically. Indian wheat exports are also up 0.5 million tons to 0.8
million, based on a higher pace of exports to Bangladesh. Exports are also adjusted slightly up for Moldova. Partly offsetting the
export increases identified above, wheat exports are projected down 1.0 million tons to 17.5 million this month for Australia, where
wheat production is projected lower.

3
 Issue No. 190 3 December 2015

5. Import

Figure: 5. Rice imports (in 000 MT)

RICE
As of November 26th, no rice was imported by the public sector
but the private sector has imported about 201.6 thousand MT of
rice in this fiscal year. Over the same period of last year, no rice
was imported by the public sector but the private sector imported
about 306.7 thousand MT.

WHEAT
Up to the fortnight ending November 26th, about 264.0 thousand
MT wheat was imported by the public sector and about 1343.3
thousand MT by private sector. Over the same period of last year,
68.5 thousand MT was imported by the public sector and the
Figure: 6. Wheat imports (in 000 MT) private sector imported about 1210.0 thousand MT.
.
Rice and wheat LC opening and settling situation are presented in
Table- 8.

th
Table: 8: LC situation, as of 24 November/15 (in '000 MT)
L.C. opened LC settled
Period Rice Wheat Rice Wheat
1-24 November /15 (provisional) 40 329 66 240
Cumulative month, October/15 40 329 66 240
Cumulative year (starting 1st July/15) 252 1791 255 1508
Source: MIS; Aid, if any, is included in Government imports Source: Bangladesh Bank

6. Government intervention
Figure: 7. Rice and wheat distributed through PFDS as of
th
November 26 2015 and yearly target in thousand MT
PUBLIC FOOD DISTRIBUTION
The total distribution planned for 2015/16 is about 2.78 million
MT. The actual distribution was about 1.84 million MT in
2014/15.

Over this fortnight ending November 26th, 27.1 thousand MT

food grains were distributed mainly through VGD (13.8
thousand MT), EP (10.4 thousand MT), OMS (5.1 thousand
MT) and TR (4.9 thousand MT). As of this date, a total of about
461.5 thousand MT had been distributed through the PFDS,
which are about 16.6% of the yearly target.

The OMS drive is continuing in small scale only rice in Dhaka

and Chittagong areas and atta all over the country, rice being
Source: Directorate General of Food and FPMU; OMS: Open Market Sale; OP: sold at 20 Tk/kg and atta sold at 19 Tk/kg.
Other Priorities; LEI: Large Employers; EP: Essential; Priorities; FFW:
Food for Work; VGD: Vulnerable Group Development; TR: Test Relief;
VGF: Vulnerable Group Feeding; GR: Gratuitous Relief; SF: School Feeding PUBLIC STOCKS
As of November 26th, the public food grain stock stood at
PUBLI
Figure: 8. BORO procurement 2015 1598.84 thousand MT, 1211.69 thousand MT for rice and
1200 387.15SBLI
PUBLIC thousand MT for wheat (MISM, DG Food).
1000
Boro target 2015
DOMESTIC FOOD GRAIN PROCUREMENT
Thousand MT

800
BORO PROCUREMENT
600 Government will start Aman procurement on 15th December
The
2015governd).
(in terms of rice) with a target of 200.00 thousand MT at
400
31 Tk/kg from the domestic market by the Food Planning and
200 Monitoring committee (FPMC).
0
Boro procurement was closed on 7th October 2015. As on 7th
October about 1070.0 thousand MT of Boro rice were
procured.
Boro Achieved 2015 Boro Contracts 2015 Boro Target 2015