Honolulu Statewide Issues Poll

April 2017
 April 2017

Survey Methodology

Statewide Hawaii Survey conducted March 21-28, 2017

o N = 800 Likely Voters
o The margin of error statewide is 3.46%
o Fielded using live telephone interviewers calling both landlines and
cell phones.

Survey includes 544 responses among likely voters in

Honolulu County
o The margin of error countywide in Honolulu is 4.2%

Slide 2
 April 2017

Statewide Sentiments

Slide 3
 April 2017

More Pessimism in Honolulu County,

Mixed Views on Neighboring Islands
Do you think that things in Hawaii are going in the right direction, or do you feel that things have gotten
pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

Statewide Honolulu County Neighboring Islands

Right Direction 37% 34% 42%

-10 -16 +1

Wrong Track 47% 50% 41%

Don't Know 16% 15% 17%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Slide 4
 April 2017

Rail Transit & G.E.T. Surcharge

Slide 5
 April 2017

Voter Sentiments on Rail Transit

Do you currently support or oppose the Honolulu Rail Transit project?*

Strongly support 23%

45%
Somewhat support 22%
Support Oppose
-5
Somewhat oppose 17%
49%
Strongly oppose 32%

Don't Know/NA 6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

* Asked only in Honolulu County Slide 6
 April 2017

Support for Rail Fairly Consistent Over Time

Do you currently support or oppose the Honolulu Rail Transit project?

6/12 - 7/12 - 9/12 - 10/12 - 10/12 - 10/12 -

1/12 5/12 P1* P2* 8/12 T1 T2 T3 T4 3/13 10/13 4/14 7/16 9/16 10/16 3/17
80%

70%
-8 -3 -2 -8 -3 -16 -6 -9 -2 +5 +1 +1 -1 +9 +15 -4
60% 55% 53%
52% 51%
49% 50% 50% 49% 48% 49%
47% 48% 47% 47% 47%
50% 46%
42%
46% 47% 46% 38%
40% 44% 44% 44% 45% 44% 46% 45%
42% 42% 41%
39%
30%

20%
11%
9% 8% 9% 9% 8% 9%
10% 6% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6%
5% 5% 5%

0%

Support Oppose Undecided

* Primary Sample ONLY Slide 7
 April 2017

When Provided with Real World Choices, a Majority of Voters Favor

Building Rail to Completion and as Intended
Here are three different approaches that have been proposed for funding Honolulus rail transit system.
Please tell me which one you prefer.

Stop the project completely, tear down the 11 miles and 9 stations
already built and return $500 million to the federal government and
forfeit another billion dollars of federal funding for the project.
18%
Stop Early OR
Completely
Stop construction of the project at the Aloha Towers in downtown 31%
Honolulu which would add an additional $1.6 billion in costs and bring
the total rail project cost total to nearly $7 billion. It would limit 13%
ridership by 50% and forfeit $1.5 billion of federal funding for not
finishing the project.

Build the system as it was originally intended to Ala Moana

Center which would cost an additional $3 billion more and bring the
total rail project cost to $8.5 billion. It would create more jobs, include 60%
more riders that pay for rail, and get the full federal funding of one
and a half billion dollars as voters were promised.

None/Other/Dont Know 9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Slide 8

 April 2017

Voters Most in Support of Completing the Rail Project as Intended

Here are three different approaches that have been proposed for funding Honolulus rail transit system. Please tell me which one you prefer:
Build the system as it was originally intended to Ala Moana Center which would cost an additional $3 billion more and bring the total
rail project cost to $8.5 billion. It would create more jobs, include more riders that pay for rail, and get the full federal funding of one and a
half billion dollars as voters were promised.

Strong Democrat 79%

White voters ages 18 - 54 77%

Union members 73%

College educated men 68%

Liberal ideology 67%

Age 75+ 67%

Central Oahu 66%

Post-graduate 65%

Homeowners 63%

Men age 18 -54 63%

AJA voters 62%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Build the system as it was originally intended to Ala Moana Center (3-way choice) Slide 9
 April 2017

Voters Largely Prefer G.E.T. to Property Taxes to Fund Rail

If you had to choose, which revenue source would you prefer to fund the construction and operation of
the rail system?

