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Selected Key Note papers from MDCMS 1 1st International Conference on Modern Design,
Construction and Maintenance of Structures - Hanoi, Vietnam, December 2007
Abstract: The next-generation tools and procedures for performance-based earthquake engineering that are
being developed in the United States represent a radical departure from traditional seismic design practice and
performance assessment. Performance will be measured in terms of direct economic loss, indirect economic
loss and casualties rather than by building component deformations and accelerations. Uncertainty and ran-
domness will be captured in every step of the performance assessment process. The paper summarizes the
types of performance assessment made possible by the next-generation tools and procedures and describes
each step in the assessment process. Fragility functions, damage states and consequence functions, which are
key elements in the next generation procedures, are introduced.
49
EJSE Special Issue:
Selected Key Note papers from MDCMS 1 1st International Conference on Modern Design,
Construction and Maintenance of Structures - Hanoi, Vietnam, December 2007
of performance assessment that can be performed ard: a user-specified intensity of earthquake shak-
using the draft Guidelines and identifies the basic ing, a user-specified scenario of earthquake magni-
procedure for each. Section 3 describes the five tude and site-to-source distance, and a time-based
steps for seismic performance assessment that are representation considering all possible earthquakes.
identified in Fig 1. Concluding remarks are pre- The calculation of the probability that the loss
sented in Section 4 followed by a list of references. exceeds l for earthquake shaking of intensity e in-
The 35% draft Guidelines and supplemental infor- volves a number of steps that are illustrated in Fig.
mation, including a beta version of a loss calcula- 1, are summarized below and are described in detail
tor, PACT, can be downloaded from in Chapters 4, 5 and 6 of the Guidelines. In brief,
http://www.atcouncil.org/atc-58.shtml. the PEER framework involves a) the calculation of
building response, including both structural and
2 PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT nonstructural components for a given value of e, b)
the assessment of damage to components in the
2.1 Probabilistic framework building for the calculated building response, and c)
The probabilistic framework that serves as the the transformation of the building damage state into
technical basis for the procedures described in the loss.
Guidelines is based on a methodology developed Intensity-based and scenario-based loss compu-
by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research tations are performed using Eq. (1a). Eq. (1b) is
(PEER) Center [3]. The framework enables the cal- used for time-based assessments and the integration
culation of the probability of loss, L, exceeding a is performed over a range of mean annual fre-
value, l, using either: quency of exceedance, though, as described later,
the integration is replaced by a discrete summation
over intervals of earthquake intensity. (Scenario-
P ( L > l ) = P ( L > l | E = e) (1a) based assessments could be performed using Eq. (1a)
(1b) but in this instance would represent the dis-
P(L > l) = P ( L > l E = e) d (1b) tribution of earthquake intensity conditional on (1b)
a
user-selected combination of earthquake magnitude
and site-to-source distance.) More information on
where E is an earthquake intensity variable (e.g., each type of assessment follows.
spectral acceleration at the first mode period), e is a
value of the earthquake intensity (e.g., 0.37g),
P( L > l | E = e) is the probability of loss exceeding l 2.2 Intensity-based assessments
for an earthquake intensity of e, (e) is the mean An intensity-based performance assessment pro-
annual frequency of exceeding e, and the integra- vides a distribution of the probable loss, given that
tion is performed over a range of . Loss can be the building experiences a specific intensity of
computed for each performance measure using one shaking. In the Guidelines, ground shaking inten-
or more of three characterizations of seismic haz- sity is represented by a 5% damped, elastic accel-
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
P(TRC trc)
0.6
0.5
0.4 I1
0.3 I2
I3
0.2
I4
0.1
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Total repair cost (trc), Million dollars
Fig. 2. Example Cumulative Probability Distributions for Loss Exceeding a Specified
Value for a Hypothetical Building at Four Ground Motion Intensities [1]
50
EJSE Special Issue:
Selected Key Note papers from MDCMS 1 1st International Conference on Modern Design,
Construction and Maintenance of Structures - Hanoi, Vietnam, December 2007
eration response spectrum. Intensity could also in- used to answer the following types of questions: 1)
clude representation of permanent ground dis- What is the probability of more than ten casualties
placements produced by fault rupture, land slide, from an M 6 earthquake on the fault ten kilometers
liquefaction, and compaction/settlement. This type from the building site? and 2) What is the probabil-
of assessment could be used to answers questions ity of repair costs exceeding $5 M if my building is
like: 1) What is the probability of loss in a given subjected to a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco
range, if the building experiences a ground motion earthquake?
