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ENGINEERING PROBABILITY

SET THEORY

Definition:

Asetisacollectionofwell-definedobjects,calledelements.

Example1.1 Thefollowingareexamplesofsets:

a. ThemonthsoftheyearthatbeginswithletterJ

b. Thesetofengineeringdrawinginstruments

c. ThesetofPBAteamsinthisyear’sPBAseries

NamesofsetaredesignatedbyusingcapitalletterssuchasA,B,…. To indicatethatanelementbelongstoagivenset,thesymbolepsilonisused andtheepsilonforanelementthatdoesnotbelongtotheset.

Example1.2 Writethefollowingstatementsinmathematicalsymbol.

a. “4isanelementofthesetS”

Answer: 4S

b. “1isnotanelementofthesetS”

Answer: 1S.

MethodsofDescribingASet

Onewayofwritingasetisbylistingitselements,separatingthemby commas,andincludingthislistingwithinapairofbraces,{}. Thiswayof representingasetiscalledthelistingorrostermethod.

Example1.3 Describethegivensetsbyrostermethod.

a. IfAisthesetofthedaysoftheweekthatbeginwiththeletterS,then wedescribeAusingrostermethodby A={Saturday,Sunday}

b. IfBisthesetoflettersinthewordlove,then B={l,o,v,e}

c. Usingsetnotation,writethesetofdigitsthatmakeupthetelephone numberforinformation, 7155170 Answer: {0,1,5,7}

Notethatwhenweformaset,theelementswithinthesetareneverrepeated

andtheelementscanappearinanyorder.

Example1.4 {x|xisanaturalnumberbetween2and10}(read“thesetofall

elementxsuchthatxisanaturalnumberbetween2and10”)definestheset{3,

Thenotation{x|xisanaturalnumberbetween2and10}isanexampleof

writingthesetinset-buildernotation.

KindsOfSets AsetAissaidtobeasubsetofanothersetBifeveryelementofAis alsoanelementofB. Insymbol, A B.

Example1.5 Giventhesets A={1,2,3}, B={1,2,3,4,5,6,7}, C={3,5,7}

Determineifthefollowingstatementsaretrueorfalse.

a.

A B

Ans.True

b A C

Ans. False

c.

C B

Ans. True

Thetotalityofelementsunderconsiderationastheelementsofanysetisthe universalset. WedenotetheuniversalsetbythesymbolU.

OperationsOnSets

TheunionofsetsAandB,denotedbyAB,isdefinedasthesetwhose elementsareinAorinBorinbothAandB. Insymbol, AB={x|xAorxB}

Example1.6 Giventhefollowingsets:

A={x|xisapositiveevenintegerlessthan10}

B={1,3,5,7}

ThesetAB= {2,4,6,8}{1,3,5,7}={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8}

TheintersectionofAandB,denotedby AB,isdefinedasthesetwhose elementsarecommontoboth. Insymbol, AB={x|xAandxB}.

Example1.6 Giventhefollowingsets:

A={1,2,3}, B={2,3,4,5}, C={4,5} Find:

a. AB

Ans. {2,3}

b. BC

Ans. {4,5}

VennDiagram

Apictorialrepresentationofrelationsandoperationsonsetsiscalleda Venndiagram. Itusuallyshowsarectangle(whichrepresentstheuniversal set)thatincludescirclesdepictingthesubsets.

Example: Asurveyof100studentsinaparticularhighschoolrevealedthefollowing informationabouttheirenrollmentinMathematics,History,andPilipino:

26takeMathematics

65takeHistory

65takePilipino

14takeMathematicsandHistory

13takeMathematicsandPilipino

40takeHistoryandPilipino

8takeMathematics,HistoryandPilipino

(a)

HowmanystudentstakeMathematicsastheironlysubject?

(b)

Howmanystudentsdidnottakeanyofthethreesubjects?

(c)

HowmanystudentsweretakingMathematicsandHistorybutnot

Solution:

Pilipino?

Solution: Pilipino? ReferringtotheVenndiagramabove, (a) n 1

ReferringtotheVenndiagramabove,

(a)

n 1 =26–(5+8+6)=7

(b)

n 2 =100–(7+20+19+5+32+6+8)=3

(c)

n 3 =14–8=6

PERMUTATIONSANDCOMBINATIONS

FundamentalCountingPrinciple:

Ifaneventcanhappeninanyoneofpwaysandifwhenthishas occurred,anothereventcanhappeninanyoneofqways,thenthenumberof waysinwhichbotheventscanhappeninaspecifiedorderispq.

