TUGAS ANALISIS DATA KATEGORI

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION TO CATEGORICAL DATA ANALYSIS

Oleh :

RAHMI AMALINA (140610140003)

SEPFIRA REZTIKA (140610140011)
NILA ELIYANTI (140610140015)
NABILA (140610140049)
SITI NOVIYANTI (140610140069)

KELAS A

DEPARTEMEN STATISTIKA
FAKULTAS MATEMATIKA DAN ILMU PENGETAHUAN ALAM
UNIVERSITAS PADJADJARAN
JATINANGOR
2017
1. In the following examples, identify the response variable and the explanatory variables.
a. Variabel Respon : Attitude toward gun control (favor, oppose),
Variabel Explanatory : ,Gender (female, male),Mothers education (high school, college)
b. Variabel Respon : Heart disease (yes, no),
Variabel Explanatory : Blood pressure, Cholesterol level.
c. Variabel Respon : Vote for president (Democrat, Republican, Other)
Variabel Explanatory : Annual income, Race (white, nonwhite), Religion (Catholic,
Jewish, Protestant
d. Variabel Respon : Marital status (married, single, divorced, widowed)
Variabel Explanatory : Quality of life (excellent, good, fair, poor).

2. Which scale of measurement is most appropriate for the following variablesnominal, or

ordinal?
a. Political party affiliation (Democrat, Republican, unaffiliated): Nominal (klasifikasi tidak
menunjukkan rank atau peringkat)
b. Highest degree obtained (none, high school, bachelors, masters, doctorate): Ordinal
(klasifikasi menunjukkan rank atau peringkat)
c. Patient condition (good, fair, serious, critical): Ordinal (klasifikasi menunjukkan rank
atau peringkat)
d. Hospital location (London, Boston, Madison, Rochester, Toronto): Nominal (klasifikasi
tidak menunjukkan rank atau peringkat)
e. Favorite beverage (beer, juice, milk, soft drink, wine, other): Nominal (klasifikasi tidak
menunjukkan rank atau peringkat)
f. How often feel depressed (never, occasionally, often, always): Ordinal (klasifikasi
menunjukkan rank atau peringkat)

3. Each of 100 multiple-choice questions on an exam has four possible answers but one correct
response. For each question, a student randomly selects one response as the answer.
a. Specify the distribution of the students number of correct answers on the exam.
Distribusi Binomial, karena kejadian memilih jawaban ada dua kategori (corret or
uncorrect) dari beberapa soal dengan n = 100 dan p = = 0,25.
b. Based on the mean and standard deviation of that distribution, would it be surprising if
the student made at least 50 correct responses? Explain your reasoning.
Mean= n x p = 100 x 0,25 = 25 and
standard deviation = np(1 p)=4,33
4. A coin is flipped twice. Let Y = number of heads obtained, when the probability of a head for
a flip equals .
a. Assuming = 0.50, specify the probabilities for the possible values for Y and find the
distributions mean and standard deviation.
Jawaban :
Y~B(n,)
n=2
= 0.5
P(Y=0) = (1-0.5)2
P(Y=0) = 0.25
P(Y=1) = 2*0.5*(1-0.5)
P(Y=1) = 0.5

P(Y=2) = (0.5)2
P(Y=2) = 0.25

1

Rata-rata dari Y adalah n = 2*0.5 = 1 dan Standar deviasi n

b. Find the binomial probabilities for Y when equals

Jawaban :
=0.60 ; n = 2 ; P(Y=y) = y (1- )n-y
Y={AA} P(Y=0) = 0,600(0,40)2-0 = 0,16
Y={AG,GA} P(Y=1) = 0,601(0,40)2-1 = 0,24 x 2 = 0,48
Y={GG} P(Y=2) = 0,602(0,40)2-2 = 0,36
(ii) 0.40 ; n = 2 ; P(Y=y) = y (1- )n-y
Y={AA} P(Y=0) = 0,400(0,60)2-0 = 0,36
Y={AG,GA} P(Y=1) = 0,401(0,60)2-1 = 0,24 x 2 = 0,48
Y={GG} P(Y=2) = 0,402(0,60)2-2 = 0,16
c. Suppose you observe y = 1 and do not know . Calculate and sketch the likelihood
function.
Jawaban :
Fungsi Likelihood
l=( | y=1 )
l=2 (1 )

