Coal's death would not kill economy: Australia Institute - ABC News (Au... http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-16/coal-death-would-not-kill-eco...

AM By Peter Ryan
Updated Fri 16 Sep 2016, 10:11am

Australia's economy would not be hurt by a gradual phasing out of

coal production across the country, research suggests.

The Australia Institute-commissioned study found there would be minimal

economic impact if the Government imposed a moratorium on new coal
mines or the expansion of existing ones.

It also concluded that the managed winding back of coal production as

existing mines are depleted would be an economic blip, given the industry's
share of employment which represents 0.04 per cent of the Australian
workforce.
PHOTO: The report acknowledged that coal-reliant
regions would suffer if the industry shut. (
It estimated the economy would grow regardless of a phasing out, with a
Flickr: eyeweed)
difference of just 0.06 per cent in 2040.
MAP: Australia
Professor Philip Adams, who led the research at Victoria University's
Centre of Policy Studies, told the ABC's AM program environmental policies
to put a tax on carbon were effectively a tax on the use of coal.

"Our modelling suggests that the impacts will not start for 10 to 15 years. There is enough coal in mines that are operating
or will be operating to continue the level of exports that we see now.

"But, thereafter, coal production will slow as new mines which otherwise would come on are not allowed to come on.

"Is this a bad thing for Australia? The answer is no."

However, the study conceded that while the national economic impact would be minimal, the phasing out from coal would
be painful for regional areas relying on the industry.

Australia Institute chief economist Richard Dennis said the research was a wake-up call for the coal industry and the
Federal Government.

"Look the end of coal is nigh. The question is whether it's nigh enough," Mr Dennis told AM.

"The effect is a rounding error it's trivial. The Australian economy will still double in size in the coming decades.

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The coal industry has rejected the calls for a coal moratorium and said energy generated from coal remained critical to
Australia's economy.

Benjamin Sporton, the chief executive of the World Coal Association, said coal currently provided 41 per cent of the
world's electricity and 90 per cent on Australia's eastern seaboard.

"To try and say we're going to move away from a fuel that provides that
much of the world's electricity, I just don't think is realistic," Mr Sporton said.

"Coal is going to play a big role in the world's economy and the world's
electricity mix for decades to come and it's incredibly important that we
focus on a role for low-emission coal technology."

While Mr Dennis does not foresee the Government imposing a coal

moratorium, he said market forces would apply and history provided some
good lessons.

"The Government's decision to abandon the car industry has hurt in

Victoria. The Kennett government's decision to privatise electricity saw
10,000 jobs go back in the 1990s," he said.
SOUNDCLOUD: Peter Ryan examines coal's future
"Imagine if you heard someone say in the '90s they want to build a big new
video cassette recorder factory?"

Follow Peter Ryan on Twitter @peter_f_ryan and on his Main Street blog.

Topics: coal, climate-change, australia

First posted Fri 16 Sep 2016, 9:42am

2 of 2 13/04/2017 1:19 PM