The Third Wave

3/19/2017 TheThirdWave
BooksYou
MUSTRead
TheThirdWave
byAlvinToffler.
Note:Thefollowingarenotesfromtheabovebook.Ifoundthebookseminal,eyeopening,lifechanging.I
recommendthatyoubuyandreadtheentirebook.Onlybyreadingtheentirebookwillyougetthewhole
picture.Thefollowingquotes,Ihope,willwhetyourappetite.ColbyGlass
Introduction
"Thisbook..contendsthattheworldhasnotswervedintolunacy,andthat,infact,beneaththeclatterandjangle
ofseeminglysenselesseventsthereliesastartlingandpotentiallyhopefulpattern...TheThirdWaveisforthose
whothinkthehumanstory,farfromending,hasonlyjustbegun"(Toffler1980,1).
Civilizationcanbedividedintothreemajorphases:
1.FirstWave: theagriculturalrevolution
2.SecondWave: theindustrialrevolution
theinformationage
3.ThirdWave:
(justnowbeginning)
Eachwave,orcivilizationphase,developsitsown"superideology,"orZeitgeist,withwhichitexplainsreality
andjustifiesitsownexistence.Thisideologyimpactsallthesphereswhichmakeupacivilizationphase:
technology
socialpatterns
informationpatterns
"power"patterns
"Humanityfacesaquantumleapforward.Itfacesthedeepestsocialupheavalandcreativerestructuringofall
time.Withoutclearlyrecognizingit,weareengagedinbuildingaremarkablenewcivilizationfromtheground
up...Whatishappeningnowisnothinglessthanaglobalrevolution,aquantumjumpinhistory"(Toffler1980,
1012).
Timing:
"...theagriculturalrevolution..tookthousandsofyearstoplayitselfout.[Theindustrialrevolution]tookamere
threehundredyears.Todayhistoryisevenmoreaccelerative,anditislikelythattheThirdWavewillsweep
acrosshistoryandcompleteitselfinafewdecades"(Toffler1980,10).
Apowerfulnewapproachtohistoricalanalysis:""SocialWaveFrontAnalysis"..looksathistoryasa
sucessionofrollingwavesofchangeandaskswheretheleadingedgeofeachwaveiscarryingus.Itfocusesour
http://www.criticalthink.info/Phil1301/Wave3lec.htm 1/25
attentionnotsomuchonthecontinuitiesofhistory(importantastheyare)asonthediscontinuitiesthe
innovationsandbreakpoints.Itidentifieskeychangepatternsastheyemerge,sothatwecaninfluencethem"
(Toffler1980,13).
TheWavesdefined
THEFIRSTWAVE
Theagriculturalrevolutiontookthousandsofyearstoplayout.
Extentofspread:"TodaytheFirstWavehasvirtuallysubsided.Onlyafewtinytribalpopulations,in
SouthAmericaorPapuaNewGuinea,forexample,remaintobereachedbyagriculture"(Toffler1980,
13).
"..landwasthebasisofeconomy,life,culture,familystructure,andpolitics"(Toffler1980,21).
"..lifewasorganizedaroundthevillage."
"..asimpledivisionoflaborprevailedandafewclearlydefinedcastesandclasses:anobility,a
priesthood,warriors,helots,slavesorserfs.Inallofthem,powerwasrigidlyauthoritarian.Inallofthem,
birthdeterminedone'spositioninlife."
"..theeconomywasdecentralized,sothateachcommunityproducedmostofitsownnecessities"(Toffler
1980,21).
TheFirstWavewasdominantuntilaround16501750.
THESECONDWAVE
Theindustrialrevolutiontookthreehundredyearstomature.
Extentofspread:"..havingrevolutionizedlifeinEurope,NorthAmerica,andsomeotherpartsofthe
globe[thewesternSovietUnion,Japan,HongKong,Singapore,Taiwan,Australia,NewZealand,South
Korea,andpartsofmainlandChina]...continuestospreadasmanycountries,untilnowbasically
agricultural,scrambletobuildsteelmills,autoplants,railroads.."(Toffler1980,14)."Inall,industrial
civilizationembracesroughlyonebillionhumanbeingsonefourththepopulationoftheglobe"(Toffler
1980,24).
"Industrialismwasmorethansmokestacksandassemblylines.Itwasarich,manysidedsocialsystem
thattouchedeveryaspectofhumanlifeandattackedeveryfeatureoftheFirstWavepast...itputthe
tractoronthefarm,thetypewriterintheoffice,therefrigeratorinthekitchen.Itproducedthedaily
newspaperandthecinema,thesubwayandtheDC3...ItgaveusBauhausbuildingsandBarcelonachairs,
sitdownstrikes,vitaminpills,andlengthenedlifespans.Ituniversalizedthewristwatchandtheballot
box"(Toffler1980,22).
TheCivilWarwasfoughtoverwhowouldrulethecontinent:farmersorindustrialists.
MajorchangeswroughtbytheSecondWave:
AshifttoNONRENEWABLEENERGYSOURCEScoal,gas,andoilmademassproduction
possible.
AradicallybetterdistributionsystemMASSDISTRIBUTIONinsteadofcustomdistribution
usingrailroads,highways,andcanals,and"complexnetworksofjobbers,wholesalers,commission
agents,andmanufacturers'representatives."ThisledtoMASSMERCHANDISING.
Industrializationrequiredmobilityfrompeople.Thisresultedintheendofthelarge
multigenerational,extendedfamilyrootedtothesoil."ThesocalledNUCLEARFAMILYfather,
mother,andafewchildren,withnoencumberingrelativesbecamethestandard,sociallyapproved,
"modern"modelinallindustrialsocieties"(Toffler1980,28).
"Tofreeworkersforfactorylabor,keyfunctionsofthefamilywereparceledouttonew,specialized
institutions.EDUCATIONofthechildwasturnedovertoschools.CAREOFTHEAGEDwas
turnedovertopoorhousesoroldagehomesornursinghomes"(Toffler1980,28).
"Asworkshiftedoutofthefieldsandthehome..childrenhadtobepreparedforfactorylife.The
earlymine,mill,andfactoryownersofindustrializingEnglanddiscovered,asAndrewUrewrotein
1835,thatitwas'nearlyimpossibletoconvertpersonspasttheageofpuberty..intousefulfactory
hands.'...Builtonthefactorymodel,MASSEDUCATIONtaughtbasicreading,writing,and
arithmetic...Beneath[thisovertcurriculum,however]layaninvisibleor"covertcurriculum"that
wasfarmorebasic.Itconsistedandstilldoesinmostindustrialnationsofthreecourses:onein
punctuality,oneinobedience,andoneinrote,repetitivework.Factorylabordemandedworkers
whoshowedupontime..Itdemandedworkerswhowouldtakeordersfromamanagement
hierarchywithoutquestioning.Anditdemandedmenandwomenpreparedtoslaveawayat
machinesorinoffices,performingbrutallyrepetitiousoperations"(Toffler1980,29).
Massproductionrequiredgiantpoolsofcapital.Toencourageinvestors,the"conceptoflimited
liabilitywasintroduced"andTHECORPORATIONwascreated.
"InoneSecondWavecountryafteranother,socialinventors,believingthefactorytobethemost
advancedandefficientagencyforproduction,triedtoembodyitsprinciplesinotherorganizations
aswell.Schools,hospitals,prisons,governmentbureaucracies,andotherorganizationsthustookon
manyofthecharacteristicsofthefactoryitsdivisionoflabor,itshierarchicalstructurelandits
metallicimpersonality"(Toffler1980,31)inotherwords,BUREAUCRACY.
"Musicprovidesastrikingexample.AstheSecondWavearrived,concerthallsbegantocropupin
London,Vienna,Paris,andelsewhere.Withthemcametheboxofficeandtheimpresariothe
businessmanwhofinancedtheproductionandthensoldticketstocultureconsumers.
"Themoreticketshecouldsell,naturally,themoremoneyhecouldmake.Hence,moreandmore
seatswereadded.Inturn,however,largerconcerthallsrequiredloudersoundsmusicthatcouldbe
clearlyheardintheverylasttier.Theresultwasashiftfromchambermusictosymphonicforms"
(Toffler1980,32).
Inanagriculturalsociety,informationwassimpleandusuallyconveyedorally.Industrialization,
however,"requiredthetightcoordinationofworkdoneatmanylocations"(Toffler1980,33).
Hence,hugeamountsofINFORMATIONhadtobewrittendownandthenaccuratelyand
efficientlydistributed.Thisgaverisetothepostalservice,tomemos,tothetelephone,telegraph,
andtwowayradio.
Therealsoaroseademandforthedistributionofinformationfromonesourcetomillionsofpeople.
Hence,MASSMEDIAandmassadvertisingarose.Themasscirculationnewspaperandmagazine
becameastandardpartoflife.
HUMANLIFEWASSPLITintotwohalves:PRODUCTIONANDCONSUMPTION.
