Charanjit Singh Gill

Senior General Manager (System Planning )

Tenaga Nasional Berhad

September 2012
 Peninsular Malaysia Electricity Demand Supply Outlook for
20 years

Existing Fuel Policies

Fuel Options for Generation

Optimum Fuel Mix Determination

Way Forward

2
Peninsular Malaysia Electricity
Demand Supply Outlook For 20
Years

3
 Malaysian GDP for the first
half of 2011 grew 4.8% y-o-y,
as compared to 9.5% y-o-y in
the corresponding period last
year.

The Services sector remained

as the key driver of Malaysias
economy by recording 7.0$
growth in 3Q 2011.

The Manufacturing sector

picked its pace in 3Q 2011 by
registering a growth of 5.1%

GDP growth of between 5-6%

is expected in the medium
Source: Statistics Dept
and long term.

4
5
 Sales Growth Generation Growth Peak Demand Growth MW
Year
GWh % GWh % MW % Increase
2003 64,292 7.1% 73,795 7.1% 11,329 5.1% 546
2004 68,963 7.3% 79,022 7.1% 12,023 6.1% 694
2005 73,103 6.0% 83,303 5.4% 12,493 3.9% 470
HISTORICAL

2006 75,446 3.2% 86,472 3.8% 12,990 4.0% 497

2007 79,575 5.5% 90,283 4.4% 13,620 4.8% 630
2008 84,464 6.1% 94,370 4.5% 14,007 2.8% 387
2009 82,276 -2.6% 92,623 -1.9% 14,245 1.7% 238
2010 89,533 8.8% 100,991 9.0% 15,072 5.8% 827
2011 92,291 3.1% 103,354 2.3% 15,476 2.7% 404
2012 95,703 3.7% 106,241 2.8% 15,900 2.7% 424
2013 100,135 4.6% 110,617 4.1% 16,539 4.0% 639
2014 104,303 4.2% 114,689 3.7% 17,131 3.6% 592
2015 108,167 3.7% 118,420 3.3% 17,671 3.2% 540
2016 112,586 4.1% 123,049 3.9% 18,338 3.8% 667
2017 116,540 3.5% 127,160 3.3% 18,926 3.2% 588
2018 120,780 3.6% 131,573 3.5% 19,558 3.3% 632
FORECASTED

2019 124,788 3.3% 135,725 3.2% 20,149 3.0% 591

2020 129,482 3.8% 140,613 3.6% 20,847 3.5% 699
2021 133,640 3.2% 144,910 3.1% 21,456 2.9% 609
2022 136,832 2.4% 148,153 2.2% 21,908 2.1% 452
2023 138,201 1.0% 149,420 0.9% 22,067 0.7% 159
2024 141,227 2.2% 152,478 2.0% 22,490 1.9% 422
2025 144,188 2.1% 155,462 2.0% 22,900 1.8% 410
2026 147,082 2.0% 158,371 1.9% 23,298 1.7% 398
2027 149,909 1.9% 161,204 1.8% 23,685 1.7% 386
2028 152,668 1.8% 163,962 1.7% 24,058 1.6% 374
2029 155,358 1.8% 166,644 1.6% 24,420 1.5% 362
2030 157,980 1.7% 169,250 1.6% 24,770 1.4% 350
Average period growth rates, % pa:
2012-2015 4.2% 3.7% 3.6%
2012-2020 3.9% 3.6% 3.4%
2012-2030 2.8% 2.6% 2.5%
2015-2020 3.7% 3.5% 3.4%
2020-2030 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 6
 Sep 2011 vs Sep 2011 vs
Year
May 2011 Nov 2010
2012 -421 -421
2013 -341 -341
2014 -290 -290
2015 -221 -291
2020 -243 -380
2025 -389 -692
2030 -550 -1,047

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The plant up plan was based on an assumption of 2,000 MW capacity from
Sarawak Interconnection in 2021. If this does not materialise, the capacity
must be replaced by either coal, nuclear or LNG.
8
Generation Capacity by Fuel Type Energy Generated by Fuel Type

