Litros de leche recibidos en todos los aos

AOS
1 2000
2 2001
3 2002
4 2003
5 2004
6 2005
7 2006
8 2007
9 2008
10 2009
11 2010
12 2011
13 2012
14 2013
15 2014
cibidos en todos los aos

LITROS DE LECHE VENTAS

70,200 112,320,000 LITROS D
68,000 108,800,000
43,000 68,800,000 900,000
47,500 76,000,000 800,000
58,200 93,120,000 700,000
3,500 5,600,000 600,000
20,000 32,000,000 500,000
31,200 49,920,000 400,000
39,000 62,400,000 300,000

110,000 176,000,000 200,000

180,000 288,000,000 100,000

300,000 480,000,000 0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2
480,000 768,000,000
420,000 672,000,000
800,000 1,280,000,000
 LITROS DE LECHE
0
0
0
0
LITROS DE LECHE
0
0
0
0
0
0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
 AOS VENTAS
1 2000 112,320,000
2 2001 108,800,000
3 2002 68,800,000
4 2003 76,000,000
5 2004 93,120,000
1,400,000,000
6 2005 5,600,000
1,200,000,000
7 2006 32,000,000
1,000,000,000
8 2007 49,920,000
800,000,000
9 2008 62,400,000 Axis Title 600,000,000
10 2009 176,000,000
400,000,000
11 2010 288,000,000
200,000,000
12 2011 480,000,000
0
13 2012 768,000,000 19
14 2013 672,000,000
15 2014 1,280,000,000
 VENTAS
1,400,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,000,000,000
800,000,000 VENTAS
Axis Title 600,000,000 Linear (VENTAS)
400,000,000
200,000,000
0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Axis Title
VENTAS
Linear (VENTAS)
PERIODO AOS LITROS DE LECHE
1 2000 70,200
2 2001 68,000
3 2002 43,000
4 2003 47,500
5 2004 58,200
6 2005 3,500
7 2006 20,000
8 2007 31,200
9 2008 39,000
10 2009 110,000
11 2010 180,000
12 2011 300,000
13 2012 480,000
14 2013 420,000
15 2014 800,000
16 2015
17 2016
18 2017
19 2018
20 2019

PERIODO AOS LITROS DE LECHE

1 2000 70,200
2 2001 68,000
3 2002 43,000
4 2003 47,500
5 2004 58,200
6 2005 3,500
7 2006 20,000
8 2007 31,200
9 2008 39,000
10 2009 110,000
11 2010 180,000
12 2011 300,000
13 2012 480,000
14 2013 420,000
15 2014 800,000
16 2015
17 2016
18 2017
19 2018
20 2019
PROMEDIO MOVIL

57,380
44,040
34,440 Media mvil
32,080
900,000
30,380 800,000
40,740 700,000
76,040 600,000
500,000
132,040 400,000
221,800 Valor 300,000
298,000 200,000
100,000
436,000 0
500,000
566,667
610,000 Punto de datos
800,000

PROMEDIO MOVIL

57,380
44,040
34,440
32,080
30,380
40,740
76,040
132,040
221,800
298,000
436,000
400,000
340,000
244,000
160,000
Media mvil

Real
Pronstico

Punto de datos
 AOS LITROS DE LECHE precio
1 2000 70,200 112,320,000
2 2001 68,000 108,800,000
3 2002 43,000 68,800,000
4 2003 47,500 76,000,000
5 2004 58,200 93,120,000
6 2005 3,500 5,600,000
7 2006 20,000 32,000,000
8 2007 31,200 49,920,000
9 2008 39,000 62,400,000
10 2009 110,000 176,000,000
11 2010 180,000 288,000,000
12 2011 300,000 480,000,000
13 2012 480,000 768,000,000
14 2013 420,000 672,000,000
15 2014 800,000 1,280,000,000
 periodo ao unidades
1 2010 180,000 288,000,000
2 2011 300,000 480,000,000
3 2012 480,000 768,000,000
4 2013 420,000 672,000,000
5 2014 800,000 1,280,000,000
436,000
2,616,000 3,488,000,000

900,000

800,000

700,000
f(x) = 135999.999999988x - 273195999.999975

600,000

500,000
Column J
400,000 Linear (Column J)

300,000

200,000

100,000

0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

a b x
y = a + bx 436000 136000 6
Y(6) 2015 1252000
Column J
Linear (Column J)

816000
 2007 50000
2008 50500
2009 52300
2010 53000
2011 53700

54000
f(x) = 989.9999999999x - 1937009.99999983
53000

52000
Column F
51000
Linear (Column F)
50000 Linear (Column F)

49000

48000
2006 2008 2010 2012
 4
2010 180,000
12500 2011 300,000
2012 480,000
2013 420,000
2014 800,000

436,000

1,000,000

800,000

600,000 f(x) = 135999.999999988x - 273195999.999975

Column K
400,000 Linear (Column K)
200,000

0
2005 2010 2015
99988x - 273195999.999975
Column K
Linear (Column K)

5
 AO CDIGO GRUPO ENE FEB
2001 10103010 G1 938 3,205
2002 10103010 G1 1,234 3,446
2003 10103010 G1 1,623 3,960
2004 10103010 G1 2135 4771
1664

