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AN OVERVIEW OF THE ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM PROJECT

Hossam Eldin M. Elhanafy, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Military Technical College, Cairo, Egypt

ABSTRACT

The Grand Renaissance Dam, GRD or Millennium dam is located on the Blue Nile River about 25 km from the
Ethiopia Sudan border. This great project when completed will be considered one of the greatest water
structures that have been constructed in this century. The project consists of the main dam which is a gravity
dam on the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin River and a saddle dam which is a rock fill dam. According to the formal
news from the Ethiopian government, the main purpose of this dam is to generate the electrical power only. It
has two surface powerhouses equipped with sixteen power generating units and a switch yard. This project
should generate about 6000 MW of electricity. As a result the overall generation of Ethiopia will jump from
2000MW in 2010 to 8000MW in 2015. The reservoir will have a storage capacity of 74 km3 and cover an area
of about 1,874 km2 at full supply level (FSL) of 640 meters above sea level (asl). The whole project will be
studied in details in the research project reported in this paper from both the structural and the hydraulic points
of view. The impacts of this project are reviewed for the three countries; Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. These
impacts which are studied here focus only on three perspectives, water budgets, power generation and
economical effects. The study of these impact is divided to three main phases; during the filling; during the
operation and finally in case of failure of certain components of this project. From this study, the positive and
negative probable effects on the three countries are discussed in an attempt to introduce to the decision makers
overview of the negatives of this project. These negative effects should be studied side by side with the positive
effects.

RSUM

Le barrage Grande Renaissance, ou barrage Millennium, est situ sur le Nil Bleu environ 25 km de la
frontire entre l'thiopie et le Soudan. Une fois termin, ce grand projet sera considr comme l'une des plus
grandes structures hydrauliques construites durant ce sicle. Sur le bassin du Nil Bleu thiopien, le projet
comprend un barrage-poids en bton en tant que structure principale ainsi quun barrage en enrochement sur un
point de selle. Selon les annonces officielles du gouvernement thiopien, le but premier de ce barrage est
seulement la gnration de puissance lectrique. Lamnagement dispose de deux centrales lectriques en
surface quipes de seize groupes de production d'nergie et dun poste de transformation. Ce projet devrait
gnrer environ 6000 MW de puissance. En consquence, la production totale de l'thiopie va passer de
2000 MW en 2010 8000 MW en 2015. Le rservoir aura une capacit de stockage de 74 km3 et il recouvrira
une superficie d'environ 1874 km2 plein rservoir, pour une cote dlvation de 640 m au-dessus du niveau de
la mer. L'ensemble du projet sera examin en dtail dans un projet de recherche qui est rsum dans cet article,
la fois des points de vue de la structure et de lhydraulique. Les impacts de ce projet sont considrs pour trois
pays thiopie, Soudan et gypte. Les impacts tudis ici se concentrent seulement sur trois points de vue : les
budgets hydriques, la production d'nergie et les effets conomiques. L'tude de ces effets est examine pour
trois priodes principales : pendant le remplissage, pendant l'exploitation et, finalement, en cas de rupture de
certains composants de ce projet. De cette tude, les effets probables positifs et ngatifs pour les trois pays sont
discuts dans une tentative de prsenter aux dcideurs un survol des points ngatifs de ce projet. Ces effets
ngatifs doivent tre tudis en parallle avec les effets positifs.

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 1 INTRODUCTION

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), formerly known as the Millennium Dam and sometimes
referred to as Hidase Dam, is a gravity dam located on Abbay/ Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin River in
Ethiopia currently under construction as shown in Figure 1. It is located in the Benishangul-Gumuz
region of Ethiopia, about 20 to 40 km east of the border with Sudan. The dam is of a 170 m height;
1,800 m long gravity-type. It is composed of roller-compacted concrete with two power houses on
each side. The dam's reservoir will have a volume of 63 billion cubic meters and covers an area of
about 1874 square kilometers at fully storage. It is complemented by a saddle dam about 5 km long
and about 50 meter height. After construction of this huge dam, its reservoir should be filled with 63
billion cubic meters of water. This research is concerning on studying different scenarios of the filling
period and its direct effect on Egyptian share of the Nile water. In order to study these scenarios first
we should study the Ethiopian Blue Nile basin from the hydrological prospective point of view.
During this hydrological study the total flood water at the dam location from the Ethiopian Blue Nile
basin is calculated using the well known Watershed Modeling System (HEC-WMS) and Watershed
Storm Hydrograph Model (WASHMO). According to the Egyptian water requirements of operations
behind the high dam at Aswan, different scenarios of filling the Ethiopian reservoir are investigated.

