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Faculty Page: www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

1

Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering,

School of Engineering and Applied Science,

The George Washington University, 1776 G Street, N.W. Suite 135,

Washington D.C. 20052. E-mail: dorpjr@gwu.edu, dorpjr@gmail.com

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

Market Equilibrium

Two main problems dominate Investment Science

How to devise the best portfolio, How to devise the optimal strategy for

managing an investment. How to select from a group of a potential

investment strategies.

Bond pricing using term stucture of interest rate, Valuation of a firm.

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) falls under the second category

but

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

Market Equilibrium

Suppose: (1) all investors are mean-variance optimizers; (2) all agree

on the parameters (means, variances and covariances); and (3) a unique

risk-free asset exist without fees Everybody invests in risk free

asset and the fund F (recall the one-fund theorem of Chapter 6) If

everybody buys the one fund F then the total of their purchases add up

to the market The fund F is the market fund.

Security outstanding in Market Price Capitalization Weights

Jazz, Inc. 10,000 1/8 $6.00 60,000 3/20

Classical, Inc. 30,000 3/8 $4.00 120,000 3/10

Rock, Inc. 40,000 1/2 $5.50 220,000 11/20

Total 80,000 1 400,000 1

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

The Capital Market Line

The single efficient fund J of risky assets under above assumption

shall be labeled Q for market. Its average return will be denoted <Q

and its standard deviation 5Q . The constant return of the risk-free

asset will be denoted <0

that connects the points ! <0 and 5Q <Q :

r

rm rf

r= + rf

M M <Q <0

< 5 <0

5Q

rm rf 5Q 5 5

<0 <Q

rf M 5Q 5Q

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

The Capital Market Line

Observation 1: If one does not want to accept investment risk (5 0)

one has to invests all funds in the risk free asset <0 .

a rate of return of <Q , one has to

invest all funds in the market and

M accept a risk of 5Q .

Observation 3: Return

M < <Q only by investing more

r= rf + rm

rf M M than you have in the stock market.

Thus, one has to borrow money

r at the rate <0 and invest it in the

stock market. This is the short

selling option.

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

The Capital Market Line

Observation 4: If short selling is not allowed, one cannot get a

higher rate of return than the market return <Q .

Example 7.1 (The impatient investor): Currently <0 '%, <Q "#%

and 5Q "&%.

$" !!! "!''" $" !!! !!!

Thus, it would take about '" years for $" !!! to grow to $" !!! !!!

dollars. This takes too long for Mr. Smith and he would like this to happen

in 10 years.

**&$%. What standard deviation would Mr. Smith have to accept?

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

The Capital Market Line

Option 1 Option 2

Amount $1,000 $1,000

Rate of Return 12% 99.53%

Number of Years 60.95 10

Future Value $1,000,000.00 $1,000,000.00

Desired Future Value $1,000,000.00 $1,000,000.00

According to the capital market line the standard deviation would be that

value of 5 that satisfies:

< 5 <0 !**&$ 5 !!'

5Q !"&

!"&

5 !**&$ !!' #$%%

!!'

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

The Capital Market Line

Recalling

5Q 5 5

< <0 <Q

5Q 5Q

To get a return of **&$% in the first year Mr. Smith has to borrow

5Q 5 !"& #$%

| $" !!!| | $" !!!| $"% &))

5Q !"&

Extra Homework Question:

Assuming Mr. Smith is lucky enough that each year the return of his

portfolio is indeed **&$%. What is the net present value of the cash

flow over this 10 year period that Mr. Smith has to borrow to make that

happen (assume that at the end of each year Mr. Smith pays back the money

he borrowed at the beginning of the year to get that return + interest).

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

The Capital Market Line

Example 7.2 (An oil venture):

Consider an oil drilling venture. The price of a share of this venture is $875.

It is expected to yield the equivalent of $1,000 after 1 year, but due to high

uncertainty about how much oil is at the drilling site, the standard deviation

of the return is 5 = 40%. Currently, <0 10% <Q 17%, 5Q 12%.

How does this venture compare with assets on the capital market line?

5Q 5 5

< <0 <Q

5Q 5Q

12% 40% 40%

10% 17% $$%

12% 1#%

The rate of return for the venture is

I\" $" !!!

" " "%% $$%

\! $)(&

Conclusion: The oil venture does not constitute an efficient portfolio.

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

The Capital Asset Pricing Model

-portfolio curve:

{( ( ), r ( )) | r ( ) = ri + (1 ) rM }

Capital market line:

rm rf

r= + rf

M The tangent line of the

r

M -portfolio curve at = 0

rM 5

is the capital market line.

ri 4

i

( (0), r (0)) = ( M , rM )

rf 3

1

i r

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

The Capital Asset Pricing Model

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): If the market port

folio Q is efficient, the expected return <3 of any asset 3 satisfies

<3 <0 53Q

# "3

<Q <0 5Q

where 53Q is the covariance between <3 and <Q . Conclusion:

<3 <0 53Q

<3 <Q " "3 # "

<Q <0 5Q

This is a remarkable result. It says that all we need to know to decide if

the average return of an asset <3 exceeds market performance is the

covariance of that return with the market and the variance of the

market return. Also:

"3 " <3 <Q 53 5Q (Why?)