Dimana 0 1 , saat membuat plot dari fungsi likelihood maka didapat =0.5
 d. Using the plotted likelihood function from (c), show that the ML estimate of equals
0.50.
Jawaban :
Karena penaksir maksimum likelihood memaksimalkan fungsi likelihood, maka dari

bagian c dapat diketahui bahwa ^ ML =0.5

5. Refer to the previous exercise. Suppose y = 0 in 2 flips. Find the ML estimate of . Does this
estimate seem reasonable? Why? [The Bayesian estimator is an alternative one that
combines the sample data with your prior beliefs about the parameter value. It provides a
nonzero estimate of , equaling (y +1)/(n + 2) when your prior belief is that is equally
likely to be anywhere
Jawaban :
2
Jika y = 0, maka fungsi likehood akan menjadi l ( | y =0 )=(1 ) . ^ =0

memaksimumkan fungsi likelihood tersebut. Jadi memungkinkan untuk mendapatkan kepala

saat pelemparan koin.

6. Genotypes AA, Aa, and aa occur with probabilities (1, 2, 3). For n = 3 independent
observations, the observed frequencies are (n1, n2, n3).
a. Explain how you can determine n3 from knowing n1 and n2. Thus, the multinomial
distribution of (n1, n2, n3) is actually two-dimensional.
Jawaban:
Diketahui n=3,
maka untuk mendapatkan n3:
n3 = 3 n1 n2
b. Show the set of all possible observations, (n1, n2, n3) with n = 3.
Jawaban :
Observasi yang akan muncul adalah (3, 0, 0), (2, 1, 0), (2, 0, 1), (1, 2, 0), (1, 1, 1), (1, 0,
2), (0, 3, 0), (0, 2, 1), (0, 1, 2), (0, 0, 3)

c. Suppose (1, 2, 3) = (0.25, 0.50, 0.25). Find the multinomial probability that (n1, n2,
n3)(1,2,0).
Jawaban:
Distribusi Multinomial :
n!
P (n1, n2, n3) = n1 n2 n3
(n 1! n 2! n 3 !) 1 2 3

3!
= (1! 2! 0 !) x (0.25)1 x (0.50)2 x (0.50)0

= 3 (0.25) (0.25)
 = 0.1875
The multinomial probability that (n1, n2, n3)(1,2,0) is 0.1875

d. Refer to (c). What probability distribution does n1 alone have? Specify the values of the
sample size index and parameter for that distribution.
Jawaban:
Distribusi peluang n1 adalah binomial probability distribution dengan n=3, dan parameter
= 0.25.

7. In his autobiography A Sort of Life, British author Graham Greene described a period of
severe mental depression during which he played Russian Roulette. This game consists of
putting a bullet in one of the six chambers of a pistol,spinning the chambers to select one at
random, and then firing the pistol once at ones head.
a. Greene played this game six times, and was lucky that none of them resulted in a bullet
firing. Find the probability of this outcome.
Jawaban :
Diketahui :
n=6
peluru tembak= y = 0
gagal = 6
= 1/6

Peluang Binomial pada peluru tembak

P (y = 0) = [(n!/ y! (n y)!] y(1- )n-y

= [(6!/ 0! (6 0)!] (1/6)0(1- 1/6)6 - 0
= (5/6)6

= 0.3349

Jadi peluang tidak terjadi peluru tembak sebesar 0.3349

b. Suppose one kept playing this game until the bullet fires. Let Y denote the number of the
game on which the bullet fires. Argue that the probability of the outcome y equals
(5/6)y1(1/6), for y = 1, 2, 3, . . . . (This is called the geometric distribution.)
Jawaban :
Y = y ketika terdapat (y 1) keberhasilan, lalu terjadi kegagalan rangkaian peluang dari
kejadian yang saling independen adalah produk dari peluang kejadian yang saling lepas.
8. When the 2000 General Social Survey asked subjects whether they would be willing to
accept cuts in their standard of living to protect the environment, 344 of 1170 subjects said
yes.
a. Estimate the population proportion who would say yes.
Jawaban :
344
p= =0.294
1170

Proporsi populasi yang akan menjawab yes sebesar 0.294.

b. Conduct a significance test to determine whether a majority or minority of the population
would say yes. Report and interpret the P-value.
Jawaban :
Diketahui :
n yang menjawab yes : 1170
^ : 0.294

Hipotesis :
H0 : 0 = 0.5
H1 : 0 0.5
= 0.01
Statistik Uji :
^ 0
Z=
0 (1 0 )/n
0.2940.5

