Chapter 5

Scheduling the Project

PERT AND CPM NETWORKS
History PERT
Program Evaluation and Review
Technique (PERT)
U.S. Navy for planning and control the polaris
missile program
Emphasis to complete project in shortest time
Ability to cope with uncertainty
Probabilistic activity durations
Multiple time estimate
Suitable for non-repetitive project management

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History CPM
Critical Path Method (CPM)
Dupont De Nemours Inc.
Emphasis on tradeoff between cost and
completion time
Deterministic activity durations
Single estimate
Suitable for production management

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The Language of PERT/CPM
Activity
task or set of tasks and use resources
represented by arrow
Event
state resulting from completion of one or more
activities
consume no resources or time
predecessor activities must be completed
represented by node
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The Language of PERT/CPM
continued
Network
Show relationship between activities using
node and arrow
Milestones
events that mark significant progress
Path
series of connected activities between two
events (node)

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The Language of PERT/CPM
concluded
Critical Path
set of activities on a path that if delayed will
delay completion of project
Critical Time
time required to complete all activities on the
critical path

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Gantt Chart

Common and provide graphical view of activities

Doesnt indicate progress
Doesnt indicate relationship between activities

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PERT and CPM

Show relationship between activities

More efficient especially for large project

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Building the Network
AOA Network Activity on arrow
AON Network Activity on node

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Table 5-1 A Sample Set of Project
Activities and Precedences
Task Predecessor
a --
b --
c a
d b
e b
f c, d
g e

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Figure 5-1 Stage 1 of a Sample
AON Network

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Figure 5-2 Stage 2 of a Sample
AON Network

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Figure 5-3 A Completed Sample
AON Network

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Figure 5-4 Stage 1 of a Sample
AOA Network

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Figure 5-5 Stage 2 of a Sample
AOA Network

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Figure 5-6a A Completed Sample
AOA Network

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Figure 5-6b A Completed Sample AOA
Network Showing the Use of a Dummy Task

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Table 5-2 A Sample Problem for Finding
the Critical Path and Critical Time
Activity Predecessor Duration
a -- 5 days
b -- 4
c a 3
d a 4
e a 6
f b, c 4
g d 5
h d, e 6
i f 6
j g, h 4

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Figure 5-7 Stage 1 of a Sample
Network

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Figure 5-8 A Complete Network

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Figure 5-9 Information Contents
in an AON Node

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Figure 5-10 The Critical Path and
Time for Sample Project

Critical path = longest path through the network

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Critical Path
Critical path is a sequence of activities from start to finish
with zero slack. Critical activities are activities on the
critical path.

Critical path identifies the minimum time to complete

project

If any activity on the critical path is shortened or

extended, project time will be shortened or extended
accordingly

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Activity Slack
Slack or Float Indicates how much allowance
each activity has, i.e how long it can be delayed
without affecting completion date of project?

Slack = difference between latest time and

earliest time

LST - EST = LFT - EFT = Slack

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Activity Slack example
Activity Earliest Latest Earliest Latest Slack Critical
start (ES) start (LS) finish (EF) finish (LF) (LS-ES) path

A 0 0 5 5 0 Yes
B 0 6 6 12 6
C 5 8 9 12 3
D 5 7 8 10 2
E 5 5 6 6 0 Yes
F 6 6 10 10 0 Yes
G 10 10 24 24 0 Yes
H 9 12 21 24 3
I 24 24 26 26 0 Yes
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Exercise

What is the minimum possible time to complete

the project?

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Exercise

What is the minimum possible time to complete

the project?

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PROJECT UNCERTAINTY AND
RISK MANAGEMENT
Calculating Probabilistic Activity
Times
Three Time Estimates
pessimistic (a)
most likely (m)
optimistic (b)

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Figure 5-13 The Statistical Distribution of
all Possible Times for an Activity

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Activity Expected Time and
Variance
( a + 4m + b)
TE =
6

(b a )
=
6

2
(b a )
Var = =
2

6
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The Probability of Completing the
Project on Time
(D )
Z=
2

=NORMDIST(D,,,TRUE)

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 PERT Example
Precedences And Project Activity Times
Immediate Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic EXP Var S.Dev
Activity Predecessor Time Time Time TE V

a - 10 22 22 20 4 2
b - 20 20 20 20 0 0
c - 4 10 16 10 4 2
d a 2 14 32 15 25 5
e b,c 8 8 20 10 4 2
f b,c 8 14 20 14 4 2
g b,c 4 4 4 4 0 0
h c 2 12 16 11 5.4 2.32
I g,h 6 16 38 18 28.4 5.33
j d,e 2 8 14 8 4 2
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PERT Example
The complete network

d 6
2
(15,25)
j
a (8,4)
(20,4) e
(10,4)
1 f 7
3
b (14,4)
(20,0)
g
c
(4,0)
(10,4) i
(18,28.4)
h 5
4
(11,5.4)

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PERT Example

EF=20 35
d 6
2
a (15,25) j
(20,4) (8,4)
b e
20 43
(20,0) (10,4)
f CRIT. TIME = 43
1 3 7
(14,4)
g
c (4,0)
(10,4) i
(18,28.4)
h 5
4
(11,5.4)
10 24

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PERT Example
Critical Path Analysis (PERT)
Activity LS ES Slacks Critical ?
a 0 0 0 Yes

b 1 0 1

c 4 0 4

d 20 20 0 Yes

e 25 20 5

f 29 20 9

g 21 20 1

h 14 10 4

i 25 24 1

j 35 35 0 Yes
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 PERT Example
Assume, PM promised to complete the project in the fifty
days. What are the chances of meeting that deadline?
Calculate Z, where

Z = (D-S) / V

D = 50;
S (Scheduled date) = 20+15+8 =43;
V = (4+25+4) =33

Z = (50 43) / 5.745 Area = prob = 0.888

= 1.22 standard deviations.

The probability value of Z = 1.22, is 0.888

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 PERT Example
What deadline are you 95% sure of meeting

Z value associated with 0.95 is 1.645

D = S + 5.745 (1.645)
= 43 + 9.45
= 52.45 days

Thus, there is a 95 percent chance of finishing the project by

52.45 days.

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THE GANNT CHART
Figure 5-23 A Gantt Chart of a
Sample Project

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Figure 5-24 A Gantt Chart of Sample Project
Showing Critical Path, Path Connections, Slack, EST,
LST, EFT, and LFT

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Figure 5-25 A Gantt Chart of a Day Care Project
Showing Expected Durations, Critical Path,
Milestone, and Resource Requirements

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Figure 5-26 A Progress Report on a Day Care
Project Showing Actual Progress Versus Baseline

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Other Methods
Graphical Evaluation and Review
Technique (GERT)
combines flowgraphs, probabilistic networks,
and decision trees
allows loops back to earlier events and
probabilistic branching

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Copyright
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