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

The Capital Asset Pricing Model

.<

Proof: < <3 " <Q <3 <Q "

.

#

#

#

. 5

Substitution of ! in # yields

#

. 5 53Q 5Q

l! since 5 ! 5Q $

. 5Q

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

The Capital Asset Pricing Model

From $ and " we have:

.< .< . .< <3 <Q 5Q

l! #

%

. 5 . . 5 . 5 53Q 5Q

Equation % provides the directional coefficient of the tangent line of the

-portfolio curve in the < -5 diagram at !, which coincides with the

point <Q 5Q in the < -5 diagram. However, according to the one-fund

theorem the capital market line is the tangent line at Q of the efficient

frontier with the directional coefficient:

(<Q <0 )/5Q &

Equating % and & yields:

<3 <Q 5Q <Q <0 <3 <0 53Q

#

# "3

53Q 5Q 5Q <Q <0 5Q

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

The Capital Asset Pricing Model

The value "3 is referred to as the beta coefficient of the asset.

<3 <0 53Q <Q <0 53Q

# <3 <0

<Q <0 5Q 5Q 5Q

Recall that for efficient funds < / on the capital market line we have:

<Q <0 5/ 5Q 5/

</ 5/ <0 < / <Q <0

5Q 5Q 5Q

5/Q 5/Q

5/ " 3/Q " </ +<Q ,

5Q 5/ 5 Q

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

The Capital Asset Pricing Model

In other words, for efficient funds the random returns are a linear

combinations of the random market return. Solving for + and , :

</ +<Q , I</ +I</ , </ +<Q ,

5/ 5Q 5/ 5/ 5Q 5/

</ <Q <0 + , <0

5Q 5Q 5Q 5Q

Conclusion: For efficient funds the only source of uncertainty is the

market uncertainty and nothing else (more later).

Recall: # <3 <0

<Q <0 5Q 5Q 5Q

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

The Capital Asset Pricing Model

Observation 1: When 53Q !, the rate of the asset return equals <0

regardless of its risk. The explanation is that by creating a large

portfolio of these assets uncorrelated with the market and uncorrelated

with each other portfolio variance will become small (why?)

of such an asset in a port-folio reduces portfolio variance and investors

will accept an average return less than <0 for that asset with less risk.

and 5Q "&%. What is "3 and <3 when asset 3 has covariance

53Q !!%&

53Q !!%&

"3 # # <3 "3 <Q <0 <0

5Q !"&#

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

The Capital Asset Pricing Model

< 3 "3 <Q <0 <0 # !"# !!) !!) "'%.

Beta of a portfolio:

< A3 <3

8

3"

8

3"

A3 G9@<3 <Q

8

A3

8

G9@< <Q 3" G9@<3 <Q

#

# #

5Q 5Q 3"

5 Q

"< A3 "3

8

3"

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

The Security Market Line

ri ri

rm rf i ,m

ri = (rm rf ) i + rf , i = 2

ri = i ,m + rf M

M2

rM M rM M

rf rf

M2 Cov (ri , rm ) 1 i

53Q or as a function of "3 Note this is different from the Capital

Market Line that relates average return of an efficient asset to its

standard deviation 5< .

EMSE 6450 : Investment Science - Leunberger Page 18

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

Systemic Risk and Non-Systemic Risk

Asset uncertainty is the sum of market uncertainty and residual

uncertainty:

<3 "3 <Q <0 <0 %3 , %3 Error term

I%3 !

3 3 Q 0 0

#

"3 G9@<Q <Q G9@%3 <Q "3 5Q G9@%3 <Q

# 5

G9@%3 <Q 53Q "3 5Q "3 53Q

# G9@%3 <Q !

Q

term and variance of the residual uncertainty:

Z +<<3 Z +<"3 <Q <0 <0 Z +<%3

Asset Risk Systemic Risk Non-Systemic Risk

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

Systemic Risk and Non-Systemic Risk

, cannot be diversified. non-systemic Risk 5%# ,

can be diversified through portfolio construction.

systemic risk (or market risk). They do not carry non-systemic risk.

that carry the same level of " . According to the CAPM they all have

the same expected return

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

Systemic Risk and Non-Systemic Risk

r

M

Assets with

nonsystemic risk

rf

Asset with systemic risk only

The more non-systemic risk they carry the more they shift to the

right and this non-systemic risk is not correlated to market

behavior. So where is this uncertainty coming from?

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

Investment Implications

Can CAPM help with investment decisions? No easy answer.

Markowitz Solution: Assumes that all that is needed is a market fund

and a risk-free asset.

Market Fund: A fund with all available assets with proportions equal

to their market capitalization weights. Hard to do for an individual.

match the market portfolio closely.

CAPM purist: Purchase one of these index funds and some risk-free

securities such as US treasury bills.

information. This is not the case. If one believes one has superior info

one presumably could design a portfolio that outperforms the market.

