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A PUBLICATION OF HILLSDALE COLLEGE

Imprimis OVER 3,500,000 READER S MONTHLY


Februar y 2017 Volume 46, Number 2

How Intelligence Works


(When it Does)
Herbert E. Meyer
Founder and President of Storm King Press

HERBERT E. MEYER , founder and president of Storm King


Press, served during the Reagan Administration as Special Assistant
to the Director of Central Intelligence and Vice Chairman of the
CIAs National Intelligence Council. A recipient of the U.S. National
Intelligence Distinguished Service Medal, his articles and essays on
intelligence have been published in several major newspapers, including
The Wall Street Journal. He is the author of several books, including
Real-World Intelligence and Hard Thinking; two eBooks, How to
Analyze Information and The Cure for Poverty; and a recent booklet, Why is the
World So Dangerous.

The following is adapted from a speech delivered on February 15, 2017, at a Hillsdale College
National Leadership Seminar in Phoenix, Arizona.

The performance of our countrys intelligence service is the latest example


of an issue exploding into the headlines and becoming a shouting match, while fail-
ing to clarify anything about the issue itself. This explosion was ignited last fall by
allegations that the Russians hacked into Hillary Clintons campaign to help Donald
Trump win the election. The blast radius expanded after the election, when rumors
surfaced that the Russians had deployed their nasty tactic of kompromat to under-
mine President Trumps credibility by spreading rumors about his private behavior
while in Moscow years ago. All this, on top of failures that had already wreaked
havoc at the CIA and our other intelligence agenciesthe 9/11 attacks themselves,
the mess over weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, the weird 2007 National Intel-
ligence Estimate whose key judgment was that Iran had abandoned its nuclear bomb
HILLSDALE COLLEGE: PURSUING TRUTH DEFENDING LIBERT Y SINCE 1844

program, Edward Snowdens NSA espio- information, they can chart a safe course
nage activitieshas kept the issue of our for our country. And if they can see the
intelligence service in the headlines. distant future soon enough and clearly
But before addressing the question enoughand if they dont like what they
of why these failures have occurred, seethey can take steps to change the
we need to define clearly the role and future before it happens.
purpose of our countrys intelligence Good intelligence is a combination
service, with a focus on how intelligence of information and insight. Information
really works when its working properly. is the raw material, while insight is the
Just utter the word intelligence finished product. Sometimes this insight
and most people conjure up images of takes the form of a top secret report
spies, secret satellites peering down that alerts the president and his team
on foreign cities and terrorist camps, to something thats about to happen,
and rooms full of young technocrats such as a terrorist attack or the military
reading private emails and listening to invasion of one country by another. At
private conversations. These images are other times it is a National Intelligence
accurate, but they reflect the tools and Estimate, whose purpose is to provide
techniques of our intelligence service, an overall assessment of a major issue
rather than its purpose. To understand such as North Koreas nuclear bomb
its purpose, think of a jumbo jet flying program or the rapid growth of Africas
at night through turbulent skiesthun- middle classalong with a prediction of
der clouds, lightning, other airplanes its future course.
streaking in all directions and at all The key to producing good intel-
altitudes. To navigate through this, the ligence lies in getting this combina-
pilot and his crew rely on their radar tion of information and insight right.
the instrument that paints a picture of Intelligence work is like science. You
their environment, enabling them to dont collect information randomly
see whats going on and then stare at it in
around them and hopes that something

what lies ahead so Imprimis (im-pri-mis), important will pop up.
[Latin]: in the first place
they can chart a safe You start with a the-
course. Radar doesnt EDITOR sisin other words,
Douglas A. Jeffrey
tell the captain and DEPUT Y EDITORS
you decide what you
his crew what to do, Matthew D. Bell want to know. Then
Timothy W. Caspar
but it gives them the COPY EDITOR
you send your col-
accurate information Monica VanDerWeide lectors out to get it.
theyll need to make ART DIRECTOR
Shanna Cote
This is why the key to
good decisions. MARKETING DIRECTOR producing good intel-
Our intelligence William Gray ligence lies in asking
PRODUCTION MANAGER
service is our nations Lucinda Grimm the right question,
radar. Its purpose is STAFF ASSISTANTS rather than in just por-
Robin Curtis
to provide the presi- Kim Ellsworth ing over whats been
dent and his national Mary Jo Von Ewegen randomly collected in
security team with Copyright 2017 Hillsdale College hopes that somewhere
an accurate picture The opinions expressed in Imprimis are not in the pile of reports
necessarily the views of Hillsdale College.
of whats going on in Permission to reprint in whole or in part is
and intercepts on your
the world and whats hereby granted, provided the following credit desk youll spot some-
line is used: Reprinted by permission from
likely to happen in Imprimis, a publication of Hillsdale College. thing important.
the days, months, SUBSCRIPTION FREE UPON REQUEST. Let me give you
ISSN 0277-8432
and years ahead. The Imprimis trademark registered in U.S.
an example of how
assumption is that Patent and Trademark Office #1563325. this worked during
if the president and the Reagan admin-
his team have this istration. From the