"Untiltheindustrialrevolution,thevastbulkofallthefood,goods,andservicesproducedbythehumanrace
wasconsumedbytheproducersthemselves[or]theirfamilies"(Toffler1980,37).
"Pecuniarytransactionswereafringeonaworldofnaturaleconomy.
"TheSecondWaveviolentlychangedthissituation...itcreated..asituationinwhichtheoverwhelmingbulk
ofallfood,goods,andserviceswasdestinedforsale,barter,orexchange.Itvirtuallywipedoutofexistence
goodsproducedforone'sownconsumption...andcreatedacivilizationinwhichalmostnoone,notevena
farmer,wasselfsufficientanylonger.Everyonebecamealmosttotallydependentuponfood,goods,or
servicesproducedbysomebodyelse"(Toffler1980,39).
Themarketplacemovedfromaperipheralpositiontothecenterofeveryone'slife."Mostpeoplewere
suckedintothemoneysystem...Thisexplosiveexpansionofthemarketcontributedtothefastestriseinliving
standardstheworldhadeverexperienced"(Toffler1980,40).
"..theobsessiveconcernwithmoney,goods,andthingsisareflectionnotofcapitalismorsocialism,butof
industrialism.ItisareflectionofthecentralroleofthemarketplaceinALLsocietiesinwhichproductionis
divorcedfromconsumption,inwhicheveryoneisdependentuponthemarketplaceratherthanonhisorher
ownproductiveskillsforthenecessitiesoflife"(Toffler1980,41).
"Behaviorcametobeseenasasetoftransactions.Insteadofasocietybasedonfriendship,kinship,ortribal
orfeudalallegiance,therearoseinthewakeoftheSecondWaveacivilizationbasedoncontractualties,
actualorimplied.Evenhusbandsandwivestodayspeakofmaritalcontracts.
"Thecleavagebetweenthesetworolesproducerandconsumercreatedatthesametimeadualpersonality.
Theverysamepersonwho(asaproducer)wastaughtbyfamily,school,andbosstodefergratification,tobe
disciplined,controlled,restrained,obedient,tobeateamplayer,wassimultaneouslytaught(asaconsumer)
toseekinstantgratification,tobehedonisticratherthancalculating,toabandondiscipline,topursue
individualisticpleasureinshort,tobeatotallydifferentkindofperson"(Toffler1980,42).
TheSexualSplit
"Oneofthemostcommonsexualstereotypesinindustrialsocietydefinesmenas'objective'inorientation,
andwomenas'subjective'"(Toffler1980,43).
AstheSecondWavetookover,itdemandedthatmeninparticularlearntowatchtheclock,toobeyorders,to
removetheirpersonalfeelingsfromtheworkplacetobe"objective."Everyoperationdependedonmany
mendoingthecorrectthingatthecorrecttime.Personalfeelingshadnothingtodowiththesituation.
"Thisvictoryofinterdependenceoverselfsufficiency,however,wasneverfullyconsummated.Inoneplace
theolderformofworkstubbornlyheldon.Thisplacewasthehome.
"Eachhomeremainedadecentralizedunitengagedinbiologicalreproduction,inchildrearing,andin
culturaltransmission.Ifonefamilyfailedtoreproduce,ordidapoorjobofrearingitschildrenand
preparingthemforlifeintheworksystem,itsfailuresdidnotnecessarilyendangertheaccomplishmentof
thosetasksbythefamilynextdoor...
"Thehousewifecontinued,asalways,toperformasetofcrucialeconomicfunctions.She'produced,'...[but]
notforthemarket...
"Women,preparedfrombirthforthetasksofreproduction,childrearing,andhouseholddrudgery,
performedtoaconsiderabledegreeinsocialisolation,weretaughttobe'subjective'werefrequently
regardedasincapableofthekindofrational,analyticthoughtthatsupposedlywentwithobjectivity...
"...themodern'battleofthesexes'canbetracedinlargemeasuretotheconflictbetweentwoworkstyles"
(Toffler1980,4345).
THECODEOFSECONDWAVECIVILIZATION
"Everycivilizationhasahiddencodeasetofrulesorprinciplesthatrunthroughallitsactivities...As
industrialismpushedacrosstheplanet,itsuniquehiddendesignbecamevisible.Itconsistedofasetofsix
interrelatedprinciplesthatprogrammedthebehaviorofmillions.Growingnaturallyoutofthedivorceof
productionandconsumption,theseprinciplesaffectedeveryaspectoflifefromsexandsportstoworkandwar"
(Toffler1980,46).
1.Standardization
Usuallyassociatedwithmassproduction,fewpeoplenoticethatwehaveappliedthisprincipletoalmostevery
aspectoflife:standardizedtests,masseducation,payscales,lunchhours,holidays,massmedia,weightsand
measures,currency,prices(asopposedtonegotiation),language,leisureactivities,lifestyle.
2.Specialization
The"jackofalltrades"wasreplacedwiththespecialist.
"[Adam]Smith,inaclassicpassage,describedthemanufactureofapin.Asingleoldstyleworkman,
performingallthenecessaryoperationsbyhimself,hewrote,couldturnoutonlyahandfulofpinseachdayno
morethantwentyandperhapsnotevenone.Bycontrast,Smithdescribeda'manufactory'hehadvisitedin
whichtheeighteendifferentoperationsrequiredtomakeapinwerecarriedoutbytenspecializedworkers,each
performingonlyoneorafewsteps.Togethertheywereabletoproducemorethanfortyeightthousandpinsper
dayoverfortyeighthundredperworker"(Toffler1980,49).
Specializationbroughttheemergenceoftheprofessions."Whenevertheopportunityaroseforsomegroupof
specialiststomonopolizeesotericknowledgeandkeepnewcomersoutoftheirfield,professionsemerged...
Thus,healthinSecondWavesocietiescametobeseenasaproductprovidedbyadoctorandahealthdelivery
bureaucracy,ratherthanaresultofintelligentselfcarebythepatient.Educationwassupposedly'produced'by
theteacher"(Toffler1980,50).
"..Leninarguedthatthemassescouldnotbringaboutarevolutionwithoutprofessionalhelp.Whatwasneeded,
heasserted,wasan'organizationofrevolutionaries'limitedinmembershipto'peoplewhoseprofessionisthatof
arevolutionary"(Toffler1980,51).
3.Synchronization
SecondWavepeopledealtwithtimedifferently."Inamarketdependentsystem...timeequalsmoney.Expensive
machinescannotbeallowedtositidly...thehighcostofmachineryandthecloseinterdependenceoflabor
requiredamuchmorerefinedsynchronization.
"Ifonegroupofworkersinaplantwaslateincompletingatask,othersdownthelinewouldbefurtherdelayed.
Thuspunctuality,neververyimportantinagriculturalcommunities,becameasocialnecessity,andclocksand
watchesbegantoproliferate"(Toffler1980,512).
"Notbycoincidence,childreninindustrialculturesweretaughttotelltimeatanearlyage"(Toffler1980,52).
"...sociallife,too,becameclockdrivenandadaptedtomachinerequirements.Certainhoursweresetasidefor
leisure.Standardlengthvacations,holidays,orcoffeebreakswereinterspersedwiththeworkschedules...
"...chieflymenbecamethemostconditionedtoclocktime...Women,primarilyengagedinnoninterdependent
housework,workedtolessmechanicalrhythms...SecondWavehusbandscontinuallycomplainedthattheir
wiveskeptthemwiating,thattheyhadnorregardfortime,thatittookthemforevertodress,thattheywere
alwayslateforappointments"(Toffler1980,52).
"Forsimilarreasonsurbanpopulationstendedtolookdownuponruralfolkasslowandunreliable"(Toffler
1980,52).
4.Concentrationofenergy,money,andpower.
Webecame"almosttotallydependentonhighlyconcentrateddepositsoffossilfuel.
"[TheSecondWave]..alsoconcentratedpopulation,strippingthecountrysideofpeopleandrelocatingthemin
gianturbancenters"(Toffler1980,53).
Workwasconcentratedinthefactory.
Thepoorwereconcentratedinghettoes.(InFirstWavesocietiesthepoorlivewithrelatives.)
Criminalswereconcentratedinjails.(InFirstWavesocieties,"criminalsarefined,whipped,orbanishedfrom
onesettlementtoanother.")
Theinsanewereconcentratedinassylums.(InFirstWavesocieties,theinsanestayedwiththeirfamilies,or
weresupportedbythecommunity.)
Theeducationofchildrenwasconcentratedinschools.(InFirstWavesocieties,childrenareeducatedinthe
home,andthenbytutorslivingwiththefamily,orbythelocalclergyman.)
"Theearlynineteenthcentury,infact,hasbeencalledTHETIMEOFTHEGREATINCARCERATIONS
whencriminalswereroundedupandconcentratedinprisons,thementallyillroundedupandconcentratedin
'lunaticassylums',andchildrenroundedupandconcentratedinschools,exactlyasworkerswereconcentratedin
factories"(Toffler1980,53).