AO CDIGO GRUPO ENE FEB MAR

2001 10103010 G1 938 3,205 2,855
2002 10103010 G1 1,234 3,446 3,172
2003 10103010 G1 1,623 3,960 4,014
2004 10103010 G1 2135 4771 4510
1801 4263 4094

tiempo promedio movil 3 aos

periodos ponderacion
ultimo ao 0.5
hace dos aos 0.3
hace tres ao 0.2
1
 periodos aos unidades valos x ventas
1 2010 180,000 ###
2 2011 300,000 ###
3 2012 480,000 ###
4 2013 420,000 ###
5 2014 800,000 ###

MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL

2,855 4,690 3,894 1,885 3,468
3,172 5,719 5,334 2,217 3,986
4,014 7,238 5,993 2,519 4,745
4510 9047 6658 2738 5392
4059 3899 7335 5995 2491

ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC

4,690 3,894 1,885 3,468 1,669 627 914 1,815 2,054
5,719 5,334 2,217 3,986 2,195 746 1,251 2,240 2,282
7,238 5,993 2,519 4,745 2,310 877 1,421 2,799 2,852
9047 6658 2738 5392 2999 1138 1652 3731 3395
7839 6194 2568 4917 2632 981 1503 3153 3010
 AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC
1,669 627 914 1,815 2,054
2,195 746 1,251 2,240 2,282
2,310 877 1,421 2,799 2,852
2999 1138 1652 3731 3395
4708 2501 920 1441 2923
2843
 PERIOD MONTHS SUGAR EXPORT
2016 JANUARY 70,200
2016 FEBRUARY 68,000
2016 MARCH 43,000
2016 APRIL 47,500
2016 MAY 58,200
2016 JUNE 3,500
2016 JULY 20,000
2016 AUGUST 31,200
2016 SEPTEMBER 39,000
2016 OCTOBER 110,000
2016 NOVEMBER 180,000
2016 DECEMBER 300,000
2017 JANUARY 480,000
2017 FEBRUARY
2017 MARCH
2017 APRIL
2017 MAY
2017 JUNE

PERIODO AOS LITROS DE LECHE

1 2000 70,200
2 2001 68,000
3 2002 43,000
4 2003 47,500
5 2004 58,200
6 2005 3,500
7 2006 20,000
8 2007 31,200
9 2008 39,000
10 2009 110,000
11 2010 180,000
12 2011 300,000
13 2012 480,000
14 2013 420,000
15 2014 800,000
16 2015
17 2016
18 2017
19 2018
20 2019
 FORECAST

48,400
40,033 SUGAR EXPORT FORECA
33,900 600,000
33,233 500,000
43,650 400,000
63,950 300,000
113,367 200,000
190,033 100,000
221,800 0
267,500
320,000
390,000

MONTHS

PROMEDIO MOVIL

57,380
44,040
34,440
32,080
30,380
40,740
 76,040
132,040
221,800
298,000
436,000
400,000
340,000
244,000
160,000
XPORT FORECAST

Real
Pronstico

THS
 60,000
PERIOD YEAR DEMAND
1 2012 ## 50,000
2 2013 #
3 2014 # 40,000
4 2015 # 33
28,505
5 2016 # 30,000
23,531
6 2017 #
18,915
7 2018 # 20,000
12,867
8 2019 # 8,967
9 2020 # 10,000
10 2021 #
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20

DESIGN OF DEM

DEMAND FORECAST
YEAR QUANTITY
2012 8,967
2013 12,867
2014 18,915
2015 23,531
TOTAL SALES 64,280
MINIMUM STOCK 16,070
SAFETY STOCK 6,581
MAXIMUM STOCK 22,651
AVERANGE % 40.95%

INVENTORY FORECAST
YEAR QUANTITY
2012 12,715
2013 17,930
2014 25,140

TOTAL SALES 55,785

MINIMUM STOCK 18,595
SAFETY STOCK 5,370
MAXIMUM STOCK 23,965
AVERANGE % 28.88%

PERIOD 2016
MINIMUM STOCK 21,564
SAFETY STOCK 6,967
MAXIMUM STOCK 28,531
AVERANGE % 32.31%

PERIOD 2018
MINIMUM STOCK 25,679
SAFETY STOCK 3,569
MAXIMUM STOCK 29,248
AVERANGE % 13.90%

PERIOD 2020
MINIMUM STOCK 30,175
SAFETY STOCK 3,280
MAXIMUM STOCK 33,455
AVERANGE % 10.87%

DEMAND COST/UNIT COST YEAR

1 15,000 $ 14,500 $ 217,500,000
2 8,500 $ 10,850 $ 92,225,000
3 6,750 $ 3,950 $ 26,662,500
4 5,782 $ 1,000 $ 5,782,000
5 2,150 $ 1,250 $ 2,687,500
6 645 $ 3,300 $ 2,128,500
7 950 $ 1,200 $ 1,140,000
8 325 $ 2,550 $ 828,750
9 250 $ 3,300 $ 825,000
10 397 $ 500 $ 198,500
TOTAL ###
 53,375
48,401
43,427
38,453
33,479
28,505
23,531
Column I
915
Linear (Column I)

14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

DESIGN OF DEMAND
ANNUAL VOLUME CUMULATIVE VOLUME ABC CLASIFICATION

62.15% 62.15% A
26.35% 88.50% B
7.62% 96.12% C
1.65% 97.77% C
0.77% 98.54% C
0.61% 99.15% C
0.33% 99.47% C
0.24% 99.71% C
0.24% 99.94% C
0.06% 100.00% C
100%