Example:Ifinclimbingacertainmountain,thereare5trailsthatcouldbe

followedingoingtothetopand4trailsingoingdown,inhowmanywayscanthe

tripbedone? Solution: Sincen 1 =5andn 2 =4,thereare5(4)=20waysinwhichsuchtrip canbedone.

Permutations:

Anarrangementofobjectsinadefiniteorderiscalledapermutationofthe objects.Thiscountingtechniqueisusuallyappliedtoproblemsaboutdigits, fillingdistinctpositionsandseatingarrangements.

Example:Taken3atatime,thelettersA,B,Chassixpermutations,namely

ABC ACB BAC BCA CAB CBA. Takentwoatatime,ithasalsosixpermutations,namely

AB

AC

BA

BC

CA

CB.

Thenumberofpermutationsofnthingstakenrattimeisgivenby

n

(

P orPnr

r

,

)

nn

(

1)(

n

2)



tor factors

n !

(

n r

)!

Example: Inhowmanywayscanthe5startingpositionsonaPBAteambe

filledwith12menwhocanplayanyofthepositions?

Solution:Forn=12andr=5,theprecedingformulaonpermutationyields

12

P

5

12!

(12 5)!

95,040ways

-0-

Thenumberofpermutationsofndistinctobjectstakennatatimeisn!,i.e.

n

P P(n,n)n!n(n1)(n2)321

n

Example: Inhowmanywayscanfourbooks(Math,English,Historyand Science)bearrangedonashelf? Solution:Using n P n withn=4,wehaveP=4!=24ways.

PermutationwithAlikeThings:

Thenumberofpermutationsofnobjectstakenaltogetherwherer 1 areof onekind,r 2 areoftheotherkindandsoonisgivenby

n

P

n

n !

r r  r

1

2

k

!

!

!

Example: ThenumberofwaysofarrangingthewordPHILIPPINESis

11

P

11

11!

3!3!

CircularPermutations:

1,108,800ways

Tofindthenumberofwaysofarrangingndifferentobjectsinacircle,we firstselectapositionforoneoftheobjects. Thentheotherscanbeplacedin

theirpositionsin(n–1)!ways.

Thenumberofcircularpermutationsofnobjectstakenaltogetheris

n

1

P

n

1

( n 1)!

Example: Inhowmanywayscan7differenttreesbeplantedinacircle? Solution: Sincen=7,thereare(7-1)!=6!=720waysofplantingthe7treesin acircle.

Combinations:

Acombinationisaselectionofobjectswithnoattentiongiventotheorder

ofarrangements.Thiscountingtechniqueisusuallyappliedtoproblemsabout

groups,committeesorcollectionswhereorderoftheelementsisnotimportant.

Thenumberofcombinationsofnobjectstakenratatimeisgivenby

n

(

C orCnr

r

,

)

n !

(

)!!

n r r

Example: Inadeckof52cards,inhowmanywayscanweselect5hearts? Solution: Thenumberofwaysofselecting5heartsoutof13heartcardsis

13

C

5

CombinationinaSeries:

13!

(13 5)!5!

1,287ways

Thetotalnumberofcombinationsofnthingstaken1,2,3,

timeis

n

C

1

n

C

2

n

C

3

n

C

n

2

n

1

,nata

Example: Aboyhas5coinseachofadifferentdenomination. Howmany differentsumsofmoneycanheform? Solution:

5

C C C C C

1

5

2

5

3

5

4

5

5

PROBABILITY

2

5

 

1

31

ThesamplespaceSforanexperimentisthesetofallpossibleoutcomes oftheexperiment. Anysubsetofasamplespaceiscalledanevent. IfAisa subsetofS,thentheprobabilityoftheoccurrenceofeventAisequaltothe numberofpossiblewaysinwhicheventAcanoccur,i.e.n(A)dividedbythe numberofpossibleoutcomesoftheexperiment,i.e.n(S).

P A

(

)

n ( A )

nS

(

)

IfA’istheeventthatAwillnotoccur,then

P

i.e.

( ')

A

n ( A ')

nS

(

)

1

P A

(

P(A)P(A')1

)

Example: Inafamilyof2children,whatistheprobabilityofhavingexactlyone boy?

Solution: Toanswerthisproblem,thetotalnumberofoutcomesmustbelisted first. ThisisthefundamentalsamplespaceS. S={B 1 B 2 ,B 1 G 2 ,G 1 B 2 ,G 1 G 2 }

Thereare4possibleoutcomesofwhichonlytwocontainexactly1boy.

