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 Technical Pa… Global demand for polyethylene to rise 4% pa to almost 100 mln tons
Technical Pa…
Global demand for polyethylene to rise 4% pa to almost 100 mln tons in 2018
Global demand for polyethylene to rise 4% pa to almost 100 mln tons in 2018
12-Dec-14
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percent-to-100-million-tons-in-2018%2F2189&title=Global%20demand%20for%20polyethylene%20to%20rise%204%25%20pa%
20almost%20100%20mln%20tons%20in%202018%C2%A0)
Global demand for polyethylene resins (H L report by Freedonia. Gains will match overall world economic
Global demand for polyethylene resins (H
L
report by Freedonia. Gains will match overall world economic growth, fuelled by an acceleration in consumer spending and manufactur
Polyethylene will continue to be the most widely used plastic resin in the world, benefiting from its versatility, easy processability, low co
recyclability. The development of ethylene feedstocks from new sources such as shale gas, coal, and biobased materials will also give
price or sustainability advantage relative to other plastic resins. Moreover, continually improving polymeriz ation catalyst technologies w
DPE,
L
DPE,
and L
DPE) will rise 4% pa to 99.6
mln metric tons in 2018, valued at U
S
$
16
4 b
,
,
performance, customiz ation, and yield of polyethylene resins. H
DPE is the most widely used of the three polyethylene resins, accountin
j
under half of total demand in 2013. Analyst K ent Furst notes, however, that further increases in polyethylene demand will be limited by
factors: "Polyethylene is a highly commoditiz ed and mature product, and large volume new applications are unlikely to emerge in the fo
future. Additionally, polyethylene (like all plastics) is perceived negatively by many environmentally-minded consumers, and maj or poly
applications such as plastic bags have increasingly become subj ect to regulations and bans."
The Asia-Pacific region will continue to be the largest and fastest growing polyethylene market through 2018, fuelled by strong growth i
alone accounted for nearly one-q uarter of global demand in 2013. I ndia and V ietnam will also be among the world' s most rapidly expan
,
H
owever, advances in most emerging Asian countries will rise at a slower pace than during the 2008-2013 period. On the other hand, N
will see a significant improvement in polyethylene demand, while the markets in Western Europe and J apan will rebound from recent d
Global polyethylene demand is forecast to rise by approximately 3.7 % pa between 2013 and 2018, at a slightly higher level than its gro
S
will witness a 2.4% growth rate pa during the forecast period, in comparison to its 0.7 % levels from 2003 to 2013. Meanwhile, demand i
2003 to 2013 period, says a report from GlobalData. This higher-than-historic increase will occur in the U
and Europe, primarily in R
us
U
S
,
including R
ussia, will climb at 2.8% pa from 2013 to 2018, almost three times the level witnessed during the last decade. These deman
U
S
to the region' s slower economic growth.
and R
ussia will be somewhat offset by a lower increase of 4.8% in Asia, compared to its 6 % rate during 2003 and 2013. This will be
Carmine R
S
providing the country with a competitive advantage, with increasing investments in its petrochemical plants driving polyethylene deman
both domestic and international markets. Although below recent historical levels, demand in Asia remains fairly robust and will continue
ositano, GlobalData' s Managing Analyst covering Downstream Oil & Gas, says, "L ower feedstock costs from U
shale gas p
expansion in the global polyethylene market. As a result, polyethylene capacity is now expected to increase at about 5.3% per year bet
and 2018, which is higher than the 3.6 % experienced over the last decade. Capacity additions will be most prevalent in the U
S
,
given it
cost competitive position, and also R
ussia, which is augmenting its petrochemical industry to reduce its reliance on imports. N
ew capac
continue to come online in Asia, but at a slower-than-historic rate."
GlobalData states that despite the lower estimated cost of crude oil in the forward price curve to 2018, prices for polyethylene will incre
1.3% per year up to the end of the forecast period. This is attributable to petrochemical demand increasing at approximately three time
that for oil. The key trend emerging in the polyethylene market will be the ongoing surplus position in the U
S , where excess production
directed to expanding markets in S outh America and Asia. Additionally, the lower feedstock and fuel costs for U
Europe, will likely result in future European plant closures and further adj ust global polyethylene trade flows.”
S
plants, compared wit
Global polyethylene demand growth is expected to ramp up fairly soon, averaging almost 5% pa between 2012 and 2017
as per N
ick V
,
S
director of global polyolefins and plastics for I H
S
bln lbs by 2017 . "That growth exceeds the current level of N
Chemical, as reported by PlasticsN
,
ews. Annual growth of 4.6 % in that five-year span
global demand sitting at j ust over 216
orth American demand, " V afiadis sai
orth America, that momentum is com
'
growing another N
orth America in the next five years. The market has mass and momentum." I n N
newfound supplies of natural gas, mainly from shale rock formations. These new supplies can be used to make ethane and then ethyle
The discoveries have led to a wave of expansion announcements, including around 11 bln lbs of new PE capacity that' s set to hit N
orth
toward the end of that five-year forecast period. These proj ections don' t even include new capacity from I neos Group and Dow Chemic
j
were announced in late March. "S trong margins are leading to capacity increases, " he said. Much of the new N
orth American PE capac
targeted at export markets, which are expected to grow by 5% over the forecast period. Domestic demand also is expected to improve
of that period. One positive impact of the new N orth American PE capacity should be a resurgence for the region' s PE processors, esp
of film and bags. As N orth America gets new production capacity, there will be an increase in processor capacity in the U .S . The dome
become more competitive. S ome big U
.S . processors will expand to take advantage of the new [ PE] capacity in N
orth America. leading
exports of [ PE] finished goods.
Globally, PE capacity additions in that span are expected to exceed 57 bln lbs. But some regions will benefit more than others. Growth
East will continue to move forward as countries there invest in infrastructure and a growing population drives consumer markets. Europ '
however, is expected to struggle, with demand down and imports on the rise. More than 2 bln lbs — about 7 .5% of Europe' s PE capaci
expected to be shut down by 2017 . I n China, PE capacity and demand are headed up, but operating rates are expected to remain low.
for that country' s PE market, V afiadis said, is to rationaliz e higher-cost plants and to move away from commodity products. N o new PE
slated for L atin America through 2017 , which will improve that region' s operating rates. Globally, new PE capacity should lower global o
,
almost 1%, from 84.2% in 2007 -12 to 83.4 percent in 2012-17 . N
orth America' s PE operating rates will be the highest in the world in tha
7
period, ranging from 85-90%. "U
.S . producers [ from 2012-17 ] will have the luxury of being able to export and get healthy returns to eve
world. That will keep operating rates high. Post-2015, U
.S . producers will have to rely on export sales outside of S outh America. China'
leverage down export prices and the domestic price as we move to global price parity. When the new PE capacity arrives in N
orth Ame
,

producers "will put an emphasis on domestic supply, " V afiadis added. "S o we could see N orth American prices drop lower for a short p global operating rates improve."

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