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6 July 2010
• Consumers and companies are still cautious, but things are looking up
for exports
– High indebtedness, an uncertain job situation and very low wage growth have made
consumers save more and be less inclined to consume. The labour market is improving, and
combined with low interest rates and increasing housing prices, the pressure on the consumers
has eased a bit. However, the fiscal-policy tightening measures are still preponderant.
– We therefore
f expect private consumption to grow at a moderate rate.
– Corporate investment has declined substantially, and the investment ratio is therefore very
low. We assess that investment activity will soon pick up, but growth will presumably be
moderate.
– Given the recovery of the global economy and the currency, which is still weak, things are
looking up for exports.
5,0
4,5
Number of employed (m
Unemployment in %
3,5
3,0
25
2,5
N
2,0
1,5
1,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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