of a specific intensity?, and 2) What is the prob- Scenario assessments may be useful for decision
ability of direct economic loss greater than $1 M, if makers with buildings located close to one or more
the building experiences a ground motion repre- known active faults. For scenario-based assess-
sented by a smoothed spectrum with a peak ground ments, the earthquake intensity variable, E, is a
acceleration of 0.5 g? random variable that is described by a probability
For intensity based assessments, the value of the distribution (say ). Loss can be computed using ei-
earthquake intensity variable, e, is deterministic: e ther of the equations in (1), depending on how the
takes on a single value of spectral acceleration. Fig. uncertainty in the earthquake shaking intensity is
2 presents results of four sample intensity-based as- addressed. The product of a scenario-based assess-
sessments. Results are presented as cumulative ment is a single loss curve, such as one of the
probability distributions for direct economic loss in curves in Fig. 2.
a hypothetical building for four independent inten-
sity levels, I1 through I4, where intensity I2 is
greater than intensity I1, etc. The figure plots the 2.4 Time-based assessments
probability that the total repair cost exceeds a
specified value of total repair cost (trc) versus trc. A time-based assessment is an estimate of the prob-
As a sample interpretation, for shaking intensity I4, able earthquake loss, considering all potential
there is a 50% probability that the total repair cost earthquakes that may occur in a given time period,
will exceed $1.8 M and a 90% probability that the and the mean probability of occurrence of each. A
total repair cost will exceed $0.9 M. time-based assessment could be used to answer the
following types of questions: 1) What is the mean
annual frequency of earthquake-induced direct eco-
2.3 Scenario-based assessments nomic loss resulting from damage to my building
and contents exceeding $300,000?, 2) What is the
A scenario-based performance assessment is simi- mean frequency of losing the use of my building for
lar in many regards to an intensity-based assess- more than 30 days from an earthquake over its
ment and enables an estimate of loss, given that a fifty-year life? and 3) What is my average expected
building experiences a specific earthquake, defined loss (in direct dollars, downtime, lives) each year I
as a combination of earthquake magnitude and dis- own the building?
tance of the site from the fault on which the earth- For a time-based assessment, the earthquake-
quake occurs. This type of assessment could be intensity variable is described by a seismic hazard
0.07
Annual rate of exceeding trc
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Total repair cost (trc), Million dollars
Fig. 3. Distribution of Mean Annual Total Repair Cost [1]
51
EJSE Special Issue:
Selected Key Note papers from MDCMS 1 1st International Conference on Modern Design,
Construction and Maintenance of Structures - Hanoi, Vietnam, December 2007
curve, which plots the relationship between earth- be present in the building, b) the locations and
quake intensity, e, and the mean annual frequency value of all furnishings, c) the age and condition of
of exceedance of e, . Loss curves are developed for the mechanical equipment, d) the subsurface condi-
intensities of earthquake shaking that span the in- tions, and e) the strength, stiffness, ductility and
tensity range of interest and which are then inte- damping of the framing system. However, it is pos-
grated (summed) over the hazard curve to construct sible to make reasonable estimates of the likely
an annualized loss curve of the type shown in Fig. value of the key characteristics that affect perform-
3. The mean annual total loss is computed by inte- ance together with estimates of their possible varia-
grating the area under the loss curve, which is tions.
equal to approximately $37,900 in this example. Information on the site location and the site con-
The accuracy of the annualized loss curve is a func- ditions are required to establish the seismic hazard
tion of the number of intervals of earthquake inten- for scenario- and time-based assessments and will
sity used in the computation. likely be used to develop a response spectrum for
an intensity-based assessment. Information on the
site conditions is also important for the selection of
3 METHODOLOGY FOR PERFORMANCE ground motions for response-history analysis. Con-
ASSESSMENT struction information, either as proposed, as exist-
ing, or a combination of both (for retrofit computa-
3.1 Introduction
tions), is required to establish the seismic and
The five basic steps in a seismic performance as- gravity load-resisting systems and enable the de-
sessment conducted using the Guidelines are iden- velopment of a numerical model of the building that
tified in Fig. 1 and are described in this section. is suitable for analysis and the selection of appro-
Step 1 requires the user to define the building in priate structural-component fragility curves to com-
sufficient detail to compute losses. Step 2 involves pute damage and losses once the demands are
the appropriate characterization of the seismic haz- known. Occupancy information is required so that
ard, which depends on the type of assessment. Step the user can a) identify likely inventories and quan-
3 involves analysis of the building, described in tities of nonstructural components and contents in
Step 1, subjected to the hazard of Step 2, to predict the building; b) assign fragility curves to the com-
its response, that is, to compute the accelerations, ponents and contents, to enable calculations of
forces, displacements and deformations that serve damage and associated losses; and c) to evaluate
as demands on the buildings components and con- casualty and downtime losses associated with oc-
tents. Damage to structural and nonstructural com- cupants and the building function.
