Series 170

79
77
72
81 Date
Mon,
Tue,
Wed,
Thu,
Fri, Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec 16 12
1314
15 2016
2016 Forecast of SerieFitted
2016
2016 Values 77
75.187265236
76.409196501
76.720257718 79
80
83
85
80
74
67 Sat,
Sun,
Mon,
Tue,
Wed,
Thu, Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec 17
18
19
2021
22 2016
2016
2016
2016
2016 79.729381249
82.60540679
82.364805516
77.83573804
73.796031946
71.28959764
70
65
60
80
79
76 Fri,
Sat,
Sun,
Mon,
Tue,
Wed, Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec 2324
25
26
27 2016
282016
2016
2016
2016 68.17271595
66.55699256
69.098797082
72.798372193
76.535911587
75.604777396
72
74
71 Thu,
Fri,
Sat,
Sun,
Mon,
Tue, Dec
Dec
Dec
Jan
Jan
Jan 30
1
35229
31 2016
2016
2016
2017
2017
2017 73.796031946
74.181415534
74.128324964
72.134394171
71.694637402
72.672640981
72
74
73
71
70 Wed,
Thu,
Fri,
Sat,
Sun,
Mon, Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan67 42017
89 2017
2017
2017
2017 73.494749537
72.010451913
71.447414514
71.918253704
71.594023256
69.283722236 Series 1
68
64
59 Tue,
Wed,
Thu,
Fri,
63 Tue,
Sat,
Sun, Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan 1310
1411
12
15 2017
2017
2017
2017
2017
2017 67.986294088
67.64339247
66.525419839
63.086609335
61.929333342
62.614143959
65
60
57
59 Mon,
Wed,
Thu,
Fri,
Sat, Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan 201716
18
19
21 2017
2017
2017
2017
2017 61.836961679
59.492283852
58.097378584
57.962089087
59.682805227
60.979590949
68
67
65
64 Sun,
Mon,
Tue,
Wed,
Thu,
Fri, Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan 27 22
2423
25
26 2017
2017
2017
2017 63.289059224
66.637542768
67.792570694
65.565454496
65.143230881
68
70
85
80
82
75 Sat,
Sun,
Mon,
Tue,
Wed,
Thu, Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Feb
Feb 28
29
331 12017
30 2017
2017
2017
2017 66.763273981
70.200157316
73.125932235
76.639095154
80.34224496
80.464079234
76 Fri, Feb 72 2017
2017 77.21602675
76.391872266
77 Sat, Feb160 4 2017 77.953351917
80
79
78
89
90
94 Sun,
Mon,
Tue,
Wed,
Thu,
Fri, Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb 10 56
98 2017
2017
2017
2017 79.323643466
79.323045137
81.830775793
86.377343173
91.868436921
96.798903518
101
122
134
140
138
148 Sat,
Sun,
Mon,
Tue,
Wed,
Thu, Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb 11
12
1413
15
16 2017
2017
2017
2017
2017 106.05861878
119.19318971
130.64325306
135.59283028
140.29898871
144.46516347
149
139
138
141
134
130 Fri,
Sat,
Sun,
Mon,
Tue,
Wed, Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb 1718
19
2120
222017
2017
2017
2017
2017 145.46891805
141.41811641
138.32120561
137.67567798
136.09200173
129.14783286
126
121
115
94
95 Thu,
Fri,
Sat,
Sun,
Mon,
Tue, Feb
Feb
Feb14024
Feb
Feb
Feb 23
25
26
2827 2017
2017
2017
2017
2017 123.98227813
121.83354517
116.83130875
107.08611093
101.85582969
95.681452918
101
66
89
106
100
96 Wed,
Thu,
Fri,
Sat,
Sun,
Mon, Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar 3 4212017
5
6 2017
2017
2017
2017
2017 89.587565384
88.370829972
89.371073865
94.549872003
99.724772216
96.179192228
94
90
88
104
102
96 Tue,
Wed,
Thu,
Fri,
Sat,
Sun, Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar 10 7
9
118
122017
2017
2017
2017 92.46135996
93.5440223
96.30346491
95.931307712
97.282206268
98.573270811
95
94
95
93
90 Mon,
Tue,
Wed,
Thu,
Fri,
Sat, Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar 17 13
14
15
16
18 2017
2017
2017
2017
2017 96.937040337
93.57640481
92.955805735
93.795484726
93.389017946
90.601790617
88 Thu,
94
90 Sun,
Mon,
Tue,
Wed,
Fri, Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar 19
20
21
22
23 2017
2017
201
20
201 91.336725181
89.417837652
89.190487093 89.86551964
90.637493527
91.336725181
Tue,Mar
Sat,
Sun,
Mon,
Wed,
Thu,
Fri,
Mar
Mar12024
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar 31
2526
27
28
29
30
2017
201
201 90.673374348
91.391952579
89.40558406
20 89.163896431
201
201
2017 90.686174922
91.399038106
89.400742436
89.160915776
100