0.5(10.5)/1170
14.093

P value = 2 X P(Z< -14.093) 0

H 0 ditolak apabila nilai p value lebih kecil dari alpha. Dilihat dari hasil diatas, H0

ditolak, artinya bahwa proporsi populasi yang mengatakan yes tidak sama dengan 0.05
c. Construct and interpret a 99% confidence interval for the population proportion who
would say yes.
Jawaban :

Selang kepercayaan, dengan nilai Z 0.99

 0 Z 0.99 0( 1 0) /n

0Z 0.99
0 ( 1 0 )
n
^ 0 + Z 0.99 0 (1 0 )/n

0.294 2.326347874
0.294 ( 10.294 )
1170

0.294 0.03098544538

0.2630145546 ^ 0.3249854454

Dengan tingkat kepercayaan 99% , bahwa taksiran proporsi populasi yang mengatakan

yes berada dalam interval 0.2630145546 ^ 0.3249854454

9. A sample of women suffering from excessive menstrual bleeding have been taking an
analgesic designed to diminish the effects.Anewanalgesic is claimed to provide greater relief.
After trying the new analgesic, 40 women reported greater relief with the standard analgesic,
and 60 reported greater relief with the new one
a. Test the hypothesis that the probability of greater relief with the standard analgesic is the
same as the probability of greater relief with the new analgesic. Report and interpret the
P-value for the two-sided alternative. (Hint:Express the hypotheses in terms of a single
parameter. A test to compare matched-pairs responses in terms of which is better is called
a sign test.)
Jawaban :
Diketahui :
0 = 0.5
^ = 0.6
n=100
H0 : 0 = 0.5
H1 : 0 0.5

^ 0
Z=
0 (1 0 )/n
0.60.5

0.5(10.5)/100
 2
P value = 2 X P(Z< 2) 0.0455
H 0 ditolak apabila nilai p value lebih kecil dari alpha. Dilihat dari hasil diatas, H0

ditolak, artinya bahwa proporsi populasi yang mengatakan yes tidak sama dengan 0.05

b. Construct and interpret a 95% confidence interval for the probability of greater relief with
the new analgesic.
Jawaban :

Selang kepercayaan, dengan nilai Z 0.95

0 Z 0.95 0( 1 0) /n

0Z 0.95
0 ( 1 0 )
n
^ 0 + Z 0.95 0 (1 0 )/n

0.6 1.96
00.6 ( 10.6 )
100

0.6 0.09602

0.50398 ^ 0.69602

Dengan tingkat kepercayaan 95% , dapat dikatakan bahwa taksiran proporsi populasi

berada dalam interval 0.50398 ^ 0.69602

10. Refer to the previous exercise. The researchers wanted a sufficiently large sample to be able
to estimate the probability of preferring the new analgesic to within 0.08, with confidence
0.95. If the true probability is 0.75, how large a sample is needed to achieve this accuracy?
(Hint: For how large an n does a 95% confidence interval have margin of error equal to about
0.08?)
Jawaban :
Margin error untuk proporsi = (koefisien konfiden)*(standar error dari p)
margin error yang dibutuhkan yaitu 0.08
Koefisien konfiden untuk nilai z pada tingkat signifikansi sebesar 95% adalah 1.96. maka
0.08=1.96

0.75(10.75)
n
0.75(10.75)
=1.665972511 103
n
 n=112.5
Maka jumlah sampel yang dibutuhkan untuk mendapat margin error sebesar 0.08 adalah
sebanyak 112.5 sampel atau jika dibulatkan menjadi 113 sampel.

11. When a recent General Social Survey asked 1158 American adults, Do you believe in
Heaven?, the proportion who answered yes was 0.86. Treating this as a random sample,
conduct statistical inference about the true proportion of American adults believing in
heaven. Summarize your analysis and interpret the results in a short report of about 200
words.
Jawaban :
n = 1158
0 = 0,86

Penaksir titik dari adalah sebagai berikut.

0 Z 0.95 0( 1 0) /n

0Z 0.95
0 ( 1 0 )
n
^ 0 + Z 0.95 0 (1 0 )/n

0.86 1.96
0.86 ( 10.86 )
1158

0,86 0,02

0,84 ^ 0,88

Sehingga didapat bahwa dengan kepercayaan 95%, ^ terletak antara 0,84 dan 0,88.