ponents is assessed in Step 4 using the demands
computed in Step 3 and fragility functions that are
based on the user-specified definition of the build- 3.3 Characterization of Earthquake Shaking, Step
ings components (Step 1). Step 5 involves the 2
computation of loss using consequence functions A primary input into the performance assessment
(and a hazard curve for time-based assessment). process is the definition of the earthquake effects
that cause building damage and loss. In the most
general case, earthquake hazards can include
3.2 Building Definition, Step 1
ground shaking, ground fault rupture, liquefaction,
The first step involves the definition of the build- lateral spreading and land sliding. Each of these can
ings location, configuration and characteristics have different levels of severity, or intensity. Gen-
pertinent to response in earthquakes, including a) erally, as the intensity of these hazards increases, so
site location: identifying the seismic hazard and also does the potential for damage and loss. In the
ground motion intensity; b) site conditions: identi- Guidelines, only the effects of earthquake shaking
fying how local soil conditions will affect the are considered for loss computations although the
earthquake ground motion intensities and charac- framework could be easily modified to accommo-
teristics; c) construction: providing information on date other earthquake hazards.
the structural framing (seismic and gravity) and There are two ways to represent seismic hazard
nonstructural components and systems; and d) oc- for intensity, scenario and time-based assessments,
cupancy: providing information on the tenants and namely, 1) a response spectrum (spectra) for linear
contents in the building. static analysis, and 2) families of earthquake histo-
It is not possible to define these four characteris- ries for nonlinear response-history analysis. One
tics precisely. For example, it is not possible to de- acceptable set of procedures for characterizing
fine exactly the following at the time of a future seismic hazard (and selecting and scaling earth-
earthquake: a) the total number of persons that will quake ground motions to represent the hazard for
52
EJSE Special Issue:
Selected Key Note papers from MDCMS 1 1st International Conference on Modern Design,
Construction and Maintenance of Structures - Hanoi, Vietnam, December 2007
53
EJSE Special Issue:
Selected Key Note papers from MDCMS 1 1st International Conference on Modern Design,
Construction and Maintenance of Structures - Hanoi, Vietnam, December 2007
sider damage to a steel beam measured using the dispersion is associated solely with the onset of the
amplitude of flange local buckling: the amplitude associated damage as a function of building re-
of the buckling is a continuous function of beam sponse (i.e., demand) and is independent of the un-
deformation. However, the cost of repair of this certainty associated with the intensity of shaking or
damage is not a continuous function of flange the prediction of demand. The dispersion reflects
buckling amplitude: it makes no difference variability in construction and material quality, as
whether the buckling amplitude is 1/4 or 3/8 as well as the extent that the occurrence of damage is
the repairs will be very similar and the costs essen- totally dependent on the single demand parameter
tially identical. Conversely, modest increases in and the relative amount of knowledge or data on the
the level of damage can trigger large increments in response of the component.
construction activity and cost. For example, at an
amplitude of 1/16, no repair may be required, but
3.6 Computation of Losses, Step 5
at an amplitude of 1/8, heat straightening of the
beam flange may be required, which would require
substantial work and cost. 3.6.1 Monte Carlo procedures for loss com-
Fig. 4 presents a sample family of fragility putation
curves for a special steel moment frame connec- Monte Carlo type procedures are used to develop
tion. Three damage states are used, where the dam- mean estimates of casualties, direct economic
age states are defined using discrete and well sepa- losses and downtime as well as information on the
rated (in terms of cost) states of repair: (flange and possible variation in these losses. In Monte Carlo
web local buckling in the beam requiring heat analysis, each of the factors that affect perform-
straightening of the buckled region); ( damage and ance, namely, earthquake intensity; structural re-
lateral-torsional distortion of the beam in the hinge sponse as measured by demand parameters; dam-
region requiring heat straightening and part re- age, as measured by damage states; and
placement of the beam flange and web in the hinge consequences (losses), are assumed to be random
region and the attendant construction work to other variables, each with a specific probability distribu-
structural and nonstructural components; and (low- tion defined by a median value and a dispersion.
cycle fatigue fracture of the beam flanges in the A large set (100s) of simulations is required per
hinge region requiring replacement of a large intensity level to generate a loss curve using Monte
length of beam in the distorted/fractured region and Carlo procedures. Each simulation represents one
the attendant construction work to other structural possible outcome of the building experiencing the
and nonstructural components). given intensity of motion. The large set of simula-
Fragility curves like those of Fig. 4 plot the tions can be generated a) directly by a large number
probability that a component or system will be of analyses, or b) indirectly by statistical manipula-
damaged to a given damage state or a more severe tion of the results of a smaller number of analyses.
damage state as a function of demand, expressed The Guidelines presents one acceptable set of pro-
here using story drift ratio. Each curve is repre- cedures for generating a large number of simula-
sented by a lognormal distribution with a median tions through statistical manipulation of a relatively
(50th percentile) demand and its dispersion . The small number of structural analyses [5].