ConcentrationhascontinuedtooperateastheSecondWavehasbecomestronger.Thereareonlythreemajor
autocompaniesintheU.S.TwoJapanesefirmsproducealltheVCR'sintheworld.Ineachareaofproduction
aluminum,beer,cigarettes,breakfastfoods,etc.threetofivecompaniesproducealmostallofit.
5.Maximization
TheSecondWavecreatedinusan"infatuationwithbignessandgrowth...'Big'becamesynonymouswith
'efficient'"(Toffler1980,54).
TheworkersandmanagersofMatsushitaElectricCompanyinJapan,chantthissongeverymorningwhenthey
exercisetogether:
"...Doingourbesttopromoteproduction,Sendingourgoodstothepeopleoftheworld,Endlesslyand
continuously,Likewatergushingfromafountain.Grow,industry,Grow,Grow,Grow!Harmonyandsincerity!
MatsushitaElectric!"(Toffler1980,55).
By1960,thefiftylargestcorporationsintheUnitedStatesemployedanaverageof80,000workerseach.
By1970,AT&T,byitself,employed956,000people."Thismeant,atanaveragehouseholdsizeof3.3,thatwell
over[threemillion]peopleweredependentuponpaychecksfromthisonecompanyalone"(Toffler1980,55).
"StalinpushedevenharderformaximumscaleandbuiltvastnewprojectsthesteelcomplexatMagnitogorsk,
anothatZaporozhstal,theBalkhashcoppersmeltingplant,thetractorplantsatKharkovandStalingrad.He
wouldaskhowlargeagivenAmericaninstallationwas,thenorderconstructionofanevenlargerone"(Toffler
1980,56).
6.Centralization
InBusiness
"Theearlyrailroadsprovideaclassicillustration.Comparedwithotherbusinessestheywerethegiantsoftheir
day.IntheUnitedStatesin1850onlyfortyonefactorieshadacapitalizationof$250,000ormore.Bycontrast,
theNewYorkCentralRailroadasearlyas1860boastedacapitalizationof$30,000,000.Torunsucha
gargantuanenterprise,newmanagementmethodswereneeded.
"Theearlyrailroadmanagers,therefore,likethemanagersofthespaceprograminourownera,hadtoinvent
newtechniques.Theystandardizedtechnologies,fares,andschedules.Theysynchronizedoperationsover
hundredsofmiles.Theycreatedspecializednewoccupationsanddepartments.Theyconcentratedcapital,
energy,andpeople.Theyfoughttomaximizethescaleoftheirnetworks.Andtoaccomplishallthistheycreated
newformsoforganizationbasedoncentralizationofinformationandcommand"(Toffler1980,57).
"...centralizedmanagementcametoberegardedasanadvanced,sophisticatedtoolinalltheSecondWave
nations.
InPolitics
"Inpolitics,too,theSecondWaveencouragedcentralization.IntheUnitedStates,asearlyasthelate1780's,this
wasillustratedbythebattletoreplacetheloose,decentralistArticlesofConfederationwithamorecentralist
Constitution"(Toffler1980,57).
IntheEconomy
TheCENTRALBANKwasacrucialinvention.Itfacilitatedthecentralcontrolofmoneyandcredit.
(TheBankofEngland,leBanquedeFrance,theReichsbank,theFederalReserveSystemintheU.S.)
NB:Alltheseprinciples,together,ledtotheriseofBureaucracy.
WHORUNSTHINGS
1.Managers/administratorstheyintegrateallthespecializationstheylinkallthepartsofthesystem.
2.Biggovernment"thebiggestcoordinatorofall"(64).Throughcoercivepowersandtaxrevenues,big
governmentacceleratedthesecondwave'simplementation.
3.LeadingbusinessmenandlawyersonciviccommitteesandboardsAninformalpowerpyramidwhich
facilitatedsecondwavesystems.
4.InvestmentmogulsAtthetopofthepowerpyramid,theirinvestmentscreatetheparametersforallother
activities.
NB:"Today,astheThirdWaveofchangebeginstobatteratthisfortressofmanagerialpower,thefirstfleeting
cracksareappearinginthepowersystem.Demandsforparticipationinmanagement,forshareddecision
making,forworker,consumer,andcitizencontrol,andforanticipatorydemocracyarewellingupinnationafter
nation.Newwaysoforganizingalonglesshierarchicalandmoreadhocraticlinesarespringingupinthemost
advancedindustries.Andmanagersbecomemoreandmoredependentuponinformationfrombelow.Elites
themselves,therefore,arebecominglesspermanentandsecure.Allthesearemerelyearlywarnings
indicationsofthecomingupheavalinthepoliticalsystem.
"TheThirdWave,alreadybeginningtobatterattheseindustrialstructures,opensfantasticopportunitiesfor
socialandpoliticalrenovation.Intheyearsjustaheadstartlingnewinstitutionswillreplaceourunworkable,
oppressive,andobsoleteintegrationalstructures"(678).
THEHIDDENPOLITICALSTRUCTURE
Onthesurfacethepoliticalsystemsofdifferentcountrieslookunique.Underneath,theirstructuresarethesame.
Landiscentraltoeverysystem(aholdoverfromtheFirstWave).Allelectionsarebasedonageographic
division,notonsocialclass,occupation,orethnicgroup.
Thefactorymodelofeverycomponentdependingontheperformanceofothercomponentsrequiredthe
suppressionoflocalismandtheencouragementofanationalandinternationalconsciousness.
TheideaofrepresentationisalsocentralaholdoverfromtheFirstWaveperceptionthatmostpeoplearerural
farmersanddon'thavetheeducationorbrainstogovernthemselves,butratherneedtoberepresentedbyoneof
theeducatedelite.
Ineverycountry,thereisauniversalsetofcomponents:
1.Individualsarmedwiththevote.
2.Partiesforcollectingthevotes.
3.Candidateswho,whentheywin,becomerepresentativesofthevoters.
4.Legislatures(parliaments,diets,assemblies)inwhichrepresentativemanufacturelawsbyvoting.
5.Executives(presidents,primeministers,partysecretaries)whofeedpoliciesintothelawmakingmachine,
andthenenforcetheresultinglaws.
Thissamestructurewasrecreatedatthestate,county,andlocallevel,creatingahierarchicalstructurewhichis
alltiedtogether.
This"lawfactory"isusedbythoseinpowertomanipulatetheglobalsystem...ELECTIONSarea"reassurance
ritual"which"takethesteamoutofprotestsfrombelow"(76).
NB:"Inthissystem,representativegovernmentwasthepoliticalequivalentofthefactory...Likemostfactoriesit
wasmanagedfromabove.Andlikemostfactories,itisnowincreasinglyobsolete,avictimoftheadvancing
ThirdWave"(78).
THEIMPERIALDRIVE
"SecondWavecivilizationcouldnotexist...[without]thehiddensubsidyofcheapresources"fromFirstWave
countries.Hence:
thedriveforempire,forcontroloverdistantlands.
theracistattitudesandprejudiceswhichjustifiedthedominationofforeignlands"thewhiteman's
burden".
"...Grandimperialismpaidoffhandsomely.AstheeconomichistorianWilliamWoodruffputit:'Itwasthe
exploitationoftheseterritoriesandthegrowingtradedonewiththemthatobtainedfortheEuropeanfamily
wealthonascaleneverseenbefore.'BuiltdeepintotheverystructureoftheSecondWaveeconomy,feedingits
ravenousneedforresources,imperialismmarchedacrosstheplanet.
"In1492whenColumbusfirstsetfootintheNewWorld,Europeanscontrolledonly9percentoftheglobe.By
1801theyruledathird.By1880,twothirds.Andby1935Europeanspoliticallycontrolled85percentofthe
landsurfaceoftheearthand70percentofitspopulation."(9091).
AttheendoftheSecondWorldWar,theUnitedStatesgainedeconomiccontrolofmuchoftheworldbythe
creationofthreeinstitutions:
1.InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)compelleditsmembernationstopegtheircurrencytotheAmerican
dollarortogold(mostofwhichwasheldbytheU.S.).
2.TheWorldBankprovidedfundstorebuildafterthewar,andalsotobuildfurtherinfrastructureinthird
worldcountriesforthemoreefficientmvementofrawmaterialstoSecondWavenations.
3.GeneralAgreementonTariffsandTrade(GATT)liberalizedtrade,makingitdifficultforthepoorer,less
technologicallyadvancedcountries,toprotecttheirtinyfledglingindustries.
Summary:"..theeconomicgrowthoftheSecondWavenationswouldinallprobabilityhavebeen
stunted..withouttheconcealedsubsidiesmadepossiblebyimperialism...SecondWaveCivilizationmight
wellbetodaywhereitwasin1920or1930"(97).
NB:"...rampantindustrialismwasmorethananeconomic,political,orsocialsystem.Itwasalsoawayoflife
andawayofthinking.ItproducedaSecondWavementality...Thismentalitystandstodayasakeyobstacleto
thecreationofaworkableThirdWavecivilization"(97).