80

60

40

20

Series 1 Forecast of Series 1 Fitted Values

Forecast -- Decomposition Selected

Forecast
Date Daily Weekly Monthly
Wed, Mar 22 2017 89.42
Thu, Mar 23 2017 89.19
Fri, Mar 24 2017 90.67
Sat, Mar 25 2017 91.39 360.67
Sun, Mar 26 2017 89.41
Mon, Mar 27 2017 89.16
Tue, Mar 28 2017 90.69
Wed, Mar 29 2017 91.40
Thu, Mar 30 2017 89.40
Fri, Mar 31 2017 89.16 899.89
Avg 89.99 360.67 899.89
Max 91.40 360.67 899.89
Min 89.16 360.67 899.89
Summary Comments
The forecast has an average error of 3.17%
The data has a standard deviation of 23.12
The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 96.82%

Audit Trail - Summary Analysis

Audit Trail - Statistics

Accuracy Measures Value Forecast Statistics

Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 3.17% Mean
R-Square 96.82% Standard Deviation

Method Statistics Value

Method Selected Decomposition
Basic Method Exponential Smoothing
Alpha 0.92
Decomposition Type Multiplicative

Components of Decomposition

Original Forecasted Centered CMA Seasonal Cycle

Date Data Data Moving Average Trend Indices Factors
Mon, Dec 12 2016 79.00 79.00 0.99
Tue, Dec 13 2016 77.00 77.00 0.99
Wed, Dec 14 2016 70.00 75.19 74.75 74.75 1.01 1.00
Thu, Dec 15 2016 72.00 76.41 75.38 74.75 1.01 1.01
Fri, Dec 16 2016 81.00 76.72 77.38 75.38 0.99 1.03
Sat, Dec 17 2016 80.00 79.73 80.63 77.38 0.99 1.04
Sun, Dec 18 2016 83.00 82.61 82.13 80.63 1.01 1.02
Mon, Dec 19 2016 85.00 82.36 81.25 82.13 1.01 0.99
Tue, Dec 20 2016 80.00 77.84 78.50 81.25 0.99 0.97
Wed, Dec 21 2016 74.00 73.80 74.63 78.50 0.99 0.95
Thu, Dec 22 2016 67.00 71.29 70.88 74.63 1.01 0.95
Fri, Dec 23 2016 70.00 68.17 67.25 70.88 1.01 0.95
Sat, Dec 24 2016 65.00 66.56 67.13 67.25 0.99 1.00
Sun, Dec 25 2016 60.00 69.10 69.88 67.13 0.99 1.04
Mon, Dec 26 2016 80.00 72.80 72.38 69.88 1.01 1.04
Tue, Dec 27 2016 79.00 76.54 75.50 72.38 1.01 1.04
Wed, Dec 28 2016 76.00 75.60 76.25 75.50 0.99 1.01
Thu, Dec 29 2016 74.00 73.80 74.63 76.25 0.99 0.98
Fri, Dec 30 2016 72.00 74.18 73.75 74.63 1.01 0.99
Sat, Dec 31 2016 74.00 74.13 73.13 73.75 1.01 0.99
Sun, Jan 1 2017 74.00 72.13 72.75 73.13 0.99 0.99
Mon, Jan 2 2017 71.00 71.69 72.50 72.75 0.99 1.00
Tue, Jan 3 2017 72.00 72.67 72.25 72.50 1.01 1.00
Wed, Jan 4 2017 72.00 73.49 72.50 72.25 1.01 1.00
Thu, Jan 5 2017 74.00 72.01 72.63 72.50 0.99 1.00
Fri, Jan 6 2017 73.00 71.45 72.25 72.63 0.99 0.99
Sat, Jan 7 2017 71.00 71.92 71.50 72.25 1.01 0.99
Sun, Jan 8 2017 70.00 71.59 70.63 71.50 1.01 0.99
