Introduction

Assalamualaikum

Good Morning

My name is Ridho Fajar Zulfikar, My student is 0213U189.

Before I begin my presentation, I would like to say thanks you to my examiners

lectures, Mrs. Alfiana, Hj., Dr., Dra., M.M. and Mrs. Agatha Rinta Suhardi, S.Si.,
M.M., who already spent your time for coming here. Also thanks for my supervisor
lecture Mrs. Dede Hertina, S.E., M.Si., who always guide me till now.

Now, I want to present my research, its about Analysis Factor Fundamental AND
Factor Macroeconomy that Affect Stock Return (Study On Listed Companies In
The Consumer Goods Industry in BEI at period 2011-2015).

Research Background

Based on table, ROA Multi Bintang Indonesia suffered a decline in 2012 and
then increased again next year, but it was not followed by the stock return in the same
year, in 2012 stock returns has increased and in 2013 the stock return has decreased,
the same case with the Indofood on 2012 ,ROA has decreased but the stock return has
instead increased. This incident is contrary to the theory expressed by L.Thian Hin
(2008: 69), the greater the ROA shows better performance due to the greater rate of
return.

Also occurs on other fundamental factor, namely PER. Multi Bintang

Indonesia PER increased in 2014 but stock returns have decreased, and the Indofood
PER in the same year has increased and also sotck retun which decreased. This
incident is contrary to the theory expressed by Sugianto (2008: 73), the higher the
PER ratio indicates that the company's performance also improved. These two
financial ratios to illustrate the performance of the company, the higher the ratio, the
company's performance can be said to be getting better, then investors will be
attracted to invest and it will boost stock returns.

Occurs too on macroeconomic factors, namely interest rates and inflation.

Interest rates in 2014 increased from the previous year but the Multi Bintang stock
return have decreased, then on the company Indofood in 2015 the interest rate has
decreased but the stock return also decreased. This incident is contrary to the theory
expressed by Tandelilin (2001: 213), if interest rates decrease, then the stock price
will increase and followed by stock returns increased as well.

Inflation increased in 2012 it was followed by an increase in the company's

stock return multibintang Indonesia and Indofood, then at the end of the study period,
inflation decreased quite significantly and it is followed by a decline in the company's
stock return Indofood. This incident is contrary to the theory expressed by Tandelilin
(2010; 342) High inflation reduces the real income level is obtained by investors from
investing, so the higher the inflation, the lower stock returns.

Based on previous research,,a research gap was found. The first research on
ROA affect stock returns, ie research conducted by PA * and PB * with the results of
ROA positive effect on return, the research is inconsistent from PC research , that
ROA has no effect on return.

then research on ..

Identifikasi

How ROA influence on stock returns in listed companies in the consumer goods
industry in the period 2011-2015?
Tujuan

To determine the effect of ROA to stock return in companies registered in the

consumer goods industry in the period 2011-2015

Kerangka Pemikiran

According to Martono and Agus Harjito (Financial Management, 2008: 4),

Financial Management is All activities of companies related to how to obtain funds,
use of funds, and manage assets according to the company's overall objectives.

To obtain the funds we could get in the capital market, because according
Tandelilin (2010: 26), the stock market is a meeting place for those who have excess
funds to those who need funds to trade in securities generally have a lifespan of more
than one year, such as stocks, and the stock market is also a place of buying and
selling shares, or a place to invest.

Before investing, it helps us analyze the fundamental factors to determine the

performance of the company. In this study we analyze the fundamental factors such
as ROA and PER, as explained earlier this ratio illustrates the company's performance
the higher the ratio, the company's performance will be judged the better, investors
will be interested to invest and it will boost stock returns.

As investors, we should also pay attention to macroeconomic factors such as

interest rates and inflation. According to Bank Indonesia, higher interest rates will
affect the decisions of investors who prefer to sell their shares. this matter will affect
in stock price down and eventually stock return will decline, and the rise in inflation
will affect the company's performance caused by rising production costs, and make
the selling price of goods go up, then the sales will decrease, it makes the
performance decreases as reflected by the decrease stock returns.
Hipotesis

from the framework of thought, we get the research hypothesis, as follow

BAB 3

- The research object are

- data collection methods used are

- the types and sources of data used are

- samples obtained as many as 30 companies

Descriptive

- From the results of SPSS, N indicates the amount of data as much as 150 data that
results from 30 companies multiplied by the period of the study.
- The greatest ROA value is owned by Unilever in 2013, which means Unilever has
the ability to generate income from total assets was good and the lowest roa
owned by Bentoel in 2014
- The greatest PER value is owned by Sukses Makmur in 2014, which means
Sukses Makmur have earnings per share growth in a good and lowest PER owned
by Mustika Ratu in 2013.
- The highest Interest rate occurred in 2014 and the lowest occurred in 2012
- The highest Inflation occurred in 2013 and the lowest occurred in 2015
- The greatest value of stock return is owned by Prasidha aneka in 2011, which
means Prasida Aneka has a pretty good return and the lowest value of stock
return is owned Multi Bintang occurred in 2014.

