Critical Analysis on Technical Education in Goan

Scenario

Dissertation
Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements
For the degree of
ME (Industrial Engineering)

by
Ambika M. V
(Roll No. 00419301)

Guide: Prof. Arun D. Telang

Co-Guide: Prof. Mariappan V

Department of Mechanical Engineering

College of Engineering, Goa
(Government of Goa)
Goa University
(2004)
 Approval Sheet
This is to certify that Shri /Smt Xxxxxx, bearing Roll no. xxx/xx, has been admitted to
the candidacy of degree (branch) in month-year and he/she has undertaken the thesis /
dissertation entitled xxxxxxxxxxxxxx which is approved for the degree of BE
(branch)/ME (branch)/Ph.D. under Goa University as it is found satisfactory.

Examiners

__________________

__________________

Guide(s)

_____________________

_____________________

Head of the Department _____________________

Date:_____________
Place:_____________

i
 Dedication Sheet

This thesis is dedicated to my parents and teachers/key persons.

ii
 Abstract

The availability condition of a production facility makes notable impact to the

productivity. The results of having no clear strategic approach to preventive maintenance
lead to many undesirable consequences. The reliability-centered maintenance (RCM)
considerations underlie the identification of equipment monitoring requirements and help
establish the need for, the type of, and the frequencies of preventive maintenance and
replacement activities. It was found that there is a significant scope to enhance the
application potential of RCM, which can be accomplished through developing suitable
subsystems and methodologies. Three models involving multicriteria have been
developed to evaluate the suitability of Preventive Maintenance (PM) and Breakdown
Maintenance (BDM) and also to derive the optimal schedule for PM if it is desirable. A
graphical aid based on two-parameter Weibull distribution termed as Decision chart
was developed and the utilities of which are explained in the thesis. This procedure was
test validated with the help of three test cases.

As maintenance strategies greatly rely on how accurate the Weibull parameters are an
integrated system consisting of nomograph and set of equations was developed and
reported. The effectiveness of the system developed was test validated with t-test, F-test
and residual analysis, the details of which are also reported in the thesis. An additional
criterion was established to find better suitability of BDM and PM for an equipment.
Using four criteria two methods namely iterative process and graphical aid for
maintenance analysts (GAMA) were developed and discussed. Using these methods
suitability of BDM and PM can be found out and in case of PM, the optimal schedule can
be obtained. An additional category of further analysis of an equipment can also be
obtained. The usefulness of these models was demonstrated with the help of four test
problems.
 iii

Contents

Title Page No.

List of Figures vi
List of Tables vii
List of Abbreviations x
List of Notations xii
Chapter 1 Introduction 1 - 10
1.0 Preamble 1
1.1 Reliability and Maintainability Analysis 2
1.1.1 Reliability Analysis 2
1.1.2 Maintainability Analysis 3
1.2 Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) 4
1.2.1 Task Categories 5
1.3 The Problem on Hand 6
1.4 Outline of the Thesis 7
Chapter 2 Literature Review 11 - 46
2.0 Introduction 11
2.1 Maintenance Policies 13
2.2 Literature on RCM 14
2.2.1 The bathtub Curve Fallacy 15
2.2.2 What is RCM? 17
2.2.3 Literature on RCM Applications 18
2.3 Literature on RCM Methodology 24
2.3.1 Literature on Maintenance Policies 25
2.3.2 Literature on Reliability Assessment 31
2.3.3 Literature on Maintenance Significance 35
2.3.4 Literature on Other Related Issues 42
2.4 Conclusion 45
 iv
List of Figures

Figure No. Title Page No.