.
Figure 1: Location of the Grand Renaissance Dam, main dam, saddle dam, and power plants
http://www.ethiogermany.de/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Nile_Basin_Countries.jpg

Many such studies were carried out on extracting meaningful information from topographic maps,
digital elevation models (DEM), aerial photographs, satellite imageries and field data (Jenson and
Domingue 1988; Helsel and Hirsch 1992; Beven and Moore 1993; Gurnell and Montgomery 2001;
Davis 2002; Lyon 2002; Evans et al. 2003; Lin and Oguchi 2006; Dinesh 2008). For the purpose of
predicting hydrologic responses for the Ethiopian Blue Nile basin, geographic information system
(GIS) and remote-sensing (RS) tools are used to define the different geological, geomorphological,
and drainage parameters of the study basin. HEC-WMS software package is used with the available
data of precipitation, evaporation and infiltration to compute the hydrograph at the outlet of the basin.
On the other hand, the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) is applied to calculate the sediment yield
by applying by the aid of WASHMO model that was established by Andy Ward, 1986. HEC-WMS
model is a comprehensive graphical modeling environment for all phases of basins hydrology and
hydraulics. HEC-WMS is applied in this study to delineate the Ethiopian Blue Nile basin and divide
it into 12 sub-basins from the obtained DEM of Shuttle Topographic Radar Mission (STRM). The
flow direction grid and a flow accumulation grid are obtained as outputs. After defining all the basins
data with a DEM, the results are converted to drainage coverage for easier data storage and
manipulation. The flood hydrographs for the 12 sub-basins and the total flood volume of the Ethiopian
Blue Nile basin at the dam location are obtained.

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 Sediment yield from the uplands and the stream channel can be determined either by using
mathematical models which contain component for computing overland flow and in channel flow or
by using regression models which determine the relationship between the measured suspended
sediment load and the measured water discharge (Vanoni, 1975). Most of the mathematical models
were based on the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). In Order to determine sediment yield for the
Ethiopian Blue Nile basin, the new version of the USLE which is modified by (Ward, 1981) is applied
in this research.

2 STUDY AREA DESCRIPTION

The study area is located in the Eastern region of the African continent (extended from 7 30`N to 13
00` N and from 34 00` E to 40 00` E). This area covers most of the Ethiopian plateau highlands at
an elevation of 2000 to 3000 meters above mean sea level, as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Location of the study area

2.1 Topograpghy

Based on the SRTM DEM with 30 meters resolution and GIS modeling, the topography of the
Ethiopian Blue Nile basin as shown in the left panel of Figure 3 signifies two distinct features; the
highlands, ragged mountainous areas in the center and eastern part of the basin and the lowlands in
the western part of the basin. The altitude in the basin ranges from 498 m. above msl in the lowlands
up to 4261 m. above msl in the highlands. The Ethiopian highlands extend from 1500 m. above msl
up to as high as 4260 m. above msl, with a slope of greater than 25 percent in the eastern part. Where
as the Ethiopian lowlands flatten 1000 m. above msl to 500 m. above msl with a slope of less than 7
percent.

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 DEM of Ethiopia DEM of the Ethiopian Blue Nile basin
Figure 3: DEM of Ethiopia and DEM of the Ethiopian Blue Nile basin

The right panel in Figure 3 shows that most of the Northern Ethiopian plateau is hilly with grassy
downs, swamps valleys, and scattered trees. The highest point in this plateau is the peak of Simien
Mountains, 4620m above sea level (Hurst,1950). (Huffnagle, 1961) describes the Northern Ethiopian
plateau with respect to its topographic variation. The Ethiopian plateau is cut up by the deep ravines
or canyons in which the rivers flow. In some places the Ethiopian Blue Nile basin flows into a channel
that is about 1300 m below the level of this plateau on either side.

