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Using Designed Experiments DOE to Minimize Moisture

Loss
Marilyn Wheatley http://blog.minitab.com/blog/marilynwheatleysblog . 20 February, 2017

9 http://blog.minitab.com/blog/marilynwheatleysblog/usingdesignedexperimentsdoetominimizemoistureloss

As a person who loves baking and eating

cakes, I find it bothersome to go through all
the effort of baking a cake when the end result
is too dry for my taste. For that reason, I
7 Deadly decided to use a designed experiment in

Statistical Minitab to help me reduce the moisture loss in

baked chocolate cakes, and find the optimal
Sins Even the settings of my input factors to produce a moist
Experts Make baked chocolate cake. Ill share the details of
the design and the results in this post.
Do you know how to
avoid them?
Choosing Input Factors for the
Designed Experiment
Get the facts >
Because I like to use premixed chocolate cake mixes, I decided to use two of my favorite cake
http://blog.minitab.com/blog/landing
pages/7deadly mix brands for the experiment. For the purpose of this post, Ill call the brands A and B.
statisticalsins? Thinking about what could impact the loss of moisture, it is likely that the baking time and the
WT.ac=blog7deadlysideoven temperature will affect the results. Therefore, the factors or inputs that I decided to use
for the experiment are:

1. Cake mix brand: A or B categorical data

2. Oven temperature: 350 or 380 degrees Fahrenheit continuous data
3. Baking time: 38 or 46 minutes continuous data

Measuring the Response

Next, I needed a way to measure the moisture loss. For this experiment, I used an electronic
food scale to weigh each cake in the same baking pan before and after baking, and then
used those weights in conjunction with the formula below to calculate the percent of
moisture lost for each cake:

% Moisture Loss = 100 x initial weight final weight

initial weight

Designing the Experiment

3
For this experiment, I decided to construct a 23 full factorial design with center points
http://blog.minitab.com/blog/statisticsandqualityimprovement/gummibeardoewhat
dothecenterpointsshow to detect any possible curvature in the response surface. Since
the cake mix brand is categorical and therefore has no center point between brand A and
brand B, the number of center points will be doubled for that factor. Because of this, Id have
to bake 10 cakes which, even for me, is too many in a single day. Therefore, I decided to run
the experiment over two days. Because differences between the days on which the data was
collected could potentially introduce additional variation, I decided to add a block to the
design to account for any potential variation due to the day.

To create my design in Minitab, I use Stat > DOE > Factorial > Create Factorial Design:

Minitab 17 makes it easy to enter the details of the design. First, I selected 3 as the number
of factors:

Next, I clicked on the Designs button above. In the Designs window, I can tell Minitab what
type of design Id like to use with my 3 factors:
In the window above, Ive selected a full 23 design, and also added 2 blocks to account for
variation between days, and 1 center point per block. After making the selections and clicking
OK in the above window, I clicked on the Factors button in the main window to enter the
details about each of my factors:

Because center points are doubled for categorical factors, and because this design has two
blocks, the final design will have a total of 4 center points. After clicking OK in the window
above, I ended up with the design shown below with 12 runs:
Performing the Experiment and Analyzing the Data
After spending an entire weekend baking cakes and calculating the moisture loss for each
one, I entered the data into Minitab for the analysis. I also brought in a lot of cake to share
with my colleagues at Minitab!

With the moisture loss for each of my 12 cakes recorded in column C8 in the experiment
worksheet, Im ready to analyze the results.

In Minitab, I used Stat > DOE > Factorial > Analyze Factorial Design...and then entered the
Moisture Loss column in the Responses field:
In the window above, I also clicked on Terms to make sure Im only including the main effects
and twoway interactions. After clicking OK in each window, Minitab produced a Pareto chart
of the standardized effects that I could use to reduce my model:

I can see from the above graph that the main effects A, B and C all significantly impact the
moisture of the cake, since the bars that represent those terms on the graph extend beyond
the red vertical reference line. All of the twoway interactions AB, AC and BC are not
significant.

I can also see the same information in the ANOVA table in Minitabs session window:
In the above ANOVA table, we can see that the cake mix brand, oven temp, and baking time
are all significant since their pvalues are lower than my alpha of 0.05.