Mon, Jan 9 2017 70.00 69.28 69.88 70.63 0.99 0.99
Tue, Jan 10 2017 70.00 67.99 68.75 69.88 0.99 0.98
Wed, Jan 11 2017 68.00 67.64 67.25 68.75 1.01 0.98
Thu, Jan 12 2017 64.00 66.53 65.63 67.25 1.01 0.98
Fri, Jan 13 2017 64.00 63.09 63.63 65.63 0.99 0.97
Sat, Jan 14 2017 63.00 61.93 62.63 63.63 0.99 0.98
Sun, Jan 15 2017 59.00 62.61 62.25 62.63 1.01 0.99
Mon, Jan 16 2017 65.00 61.84 61.00 62.25 1.01 0.98
Tue, Jan 17 2017 60.00 59.49 60.00 61.00 0.99 0.98
Wed, Jan 18 2017 57.00 58.10 58.75 60.00 0.99 0.98
Thu, Jan 19 2017 57.00 57.96 57.63 58.75 1.01 0.98
Fri, Jan 20 2017 57.00 59.68 58.88 57.63 1.01 1.02
Sat, Jan 21 2017 59.00 60.98 61.50 58.88 0.99 1.04
Sun, Jan 22 2017 68.00 63.29 64.00 61.50 0.99 1.04
Mon, Jan 23 2017 67.00 66.64 66.25 64.00 1.01 1.04
Tue, Jan 24 2017 67.00 67.79 66.88 66.25 1.01 1.01
Wed, Jan 25 2017 67.00 65.57 66.13 66.88 0.99 0.99
Thu, Jan 26 2017 65.00 65.14 65.88 66.13 0.99 1.00
Fri, Jan 27 2017 64.00 66.76 66.38 65.88 1.01 1.01
Sat, Jan 28 2017 68.00 70.20 69.25 66.38 1.01 1.04
Sun, Jan 29 2017 70.00 73.13 73.75 69.25 0.99 1.06
Mon, Jan 30 2017 85.00 76.64 77.50 73.75 0.99 1.05
Tue, Jan 31 2017 80.00 80.34 79.88 77.50 1.01 1.03
Wed, Feb 1 2017 82.00 80.46 79.38 79.88 1.01 0.99
Thu, Feb 2 2017 75.00 77.22 77.88 79.38 0.99 0.98
Fri, Feb 3 2017 76.00 76.39 77.25 77.88 0.99 0.99
Sat, Feb 4 2017 77.00 77.95 77.50 77.25 1.01 1.00
Sun, Feb 5 2017 80.00 79.32 78.25 77.50 1.01 1.01
Mon, Feb 6 2017 79.00 79.32 80.00 78.25 0.99 1.02
Tue, Feb 7 2017 78.00 81.83 82.75 80.00 0.99 1.03
Wed, Feb 8 2017 89.00 86.38 85.88 82.75 1.01 1.04
Thu, Feb 9 2017 90.00 91.87 90.63 85.88 1.01 1.06
Fri, Feb 10 2017 94.00 96.80 97.63 90.63 0.99 1.08
Sat, Feb 11 2017 101.00 106.06 107.25 97.63 0.99 1.10
Sun, Feb 12 2017 122.00 119.19 118.50 107.25 1.01 1.10
Mon, Feb 13 2017 134.00 130.64 128.88 118.50 1.01 1.09
Tue, Feb 14 2017 140.00 135.59 136.75 128.88 0.99 1.06
Wed, Feb 15 2017 138.00 140.30 141.88 136.75 0.99 1.04
Thu, Feb 16 2017 148.00 144.47 143.63 141.88 1.01 1.01
Fri, Feb 17 2017 149.00 145.47 143.50 143.63 1.01 1.00
Sat, Feb 18 2017 139.00 141.42 142.63 143.50 0.99 0.99
Sun, Feb 19 2017 138.00 138.32 139.88 142.63 0.99 0.98
Mon, Feb 20 2017 141.00 137.68 136.88 139.88 1.01 0.98
Tue, Feb 21 2017 134.00 136.09 134.25 136.88 1.01 0.98
Wed, Feb 22 2017 130.00 129.15 130.25 134.25 0.99 0.97
Thu, Feb 23 2017 126.00 123.98 125.38 130.25 0.99 0.96
Fri, Feb 24 2017 121.00 121.83 121.13 125.38 1.01 0.97