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FEBRUARY 2017 VOLUME 46, NUMBER 2 < hillsdale.edu

end of World War II until 1981, every difference between shopping for food in
presidents objective had been not to the supermarket and actually cooking
lose the Cold War. If things were no dinner.
worse when a president left office than Insight is the product of knowl-
when he took office, hed done a good edge, experience, and, above all, good
job. But President Reagan didnt want judgment. You cannot say something
to tread waterhe wanted to win the insightful, or even something intelli-
Cold War. In other words, he switched gent, on a subject or issue about which
from defense to offense. So Reagans you dont know anything. So the most
great director of Central Intelligence, senior intelligence analysts must be
William Casey, asked the CIAs Soviet among the worlds most knowledgeable
Division two obvious questions: Where individuals in their fields of expertise
is the Soviet Union weak? and Where the Mideast, Russia, China, nuclear
is it most vulnerable? The answer he weapons, economic development, etc.
received was: We dont know. No ones And they must have that one elusive
ever asked this before. Our spies had and unquantifiable skill that so often
been so focused on Soviet strengths brings success in every venture: the
infantry divisions, nuclear missiles, ability to spot a pattern with the few-
tanks, submarines, and so forththat est possible factsthe ability to look at
we had no intelligence on Soviet weak- whats known and combine this with
nesses, such as its imploding economy. their own knowledge, experience, and
Under Caseys leadership, we refocused good judgment, to come up with a new
our collection efforts and, not surpris- idea or insight. This is the skill we see
ingly, found all sorts of Soviet vul- in great scientists like Albert Einstein,
nerabilities that hadnt been grasped in great entrepreneurs like Steve Jobs,
because no one had bothered look- and in great intelligence chiefs like Bill
ing for them. President Reagan used Casey.
these weaknesses and vulnerabilities Back in January, when U.S. intel-
to put more and more pressure on the ligence chiefs released an unclassified
Kremlin. Eight years later the Berlin version of the briefing they gave to
Wall came down, and two years after President-Elect Trump about Russian
that the Soviet Union ceased to exist. efforts to influence the November elec-
In the intelligence business, just as tion, Americans learned a phrase thats
in scientific research, a thesis some- unique to the world of intelligence: key
times turns out to be wrong. The judgment. It was a key judgment that
collectors cant find what you want, Russia had hacked into John Podestas
because it isnt there. When this hap- email server, and a key judgment that
pensand it happens to even the best Vladimir Putin preferred Donald
scientists and intelligence officials Trump to Hillary Clinton. Since these
you must abandon your flawed thesis key judgments understandably erupted
and re-think the issue. If you refuse to into a nasty political brawl, lets take
do this, youre like a scientist who con- a moment to understand what a key
tinues to insist that the Earth is flator judgment really is. Simply put, its the
a president who continues to insist that conclusion reached by our most senior
ISIS is like a junior varsity team. intelligence officials, based not only on
the evidence they were able to collect,
*** but also on the insights it enabled them
to reach based on their knowledge and
When the collectors have done their experience.
workwhen theyve told the analysts A key judgment isnt the same as
what they want to knowthe intel- a jury verdict. A jury verdict is based
ligence process shifts from gathering solely on the evidence presented to it. In
information to creating insight. Its the a murder trial, unless the prosecutors