We can also see that all of the 2way interactions have pvalues higher than 0.05, so Ill
conclude that those interactions are not significant and should be removed from the model.

Interestingly, the pvalue for the blocks http://blog.minitab.com/blog/statisticsandquality

improvement/gummibeardoewhatdotheblocksmean is significant with a pvalue of
0.01. This indicates that there was indeed a difference between the two days in which the
data was collected which impacted the results. I'm glad I accounted for that additional
variation by including a block in my design!

Analyzing the Reduced Model

To analyze my reduced model, I can go back to Stat > DOE > Factorial > Analyze Factorial
Design. This time when I click the Terms button Ill keep only the main effects, and remove
the twoway interactions. Minitab displays the following ANOVA table for the reduced model:

The table shows that all the terms Ive included mix brand, oven temp, and baking time are
significant since all the pvalues for these terms are lower than 0.05. We can also see that the
test for curvature based on the center points http://blog.minitab.com/blog/michelle
paret/doecenterpointswhattheyarewhytheyreuseful is not significant pvalue =
0.587, so we can conclude that the relationship between the three factors and moisture loss
is linear.
The rsquared http://blog.minitab.com/blog/adventuresinstatistics2/regressionanalysis
howdoiinterpretrsquaredandassessthegoodnessoffit, rsquared adjusted, and r
squared predicted are all quite high, so this model seems to be a very good fit to the data.

Checking the Residuals

Now I can take a look at the residual plots to make sure all the model assumptions
http://support.minitab.com/enus/minitab/17/topiclibrary/modelingstatistics/regression
andcorrelation/residualsandresidualplots/residualplotsinminitab/ for my model have
been met:

The residuals in the graph above appear to be normally distributed. The residuals versus fits
graph appears to show the points are randomly scattered above and below 0 which indicates
constant variance, and the residuals versus order graph doesnt suggest any patterns that
could be due to the order in which the data was collected.

Now that I'm confident the assumptions for the model have been met, Ill use this model to
determine the optimal settings of my factors so that going forward all the cakes I make will
be moist and fabulous!

Optimizing the Response

I can use Minitabs Response Optimizer and my model to tell me exactly what combination
of cake mix brand, oven temperature, and baking time Ill want to use to get the moistest
cake. I selectStat > DOE > Factorial > Response Optimizer:


In the above window, I can tell Minitab what my goal is. In this case, I want to know what
input settings to use so that the moisture loss will be minimized. Therefore, I
chooseMinimize above and then clickOK:

In the above graph, the optimal settings for my factors are marked in red near the top. Using
the model that Ive fit to my data, Minitab is telling me that I can use Brand B with an oven
temperature of 350 and a baking time of 38 minutes to minimize the moisture loss. Using
those values for the inputs, I can expect the moisture loss will be approximately 3.3034, which
is quite low compared to the moisture loss for the cakes collected as part of the experiment.
 Success! Now I can use these optimal settings, and Ill never waste my time baking a dry cake
again.

If youve enjoyed this post about DOE, you may also like to read some of our other DOE blog
posts http://blog.minitab.com/?blog_id=41ce27e8906e42608bd9
178236c098c4&search_terms=DOE&buttonsubmit.x=0&buttonsubmit.y=0&button
submit=Submit.

You Might Also Like:

Optimizing Attribute Responses using Design of Experiments DOE, Part 2 http://blog.minitab.com/blog/statisticsinthe
field/optimizingattributeresponsesusingdesignofexperimentsdoepart2
Creating a Fishbone Diagram in Minitab http://blog.minitab.com/blog/marilynwheatleysblog/creatingafishbone
diagraminminitab
Unleash the Power of Linear Models with Minitab 17 http://blog.minitab.com/blog/adventuresinstatistics2/unleashthe
poweroflinearmodelswithminitab17
A Fun ANOVA: Does Milk Affect the Fluffiness of Pancakes? http://blog.minitab.com/blog/statisticsinthefield/afun
anova3adoesmilkaffectthefluffinessofpancakes

Comments

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Jointhediscussion

hkmail7810daysago
Thanksforsharingandveryintuitivecasestudy.Myquestionissinceblockissignificant(daytoday
variation),howshouldIquantifytheeffectofblocktothetotalvariation?WhathappenedwhentheRSq(adj)
modelismoderate,andblockissignificantlyexplainedthevariationofMoistureLoss?Pleaseadvise.
Reply Share

Marilyn>hkmail783daysago
Hithere!