THESECONDWAVEMENTALITY("IndustReality")
"..theSecondWavebroughtwithitaredefinitionofGod...ofjustice...oflove...ofpower...ofbeauty.Itstirred
upnewideas,attitudes,andanalogies.Itsubvertedandsupersededancientassumptionsabouttime,space,
matter,andcausality.Apowerful,coherentworldviewemergedthatnotonlyexplainedbutjustifiedSecond
Wavereality"(98).
Theworldseemstobedividedintoleftwingandrightwingadvocates,totalitarianregimesanddemocracies,
peopleineverycircumstancedividedintotwoormoreideologicalcamps.
"Whatfewnoticed,however,intheheatofthispropagandawar,wasthatwhileeachsidepromotedadifferent
ideology,bothwereessentiallyhawkingthesamesuperideology"aversionofreality,ofoverarchingideasand
assumptions,taughttoallchildrenofindustrialismsothattheymightunderstandtheirworld.Thisworldview
wasbasedonthreedeeplyintertwinedbeliefs:
1.Natureisanobjectwaitingtobeexploited.(Earlierculturesacceptedpovertyasapartoftheharmonyof
mankindwiththesurroundingecology.)
2.Humansarenotmerelyinchargeofnature,theyarethepinnacleofalongprocessofevolution,ofnatural
selection..."SocialDarwinism."(arationalizationforimperialism).
3.Theprogressprincipletheideathathistoryflowsirreversiblytowardabetterlifeforhumanity.This
wasthecommonthemeofLeibniz,Turgot,Condorcet,Kant,Lessing,JohnStuartMill,Hegel,Marx,
Darwin,andcountlesslesserthinkers..Theyarguedoverthedetails...buttheyallnoddedinagreementat
thenotionofprogressitself(102).
CONSEQUENCES:
Theseunderlyingbeliefs,taughttochildrenofindustrialization,ledtothefollowingpatternsofbehavior:
Timeobsession,alwaysglancingattheirwatches.Thistimeconsciousnesswasnecessaryforthe
synchronizationrequiredinindustrialsystems.Itcontrastedsharplywiththeslowerpaceandlongerview
ofagriculturalsocieties.
"SecondWavecivilizationdidmorethancuttimeupintomorepreciseandstandardchunks.Italsoplaced
thesechunksinastraightlinethatextendedindefinitelybackintothepastandforwardintothefuture.It
madetimelinear.
"Indeed,theassumptionthattimeislinelikeissodeeplyembeddedinourthoughtsthatitishardforhtoseof
usraisedinSecondWavesocietiestoconceiveofanyalternative.Yetmanypreindustrialsocieties,andsome
FirstWavesocietieseventoday,seetimeasacircle,notastraightline.FromtheMayastotheBuddhistsand
theHindus,timewascircularandrepetitive,historyrepeatingitselfendlessly,livesperhapsreliving
themselvesthroughreincarnation....ThenotionofcirculartimeisfoundinPlatoandAristotle...Itwas
taughtbyPythagoras."(104).
Aspatiallyextendedculture.Agriculturehadrequiredpermanentsettlements.Industrialismcausedvast
populationstomigrateinsearchofjobs.Huge,teemingpopulationswerecompressedintobooming
industrialcenters.Theentirelandscapewasdramaticallyreworked.
Emphasisonprecisemeasurement.Justastimehadtobepreciselyusedtocoordinateactivities,so
measurementofspaceandresourceshadtobemeasuredbycommonstandards."Aday'sride"wasno
longeranadequatemeasureofdistance.
An"atomistic"viewofreality.Therewasadeliberateassaultonthenotionofoneness.Tofacilitate
industrialization,peoplehadtobetornloosefromtheirextendedfamiliesandthechurch."Industrial
capitalismneededarationaleforindividualism...Thepersonwasnolongermerelyapassiveappendageof
tribe,caste,orclanbutafree,autonomousindividual.Eachindividualhadtherighttoownproperty,to
acquiregoods,towheelanddeal,toprosper,tostarveaccordingtohisorherownactiveefforts"(111).
Explanationsthroughcausality.Newton'sdiscoveryofgravityledeventuallytothebeliefthat"notonly
thecosmosandnaturebutsocietyandpeoplebehavedaccordingtocertainfixedandpredictablelaws"
(113).
"..auniversethathadseemedcomplex,cluttered,unpredictable,richlycrowded,mysterious,andmessy,began
tolookneatandtidy"(113).
"Thisnewcausality,combinedwiththenewimagesoftime,space,andmatter,liberatedmuchofthehumanrace
fromthetyrannyofancientmumbojumbo...but[it]alsocreateditsownnewprison,anindustrialmentalitythat
derogatedorignoredwhatitcouldnotquantify,thatfrequentlypraisedcriticalrigorandpunishedimagination,
thatreducedpeopletooversimplifiedprotoplasmicunits,thatultimatelysoughtanengineeringsolutionforany
problem"(114).
RESULTSOFALLTHESEFACTORS:
Thespreadofliteracy
Improvementofroadsandtransport
Awideningsplitbetweenconsumerandproducer
Anewsocialcharacter:industrialman
Dependenceofsurvivalonmoney
Creationofthenuclearfamily
Factorylikeschools
Man'simageoftheworldcontrolledbymassmedia
Mostpeopleworkforabigcorporation
Successivegenerationsgrewtallerthantheirparents
Nakednesscametoberegardedasshamefulinventionofnightclothes
Eatingbecametechnologizeddiffusionofforksandotherspecializedtableimplements
Damagetotheearth'sfragilebiosphere
EnslavementofIndiansimperialism
Massificationofwarunleashedtheatom
FACTORSWHICHMAKECONTINUATIONOFTHESECOND
WAVEIMPOSSIBLE:
Thebiospherewillnolongertoleratetheindustrialassault.
Nonrenewableenergysourcesaredryingup(oneofthehiddensubsidiesoftheSecondWave){Prediction
hereweareattheendofcheapenergy}
Thesupplyofcheaprawmaterialsisdryingupaswereachtheendofcolonialism.{Predictionhere
costsofthingswillrisesubstantially}
Disintegrativepressuresinsidethesystempeopleandsystemsarebecomingstrainedbeyondtheultimate
breakingpoint:thefamilysystemintheU.S.,thetelephonesysteminFrance,thecommuterrailsystemin
Tokyo,thewelfaresystem,thepostalsystems,theschoolsystem,healthdeliverysystems,etc.
NB:"Oncewethinkintermsofsuccessivewavesofinterrelatedchange,ofthecollisionofthesewaves,we
grasptheessentialfactofourgenerationthatindustialismisdyingawayandwecanbeginsearchingamong
signsofchangeforwhatistrulynew,whatisnolongerindustrial.WecanidentifytheThirdWave.
"ItisthisThirdWaveofchangethatwillframetherestofourlives.Ifwearetosmooththetransitionbetween
theolddyingcivilizationandthenewonthatistakingform,ifwearetomaintainasenseofselfandtheability
tomanageourownlivesthroughtheintensifyingcrisesthatlieahead,wemustbeabletorecognizeandcreate
ThirdWaveinnovations"(124).
THETHIRDWAVETHENEWSYNTHESIS
ThenewestwavecalledthetechnetronicagebyZbigniewBrzezinski,calledthepostindustrialsociety
bySociologistDanielBell,oftencommonlycalledtheinformationageshouldtakeonlyafewdecadesto
mature.
Toseethenew,emerging,patternswemustresisttwopowerfulSecondWaveformsofthinking:
1.Analysis.Wecannotseethefutureinthesamewaywesolveproblemsbydismantlingproblemsinto
theircomponentparts.Wemustpractice,instead,synthesis.
2.Linearity.Wemustresistthetemptationtobeseducedbystraightlines.Tomorrowwillnotbejustan
extensionoftoday.Trends,nomatterhowpowerful,donotcontinueinastraightline.
ThenewtechnologiesoftheThirdWavewillbring:
Diversified,renewable,energysources.(Ex.bioelectronics,piezoelectronics,newcomputersystems
whichshuteverythingdownfornanosecondsbetweenactualactivity.)
Methodsofproductionwhichmakefactoriesandassemblylinesobsolete.
Thischangewilldrivenbytwofactors:
theriseofdynamicnewindustriesbasedonscientificbreakthroughs:quantumelectronics,information
theory,molecularbiology,oceanic,nucleonics,ecology,andthespacesciences
Enhancedmanipulativeabilitiesviacomputers,dataprocessing,aerospace,sophisticatedpetrochemicals,
semiconductors,advancedcommunications,solidstatephysics,systemsengineering,artificial
intelligence,fuzzylogic,polymerchemistry.
"..fourclustersofrelatedindustriesarepoisedformajorgrowthandarelikelytobecomethebackbone
industriesoftheThirdWave:
1.Electronicsandcomputers...