2.1 Age-reliability patterns 16

2.2 Plant savings per year through implementation of RCM 19
3.1 Decision diagram 56
3.2 Point of intersection of -curve and decision line leaves major 60
portion on its right side
3.3 Point of intersection does not leave major portion on its right 61
side
3.4 -curve and decision line are not intersecting 61
3.5 Optimum schedule using maximizing the gap 62
3.6 Plot of a criterion 62
3.7 Decision chart (chart to use the decision diagram) 66
3.8 Flow chart for using decision diagram 67
3.9 Map of various scenarios 73
4.1 Nomograph for reliability assessment 84
4.2 Accuracy of WPP in respect of shape parameter 90
4.3 Accuracy of Chi-square test in respect of shape parameter 90
4.4 Accuracy of Nomograph in respect of shape parameter 90
4.5 Accuracy of WPP in respect of scale parameter 92
4.6 Accuracy of Chi-square test in respect of scale parameter 92
4.7 Accuracy of Nomograph in respect of scale parameter 92
4.8 Corrected scale parameter (Nomograph) 94
4.9 CV-Fit 95
4.10 System of finding 95
4.11 Accuracy of CV-Fit in respect of shape parameter 96
4.12 Accuracy of CV-Fit in respect of scale parameter 97
4.13 Components of the Decision Aid 101
4.14 Flow chart for using integrated system as a decision aid to 104
perform reliability assessment using Weibull distribution
 v
List of Tables

Table No. Title Page No.

2.1 Machine criticality 22

2.2 Life distribution of selected equipments 23
2.3 Lube related failure modes 23
2.4 Basic failure processes and their statistical distributions 33
3.1 Data of three test cases 65
3.2 Summary of results obtained in sample case 2 69
3.3 Summary of results of all the three sample cases 69
4.1 Summary statistics of the test data 86
4.2 Parameter estimated for the sample data 86
4.3 The salient measures of the simulated data 88
4.4 Comparison of estimates of s and s made by the three 89
methods
4.5 Findings from the scatter plots for 91
4.6 Findings from the scatter plots for scale parameter 93
5.1 Data of three test cases 132
5.2 Iteration results of Test Problem 1 133
5.3 Iteration results of Test Problem 2 134
5.4 Iteration results of Test Problem 3 134
5.5 Iteration results of Test Problem 4 135
5.6 Iteration convergence for Test Problem 1 138
5.7 Iteration convergence for Test Problem 2 139
5.8 Iteration convergence for Test Problem 3 139
5.9 Iteration convergence for Test Problem 4 139
5.10 Results of the iteration convergence of the four test problems 140
5.11 Data of three test cases 151
5.12 Summary of results of all the four sample cases 152
5.13 Data of four test cases with the results of Graphical aid 165
5.14 Summary of results of all the three sample cases using 166
Graphical aid
 vi
List of Abbreviations
AHP Analytic Hierarchy Process
ANOVA Analysis of variation
BDM Breakdown Maintenance
BSG Buyer-Seller Game
CBM Condition Based Maintenance
CD Condition Directed Preventive Maintenance
CRITIC Criteria Importance Through Inter-criteria Correlation
CV Coefficient of Variation
DIM Differential Important Measure
dof Degrees of freedom
EDF Electricite de France
EPRI Electric Power Research Institute
ERT Equipment Repair Time
exp Exponential
FF Failure-Finding
FMEA Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
FMECA Failure mode Effects and Criticality Analysis
FSI Functional Significant Item
FTA Fault Tree Analysis
GP Goal programming
GRG Generalized Reduced Gradient
HAZOP Hazard and Operability
IFR Increasing Failure Rate
ISO International Organization for Standardization
IT Information Technology
LSF Linear Sensitivity Factor
LTA Logic Tree Analysis
MA Multicrirteria Analysis
MAA Multi-criteria Analysis Algorithm
MCDM Multi-Criteria Decision Making
 vii
List of Notations
A Availability criterion
Ab Availability in case of BDM
A0 Loss due to shift of y to specification limits
[aij] Judgmental matrix
Ap Availability in case of PM
ar Weight assigned to the rth output in BSG model
Ai(T) Availability function of ith MSI
b1 Weight assigned to the single input in BSG model
C Average maintenance cost per unit time criterion
Cb Average maintenance cost rate for Breakdown Maintenance
cb Maintenance cost per unit time for Breakdown Maintenance
Ci(T) Average maintenance cost per unit time function of ith MSI
Cj Multiplicative aggregation of contrast and conflict in CRITIC method
Cp Average maintenance cost rate for PM
cp Maintenance cost per unit time for PM
CPP Second factor of the expression average maintenance cost per unit time
C Total operational cost in period t which is equal to (Nf Cf + Nm Cp)
Cp Process capability index
Cf Additional cost of the consequences of the equipment failure
Cr Cost of replacement which includes cost of the replaced item, maintenance,
down time and production interruption
D2 Difficult to obtain spare
dA Deviation in availability criterion
dC Deviation in average maintenance cost per unit time criterion
di Standardized residual
dP Deviation in average earning per unit time criterion
di+ and dI- Collectively known as Hamming distance
[Eaj] Evaluation matrix in BSG method
E(X) Expected value of random variable X
E1 Essential
 viii