Thanksforreadingtheblog!Bydefinition,theblockisacategoricalvariablethatexplainsvariationin
theresponse(themoisturelossinthiscase)thatisnotcausedbythefactorsinthestudy.Byincluding
theblock,weareaccountingforanypossiblevariationduetothedayinthemodel,butthedayon
whichthedatawascollectedisnotafactorinthestudy.Ifwewantedtolearnmoreaboutthedayon
whichthedatawascollected,we'dneedtocreateadesignwherethedayisafactorinthestudy.In
theexampleabove,theRsquaredadjustedisquitehigh,andtheblockwasleftinthefinalmodelsince
itseffectissignificant.
Ihopethishelps!
Marilyn
Reply Share

PhucNguyenQuang6daysago
Manythanks,IalsowouldliketoknowhowtoestablishRegressionEquationinUncodedUnitsincludeblocks
andthecenterpoint
Reply Share
 Marilyn>PhucNguyenQuang3daysago
HiPhuc,

Thanksforreadingtheblog!Aspartoftheoutput,Minitabprovidestheregressionequationinuncoded
unitsinthesessionwindow.Thisequationisusedforpredictionsintheresponseoptimizer.Ifyoukeep
boththeblocksandthecenterpointinthemodel,Minitabdisplaysthefollowinginformationinthe
sessionwindow:

RegressionEquationinUncodedUnits

MoistureLoss=13.1710.1287MixBrand+0.03271Temp+0.13568BakingTime
+0.0339CtPt

Equationaveragedoverblocks.

The'CtPt'intheequationisthecenterpoint.Asthemessageabovesuggests,theequationis
averagedovertheblocks:Essentiallyweareaccountingforanyvariationduetothedayonwhichthe
datawascollected,butthatisnotintheequationitselfsincetheblockwasnotoneofthefactorsinthe
study.

Ihopethishelps!
Marilyn
Reply Share

PhucNguyenQuang>Marilyn2daysago
Thankssomuch,Istilldidnotunderstand,ifIusetheRegressionEquationinUncodedUnits
butMixBrandandCtPtarenotanumericfactors,willIdo?
Reply Share

Marilyn>PhucNguyenQuang2daysago
HiPhuc,
Thanksforyourreply.Theequationisaveragedovertheblocksforyou,sothereis
nothingelsethatneedstobedonewiththeblockandtheequation.Thecenterpointis
forandindicator/dummyvariable.Ifyou'reincludingthecenterpointintheequationuse
a1asthevaluetomultiplybythecoefficient,andthecoefficientwillbe0.0339inthe
exampleabove.Ifyoudon'twanttousethecenterpointuse0insteadtomultiplybythe
coefficient.
Thanks,
Marilyn
Reply Share

Miguel3daysago
Ican'thelptoaskifyouhaveactuallytriedtobakethe"optimized"cakeandhowclosedidyoucometothe
predictedvalue?
Reply Share

Marilyn>Miguel2daysago
HiMiguel!
Thankssomuchforreading!Yes...confirmationruns!Believeitornot,Iwasprettycakedoutafter
bakingsomanycakes,somynewobsessionhasshiftedtodonuts(fornow).Butyoubringupagood
point.Atyoursuggestion,IthinkI'llbakeafewmorecakesattheoptimalfactorsettingsandthenwrite
anotherpostaboutthecapabilityoftheprocess.Staytuned,andthankyouagainforreading!
Marilyn
Reply Share

Miguel>Marilyn2daysago
Iwouldlovetoreadthatnewpost!Oryoucanmeasureyourinputsdistributionandsimulate
 Iwouldlovetoreadthatnewpost!Oryoucanmeasureyourinputsdistributionandsimulate
theMonteCarloCake!
Reply Share

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