Distillate, 62 Oil, 2,621.50 GWh

Hydro, 1,869.8 MW Distillate, 2,623.63 GWh (2.5%) Import, 282.54 GWh
MW (2.5%) (0.3%)
(0.3%)
(8.8%) Hydro, 6,014.14 GWh
(5.8%)

Coal, 7,053.MW Gas, 12,206.8

MW Gas, 46,624.63
(33.3%)
(57.6%) Coal, 45,160.65 GWh GWh
(43.7%) (45.1%)
Existing Fuel Policies

10
 National Energy ENERGY National Green
Policy, 1979
Overall energy policy with RELATED Technology Policy
broad guidelines on long- 2010
term energy objectives
Green Technology shall be a
and strategies to ensure
driver to accelerate the
efficient, secure and
national economy and
environmentally
promote sustainable
sustainable supplies of
development.
energy.

National Depletion POLICIES Five-Fuel

Policy, 1980
aimed at safeguarding the Four-Fuel Policy, 2001
depleting oil reserves. Includes Renewable
Policy, 1981 Energy
Oil, Gas, Hydro, Coal

The present challenges may require the policies developed

previously to be reviewed and revised
11
 Reduced dependency on oil as fuel for
Four-Fuel electricity generation. Gas was promoted to
Policy replace oil for electricity generation
(1981) 4 sources for electricity generation are oil,
gas coal and hydro

Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency as

Five-Fuel the fifth fuel and to further diversify energy
Policy
base and to create a sustainable energy
(2001)
future.

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Fuel Options for Generations
- Gas

13
 Power Sector Gas Supply Agreement Volume

Volume
Plant Signed
(mmscfd)
The power sector (TNB and IPPs) has invested
GSP 113 22 September 1993
about RM 30 billion in gas-fired plants.
TNB 500 21 October 1994
Total capacity on gas is 12,207 MW
PD Power 102 27 May 1994

YTL Paka 118 15 March 1993

The contracted gas volume of 1,744 YTL PG 59 15 March 1993

mmscfd is required for full operation of the Powertek 102 1 March 1994

gas-fired plants Segari 161 17 July 1993

Pahlawan 44 30 July 1999

TNB(supp) 150 28 November 2001

However, with the current supply of gas is
GB3 114 6 September 2001
limited to 1,150 mmscfd, only limited Panglima 118 11 February 2002
plants are able to be operated by gas. Supply TTPC 106 24 January 2002
will be reinstated to 1,350 mmscfd upon PraiPowr 57 9 April 2002
commissioning of re-gasification terminal. Total 1744

With numerous curtailments in 2011, gas volume average is reduced to 924

mmscfd, about half than the total requirement
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 The higher the gas price, the higher the component of the energy
payment compared to the capacity payment
2000
Energy Payment Capacity Payment
Total Payment (RM mill/year)

1500

Energy
84%
1000 82%
79%
75%
71%
63%

Capacity
500

37% 29% 25% 21% 18% 16%

0
Gas Price RM13.70 RM19.70 RM25.70 RM31.70 RM37.70 RM43.70

New plant up of more efficient plants will reduce consumption of fossil fuels
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 Hydro
Coal
Hydro
Coal

Oil
Gas
Oil
Gas

Mainly oil (pre-1980) Mainly gas (2000s) Mainly coal (post-2015 ?)

Turning points : oil crisis (1979), discovery of natural gas (1982), gas limitation by
PETRONAS (2002), severe gas shortage (2011) 16
Fuel Options for Generations
- Coal

17
 Coal Plant Commissioning Date
Kapar U3 Manjung 3
160.00
Kapar U4 Tg Bin 1
Northwest Europe
140.00
marker price Kapar U5 Tg Bin 2

Kapar U6 Tg Bin 3
120.00
Japan steam coal import
cif price Manjung 1 Jimah 1
100.00
Manjung 2 Jimah 2

80.00
Decision (-5 yrs)
60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

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 Notes Sites are available at
Existing Plant the existing coal plants
Potential Sites
Gertak Sanggul
(brownfield)