Sat, Feb 25 2017 115.00 116.83 115.25 121.13 1.01 0.95
Sun, Feb 26 2017 115.00 107.09 108.00 115.25 0.99 0.94
Mon, Feb 27 2017 94.00 101.86 103.00 108.00 0.99 0.95
Tue, Feb 28 2017 95.00 95.68 95.13 103.00 1.01 0.92
Wed, Mar 1 2017 101.00 89.59 88.38 95.13 1.01 0.93
Thu, Mar 2 2017 66.00 88.37 89.13 88.38 0.99 1.01
Fri, Mar 3 2017 89.00 89.37 90.38 89.13 0.99 1.01
Sat, Mar 4 2017 106.00 94.55 94.00 90.38 1.01 1.04
Sun, Mar 5 2017 100.00 99.72 98.38 94.00 1.01 1.05
Mon, Mar 6 2017 96.00 96.18 97.00 98.38 0.99 0.99
Tue, Mar 7 2017 94.00 92.46 93.50 97.00 0.99 0.96
Wed, Mar 8 2017 90.00 93.54 93.00 93.50 1.01 0.99
Thu, Mar 9 2017 88.00 96.30 95.00 93.00 1.01 1.02
Fri, Mar 10 2017 104.00 95.93 96.75 95.00 0.99 1.02
Sat, Mar 11 2017 102.00 97.28 98.38 96.75 0.99 1.02
Sun, Mar 12 2017 96.00 98.57 98.00 98.38 1.01 1.00
Mon, Mar 13 2017 95.00 96.94 95.63 98.00 1.01 0.98
Tue, Mar 14 2017 94.00 93.58 94.38 95.63 0.99 0.99
Wed, Mar 15 2017 93.00 92.96 94.00 94.38 0.99 1.00
Thu, Mar 16 2017 95.00 93.80 93.25 94.00 1.01 0.99
Fri, Mar 17 2017 93.00 93.39 92.13 93.25 1.01 0.99
Sat, Mar 18 2017 90.00 90.60 91.38 92.13 0.99 0.99
Sun, Mar 19 2017 88.00 89.87 90.88 91.38 0.99 0.99
Mon, Mar 20 2017 94.00 90.64 90.88 1.01 0.99
Tue, Mar 21 2017 90.00 91.34 90.88 1.01 0.99
Wed, Mar 22 2017 89.42 90.88 0.99 0.99
Thu, Mar 23 2017 89.19 90.88 0.99 0.99
Fri, Mar 24 2017 90.67 90.88 1.01 0.99
Sat, Mar 25 2017 91.39 90.88 1.01 0.99
Sun, Mar 26 2017 89.41 90.88 0.99 0.99
Mon, Mar 27 2017 89.16 90.88 0.99 0.99
Tue, Mar 28 2017 90.69 90.88 1.01 0.99
Wed, Mar 29 2017 91.40 90.88 1.01 0.99
Thu, Mar 30 2017 89.40 90.88 0.99 0.99
Fri, Mar 31 2017 89.16 90.88 0.99 0.99

ForecastX Configuration Parameters

Item Value
Data Range Selected [table.csv]Nov16-Mar17'!$K$1:$K$100
Time scale for data Daily
Periods to forecast 10
Seasonal Length
Replace Outliers Activated No
Replace Outliers Standard Deviations
Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique
Replace Missing Values No
Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit)
Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit)
Remove Leading Zeros Yes
Remove Trailing Zeros No
Use Holdback Evaluation No
Holdback Evaluation Period
Apply Tracking Signal No
Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage)
Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage)
Forecast Method Selected Decomposition

Report Details
Run Date: 3/21/2017 9:19 PM
Author: John Galt Development, Inc.
Note: ForecastX
Value
86.53
23.12