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
P(DS DSi)
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
DS1
0.2
DS2
0.1
DS3
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Story drift (% story height)
Fig. 4. Example Family of Fragility Curves for Special Steel Moment Frames [1]
54
EJSE Special Issue:
Selected Key Note papers from MDCMS 1 1st International Conference on Modern Design,
Construction and Maintenance of Structures - Hanoi, Vietnam, December 2007
Each simulation of response enables the devel- of a building being damaged to a given state, are
opment of a building damage state and the calcula- then used for the purpose of assembling single es-
tion of a single value of the performance measure timates of repair cost, casualties and downtime.
(loss). By repeating the simulations and calcula- Families of consequence functions are developed
tions many times, a distribution of loss (repair cost, for each performance measure and these families
downtime or casualties) is constructed for the cho- will generally differ across types of buildings. The
sen intensity of earthquake shaking. Sorting the general functions are complex and uncertain and
losses in ascending or descending order enables the must be simplified using heuristic procedures and
calculation of the probability that the total loss will approximations for practical implementation. A
be less than a specific value for a given intensity of sample consequence function for cost of repair is
shaking, producing a loss curve (see the sample presented in Fig. 5.
curves in Fig. 2). A loss curve can be used to de- A building damage state, for purposes of direct
termine: 1) Median performance: the number of economic loss calculations, includes a detailed de-
casualties, direct economic loss and downtime loss scription of the condition of the building in terms of
exceeded by half of the realizations; there is a 50% the required repairs. This description could be
chance that actual earthquake losses will be less given to a contractor to form the basis for an esti-
than or greater than the median; 2) Mean perform- mate of the costs to repair the building and replace
ance: the average (expected) number of casualties, the damaged contents. When a contractor makes
direct economic loss and downtime values obtained such an estimate, the unit costs applied to the vari-
from all of the realizations; and 3) Dispersion: a ous repair quantities depend on the total quantities
measure of the amount that the building perform- of basic repair measures. In some instances (e.g.
ance, as measured in casualties, direct economic scaffolding, protection of finishes, clean-up), costs
loss and downtime, can be greater or less than the are distributed to more than a single repair measure.
median values. Contractors overhead and profit depend on the to-
tal amount of work and the type of tradesmen and
3.6.2 Building damage states and conse- subcontractors required. In effect, the contractor
quence functions applies a direct economic loss consequence func-
A building damage state is developed for each tion to the damage to calculate the loss. The conse-
earthquake analysis or simulation. The building quence functions for direct economic losses use the
damage state is a complete description of the repair building damage state to determine the need for
actions required to return a building to its pre- shoring, staging, finish protection, cleaning, and
earthquake condition, the potential restrictions to other general condition costs; the costs associated
occupancy and the risks to occupant safety. It is as- with contractor overhead and profit and indirect
sembled from the story- or component-level dam- project costs including design services, fees and
age states of Step 4 using the corresponding fragil- permits as well as the costs of the actual labor and
ity functions, the vector of demands from the materials associated with the individual repairs re-
simulation, and the likelihood of total building col- quired.
lapse (for occupant risk). Consequence functions, Consequence functions for direct economic loss
which are distributions of the likely consequences should account for the effect of quantities on unit
Unit Cost, $
Max. cost
Uncertainty, c
Min. cost
55
EJSE Special Issue:
Selected Key Note papers from MDCMS 1 1st International Conference on Modern Design,
Construction and Maintenance of Structures - Hanoi, Vietnam, December 2007
0.07
Annual frequency of exceedance, (e)
0.06
0.05
0.04 e1 e2 e3 e4
0.03 1
0.02 d(e)
|
de eI1
0.01
56
EJSE Special Issue:
Selected Key Note papers from MDCMS 1 1st International Conference on Modern Design,
Construction and Maintenance of Structures - Hanoi, Vietnam, December 2007
Table 1 Elastic values of EA for the frame at grip line A calculated with Ec = 30GPa
57