Extend the existing G.E.T. surcharge, a third of which

is paid for by tourists and amounts to about $301 a 67%
year for the average Oahu resident.

Raise property taxes, which could amount to

$1,200 dollars a year for the average property 4%
owner.
GET
Surcharge -
Property
Both 1% Taxes:
+63

Neither 27%

Dont Know 1%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Slide 10
 April 2017

Alternative Funding Options are No More Popular, Raising Property

Taxes Extremely Unpopular
As part of the effort to extend the G.E.T. surcharge, the state legislature has asked the City of Honolulu to pay its fair share and raise
local taxes so that the Honolulu rail transit system is funded by federal, state and local taxes. While no one likes paying more in taxes,
here are some funding options that have been discussed. Please tell me if you support or oppose that option
Support-
Increase the motor vehicle weight tax by Oppose
one cent per pound for each of the next two 47%
calendar years, which would yield $25 million
more each year from passenger vehicles and
-2
49%
$50 million annually for heavier vehicles.

Increase the fuel tax by three cents to twenty 39%

cents per gallon of non-biodiesel fuel which -19
would raise nearly $11 million a year. 58%

Increase parking fees by as much as double

38%
in parts of downtown Honolulu, the Honolulu -21
civic center and Waikiki to three dollars an
hour, which would net up to $5 million a year. 59%

Increase property tax rates by $1,200 per 12%

-74
year which would net $250 million per year.
86%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Total Support Total Oppose Slide 11
 April 2017

Statewide Issues

Slide 12
 April 2017

TMT Support is Overwhelmingly Strong

Based on what you know, would you say you support or oppose building an advanced telescope known as the
Thirty Meter Telescope, or T.M.T., on Mauna Kea on the Big Island? (IF CHOICE) Is that strongly or somewhat?

Statewide Big Island

Strong support 51% 52%

Total Total
Support: Support:
Somewhat support 21% 16%
72% 68%

Somewhat oppose 9% 8%

Strongly oppose 14% 21%

Don't Know 5% 3%

0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 20% 40% 60% Slide 13

 April 2017

TMT Support Increasing in Recent Years Statewide

Based on what you know, would you say you support or oppose building an advanced telescope known as the
Thirty Meter Telescope, or T.M.T., on Mauna Kea on the Big Island? (IF CHOICE) Is that strongly or somewhat?

May 2015 March 2017

80%
71%
70%
62%
60%

50% +41 +48

Net Shift Since May 2015: +7
40%

30% 23%
21%
20%
18%
10% 5%
0%

Support Oppose Undecided Slide 14

 April 2017

Even Greater Increases in Support on the Big Island for TMT

Based on what you know, would you say you support or oppose building an advanced telescope known as the
Thirty Meter Telescope, or T.M.T., on Mauna Kea on the Big Island? (IF CHOICE) Is that strongly or somewhat?

May 2015 March 2017

80%

70% 68%
60%
53%
50% +14 +45
Net Shift Since May 2015: +31
40%

30% 39%
23%
20%

10%
3%
0%
8%

Support Oppose Undecided Slide 15

 April 2017

Even When Presented Arguments from Both Sides, Voters Maintain

Their Strong Preference that TMT Construction Continues
Now I would like to read you a pair of statements about the proposed T.M.T., whose construction has been delayed due to
protests. Please tell me which statement you agree with more.

Statewide Big Island

Supporters say the T.M.T. should be allowed to be built.
The sponsors of the project followed the rules and got
their permits fairly through a transparent seven-year
approval process that sought peoples opinions. The
projects sponsors have made extensive efforts to
preserve the environment and Hawaiian culture. The
project will generate hundreds of millions of dollars per
68% 62%
year and hundreds of good-paying jobs for the state and
the Big Island as well as make Hawaii a leader in science
and astronomy.

Opponents say Mauna Kea is the most important

cultural land for the Hawaiian people and constructing Supporters Supporters
a massive 18-story complex near the summit Opponents: Opponents:
desecrates this site. There are already 13 telescopes
on Mauna Kea and yet they keep adding telescopes
26% +42
31% +31
without taking any down. This project will create traffic
and threatens the aquifer which is why the state
supreme court was correct in stopping the project and
requiring it to go through the approval process again.