2.2 Hydrology

The Blue Nile basin, including Lake Tana and its Basin, has an area of 324530 square km. This area is
covers a part in Sudan and Ethiopia. Only 175810 km2 is located within Ethiopia after subtracting
Rihad and Dinder sub-basins from our study since their flood water is not directed toward the
(GERD). The source of the Ethiopian Blue Nile basin is a small spring at a height of 2900 m and at
about 100 Km South of lake Tana. From this spring the little Abbai flows down to lake Tana, 1829 m
above Mean Sea Level. Lake Tana is described by (Shahin, 1985) as a freshwater body which is
situated in Norh-central Ethiopia. Its maximum length is 78 Km, width 67 Km and depth 14 m.
Relatively important feeders to lake Tana other than the little Abbai are the Rivers: Reb, Gumara,
Magetch, and Gelda as shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4: Lake Tana

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 2.3 Rainfall

The Ethiopian plateaus climate varies with latitude, altitude and exposure or slope. The rainy season
is extended from June until September (Hurst et al., 1931). The West of Ethiopia receives higher
amount of rainfall than does the remainder of the country. Highland rainfall normally peaks in August
in the administrative regions of Welo and Northern part of Shewa. Rains decreases over much of the
highlands during September (Henricksen, 1986 ). Figure 5 (MoWR, 1999) shows BahirDar station
rainfall record which is located near to Lake Tana (11.6 degree Latitude, and 37.4 degree Longitude).
An average annual rainfall of 1292.5 mm is recorded for 20 years (1980-2000) at the station.

Figure 5: Rainfall record at BahirDar station

2.4 Evaporation

As shown in Figure 6 (MoWR, 1999) the record of evaporation at BahirDar station for four years
shows an annual average of 1634 mm/yr.

Figure 6: Annual evaporation record at BahirDar station.

2.5 Soil Type

The compositions of the volcanic materials, particularly in the Ethiopian North Central Highlands,
which cover most of the study area, have a major importance for engineers and hydrologists. This is
due to severe erosion which is caused by continuous events of storms during the rainy season. Two
main soil types had been distinguished by (Huffnagle 1961): the red to reddish brown clayey loams
and black soils. The red soils bare the specific latosols characteristics and they have an excellent
permeability. The black soils which are derived from disintegration of dolerites are found in the lower

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 parts (depressions) of the study area. This soil type has tendency to dry out quickly and to crack. In
wide deep valleys the black soil may have been intermingled with alluvial material (Huffnagle, 1961).
The soils structure for different soil types in the Ethiopian Blue Nile basin Basin varies from fine
granular ( Cambisols dystric) to medium or coarse granular (Cambisols humic, Cambisols eutric,
arenosols cambic and nitosols eutric). The corresponding permeability classes are slow to moderate
for the fine granular and very slow for the medium or course granular.

3 Soil Erodibility Factor,K

Direct measurement of the soil erodibility factor, K, is costly as well as time consuming. To achieve a
better determination of soil erodibility factor for different soil types, the use of field-plot rainfall
simulators had been recommended by (Wishmeier and Smith,1978) in at least 12 different stations to
obtain comparative data on numerous soils. The value of K is varied from a specific kind of soil to
another according to the different properties of soil itself. Silt fraction content, percent of sand in soil,
soil structure, organic matter content and permeability class are the most common properties that have
been used to determine such factor either from empirical equations, tables or from soil erodibility
nomographs.
Values of soil erodibility factors for different soil types vary during the year (Dickinson et al., 1982)
determined the variation of K from season to season due to the change of the shear values for surface
soils. (Mutchler and Carter,1983) found that values of annual average soil erodibility by storm varied
for Mississippi and Minnesota erosion plot data with the variation of the air temperature (Ulsaker and
Onstad, 1984). The plant coverage strongly affects some of soil properties such as, infiltration and
organic matter content. It increase infiltration as plant roots open up the soil and increases the organic
content of the soil .

4 Vegevtaion

The study area land cover includes agricultural crops, coffee forests, grazing grounds, closed forests,
open woodlands, open brush and scrub, as well as lakes and rivers. The important resources for the
study area are fertile and climatic conditions which are favorable for cultivating a variety of crops and
raising livestock. The cultivated area in Ethiopia are mostly on the highlands, in low valleys and on
river plains which have sufficient rainfall or allow a form of irrigation ( Huffnagle, 1961).

3 MODELS DESCRIPTION

Two models have been used in this study, the first model, HEC-WMS v9.1 which evaluates the flood
water only just upstream of the dam, while the second model, WASHMO, describes the processes of
detachment, transport and deposition along with sediment yield from the basin

3.1 HEC-WMS 9.1

WMS is a comprehensive graphical modeling environment for all phases of watershed hydrology and
hydraulics. From the topographic map, the contour lines are digitized and transformed to a digital
elevation model (DEM). Another DEM has been downloaded from the SRTM 30 m. Digital Elevation
Database v4.1 CGIAR-CSI. Both Dem files have been verified to check for any error. The drainage
system of the basin has been delineated from the generated DEM. The flow direction grid and a flow
accumulation grid has been obtained. After defining basins with a DEM, the results are converted to
drainage coverage for easier data storage and manipulation.