Janamanjung
3 x 690 MW Coal
Greenfield
Bagan Sungai
developments are
Tiang

KEV
2 x 300 MW Coal
going to be more
2 x 500 MW Coal
Bagan Sungai
Pulai
challenging
Jimah Power
2 x 700 MW Coal
Tanjung Ru

Tanjung Gabang

Kampung Titib
Need to secure
Tanjung Serai Tanjung Bin
additional transmission
3 x 700 MW Coal

Tanjung Tohor right of way to the

greenfield sites
Tanjung Surat

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 Copenhagen commitment on
carbon emission intensity
reduction of 40% by 2020
Carbon Emission (tCO2/MWh)
1
Potential international 0.9

regulation on carbon 0.8

0.7
emission in the future
0.6

0.5

Development of new power 0.4

0.3
plants are subjected to
0.2
stringent Environmental 0.1
codes and regulations 0
Gas CC Coal Nuclear

Future generation options must incorporate efficient plants such as

supercritical/ultra supercritical boiler .
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 1. Indonesia
2009 9.4 mil tonnes
2010 12.4 mil tonnes
South Africa Australia Indonesia
2011 13.9 mil tonnes
13% 12% 8%
8% 15% 20%
2. Australia
2009 0.9 mil tonnes
2010 2.5 mil tonnes 79% 73% 73%

2011 3.8 mil tonnes

2009 2010 2011

3. South Africa
2009 1.6 mil tonnes
2010 2.0 mil tonnes
2011 1.47 mil tonnes

Other countries such as China, India, Japan, Korea are also looking at Indonesia for coal supply.
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 Australian Thermal Coal Price 1981-2011

Coal was stable in terms of price for decades.

Price started to increase beyond 2003 and has since climbed to new levels due to surge
in world demand.
Volatile, unsettled coal price poses big risk to TNB due to risk of no fuel cost pass
through.
Automatic fuel-cost pass through mechanism is a must to sustain viability of a power
company.
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 Low environmental emissions
1

Operate at higher efficiencies at 40 %

2

Consume less coal which results in fewer emissions per kWh

3 output (less air pollution).

Supercritical units feature a reduced through-life cost for the life

4 of the plant

Reduction of 158,000 ton/annum of CO2 emission in comparison

5 to a similar conventional power plant

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MAIN STEAM TEMPERATURE 600 oC

MAIN STEAM PRESSURE 270 bar

GROSS OUTPUT 1080 MW

NET OUTPUT 1010 MW

PLANT HEAT RATE (NET) 9045 kJ/kWh

EFFICIENCY 40 %
Total reduction = 60gCO2/kWh
REDUCTION ON CO2 Reduction is equivalent to 1.2 ton
EMISSION CO2/MWh per day at 85% dispatch
capacity factor

24
 SALIENT FEATURES SUBCRITICAL ULTRA-SUPERCRITICAL

TEMPERATURE 566 oC 600 oC

PRESSURE 165 bar 270 bar
EFFICIENCY 34 -37% 38-42%
Total Reduction = 60gCO2/kWh
REDUCTION ON CO2 EMISSION
relative to subcritical
BOILER MATERIAL
Up to Alloy Steel (T91/T92) Stainless Steel (304H)
FINAL SUPERHEATER
2 x 50% Turbine driven +
BOILER FEED PUMP 3 x 50 % Motor driven 1 x 30% motor driven
(start-up/back-up)

ROTOR TYPE Solid monobloc forging Welded rotor (HP/IP/LP)

TURBINE HOT START-UP Average 100-120 minutes Average 70 -90 minutes

OPERATING REGIME UNIT

COORDINATED from 30 80% load from 35 100% load
MODIFIED SLIDING PRESSURE

ISOLATED PHASE BUS (IPB) TYPE Natural Cool Forced Cool

Uses Boiler Drum, can do Once-through Boiler, uses

STRINGENT WATER REGIME
Blowdown Condensate Polishing Plant

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Fuel Options for Generations
- Indigenous Hydro

26
 All large hydro potential in Peninsula are utilized except for Lebir and Nenggiri.
Hydro is very much under the control of the State Governments.
Developing new hydro projects requires strong support from the State Governments
and is not as easy as before.
TERENGGANU
1.Hulu Terengganu; 250MW (2015)

