Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
80.0
6.6 million 8.3 million
70.0
4.9 million 57.7
64.7
60.0
50.0 44.3
Percentage (%)
40.0
28.2
30.0
23.8 24.8
19.0
20.0
9.0 8.8 6.8
10.0
3.3 3.9 1.2 2.6 1.0
0.5 0.2 0.2
0.0
60 50
20 20
10 10
0
0
Oilseed
Fodder
Cotton
Grains
Sugarcane
Other crops
Wheat
Pulses
Orchards
Vegetables
Oilseed
Fodder
Cotton
Vegetables
Wheat
Pulses
Sugarcane
Orchards
Other crops
Grains
1990 2010
1990 2010
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Wheat Rice Maize
Barani Punjab Rice/Wheat Punjab Mixed Punjab Cotton/Wheat Punjab
Low Intensity Punjab Cotton/ Wheat Sindh Rice/ Other Sindh Southern KPK
KPK Plains/Foothills Balochistan
Seed Fertilizer
High yield, disease free Adverse impact on fertilizer
certified seed to meet huge use due to price hikes incl. gas
yield gap Nutrient mix unbalanced
Farmers lack of awareness in
Adherence to safe seed optimal use and traditional
replacement cycles preference for nitrogenous
Distorted relative prices
Certified and improved seed Limited or no soil testing
Unregulated burgeoning Adulteration and Timely
seed Industry with little or Availability
no R&D capacity IPR Increasing subsidies since
issues 2009-2010
Rs 500 per 50 kg potash
Breeders Act, Seed Act, Rs 1400 per 50 kg on urea
Seed Policy Total Rs. 14.5 bln
Public private-partnerships Plus 50 % subsidy on price of
gas
Some Key Agricultural Input Policy Issues
(contd.)
Farm Mechanization Water
Fluctuating availability from surface and
ground water sources between 122
Traditional bias against MAF in 1998 and 138 MAF in 2010
Seasonal variation and climate change
mechanization as labor Water reservoirs deplete to
displacing etc. minimal levels in December to
February when water requirements
Credit and capital for wheat otherwise a low delta
constraints crop are largest
Policy Distortions and biases towards
2011 estimate 0.9 hp per ha high delta crops sugarcane, rice and
as against FAO maize
System losses, water delivery efficiency
recommendation of 1.4 hp and on farm water use efficiency
Subsidy - elite capture and Low O&M, political interference, theft
and corruption
political misuse Increasing non-farm water use
Developing market for Pricing, distribution, maintenance and
water users
mechanization services
Rain fed Areas Issues
Some Key Agricultural Input Policy Issues (contd.)
Government
Senate National Assembly
Ministry
C
B Long route of accountability
D
Services - Benefits from
research activities
250
billion (2009-10) Rupees
200
150
100
50
-
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
* Possible financial loss for each year is calculated as the domestic procurement price plus the
cost of incidentals minus the release price, times the quantity of domestic procurement.
Possible Financial Losses* on
Domestic Wheat Procurement and Sales
45
40
35
billion (2009-10) Rupees
30
25
20
15
10
5
-
Financial Loss
* Possible financial loss for each year is calculated as the domestic procurement price plus the
cost of incidentals minus the release price, times the quantity of domestic procurement.
Wheat Procurement, Unit Subsidy and Total
Subsidy 2006-06 to 2012-13
* Possible financial loss for each year is calculated as the domestic procurement price plus the
cost of incidentals minus the release price, times the quantity of domestic procurement.
Wheat Procurement, Unit Subsidy and Total Subsidy
2006-06 to 2012-13
60 10,000
9,000
50
8,000
7,000
40
6,000
30 5,000
4,000
20
3,000
2,000
10
1,000
- 0
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
Page 34
Pakistan: Initial and Estimated
Peak Wheat Stocks* 1991-92 to 2013-14
12
10
8
(million tons)
0
1997-98
2007-08
1991-92
1993-94
1995-96
1999-00
2001-02
2003-04
2005-06
2009-10
2011-12
2013-14
Initial Stocks Intial Stocks + Domestic Procurement
* Peak wheat stocks are estimated as end-April stocks plus May-June domestic procurement.
Price(Rs/kg)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Import Parity(Lahore)
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
and Support Prices of Wheat
Jan-13
Procurement Price
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Pakistan: Nominal Wholesale, Import Parity
Real Wholesale and Procurement Prices of Wheat
2002-2014
70
60
50
Rs (2012) / kg
40
30
20
10
0
Jul-03
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-03
Real wheat prices rose in early 2014 to levels near 2009 highs, but have
since declined. Nonetheless, they are still higher than average levels for
Domestic and International Wheat Prices
Government interventions in domestic wheat markets
generally make private international trade (wheat imports or
exports) unprofitable.
In terms of price formation, wheat generally behaves as a non-
traded good, with domestic prices not directly linked to
international prices.
500
400
(US$/ton)
300
200
100
0
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jul-02
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jan-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Lahore Wholesale Price Import Parity(Lahore) Support Price
Note: December 2014 US HRW#2 wheat price was $291/ton (fob Gulf); $325/ton c&f Karachi.
Current International Wheat Prices
In mid-2010, international wheat prices
increased sharply and have remained at a level
of about $400/ton import parity (Lahore)
through the end of 2014.