P Plot
the normal p-plot graph shows the points spread around the diagonal line and
deployment following the diagonal line, it can be said that the data has a normal
distribution

k-s

Statistical test results using a non-parametric test Kolmogorov-Smirnov, it appears

that the value asymp sig (2-tailed) is 0, 064 and above the significant value of 0.05 in
other words the residual variable have a normal distribution.

VIF

in the table of VIF indicate that the independent variable has a value of tolerance is
greater than 0.10 and the value of Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) is smaller than 10,
which means there is no correlation between the independent variables

Heterokedastisitas

Data are scattered Both Above and below the 0 ON Y axis, it can be concluded that
the regression model did not occur heteroscedasticity.

Autokorelasi

According to the table, it is known that Dubrin-Watson value is 1.820, this value will
be compared with DW table with the number of observations (n) = 150, the number
of independent variables 4 (k) = 4 and the 0.05 significance level obtained value dl =
1.6788 and du = 1.7881. Therefore the value of DW 1.820 greater than the upper limit
(du) 1.7881 and less than or smaller than 4 - 1.7881 (4 - du) 2.2119, it can be
concluded that there is no autocorrelation.

R2

According to the table, independent variables can be explained by the dependent

variable 13.4%, the rest is influenced by other factors
Multiple Regresi

- 1.621, which means if the independent variable is 0, then the value of dependent
variable is 1,621.
- 0.003, which means if the return on assets (ROA) increased by one unit and the
other variables constant, the dependent variable the stock return will be increased
by 0,003 units.
- 0.000, means that the variable price earnings ratio (PER) will not increase or
decrease the dependent variable Stock Return
- - 0.275, which means if the variable interest rate (Bi rate) increased by one unit
and the other variables constant, the dependent variable the stock return will
decrease by 0.275 units.
- 0.070, which means if the inflation increased by one unit and the other variables
constant, the dependent variable the stock return will be increased by 0,070 units.

PARSIAL

- ROA & PER. According to the table, it can be seen that the significance value of
0.332> 0.05 or t count> t tabel.0.974 <1.65543, where the beta coefficient of
0.003 that the greater the return on assets has no effect on stock returns. It can be
concluded H1 rejected, meaning retun on assets partially no effect on stock
returns.
- Suku Bunga. According to the table, it can be seen that the significance value of
0.000 <0.05 or t count> t table. 4509> 1.65543, where the beta coefficient of
-0.275 that the greater the interest rate (BI rate) then stock returns will decrease. It
can be concluded H3 accepted, meaning that the interest rate (BI rate) partially
and significant negative effect on stock returns.
- According to the table, it can be seen that the significance value of 0.003 <0.05 or
tcount> t table. 3.052> 1.65543, where the beta coefficient of 0.070 that the
greater the inflation that stock returns will increase. It can be concluded H4 is
 rejected, meaning that inflation is partially significant positive effect on stock
returns and the results are not consistent with the hypothesis.
- f count obtained from 5.622 greater than F table at 2.43 obtained through the F
statistic tables WITH DF1=4 and DF2=145 and significant value less than 0.05, it
can be concluded H5 is accepted which mean return on assets (ROA), the price
earnings ratio (PER), interest rate (BI rate) and inflation simultaneously effect
significant on stock returns.

CONCLUSION

- ROA and PER has no effect on stock returns. Stock returns are more influenced
by macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, inflation, exchange rate etc, the
statement in line with the results of research in which the interest rate negative
effect on stock returns and inflation has positive effects on stock returns. During
the study period , there has also been an economic instability in Indonesia with
the weakening of the rupiah in 2013, due to plans by the Fed (US central bank) to
reduce Quantitative Easing (QE) which causes the release of large amounts of
foreign portfolio investments from Indonesia. As a result the price of shares has
decreased from June to September 2013 (indoprogress news site).