12. To collect data in an introductory statistics course, recently I gave the students a
questionnaire. One question asked whether the student was a vegetarian. Of 25 students, 0
answered yes. They were not a random sample, but let us use these data to illustrate
inference for a proportion. (You may wish to refer to Section 1.4.1 on methods of inference).
Let denote the population proportion who would say yes. Consider H 0: = 0.5 and Ha:
0.50.
a. What happens when you try to conduct the Wald test, for which

p ( 1 p )
z=( p 0) /[ ] uses the estimated standard error?
n
Jawaban:
n = 25
y=0
^ 0
P = =0
25

Uji wald :

SE= ^ ^ )/n
P (1 P

SE= 0(10)/25

SE=0

^
P 0
Z=
^P(1 P)/n
^

^
P 0
Z=
SE

00.5
Z=
0

Z =

b. find the 95% Wald confidence interval (1.3) for . Is it believeable? (When the
observation falls at the boundary of the sample space, often Wald methods do not provide
sensible answers).
Jawaban :

^
P Z 0.95 0 (1 0 )/n

^
P Z 0.95 S E

0 1.96 (0)
 0 ^ 0

Hasil dari selang kepercayaan (0,0) tidak dapat dipercaya karena kita mengharapkan
bahwa beberapa murid adalah vegetarian meskipun proporsinya sangat kecil.
0 ( 1 0 )
c. Conduct the score test, for which z=( p 0)/[ ] uses the null standard
n

error. Report the P-value.

Jawaban :

^
P 0
Z=
^P(1 P)/n
^

00.5
Z=
0.5(10.5)/25
0.5
Z=
0.1

Z =5

Didapat nilai p-value lebih kecil dari 0.0001

Untuk mengetahui besarnya nilai p-value yang didapat, maka rumusnya sebagai berikut:

= 2 {[n!/y!(n-y)!] 0y 0n-y + [n!/ n!0!] 0n 00}

= 2 {[25!/0! (25)!] 0.50 0.525 + [25!/ 25!0!] 0.525 0.50}
= 2 {[ 1] 0.525 + [ 1] 0.525 } = 2 (0.00000003 + 0.00000003)
= 0.0000001
Sehingga terbukti bahwa nilai p-value = 0.0000001 < 0.0001.
d. Verify that 95% score confidence interval (i.e., the set of 0 for which |z| <1.96 in

the score test) equals (0.0, 0.133). (Hint: what do the z test statistic and P-value equal
when you test H0: = 0.133 against Ha: 0.133.
Jawaban ;
H0: = 0.133
Ha: 0.133

^
P 0
Z=
^P(1 P)/n
^
 00.133
Z=
0.133(10.133)/25
0.133
Z=
0.0679

Z =1.96

Jadi, 0 adalah 0.133 yang memiliki nilai p-value sebesar 0.05

13. Refer to the previous exercise, with y = 0 in n = 25 trials.

a. Showthat _0, the maximized likelihood underH0, equals (1 0)25, which is (0.50)25 for
H0: = 0.50.
Jawaban :
0( 0) =(1- 0 )n
0( 0)= (1- 0.5)25
0( 0)= (0.5)25
sehingga (0.5)25 adalah nilai maksimum likelihood dibawah Ho.
b. Show that _1, the maximum of the likelihood function over all possible values, equals
1.0. (Hint: This is the value at the ML estimate value of 0.0.)
Jawaban:
1( ) =(1- )n
1( )= (1- )25
untuk mendapatkan maksimum likelihood dimana 1( ) =(1- )n =(1- )25= 1
maka nilai haruslah = 0
pembuktian :
saat = 0 1( ) =(1- )n = (1- 0 )25 = 1
jadi maksimum likelihood akan terjadi saat nilai = 0
c. For H0: = 0.50, show that the likelihood-ratio test statistic,2 log(_0/_1), equals 34.7.
Report the P-value
Jawaban:
0( 0)=[n! / y!(n-y)!] 0y(1- 0)n-y
=[25!/0!(25)!] 0.50(1- 0.5)25
=(1- 0.5 )25
= (0.5)25
1() =[n!/y!(n-y)!] y(1- )n-y
=[25!/0!(25)!] 0(1- )25
=(1-)25

Jadi maksimum likelihood akan terjadi pada saat nilai = 0

 1() = (1-)25 = (1 - 0)25 = 1

Likelihood rasio test

-2 log (0 / 1 ) = -2 log [(0.5)25 / (1)] = 34.7

Didapat nilai p-value lebih kecil dari 0.0001

Untuk mengetahui besarnya nilai p-value yang didapat, maka rumusnya sebagai berikut:

