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We end this section of the book, on case studies, with an area in which
some of the applications of nonlinear dynamical approaches must be
regarded as speculative. We begin with an overview of the appeal of
nonlinear dynamics for psychology, and then discuss in more depth the
dynamics of mood swings and schizophrenia symptoms, and the ability
of humans to predict future values of chaotic sequences. Readers
interested in pursuing this general area further might want to peruse
some recent copies of the journal Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and
Life Sciences, published by the Society for Chaos Theory in Psychology
and Life Sciences.
The ideas of nonlinear dynamics and chaos have great appeal for
those attempting to place psychological constructs on a mathematical
foundation. The idea that seemingly complex behavior can be exhibited
by a rather simple system, following deterministic and therefore
explicable rules, provides hope that often convoluted and inexplicable
human behavior might also follow some comprehensible rules. The
dynamical notions of stability, complexity, and especially chaos, are
appealing metaphors for the constant change and apparent self-
organization that are frequently seen in the behavior of individuals and
groups. These behaviors exhibit many of the qualities that we have seen
in chaotic systems: changes in response that are not proportional to
changes in a control variable, uncertainty and unpredictability, and
sensitivity to initial conditions such that repetition of identical stimuli
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between the patients and the normal control subjects, with more changes
in pattern in the patients. Visual examination of two-dimensional state
space (time-delay plots) also show a difference between normals and
patients. /
There are broadband frequency spectra from the data in both groups,
although the spectra are flatter in normals, indicating long-term
correlations, which might be either chaotic or random (see Chapter 13).
Correlation dimension estimates converged only for six of the seven
patients; that is, the dimension estimate reached a plateau as embedding
dimension increased. This was true for none of the normal control
subjects. Patient dimensions ranged from 1.1 to 4.8. Although this is a
troublingly large range if attempts to model the underlying dynamics are
to be made, at least dimension estimates could be found for the patients.
This is the main result of the study, the implications of which are
discussed below.
A number of procedures were used to validate these findings. The
authors checked for variation in the dimension as a function of the time
delay (L) used in the attractor reconstruction. Although relatively
constant, the dimension in most patients spanned an integer value, which
the authors rightly interpreted to mean that the dynamics are not
necessarily chaotic but might instead reflect noisy periodicities or quasi-
periodicities (see Chapter 1). They also checked the data for stationarity,
visually with recurrence plots, to ascertain that there was not significant
change due to patient treatment over the course of the examined time
series. Three types of surrogates were also tested (see Chapter 6):
random-shuffle, phase-randomization, and amplitude-adjusted Fourier
transform (AAFT). In all cases the surrogates did not yield dimension
Case Study - Psychology 305
estimating spatial or temporal intervals has a 1// form. This does not
necessarily indicate the presence of chaos but is related to concepts in
Chapter 13 on temporal structure and long-term correlations.
In closing, recall from Chapter 4 that an attractor can be reconstructed
from discrete-event spike-train data, which will reflect the underlying
continuous dynamics that trigger the spikes (with some reasonable
assumptions on the integrate-to-fire mechanism). Thus it might be better
to examine patient and other psychological data, which has been highly
discretized (into a small number of categories), as discrete events, the
times of which coincide with the rating exceeding a certain critical value.