ThereforeifAistheeventofhavingexactlyoneboy,then

A={B 1 G 2 ,G 1 B 2 }

( )

P A

n ( A ) 2

1

(

nS

)

4

2

ConditionalProbability:

Conditionalprobabilityistheprobabilitythatasecondeventwilloccurif thefirsteventalreadyhappened. Symbolically,conditionalprobabilityiswritten asP(A|B)andisreadastheprobabilityofeventAgiventhateventBhas occurred.Thecomputingformulaisgivenby

P(A|B)=

P A B

(

)

(

n A

B

)

PB ( )

nB ( )

whereP(A∩B)istheprobabilitythatbotheventsAandBwilloccur.

Example: Acardisdrawnfromadeckof52playingcards. Giventhatthecard drawnisafacecard,thenwhatistheprobabilityofgettingaking? Solution:LetAbetheeventofgettingafacecardandBtheeventofgettinga king.Thus

P(A|B)=

(

nB

A

)

4

1

nB ( )

12

3

MutuallyExclusiveEvents:

Twoeventsaremutuallyexclusiveiftheycannotoccuratthesame

time. LetAandBbemutuallyexclusiveevents.Then P(AB)=P(A)+P(B) where P(AB) istheprobabilitythateventAorBwilloccur. IfeventsAandBarenotmutuallyexclusive,then P(AB)=P(A)+P(B)–P(A∩B)

IndependentandDependentEvents:

TwoeventsAandBaresaidtobeindependentiftheoccurrenceofan eventAdoesnotaffecttheoccurrenceofeventB. Otherwise,theeventsare saidtobedependent. AnexampleofindependenteventsAandBiswhendrawingaball(A) fromanurnandafterreplacingthefirst,asecondballisdrawn(B). AnexampleofdependenteventsAandBiswhendrawingthefirstball (A),asecondballisdrawn(B)withoutreplacementofthefirst.

ForindependenteventsAandB,

P(AB)P(A)P(B)

IfeventBdependsoneventA,

PAB PA PB

(

)

(

)

( A )

ProbabilitiesinRepeatedTrials:

Ifpistheprobabilitythataneventwilloccurinasingletrialofanexperimentand

qistheprobabilitytheeventwillfailtooccur,thentheprobabilitythattheseeventswill

occurexactlyrtimesinntrialsis

Expectation:

n

C pq

r

r n r

Ifpistheprobabilityoftheoccurrenceofaneventinasingletrial,thenthe

expectednumberofoccurrencesorexpectationofthateventinntrialsis

definedasnp.

Ifpistheprobabilitythatapersonwillwinmpesos,hisexpectationis definedasmp. Itistheaverageamountthathewouldexpecttowininthelong run.

ReviewExercisesinEngineeringProbability

1. Acertainmechanicalpartofamachinecanbedefective becauseithasoneormoreoutof threepossibledefects:insufficienttensilestrength,aburroradiameteroutsideoftolerance

limits.Inalotof500pieces

19havetensilestrengthdefect,

17haveaburr,

11haveanunacceptablediameter,

12havetensilestrengthandburrdefects,

7havetensilestrengthanddiameterdefects,

5haveburranddiameterdefects,

2haveallthreedefects.

(a)

Howmanyhavenodefects?

(b)

Howmanypieceshaveonlyburrdefects?

(c)

Howmanypieceshaveexactlytwodefects?

2. Howmanypermutationscanbeformedfromthelettersoftheword “CONSTITUTION”?

3. Howmanyfour-placenumberscanbeformedusingthedigitsfrom1to9?

4. FindnifP(n,3)=6C(n,5).

5. Howmanynumbersof5differentdigits,eachnumbertocontain3oddand2evendigits,can

beformed1to9?

6. Adrawercontains10whiteballsand6blackballs. Whatistheprobabilityofrandomly

drawing2blackballs?

a. 0.15

b. 0.104

c. 0.125

d. 0.180

7. Twodicearerolled. Findtheprobabilitythatthesumoftheoutcomesisgreaterthan10.

8. Ninetickets,numbered1to9,areinabox. Iftwoticketsaredrawnatrandom,determinethe probabilitythatbothareodd.

9. Acommitteeofthreeistobeformedfromagroupof5menand4women. Iftheselectionis madeatrandom,findtheprobabilitythattwoaremen.

10.Threeballsaredrawnfromaboxcontaining5red,8blackand4whiteballs.Determinethe

probabilitythatallarewhite.