PAHANG
1.Ulu Jelai; 372MW (2016)
2.Tekai; 156MW
3.Telom; 132MW
4.Raub-Bentong; 70MW

PERAK
1.Sg. Pelus; 35MW
2.Kerian-Selama; 21MW

KELANTAN
1.Lebir (multipurpose); 270MW
2.Nenggiri (multipurpose); 416MW

Total remaining hydro potential in Peninsula is less

than 2000 MW, mainly high cost peaking hydro.
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 Generation Capacity Available
Source (MW) Year

Bakun 2400 2012

Murum 900 2013 BARAM

Baram 1000 2015

Baleh 1400 2019 BAKUN

NG.
Limbang 150 2013 MERIT
MURUM
Batang Ai Extension 50 2011

Ng. Merit Coal Plant 600+1200 2013/2015 BALEH

Mukah Coal Plant 300 2010

Exp.

Bintulu CCY 110 2009

Miri CCY 110 2010

Mertjawah, Belepeh, 1000 2014 -2020

Linau, Tutoh, Ulu Ai
& Lawas

Need to review and reintroduce the subject of importing energy (hydro

and coal) from Sarawak to Peninsula.
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Fuel Options for Generations
- Renewable Energy

29
 Solar Biomass Biogas Mini-Hydro Solid Waste
Potential/Issues
Potential/Issue Potential Potential Potential
~1,340 MW by
~6,500 MW (for ~410 MW by ~490 MW by ~360 MW by
2030
40% buildings) Supply security 2028 2020 2022
Land, cloud, cost ~21,000 tonnes of
Status Status Status waste collected
Status 39 MW under 4.45 MW under 30.3 MW under every day in Msia
1 MW construction as of construction as of construction as of
MBIPV Projects July 2009 July 2009 July 2009 Status
(SURIA 1000, Biogen Project, Palm Oil Mill Run-of-river 5.5 MW
palm oil waste, Effluent (POME), scheme with commissioned as
demo/showcase
other waste livestock, agro, minimum of August 2009
projects etc.)
(woodchips, paddy industrial waste impounding
husks etc.)

Renewable Energy Is Not Able to Replace The Dominance of Fossil Fuel.

Source: Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water, Energy Commission, MBIPV Project 30
 Options for Generations
- Interconnection with ASEAN
Neighbours

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 PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
YUNNAN

Existing Interconnection
9 Peninsular Malaysia Singapore
11
Peninsular Malaysia - Thailand
10

14
13
CAMBODIA Possible Interconnection
12

7 Peninsular Malaysia Sarawak

BRUNEI
8 Peninsular Malaysia - Sumatera
15
2
P. MALAYSIA SARAWAK
3 6
4
5
1 BATAM
SINGAPORE

INDONESIA

Sarawak and Sumatera interconnections are viable options to

increase energy security.
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 Telok Gong

Garuda Sakti

Sumatera Interconnection is a technically viable option with the potential

capacity of at least 600 MW.
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Fuel Options for Generations
- The Quest for Nuclear

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 A lot of countries are having a second look at the nuclear option Germany,
Switzerland, Italy, Thailand, due to the recent incident in Fukushima, Japan

Others are forging ahead with caution, re-evaluating their existing plants

Malaysia should continue to be nuclear ready

Establishment of regulatory framework should not stop
Public education to be intensified
Feasibility study should proceed

Construction works will take 5-7 years, the tasks mentioned above are required
before we can start construction. Making Malaysia nuclear ready is essential

GO or NO-GO decision can be made when we are nuclear ready ~ 2015/2016

Is Fukushima incident a blessing in disguise?

The incident will result in improved design and better safety standard.
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Way Forward

36
Malaysias future generation capacity investment choices
depend on: Malaysias future generation capacity
investment choices depend on:
1. Malaysias overall energy security policy,
2. Malaysias willingness to rely on imported fuel
resources (e.g. Sarawak interconnection) and

3. Malaysias environmental policy (particularly with

regards to greenhouse gas emissions).

4. The choice for Nuclear must always be an option

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Thank you

38