3
HILLSDALE COLLEGE: PURSUING TRUTH DEFENDING LIBERT Y SINCE 1844

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and Larry P. Arnn

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can prove beyond a reasonable doubt Estimate and signed off on itbut also
that the defendant is guilty, you must played a major role in writing itwas
vote for acquittal. But in a National the CIA director himself. Like every
Intelligence Estimate, you reach a key other member of the cabinet, Bill Casey
judgment by starting with the evidence, was a busy man. But to Casey, being
then combining it with your own in charge of our intelligence service
knowledge and experience to reach a meant more than merely being its top
conclusion. administrator and dealing with budgets
Precisely because key judgments go and bureaucracies. It meant that he
beyond evidence, an intelligence ser- himself was our countrys top intel-
vice must be trusted by policymakers ligence analyst. When the final draft of
to be effective. Policymakers may not an Estimate landed on his deskmore
always like what theyre toldas when precisely, when I walked into his office
the obvious implication of a National and handed it to himCasey would
Intelligence Estimate is that a favorite take that draft, pick up a pen and a yel-
policy is heading for catastrophebut low legal pad, and go through it word
if they trust the intelligence service, by word.
they will know that what theyve been Sometimes he made a change that
told is likely true. And this trust needs clarified a sentence. Other times he
to be earned. asked a question that forced us to go
This is how it was during the Reagan back and re-think what wed written.
administration, because everyone from When that happened, we either changed
the President on down knew perfectly the draft or asked to meet with Casey
well that the intelligence official who to try and persuade him that the origi-
not only had read the final version of an nal version was better. He would listen

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FEBRUARY 2017 VOLUME 46, NUMBER 2 < hillsdale.edu

and then make his decision. All of us management. Each of them has proven
who worked closely with Bill Caseyhe he can talk about the key issues that
insisted that everyone, including the confront us with an impressive level of
CIAs most junior analysts, call him personal knowledge and insight. Each
Billwere astounded by the amount of is capable of actually doing intelligence
time he devoted to getting the final draft rather than merely overseeing it.
of an Estimate, or the final version of the This will require restoring the cor-
Presidents Daily Brief, just right. He did rect balance between collection and
this by sitting quietly in his office, read- analysis. Obviously, collecting infor-
ing, writing, andsomething that so few mation is crucially important work.
officials in Washington, D.C. set aside Collecting information through tech-
the time to dothinking. nologysatellites, intercepts, and so
forthis intense to the point of exhaus-
*** tion. Collecting information through
espionage is dangerous and sometimes
So why has our intelligence service fatal. All of us owe these collectors a
suffered so many failures during the last huge debt of gratitude. What they need
decade or so, losing the trust of so many? now is guidance from the topa clear
Because its been run by career bureau- sense of what to look for, rather than just
crats and administrators who rose to the being told to sweep in whatever infor-
top by managing intelligence rather than mation they can in hopes it will prove
actually doing it. Thats like putting an useful.
airline executive with an MBA and a law Turning this raw material into first-
degree into the cockpit of a jumbo jet. rate intelligence will require the active
And like bureaucrats and administra- participation of our countrys best
tors everywhere, our recent intelligence geo-strategic experts in think tanks,
chiefs focused on structure rather than universities, corporations, and increas-
on people. Of course all organizations, ingly the blogosphere. Directors Coats
including intelligence services, need the and Pompeo should recruit the ones
proper structure. But especially in an they can, and be in close touch with the
intelligence service, good structure is others. This doesnt mean agreeing with
worthless without the right peoplein everything these experts say and write.
this case world-class analysts who are It means listening to them and blend-
deeply knowledgeable about the Mideast, ing their information and insights with
China, Russia, terrorism, and all the whats been gathered covertly, in order to
rest. Make a list of our countrys leading reach the clearest, most accurate conclu-
experts on these subjects. How many sions about whats happening now and
of them have held top-level jobs in our whats likely to happen in the future.
intelligence service during the last dozen Finally, Coats and Pompeo will
or so years? How often have the leaders need to do the one thing their recent
of our intelligence service reached out predecessors didnt do, either because
to these people to seek their advice? The they didnt recognize the need to do
correct answers are: none and rarely. it or didnt have the ability. They will
We are still in the early days of the need to set aside timequite a bit of
Trump administration, but to borrow timeto sit quietly in their offices and
an overused Washington clich, we think. Their objective must be to paint
should be cautiously optimistic about an accurate picture of whats going on
the future of our intelligence service. in the world and of whats likely to hap-
Neither Director of National Intelligence pen in the future. If they can do this,
Dan Coats nor Director of Central President Trump and his national secu-
Intelligence Mike Pompeo are profes- rity team will have what they need to see
sional bureaucrats. Theyve built their America safely through todays global
careers on substance rather than on turbulence: radar.

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