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 5 WASHMO

WASHMO model was developed by (Ward et al., 1979) at the University of Kentucky, Department of
Agricultural Engineering. WASHMO had been used to determine sediment yield from watershed.
The model describes the processes of detachment, transport and deposition along with sediment yield
from the watershed. Detachment occurs when a soil particle is dislodged from the soil surface and/or
from the aggregate to which it was attached. When the soil surface is exposed, bare soil, the impact of
falling rain drop is sufficient to detach soil particles from the soil mass. As far as the infiltration,
percolation and saturation processes take place, and rainfall intensity exceeds the infiltration capacity,
some of the excess water may be intercepted as surface storage in depressions, and the remainder
becomes surface runoff. The soil particles can be easily transported by water. When the available
energy is insufficient to transport soil particles, they will deposit either at a few millimeters of the
detachment site or several kilometers downstream in rivers( Ward et al., 1979).
Sediment yield (in tons) was determined by using the modified version of the Universal Soil Loss
Equation (USLE) which developed by (Hann and Barfield,1978). This modified equation was written
in the form:

Ys = 95 (Q q p )0.56 K Ls Sf C Pr

Where Ys is the sediment yield in tons from a storm, Q is the volume of runoff in acre-ft, qp is the
peak runoff rate in cfs, K is the soil erodibility factor, Ls is the slope length factor, C is the ground
cover factor and Pr is the reclamation practice factor. The rest of input data have been inserted for
both model such as rainfall and evaporation data.

4 DATA ACQUISITION

Data preparation consists of extracting main streams and tributaries from digital elevation model
(DEM) with the aid of Arc-Map software and HEC-WMS. The other hydrological parameters such as
Soil Conservation Factor Curve Number (SCS-CN), soil erodibility factor (K), Conservation Practice
factor (CP) has been evaluated according to the land cover of each sub-basin.

4.1 Digital Elevation Model

A 30 m resolution of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) provided by Shuttle Radar Topography Mission
(STRM) for the study area is used to describe the elevation of the Ethiopian Blue Nile basin
watershed as shown in Figure 7.

Figure 7: Digital Elevation Model for the study area.

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 4.2 Sub-watersheds extraction
Main stream and tributaries were extracted from DEM by using Arc-Map software. Sub- basins have
been determined from both DEM and the drainage pattern of each sub-basins as shown in the left
panel of Figure 8.

Figure 8: Digital Elevation Model, sub basins, sub basins area and tributaries for the study area.

4.3 Hydrological Parameters

The area of the basin and its sub- basins, the lengths of main streams and their slopes and overland
flow lengths and their mean slopes were extracted from the Arc-Map software. These values were
tabulated in Table 1. While the right panel in Figure 8 represents the area of each sub-basin.

Regarding to the land use and soil characteristics for the study area, Soil Conservation Service
Curve Number (SCS-CN) which represents the runoff potential of an area for each sub-watershed was
determined by using (Hann and Barfield, 1978) approaches. The weighted mean value of the CN was
used as a combined value for different kinds of vegetation coverage in each sub-basin, when more
than one type occurred. CN was found to be 42. The vegetation coverage percentage for each
catchment was determined from Atlas of Ethiopia. The description of different types of land cover
was discussed widely by (Huffnagel, 1961).

Table 1: Hydrological and Land coverage parameters that been extracted from Arc-Map and HEC-WMS.
Hydrological Parameters
Basin Average overland Land coverage %
Sub- Sub-basins
main
basins area distance basin Grass
stream Slope Agric. Forest
(km2) Length (m) Slope Land
length (m)
sub1 14169 167450 0.58% 238810 2.79% 70.6 2.6 13.3
sub2 12155 208616 1.32% 28280 20.2 % 40.0 10.0 50.0
sub3 4562.1 171874 1.49 % 21718 14.9 % 40.0 10.0 50.0
sub4 15143 237971.1 0.82% 26403 13.4 % 38.4 24.6 37.0
sub5 7279.4 188724 0.93 % 21767 12.61 % 26.8 39.7 33.5
sub6 7811.4 164154 1.3 % 20571 7.12 % 40.0 10.0 50.0
sub7 19892 370588 0.49 % 19538 3.86 % 83.4 0.0 16.6
sub8 12438 297229.1 0.43% 21204 4.5 % 21.8 9.5 25.9
sub9 54230 897538 0.25 % 24136 8.03 % 47.0 2.3 11.8
sub10 13991 279739 0.48 % 22131 3.62% 40.0 10.0 50.0
sub11 5807.5 123864 2.1% 26243 5.47% 50.0 4.5 30
sub12 8332.3 185491 1.16 % 24170 4.31% 78.7 3.7 17.6