AccordingtoComputerworldmagazine,"Iftheautoindustryhaddonewhatthecomputerindustryhas
doneinthelast30years,aRollsRoycewouldcost$2.50andget2,000,000milestothegallon."
A"radicallyaccelerated..energycrisis...[will]carryustowardprocessesandproductsthataremiserlyin
theirenergyrequirements"(141).
2.Thespaceindustry...
"Despitedelays,fivespaceshuttlesmaysoonbemovingcargoandpeoplebackandforthbetweenthe
earthandouterspaceonaweeklyschedule.Theimpactofthisisasyetunderestimatedbythepublic,but
manycompaniesintheUnitedStatesandEuroperegardthe"highfrontier"asthesourceofthenext
revolutioninhightechnologyandareactingaccordingly"(142).
Manyhightechmaterialsrequiredelicatehandling...SPACEMANUFACTURINGisahottopicamong
scientists,engineers,andhightechexecutives."McDonnellDouglasofferstopharmaceuticalcompaniesa
spaceshuttledevicethatwillseparaterareenzymesfromhumancells.Glassmanufacturersarelookingat
waysofmakingmaterialsforlasersandfiberopticsinspace.Spaceproducedsinglecrystal
semiconductorsmakeearthmademodelsseemprimitive.Urokinase,abloodclotdissolverneededfor
patientssufferingfromcertainformsofblooddisease,nowcosts$2,500perdose.AccordingtoJescovon
Puttkamer,chiefofspaceindustrializationstudiesforNASA,itcouldbemanufacturedinspaceforless
thanonefifththatamount...
Moreimportantarethetotallynewproductsthatsimplycannotbemadeonearthatvirtuallyanyprice.
TRW,anaerospaceandelectronicscompany,hasidentifiedfourhundreddifferentalloysthatwecannot
manufactureonearthbecauseofthepullofgravity.GeneralElectric,meanwhile,hasbegunthedesignof
aspacefurnace.
3.Pushingintothedepthsofthesea...
Themirrorimageofourdriveintospace..."Thefirsthistoricwaveofsocialchangeonearthcamewhen
ourancestorsceasedtorelyonforagingandhunting,andbeganinsteadtodomesticateanimalsand
cultivatethesoil.Wearenowatpreciselythisstageinourrelationshiptotheseas."(143).
Enoughproteincouldbegrownintheseatoendworldhunger.
Intelligentaquaculturecouldalsopreservethefragilebiosphereofourplanet.
Oilcanbe"grown"intheocean.Ithasalreadybeendemonstratedthatalgae,highinoilcontent,
canbegrownintheocean.Theprocessisontheedgeofbecomingeconomicallyeffective.
Theoceanscontainanoverwhelmingwealthofminerals.TheRedSeaaloneholdsanestimated
$3.4billionworthofzinc,silver,copper,lead,andgold.Thisdoesnotincludephosphateoreswhich
areusedforlandbasedfarmfertilization,butalsopotatoshapedmanganesenodulesarenewable
resourcewhichconstantlyformontheoceanfloor.
Thegeneindustry...
Probablythebiggestfutureofthemall.Informationongeneticsisdoublingeverytwoyears.
LordRitchieCalderexplainsthat"Justaswehavemanipulatedplasticsandmetals,wearenow
manufacturinglivingmaterials."
MajorcompaniesEliLilly,HOffmannLaRoche,G.D.Searle,Upjohn,Merck"dreamofplacing
enzymesintheautomobiletomonitorexhaustandsenddataonpollutiontoamicroprocesorthatwillthen
adjusttheengine.TheyspeakofwhatTheNewYorkTimescalls'metalhungrymicrobesthatmightbe
usedtominevaluabletracemetalsfromoceanwater'"(146).
Someotherideasbeingdiscussed:
Wecouldbreedpeoplewithcowlikestomachssotheycandigestgrassandhay,thuseliminatingthe
foodproblembymodifyingustoeatlowerdownonthefoodchain.
Wecouldbiologicallyalterworkerstofitjobrequirementsforexample,creatingpilotswithfaster
reactiontimesorassemblylineworkersneurologicallydesignedtodoourmonotonousworkforus.
Wecouldclonesoldierstodoourfighting.
Wecouldusegeneticforecastingtopreeliminate"unfit"babies.
Wecouldgrowreserveorgansforourselves.
Wecouldcreatelifeformswhichconvertsunlightintoelectrochemicalenergy,replacingnuclear
powerplants.
Wecanreduceoreliminatetheneedforoilintheproductionofplastics,fertilizer,clothes,paint,
pesticides,andthousandsofotherproducts.
Wecandrasticallyimprovetheproductionofwood,wool,andothernaturalgoods.
4.Demassificationofthemedia
Asthequantityofinformationavailabletopeopleexpands,theybecomelessandlessabletocopewithit.
Peoplefallbacktopayingattentiontoonlywhatisimportanttothem.
Henceweseethelossofreadershipofnewspapersandmassmagazines,andthelossofviewersofthe
large,generictelevisionchannels.Instead,weseeariseinthenumberofspecialtychannelsappealingto
narrowsegmentsofthepopulation.Likewise,minicirculationspecialtyweeklynewslettersand
magazinesareexplosivelyincreasing.
Thenewmediaisnot"mass"insteaditisspecialized,aimedatsmall,specialinterest,regional,oreven
localmarkets.Cablesystemsarebeingdesignedfortwowaycommunicationforevenmorerefined
customization.
"Allthesedifferentdevelopmentshaveonethingincommon:theyslicethemasstelevisionpublicinto
segments,andeachslicenotonlyincreasesourculturaldiversity,itcutsdeeplyintothepowerofthe
networksthathaveuntilnowsocompletelydominatedourimagery"(164).
"TheThirdWavethusbeginsatrulyneweratheageofthedemassifiedmedia.Anewinfosphereis
emergingalongsidethenewtechnosphere.Andthiswillhaveafarreachingimpactonthemost
importantsphereofall,theoneinsideourskulls.Fortakentogether,thesechangesrevolutionizeour
imagesoftheworldandourabilitytomakesenseofit"(165).
Oneproblemthistrendpresentsisthatfewerandfewerpeopleseekthelargerpicture.Theoversupplyof
informationhascausedthemtosettlefor"blips"ofinformation,whichtheythenattempttostringtogether
inasensiblemannertoaccountforchangesintheirenvironment.
5.Anintelligentenvironment.
Homecomputers(PC's)arefacilitatingelectroniccommunities(TheSource,Internet,listservs).
Microprocessorsallowtheautomationofourentireenvironment.
"Imagine,you'reatwork,thephonerings.It'sFred,yourhouse.Whilemonitoringthemorningnews
reportsforstoriesofrecentburglaries,Fredpickedupaweatherbulletinwarningofpendingheavyrain.
ThisjoggedFred'sbubblememoriestorunaroutineroofmaintenancecheck.Apotentialleakwasfound.
Beforecallingyou,FredphonedSlimforadvice.Slimisaranchstylehomedowntheblock...Fredand
Slimoftenshareddatabankcsandeachknewtheywereprogrammedwithaneffectivesearchtechnique
foridentifyinghouseholdservices...You'velearnedtotrustFred'sjudgment,andapprovetherepairs.The
restisratherstraightforward,Fredcallstheroofer..."(171).
Inanotherdirection,PeterRitner,intheSocietyofSpace,wroteofwhathecalled'weaveproblems.'"He
warnedthatwewouldincreasinglyfacecrisesthatwere'notsusceptibleto'causeandeffectanalysis'but
wouldrequire'mutualdependenceanalysis'notcomposedofeasilydetachableelementsbutofhundreds
ofcooperatinginfluencesfromdozensofindependent,overlappingsources.'
"Becauseitcanrememberandinterrelatelargenumbersofcausalforces,thecomputercanhelpuscope
withsuchproblemsatadeeperthancustomarylevel.Itcansiftvastmassesofdatatofindsubtlepatterns.
Itcanhelpassemble"blips"intolarger,moremeaningfulwholes.Givenasetofassumption,oramodel,it
cantraceouttheconsequencesofalternativedecisions,anddoitmoresystematicallyandcompletelythan
anyindividualnormallycould.Itcanevensuggestimaginativesolutionstocertainproblemsby
identifyingnovelorhithertounnoticedrelationshipsamongpeopleandresources."(174)
Itcouldbeoneantidotetoblipculture.
"Atthesametime,theintelligentenvironmentmayeventuallybegintochangenotmerelythewaywe
analyzeproblemsandintegrateinformation,buteventhechemistryofourbrains.ExperimentsbyDavid
Krech,MarianDiamond,MarkRosenzweig,andEdwardBennett,amongothers,haveshownthatanimals
exposedtoan"enriched"environmenthavelargercerebralcortices,moreglialcells,biggerneurons,more
activeneurotransmitters,andlargerbloodsuppliestothebrainthananimalsinacontrolgroup.Canitbe
that,aswecomplexifytheenvironmentandmakeitmoreintelligent,weshallmakeourselvesmore
intelligentaswell?"(175)
6.Anewsocialmemory...
