P Overall = P imm + (1-P imm) * P Delay

Immediate
Delayed
ignition
Ignition

0.01

4.65E-04

0.139899

(1- P imm)
0.99

0.860101

JF 4.65E-06 1.00%
FF 3.86E-05 8.31%
EXP 2.58E-05 5.54%
Toxic 3.96E-04 85.15%
Total 4.65E-04
 P Overall P
P imm Pi
P del Pd

IP Report:

P imm : P del = 30 : 70
4.65E-06
JF P imm : P del = 50 : 50

3.86E-05
0.6 Flash Fire

0.4 Explosion Flash Fire : Ex

2.58E-05
60
70

50
Toxic cloud
3.96E-04
 example

0.15
0.01 Assumption
0.139899

: 70

50

Flash Fire : Explosion (60:40)

60: 40
70 : 40

50 : 50
P Overall = P imm + (1-P imm) * P Delay

Immediate
Delayed
ignition
Ignition

0.045

4.65E-04

0.105

(1- P imm)
0.955

0.895

JF 2.09E-05 4.50%
FF 2.80E-05 6.02%
EXP 1.87E-05 4.01%
Toxic 3.97E-04 85.47%
Total 4.65E-04
 P Overall P
P imm Pi
P del Pd

IP Report: (30:70)

P imm : P del = 30 : 70
2.09E-05
JF P imm : P del = 50 : 50

2.80E-05
0.6 Flash Fire

0.4 Explosion Flash Fire : Explos

1.87E-05
60: 40
70 : 40

50 : 50
Toxic cloud
3.97E-04
 example

0.15
0.045
0.105

: 70

50

Flash Fire : Explosion

60: 40
70 : 40

50 : 50
 Probability of
ignition

Gas Liquid
Leak Size Leak Rate (Kg/s)
Minor <1 0.01 0.01
Major 1 -50 0.07 0.03
Massive > 50 Kg/s 0.3 0.08

Probability of
Gas Explosion given
Leak Size Leak Rate (Kg/s) Ignition
Minor <1 0.04
Major 1 -50 0.12
Massive > 50 Kg/s 0.3
Flash Fire : Explosion

60: 40
70 : 40

50 : 50