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requirements:
The probability of any outcome must lie between 0
and 1; that is
1. That is
k
It is denoted as A and B or A B
The joint probability of any two independent
then their joint probability is P(A B) = 0
1
P(A B) = P(B A)
Union of Events A and B:
The union of events A and B is the event that
denoted as A or B or A B
The probability that event A, or event B, or both
occur is
P(B)
Complement rule: P(Ac) or P( A ) = 1 P(A), for
any event A.
Conditional Probability:
The probability of event A given event B is
P( A B) P ( A ) P( B)
P(A B) = P(B) = P (B)
2
For example, let A and B be independent events
= 0.7
Or P(A B) = P(A)=0.7
P( B A) P ( B ) P( A) 0.8 x 0.7
P(B A) = P( A) = P (B) = 0.7
= 0.8
Or P(B A) = P(B)= 0.8
P( A B) P ( A ) P(B)
B
P(A )= P(B) = P (B) =
0.7 x 0.2
0.2 = 0.7
Or P(A B ) = P(A)=0.7
P( A B) P ( A ) P( B) 0.3 x 0.8
P( A B) = P( B) = P (B) = 0.8
= 0.3
Or P( A B)=p( A )=0.3
3
P( A B) P ( A ) P( B)
P( A B ) = P(B) = P (B) =
0.3 x 0.2
0.2 = 0.3
For example, let A and B be mutually exclusive
and 0.5
P(A B) = 0.0
P( A ) = 1 P(A) = 1 0.2 = 0.8
P( B ) = 1 P(B) = 1 0.5 = 0.5
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)= 0.2 + 0.5
0.0 = 0.7
Joint Probability:
For example, by referring to the following table:
Other Events
Events M N O Total
X 2 1 3 6
Y 1 2 1 4
Total 3 3 4 10
P(X) = 6/10
P(Y) = 4/10
P(O) = 4/10
2
P( X M ) 10
P(XM) = P(M ) = 3 = 2/3
10
4
1
P( M Y ) 10
P(MY) = P(Y ) = 4 = 1/4
10
1
PO Y 10
P(OY) = = 4 = 1/4
P(Y )
10
1
PN X 10
P(NX) = = 6 = 1/6
P( X)
10
P(N) = 3/10
Injury Type
Accident Type A1 A2 A3
Fatality Slight Injury Sever Injury Total
Collision 304 9669 1606 11579
C1
Pedestrian 218 3248 892 4358
C2
Turnover 148 1522 466 2136
C3
670 14439 2964 18073
Total
n
i 1
xi2 . p ( xi) ( E ( xi)) 2
=
SD = S2
5
A) Let the probability distribution is given by:
3 2 1- Xi
:Compute the
:Solution
3
i 1
xi. p ( xi) 0.8
1) Mean = E(Xi) =
S 2 i xi2 p ( xi) ( E ( xi)) 2 4 (0.8) 2 3.36
n
2)
S .D 3.36 1.83
Probability Distributions
Binomial Distribution:
The binomial experiment consists of a fixed
by n.
6
Each trial has two possible outcomes. We label one
failure is
q(=1 p)
0p1
0q1
and p + q = 1.
The trials are independent, which means that the
n
The combination of n taken x = x =
n!
n
x ! ( nx ) ! , using the calculator ,nCr x ,
note that:
n
n = 1
n
0 = 1
0!
= 1
7
1! = 1
For example, 5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 120
In binomial distribution:
x = np
x
Variance (S2) = q= npq
SD = S 2
CV =
SD
x = q
x
10 ! 3 7
(0.2) (0.8)
3 !(7 )!
= 0.2
x
1) P ( = 2)
x
2) p ( 1)
8
x 4
3) p(( )
x
4) P ( = 0)
x
5) P ( = 6)
6) Find the
I) mean
II) variance
III) Standard Deviation
IV) Coefficient of variation