Both/Neither/Dont Know 6% 6%

0% 25% 50% 75% 0% 25% 50% 75%Slide 16

 April 2017

Strong Support Statewide for Allowing Death with Dignity

for Terminally Ill Patients
Generally speaking, would you say you support or oppose allowing a patient with a terminal illness to get a prescription from a doctor that
can be self-administered to end their life? (FOLLOW UP) Is that strongly (SUPPORT/OPPOSE) or somewhat (SUPPORT/OPPOSE)?

Strongly support 40%

67%
Somewhat support 27%
Support Oppose
= +39
Somewhat oppose 10%
28%
Strongly oppose 18%

Don't Know/NA 5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Slide 17
 April 2017

Death with Dignity support by party & ethnicity

Party Ethnicity
+53 +21 +62 +40 +69 -3 +29 +16
90% 90%

80% 80%
79%
74% 70% 75%
70%
67%
60% 60% 63%

57% 55%
50% 50%
51%
48%
40% 40%
39%
36%
30% 30% 34%

27%
20% 20%
21%
17%
10% 10%
7% 6%
0% 4% 0%
Dem. Non-Dem. Native Mixed
White Japanese Chinese Filipino
Hawaiian Race
Support Oppose Undecided Slide 18
 April 2017

Death with dignity support by Gender & Age

Gender Age
+42 +37 +34 +35 +48
80% 80%

70% 70%
69% 71%
60% 65% 60% 64% 65%

50% 50%

40% 40%

30% 30%
28% 30% 30%
27%
20% 20% 23%

10% 10%
4% 7% 6% 5% 7%
0% 0%
Men Women 18-49 50-64 65+
Support Oppose Undecided Slide 19
 April 2017

Voters Split on Allowing Vacation Rentals in Residential

Neighborhoods, Opposition is More Intense Than Support
Do you support or oppose allowing people to use their homes or apartments for short-term vacation rentals
in residential neighborhoods? (IF CHOICE) Is that strongly or somewhat?

Strongly support 17%

49%
Somewhat support 32%
Support Oppose
= +3
Somewhat oppose 18%
46%
Strongly oppose 28%

Don't Know/NA 5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Slide 20
 April 2017

Voters Most Likely to Oppose Short-term Vacation

Rentals in Residential Neighborhoods
AJA women 70%

AJA voters over age 50 54%

Voters age 40-49 62%

Non-college educated women 56%

Native Hawaiians 55%

Maui voters 55%

Renters 54%

Union households 52%

Urban & Central Oahu voters 50%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Oppose short-term vacation rentals in residential neighborhoods
* Denotes small sample size. Slide 21
 April 2017

Voters overwhelmingly want companies like Airbnb to ONLY list

units that are legal and compliant with local laws
As you may know, the Hawaii state legislature is currently considering legislation that would require companies like Airbnb, who market short-
term vacation rental listings online, to collect taxes on homes or investment properties available for short-term rental purposes. Airbnb claims the
state is missing out on nearly $75 million annually in tax revenue it could be collecting from short-term rentals. However, neighborhood groups
say passing a law that allows companies like Airbnb to collect taxes without ensuring the listing is legal circumvents county land use laws that
may limit the number of short-term rentals in residential neighborhoods. Knowing this, please tell me which of the following statements you agree
with more. (ROTATE STATEMENTS)

Require short term rental companies like Airbnb to only list units that are legal
and collect taxes from rentals only if they can verify that the property owner has 75%
a valid permit and is in compliance with local laws.

Allow short term rental companies like Airbnb to list and collect taxes on
residential rentals through their website, even if the property owner does not 17% w/ Compliance
have a valid permit and is NOT in compliance with local laws.
w/o Compliance
+58
Both 1%

Neither 4%

Dont Know 4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Slide 22

 April 2017

For More Information About This Poll,

Contact:
Ben Tulchin, Corey ONeil, Kiel Brunner and David
Kornahrens
(415) 576-1072
ben@tulchinresearch.com
corey@tulchinresearch.com
kiel@tulchinresearch.com
david@tulchinresearch.com
www.tulchinresearch.com

220 Sansome St. Suite 1360

San Francisco, CA 94104

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www.twitter.com/TulchinResearch www.facebook.com/TulchinR

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