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

Performance Evaluation

ABC

rABC

ABC

M rM

M

rM

rf

rf

1 M ABC

rABC rf

J = rABC { ABC (rM r f ) + r f } S = tan( ) =

ABC

Caution: For some N ! means ABC performs well, for others it

measure inaccuracy due to small sample size, and for yet others it

measure invalidity of CAPM model.

EMSE 6450 : Investment Science - Leunberger Page 23

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

Performance Evaluation - Example

Example 7.4 (ABC fund analysis):

Rate of Return Percentage

1

ABC

14%

S&P

12%

T-Bills

7%

NEFG !!!"!% Hence, ABC 2 10% 7% 8%

3 19% 20% 8%

fund can be thought of as a well 4 -8% -2% 8%

performing fund. 5

6

23%

28%

12%

23%

9%

8%

7 20% 17% 7%

8 14% 20% 7%

Sharpe Index ABC Fund: 9 -9% -5% 8%

WEFG !%$&(( whereas 10

Average

19%

13.0%

16%

12.0%

8%

7.6%

WW &T &!! !%'''* Hence, Standard Deviation 12.4% 9.4% 0.5%

since WEFG WW &T &!! it is not Geometric Mean 12.3% 11.6% 7.6%

Beta

0.01070

1.20375 1

the data. Jensen 0.00104 0.00000

Sharpe 0.43577 0.46669

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

Performance Eval. - Statistical Estimation

Average Rate of Return: Given observations <3 3 " 8

" 8

8 3"

8 %

" # 5

=#

8 " 3" 8"

8 "8 8 "8

"

3" 3"

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

Performance Eval. - Statistical Estimation

<3 3 " 8 and observations <Q 3 3 " 8

8

"

G9@< <7

8 " 3"

"

8

8" <3 s<<Q 3 s< Q

G9@< <Q 3"

"

" 8

Z +<<Q s< Q #

8" <Q 3

3"

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

CAPM as a Pricing Formula

What should be the current price : be of a random payoff U in the

future with average payoff U and beta coefficient " ? We have

U: U U

< "< " " <Q <0 <0

: : :

Pricing formula of the CAPM:

U

:

" <Q <0 <0 "

When assets payoff U is deterministic " !:

U

: i.e. price reduces to the familiar discounting formula

<0 "

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

CAPM as a Pricing Formula

Gavin is thinking about investing in a mutual fund (institutional portfolio).

This fund invests "!% of its funds at the risk-free rate <0 and the remaining

*!% in the market portfolio. Currently, <0 (%, <Q "&% One share of

the fund costs $"!!. Is this the right price?

<3 <0 " <Q <3 !"! !!( !*! !"& !"%#

# "3 <Q <0 <Q <0 " "3 !*!

U ""%#!

" # : " <Q <0 <0 " !*!!"&!!(!!(" $"!!.

EMSE 6450 : Investment Science - Leunberger Page 28

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

CAPM as a Pricing Formula

Consider an oil drilling venture. The price of a share of this venture is $875.

It is expected to be equivalent to $1,000 after 1 year i.e. U $" !!!

Currently, the standard deviation of the return < is 5 = %!%, " !',

<0 "!% and <Q "(%. What is the value of a share based on CAPM?

U $1000

: $)('.

" <Q <0 <0 " !'!"( !"! !"! "

Note that 5 = %!% does not enter the calculation, but 53Q does via " .

U: " G9@< <Q G9@U <Q

< U"" #

#

: : 5Q : 5Q

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

Certainty Equivalent Formula

Using the fact that

U U

: : G9@U<Q

" <Q <0 <0 " # <Q <0 <0 "

:5Q

U

G9@U<Q

"

#

5Q

<Q <0 :<0 "

G9@U <Q <Q <0

#

:<0 " U

5Q

U

" G9@U <Q <Q <0

: #

" <0 5Q

term in brackets is called The Certainty Equivalent of the random U.

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

Certainty Equivalent Formula

Linearity of Pricing :

U"#

" G9@U"# <Q <Q <0

:"# #

" <0 5Q

U" U#

" [G9@U" <Q G9@U# <Q ] <Q <0

#

" <0 5Q

U"

" G9@U" <Q <Q <0

#

" <0 5Q

U# : " :#

" G9@U# <Q <Q <0

+ #

" <0 5Q

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

Certainty Equivalent Formula

Example 7.7 (Gavin tries again The Price is Right):

Gavin is thinking about investing in a mutual fund (institutional portfolio).

This fund invests "!% of its funds at the risk-free rate <0 and the

remaining *!% in the market portfolio. Currently, <0 (%, <Q "&%

One share of the fund costs $"!!. Is this the right price?

U

<3 " <3 " <Q <0 "3 "

"!!

G9@U <Q #

"3 #

G9@U <Q $ "!! " 5 Q

$"!! 5Q

Thus

U

#

" $"!! " 5Q <Q <0

: #

" <0 5Q

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

Certainty Equivalent Formula

Thus:

"

:

" <0

$""%#! $"!! " !"! !"& !!(

"

"!(

$"!(

$"!!

"!(

Conclusion:

Chapters 7 : Capital Asset Pricing Model Notes by J. Rene van Dorp

Adapted from notes by: Sleyman zekici, Department of Industrial Engineering, Ko University www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr

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