"Ourremarkableabilitytofileandretrievesharedmemoriesisthesecretofourspecies'evolutionary
success.Andanythingthatsignificantlyaltersthewayweconstruct,store,orusesocialmemorytherefor
touchesontheverywellspringsofdestiny"(176).
"Twicebeforeinhistoryhumankindhasrevolutionizeditssocialmemory.Today,inconstructinganew
infosphere,wearepoisedonthebrinkofanothersuchtransformation"(176).
Originallyhumangroupsstoredtheirsharedmemoriesinthemindsofindividuals(likeHomer,tribal
elders,wisemen,etc.).
TheSecondWavesmashedthememorybarrierbyspreadingmassliteracy.Nowsystematicrecordscould
bekept.Librariesandmuseumswerebuilt."Byincreasingthestoreofcumulativeknowledge,it
acceleratedalltheprocessesofinnovationandsocialchange"(176).
Todayweareabouttomakeanotherquantumleap.Withmassivefilesofinformationonmainframes,with
aPCinalmosteveryperson'shands,wearerecordingtheactivitiesofthecivilizationinfinegraindetail,
andwehaverandomaccesstotherecords."..weshallbeforelonghavetheclosestthingtoacivilization
withtotalrecall"(177).
7.Developmentofthe"electroniccottage"
Massproduction,likemassmedia,isnearlyobsoleteandonthewayout."..while'thelesshighly
developedcountries[those]withaGNPofbetweenU.S.$10002000percapitaperannumconcentrate
onmassproducedmanufacturers'the'mosthighlydevelopedcountries..concentrateontheexportofone
offandshortrunmanufacturedgoodsdependingonhighlyskilledlabourand..highresearchcosts:
computers,specialisedmachinery,aircraft,automatedproductionsystems,hightechnologypaints,
pharmaceuticalproducts,hightechnologypolymersandplastics'"(182).
"Thestepbeyondthis,ofcourse,iscompletecustomizationtheactualmanufactureofoneofakind
products.Andthatisclearlythedirectioninwhichweareheading:productscustomcutforindividual
users"(183).
"Theshifttowardcustomizationisperhapsbestsymbolizedbyacomputerbasedlasergunintroduceda
fewyearsagointotheclothingindustry...[it]operatesonaradicallydifferentprinciple.Itdoesnotcut10
or50or100oreven500shirtsorjacketsatatime.Itcutsoneatatime.Butitactuallycutsfasterand
cheaperthanthemassproductionmethodsemployeduntilnow.Itreduceswasteandeliminatestheneed
forinventory.Forthesereasons,accordingtothepresidentofGenesco,oneofthelargestmanufacturers
ofapparelintheUnitedStates,'Thelasermachinescanbeprogrammedtofillanorderforonegarment
economically.'Whatthatsuggestsisthatsomedayevenstandardsizesmaydisappear.Itmaybepossible
toreadone'smeasurementsintoatelephone,orpointavideocameraatoneself,thusfeedingdatadirectly
intothecomputer,whichinturnwillinstructthemachinetoproduceasinglegarment,cutexactlytoone's
personal,individualizeddimensions."(184).
Butthereisalogicalstepbeyondthis."Hiddeninsideouradvancetoanewproductionsystemisa
potentialforsocialchangesobreathtakinginscopethatfewamongushavebeenwillingtofaceits
meaning...Apartfromencouragingsmallerworkunits,apartfrompermittingadecentralizationandde
urbanizationofproduction,apartfromalteringtheactualcharacterofwork,thenewproductionsystem
couldshiftliterallymillionsofjobsoutofthefactoriesandofficeintowhichtheSecondWavesweptthem
andrightbackwheretheycamefromoriginally:thehome.Ifthisweretohappen,everyinstitutionwe
know,fromthefamilytotheschoolandthecorporation,wouldbetransformed"(194).
Therearemanyreasonswhypeoplewouldnotwanttomovebacktotheirownhomestowork...."Yet
therewereequally,ifnotmore,compellingreasonsthreehundredyearsagotobelievepeoplewouldnever
moveoutofthehomeandfieldtoworkinfactories.Afterall,theyhadlaboredintheirowncottagesand
thenearbylandfor10,000years,notamere300.Theentirestructureoffamilylife,theprocessofchild
rearingandpersonalityformation,thewholesystemofpropertyandpower,theculture,thedailystruggle
forexistencewereallboundtothehearthandthesoil...yetthesechainswereslashedinshortorderas
soonasanewsystemofproductionappearedl...Todaythatishappeningagain"(195).
Thereisalreadyanappreciableamountofworkbeingdoneatpeople'shomes:salesmen,architects,
designers,consultants,therapists,psychologists,musicteachers,languageinstructors,artdealers,
investmentcounselors,insuranceagents,lawyers,academicresearchers,andmanyotherprofessionaland
technicalpeople.
"Theseare,moreover,amongthemostrapidlyexpandingworkclassifications"(197).Theadditionof
PC's,FAXmachines,networksontelephonelines,theinformationhighway,teleconferencing,etc.,the
numberofpeoplecapableofworkingfromhomeincreasesdramatically.
Considerthecostincentivestocompanies.Commuting,whichtheyindirectlysubsidize,runsanaverage
of29timesasmuchastheinstallationoftelecommunicationequipmentinaperson'shome.Inaddition,
hugesavingsinrealestatecosts,capitalbuildinginvestments,andbuildingmaintenancecanbehad.
Stayingathomewillalsoreducepollution,andthecostofcleaningitup.
Onthehomeside,asshorterworkweeksbecomecommon,"thehigherratioofcommutingtimeto
workingtime[becomes]moreirrational,frustrating,andabsurd"(203).Inaddition,sharedworkhas
traditionallyhelpedtobindfamiliestogether."..whencampaignersforfamilylifediscoverthepossibilities
inherentinthetransferofworktothehomewemaywellseearisingdemandforpoliticalmeasuresto
speeduptheprocesstaxincentives,forexample,andnewconceptionsofworkers'rights"(203).
8.Thehomecenteredsociety
Astheelectroniccottagespreads,achainofconsequenceswilloccurinsociety:
Greatercommunitystabilityduetolessforcedmobility,lessstressontheindividual,fewertransient
humanrelationships,andagreaterparticipationincommunitylife.
Arenaissanceamongvoluntaryorganizationslikechurches,women'sgroups,lodges,clubs,athletic
andyouthorganizations.
Energyrequirementswillbereducedduetoenergydecentralization.Energydemandwouldbe
spreadout,makingiteasiertousesolar,wind,andotheralternativeenergytechnologies.
Theautoindustry,oilcompanies,andcommercialrealestatedeveloperswouldbehurt.
Electronicsindustry,computercompanies,andthecommunicationsindustrieswouldflourish.
Increasingly,workerswouldownthemeansofproduction(referenceMarx,Marcuse).
9.Familieswillbecomenonnuclear.
Manysaythefamilyisfallingaparttoday.Theydefinethefamilyasahusbandbreadwinner,mother
housekeeper,andanumebrofchildren.Thisisthe"nuclearfamily"whichwascreatedandidealizedby
theSecondWave.Itisfallingapart,becausetheSecondWaveindustrialcomplexsystemisfallingapart.
Ifwereallywanttomaintainthenuclearfamily,here'swhatwewouldhavetodo:
FreezealltechnologyinitsSecondWavestagetomaintainafactorybased,massproduction
society.
Blocktheriseoftheserviceandprofessionalsectorsintheeconomy.Whitecollar,professional,
andtechnicalworkersarelesstraditional,lessfamilyoriented,moreintellectuallyand
psychologicallymobilethanbluecollarworkers.
"Solve"theenergycrisisbyapplyingnuclearandotherhighlycentralizedenergyprocesses.The
nuclearfamilysurvivesbetterinacentralizedsociety.
Returntomassmedia,andbancabletelevision,cassettes,localandregionalmagazinesandradio
programs.Nuclearfamiliesworkbestwherethereisanationalconsensusoninformationand
values,notinasocietybasedonhighdiversity.
Forciblydrivewomenbackintothekitchen.Reducewagesforthosewhoinsistonworking.The
nuclearfamilyhasnonucleuswhentherearenoadultsleftathome.
Slashthewagesofyoungworkerstomakethemmoredependent,foralongertime,ontheir
families.
Bancontraception.Thismakesforindependenceofwomenandforextramaritalsex,anotorious
lossenerofnuclearties.
Cutthestandardoflivingoftheentiresocietytopre1955levels,sinceaffluencemakesitpossible
forsinglepeople,divorcedpeople,workingwomen,andotherunattachedindividualsto"makeit"
economicallyontheirown.
Resistallchangesinoursocietywhichleadtowarddiversity,freedomofmovementandideas,or
individuality.Thenuclearfamilyremainsdominantonlyinamasssociety.