= 2 {[n!/y!(n-y)!] 0y 0n-y + [n!/ n!0!] 0n 00}

= 2 {[25!/0! (25)!] 0.50 0.525 + [25!/ 25!0!] 0.525 0.50}
= 2 {[ 1] 0.525 + [ 1] 0.525 } = 2 (0.00000003 + 0.00000003) = 0.0000001

d. The 95% likelihood-ratio confidence interval for is (0.000, 0.074).Verify that 0.074 is
the correct upper bound by showing that the likelihood-ratio test of H0: = 0.074 against
Ha: _= 0.074 has chi-squared test statistic equal to 3.84 and P-value = 0.05.
Jawaban :
0( 0) =[n! / y!(n-y)!] 0y(1- 0)n-y
=[25!/0!(25)!] 0.0740(1- 0.074)25
= (0.926)25
1() =[n!/y!(n-y)!] y(1- )n-y
=[25!/0!(25)!] 0(1- )25
=(1-)25

1() = (1-)25 = (1 - 0)25 = 1

Jadi maksimum likelihood akan terjadi pada saat nilai = 0

Bedasarkan pada Likelihood ratio test: -2 log (0 / 1 ) = -2 log [(0.926)25 / (1)] = 3.84
Didapat nilai p value lebih kecil dari 0.05 dengan menggunakan tabel Chi-square

Untuk mengetahui besarnya nilai p-value yang didapat, maka rumusnya sebagai berikut:

= 2 {[n!/y!(n-y)!] 0y 0n-y + [n!/ n!0!] 0n 00}

= 2 {[25!/0! (25)!] 0.0740 0.07425 + [25!/ 25!0!] 0.07425 0.0740}
= 2 {[ 1] 0.07425 + [ 1] 0.07425 } = < 0.0000001
14. Sections 1.4.4 and 1.4.5 found binomial P-values for a clinical trial with y = 9 successes in
10 trials. Suppose instead y = 8. Using the binomial distribution shown in Table 1.2:
a. Find the P-value for (i) Ha: > 0.50, (ii) Ha: < 0.50.
Jawaban :
(i) P-value untuk H0: > 0.5 = P(8) + P(9) + P (10) = 0.055
 8

(ii) P-value untuk H0: < 0.5 = P(i)=1P ( 9 ) P ( 10 )=0.989

i=0

b. Find the mid P-value for (i) Ha: > 0.50, (ii) Ha: < 0.50.
Jawaban :
(i) Nilai tengah P-value untuk H0: > 0.5 = P(8)/2 + P(9) + P (10) = 0.033
(ii) Nilai tengah P-value untuk < 0.5=

7
P (8)
P(i)=1 2
=1P ( 9 ) P ( 10 ) + P(8) /2=0.967
i=0

c. Why is the sum of the one-sided P-values greater than 1.0 for the ordinary P-value but
equal to 1.0 for the mid P-value?
Jawaban :
Kita dapat melihat untuk nilai p-value yang biasa satu sisi p-value=

10 10

P(i)+ P ( 8 )=1+ P ( 8 ) >1 . Tapi untuk nilai tengah p-value adalah P(i)=1
i=0 i=0

15. If Y is a variate and c is a positive constant, then the standard deviation of the distribution of
cY equals c(Y ). Suppose Y is a binomial variate, and let p = Y/n.
a. Based on the binomial standard deviation for Y , show that (p) =[(1 )/n].
Jawaban :
(p) sama dengan binomial standar deviasi np (1 - ) dibagi dengan ukuran sampel n
Var[X] = np(1-p)
Berikut adalah pembuktian
2 2 2 nP
Var[X] = n P n P + np ( 2
2
= np - np
= np(1-p)
b. Explain why it is easier to estimate precisely when it is near 0 or 1 than when it is near
0.50.
Jawaban :
(p) mengambil nilai maksimum pada = 0,50 dan minimum pada = 0 dan 1.
Misalnya = 1, maka setiap pengamatan harus sukses, dan proporsi sampel p sama
dengan yakni dengan probabilitas 1. Berbeda jika = 0,50 maka setiap pengamatan
memiliki dua kemungkinan, yaitu bisa sukses atau gagal dan proporsi sampel p dengan
berbeda.
16. Using calculus, it is easier to derive the maximum of the log of the likelihood function, L =
log _, than the likelihood function _ itself. Both functions have maximum at the same value,
so it is sufficient to do either.
a. Calculate the log likelihood function L() for the binomial distribution (1.1).
Jawaban:
n!
L() = log [ y !(n y ) ! ] + y log( + (n-y) log(1- )

b. One can usually determine the point at which the maximum of a log likelihood L occurs
by solving the likelihood equation. This is the equation resulting from differentiating L
with respect to the parameter, and setting the derivative equal to zero. Find the likelihood
equation for the binomial distribution, and solve it to show that the ML estimate equals p
= y/n.
Jawaban:
y (1-p) = (n-y) p
y yp = (np yp)
y + yp = np + yp
yp = np + yp y
p = (np + yp y)/ y
p = np/y + p
np = y
p = y/n
p = (y/n) terbukti.