11.Abagcontains9ballsnumbered1to9. Twoballsarearedrawnatrandom. Findthe probabilitythatoneisevenandtheotherisodd.

12.Howmanycarscanbegivenlicenseplateshaving5-digitnumbersusingthedigits1to5with

nodigitrepeatedinanylicenseplate?

13.Acommitteeof4isselectedbylotfromagroupof6menand4women. Whatwillbethe

probabilitythatitwillconsistofexactly2menandwomen?

14.Fromabagcontaining3white,4blackand5redballs,aballisdrawn.Findtheprobability

thatitisnotred.

15.Therearefourballsofdifferentcolors. Twoballsatatimearetakenandarrangedanyway. Howmanysuchcombinationsarepossible?

a. 36

b. 3

c. 6

d. 12

16.Agirlhas6bags,11dresses,and7pairsofshoes. Inhowmanydifferentwayscanshedress up?

17.Howmanysignalscanascoutmakeoutof9bannersif3bannersarered,4areblue,and2

arewhite?

18.Afamilyoffourentersanairplanewhichhasfifteenavailableseats. Inhowmanydifferent wayscanthefamilybeseated?

19.Howmanygroupscanbemadeoutofeightboysifthegroupswillconsistof1to8boys?

20.Repetitionsallowed,findthenumberofcombinationsthatcanbeformedfromthenumbers2,

3,5,8,and9,ifeachcombinationconsistsoffivedigits?

21.Acoinistossedtwice. Whatistheprobabilitythatexactlyoneheadoccurs?

22.Adieistossed. Whatistheprobabilitythatthenumber“5”showsuporanumberlessthan

6?

23.Ifacardisdrawnfromanordinarydeck,findtheprobabilitythatitisaheartoradiamond?

24.Twocoinsaretossed. Findtheprobabilitythatthecoinsfallalikeandthefirstcoinisahead.

25.Aboxcontainstwoyellowandthreewhiteballs. Twoballsaredrawninsuccessionwithout replacements. Whatistheprobabilitythatbothareyellow?

26.Abuildinghassixoutsidedoors. Inhowmanywayscanapersonenterandleavethe buildingbyadifferentdoor?

27.Fourdifferentcoloredflagscanbehunginarowtomakeacodedsignal. Howmanysignals canbemadeifasignalconsistsofthedisplayoftwoormoreflags?

a. 60

b. 62

c. 64

d. 66

28.Inhowmanywayscansevendifferentcoloredbeadsbemadeintoabracelet?

29.Aclassconsistsof5boysand7girls.(a)Inhowmanywayscantheclasselectthepresident,

thevice-presidentandthesecretary? (b)Inhowmanywayscantheclasselect3membersof acertaincommittee?

30.Inhowmanywayscanastudentanswer5outof 8questionsifheisrequiredtoanswer3of

thefirst4questions?

31.Abagcontains3white,7black,2redand9greenballs. Ifoneballisdrawnfromthebag, whatistheprobabilitythatitwilleitherbewhiteorgreen?

a. 4/7

b. 3/8

c. 1/7

d. noneofthese

32.Astudentistakingtwoexams,oneinCalculusandanotherinPhysics. Theprobabilitythat

hewillpasstheCalculusexamis0.75andtheprobabilitythathewillfailthePhysicsexamis

0.20. Theprobabilitythathewillpassbothexamsis0.65.Whatistheprobabilitythathewill passeitheroftheexams? 33.Fromabagcontaining4blackballsand5whiteballs,twoballsaredrawnoneatatime. Find theprobabilitythatbothballsarewhite. Assumethatthefirstballisreturnedbeforethe secondballisdrawn.

34.Abagcontains3whiteand5blackballs. Iftwoballsaredrawninsuccessionwithout replacement,whatistheprobabilitythatbothballsareblack?

35.Theprobabilityofgettingheadortailintossingacoinis½. Ifacoinistossed6times,what

istheprobabilityofgettingexactly4heads?

a. 15/64

b. 5/16

ANSWERS:

c. 1/8

d. noneofthese

1.

475,2,18

11. 5/9

21. 1/2

31. a

2. 9,979,000

12. 120

22. 5/6

32. 0.9

3. 3,024

13. 3/7

23. ½

33. 25/81

4. 8

14. 7/12

24. ¼

34. 5/14

5. 7,200

15. d

25. 1/10

35. a

6. c

16. 462

26. 30

7. 1/12

17. 1260

27. a

8. 5/18

18. 32,760

28. 720

9. 10/21

19. 255

29. 1320,220

10.1/170

20. 3,125

30. 24