Whatwearecurrentlywitnessingisthedemiseofthenuclearfamilyandtheemergenceinitsplaceofa
diversityoffamilyforms.
IntheFirstWave,welookedformateswhowerestrongenoughtohelpmakealivingonafarm.Inthe
SecondWave,wecametolookforamatewelovedcompanionship,sex,warmth,andsupport.
IntheThirdWave,workingintheelectroniccottage,wemaylookforLOVEPLUSsexualand
psychologicalgratificationPLUSbrains.Inthefuture,JohnDenvermaysing:
Iloveyoureyes,yourcherrylips,
thelovethatalwayslingers,
yourwaywithwordsandrandomblips,
yourskilledcomputerfingers.(219)
Children,intheelectroniccottage,mayreturntotheworkforce,bothhelpingthefamilyandexpanding
theireducation.
"Infact,integratingyoungpeopleintoworkintheelectroniccottagemayoffertheonlyrealsolutionto
theproblemsofhighyouthunemployment.Thisproblemwillgrowincreasinglyexplosiveinmany
countriesintheyearsahead,withalltheattendantevilsofjuvenilecrime,violence,andpsychological
immiseration,andcannotbesolvedwithintheframeworkofaSecondWaveeconomyexceptby
totalitarianmeansdraftingyoungpeople,forexample,forwarorforcedservice"(220).
"..weneedtobeginremovingtheunwarrantedguiltthataccompaniesthebreakupandrestructuringof
families...Thedecisiontoliveoutsideanuclearfamilyframeworkshouldbemadeeasier,notharder...
Insteadofexacerbatingunjustifiedguilt,themedia,thechurch,thecourts,andthepoliticalsystemshould
beworkingtolowertheguiltlevel"(224).
10.Radicallychangedcorporations.
"Thebigcorporationwasthecharacteristicbusinessorganizationoftheindustrialera"(226).Justlike
families,themassmedia,andschools,corporationsarefacingdrasticchanges:
Acrisisintheworldeconomy.
Ajetage(computerbased)moneysystemistakingshape.Asprawlingnetworkofinternational
bankshascreatedaballoonof"statelesscurrency"moneyandcreditoutsidethecontrolofany
individualgovernment.Severaltrilliondollarsinloansbasedonnocashreservesisthreateningto
blowupineveryone'sface.
Anacceleratedeconomy.
Thereisadrasticspeedupinthepaceofbusiness.Anacceleratingwaveofchange,pushedbythe
comingThirdWave,iscausingdisorientation,frustration,andincreasedmistakesonthepartof
managers.
Thedemassifiedsociety.
"Today,astheThirdWavestrikes,thecorporatemanagerfindsallhisoldassumptionschallenged...
themarketplaceandthelabormarket..arebeginningtobreakintosmaller,morevariedpieces....
SecondWavecorporations..areuncertainhowtocopewiththisrisingtideofdiversityamongtheir
employeesandcustomers"(2312).
Nationalismisnowbecomingregionalism."Thepressuresofthemeltingpotarereplacedbythe
newethnicity"(233).
Publicangeratcorporations
Peoplearedemandinganewdefinitionofwhatcorporationsareandwhattheydo.Theywanttosee
moreresponsibilityandmoreaccountability,"notmerelyforitseconomicperformancebutforits
sideeffectsoneverythingfromairpollutiontoexecutivestress"(234).
Theresultwillbecorporationswhoattendtomultiplebottomlines.Someexamplesarealready
happening:Amoco,ControlDataCorporation,Pillsbury,AT&T,andChemicalBankareall
focusingattentiononsocialimpactsaswellaseconomicresults.
11.Newcodeofbehavior
Punctualityandsynchronizationwillnolongerbecritical.Wewillhaveanewsenseoftime
witnessflextime(Gleitzeitsliding,orflexible,time).Punctuality,likemorality,willbecome
situational.
Increasednightwork.
Parttimeworkwillbecomemuchmorecommon.Peoplewillbecomemorewilling"tosettlefora
smallerpaycheckinreturnfortimetopursuetheirownhobbies,sports,orreligious,artistic,or
politicalinterests"(248).
Mealswillbecomefurtherdesynchronizedtherewillnolongerbeastandardthreemealsperday.
Morefastfoodshopswillappear.
Flexiblescheduleswillrequirenewservicestokeeptrackoffriendsandfamily.
Standardizationwilldisappear.Allpricingwillbecomemorelikeautomobilesvaryingwith
optionsandwithwhatyounegotiate.Consensusinpoliticswillbreakdownmoreissuegroupswill
pursuenarrowgoals.Countrieswilllosetheirsenseofnationalculturemoreregionalcultureswill
arise.
Decentralizationwilloccurnewpoliticalparties("neighborhoodpower"),newmanagement
techniques("matrix"organizationswhereyouhavemorethanoneboss),newphilosophiesto
challengethecentralistpremissesoftheSecondWave.
Nationaleconomieswillbreakupintoregionaleconomies.
Thevalueofspecializationandprofessionalismwilldecline.
12.RiseoftheProsumer
Thisbeganintheearly1970'swiththeintroductionofthedoityourselfpregnancykit.
Rapidlygrowingmovement"millionsofpeople...arebeginningtoperformforthemselves
serviceshithertoperformedforthembydoctors...whatthesepeoplearereallydoingisshifting
someproductionfromSectorB[the"visibleeconomy"]toSectorA[the"invisibleeconomy"]"
(267).
Theselfhelpmovementisanotherfacetofthistrend.
Otherexamplesofthistrendarelongdistancedirectdialing,selfservicefuelpumps,electronic
banking,selfservicesupermarkets,discountstores.
Moreandmorethinsaresoldknockeddown,readyfor"easyassembly"athome.
Appliances,likerefrigerators,arestartingtocomewith1800numberstocallforrepairstheywalk
YOUthroughtherepairprocess.
Thedoityourselfindustryisexperiencingexplosivegrowth.
Alltheabovedemonstratesthe"LAWOFRELATIVEINEFFICIENCY.""Thisholdsthatthemore
weautomatetheproductionofgoodsandlowertheirperunitcost,themoreweincreasetherelative
costofhandcraftsandnonautomatedservices"(273).
"Forsuchreasons,wemustexpectthepriceofmanyservicestocontinuetheirskyrocketingclimb
intheyearsahead...[thiswill]makeitincreasingly'profitable'forpeopletoproducefortheirown
consumption"(273).
Thissuggestsafutureeconomyinwhich"leisuretime"isredefinedas"unpaidwork"peoplewill
neverholdafulltimejob,butspendextensivetime"producing"theirowngoodsandserviceswith
immenselyenhancedselfhelptechnologies.
Insteadofbuyingashirt,youwillmakeyourownwitha"smart"electronicsewingmachine.
Youwillpurchaseanewcarbypurchasinga"kit"andbuildingityourself.
"Whatistherealmeaningofunemployment?Isalaidoffautoworkerwhoputsanewroofonhis
house,oroverhaulshiscar,unemployedinthesamesenseasonewhositsidlyathomewatching
footballontelevision?"(282).
"Battleswillflareoverwhichneedswillbemetbywhichsectoroftheeconomy.Struggleswill
sharpen,forexample,overlicensing,buildingcodes,andthelike,asSecondWaveforcesattemptto
holdontojobsandprofitsbypreventingprosumersfrommovingin..."(283).
Teachers'unionstypicallyfighttokeepparentsoutoftheclassroom...[but]anumberofeducational
problemscannotberesolvedwithouttheparent"(283).
13.Radicallychangedschools.
(seeseparatenotesonhomeschooling)
14.Breakupofthenationstate.
Aspopulationsbecomemorediverse,thehightechnationswillcrackupintosmallerandless
powerfulunits.
Liketransnationalcorporations,varioustransnationalnetworks,orgroups,willformtopursue
theireconomicandotherinterests.(TheCommonMarketisagoodexample)
"Manycountries..arefeelingthesimultaneousimpactoftwo,eventhree,quitedifferentwavesofchange,all
movingatdifferentratesofspeedandwithdifferentdegreesofforcebehindthem"(Toffler1980,14).
"..inourpersonallivesandinourpoliticalacts,whetherweknowitornot,mostofusintherichcountriesare
essentiallyeitherSecondWavepeoplecommittedtomaintainingthedyingorder,ThirdWavepeople
constructingaradicallydifferenttomorrow,oraconfused,selfcancelingmixtureofthetwo"(Toffler1980,16).
"Oncewerealizethatabitterstruggleisnowragingbetweenthosewhoseektopreserveindustrialismandthose
whoseektosupplantit,wehaveapowerfulnewkeytounderstandingtheworld"(Toffler1980,18).
FORCESFORANDAGAINSTCHANGE
"...SecondWaveforcesarethosewhofavortheold,mindlessapproachtotechnology:'Ifitworks,produceit.If
itsells,produceit'"(151).