17. Suppose a researcher routinely conducts significance tests by rejecting H0 if the P-value
satisfies P 0.05. Suppose a test using a test statistic T and righttail probability for the P-
value has null distribution P(T = 0) = 0.30, P(T =3) = 0.62, and P(T = 9) = 0.08.
a. Show that with the usual P-value, the actual probability of type I error is 0 rather than
0.05.
Jawaban :
Saat T=0, p-value = P(T0) = 0.3+0.62+0.08 = 1. Saat T = 3, p-value =
P(T3)=0.62+0.08 = 0.7. saat T=9, p-value = P(T9) = 0.08. karena nilai p-value selalu
lebih besar dari 0.05, maka kita tidak akan pernah menolak Ho. Kita tidak akan memiliki
kekeliruan tipe 1, karena peluang kekeliruan tipe 1 adalah 0.
b. Show that with the mid P-value, the actual probability of type I error equals 0.08.
Jawaban :
Saat T=0, nilai tengah p-value = 0.3/2+0.62+0.08 = 0.85. Saat T = 3, nilai tengah p-value
= 0.62/2+0.08 = 0.39. saat T=9, nilai tengah p-value =0.08/2 = 0.04. sehingga kita akan
 menolah Ho saat T=9 karena nilai tengah p-value = 0.04<0.05. maka peluang kekeliruan
tipe 1 adalah peluang T=9 yaitu 0.08.
c. Repeat (a) and (b) using P(T = 0) = 0.30, P(T = 3) = 0.66, and P(T =9) = 0.04. Note that
the test with mid P-value can be conservative [having actual P(type I error) below the
desired value] or liberal [having actual P(type I error) above the desired value]. The
test with the ordinary P-value cannot be liberal.
Jawaban :
Saat T=0, p-value = P(T0) = 0.3+0.66+0.04 = 1 dan nilai tengah p-value = 0.3/2 + 0.66
+ 0.04 = 0.85. Saat T = 3, p-value = P(T3)=0.66+0.04 = 0.7 dan nilai tengah p-value =
0.66/2 + 0.04 = 0.37 . saat T=9, p-value = P(T9) = 0.04 dan nilai tengah p-value =
0.04/2 = 0.02. dengan nilai p-value biasa, kita menolak Ho saat T=9 karena pada kasus
ini p-value = 0.04 0.05. maka peluang kekeliruan tipe 1 adalah peluang T=9 yaitu
sebesar 0.04. dengan nilai tengah p-value, kita menolak Ho saat T=9 karena pada kasus
nilai tengah p-value = 0.02 0.05. sehingga peluang kekeliruan tipe 1 adalah peluang
bahwa T=9 yaitu sebesar 0.04.

18. For a given sample proportion p, show that a value 0 for which the test statistic z = (p 0)/
[0(1 0)/n] takes some fixed value z0 (such as 1.96) is a solution to the equation (1 +
z20/n)20+ (2p z20/n)0 + p2 = 0. Hence, using the formula x = [b (b2 4ac)]/2a for
solving the quadratic equation ax2 + bx + c = 0, obtain the limits for the 95% confidence
interval in Section 1.3.4 for the probability of success when a clinical trial has nine successes
in 10 trials.
Jawaban:
Diketahui:
p 0
z 0=
0 (1 0)/n
Dimana,
2 ( p 0)2
z 0=
0 (1 0)/n

2 z 20 0 z 20 20
2
p 2 p 0 + = 0
n n
 2 2

( ) (
1+
z0 2
n
z
)
0 + 2 p 0 0 + p2=0
n

Maka,

(
2
z2 z2 z2

0=
2 p+ 0
n n )
2 p+ 0 4 p2 1+ 0
n ( )
2
z 20
( )
2 1+
n

z 20

2
p(1 p) z 0
p+ z 0 +
2n n 4n
0= 2
z
1+ 0
n

Dengan derajat kepercayaan 95% maka interval kepercayaan 0,5959 ^ 0,9821 .