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 The soil erodibility factor, K, was found to be 0.20. This factor was determined by using soil
erodibility nomograph given by (Wischmeier and smith, 1978). Percentage of agriculture, forest, and
grass land coverage for the each sub-basin was tabulated in Table 1. The maximum rainfall amount
was extracted from the Debre Markos station and found to be 164 mm and the time duration was
assumed to be 24 hours.

5 METHODOLOGY:

Data acquired from the previous subtitles were used as the input data of WASHMO and HEC-WMS
models. Schematic diagram for experimental work is shown in Figure 9.
Study Area: Data information

Data Collection GIS Analysis Modelling

WASHMO Results
Data Collection
Stage
Stage
Stage Stage
Stage

DEM from STRM sensors

Sediment yield
Max Rainfall

SCS-CN output
GIS hydrological WASHMO
analysis parameters Model
Soil Erodibility factor K Input by using
Arc-Map Sub-Basins-
HEC-WMS
Conservation Practice Boundaries
Model
factor CP
Flood
Sieve analysis of soil surface hydrograph

Land Cover

Figure 9: Schematic Diagram of experimental work

6 RESULTS AND ANALYSIS

After inserting all the extracted data to both, the hydrograph based on a storm that consider the values
of rainfall that summarized in Figure 5 and evaporation rate shown in Figure 6 was obtained and
represented in Figure 10.

Figure 10: Hydrograph plot upstream the dam

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 This hydrograph gives volume of water = 34.8 billion cubic meters of water and 66404073 tones
sediment Since the capacity of the GERR was estimated by the Ethiopian Government by the value of
63 billion m, then the following conditions (or Assumptions) will be taken in our consideration:
1- The sediments are retained into the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Reservoir.
2- No consumption of the stored water behind the reservoir for public use or irrigation purposes.

According to the resulted values of water volumes and sediment weight (weight in tones should be
converted to volume) and under the mentioned conditions, the required filling time is determined as
follows:

Since the reservoir capacity is 63X10 9 m3, and the total volume of water and sediments per year equal
(34.8+1.6) X10 9 m3/yr.
The required filling time of the reservoir is (63X10 9) / (36.4 X10 9) = 1.73 years = one year and 9
months

This duration of filling is based upon the assumption of constant rate of rainfall and evaporation
during the filling period of the reservoir

7 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

We recommend to use more details rainfall storm event and the actual number of these events and
actual percentage of evaporation in addition to frequency analysis of storms occurrence and durations.
More details regarding the infiltration is needed in future researches. Also, we should take in future
work the stored water behind the reservoir for public use or irrigation purposes.

Although this study focus on the hydrological aspects but also it highlights some important objectives.
It is clear that although generating electric power was one of the objectives of this project but the
construction of this huge reservoir does not match the this point. The filling period still a very
important point that is why several political meeting have been hold to discuss this issue. If Ethiopia
filled the reservoir behind the main dam without considerations of the downstream country it will
result in a drought two years for both Egypt and Sudan countries. Also geological and environmental
studies should be carried on especially this area is well known by its active earthquake.

Also, as shown in Figure 1 the reservoir behind the main dam is bounded by an inverted arch saddle
dam. This dam is inverted so one of the fairs is the failure of this dam and losses of another great
amount of water to Sudan. In this case both Egypt and Sudan will suffer from shortage of water, drop
in electric power generation, which by its turn will results in economical drop and famine in these
countries.

So, finally although this dam has positives, but these positives may be for the Ethiopian people only in
the beginning only, because the negatives on both the Egypt and Sudan may result in a great political
problems if not a war since water is the source of life.

Now a days political effort from the three countries are on the way to avoid this. Although this paper
focus on the hydrological aspects but it may light the red colour to every responsible person to do his
best to avoid a lot of problems in three developing neighbours countries.

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