Thereisalso"asmall,vocalfringeofromanticextremistshostiletoallbutthemostprimitiveFirstWave
technologies,whoseemtofavorareturntomedievalcraftsandhandlabor"(151).
"Rangedagainstboththeseextremesisanincreasingnumberofpeopleineverycountrywhoformthecoreof
thetechnorebellion...agentsoftheThirdWave.Theybeginnotwithtechnologybutwithhardquestionsabout
whatkindoffuturesocietywewant"(152).Theirguidingprinciplesareasfollows:
Theearth'sbiosphereisfragile,sonewtechnologiesshouldbeprescreenedforadverseeffects.
Technologyshouldbecontrolledbymorethanjustthesmalleliteofscientists,engineers,politicians,and
businessmen.
"TheheavyhandedtechnologiesoftheSecondWaveseemedmoreefficientthantheyactuallywere
becausecorporationsandsocialistenterprisesexternalizedtransferredtosocietyasawholethe
enormouscostsofcleaninguppollution,ofcaringfortheunemployed,ordealingwithworkalienation"
(152).Incontrast,appropriatetechnologiesforthefutureshouldprovidehumanejobs,avoidpollution,
sparetheenvironment,andproduceforpersonalorlocaluseratherthanfornationalandglobalmarkets
alone.
Moretechnologyshouldbedevotedtotheworld'spoorcountriesandpopulations.
Thelargersystemshouldbemetabolicinnature.Theoutputofeveryproductionsystemshouldbethe
inputforanother.Everythingshouldberecyclable.
THECOMINGPHILOSOPHICALREVOLT
Symptoms:
Amountingattackonestablishmentscience.
Awildfirerevivaloffundamentalistreligion.
Adesparatesearchforsomethingtobelievein.
Underlyingcause:
A"collisionoftheemergingThirdWaveculturewiththeentrenchedideasandassumptionsofindustrial
society"(289).
Forecast:
Aphilosophicalrevoltwhichwilloverthrowtheassumptionsofthepast300years.
Keyideasoftheindustrialperiodwillbe"discredited,discounted,superseded,orsubsumedintomuch
largerandmorepowerfultheories"(289).
Ex.1Ourviewofnature.
Wearemovingtoanonadversarial,symbioticrelationshipwithnature.
"Wearenowlookingatphenomenathatarebigger,smaller,andfasterbyordersofmagnitudethanany
weexmainedduringtheSecondWavepast.Todayweareprobingphenomenathatareastinyas
1/1,000,000,000,000,000th[quadrillionth]ofacentimeterinanexplorableuniversewhoseedgeliesat
least100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000[onehundredsextillion]milesaway.Wearestudyingphenomena
soshortlivedthattheyoccurin1/10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000th[tensextillionth]ofasecond"(291).
Ex.2Ourviewofevolution
Atthemolecularlevel,scientistsarefindingthatbiologicalevolutiondoesnotfollowDarwiniannatural
selection,butrandom"geneticdrift."
"Freshresearchisnow...leadingtotheunsettlingnotionthatthesimplerlifeformsmayhavedescended
fromthemorecomplex,"andnotviceversa.(292)
TheunravelingofthestructureofDNAbyJamesWatsonandFrancisCrick,andthecurrentongoing
GenomeProject,meanthatweareabouttobecomethedesignersofevolution.
Ex.3Ourviewoftime
Scientistsarenowtellingusthat"timeisn'tsomethingthatflowsinexorablyforwardatthesteadypace
indicatedbyourclockesandcalendars,butthatitcanbewarpedanddistortedinnature,withtheend
productbeingdifferentdependingonjustwhereyouaremeasuringitfrom.Attheultimateextreme,
supercollapsedobjectblackholescannegatetimealtogether,makingitstandstillintheirvicinity"
(296).
Atthemicroscopiclevel,timeis"flowingatdifferentratesindifferentpartsoftheuniverse.Increasingly,
therefore,wecannotevenspeakof"time"inthesingularthereappeartobealternativeandplural"times"
operatingunderdifferentrulesindifferentpartsoftheuniverse"(297).
Dr.GeraldFeinberg,atColumbiaUniversity,has"hypothesizedparticlescalledtachyonsthatmovefaster
thanlightandforwhich...timemovesbackwards"(297).
Ex.4Thesystemsapproach
ExplainsystemsthinkingoriginatNASAhowtofirearocket.
ContrastthistotheCartesianapproachtakeallthecomponentsapartandinspectthemindividually.
Othertermsforthisapproach:
Gestalt(psychology)
Holistic(medicine)
TOMORROW'SBASICS
"ForThirdWavecivilization,themostbasicrawmaterialofallandonthatcanneverbeexhaustedis
information...Withinformationbecomingmoreimportantthaneverbefore,thenewcivilizationwillrestructure
education,redefinescientificresearchand,aboveall,reorganizethemediaofcommunication...Insteadofbeing
culturallydominatedbyafewmassmedia,ThirdWavecivilizationwillrestoninteractive,demassified
media,feedingextremelydiverseandoftenhighlypersonalizedimageryintoandoutofthemindstreamofthe
society.
"Thegiantcentralizedcomputerwithitswhirringtapesandcomplexcoolingsystemswhereitstillexistswill
besupplementedbymyriadchipsofintelligence,embeddedinoneformoranotherineveryhome,hospital,and
hotel,everyvehicle,andappliance,virtuallyeverybuildingbrick.Theelectronicenvironmentwillliterally
conversewithus"(352).
"Tooperatethesefactoriesandofficesofthefuture,ThirdWavecompanieswillneedworkerscapableof
discretionandresourcefulnessratherthanroteresponses.Topreparesuchemployees,schoolswillincreasingly
shiftawayfrompresentmethodsstilllargelygearedtoproducingSecondWaveworkersforhighlyrepetitive
work"(353).
INDIVIDUALTRAITSWHICHWILLBEVALUEDINTHE
COMINGTHIRDWAVECIVILIZATION:
Thesocietywillnotbechildcenteredmotherhoodwillbediminished.
Parentswillbelesspermissive.
Childrenwillbegivengrowingresponsibilityfromanearlyage.
Educationwillbecomeinterspersedandinterwovenwithwork,andwillbemorespreadoutovera
lifetime.
Onthejob,theabilitytoacceptresponsibility,toadaptswiftlytochange,andtobesensitivetoyour
fellowworkerswillbeprized.
Successfulpeoplewillbecomplexandindividualistic.
Blindobedienceonthejobwillbepenalized.Independentthinking,questioningofauthority,talkingback
willberewarded.
Selfreliance,andtheabilitytodothingswithone'sownhandswillbecomeprestigious.
OutlineofThirdWave
Introduction
Timing
TheFirstWave
Definition
TheSecondWave
Definition
MajorChangesWrought
Ashifttononrenewableenergysources
Massdistribution
Massmerchandising
Mobilityofpeoplethenuclearfamily
Keyfunctionsoffamilytospecializedinstitutions
Masseducationcovertcurriculum
Thecorporationlimitedliability
Bureaucracy
Massiveinformationflowimprovedcommunications
Massmedia
Humanlifesplitintoproductionandconsumption
Thesexualsplit
CodeoftheSecondWave
1.Standardization
2.Specialization
3.Synchronization
4.Concentrationofenergy,money,power
5.Maximization
Whorunsthings
Managers
Biggovernment
Leadingbusinessmenandlawyers
Investmentmoguls
Thehiddenpoliticalstructure
Land
Nationalconsciousness
Representativegovernment
Theimperialdrive
TheSecondWavementality
Natureistobeexploited
SocialDarwinism
Theprogressprinciple
Consequences:
Timeobsession
Dramaticchangesinthelandscape
Precise,standardizedmeasurement
Atomisticviewofreality
Explanationsthroughcausality
Resultsofthesefactors
FactorswhichmakecontinuationoftheSecondWaveimpossible
Thebiospherecannottoleratefurtherassault
Nonrenewableenergysourcesaredryingup
Cheaprawmaterialssourcesaredryingup
Disintegrativepressuresinsidethesystem
TheThirdWavethenewsynthesis
Whatthenewtechnologieswillbring
Diversified,renewableenergysources
Newmethodsofproduction
Electronicsandcomputers
Thespaceindustry
Theaquaindustry
Thegeneindustry
Demassificationofthemedia
Anintelligentenvironment
Anewsocialmemory
The"electroniccottage"
Ahomecenteredsociety
Nonnuclearfamilies
Radicallychangedcorporations
Newcodeofbehavior
Radicallychangedschools
Breakupofthenationstate
ForcesforandagainstThirdWavechanges
Thecomingphilosophicalrevolt
Tomorrow'sbasics
IndividualtraitswhichwillbevaluedinthecomingThirdWavecivilization
Lastupdatedon:04/26/200510:00:40
byColbyGlass,MLIS.
Ifyouhavecomments,orhavesomethingyouwouldliketoseeaddedtothissite,pleasesendmeamessage.
Thanks!
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