Chapter 1

Introduction

1.0 Preamble

Stiff competition in global market, country wide movement towards globalization and a
long recession across the globe draw the attention of every core sector to change their
perception of business and business strategies. This prevailing scenario forces one to
concentrate on core areas like capacity management and assurance sciences.

The assurance sciences are engineering disciplines, which govern the quality, safety,
economy, serviceability and long-term dependability of products. These disciplines
perform vital roles in the development of todays complex equipment by predicting and
demonstrating the results. Technology is a key resource of profound importance for
corporate profitability and growth. Effective management of technology links
engineering, science and management disciplines to address the issues involved in the
planning, development and implementation of technological capabilities to shape and
accomplish the strategic and operational objectives of an organization.
1

Chapter 10

Conclusion

10.0 Summary

Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) is the concept of developing a maintenance

scheme based on the reliability of the various components of the system or product in
question. Implementing a preventative maintenance program using RCM can greatly
reduce the cost of ownership of a product or system. RCM program can optimize the
maintainability of the system, as it possesses a number of features to
1. preserve system function
2. identify failure modes that can defeat the functions
3. prioritize functions need via failure modes
4. select only the applicable and effective PM tasks
A large number of industrial sectors of different kind specifically, power plants,
aero-industries, processing industries, foundry sectors, marine engineering and steel
plants have successfully implemented RCM. It was reported by Worledge (1993b) that
around 500 industrial sites in 27 countries have been using RCM.
2

References

1. Chen, L. and Tsai, F. (2001), Fuzzy goal programming with different importance and
priorities, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol 133, pp. 548-556.
2. Chen, T. and Popova, E. (2002), Maintenance policies with two-dimensional
warranty, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol 77, pp. 61-69.
3. Cheng, K. and Lam, Y. (2001), Reliability bounds on HNBUE life distributions with
known first two moments, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol
132, pp. 163-175.
4. Collet, J. and Bon, J.L. (2002), Bracketing of failure path probability in a system
with ageing repair times, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol 76, pp.
139-147.
5. Cooke, F.L. (2000), Implementing TPM in plant maintenance: some organizational
barriers, International Journal of Reliability and Quality Management, Vol 17 No
9, pp. 1003-1016.
6. Cox, D.R. (1990), Quality and reliability: some recent developments and a historical
perspective, Journal of Operations Research, Vol 42 No 2, pp. 95-101.
7. Creveling, C.M. (1997), Tolerance Design A handbook for developing optimal
specifications, Addison-Wesley Longman Inc., Canada.

3
 Appendix 2

Exhibit 2.1

Solver code

A1 : T

B1:0.0023*(A1-power(A1,3)/(7.2*power(10,5))+power(A1,5)/(5.7*power(10,11))-

power(A1,7)/(5.7*power(10,17)))

C1:1-0.73*exp(-power(A1,2)/(2.4*power(10,5)))

D1:B1/(B1+0.0043*C1)

E1:exp(-power(A1,2)/(2.4*power(10,5)))+8.4*power(10,-6)*(power(A1,2)-power(A1,4)/

(6.1*power(10,5))+power(A1,6)/(5.7*power(10,11))-power(A1,8)/

(5.7*power(10,17)))

Solver Parameters

Target cell: D1

Set at: max

Changing cell: A1

Subject to constraints

A1 10000

A1 0

B1 1
 A1

Acknowledgements

I am greatly indebted to my guide Prof. A. R. Naik, Professor of Mechanical Engineering

Department, College of Engineering, Goa for his valuable guidance throughout the
dissertation, without which the study undertaken would not have been accomplished at
all.

My sincere thanks to my co-guide, Prof. George Easaw, Faculty, Department of

Mechanical Engineering, College of Engineering, Goa for the constant support and
encouragement rendered through out the mission.